First up Sunday is the AFC Championship game, which I am very pleasant surprised that the Steelers are in.  This is going to be tough for Pittsburgh, since they are on the road facing a team that is 9-0 at home this year.  However, Denver also did not look great beating New England, but perhaps it was because New England shot themselves in the foot more than Denver won the game.  Nonetheless, a win is a win, and here we are.

  PIttsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

  I think that Denver must be able to run the football in order to win this game.  It is just their style of play, and with a great offensive line, and Mike Anderson rushing for 1000 plus yards this year, it is clearly Denver's weapon of choice.  However, they will be hard pressed to use it against Pittsburgh, which has the league's best defense.

  Also, Jake Plummer must have adequate protection and time to throw the ball.  When Jake drops back, Pittsburgh is going to throw all kinds of blitzes at him to try and confuse him, and his offensive line.  Jake must be able to make the reads, and make the throw, as he must be able to keep the passing game a threat so that Denver can continue to run.

  Early on, I think Jake will come out throwing.  This is to keep Pittsburgh from putting 8 men into the box to defend the run.  In fact, if Denver could get the Steelers to come out with 5 defensive backs on some plays, it would be a huge victory for Denver and what they want to do.  Once that happens, Denver will try to run the ball at will, using the passing game as a changup.

In order to stop this turn of events, the Steelers four main defensive backs must step up early and often in their coverage, and the front seven must succeed in confusing Jake Plummer and getting pressure on him.  Stopping the passing game and making Denver a one dimensional running threat would give the Steelers a huge advantage, and would also make it easier to stop the running when it inevitably comes.  This is the entire key to Pittsbrugh's defense.  Stop the pass first, and then keep Denver's rushing game under control.  If Pittsburgh can do that, they have a huge advantage in this game.

On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh will also come out throwing early and often.  This won't be to establish a running game so much as to gain a lead.  Big Ben will be throwing the ball down the field to try and get an early lead in the game.  That will be key for Pittsburgh's offense, as they are very good at holding onto a lead once they gain it.  Once Pittsburgh gains the lead, they will then grind out the clock with a running game to keep the opposing team off the field.

So the key to Denver's defensive scheme will be to keep Pittsburgh from gaining a big lead by getting good coverage on the receivers, and then, if Pittsburgh does get a big lead, matters become easier for the Broncos' defense.  Once Pitt gets a 14 point lead, Denver could put 8 guys in the box and the Steelers would still run the ball.  That might make it an easy three and out for Denver, and give them a chance to get the ball back and put points on the board. 

This won't be a high scoring game, but neither will turnovers play a big role in this game.  If they did, I would be surprised.  Both teams are very good at protecting the football, and it's doubtful if either team will have more than one turnover the entire game.  This makes stopping the other team's offense even more important, since there won't be any free gifts. 

The key to this game will not necessarily be offense, but defense.  Both teams have very effective defenses with various blitzes, and this game will probably come down to a defensive battle.  The winning team likely will not score more than 21 points. 

Since this game will be such a low scoring affair, another key to the game will be doing all the little things on offense.  Making that one extra block to bush the runner loose, of to give your QB one extra second to throw, could be the difference between victory and defeat. 

 So who has the edge?  Nobody really does.  These teams are very evenly matched.  Jason Elam has a slight edge over Jeff Reed for kicking, but I like Chris Gardocki's streak as for as punting, and Randle El for returning.  On offense, I think Denver's running game is better than Pittsburgh's, but that Big Ben will also get a little better protection, and thereby, do a bit better.  On defense, I like Pittsburgh's secondary and Denver's front four.  The linebackers are really pretty evenly matched.  Also, as far as location, Denver is 9-0 at home this year, but Pittsiburgh is, as of right now, 8-2 on the road for the season.  Both teams will come to play, and I really can't pick a winner.  Mainly I'm afraid to jinx the Steelers.  But this will truly be the best game of this weekend, and will also probably determine the Super Bowl winner.

  Well, last weekend I got three of four right, being wrong about the Giants beating Carolina.  Let's see how I do this weekend.

  Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks:  There is no way that Seattle will cover the line, seeing as they are 9.5 point favorites.  They lost the regular season game 23-20 in Washington, and Washington has been playing with a must win mentality for the past 6 weeks.  Nonetheless, Shaun Alexander is the NFL's rushing champion, and Matt Hasselback is an underrated QB.  Washington's defense will keep them under control, but not enough to win the game.  Mark Brunell and Clinton Portis will provide the Redskins offensive punch, but Seattle is number one in red zone defense.  My pick:  Seattle 24, Washington 20

