Today is Major League Baseball’s draft, unfortunately the most unheralded of all the professional drafts. There are numerous reasons why this is the case, such as:
Due to the lack of televised games, college and high school baseball players are far less familiar to the sporting public than players eligible to be drafted in the NBA and the NFL.
Although the same is true of all drafts, all too often a player who goes in the first-round of the MLB draft is never seen or heard from again.
Due to the minor league system in baseball, draftees almost never have any sort of immediate impact, thus limiting the number of Rays fans running out to by Tim Beckham jerseys today.
Despite those glaring facts and the fact that the media seems to have no real interest in the draft, I certainly do and I know many other baseball fans do as well. As such, I’ve been scouting the crop of talent available in this year’s draft a lot in recent weeks and I’ve gone through and made a list of the top three players I’m hoping my boys--the Minnesota Twins--can snag with their first pick in the draft (number 14).
-- My Top 3 --
(1) Jemile Weeks, 2B, University of Miami
As we've seen in recent years the younger brothers of former first-rounders (Justin Upton and Stephen Drew) have done pretty good for themselves at the professional level. As such, I'd like to see the Twins take a stab at Rickie Weeks' younger brother Jemile.
Even though he plays the same position as his older brother, Jemile is not the same kind of player. The younger Weeks is a switch-hitter who doesn't have, and likely will never have, the kind of power Rickie does. Weeks is a line-drive, slashing type of hitter who squares the ball up well and can really get things going with leadoff-type skills. He runs extremely well and could steal a ton of bases in the pros. His defense is somewhat in question, but could definitely be improved by coaching at a higher level.
Lawrie brings two very important things to the table for the Twins. First he has the ability to play third-base, obviously the biggest hole in the Twins lineup since Corey Koskie departed via free-agency. He also has the ability to contribute behind the dish, a move that would allow the Twins to rest Joe Mauer's knees more often and/or eventually move him to a different position.
Due to the fact that scouting Canadian players can sometimes be difficult because of the lack of opportunity to see them the information on Lawrie is a little limited, but scouts know all about Lawrie and his plus power potential. At present he's mostly a pull hitter without a true position, though he's shown the tools -- raw though they may be -- to handle being a catcher and playing the hot corner. It may take a while, but putting that bat behind the plate could one day make him a premium player.
(3) Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State
Wallace, from all reports I've read, is one of the best hitters in college and perhaps in the entire Draft class. He possesses unbelievable plate discipline and has the ability to hit .300 with 25+ homers in the majors on a yearly basis.
What limits Wallace--and is driving him down on many people's draft projections--is his body. At 6'1" 245lbs he is a pretty big boy. Odds are this will limit his ability to play 3B at the Major League level and will be relegated to first base detail, which makes Justin Morneau an immediate roadblock. The Twins could groom Wallace as a 1B/DH, but would be more inclined to draft him and put him on a training regimen that would allow him to play third base in the pros, thus immediately increasing his value.
David Ortiz hit the DL this week with a tear in the sheath that surrounds the tendon in his left wrist and although Big Papi thinks he can be back in a month, many think that the injury won’t heal in that time and may require season-ending surgery. If that is in fact the case, I can't help but think that the Red Sox will be looking to their crimson brothers-in-arms, the Cincinnati Reds for an offensive boost.
Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. both figure to be available and both could help the Sox in multiple ways.
Griffey and Dunn are both left-handed hitters who could provide solid numbers in the three-hole for the Red Sox. Both have significant power. Both have the ability to play the corners at Fenway and/or DH-alternatively with Manny Ramirez.
But most importantly...Cincy is most-likely looking to move both of them in order to save some serious cash and gain more prospects for the team’s on-going youth movement.
Let’s take a look at the Sox options:
Ken Griffey Jr.
In Griffey, the Sox would essential acquire a rent-a-player for the season, but if they are successful, perhaps Griffey would want to stay longer and make another championship run...something he isn't likely to do if he returns to Seattle as most people are predicting he will. Although Griffey isn't have an overly impressive year at the plate thus far, a move to a contending team could revitalize him and the option to play DH would definitely save on the wear and tear as the season progresses. The Red Sox also have to realize that they would be acquiring one of the best players of this era--albeit on the downside of his career--and someone who would seemingly fit in very well with the Boston clubhouse.
Adam Dunn
In Dunn, the Sox would receive a powerful 28-year-old who appears to just be entering his prime and has raked to the tune of 40 homers (or better) for each of the last four years and is on pace to do it again in 2008. Dunn would be a wise signing if the Sox decided not to exercise Manny's option after 2008, as he could play the small left field at Fenway just as admirably as Manny and put up similar offensive numbers. However, with the uncertainty surrounding Big Papi's injury and his history of wrist-injuries, perhaps it'd be in the Sox best interest to sign Dunn and Ramirez and "worst-case scenario", David Ortiz comes back healthy and mashing and the Sox find that they have an overload of offensive talent. What a sad situation that would be for Sox, huh?!
What would it take to land Griffey or Dunn?
To get Griffey it would probably cost the Sox at least one solid pitching prospect (not named Masterson) most-likely Charlie Zink or Craig Hansen. The Reds would probably also want to land an outfielder in the deal such as Jeff Bailey or Chris Carter.
It may cost the Sox a little more to land Dunn, due to his age and current value to the Reds line-up, it might take Justin Masterson and some combination of Jed Lowrie, Brandon Moss, Zink, Bailey or Carter. Although given the proven skills of both Masterson and Lowrie the Sox may be able to get away with one of those two and a lower level prospect.
Final Analysis
Either way the trade makes sense for both sides. Ortiz's injury is a serious one and even if he is able to come back this season, there is a good chance he will be hampered by the injury all year, and it figures to sap his power and thus damages his on-base abilities as pitchers would be less-inclined to pitch around him. This gives the Sox a definite back-up plan and an option in the corners to help spell Manny and keep him from having another of his yearly late season "injuries."
It benefits the Reds because, even with the youth-movement in full swing, they don't appear set to contend in 2008. If the team doesn't choose to sign Dunn long-term (which would be a mistake) then he and Griffey both should be moved before walking away and leaving the team with nothing to show for it. The Reds can gain some high-ceiling prospects from the Red Sox and continue to keep their farm system stocked and keep the infusion of young talent coming, that way the team isn't forced to rely on the likes of Corey Patterson beyond the 2008 season.
Thoughts? Opinions? Blatant insults regarding my horrible use of ellipses? Etc…
So here we are at the quarter mark of the 2008 season. The time of the season when General Managers take a step back to look at what they’ve assembled. It is now that teams begin to decide whether or not they’re going to be legitimate contenders as the season wears on.
Once that decision is made it’s up to the GMs to determine what the next course of action should be. If the team has decided it’s not likely to contend; the next move is generally a sell-off of high-priced veterans with an eye toward the future. However, if the team believes it has a shot—that’s when things get interesting.
Coming into the 2008 season the Mariners, Blue Jays and Tigers were all thought to be potential contenders and in the case of the Tigers, one of the odds-on-favorites to win the World Series. Right now all three are struggling offensively and could use a serious shot in the arm (pun VERY MUCH intended) by the name of Barry Bonds.
I’m going to take a look at all three teams and how Barry Bonds does or does not fit into their playoff hopes going forward.
SEATTLE MARINERS
The Mariners entered 2008 on the heels of a successful campaign that led to the resigning of Ichiro Suzuki and saw the team improve the rotation with the additions of Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva. Many picked the Mariners to unseat the Angels atop the AL West on the back of the retooled pitching staff, strong bullpen and a solid offense. Unfortunately, someone forgot to inform the offense.
The offense currently ranks 23rd with a .250 average and 29th with an on-base percentage of .309. These low totals explain why the team has only amassed a whopping total of 165 runs thus far.
The team is predominantly right-handed with lefties, Ichiro and Raul Ibanez, and switch-hitter Jose Vidro being the only regulars to mix up the parade of right-handed hitters. Bonds is--without a doubt--the best lefty on the market and even at age 43 can still produce at a high level both in terms of power and on-base percentage (28 homers and .480 OBP in 340 at-bats in 2007).
The Mariners—who are currently ten games under .500 and 8 ½ games out of first in the AL West—have already made attempts to shake up the lineup by jettisoning Brad Wilkerson and Greg Norton and replacing them with minor league standouts Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien. There were discussions regarding Frank Thomas, when the slugger was released by the Blue Jays in late April, but Thomas’ decision to rejoin Oakland quickly put an end to any chances of the Big Hurt bringing his Hall of Fame credentials to the Pacific Northwest.
