First up Sunday is the AFC Championship game, which I am very pleasant surprised that the Steelers are in.  This is going to be tough for Pittsburgh, since they are on the road facing a team that is 9-0 at home this year.  However, Denver also did not look great beating New England, but perhaps it was because New England shot themselves in the foot more than Denver won the game.  Nonetheless, a win is a win, and here we are.

  PIttsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

  I think that Denver must be able to run the football in order to win this game.  It is just their style of play, and with a great offensive line, and Mike Anderson rushing for 1000 plus yards this year, it is clearly Denver's weapon of choice.  However, they will be hard pressed to use it against Pittsburgh, which has the league's best defense.

  Also, Jake Plummer must have adequate protection and time to throw the ball.  When Jake drops back, Pittsburgh is going to throw all kinds of blitzes at him to try and confuse him, and his offensive line.  Jake must be able to make the reads, and make the throw, as he must be able to keep the passing game a threat so that Denver can continue to run.

  Early on, I think Jake will come out throwing.  This is to keep Pittsburgh from putting 8 men into the box to defend the run.  In fact, if Denver could get the Steelers to come out with 5 defensive backs on some plays, it would be a huge victory for Denver and what they want to do.  Once that happens, Denver will try to run the ball at will, using the passing game as a changup.

In order to stop this turn of events, the Steelers four main defensive backs must step up early and often in their coverage, and the front seven must succeed in confusing Jake Plummer and getting pressure on him.  Stopping the passing game and making Denver a one dimensional running threat would give the Steelers a huge advantage, and would also make it easier to stop the running when it inevitably comes.  This is the entire key to Pittsbrugh's defense.  Stop the pass first, and then keep Denver's rushing game under control.  If Pittsburgh can do that, they have a huge advantage in this game.

On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh will also come out throwing early and often.  This won't be to establish a running game so much as to gain a lead.  Big Ben will be throwing the ball down the field to try and get an early lead in the game.  That will be key for Pittsburgh's offense, as they are very good at holding onto a lead once they gain it.  Once Pittsburgh gains the lead, they will then grind out the clock with a running game to keep the opposing team off the field.

So the key to Denver's defensive scheme will be to keep Pittsburgh from gaining a big lead by getting good coverage on the receivers, and then, if Pittsburgh does get a big lead, matters become easier for the Broncos' defense.  Once Pitt gets a 14 point lead, Denver could put 8 guys in the box and the Steelers would still run the ball.  That might make it an easy three and out for Denver, and give them a chance to get the ball back and put points on the board. 

This won't be a high scoring game, but neither will turnovers play a big role in this game.  If they did, I would be surprised.  Both teams are very good at protecting the football, and it's doubtful if either team will have more than one turnover the entire game.  This makes stopping the other team's offense even more important, since there won't be any free gifts. 

The key to this game will not necessarily be offense, but defense.  Both teams have very effective defenses with various blitzes, and this game will probably come down to a defensive battle.  The winning team likely will not score more than 21 points. 

Since this game will be such a low scoring affair, another key to the game will be doing all the little things on offense.  Making that one extra block to bush the runner loose, of to give your QB one extra second to throw, could be the difference between victory and defeat. 

 So who has the edge?  Nobody really does.  These teams are very evenly matched.  Jason Elam has a slight edge over Jeff Reed for kicking, but I like Chris Gardocki's streak as for as punting, and Randle El for returning.  On offense, I think Denver's running game is better than Pittsburgh's, but that Big Ben will also get a little better protection, and thereby, do a bit better.  On defense, I like Pittsburgh's secondary and Denver's front four.  The linebackers are really pretty evenly matched.  Also, as far as location, Denver is 9-0 at home this year, but Pittsiburgh is, as of right now, 8-2 on the road for the season.  Both teams will come to play, and I really can't pick a winner.  Mainly I'm afraid to jinx the Steelers.  But this will truly be the best game of this weekend, and will also probably determine the Super Bowl winner.

  Brett Farve is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time in the NFL.  Everybody knows that.  He is the ONLY reason, in my opinion, that Green Bay has even won ONE game this year.  He may be having an off season this year, but Green Bay is riddled with injuries.  I don't even know how many wide outs out of Green Bay's top five (for this year) are actually healthy.  I think there might two of them.  That's not giving him much to throw to, and that's why he has more picks than touchdowns this season.

Nonetheless, he's come a long way from Mississippi.  He was recruited by Southern Miss as a defensive back, and started out SEVENTH on the quarterback depth chart that year.  By the third game of his freshman year though, he was starting.  He soon became legendary in Hattiesburg, and is still considered the greatest player to ever play college ball there. 

But I don't think I need to go on and on about how great Brett Farve is.  Everybody who knows anything knows that the man is a living legend, and that he is a shoo in for the Hall of Fame.  Everybody who knows anything about the NFL knows who Brett Farve is.