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos:  New England needs to take another look at this disrespect stuff.  New England is getting plenty of respect for being only 10-6 and in the playoffs.  In fact, some gutsy types think they can go all the way.  However, they will have to get past what is truly the most disrespected team in the NFL right now, Denver.  Nobody is talking about Denver going to the Super Bowl, despite their 13-3 record and first round bye.  Nobody is talking about how great Jake Plummer is, though he has really cut down on his picks this year to become the leader of Denver's offense.  Nobody is talking about Denver's backfield being full of potent running backs, and how that, coupled with the offensive line and Denver's unique system, allows this team to run all over the place.  How's that for disrespect?  New England can talk about disrespect, but Denver will use that talk to their advantage since they are truly the disrespected team.  It's also at Denver.  As much as I am tempted to pick New England, I think Denver deserves some respect.  My pick:  Denver 20, New England 14

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts:  This game will be much closer than last time.  Ben Roethlisberger had just come off an injury, and Marvel Smith was out the last time these two teams had met.  Both of those situations have been remedied.  Also, Pittsburgh has played in the RCA Dome earlier this season, so they have some idea of what to expect.  Nonetheless, the Colts have the best offense/defense combination in the leaque, as both of their units have been performing admirably, and both are ranked in the top five in the NFL.  Pittsburgh will be able to keep it close, but it's still not enough.  My pick:  Indianapolis 31, Pittsburgh 24

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears:  The first time these two teams met on Soldier Field, Chicago won 13-3.  Now Rex Grossman is back.  Despite that, Carolina's defense has been playing very well lately, and Steve Smith is the best receiver in the NFL this year.  That combined with Deshaun Foster and Jake Delhomme make this offense potentailly deadly.  However, I still can't pick against the Bear's defense.  My pick:  Chicago 17, Carolina 13

Note:  This weekend really appears to be up for grabs in several games.  The number one seeds both have to get up to snuff quickly to avoid upsets against the 6 seeds.  Both of them haven't played a meaningful game in over a month, and right now, it is one and done.  Both the six seeds have been playing for their postseason lives since early December, as another loss would have doomed their chances. 

  Pittsburgh could upset Indy if their offense plays better and their defense is up to snuff.  They need to get Willie Parker loose against the Colts, and exploit the advantages they now have that they didn't have the first time around.

Washington could beat the Seahawks if their defense plays lights out (like it has all season), and Mark Brunell burns the secondary on a few deep balls to Santana Moss.  I was very tempted to pick the Redskins to win the rematch as well.

Carolina's defense is good enough to keep Chicago off the field.  The main thing for Carolina though, will be forcing turnovers and giving their offense good field position.  Chicago's defense is really good, and will be tough to score in when they have a long field.  Carolina though, has some of the best offensive players in the NFC on their roster.

New England is playing better than they were last time they faced Denver, and it is really amazing that this team has gone 10-6 despite having 10-12 players on injured reserve at a time.  Last time they were at Denver, they lost 28-20 in a game that was 28-6 before Tom Brady tried to engineer a comeback.  However, New England had about a dozen defensive players on the injured reserve at the time.  I think that a healthy New England team will play much closer, and could possibly pull the upset.  After all, in the past 5 years, New England hasn't lost a postseason game.

  Marcus Vick's done many dumb things in his life, but this takes the cake.  He's had sex with a fifteen year old girl, served alcohol to minors, and wasbeen charged with possession of marijuana.  All of this happened between February and August of 2004.  It looked like his legal troubles were over, until now.  Lately, his on the field problems include flipping over West Virginia fans and stepping on Dumervil's ankle.  Even worse is that he has now been charged with speeding and driving on a suspended license.  And now he thinks that somebody out there is going to waste a high draft pick on him. 

  If it hadn't been for his infamous incedent in the Gator Bowl and his incident with the police, perhaps Vick would be a high draft pick.  After all, it appeared that he had straightened himself out.  However, he has shown that he still has major character issues, and this has been brought out by both his on and off field behavior.  What he really needs to do, is to transfer and keep himself out of trouble. 

  Marcus Vick could transfer to another Division I-A school if he hasn't been redshirted yet, spend a year on the bench, study hard, and stay out of trouble.  Then his senior year (after a redshirt), he could come back and, on the right team, be a Heisman candidate and send his draft stock soaring.  Or even if he went to a I-AA school, he could still help his draft stock if he played well and stayed out of trouble.  Both of these options could at least raise his status to a first day pick.  NFl

   However, with legal (and sportmanlike) problems in his recent history, he would be lucky to go before the sixth round.  He might not even get drafted.  And if that's the case, he won't get a chance to prove himself on the college gridiron again, as the NCAA committee wouldn't allow him to.  In which case, he's stuck working out to be a quarterback, and trying to stay out of trouble, to be nothing better than a second day pick. 

  Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals:  Seeing as both teams are better on the road, and both teams have beaten the other on the road, I'm not sure if home field is an advantage for Cincinnati.  They are playing for all it's worth, as I hear on the local news that they are trying to avoid selling to Pittsburgh fans.  Nonetheless, the Bengals defense, which has given up 37 points per game in each of the last too games, isn't quite good enough to get past the first round.  Pittsburgh 31, Cincinnati 27

  Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots:  Both these teams are playing the disrespect card for all it is worth.  But when one team is 12-4, they are getting some respect, and the other one is the defending Super Bowl champions of the past two years, so they are definately getting some respect.  Sorry if I don't see it.  Anyways, the game is at Foxborough, and Jacksonville is in Florida.  I was just down there and there's a guy from Boston in a tee shirt and shorts, while the native Floridians were bundled up in hoodies and sweatshirts.  I can't believe 60 degrees is considered cold.  It's a lot colder than that in Foxborough, and I don't think Jacksonville will be able to overcome the frostbite.  New England 24, Jacksonville 17

  Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers-  Another Florida team, but this one is playing at home.  Tampa Bay is all excited to see their Bucs going into the playoffs.  However, the Redskins are a little hot, and they are a very dangerous team at this point in the season.  Just hot enough to pull off the upset.  Washington 20, Tampa Bay 17

  Carolina Panthers at New York Giants-  A few weeks back, in the regular season, the Giants gave the Seahawks all they could handle, and only a few missed field goals by Jay Feely, each one of which would have won the game, was the only reason the Giants didn't beat Seattle.  This team is possibly the best team in the NFC, though I still think Seattle is better.  And they certainly aren't going to lose to Carolina.  New York 35, Carolina 24

  Yes, USC had compiled a huge list of errors during the game, including Reggie Bush's lateral, Matt Leinart's lame ducks, and burning a time out before a Texas 2 point attempt.  But for all that, they might have still had a chance to win-  if they had 30 seconds.  But those seconds were ticked off the clock, never to come back again, no matter how unfair it might be.

  So one would ask:  What makes you say that this time was taken off the clock unfairly?  During the game, with about 6:29 in the fourth quarter (if I recall correctly, but I know it was right around 6:30 somewhere), a Texas receiver was forced out of bounds to end the play.  However, the game clock never stopped.  At about 6:03 in the fourth quarter, Texas snapped the ball to begin the next play.  The announcers called the game noticed it and mentioned it once, but didn't dwell on it.  However, the time discrepency was there and done with, and those 26 seconds would never be added back to the clock.

  Did the failure of the time clock crew change the outcome of the game?  That quation is impossible to answer.  My first thought is that it probably didn't have much effect.  Texas would have simply used one less timeout to make their drive and burned off about 20 to 30 seconds more than they did.  They would have found a way to get the ball back to USC with less than 30 seconds left.  However, perhaps Texas would have scored in the same amount of time using basically the same plays, and given USC the ball back with 45 seconds to work with, instead of 19.  That would make it an entirely different ballgame with Matt Leinart having completed about 80% of his passes during the second half.  USC could have scored a touchdown to win- if they had those extra 26 seconds to work with.  It may have turned out the same, in fact, it probably would have turned out the same.  But what if?

  After last night's showdown between Penn State and Florida State went into triple overtime, I think the Rose Bowl is going to have a tough time beating that.  All I can say is wow!

  A few notes on the game:

First, the scoreless first overtime shouldn't have been scoreless.  Penn State should have won that first time around.  They made a huge mistake in playing for the field goal right away after FSU missed.  You don't bet anything on a field goal after your freshman kicker misses from 29 yards out.  That may have been a fluke, but they should have at least gotten closer.  Kelly (PSU's kicker) hasn't nailed one from 40 plus yards this year, and the attempt was from 38.  Get closer! 

Second:  FSU's missed extra point ultimately cost them the game, at least if it would have played out the same on everything else.  17-16 Florida State would have been a huge upset.

Third:  Penn State missed some opportunities to put the game away in the second half.  A turnover at the five yard line cost them at least 3 points, if not more, and that turnover also led to FSU's tying field goal.  Much of that offense may have come from the momentum from the turnover.  Another missed field goal from 29 yards let the game go into overtime tied at 16.  Assuming FSU doesn't get the field goal (to tie) and doesn't give up the safety (stupid mistake), and Penn State converted on those opportunies, the score would have been 24-13 (or 14 if you like, FSU shouldn't have missed the XP), or at least 20-14.  However, the mistakes made it go into overtime, and produced the best bowl game of this year, rather than a relatively boring defensive battle won by Penn State.

Finally, I do agree with PSU's decision to go for three when Kelly decided that he was ready.  It was a 29 yard field goal, and the best time to kick is when your kicker is feeling confident.  If Kelly walked out on the field, he was obviously feeling comfortable with the kick.  Even if he missed from 29 and 38 earlier, you let him try again for the win, especially if it is only second down, and you have two more downs to work with.  Imagine how shaken Kelly's confidence may have been if PSU hadn't let him try from 29 yards.  That would show absolutely no confidence in the kicker, and he may have missed any further field goals in the game.  Good move by PSU.

Unfortunately, I missed most of the first half of the game due to my job as a busser.  I have tivoed it, so I will get back to further overanalysis after I watch the first half, at least if it's worth it.  But I think that is likely the best bowl game we're going to see this year.

  AFC South

Indianapolis Colts:  Win the Super Bowl, and go for an undefeated season next year.

