Cheap Seat Chronicles
by: tkatt00
So Long Santana...
Jan 29, 2008 | 7:32PM | report this

It’s a dark day in Minnesota, but a bright future is on the horizon.

Tuesday’s trade of ace Johan Santana to the Mets for outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra is being viewed as drastically lopsided right now, but let’s not forget the Frank Viola, Chuck Knoblauch and AJ Pierzynski trades all looked one-sided at the time as well.

I’ve written plenty about Johan Santana this winter and I’ve spent way too much time dreaming up improbable scenarios where he re-signed with the Twins and led them to multiple World Series titles. The simple fact of the matter is that one pitcher cannot and will not win his team the World Series. A stellar ace is always a plus, but he can’t pitch every game, thus why the Twins--in the long run--are poised to benefit most from this trade.

Any time you gain four players with high ceilings and limited miles on the tires, it’s a positive thing. Here’s a look at what the Twins are getting out of the deal.

Gomez could take over in CF for the Twins...Carlos Gomez, OF: The most Major League-ready of the pack, Gomez retained rookie status in 2007 because of a broken bone in his left hand in July, which sidelined him for two months after he made his Major League debut in May. At 21, he was the youngest player in the National League at the time.

Before his call-up, Gomez had been somewhat overlooked when discussing Mets outfield prospects because of all the talk surrounding teenage sensation Fernando Martinez. But Gomez had cruised through the organization, skipping from Class A Hagerstown in 2005 to Double-A Binghamton in 2006, showing no apparent need for some time at Advanced A. He hit .281 with 41 steals in the Eastern League at age 20. He has all the tools you look for in a premier outfielder, with the speed for center and the arm for right. He was hitting .286 at Triple-A New Orleans with 17 steals before his spring promotion, and then batted .232 with 12 more swipes in 125 at-bats with the Mets before his injury.

The Twins' current outfield mix features Michael Cuddyer, newly acquired Delmon Young, Jason Kubel and veteran Craig Monroe battling for corner spots and Jason Pridie and Denard Span in the mix for the opening in centerfield. Look for Gomez to charge right into that pack to make a claim for one of the spots, most likely centerfield.

Philip Humber, RHP: With a strong spring, Humber could factor into the wide-open, but still competitive, battle for a Twins rotation spot. Drafted out of Rice University with the third-overall pick in 2004 and signed for a $3 million bonus, his pro career got off to a sluggish start as he posted a 4.99 ERA at Class A Advanced St. Lucie in 2005 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. He's yet to really come back in pre-surgery form, but his trademark curveball is still a plus pitch.

He spent most of '07 in New Orleans, where he was 11-9 with a 4.27 ERA in 25 starts, striking out 120 batters in 139 innings. He finished the summer with three games in New York, posting a 7.71 ERA in seven innings. He is no longer the untouchable can't-miss prospect he was when he signed in '04, but at 25 years old and now two years removed from his surgery, 2008 could be a big one for him.

Kevin Mulvey, RHP: Though his name is not generally mentioned in the same breath as the elite pitching prospects in the Mets system (Guerra, Humber and Mike Pelfrey), Mulvey is no slouch either. Drafted out of Villanova in the second round with the Mets' first pick in 2006, he appeared in just a handful of games that summer before earning the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors in 2007. A Futures Game selection and Eastern League All-Star, the 22-year-old went 11-10 with a 3.32 ERA at Double-A Binghamton before finishing his season with one scoreless start at Triple-A New Orleans. Without one dominating pitch, he mixes four solid offerings highlighted by his slider with good control. He is likely to begin 2008 at Triple-A Rochester and a strong first half could keep his name on people's lips should the need for a starter arise.

Guerra could be the steal of this trade...Deolis Guerra, RHP: The 6-foot-5 Venezuelan prospect, who won't turn 19 until April, ranked just behind the apparently untouchable outfielder Fernando Martinez when it comes to Mets prospects, but he is likely to be the last to arrive in Minnesota. When he gets there, however, it should be for good.

Guerra made his pro debut in stellar style in 2006 when, at age 17, he posted a 2.20 ERA at Class A Hagerstown, limiting South Atlantic League hitters to a .208 average. In '07, still at 17, he was the Opening Day starter for Class A Advanced St. Lucie and pitched in the Futures Game as well. He battled some shoulder tendonitis, which limited his innings, but posted a 4.01 ERA in 90 innings in the Florida State League with a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s and a plus changeup, which ranked as the best in the Mets' system. He continues to work on improving his curveball and refining his overall game.

While he could start the season at Double-A New Britain, it is more likely that the Twins will opt to keep him back in warmer climate of Fort Myers, Fla., before sending him to the Eastern League later in the summer.


…at this point it’s too soon to tell who will ultimately get the better end of this trade. Twins fans have lost a lot of fan favorites this off-season and the loss of Santana only further amplifies the direction the team appears headed in the near future, however, the trade does leave the fans with hope that within a few years time the Twins could be contenders again.

Best of luck to Johan in New York, but as always…

GO TWINS!!

