I wish I could say that it wasn't a surprise to turn on the radio and find out about the Milton Bradley trade yesterday, that my careful attention to local papers had revealed it as a foregone conclusion.

In reality, the trade left me flabbergasted. But given that even the A's beat writer for mlb.com didn't see the deal getting back off the ground, I guess I shouldn't feel so bad.

On the surface, it looks like the A's fleeced the Dodgers, and they probably did -- a 'welcome to the big leagues' present to Colletti. Giving up Andre Ethier for Milton Brady and Antonio Perez should be a slam dunk for the A's, though it certainly raises questions of whether Bradley's being undervalued or Ethier's being overvalued.

Bradley is, without a doubt, a great player. He's got notable defense, a strong bat, and while he lacks power numbers, he's certainly an upgrade over Jay Payton and Bobby Kielty. His contract situation makes it appear that he's a one year rental, however, and this is where the question of trading Andre Ethier arises. The injury situation will probably make all the difference in the trade. If Bradley can play more than 120 games next season, this deal will probably be an absolute steal. Oakland's apparent injury curse, however, makes me doubt that he'll reach that mark.

Ethier's a great prospect. Many projected him to reach the majors before Daric Barton. This way, at least, it looks like Barton's path to playing LF in the major leagues is clear -- there's no superior OF prospects expected to reach before him, and Bradley's arbitration status makes it look like he's not going to be here forever. A's fans can still be warmed with the thought of a Barton-Kotsay-Swisher outfield in '07 or '08.

For the A's, there should be some genuine concern about both the outfield situation in the big league and in the minors. It's cluttered up in the majors -- someone will have to be moved before the season ends. Down in the minors, Oakland's large crop of rookies last season has left the higher levels depleted of impact prospects -- the current crop of high-level outfield prospects include such lackluster names as Charles Thomas, Jason Perry, and Steve Stanley. There's a lot of hope for the system, but most of it is currently in the lower levels. This probably won't stop Beane from finding a way to #### up prospects to restore the system in a similar fashion to Daric Barton last season. At the moment, however, a major injury to Bradley or Kotsay could leave the outfield resembling its offensive performance in the glorious days where names like Adam Piatt and Terrence Long patrolled the grass. Hopefully, health and Beane's ability to maintain a deep bench will keep Oakland's outfield strong until the likes of Travis Buck and Javier Herrera are major-league ready.

And then there is, of course, the spectre of Bradley's blowups. I've never stepped foot in a major league clubhouse, so it's probably not my place, but my eyebrow has instinctively raised at Billy Beane's comments about the Oakland clubhouse being the sort of place that can absorb a troublesome personality. Perhaps it can -- but that doesn't mean a troublemaker is any less of a professional distraction and a media disaster. Arthur Rhodes showed it plainly in 2004 when the pitching staff began to use the media as a public forum to snipe at each other. The Oakland clubhouse may be able to ignore a problem person in its midst, but it's certainly no panacea for the personality. The A's have suffered through Arthur Rhodes, Mark Redman, and Jose Guillen's public complaints in the past few seasons -- as an A's fan, I'd be very grateful to finally have a year where players don't use the media for their personal venting. Apparently Billy Beane disagrees.

But maybe it'll work out. Maybe there'll be some Broadway magic in the air, as A's fans go from echoing The Sound of Music as they wonder, "How do you solve a problem like Milton Bradley?" to an RENT-esque celebration of taunting opposing team's players and fans, throwing water bottles and bonding with Bradley over the shared problem of an overexaggerated reputation.

Maybe not. But the Coliseum sure would fill up if they had a 'Watch Milton Bradley pummel AJ Pierzynski' Day.

Bradley's presence has clearly redefined the lineup. What will happen to the younger players may be the question. Dan Johnson is somewhat young, cheap, has a power bat and a decent glove at first. He's got a few years before he's arbitration elgible, and that makes him valuable. Sports news has been speculating that Bradley will take over RF while Swisher will move to 1B and Johnson will be bumped to DH. This is certainly a possibility, but it becomes even more clouded with the Frank Thomas situation.