Jacksonville Jaguars:  Beat a good team that isn't playing with a back up.

Tennessee Titans:  Start Billy Volek, get a good running back.  What if Reggie Bush drops (like Aaron Rodgers)?

Houston Texans:  Get an offensive line that can stop my grandmother from sacking David Carr. 

AFC North: 

Pittsburgh Steelers:  Beat the Bengals.  Get rid of Tommy Maddox.  Get Charlie Batch game ready.

Cincinnati Bengals:  The rush defense definately needs help.  Find a way to hold Larry Johnson to say, 180 yards instead of 200 in next year's game.

Cleveland Browns:  Get a few wide outs for Charlie Frye, and try to make him the next Ben Roethlisberger.

Baltimore Ravens:  Step up the defense, and this included keeping Ray Lewis and Ed Reed off of injured reserve. 

AFC East: 

New England Patriots:  Beat Indianapolis and win yet another Super Bowl.  If not, get a name brand wide out, and keep players healthy.

New York Jets:  Develop Brooks Bollinger so he is ready when (not if) Chad Pennington gets hurt. 

Buffalo Bills:  Find an offense, develop J.P. Losman, and resign Kelly Holcombe.  He's the best guy they have for winning.

Miami Dolphins:  Find a QB that is able to win games (talking San Diego into trading Philip Rivers would really help here). 

AFC West: 

San Diego Chargers:  Further develop the secondary and offensive line.  Find a way use LT even more. 

Denver Broncos:  Find a good quality backup for Jake Plummer.  Win the Super Bowl.

Oakland Raiders:  Find a QB that can throw the deep ball well.  Offensive line.

Kansas City Chiefs:  More consistency on defense.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks:  Win the Super Bowl.  Come to an agreement with Shaun Alexander.

San Francisco 49ers:  Find an offensive line.  Defense is important.  Play as well on the road as they do at home.

Arizona Cardinals:  Develop Josh McGown into a starter, and KEEP HIM THERE!!!  He can be a good QB given half a chance.

St. Louis Rams:  Commit to running the ball more.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles:  Find a great wide receiver (via free agency) that doesn't have a big mouth (think Santana Moss of the Redskins).

Dallas Cowboys:  Get a good young QB that will stay in Dallas for longer than a year.

Washington Redskins:  Trade Lavar Arrington for as much as he's worth.  Keep Mark Brunell, and further develop Jason Campbell and Patrick Ramsey.

New York Giants:  The defense needs help, and Eli Manning needs to connect more than 55% of the time.

NFC South:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Trade Brian Griese, and start Chris Simms.  Need a legit number one wide receiver.

Carolina Panthers:  Make Jake Delhomme more consistent.  Figure out the running back situation. 

Atlanta Falcons:  Make Michael Vick a true double threat by making him a better pocket passer.  Atlanta also needs a number one wide out.

New Orleans Saints:  Draft Matt Leinart and get him reps at QB.  Draft (or trade for) a good running back (draft note:  Maybe Jerome Harrison of Washington will fall to the second round). 

NFC North

Green Bay Packers:  Get a good starting QB (assuming Farve will retire).  Get some offensive linemen.

Detroit Lions:  Need a good starting QB.  Get rid of Joey Harrington.  Find a running game.

Minnesota Vikings:  Stay out of trouble (no more sexboat or Whizzinator scandals).  Find a new deep threat replacement for Randy Moss.

Chichago Bears;  Develop Kyle Orton into at least a ready backup so that when (again, not if) Rex Grossman gets injured, he can do even better.  Which leads me to the next resolution for the Bears, which is nearly impossible:  Keep Rex Grossman off injured reserve.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers:  This is a rivalry game, so that must be taken into account.  However, neither team is playing for anything but pride in this game.  San Diego has already been eliminated from the playoffs.  Denver has already tied up the second seed and a first round bye, while the Colts have already won home field throughout.  But Denver will probably rest a few starters at some point in preperation for a playoff game in two weeks, and San Diego will pull off the win.  San Diego 27-20

New York Giants at Oakland Raiders:  Oakland's offense is full of rather potent weapons, they just seem to have an inability to use them well.  Meanwhile, New York's offense with Tiki Barber, Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, and Eli Manning isn't anything you want to mess with.  New York 30-17

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons:  The Falcons are playing for a win, but the Panthers want in the playoffs.  Besides, Michael Vick is way overrated.  Carolina 24-17

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns:  How is it that Baltimore has won two straight, and scored over 30 points in both of those games?  I guess the NFC North has some pretty pathetic defenses.  But this is the AFC North, and the Browns have a slightly better defense.  Also, Charlie Frye is hot.  So I'll take the Browns in a close one.  Cleveland 17-14

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers:  Shaun Alexander says the TD record doesn't mean anything to him.  I don't believe it for a second, coming from the same guy who threw a fit when his team didn't put him in so he could be the rushing champion.  The good news is, Seattle will probably put him in at some point to let him have his record.  And even though they're resting a lot of people, their starters will be in just long enough to get a good lead.  Seattle 17-14

Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts:  Indy has tied up the first seed in the AFC, and has lost the perfect season.  They aren't playing for anything.  Despite that, it doesn't take much to beat Arizona.  Jim Sorgi will have his first 300 yard game in his career, and the Colts second stringers cruis.  Indianapolis 27-13

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs:  Both teams are coming to play.  Cincinnati wants a third seed, so that they can travel to Denver rather than Indy in the second round.  Kansas City needs San Diego to lose on Saturday, and Pittsburgh to lose to Detroit, but if that happens and they win, they're in.  Even if San Diego wins, it's a home game.  I don't like any team playing in KC.  Kansas City 34-31

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots:  New England, with a win and Cincinnati loss, gets the third seed.  That comes in handy in dodging the Colts for a round.  But it also makes a tougher draw in the first round, playing (probably) Pittsburgh at home, rather than a wussy Florida team from Jacksonville that doesn't know what cold is.  Anyways, New England 27-17

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets:  This is a dogfight, as in, both teams are dogs.  Buffalo is slightly better though, especially with Holcombe at QB.  Kelly Holcombe is underated, and will tear a new arse for the Jets.   Buffalo 24-14

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers:  Really, is there any way that the worst team in the NFC North (Yes, this is the worst team, despite the Packers having a worse record) can beat a team that simply needs to win to make it the playoffs?  Besides that, the Steelers are at home.  Pittburgh 34-6.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  The Saints will not beat Tampa Bay, especially since a win would give Tampa a division title.  Besides that a loss, a Texans win, and a few other lucky bounces could give New Orleans the first pick.  The Saints are only a few stars away from going 8-8 or better.  But this year, New Orleans stinks.  Tampa Bay wins 34-10

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars:  Well, Jacksonville has already wrapped everything up, but I still don't see them losing to a division rival, and a pathetic one at that.  Jacksonville 20-14

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers:  If the Texans win, everybody should stop accusing them of losing for Reggie Bush, including the loss to Tennessee.  A win here takes them out of the top spot in the draft.  And with how bad the 49ers are, Houston will throw the top draft pick to the wind for a win.  Houston 21-17

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings:  Chicago has wrapped up a first round bye, so are they really inclined to win?  Their defense is good though.  Despite that, I see the loveboat team getting a winning record, as I just don't see Chicago putting forth a full effort for the win.  Minnesota 27-14

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles:  A win puts the Redskins in the playoffs.  I can see that happening, as Philly just hasn't been up to snuff this year.  Is it yet another Madden curse?  Washington 24-7

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys:  Bill Parcell's squad can get into the playoffs with a win and a few lucky bounces.  I don't know about the Redskins losing, but I don't see the Cowboys losing either.  Dallas 27-10

Yes, I know this is late, but hey, I am an honest person, as will be born out by a few picks that I already know that I missed....

New Orleans Bowl-  Did anybody truly think Southern Miss was going to lose?  Nope, didn't think so.  In fact, I didn't expect Arkansas State to put up the fight that they did.  Southern Miss 27-10

GMAC Bowl-  I had a funny feeling that UTEP was getting more than they bargained for.  I thought Toledo would win, but not by 32 points.  Toledo 51-45

Las Vegas Bowl-  I had relunctantly pegged California for a bowl win, keeping in mind that BYU was hot.  Perhaps I wouldn't have been if I could have seen that Cal would run away with it before BYU made a comeback.  But yeah, Cal 31-28

Poinsetta Bowl-  Navy was 7-4 coming in, and ran over CSU, just like I thought they would.  Navy won by 21, but I had a 3 point margin of victory in mind, like say, 28-24

Fort Worth Bowl-  Would anybody in their right mind have picked Houston?  Well, I haven't lost my mind yet, but I did think Houston would win by 3, not lose by 29.  Pre game pick:  Houston 35, Kansas 31

Hawaii Bowl-  I had George O'Leary's bunch from Central Florida capping their great comeback season, rather than getting beat by Nevada on a missed field goal.  Really though, can't blame it all on the kicker after he was perfect on extra points in the first 60, as well as being 3 for 3 for field goals, all of them from 40 plus yards.  They lost 49-48 because they didn't have a defense, but before the game, Central Florida 42-38

Onward now, to the bowl games that haven't yet happened at the time of this post...

Motor City Bowl-  Memphis and Akron square off in this bowl.  Akron, the team that (supposedly) never had a chance to win the MAC title, but somehow did.  Memphis is a decent team with an absolutely great running back that is almost surefire first round material.  And as much as I would love to see DeAngelo Williams win the last game of his storied college career, Akron really is too hot to pick against.  Akron 34-31.