Why It Will Happen: Current DH Jose Vidro is “hitting” .193 with two home runs and a .244 OBP, Bonds could hit better than that right-handed…and blind-folded. Needless to say Bonds would be an immediate upgrade and would love having Ichiro on base in front of him all season long, almost as much as Ichiro would love having Bonds batting behind him.
Why It Won’t Happen: The oft-rumored Ken Griffey Jr. to the Mariners deal seems more likely than Bonds landing in Seattle. Griffey would provide the offensive upgrade and the left-handed bat the team so desperately needs. Throw in the fact that he is a hero in the Emerald City and it only makes sense for Griff to return to Seattle for a storybook ending to his career.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
As is the case every season in recent memory, the Blue Jays entered the season as a popular “dark horse” candidate to make a playoff run in the powerful AL East. The team boasts one of the best rotations in all of baseball and was supposed to have a dynamic offense with Alex Rios, Frank Thomas, Aaron Hill and the returns of a healthy Scott Rolen and Vernon Wells.
What the Blue Jays got was one of the lowest scoring offenses in the American League. The Jays currently sit at 153 runs scored with a .255 team average. As a result of the low output (and the unattractive vesting option he was closing in on) Frank Thomas was released in late April and Seattle cast-off Brad Wilkerson was brought in along with the streaky, yet underachieving Kevin Mench from Texas.
The Blue Jays currently sit in last place in the AL East, five games out of first-place and the only reason they’re that close is because the pitching has been stellar thus far. Without some sort of offensive wake-up call the Jays can right off contending in 2008 and potentially beyond with the window closing on much of the team’s aging core.
The Blue Jays have gotten sufficient results from Matt Stairs, but Adam Lind is overmatched and belongs in Triple-A. Wilkerson, Mench, Shannon Stewart and the plethora of other outfielders the Jays have sent out are not getting it done. The team would be wise to move Stairs to left and put Bonds in the DH slot and use both Bonds and Stairs to split up the right-hander heavy core of Wells, Rios and Rolen.
Why It Will Happen: Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi has shown that he's not afraid of shaking up his roster. He's already made a handful of transactions this season in an attempt to improve his struggling offense and as a student of Billy Beane’s on-base percentage philosophy, Bonds is the perfect fit for this squad and wouldn’t deal with nearly the level of media scrutiny north of the border.
Why It Won’t Happen: The Jays are a middle-of-the-pack spender and don’t figure to increase their payroll. Signing Bonds, even at a discount, wouldn’t be in line with the team’s spending philosophy. The Blue Jays are far more likely to deal from their strength, young pitching, to acquire a slugger such as Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, etc…rather than spend to bring in Bonds.
DETROIT TIGERS
Ask just about any baseball “expert” and coming into the 2008 season the Tigers were neck-and-neck with the Red Sox as the odds-on-favorite to win the World Series. Now, with a month and a half of the season in the rearview mirror the Tigers are mired in last-place in the American League Central, four and a half games behind the overachieving Minnesota Twins.
What makes things even more interesting is that the Tigers vaunted offense, which sputtered out of the gates, has finally gotten on a role and the Tigers are in the top five in the AL in team average, on-base percentage and runs scored. The Tigers are getting destroyed by their own overrated starting rotation and the one thing that most experts overlooked in the preseason, the absolute void that is a bullpen.
Detroit currently ranks dead last in ERA (5.03) and saves (5). They are also the only team in the AL without a complete game and one of only two (the Mariners) that have yet to produce a shut-out.
So why am I recommending the Tigers bring in Barry Bonds when he surely can’t help where the team needs him most? What the team lacks—offensively—is a consummate presence at DH and another reliable lefty bat. Bonds could fill both of those voids.
Gary Sheffield and his ailing shoulder have moved back to the outfield with the end of Jacque Jones’ month-long tenure in left-field. That leaves a rotation of aging stars and overweight sluggers like Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, Ivan Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera to take their turns at DH and super sub – and dispatched starter – Brandon Inge to fill-in around the diamond. The logical move would be to bring in Bonds, plug him in at DH and watch the lineup continue to rake in an attempt to overcome the inequities of the pitching staff.
Why It Will Happen: The Yankees have proven that a team can make the playoffs without a pitching staff and the Tigers appear to be built in the same mold. With a rapidly aging core and much of the youth sold off in offseason the Tigers’ window to win a championship is closing fast. Throw in the fact that Jim Leyland has proven he can manage Bonds in the past, the Tigers appear to be a perfect fit.
Why It Won’t Happen: The offense is set and with Brandon Inge around the team can afford to appoint Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera as the full-time DHs and let Inge get plenty of at-bats whilst upgrading the defense at third-base. The priority right now is pitching and guys like Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Huston Street, George Sherrill, etc are more likely to be on the Tigers’ radar than another aging slugger for their collection.
DARKHORSE CANDIDATES
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
It seems that the Royals have put together a respectable rotation and a solid bullpen. What the team lacks is someone to generate runs. The Royals currently own one of the lowest OBPs in the AL as well as the fewest home runs and runs scored. Kansas City would be wise to give Billy Butler a first-baseman’s mitt and give Barry Bonds the DH-role for as long as he’d like to crush baseballs in the Midwest summer heat.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Sure, sure they’re in first in the AL East and sure, they’re not expected to compete all season long, but let’s throw logic out the window and just say…what if. What if the Rays brought in Bonds and let him DH all season long. With the likes of BJ Upton and Carl Crawford on base in front of him and sluggers Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena behind him in the lineup—I feel like that offense could hang with the Red Sox and Yankees until September.
NEW YORK YANKEES
This isn’t a logical move for a team that is lefty-heavy and possess about half-a-dozen DHs already, but with Hank Steinbrenner at the helm, anything is possible.
NEW YORK METS
This is another move that doesn’t seem logical, especially given Bonds’ diminished skills in the outfield. However, a left-field platoon of Bonds and Moises Alou would allow Alou to stay healthy and would work to get them both sufficient at-bats throughout the course of an entire season. Also, the luxury of having Endy Chavez as a late-inning defensive replacement nullifies any damage they could do in crunch time while still allowing Willie Randolph to have one or the other on the bench as a pinch-hitter.
Every year, I enjoy spending the weekend before baseball starts stowed away on my couch feverishly pounding away at my laptop to write up my omniscient pre-season picks. This year, however, with the season beginning mid-week half-a-world away and then pausing for a few days and then restarting, with a one-day match-up solely intended to pimp the Nationals new stadium, I found myself having a hard time wrapping my mind around the fact that the season was—in fact—beginning.
It grew even harder to believe when I was trudging around Minneapolis’ snow-filled streets in a blizzard on my way to the Metrodome to watch the Twins’ home opener. I mean seriously…a blizzard…on Opening Day?! Can’t wait until that new open-air stadium opens up in Minneapolis!!
Either way, after dropping close to $70 on overpriced Dome Dogs, nachos and warm beer…there is now no doubt that baseball season is upon us. With nearly a week of exhilarating play already under our belts, it’s about time I get my butt in gear and hammer out my belated pre-season picks.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
CY YOUNG
My Pick – Roy Halladay – Toronto Blue Jays
Doc Halladay might not be the strikeout machine he once was, but he is still a stud on the hill and the unquestioned ace for one of the best rotations in all of baseball. As is often the case for Halladay, health will be the major concern heading into this season. With other potential front-runners for the AL Cy Young such as Scott Kazmir, John Lackey and Josh Beckett all spending time on the DL early in the season, Halladay needs to remain healthy himself to distance himself from the pack.
Halladay’s 2008 Line: 19 W – 3.48 ERA – 156 K
In the Mix: Erik Bedard – Seattle Mariners & CC Sabathia – Cleveland Indiants Dark Horse: Javier Vazquez – Chicago White Sox Really Dark Horse: Rich Harden – Oakland Athletics
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
My Pick – Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays
I realize Longoria is the fashionable pick—but there’s a reason he’s the fashionable pick—the dude can flat-out rake. In Spring Training he hit .262 with three home runs and ten runs batted in. Throw in his .407 on-base percentage and his .595 slugging percentage and there’s no doubt why the rest of the roster was begging the Rays management to insert Longoria into the Opening Day lineup. Unfortunately, fiscal rationale took over and the Rays sent Longoria back to Triple A where he’ll wait until May for his call-up, ala Ryan Braun last season, at which point one can expect Longoria will be entrenched at third base for a long, long time.