The reports that the deal is simply waiting on physicals seem premature at the moment. The deal could certainly go through, but it seems like other, wealthier teams could be wooing Thomas with enough cash that Beane's not going to place all his eggs in that basket. This deal appears to be a sign that either the chances of Frank Thomas signing are fading a bit (or a lot -- that's my guess) or that he's got it in his head to move either Bobby Kielty or Jay Payton. Payton's desire to be an everyday player could make him a target for a move -- his stronger numbers in the past could make him a valuable chip for teams like the Yankees that are searching for centerfielders. He's got a lot more value than Kielty, and should Frank Thomas get signed, the idea of a Swisher-Kotsay-Bradley outfield with Johnson at first and Thomas at DH is enough to make this girl absolutely giddy.

It’s a relief to follow baseball on the west coast on days like this. The AL East is beginning to look like an episode of Dawson’s Creek with a dash of Jerry Springer thrown in, as the Yankees and Red Sox reportedly vying for Roger Clemens while Miguel Tejada is spouting a desire to put Baltimore behind him despite his contract. Out here, it’s less flash and more substance as some deals are finally starting to take off.

 A Little Bit of Typical

 The San Francisco Giants have signed Matt Morris in a three-year deal that manages to resemble a number of recent deals by the Giants: not a bad idea, but it carries the stench of inevitably disaster (see: Alfonso, Edgardo). The free agent market for pitching is more than ugly this season, with products like Burnett, Loaiza, and now Morris receiving lucrative contracts for questionable numbers.

 On the surface, it’s a logical deal. The Giants need someone to replace Brett Tomko without actually being Brett Tomko. His poor luck and $2.6 million contract will be replaced with the $5 million man Morris. The free agent market is poor in pitching and the Giants don’t have many higher level pitching prospects that are rotation-ready. Their odds are small for landing anyone better in a trade are questionable due to the number of prospect-rich teams that they have to compete with. Noah Lowry and Matt Cain are talented, but young – consistency would be lovely, but it’s foolish to plan around it.

 Morris’s selling point is an extremely good K/BB ratio that has consistently put his WHIP ahead of other Cardinals starters in recent years while his ERA has been dreary. It’s possible that the unbalanced schedule, pitting him against teams like the Dodgers and Padres more than the Cubs and Astros, will allow him to improve his ERA.

 With a team of fading, aged players desperately reaching for a ring before Bonds retires, it looks like Morris could be a slight improvement in their rotation for this upcoming season. But will he be worth the expensive paycheck in 2008? That’s the question – and based on some of the Giants’ previous deals, I’d certainly bet against it. Sometimes, one Alfonso-like contract just isn’t enough.

 At least the better Giants prospects are in A-ball, and perhaps one or two of them will be due for a 2008 arrival (assuming they haven’t been traded first). Giants fans will have something to hope for in the future.

 Brian Sabean celebrated the deal like most general managers do, giving reporters a bland and charmingly cliché statement:

 "Simply put, Matt Morris is a winner," said Sabean. "He's a 'gamer' who not only gives his team a chance to win every time he pitches, but as his record indicates he's around to collect the win himself. Matt will be a perfect complement to the top of the rotation and provide valuable leadership to our younger pitchers."

 While on the surface, this statement seems to be one of the traditional remarks that general managers give to congratulate themselves and inspire optimism while giving no actual evidence of the value of the trade, there is something lurking beneath the surface. Let’s translate this statement from ‘general manager BS’ into English:

 Matt Morris is a winner.

Translation: He played for the Cardinals.

 He’s a gamer

Translation: Matt Morris does, in fact, play the game of baseball.

 gives his team a chance to win every time he pitches

Translation: When Matt Morris starts a game, it begins 0-0 in the first inning, thus giving his team a chance to score more runs than the opposing team. How novel.

 As his record indicates

Translation: “Damn, I wish I had an offense like the Cardinals. I wonder if they’ll take Pedro Feliz and Alfonso for Pujols. Maybe my pitchers could get wins and I won’t have to worry about another pitcher going mental like Tomko.”