Champs Sports Bowl:  Clemson over Colorado.  Colorado is the best team in the Big 12 North, but that isn't saying much, seeing as they lost 70-3 to Texas in the Big 12 title game.  Clemson 35-17

Insight Bowl-  As much as I would love to see Rutgers win their first bowl game in 27 years, Big East play hasn't even prepared them for a 6-5 team from another major conference.  My heart hopes Rutgers win, but my brain says Arizona State will take it.  ASU 37-28

MPC Computers Bowl-  Nobody could really say it was an upset, no matter who won this bowl.  Boise State hasn't lost at home in a long time, but Boston College is one of the best teams in the ACC.  The ACC is pretty tough.  Keeping that in mind, Boston College will bring Boise State's win streak on blue turn to an end.  BC 31-28

Alamo Bowl:  This bowl has two 7-4 teams, but really, these teams aren't anywhere close to one another.  Michigan was the only team to beat Penn State, and Nebraska was lucky to beat Pitt, you know, that 5-6 Big East team that everybody thought would be good but wasn't.  Yeah, the Big 12 stinks.  Michigan 35-13.

Emerald Bowl:  Georgia Tech caps a craptacular, underachieving season by playing a craptacular, underachieving team.  Yeah, Georgia Tech needs somebody a lot better than Utah to have a chance of losing.  Sorry Utah, but it's not happening.  Fortunately, Georgia Tech's offense isn't that great, so it won't be total humiliation.  Just a bit of a blowout.  GT 28-10

Holiday Bowl:  Oregon needs to watch out, as there was a 10-1 Cal team that got dominated by a 7-4 Texas Tech team last year.  Now we have a 10-1 Oregon team facing a 7-4 Oklahoma team.  Oklahoma though, lost to four teams that have a combined record of 40-5.  Those are some really good teams.  The one though, was a UCLA team that Oregon didn't get to play.  But Oklahoma has gotten better since then....   Oklahoma 27-24

Music City Bowl:  Virginia's alright, but Minnesota has Laurence Maroney to back them up.  Nope, this running attack won't be stopped.  Minnesota 35-20.

Sun Bowl:  What's the over/under on this?  80?  Sorry, it might go over that.  We have two offenses that are spectacular, but neither team has a defense.  However, I'm inclined to think UCLA is slightly better.  UCLA 48-45

Independence Bowl:  South Carolina's Steve Superior will finish his comeback by beating the second worst team in the Big 12 North with a winning record.  Fortunately, Kansas saved their whole division from going winless in bowl games.  Missouri wouldn't do it.  South Carolina 38-17.

Peach Bowl:  All defense, no offense.  This is just the opposite of the Sun Bowl.  It won't be great entertainment, but it will be one heck o####ame.  Miami 16-10.

Meineke Car Bowl:  South Florida is the alum of a pretty cool guy, and he's going to Charlotte to see it.  I hope USF wins for his sake, but from an unbiased perspective, NC State 17-10.

Liberty Bowl:  Well, we have Fresno State against Tulsa, and both have identical 8-4 records.  Yeah, it really sucks that Fresno State packed it in and lost to Nevada and Lousiana Tech upon getting the bowl invite.  Wait two more weeks, and Fresno State might be 10-2.  Nonetheless, they will win this, and it won't be close.  Fresno State 45-27

Houston Bowl:  TCU is the best mid major this year, except perhaps Fresno State, except I can't give them the title after losing to Nevada and Louisiana Tech, even if they were the best mid major.  So yeah, anyways, why is it that TCU gets another crappy Big 12 North team to beat up on?  This team is a choke artist.  Anytime Iowa State could have taken the lead or (gasp!) won the Big 12 North, they lost.  Maybe it was smart not to get oneself in a game against Texas...  Hmmm....   Anyways, TCU 45-21

Cotton Bowl:  Alabama is not as good as everybody thought, after they got exposed by losing to LSU and Auburn.  They are still a very good team with a very good defense.  They don't have an offense though.  Texas Tech is a decent team with a spectacular offense, but still a very solid defense.  I don't like those two 'quality' wins over I-AA opponents though.  Sissies.  Alabama's defense is good enough for this though.  Bama 16-13

Outback Bowl:  Urban Meyer hasn't lived up to expectations, but then again, all the Florida fans expect an SEC title every year, which is much of the reason why Steve Spurrier is in South Carolina.  His team's thrilled just to be in a bowl.  Urban Meyer won't make his team any happier by winning against Iowa in this bowl.  They will, but the fans won't be happier.  Florida 28-17

Gator Bowl:  Another choke artist:  Virginia Tech.  Their two biggest games against Miami and Florida State, both with the ACC title on the line, they lost.  They were fortunate Miami lost again to give them the ACC title game berth, but it was wasted.  And it's not like it was close.  No, 27-7 against Miami, and it was 27-3 against FSU (at the end of three quarters).  Of course, with all expectations gone, VT mounted a nineteen point comeback to come close, but still.  Sorry.  Louisville couldn't win a road game to save its life against a halfway decent team.  They proved that at South Florida.  They also lost Brian Brohm.  Sorry, but the game isn't at Papa John's stadium....   Virginia Tech 30-10

Capital One Bowl:  Uh, Barry Alvarez?  I'd love for you to win your last game as Wisconsin's head coach.  I really and truly hope your team comes to play, and I will be rooting for them.  Unfortunately, I think Auburn is on fire right now, and they are just too hot to handle.  This is the best team in the SEC right now.  Auburn will win handily, let's say 27-10.

