First up Sunday is the AFC Championship game, which I am very pleasant surprised that the Steelers are in.  This is going to be tough for Pittsburgh, since they are on the road facing a team that is 9-0 at home this year.  However, Denver also did not look great beating New England, but perhaps it was because New England shot themselves in the foot more than Denver won the game.  Nonetheless, a win is a win, and here we are.

  PIttsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

  I think that Denver must be able to run the football in order to win this game.  It is just their style of play, and with a great offensive line, and Mike Anderson rushing for 1000 plus yards this year, it is clearly Denver's weapon of choice.  However, they will be hard pressed to use it against Pittsburgh, which has the league's best defense.

  Also, Jake Plummer must have adequate protection and time to throw the ball.  When Jake drops back, Pittsburgh is going to throw all kinds of blitzes at him to try and confuse him, and his offensive line.  Jake must be able to make the reads, and make the throw, as he must be able to keep the passing game a threat so that Denver can continue to run.

  Early on, I think Jake will come out throwing.  This is to keep Pittsburgh from putting 8 men into the box to defend the run.  In fact, if Denver could get the Steelers to come out with 5 defensive backs on some plays, it would be a huge victory for Denver and what they want to do.  Once that happens, Denver will try to run the ball at will, using the passing game as a changup.

In order to stop this turn of events, the Steelers four main defensive backs must step up early and often in their coverage, and the front seven must succeed in confusing Jake Plummer and getting pressure on him.  Stopping the passing game and making Denver a one dimensional running threat would give the Steelers a huge advantage, and would also make it easier to stop the running when it inevitably comes.  This is the entire key to Pittsbrugh's defense.  Stop the pass first, and then keep Denver's rushing game under control.  If Pittsburgh can do that, they have a huge advantage in this game.

On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh will also come out throwing early and often.  This won't be to establish a running game so much as to gain a lead.  Big Ben will be throwing the ball down the field to try and get an early lead in the game.  That will be key for Pittsburgh's offense, as they are very good at holding onto a lead once they gain it.  Once Pittsburgh gains the lead, they will then grind out the clock with a running game to keep the opposing team off the field.

So the key to Denver's defensive scheme will be to keep Pittsburgh from gaining a big lead by getting good coverage on the receivers, and then, if Pittsburgh does get a big lead, matters become easier for the Broncos' defense.  Once Pitt gets a 14 point lead, Denver could put 8 guys in the box and the Steelers would still run the ball.  That might make it an easy three and out for Denver, and give them a chance to get the ball back and put points on the board. 

This won't be a high scoring game, but neither will turnovers play a big role in this game.  If they did, I would be surprised.  Both teams are very good at protecting the football, and it's doubtful if either team will have more than one turnover the entire game.  This makes stopping the other team's offense even more important, since there won't be any free gifts. 

The key to this game will not necessarily be offense, but defense.  Both teams have very effective defenses with various blitzes, and this game will probably come down to a defensive battle.  The winning team likely will not score more than 21 points. 

Since this game will be such a low scoring affair, another key to the game will be doing all the little things on offense.  Making that one extra block to bush the runner loose, of to give your QB one extra second to throw, could be the difference between victory and defeat. 

 So who has the edge?  Nobody really does.  These teams are very evenly matched.  Jason Elam has a slight edge over Jeff Reed for kicking, but I like Chris Gardocki's streak as for as punting, and Randle El for returning.  On offense, I think Denver's running game is better than Pittsburgh's, but that Big Ben will also get a little better protection, and thereby, do a bit better.  On defense, I like Pittsburgh's secondary and Denver's front four.  The linebackers are really pretty evenly matched.  Also, as far as location, Denver is 9-0 at home this year, but Pittsiburgh is, as of right now, 8-2 on the road for the season.  Both teams will come to play, and I really can't pick a winner.  Mainly I'm afraid to jinx the Steelers.  But this will truly be the best game of this weekend, and will also probably determine the Super Bowl winner.