Longoria’s 2008 Line: .280 – 21 HR – 89 RBI
In the Mix: Joba Chamberlain – New York Yankees & Jacoby Ellsbury – Boston Red Sox Dark Horse: Carlos Gomez – Minnesota Twins Really Dark Horse: Alexei Ramirez – Chicago White Sox
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
My Pick – Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees
Honestly, given the way A-Rod absolutely obliterated everything in his path last season, it’s really hard to knock the guy. Plus, who was even close to touching A-Rod for overall stats last year? Who’s that you say? No one. Sure his numbers have historically dipped off following his MVP seasons, but let’s take note that we’re talking about a guy who has had multiple MVP seasons for this statement can be made. How many multi-time MVPs are still hanging out in big league locker-rooms? I bet you can count them all on one hand. Things could always change as the season progresses, but hands down A-Rod is still the best player in the game today and now that he has the whole “biggest contract in the history of history” thing taken care of…now he wants a ring, expect an even more focused A-Rod in 2008 and beyond.
Rodriguez’s 2008 Line: .317 – 53 HR – 121 RBI
In the Mix: David Ortiz – Boston Red Sox & Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers Dark Horse: Vladimir Guerrero – Los Angeles Angels Really Dark Horse: Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers
NATIONAL LEAGUE
CY YOUNG
My Pick – Johan Santana – New York Mets
Let’s be honest, I’d be a fool not to pick Santana. Although, I’d also be an even bigger fool if I tried to act like the NL wasn’t full of quality pitching with the likes of Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Hill, Chris Young, etc…etc…etc…
However, of all those names, Santana is still the best of the bunch. Anyone who looks at the numbers Santana put up in Minnesota would have to expect an increase with a move to the lighter line-ups of the NL and the lack of a designated hitter. Santana has always been a pitching machine, but now he’s got long-term security, a strong line-up behind him and most importantly he has the best shot to win a ring he’s had in his entire career, be afraid National League…be very afraid.
Santana’s 2008 Line: 23 W – 2.87 ERA – 234 K
In the Mix: Jake Peavy – San Diego Padres & Brandon Webb – Arizona Diamondbacks Dark Horse: Roy Oswalt – Houston Astros Really Dark Horse: Pedro Martinez – New York Mets
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
My Pick – Johnny Cueto – Cincinnati Reds
Sure, by the time I’ve written this I’ve already had the advantage of watching him humiliate the Diamondbacks, but anyone who has been following Cueto’s already impressive career knows that he is for real. In just 348 minor league innings Cueto struck out 357 batters and notched a 3.28 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. For those of you who aren’t stat junkies, let me break that down so you’ll get what I’m saying…CUETO IS AWESOME!!! Yeah, I think that sums it up. Throw in the fact that he’s slotted into the third-spot in the rotation behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo and just keep looking better…the only potential threat to Cueto’s success is the man in the dugout, Dusty Baker. With young arms Edison Volquez and Homer Bailey in addition to Cueto all in the fold for the Reds, many are nervous that Baker will wear them out as he is believed to have done with Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Here’s to hoping that Cueto, Volquez and Bailey can all avoid the wrath of Dusty the Destroyer.
Cueto’s 2008 Line: 13 W – 3.48 ERA – 178K
In the Mix: Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds & Geovany Soto – Chicago Cubs Dark Horse: Kosuke Fukudome – Chicago Cubs Really Dark Horse: Cameron Maybin – Florida Marlins
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
My Pick – Matt Holliday – Colorado Rockies
Last year should have been Holliday’s year, no doubt about it. Sure Jimmy Rollins had a great season, but much like Ryan Howard the year before, he wasn’t the Most Valuable Player in the National League. This year Holliday figures to leave no doubt that the award belongs on his mantle. He just turned 28 in January and is gaining not only more power as he gets older, but also a better eye at the dish. With the incentive of playing for a long-term deal also in the mix and a chance to return to the World Series, Holliday has nothing but motivation heading into the 2008 campaign and it’s a well-known fact that when great players get motivated, they get down-right scary. Expect Holliday to put up some scary numbers in 2008.
Holliday’s 2008 Line: .331 – 41 HR – 138 RBI
In the Mix: Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals & David Wright – New York Mets Dark Horse: Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers Really Dark Horse: Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals
AMERICAN LEAGUE
EAST
Red Sox Blue Jays - WC Yankees Rays Orioles
CENTRAL
Indians Twins Tigers Royals White Sox
WEST
Angels Mariners Rangers Athletics
NATIONAL LEAGUE
EAST
Mets Phillies - WC Braves Nationals Marlins
CENTRAL
Brewers Cubs Reds Astros Cardinals Pirates
WEST
Padres Rockies Diamondbacks Dodgers Giants
DIVISIONAL SERIES
Padres over Phillies (3-1) Mets over Brewers (3-2)
Blue Jays over Angels (3-1) Red Sox over Indians (3-2)
CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Mets over Padres (4-2) Red Sox over Blue Jays (4-1)
It’s a dark day in Minnesota, but a bright future is on the horizon.
Tuesday’s trade of ace Johan Santana to the Mets for outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra is being viewed as drastically lopsided right now, but let’s not forget the Frank Viola, Chuck Knoblauch and AJ Pierzynski trades all looked one-sided at the time as well.
I’ve written plenty about Johan Santana this winter and I’ve spent way too much time dreaming up improbable scenarios where he re-signed with the Twins and led them to multiple World Series titles. The simple fact of the matter is that one pitcher cannot and will not win his team the World Series. A stellar ace is always a plus, but he can’t pitch every game, thus why the Twins--in the long run--are poised to benefit most from this trade.
Any time you gain four players with high ceilings and limited miles on the tires, it’s a positive thing. Here’s a look at what the Twins are getting out of the deal.
Carlos Gomez, OF: The most Major League-ready of the pack, Gomez retained rookie status in 2007 because of a broken bone in his left hand in July, which sidelined him for two months after he made his Major League debut in May. At 21, he was the youngest player in the National League at the time.
Before his call-up, Gomez had been somewhat overlooked when discussing Mets outfield prospects because of all the talk surrounding teenage sensation Fernando Martinez. But Gomez had cruised through the organization, skipping from Class A Hagerstown in 2005 to Double-A Binghamton in 2006, showing no apparent need for some time at Advanced A. He hit .281 with 41 steals in the Eastern League at age 20. He has all the tools you look for in a premier outfielder, with the speed for center and the arm for right. He was hitting .286 at Triple-A New Orleans with 17 steals before his spring promotion, and then batted .232 with 12 more swipes in 125 at-bats with the Mets before his injury.
The Twins' current outfield mix features Michael Cuddyer, newly acquired Delmon Young, Jason Kubel and veteran Craig Monroe battling for corner spots and Jason Pridie and Denard Span in the mix for the opening in centerfield. Look for Gomez to charge right into that pack to make a claim for one of the spots, most likely centerfield.
Philip Humber, RHP: With a strong spring, Humber could factor into the wide-open, but still competitive, battle for a Twins rotation spot. Drafted out of Rice University with the third-overall pick in 2004 and signed for a $3 million bonus, his pro career got off to a sluggish start as he posted a 4.99 ERA at Class A Advanced St. Lucie in 2005 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. He's yet to really come back in pre-surgery form, but his trademark curveball is still a plus pitch.
He spent most of '07 in New Orleans, where he was 11-9 with a 4.27 ERA in 25 starts, striking out 120 batters in 139 innings. He finished the summer with three games in New York, posting a 7.71 ERA in seven innings. He is no longer the untouchable can't-miss prospect he was when he signed in '04, but at 25 years old and now two years removed from his surgery, 2008 could be a big one for him.
Kevin Mulvey, RHP: Though his name is not generally mentioned in the same breath as the elite pitching prospects in the Mets system (Guerra, Humber and Mike Pelfrey), Mulvey is no slouch either. Drafted out of Villanova in the second round with the Mets' first pick in 2006, he appeared in just a handful of games that summer before earning the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors in 2007. A Futures Game selection and Eastern League All-Star, the 22-year-old went 11-10 with a 3.32 ERA at Double-A Binghamton before finishing his season with one scoreless start at Triple-A New Orleans. Without one dominating pitch, he mixes four solid offerings highlighted by his slider with good control. He is likely to begin 2008 at Triple-A Rochester and a strong first half could keep his name on people's lips should the need for a starter arise.