Fiesta Bowl:  Charlie Weis was at New England last year, and his team shredded the NFL's best defense for yards and points in the AFC championship game last year, by scoring 41 points against Pittsburgh.  Being a Steelers fan, I hate that.  Anyways, this offensive coordinator has a month to plan for Ohio State's defense, and he's going to score points.  Ohio State's only hope is to make it into a shootout and score more than 30 points.  However, I don't think they can.  Notre Dame 35-24.

Sugar Bowl:  West Virginia is the best team in the Big East this year.  Not that it means much though.  Georgia is a decent SEC team, but it just seems like the SEC is down this year.  The top tier teams don't seem to measure up with the other top tier teams.  However, this is the Big East that they are playing.  The Big East stinks.  WVU stinks.  Georgia 16-7.

Orange Bowl:  Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden will talk about the good ole days down in Miami over drinks, just before the ball drops.  Paterno's team made a great comeback to go 10-1 this year, and they are one play from perfection, with a passing TD at Michigan with one second left being the difference between 10-1 and the Orange Bowl, and 11-0, and in all likelihood (since the computers loved PSU), a shot at the Trojans.  Florida State, on the other hand, went 7-1, then tanked the last three games upon winning the division.  However, unlike Virginia Tech, which lost just enough to avoid the BCS, FSU won their three toughest games at Miami (also in the Orange Bowl), against Boston College, and the ACC title game against Virginia Tech.  They are better than everybody thinks.  So, in this game, I will take PSU 21-17.

Rose Bowl:  If this game were played immediately after the regular season, I think Texas would win.  They are better on offense, defense, and special teams.  However, Pete Carroll is USC's coach, and they are 3-0 for their last 3 January bowl games under him.  None of them were particularly close.  So, in looking at this, I think Pete has a plan, and this game won't be particularly close either.  Yes, I think the national title game will be a let down.  USC 45, Texas 28.

 This is every person's worst nightmare, and Tony Dungy is living it.  Who would ever want to find out that their son had died only a few short days before Christmas?  Even worse is the probability that James Dungy had taken his own life.  With this happening to Dungy, I seriously doubt he really gives a damn about how good the Colts' season is now.  No parent ever wants to have to attend any one of their children's funerals.

  This is truly a tragedy.  No coach, no person, in their right mind, would want this to happen.  It is now obvious that there are more important things than football.  If you asked Dungy, or any other coach that was also a parent, which they'd rather have:  a championship season (with the loss of one of their kids), or a winless season, each and every one of them would take the winless season without even thinking about it. 

  This truly makes me sick.  I see the NFL commercials about it being the season for football (as a spinoff of the Holiday Season), and this makes how obvious how cheap a shot that is.  There is no way, no how, that football's important would even begin to compare to the importance of a person's family and friends, especially around this time of year.  If it did, that person has some seriously messed up priorities.

  So I send all my best wishes to Tony Dungy, his family, friends, players, and everybody that has had the benefit of meeting the man.  I also wish the best to each and every person that ever knew James Dungy.  I hope that all of them can pull through this rough time and just find hope and peace in this truly tragic situation.  I will have them all in my thoughts and prayers.  Peace to you all, and have a Merry Christmas the best that you can. 

  And yeah, I know that anybody that is reading is thinking how badly this is written, but something like this truly leaves you at a loss for words.  I am not even a parent, but I just have to get this out of my system, and wish everybody associated with Dungy in any way the best wishes in getting through this awful time.

  Assuming that the Houston Texas lose out for the rest of the season, including a loss at San Francisco to the 49ers (which is really about a 50-50 proposition), they will end up with the top draft pick in the 2006 draft. 

  There is also a certain young man from USC, a tailback named Reggie Bush, that is perhaps the best tailback in college football right now, and will probably be a surefire top draft pick next April. 

  Here is the question then:  Should Houston take Reggie Bush with the top draft pick?  My answer is NO.  One would wonder why that is.  Here is the answer:  Houston would not be able to use a tailback of his caliber without a good offensive line to block for him.  And Houston DOES NOT have a good offensive line.  So far this year, through the first 14 games, Houston has allowed David Carr to get sacked 61 times.  That is quite a few, and almost on pace to break the NFL record of 76 sacks in a season, a mark also set by Houston's inept offensive line.  David Carr's QB rating is actually 77.1, and it's a wonder that it's that high with the defense constantly around him. 

Domanick Davis is actually having a somewhat disappointing season, but he is still on pace to pass 1000 yards rushing.   And with the team that he is getting it on, he is doing very well.  He could do even better on a team with a great offensive line, like perhaps Indianapolis or Pittsburgh. 