  Well, last weekend I got three of four right, being wrong about the Giants beating Carolina.  Let's see how I do this weekend.

  Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks:  There is no way that Seattle will cover the line, seeing as they are 9.5 point favorites.  They lost the regular season game 23-20 in Washington, and Washington has been playing with a must win mentality for the past 6 weeks.  Nonetheless, Shaun Alexander is the NFL's rushing champion, and Matt Hasselback is an underrated QB.  Washington's defense will keep them under control, but not enough to win the game.  Mark Brunell and Clinton Portis will provide the Redskins offensive punch, but Seattle is number one in red zone defense.  My pick:  Seattle 24, Washington 20

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos:  New England needs to take another look at this disrespect stuff.  New England is getting plenty of respect for being only 10-6 and in the playoffs.  In fact, some gutsy types think they can go all the way.  However, they will have to get past what is truly the most disrespected team in the NFL right now, Denver.  Nobody is talking about Denver going to the Super Bowl, despite their 13-3 record and first round bye.  Nobody is talking about how great Jake Plummer is, though he has really cut down on his picks this year to become the leader of Denver's offense.  Nobody is talking about Denver's backfield being full of potent running backs, and how that, coupled with the offensive line and Denver's unique system, allows this team to run all over the place.  How's that for disrespect?  New England can talk about disrespect, but Denver will use that talk to their advantage since they are truly the disrespected team.  It's also at Denver.  As much as I am tempted to pick New England, I think Denver deserves some respect.  My pick:  Denver 20, New England 14

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts:  This game will be much closer than last time.  Ben Roethlisberger had just come off an injury, and Marvel Smith was out the last time these two teams had met.  Both of those situations have been remedied.  Also, Pittsburgh has played in the RCA Dome earlier this season, so they have some idea of what to expect.  Nonetheless, the Colts have the best offense/defense combination in the leaque, as both of their units have been performing admirably, and both are ranked in the top five in the NFL.  Pittsburgh will be able to keep it close, but it's still not enough.  My pick:  Indianapolis 31, Pittsburgh 24

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears:  The first time these two teams met on Soldier Field, Chicago won 13-3.  Now Rex Grossman is back.  Despite that, Carolina's defense has been playing very well lately, and Steve Smith is the best receiver in the NFL this year.  That combined with Deshaun Foster and Jake Delhomme make this offense potentailly deadly.  However, I still can't pick against the Bear's defense.  My pick:  Chicago 17, Carolina 13

Note:  This weekend really appears to be up for grabs in several games.  The number one seeds both have to get up to snuff quickly to avoid upsets against the 6 seeds.  Both of them haven't played a meaningful game in over a month, and right now, it is one and done.  Both the six seeds have been playing for their postseason lives since early December, as another loss would have doomed their chances. 

  Pittsburgh could upset Indy if their offense plays better and their defense is up to snuff.  They need to get Willie Parker loose against the Colts, and exploit the advantages they now have that they didn't have the first time around.

Washington could beat the Seahawks if their defense plays lights out (like it has all season), and Mark Brunell burns the secondary on a few deep balls to Santana Moss.  I was very tempted to pick the Redskins to win the rematch as well.

Carolina's defense is good enough to keep Chicago off the field.  The main thing for Carolina though, will be forcing turnovers and giving their offense good field position.  Chicago's defense is really good, and will be tough to score in when they have a long field.  Carolina though, has some of the best offensive players in the NFC on their roster.

New England is playing better than they were last time they faced Denver, and it is really amazing that this team has gone 10-6 despite having 10-12 players on injured reserve at a time.  Last time they were at Denver, they lost 28-20 in a game that was 28-6 before Tom Brady tried to engineer a comeback.  However, New England had about a dozen defensive players on the injured reserve at the time.  I think that a healthy New England team will play much closer, and could possibly pull the upset.  After all, in the past 5 years, New England hasn't lost a postseason game.