Deolis Guerra, RHP: The 6-foot-5 Venezuelan prospect, who won't turn 19 until April, ranked just behind the apparently untouchable outfielder Fernando Martinez when it comes to Mets prospects, but he is likely to be the last to arrive in Minnesota. When he gets there, however, it should be for good.
Guerra made his pro debut in stellar style in 2006 when, at age 17, he posted a 2.20 ERA at Class A Hagerstown, limiting South Atlantic League hitters to a .208 average. In '07, still at 17, he was the Opening Day starter for Class A Advanced St. Lucie and pitched in the Futures Game as well. He battled some shoulder tendonitis, which limited his innings, but posted a 4.01 ERA in 90 innings in the Florida State League with a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s and a plus changeup, which ranked as the best in the Mets' system. He continues to work on improving his curveball and refining his overall game.
While he could start the season at Double-A New Britain, it is more likely that the Twins will opt to keep him back in warmer climate of Fort Myers, Fla., before sending him to the Eastern League later in the summer.
…at this point it’s too soon to tell who will ultimately get the better end of this trade. Twins fans have lost a lot of fan favorites this off-season and the loss of Santana only further amplifies the direction the team appears headed in the near future, however, the trade does leave the fans with hope that within a few years time the Twins could be contenders again.
Attention New York and Boston baseball fans…this may come as a rather large shock so please sit down.
Are you sitting? Okay…here goes.
Baseball does, in fact, exist outside of New York and Boston.
I’ll give that just a minute or two to sink in. Feel free to continue reading whenever you feel physically and emotionally able. However, I am going to warn all of you Yankees and Red Sox fans out there that this entire blog will actually be bashing BOTH of your respective fan-bases. So don’t go thinking you can skim the article--as fans from the upper east coast are wont to do--and then promptly go on a comment adding tirade about why your team is superior to the opposition.
Instead, I’d prefer it if when this little ride is over, ya’ll just sat back and took a few minutes to think about how ridiculously short-sighted and egomaniacal you really are.
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Chapter One – All About the Benjamins
First and foremost, I realize that the Yankees and Red Sox both just made the playoffs…again. I also realize that the Red Sox just won the World Series…again. However, let’s also take a moment to note that the Yankees and Red Sox led all of baseball in terms of payroll…again. (with the New York Mets coasting in third-place)
The Yankees and Red Sox combined payroll in 2007 was roughly $338 million. All four of the National League playoff teams combined paid out roughly $296 million worth of salary in 2007. Not a one of those teams had made the playoffs since the Cubs NLCS run in 2003.
So brag all you want about your successes, but until you can win with small payrolls like the Athletics, Twins, Rockies, Padres, Indians and Diamondbacks have done in recent years—keep your mouth shut. The Pirates and Royals could win the World Series with a $150 million payroll too…or at least make the playoffs and choke in the first round.
Chapter Two – Pie in the Sky Expectations
I have three names for you. Bill Pulsipher. Jason Isringhausen. Paul Wilson. In the mid-1990s, the trio were all widely hyped as the next generation of New York Mets' superstars. The group received considerable press attention and the nickname “Generation K.” These three were viewed as the future of the franchise and injuries derailed all of their career significantly. Pulsipher finished his career with thirteen wins and a 5.15 earned run average. Wilson had a better career finishing up with 40 wins and 4.86 ERA, despite being touted as a future Hall-of-Famer straight out of school. Only Isringhausen managed to patch together a solid career as a closer after multiple injuries derailed his highly-touted starting career.
Anyone get where I’m taking this?
Let me drop some more names for you in the upper east coast…Jacoby Ellsbury, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz and Ian Kennedy. All are highly-touted prospects and apparently every one of you thinks that all of the pitchers are going to turn into Bob Gibson and Ellsbury is going to be better than Ken Griffey Jr. That’s pretty much the only reason why I can assume none of you wants to trade any of those players for Johan Santana.
Ever since December, all I’ve read about is how neither Red Sox nor Yankees fans want to give up any of their prized prospects. Yankees fans seem to think they’re doing the Twins some sort of favor by even offering to “take Santana off the Twins’ hands.” I’ve read trade proposals from Yankee fans that include overpriced and under-talented players at the end of their careers and contracts such as Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina and Johnny Damon. Call me crazy, but why would the Twins trade the best pitcher in baseball for a bunch of overpaid, worn-out has-beens who won’t be under contract for more than a year?
In fact, far too many Yankees fans have made the argument that they should wait until Santana hits free agency and just buy him. Well, long story short Santana will not hit free-agency. He’ll be traded and locked up to an extension and you’ll never get your hands on him unless you make a trade.
Red Sox fans are too unwilling to throw in Buchholz or Ellsbury and act like giving up Jon Lester in addition to Coco Crisp and two prospects is some kind of sin. Let’s be honest Red Sox fans, look at the horrible trades the team has made in the last two years. In acquiring Eric Gagne last year and reacquiring Doug Mirabelli the year before the Sox gave up plenty of promising young talent and received very little in return. No one complained about the talent given up in those deals and all you received in return was a back-up catcher who’s lucky to hit above the Mendoza line and a closer who buckled under the pressure of a big market.
Until any of those five players lives up to the hype, consider yourselves idiots for passing on the greatest pitcher in baseball because you’ve bought into your own hype.
Chapter 3 – Homers Shouldn’t Talk Baseball
This is a simple request I’m making to each and everyone of the Yankees and Red Sox fans out there who thinks it’s necessary to leave a comment on every thread of every baseball story posted on every website on the internet.
It’s as simple as this, not every article is about the Red Sox or Yankees…don’t try to make the comment thread about the Yankees or Red Sox.
If you know nothing about another team, for the love of the Baseball Gods, please keep your mouth shut. Everyone outside of the upper east coast assumes you’re all only paying attention to yourselves anyway, no need to prove us right.
And please, please, pretty please…don’t try to argue for the value of your hometown team when it’s completely ludicrous. You just look like an ####.
Example 1: Recently someone wrote a blog ranting about Bernie Williams and how he should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Let me repeat that in case anyone didn’t catch it correctly. Someone was trying to defend an argument that Bernie Williams was a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
I’m not even going to go into explaining why that is absolute baseball blasphemy, because if I have to you, you’re either not a baseball fan or you’re in the group of people who agrees, in which case, color yourself dead to me.
Example 2: There was an article on FoxSports.com about the top four teams that have a chance to surprise this year. The article had nothing to do with the Red Sox or the Yankees. In the article Joe Mauer of the Minnesota Twins was referenced as being the best all-around catcher in baseball. On the comment thread someone immediately posted a reply that basically took a big ole dump all over the article simply because of the Mauer comment.
His argument? Jason Varitek is the best overall catcher in baseball. To further establish his “argument” he put up the head-to-head career statistics of Jason Varitek and Jorge Posada, completely taking Mauer (or Russell Martin or Victor Martinez or Brian McCann) out of the argument altogether and making it a Yankees vs. Red Sox piece.
Again, if there is any need for me to explain the absolute lack of mental capacity it takes to try and label Jason Varitek as the best all-around catcher in the game you are either not a baseball fan or you are part of the problem.
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That my east coast loving friends shall be the end of my tirade if for no better reason than I’m already a little nauseous knowing that I just wrote yet another piece that focuses on the Red Sox and Yankees…like roughly 80% of the baseball stories that are turned out by the media in a year.
Just do me a favor fans in New York and Boston, pull your heads out of the sand and read about other teams every once in awhile, get your #### together and then you can start talking baseball all you want.
But as long as you’re going to sit back with your uneducated, simple-minded arguments of “my team is better than yours…” just keep it to yourselves or your friends down at the pub and spare the rest of us—who know what we’re talking about—the time and suffering.
In my eyes, Clemens is the greatest pitcher who’s ever lived. He’s got seven Cy Young awards, 354 career wins, eleven All-Star game appearances, two World Series rings and countless other records and accolades. Needless to say he’s proven himself on the field, but now he needs to prove himself in court of public opinion—a battle proving to be far more daunting.
Clemens good name and Hall of Fame career came under question with the release of the Mitchell Report on December 13 of last year. In the report Clemens’ personal trainer, Brain McNamee implicates former clients, most notably Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Chuck Knoblauch.