14 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Johan Santana, Minnesota Twins, Baseball, MLB, Hot Stove, Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, New York Mets, Trade, tkatt00, Cheap Seat Chronicles
 
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1builder
Jan 30, 2008
8:12 AM
I hate to see Johan go, but we all knew it was inevitable. There was no way we would have been able to resign him, so take what you can get and run. What the twins got doesn't seem like much, but you should never doubt the twins scouts or skills at evaluating talent. I think they know what they are getting and make it all look good in the long run.

bamaboy22
Jan 30, 2008
8:41 AM
I hope Johan goes on to dominate in the NL, and even though he is gone, at least it is the other league so he won't return to Minny and mow us down. Fans may not be thrilled about this deal now, but given time with our great pitching coaches they should develop nicely (knock on wood.) As long as the pressure to live up to Johan's stardom is not placed on Gomez, he should be fine.

Moosyone
Jan 30, 2008
8:55 AM
I still wonder if there's something wrong with Santana's arm. If you look at his last 7 starts last season looks like this: 44 IP, 25 ER, 5.11 ERA!, & 44 SO's. He also wasn't throwing his great slider, only fastballs and change-ups. Maybe he just had a minor problem and knew he had the offseason to recover, but at the price the Mets are paying, they better HOPE it's nothing major. IF he's his normal self, he should dominate even more in the NL pitching to pitchers instead of DH's ought to increase his strikeouts enough to where he might get close to 300 for the next few years. You really can't tell who gets the better of a trade until at least 2-3 seasons after it happens. I'm just glad the Yankees didn't get him!

gcoach
Jan 30, 2008
9:13 AM
My guess is that there is nothing wrong with his arm. The Twins offered him something like 80 million for 4 years. He wanted to move on. Granted that other trades have looked slim in the beginning but paid off after a few years but this one looks plain bad...especially in light of what they could have gotten from Red Sox. A little bit future and a little bit now. These guys are definately down the road players if they are going to be anything at all. Time will tell.

tkatt00
Jan 30, 2008
9:35 AM
The major reason Santana's numbers ballooned at the end of last season was because he simply cut down on throwing the slider.

The Twins were out of the race by then and it was a lost season. It makes perfect sense. Sometimes teams that are out of contention will go ahead and shut a player down all together to avoid overworking the arm or risking injury when the games don't matter.

No injury-conspiracy theory for Santana. Just taking it easy on the arm down stretch. Perfectly logical when your team has been out of the race since May.

WriterWithWryWit
Jan 30, 2008
9:47 AM
Golden observations.

Kunk
Jan 30, 2008
10:00 AM
no matter how this ends up in the long run I can't help but hate the way it went down. The Twins end up against the wall and Santana basically says to the organization F-off trade me now or it isn't going to happen. Well thanks Santana for all the years and I appreciate the loyalty. here is my Twins agnst coming out. I wish we could have kept him but being the highest paid pitcher in baseball is more important than being a part of a young team that is going to contend. Here's to hoping the Mets blow it out there ####for years to come.

Geminiman
Jan 30, 2008
12:45 PM
Now what will CC cost the tribe.

TK8791
Jan 30, 2008
12:56 PM
So long to the Golden Goose for the Twinkies

4everRED
Jan 30, 2008
2:41 PM
tkat00- nice analysis. Looks like the Twins may come out OK with this. With so many naysayers out there (including Rosenthal), I have to laugh. Only time will tell. I am reminded of when the Reds traded Dave Parker to the A's. ALL of the national and local media said they received "ABSOLUTELY NOTHING" back in the deal (only future World Series MVP JOSE RIJO!).

dscbubba
Jan 30, 2008
5:45 PM
I THINK THE TWINS DID THE BEST THEY COULD CONSIDERING THE SHENANIGANS THAT JOHAN PLAYED, HOLDING THEM HOSTAGE. I THINK NO TRADE CLAUSES SHOULD BE OUTLAWED, SO THIS COULD NOT HAPPEN. GOOD LUCK TWINS. BY THE WAY WHAT MINNESOTA COLLEGE DID YOU GO TO?

ALLEN IN SAN DIEGO

Last edited by dscbubba on January 30th at 5:49 PM.

dje22
Jan 30, 2008
6:23 PM
twins should go after bedard with the money they offered Yohan

Teton2
Jan 30, 2008
9:24 PM
Another sad day in baseball. I can't see somebody leaving a team of freinds, that have all been together thru thick and thin. $80,000,000 is more than anybody can ever spend, to throw this all away for a few more million bucks, reeks of prostitution.

Wright5
Feb 1, 2008
4:02 PM
Welcome to NY JOHAN SANTANA!!

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ABOUT ME


tkatt00
I am a 24-year-old aspiring baseball writer. I grew up to stories of Willie Mays, the Miracle Mets and the Bronx Zoo from my father. Although my playing days never amounted to much, baseball has always remained my passion. I recently moved to Boston from the midwest and I am enjoying the hype and hysteria of living at the heart of Red Sox Nation. As you can tell from my avatar the Twins are my team, a result of being born and raised in Iowa and attending college in Minnesota. If you're ever in the mood to talk baseball, or any sport for that matter, you can drop me a line or leave a comment on my blog.
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