 Matt will be a perfect compliment to the top of the rotation

Translation: “We don’t know what’s been happening to Jason Schmidt, and I’m scared.”

 And provide valuable leadership to our younger pitchers.

Translation: “He’s old. And since he’s not quite old enough to truly fit our rigorous standards, we’ve added that fourth year option. Mwahaha."

 Later, LOOGY!

 It may be a very minor move in the grand scheme of the season, but there’s plenty of A’s fans dancing in joy now that Ricardo Rincon has signed with the St. Louis Cardinals.

The rep that Rincon has gained in Oakland has been one of pure and blinding terror. In many ways, it’s unearned – he’s consistently been one of the best in the league when it comes to preventing inherited runners from scoring. Justin Duchscherer, on the other hand, had an atrocious time with inherited runners last season, allowing 15 of 31 to score.

Even with the stats at my fingertips, the image of Rincon on the bullpen mound sends a horrified shiver down my spine. Maybe the terror is inspired by the fact that he fails in such a spectacular fashion, giving up seven home runs in only 37 and a third innings last season. Days like July 17^th will be burned into minds forever, when Rincon came in to face the lefty Blalock, like a good LOOGY should – only to give up a home run. Or September 12^th, when Rincon decided to break up the monotony by committing an error to allow Grady Sizemore on base, the only batter he was brought in to face. Duchscherer was brought in the strike out the next batter and end the inning as a conquering hero. Only a few days later, Rincon would be brought in against the Red Sox to face Johnny Damon with runners on first and second. He’d promptly walk Damon to load the bases, once against causing Duchscherer to come in and save the day, pitching 2.1 innings of scoreless relief.

It’s images like these that last, causing tricks with the numbers. Duchscherer’s ability to pitch at any point in the game, in any situation, made him flexible enough and valuable enough that his slips were ignored. He was typically used at the beginning of the inning, allowing his problem with inherited runners to be ignored. Rincon’s sharp decline in strikeouts this season (27 in 37.1 innings, compared with 40 in 44IP in 2004) was extremely noticeable to fans, since it limited his ability to keep runners from advancing.

Rincon, on the other hand, has made big bucks off Oakland to occupy an increasingly shrinking role. In a way, his reputation is unfair – he’s proven to be increasingly bad against right handed pitchers, yet Ken Macha’s continually tried to utilize him against them, inevitably resulting in spectacular failure (except when matched up against the likes of Frankie Menechino). He often pitched several days in a row, potentially contributing to his ineffectiveness.

But at the end of the day, the simple fact is, $2 million is too much for a team with a payroll of approximately $60 million to pay for a LOOGY, particularly one with such a complete lack of versatility for the team. An opportunity has opened up for Ron Flores, who barely got a look from the team last season with his inconsistent use. Even if he becomes ineffective, it will be much easier to stomach in a player making league minimum. The Cardinals are in a better position to absorb the cost of Rincon, but the presence of the ever-superior Randy Flores makes this a bit of a head-scratcher – Rincon could very easily turn out to be a cheaper King clone.

At least A’s fans will be able to rest easy for a few months, dreaming of a season where they can look down at the bullpen bench and feel some joy at the sight of Huston Street, Kiko Calero, and the rest of the Ricardo-less gang. Good luck, Tony LaRussa. You’ll need it.

Goodbye, Gambler

A little more eastward, one of Oakland’s best offseasons moves has occurred – and it was made by the Texas Rangers. They’ve signed Vincente Padilla in order to replace the departing Kenny Rogers. A’s fans everywhere rejoice to see Rogers head to Detroit, cutting down his number of appearances against the A’s significantly. His 8-1 record against the A’s since 2002 and his consistent dominance of them seemed to be just icing on the cake for the Rangers (and his bizarre behavior was the syringe in the pastry, perhaps). He was one of the only solid pitchers in  the weak Texas rotation for the past few seasons. He was the beacon of hope that the ballpark factor could, for small and sparkling moments, be negated.

Padilla’s 4.71 ERA will get to experience the joy of the DH and the Rangers’ ballpark. Leave it to the Rangers to find a way to make their pitching situation even more tenuous.