The Mitchell Report alleges that McNamee helped acquire performance-enhancing drugs including steroids, amphetamines and human growth hormone, for some or all of the players he trained. McNamee told the Mitchell Commission that he began injecting Clemens with steroids in 1998, and that he continued to provide these steroids through 2001.
Clemens’ appearance on “60 Minutes” Sunday was met with mixed responses. Some believe his adamant, and almost furious, denials were proof that he was a wronged man who’d grown emotional due to the immediate public crucifixion, despite a lack of evidence beyond the testimony of a former trainer. Others saw his borderline tirade as further proof of his guilt and the unwillingness of his ego to be done in by a mere “clubhouse lackey.”
Clemens had a phone conversation with McNamee on January 4, two days prior to the “60 Minutes” interview. In that conversation Clemens stated he just wants the truth from someone, never actually telling his former trainer to come out and clear the pitcher's name. Clemens stated many times in the conversation that the steroid accusations were false, and when this was stated McNamee never agreed or disagreed, simply asking "tell me what you want me to do."
At this point, both Clemens and McNamee have been asked to testify before a congressional committee. In addition to the once chummy training duo, Pettitte, Knoblauch and former Mets clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski have also been asked to appear and give their testimony.
As a life-long fan of Clemens, I’m very much torn. I want to believe him. I want to believe that he’s been clean his entire career. I want to believe that he rose above the temptation to take the easy road. I want to believe that he saw others taking short-cuts and decided he’d rather work harder to keep up and, for the most part, stay ahead of those around him.
But one can’t help but wonder how a man in his forties is throwing just as well as, if not better than, pitchers half his age. One can’t help but wonder how a man in his forties manages to avoid any major injuries or nagging set-backs in recovery time. One can’t help but wonder whether or not all their heroes are tainted.
It pains me to question the integrity of one of my favorite players of all-time. I can only liken it to the way it would kill my father if Willie Mays were to suddenly come under question for having been using some sort of early performance-enhancer.
It hurts when a hero falls, but it hurts even more when you can’t sit there and listen to them declare their innocence without skepticism taking over.
Here’s to hoping I’m wrong and that the Rocket can prove we were all wrong.
Day two of the 2007 Winter Meetings were, for the most part, pretty quiet…
Well-traveled outfielder Jose Guillen is a Royal for 3 years at $36 million. The Braves and Cubs swapped spare parts. The Yankees decreed they were pulling out of the Santana sweepstakes, only to find that the Twins called their bluff. The Angels were reportedly in the mix for Santana but Halos-GM Tony Reagins is currently denying any link to the southpaw.
See, nice and quiet.
…then, like the drunk guys who took your seat while you were getting a hot dog, the Marlins and Tigers decide to shake things up in a real big way.
The second-biggest name on the trade market—Miguel Cabrera—and teammate Dontrelle Willis were shipped to the Tigers in exchange for elite prospects outfielder Cameron Maybin, lefty starter Andrew Miller. Also heading to Florida will be catcher Mike Rabello, and pitchers Dallas Trahern, Eulogio De La Cruz and Burke Badenhop.
This trade is huge for both sides and immediately sends shockwaves through the rest of the American League.
THE TIGERS
The Tigers have to be considered neck-and-neck with the Red Sox in terms of who will be the favorite heading into the 2008 season. That could all change if the Sox wrangle Santana away from the Twins—a move that seems increasingly more necessary for anyone looking to tangle with the new-look Tigers.
On paper the Tigers have one of the most explosive lineups in all of baseball. Let’s go ahead and take a look at what the Opening Day lineup could look like:
Curtis Granderson, CF Placido Polanco, 2B Miguel Cabrera, 3B Gary Sheffield, DH Magglio Ordonez, RF Carlos Guillen, 1B Edgar Renteria, SS Ivan Rodriguez, C Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames, LF
Call me crazy, but that’s a pretty potent lineup; perhaps even more so than that of the Yankees and Red Sox; and definitely more potent than that of the Indians or the Miguel Cabrera-less Angels.
This move also opens the Tigers up to the option of trading incumbent third-baseman, Brandon Inge. With many teams in the hunt for third-basemen and the top dog now off the market, perhaps the Angels, Dodgers or even the division rival Twins would be willing to talk. Perhaps a trade of Inge and Chad Durbin to the Twins for Joe Nathan, if the Twins do—in fact—intend to trade him as well.
Moving on from the All-Star Game lineup the Tigers will be putting on the field everyday, let’s turn to their rotation. At the helm are the three faces of the future Willis, Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander all of whom are 25 or younger heading into this season. Also in the mix are veteran southpaws Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson.
Assuming Willis is able to turn-around his recent regression—something many believe to be the result of large workloads in recent years—he could return to form as the pitcher who won 22 games as recently as 2005.
The only real weakness the Tigers currently possess is the mystery surrounding the back end of the bullpen. Joel Zumaya is out until mid-season and closer-by-default Todd Jones is, well, Todd Jones. How much magic can that dude really have left? Despite that lone weakness the 2008 Tigers look to be a very talented team which means trouble for the rest of the American League.
THE MARLINS
As much as I don’t want to mention that this move was a salary dump for the Marlins, it was—by all means—a salary dump for the Marlins. With arbitration not treating the Marlins kindly the salaries for Willis and Cabrera were quickly escalating and only figured to continue the trend, as such the move makes a lot of sense.
In adding Maybin the team adds a very young, very athletic five-tool player who can finally take a firm hold on the centerfield job and help cover the ground that fellow outfielders Jeremy Hermidia and Josh Willingham can’t. Maybin has been compared to Ken Griffey Jr on numerous occasions because of his blazing speed, incredible defense and his ability to hammer the ball. His presence alongside Hanley Ramirez at the top of the Marlins lineup will give opposing teams fits on the base-paths all season long.
Miller was taken 6th overall in the 2006 draft by the Tigers and he is widely regarded as the best pitcher from that draft which was laden with quality pitchers. The 6-foot-6 southpaw has only pitched 16 games in the Minors, and it's doubtful he'll spend any more time there now. His pitches include a mid to upper 90s fastball, a late-breaking slider and a change-up. Pitching coach Mark Wiley was recently rehired by the Marlins, due to his reputation for handling young pitchers well; a move that could be a very beneficial for Miller and the Marlins.
The addition of Mike Rabello gives the Marlins a second option at catcher and the addition of three minor league arms only adds to the Marlins seemingly limitless supply of solid, young pitching.
Although the Marlins don’t look to contend any time in the near future, this trade sets the groundwork for the next five plus years. With young pitching and a very dynamic offense, this is a team that may only be a few quality parts away from contention. However, as if seemingly the way in South Florida, that isn’t likely to happen without new ownership, a new stadium or perhaps a move to a new locale. Fiscal elements notwithstanding, the talent factor is there, now it’s all about putting it together.
The 2007 Winter Meetings are here and believe it or not—and based on all my ranting, it may be hard to believe—there are people other than Johan Santana on the trade market. So I’m going to use this bloggity-blog to focus on some teams that are expected to be—or at least should be—very active at the Winter Meetings.
—The Los Angeles Dodgers—
The Dodgers have been sitting on their hands most of this off-season since signing Joe Torre to man the helm. They have numerous weaknesses to address, but as has become status quo, they simply aren’t addressing any of them. They are in talks with the Marlins for third-baseman/left-fielder/future first-baseman/future DH/future pie-eating champion Miguel Cabrera, but all of those trade talks seem to have cooled immensely in recent weeks.
With the team still in need of a serious power threat, all eyes may be on free-agent centerfield Andruw Jones this week. Jones is coming off the worst season of his career -- .222 average, 26 homers, 96 RBIs. Even with those numbers, Jones would immediately become the most potent proven bat in the Dodgers lineup. He could command a very large, long-term deal and given the Dodgers desperate need for not only a defensive upgrade in centerfield, but some serious power in the line-up, he may be worth every penny—to the Dodgers that is.
The Dodgers, initially thought to be involved in the Santana talks, are also keeping an eye on the availability of solid pitching options. Randy Wolf—one of the team’s best starters before injury shut him down in July—recently signed with the rival San Diego Padres, Jason Schmidt is a bit of a question mark after going under the knife last season. Clayton Kershaw—one of the team’s top bargaining chips at the trade table—may or may not be ready for the show next season. That leaves a rotation Derrek Lowe, Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley and Esteban Loaiza. Needless to say, adding another starter might not be such a bad idea.