What you may not have realized though, is that tomorrow night he will likely be playing the LAST prime time game of his storied career.  Green Bay has only three games left this season, and Monday night at Baltimore is one of them.  But even if Farve plays another year at the Packers, it is very unlikely that he will play another Monday night game.  Monday night tends to pick good teams from the season before to play.  In other words, since both Baltimore and Green Bay were good teams that had winning seasons last year, they can play each other this year on Monday night, even though they have a combined record of 7-19.  Next year, since both teams have had losing seasons, it's highly unlikely either one will be featured on a prime time game.  And it's doubtful if Farve will stay for the 2007 season.  So chances are, this is the very last Monday night game that Brett Farve will play.  And I intend to watch whatever I can of it, as a fitting tribute to the greatest quarterback that Green Bay has ever seen. 

Saturday

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots:  No, the defending Super Bowl champions aren't that good, and there is no way they would beat Tampa Bay- if they were playing in Florida.  With the temperature projected to be around 35 degrees, and the fans in Foxborough coming out in full force, Tampa will have its hands full, even if Tom Brady is hurt.  New England 24, Tampa Bay 17

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants:  I like the Chiefs.  Larry Johnson is running all over the place, and Trent Green is doing a great job of managing the team.  New York though, has Plaxico Burress, Tiki Barber, and Eli Manning.  Both teams are loaded on offense, and the Giants are doing well on defense.  Thus, the Giants are the safe bet.  Even so, I just have a feeling about this game....   Kansas City 35  New York 31

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills:  Denver has to win out to be sure of hanging onto a first round bye.  Can they do it?  They certainly can this week.  Buffalo has been struggling all season long, and Mike Shanahan will make sure his team doesn't play flat like they did last week against Baltimore.  Denver 21, Buffalo 6

Sunday.....

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texas:  Do the Texans lose just to get Reggie Bush?  Well, what they really need is an offensive line, but there probably isn't a lineman worth a first overall pick.  Nonetheless, Houston will lose whether they try to or not.  Arizona 17, Houston 10

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts:  Here's the question:  Should Indianapolis go for history and 16-0, or should they keep their key players out of dangerous situations to ensure their health for a Super Bowl run?  Perhaps Dungy will figure out a way to do a bit of both.  Indianapolis 31, San Diego 24

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars:  And Jacksonville gets another warm up for the playoffs, while San Fran stays in the running for the top draft pick.  Jacksonville 28, San Francisco 3

New York Jets at Miami Dolphina:  This game is in nice hot Florida, and the Jets is one of the few teams in the NFL with a QB situation worse than Miami's currently is.  Going through five guys in a season is definately not a good sign.  Miami 24, New York 13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings:  The love boat scandal has resurfaced in Minnesota, and Pittsburgh's back is against the wall.  Brad Johnson is doing good, and the Vikings' defense may have figured out a few things, but it's not quite enough....  Pittsburgh 24, Minnesota 17

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints:  Todd Bowman is starting at QB for New Orleans, and the Saints have a possibility of pulling the upset.  However, Carolina is in a tight battle for playoff positioning, and they realize that they cannot afford to lose.  Carolina 21, New Orleans 17

Philadelphia Eagles at St. Louis Rams:  Both of these teams have had a horrible season.  Philly's situation totally broke down with Terrell Owens, and McNabb is out for the season after getting surgery.  Meanwhile, in St. Louis, Mike Martz has had enough, and the assistant hasn't done too well.  Marc Bulger is also out.  Nonetheless, his backup is doing well.  St. Louis 28, Philadelphia 24

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans:  Seattle's offense has come alive, and the Titan's defense is rather easily exploited.  This game could have the highest victory margin of any NFL game this week.  Seattle 42, Tennessee 7

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions:  Though I'd love for the Bengals to lose out to give Pittsburgh a shot at the division title, it's not going to happen.  Especially with Cincinnati playing Detroit, only needing one win to clinch the AFC North.  Consider it done.  Cincinnati 35, Detroit 14

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders:  Right now, I think the Browns are playing better football than Oakland.  Droughns has over 1000 yards running, and Charlie Frye is making good decisions on the ballfield.  Even though Oakland has several great offensive weapons, they seem to have an inability to use them.  Cleveland can use their weapons, though.  Cleveland 23, Oakland 20

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins:  Dallas really wants that Monday night game back.  That score has been haunting them all season, especially since they were beating Washington by 2 scores with only 3 minutes left to play.  Here's their chance at revenge.  They'll gladly take it.  Dallas 17, Washington 14

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears:  Early in the season, it appeared that nobody from the NFC North was even going to have a winning season.  Now it appears that the NFC North may have two teams in the playoffs.  Chicago has been beating some very solid NFC teams that nobody would have ever thought that they would beat.  Carolina and Tampa Bay both lost to the Bears.  Atlanta will experience the same fate, especially with it being really cold in Chicago.   Chicago 14, Atlanta 7

Monday night

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens:  This is one of the worst games of the week, and it managed to get a spot on Monday night.  Perhaps the NFL should plan the Monday night games two weeks ahead of time instead of nine months ahead of time.  It is what it is though.  And Brett Farve is a much better QB than Kyle Boller can ever hope to be.  Even if Farve is struggling, he is also the only reason Green Bay has won any games at all.  Give the man another win.  Green Bay 20, Baltimore 14