The free agent class of pitcher is at best, uninspiring, but Livan Hernandez or Carlos Silva, slotted in the five-hole in the rotation could be highly-effective. Also available is a glut of pitchers returning from injury such as Freddy Garcia, Matt Clement and 2005 Cy Young Award winner Bartolo Colon. All come with the high risk, high reward tag attached.
—The New York Mets—
The Mets are in dire need of a front-line starter. A stopper, if you will. They need someone whose name on the lineup means a day off for the bullpen and the end of a losing streak. Right now they don’t have it. In fact, after losing Tom Glavine back to the division-rival Atlanta Braves they now have even less depth. The opening day rotation right now looks like Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez, Oliver Perez, John Maine and either Philip Humber or Mike Pelfrey. Needless to say, that rotation doesn’t exactly intimidate the rest of the NL East…or most city league softball teams.
General Manager Omar Minaya will clearly be on the prowl to add a starter (or two) at the Winter Meetings and given the poor showings of Pelfrey and Humber in their major league debuts last season, may be willing to dangle both of them in trade talks. He may, however, have lost himself a major bargaining chip when he jettisoned mercurial outfielder and long-time “can’t miss” prospect Lastings Milledge to the Nationals for two-second tier complimentary parts in catcher Brian Schneider and outfielder Ryan Church.
In essence the Mets have lost out in the Santana race, due to a lack of suitable prospects. Although once Santana has been moved names like Erik Bedard, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton and Dontrelle Willis could all become available on the trade market. As well teams such as the Giants, Angels and Dodgers could be willing to move one of their starters for the right price.
Any package the Mets would offer would have to include one of their young outfielder Carlos Gomez or Fernando Martinez and probably one of the top three pitching prospects in either Pelfrey, Humber or Kevin Mulvey. However, one thing the team seems to be overlooking is how badly some of these teams out west are in need of slugger; a need that could be filled by trading Carlos Delgado and a prospect. The Angels could send back Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders. The Giants could be willing to part with Tim Lincecum. The Dodgers, although relatively light on pitching themselves, may be willing to ship out Billingsley and/or Kershaw if given the right return from the Mets.
—The Milwaukee Brewers—
I know, I know…there hasn’t been much talk of movement on the part of the Brew-Crew, but hear me out. The team is in dire need of a makeover for the backend of the bullpen given the exoduses of Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink. The thought of giving Derrick Turnbow the reigns as the full-time closer again, is a little scary. However, so is gambling on someone such as free-agent Eric Gagne to return to form following his implosion in Boston.
In addition, the team may want to start thinking about Ben Sheets’ future with the club. He is a free-agent after the 2008 season and given the ridiculous inflation of prices for free-agent pitchers, he might be more valuable in a trade once the Santana/Haren/Bedard-hoopla has died down. If not for the numerous injuries that have hampered the fireballer’s career thus far, he could be the most attractive option on the market.
If the Brewers ever though about trading Sheets, this off-season is the time to act. He could command a solid return from any of a number of clubs who miss out on Santana and he wouldn’t come at nearly as steep a price to re-sign. At the same time, the rotation behind Sheets looks to be pretty solid, albeit quite young in most respects. The Brewers are a team on the cusp of perennial contention and flipping Sheet this offseason, say to the Mets for Heilman and one or two of their prospects could turn out to be a huge return.
My advice, don’t count the Brewers out as players at the Winter Meetings.
—The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim—
The Angels already fired their first salvo of the off-season when they traded away Gold Glover shortstop Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox for start Jon Garland. Then in the wee-hours of the morning on Thanksgiving, the Halos snared Torii Hunter with a 5-year/$90 million deal.
With those moves already done, the Angels next mission is to acquire a slugger to stick behind Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup. The most attractive options to the Angels appear to be a pair of dudes named Miguel; those Miguels being Cabrera and Tejada respectively.
Cabrera—as mentioned in the Dodgers portion—is the slugging third-sacker for the Florida Marlins and will probably require a larger return from whichever club he is moved to than would Tejada, the current shortstop for the Orioles. Reports suggest that the Orioles’ president of baseball operations, Andy McPhail, is so unhappy with the product on the field that he may be willing to ship out his bigger names, such as Tejada, Melvin Mora, Brian Roberts, Ramon Hernandez and even ace Erik Bedard, for a lower cost of big-league talent and more prospects.
If the Angels acquire either Miguel, expect him to be entrenched at the thirdbase and in the four hole, behind Guerrero in the lineup. Rumor currently has the Marlins asking for way too much from the Angels. If that’s the case Tejada becomes the top option and the club can contemplate diving into the market for one of the top pitchers that may be available via trade.
Either way, don’t expect the Angels to sit idly by with the moves they’ve already made. New GM Tony Reagins has proven to be very proactive and is definitely looking to make the Angels a favorite in the 2008…thus far, he’s on the right path.
—The New York Yankees—
After collapsing in the first-round of the playoffs and with the younger Steinbrenners now at the helm, the Yankees appear very, very motivated to improve their club for next season. The team has already been very active bringing back key members of the 2007 squad including: Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte.
On top of that the club has been in hot-pursuit of Twins’ ace Johan Santana and whether they win the Santana Sweepstakes or not, the Yankees still would have to consider the possibility of making a move if Haren or Bedard were to become available.
Depending on the outcome of the Santana-deal, the Yankees may also be in the market to acquire a new centerfielder if Melky Cabrera is traded. Options include free-agents such as Aaron Rowand and Andruw Jones, both of whom would be great additions defensively, but will probably require more money and more of a long-term commitment than the team is willing to give. That makes second-tier free agents such as Mike Cameron and Corey Patterson all the more attractive as short-term solutions. At this point Johnny Damon shouldn’t even be considered as a full-time centerfielder.
Other options on the trade market could include Ken Griffey Jr. from the Reds. He is entering the final season of his contract and has long talked about a desire to win a World Series. The Yankees offer that opportunity year-in-and-year-out and Griffey’s sweet swing would look really nice with that short porch in right field. If the team was merely looking for a short-term replacement, the Red Sox Coco Crisp (again, based on the outcome of the Santana trade) may or may not be available. Although I can’t foresee a trade being worked out between these two clubs.
The Yankees may or may not be ballsy enough to go ahead and inquire about the Braves’ Mark Texeira. Tex is a free agent after the 2008 season and isn’t expected to sign an extension. If the Yankees could pull the right strings, they may be able to trade for and then sign the switch-hitting slugger (who can also play some defense); a move which would substantially bolster the Yanks offense and would set up a pretty solid combo of A-Rod and Tex at the heart of the Yankees lineup.
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All-in-all this year’s Winter Meetings appear to be ripe for trades as opposed to teams simply throwing their money at free-agents as has been the case in recent years. Expect a lot of rumors, a lot of big stories and when it’s all said and done…expect a very exciting season in 2008, with lots of big names in new homes.
Here we are--December 3, 2007. Today the Major League Baseball Winter Meetings open up in Nashville, Tennessee. All eyes—at least initially—will be glued on the Twins. The Twins are dangling perennial Cy Young candidate, team ace and the man who is without question, the best pitcher of this generation—Johan Santana.
As is often the case, standing at the front of the line to obtain Santana’s services are the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. Thus far, negotiations have played out fairly well for all parties involved. The Twins have requested a Major League-ready pitcher from both sides and both sides have offered up Phil Hughes and Jon Lester, respectively. The Twins have asked for a Major League-ready centerfielder from both sides and both sides have offered up Melky Cabrera and Coco Crisp, respectively.
It’s there that things get murky. The Twins don’t appear to be all that high on Crisp or Cabrera. The Yankees refuse to throw in another high-level prospect such as AA starter Alan Horne or AAA shortstop Alberto Gonzalez. The Red Sox have told the Twins they will trade wunderkind Jacoby Ellsbury, but only if Lester is taken out of the picture. The Red Sox are also offering highly-touted AAA shortstop Jed Lowrie.
The Yankees-- frustrated that the small-market Twins won’t bend-over and take whatever deal is thrown at them—have established a deadline of today. With Andy Pettitte announcing his return to New York in 2008 early this morning, one has to think that perhaps the Yankees aren’t bluffing. However, who in their right mind will honestly pass up the chance to add the ace of all aces to their rotation?
The Red Sox have set no such deadline and, as such, if the Yankees pull out of negotiations they would be the obvious front-runners to land Santana. However, reports out of Boston suggest that Theo and company are growing frustrated with the Twins consistent demands of future ace in the making Clay Buchholz AND Jacoby Ellsbury. Epstein has repeatedly declared Buchholz as untouchable, but with other teams who are perhaps even more loaded with attractive prospects (ie: Angels and Dodgers) set to enter the fray this week at the Winter Meetings, all bets are off.
Santana may have hurt his own trade value when a report was leaked that he would refuse to accept a trade mid-season. If this happened the Twins would be hand-cuffed to a free-agent they couldn’t afford for the entire season. This would essentially mean that they would lose the greatest pitcher in baseball and have nothing more than two high draft picks to show for it. Needless to say Johan will be on the move—probably this week—so keep your eyes peeled.
Okay…so as a Twins fan, these are somewhat trying times.
I knew coming into this postseason that Torii Hunter was as good as gone. You don’t come off a career year and enter a VERY thin free-agent market and actually expect to return to your low-budget, small-market team. Torii knew this. I knew this. All the residents of Twins Territory knew this.
There have been a lot of Torii haters coming out lately, mostly uneducated fans pissing and moaning about how he “took the money and ran” or “turned his back on the Twins” or simply “left.” There are also tons of idiots who are pissed at new General Manager Bill “I have the lamest name, ever” Smith for “letting him go.”
Now I can see where both of these arguments come from, but let’s be honest, everyone (who knows anything about the Twins, that is) knew coming in that they weren’t going to be able to match the offers that Rangers and White Sox would put on the table, heck even the Royals were willing to pony up for 5 years at $75 million. Unfortunately, with Carl Pohlad still alive (and come on…no ill-will intended, honest!) that puts Torii lights years away from anything the Twinkies could offer.
So when the Angels waltzed into town with a five-year pact and $90 million to spend, Torii probably crapped his pants and thought…“Seriously?! Do these guys know that I’m a career .271 hitter with 192 homers?” Honestly, I can’t blame the dude for bailing and I wish him the best.
Then less than a full week later comes the trade rumors. In the last week the Twins realized that they are roughly $40 million apart from Johan Santana’s agent on an extension and—although Alex Rodriguez probably makes $40 million brushing his teeth under his new contract—that’s still a lot of money, especially to the Twins.
As such, the Twins are exploring trade offers for Santana; and low-and-behold who’s first to come knocking at the Twins’ door? Well what do you know; it’s none other than the New York Yankees. The mighty, mighty Yankees; the team that everyone expected to go ahead and scoop Santana up after 2008 when it was apparent the Twins wouldn’t be able to re-sign him. It just so happens that the Twins came to this realization early on and decided that, unlike the Hunter situation, they’re going to be proactive and get more than a compensation draft pick for this big fish. They’re going to rape and pillage anyone who is willing to meet their asking price.
SMART F’n MOVE!!!
As I mentioned in previous blogs, roughly five teams are actually in the hunt for Santana because only those five teams have the coffers to sign him to a long-term deal, a requirement for him to wave his no-trade clause. Personally, I think that’s Johan’s way of doing the Twins a favor. He knows they can’t afford him, so he’s demanding a long-term deal before he accepts a trade. This helps the Twins because they can demand a better return from a big market club and it helps Santana because it—most likely—lands him with a consummate contender.
Anywho, the big five who are in the Santana hunt would include the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Angels and Dodgers. Although recent reports state that the Mariners think they have some sort of puncher’s chance of jumping in and wooing the Twins over with both of the prospects they have in their farm system?! Whatever…it’s the big five and no one else.
The only real uprising I’ve heard from any of these cliques has been from the fans of—you guessed it—the Yankees. Apparently, Yankees fans think that by trading for Santana they are doing the Twins some sort of favor. As such, most fans continue to throw out packages that include Mike Mussina, Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, Shelly Duncan, Wilson Betemit and Ian Kennedy. These same fans have labeled Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera untouchable to the Twins.
Let me get this straight Yankee fans. The Twins will give you the best pitcher of this era and in return you think the Twins should take the fat, bloated contracts and washed up players that the Twins clearly can’t afford—thus the mass exodus of home-grown talent—and you offer career minor leaguers and the third-best of the “big three.”
Hmmmmm…now, correct me if I’m wrong, but the Yankees biggest issue the last, oh I don’t know, hal####ecade or so has been pitching, correct? Wouldn’t it make sense to gamble some prospects (believe it or not Yankee fans—Joba and Hughes are not Nolan Ryan and Tom Seaver—they are still unproven rookies) for the single greatest pitcher in baseball?
Honestly, I hope the Yankees own arrogance about their “untouchables” comes back to bite them in the #### and the Red Sox swoop in and offer some sort of three player deal involving Bucholz, Lester, Ellsbury, Crisp, Lowrie, Moss and/or Delcarmen. Then I hope Johan continues his career brilliance (2.66 ERA) against the Yankees and the Red Sox go on to win multiple division championships with the two-headed monster of Santana and Beckett staring down at the oddly-Pulsipher, Isringhausen, Wilson-like trio of Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy.
Wow, that was a lot of Johan ranting and Yankee-bashing. Let’s move on to the trade that is almost complete. That involves sending arguably the Twins best young pitching prospect Matt Garza, starting shortstop Jason Bartlett and set-up man Juan Rincon to the Tampa Bay Rays for outfielders Delmon Young, Jason Pridie and middle infielder Brendan Harris.
This one is pretty much a lock right now and I think it benefits both sides. Although I hate to see so much of the Twins core go. I think the return works out pretty well. Clearly the Twins have enough confidence in Pat Neshek and a healthy return of Jesse Crain to assume that Rincon can go. They also must believe that some combination of Alexi Casilla and Harris will work in the middle infield, despite the defensive lapses and obvious offensive short-comings of both men. However, the biggest plus here is the addition of Young.
Young, 22, was second in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2007 to the Red Sox’ Dustin Pedroia. As a rookie last season, Young started all 162 games for the Rays, hitting .288 with 13 home runs, 93 RBIs and 10 steals. Young was Tampa Bay's top choice in the 2003 amateur draft, and named “Baseball America's” Minor League Player of the Year in 2005. Adding Young to an outfield that currently includes Michael Cuddyer, Craig Monroe and Jason Kubel is a big coup for the Twins. (Rumor also has the Twins pursuing the likes of Coco Crisp and/or Jacoby Ellsbury in a potential trade with the Red Sox.)
The biggest loss obviously is Garza who is a righty with some nasty stuff and a very high-ceiling. With the expected losses of Santana and Carlos Silva this puts even more pressure on a very young rotation which (barring the return on Santana’s trade) should include #### Bonser, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, Scott Baker, potentially Nick Blackburn, and—returning from Tommy John surgery—new staff ace…Francisco Liriano.
Finally, the Twins current closer and future trade bait, Joe Nathan. Nathan emerged as a huge presence and one of baseball’s best closers after his trade from the Giants following the 2003 season. With Francisco Cordero and Mariano Rivera recently raising the bar for closers’ salaries, smart money is on the Twins moving Nathan this winter. Nathan is a Houston native and the Astros recently dispatched troubled closer Brad Lidge to the Phillies. The Astros have the money to spend; although so do the rival Texas Rangers who are also in need of a late-inning stopper. In addition, many other teams include the Cubs, Brewers, Red Sox, Mets, Tigers and Yankees could all be interested.
If the Twins do, in fact, dismantle and are left with what they view as the “new core” of the franchise—Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer (and potentially Delmon Young)—expect them to dole out long-term deals quickly to avoid these problems in the foreseeable future and to lock up a solid roster for the Twins’ move to their new ballpark in 2010. At the same time, one can expect a hearty return for the likes of Santana and Nathan. Hopefully, new GM, Bill Smith will be able to build the team for the future without completely alienating the fans who have been here all along.
(1) Jemile Weeks, 2B, University of Miami 
Lawrie brings two very important things to the table for the Twins. First he has the ability to play third-base, obviously the biggest hole in the Twins lineup since Corey Koskie departed via free-agency. He also has the ability to contribute behind the dish, a move that would allow the Twins to rest Joe Mauer's knees more often and/or eventually move him to a different position. 
David Ortiz hit the DL this week with a tear in the sheath that surrounds the tendon in his left wrist and although Big Papi thinks he can be back in a month, many think that the injury won’t heal in that time and may require season-ending surgery. If that is in fact the case, I can't help but think that the Red Sox will be looking to their crimson brothers-in-arms, the Cincinnati Reds for an offensive boost. 
In Griffey, the Sox would essential acquire a rent-a-player for the season, but if they are successful, perhaps Griffey would want to stay longer and make another championship run...something he isn't likely to do if he returns to Seattle as most people are predicting he will. Although Griffey isn't have an overly impressive year at the plate thus far, a move to a contending team could revitalize him and the option to play DH would definitely save on the wear and tear as the season progresses. The Red Sox also have to realize that they would be acquiring one of the best players of this era--albeit on the downside of his career--and someone who would seemingly fit in very well with the Boston clubhouse. 
In Dunn, the Sox would receive a powerful 28-year-old who appears to just be entering his prime and has raked to the tune of 40 homers (or better) for each of the last four years and is on pace to do it again in 2008. Dunn would be a wise signing if the Sox decided not to exercise Manny's option after 2008, as he could play the small left field at Fenway just as admirably as Manny and put up similar offensive numbers. However, with the uncertainty surrounding Big Papi's injury and his history of wrist-injuries, perhaps it'd be in the Sox best interest to sign Dunn and Ramirez and "worst-case scenario", David Ortiz comes back healthy and mashing and the Sox find that they have an overload of offensive talent. What a sad situation that would be for Sox, huh?! 
The Mariners entered 2008 on the heels of a successful campaign that led to the resigning of Ichiro Suzuki and saw the team improve the rotation with the additions of Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva. Many picked the Mariners to unseat the Angels atop the AL West on the back of the retooled pitching staff, strong bullpen and a solid offense. Unfortunately, someone forgot to inform the offense.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
DETROIT TIGERS
Doc Halladay might not be the strikeout machine he once was, but he is still a stud on the hill and the unquestioned ace for one of the best rotations in all of baseball. As is often the case for Halladay, health will be the major concern heading into this season. With other potential front-runners for the AL Cy Young such as Scott Kazmir, John Lackey and Josh Beckett all spending time on the DL early in the season, Halladay needs to remain healthy himself to distance himself from the pack. 
Honestly, given the way A-Rod absolutely obliterated everything in his path last season, it’s really hard to knock the guy. Plus, who was even close to touching A-Rod for overall stats last year? Who’s that you say? No one. Sure his numbers have historically dipped off following his MVP seasons, but let’s take note that we’re talking about a guy who has had multiple MVP seasons for this statement can be made. How many multi-time MVPs are still hanging out in big league locker-rooms? I bet you can count them all on one hand. Things could always change as the season progresses, but hands down A-Rod is still the best player in the game today and now that he has the whole “biggest contract in the history of history” thing taken care of…now he wants a ring, expect an even more focused A-Rod in 2008 and beyond.
Sure, by the time I’ve written this I’ve already had the advantage of watching him humiliate the Diamondbacks, but anyone who has been following Cueto’s already impressive career knows that he is for real. In just 348 minor league innings Cueto struck out 357 batters and notched a 3.28 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. For those of you who aren’t stat junkies, let me break that down so you’ll get what I’m saying…CUETO IS AWESOME!!! Yeah, I think that sums it up. Throw in the fact that he’s slotted into the third-spot in the rotation behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo and just keep looking better…the only potential threat to Cueto’s success is the man in the dugout, Dusty Baker. With young arms Edison Volquez and Homer Bailey in addition to Cueto all in the fold for the Reds, many are nervous that Baker will wear them out as he is believed to have done with Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Here’s to hoping that Cueto, Volquez and Bailey can all avoid the wrath of Dusty the Destroyer.
Carlos Gomez, OF: The most Major League-ready of the pack, Gomez retained rookie status in 2007 because of a broken bone in his left hand in July, which sidelined him for two months after he made his Major League debut in May. At 21, he was the youngest player in the National League at the time. 
Deolis Guerra, RHP: The 6-foot-5 Venezuelan prospect, who won't turn 19 until April, ranked just behind the apparently untouchable outfielder Fernando Martinez when it comes to Mets prospects, but he is likely to be the last to arrive in Minnesota. When he gets there, however, it should be for good. 
In my eyes, Clemens is the greatest pitcher who’s ever lived. He’s got seven Cy Young awards, 354 career wins, eleven All-Star game appearances, two World Series rings and countless other records and accolades. Needless to say he’s proven himself on the field, but now he needs to prove himself in court of public opinion—a battle proving to be far more daunting. 
Well-traveled outfielder Jose Guillen is a Royal for 3 years at $36 million. The Braves and Cubs swapped spare parts. The Yankees decreed they were pulling out of the Santana sweepstakes, only to find that the Twins called their bluff. The Angels were reportedly in the mix for Santana but Halos-GM Tony Reagins is currently denying any link to the southpaw. 
Moving on from the All-Star Game lineup the Tigers will be putting on the field everyday, let’s turn to their rotation. At the helm are the three faces of the future Willis, Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander all of whom are 25 or younger heading into this season. Also in the mix are veteran southpaws Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson. 
Miller was taken 6th overall in the 2006 draft by the Tigers and he is widely regarded as the best pitcher from that draft which was laden with quality pitchers. The 6-foot-6 southpaw has only pitched 16 games in the Minors, and it's doubtful he'll spend any more time there now. His pitches include a mid to upper 90s fastball, a late-breaking slider and a change-up. Pitching coach Mark Wiley was recently rehired by the Marlins, due to his reputation for handling young pitchers well; a move that could be a very beneficial for Miller and the Marlins.
With the team still in need of a serious power threat, all eyes may be on free-agent centerfield Andruw Jones this week. Jones is coming off the worst season of his career -- .222 average, 26 homers, 96 RBIs. Even with those numbers, Jones would immediately become the most potent proven bat in the Dodgers lineup. He could command a very large, long-term deal and given the Dodgers desperate need for not only a defensive upgrade in centerfield, but some serious power in the line-up, he may be worth every penny—to the Dodgers that is.
In addition, the team may want to start thinking about Ben Sheets’ future with the club. He is a free-agent after the 2008 season and given the ridiculous inflation of prices for free-agent pitchers, he might be more valuable in a trade once the Santana/Haren/Bedard-hoopla has died down. If not for the numerous injuries that have hampered the fireballer’s career thus far, he could be the most attractive option on the market.
After collapsing in the first-round of the playoffs and with the younger Steinbrenners now at the helm, the Yankees appear very, very motivated to improve their club for next season. The team has already been very active bringing back key members of the 2007 squad including: Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte.
Here we are--December 3, 2007. Today the Major League Baseball Winter Meetings open up in Nashville, Tennessee. All eyes—at least initially—will be glued on the Twins. The Twins are dangling perennial Cy Young candidate, team ace and the man who is without question, the best pitcher of this generation—Johan Santana.
Now I can see where both of these arguments come from, but let’s be honest, everyone (who knows anything about the Twins, that is) knew coming in that they weren’t going to be able to match the offers that Rangers and White Sox would put on the table, heck even the Royals were willing to pony up for 5 years at $75 million. Unfortunately, with Carl Pohlad still alive (and come on…no ill-will intended, honest!) that puts Torii lights years away from anything the Twinkies could offer. 
As I mentioned in previous blogs, roughly five teams are actually in the hunt for Santana because only those five teams have the coffers to sign him to a long-term deal, a requirement for him to wave his no-trade clause. Personally, I think that’s Johan’s way of doing the Twins a favor. He knows they can’t afford him, so he’s demanding a long-term deal before he accepts a trade. This helps the Twins because they can demand a better return from a big market club and it helps Santana because it—most likely—lands him with a consummate contender. 
Young, 22, was second in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2007 to the Red Sox’ Dustin Pedroia. As a rookie last season, Young started all 162 games for the Rays, hitting .288 with 13 home runs, 93 RBIs and 10 steals. Young was Tampa Bay's top choice in the 2003 amateur draft, and named “Baseball America's” Minor League Player of the Year in 2005. Adding Young to an outfield that currently includes Michael Cuddyer, Craig Monroe and Jason Kubel is a big coup for the Twins. (Rumor also has the Twins pursuing the likes of Coco Crisp and/or Jacoby Ellsbury in a potential trade with the Red Sox.)