But the point is, Houston doesn't really need another tailback.  They need to get the foundation for their entire offense together, which is an offensive line.  No team can do well without good blocking up front.  Houston's team is living proof of that.  Reggie Bush's talent would be wasted on their current team, since Reggie Bush is a speed back.  He isn't good at getting the really tough yards, but he is a threat to break one long.  Just like Amos Zeroue.  Has anybody heard of him?  Famous Amos used to play for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and then he was traded to the Oakland Raiders.  He was always a threat to bust one deep, but he was also a threat to get tackled five yards behind the line of scrimmage by a blitzing safety.  Reggie Bush, being a speedy, but not overly tough tailback, is kind of the same way.  He's a threat to bust a long run, but in the NFL, where those little guys in the secondary are still flat out tough, he's also a threat to get stuffed behind the line.  And with an offensive line like Houston, he's just as prone (if not more prone) to getting stopped for a loss than he is for bushing a long run.  So I really don't like the idea of Houston drafting Reggie Bush.

So what should Houston do with their top overall pick?  Trade it.  They shoulddangle it out there and try to work a deal with a team like Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, or Carolina.  In this deal, Houston would get an offensive lineman (perhaps Mike Wahle or Marvel Smith), the other team's first round pick, and one or two late round picks.  With this deal, Houston would pick up a veteran offensive lineman, a couple late round picks, and would dispose of the pressure to take an all star all talent player that they don't have the tools to utilize- yet .  With some good offensive lineman, Houston might be pleasantly surprised at how good David Carr and Dominack Davis really are.....

  Brett Farve is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time in the NFL.  Everybody knows that.  He is the ONLY reason, in my opinion, that Green Bay has even won ONE game this year.  He may be having an off season this year, but Green Bay is riddled with injuries.  I don't even know how many wide outs out of Green Bay's top five (for this year) are actually healthy.  I think there might two of them.  That's not giving him much to throw to, and that's why he has more picks than touchdowns this season.

Nonetheless, he's come a long way from Mississippi.  He was recruited by Southern Miss as a defensive back, and started out SEVENTH on the quarterback depth chart that year.  By the third game of his freshman year though, he was starting.  He soon became legendary in Hattiesburg, and is still considered the greatest player to ever play college ball there. 

But I don't think I need to go on and on about how great Brett Farve is.  Everybody who knows anything knows that the man is a living legend, and that he is a shoo in for the Hall of Fame.  Everybody who knows anything about the NFL knows who Brett Farve is.

What you may not have realized though, is that tomorrow night he will likely be playing the LAST prime time game of his storied career.  Green Bay has only three games left this season, and Monday night at Baltimore is one of them.  But even if Farve plays another year at the Packers, it is very unlikely that he will play another Monday night game.  Monday night tends to pick good teams from the season before to play.  In other words, since both Baltimore and Green Bay were good teams that had winning seasons last year, they can play each other this year on Monday night, even though they have a combined record of 7-19.  Next year, since both teams have had losing seasons, it's highly unlikely either one will be featured on a prime time game.  And it's doubtful if Farve will stay for the 2007 season.  So chances are, this is the very last Monday night game that Brett Farve will play.  And I intend to watch whatever I can of it, as a fitting tribute to the greatest quarterback that Green Bay has ever seen. 

What should the Bears do?  Why should they continue starting a rookie when they have a veteran QB of three years ready to play?  Isn't it logical that a three year veteran would be a better QB than a rookie?

And here are the answers to those questions:  1)  Continue to start Kyle Orton.  2)  Kyle is winning games, enhancing the Bears' level of play, and as funny as it may sound, he has actually played MORE games than Rex Grossman has, and 3) While it is logical, it is not necessarily true in this case.  Rex Grossman has only started SIX games in his NFL career.  Kyle Orton actually has more starts.

So here is my case for the Chicago Bears to continue to start Kyle Orton.  First off, I think he is enhancing the level of play of the people around him.  This is because the offense and defense realize that they do not have much margin for error with a rookie QB, and they have to give him all the help they can give him.  Thus, the offensive line is doing absolutely everything they can to protect Orton and give him time to throw, his receivers are doing everything they can to help him throw the ball, and his running backs are trying to buy him time by pass blocking, and taking pressure off the pass by running the ball as well as they can.  In the meantime, the defense is keeping the opponents off the scoreboard because they know that it's up to them to win the game, since the offense doesn't have much scoring potential, and by doing this, they are relieving some of the pressure off of Kyle Orton.  So playing Kyle Orton is elevating the play of the other 21 starters on the offense and defense.

Also, Kyle Orton has been playing most of the season, and he has established a bit of a connection with his receivers.  He has been working with Muhsin Muhammad, Justin Gage, Thomas Jones, and Desmond Clark.  He's been taking snaps with those guys and the rest of the starting offense for the whole year, and he knows what to expect of them, and they know what to expect of him.  Throwing Rex Grossman in would mess up the the offense, because they wouldn't know what to expect of one another.  This late in the season, when a team is trying to get into the playoffs, is not the time to change something that is already working.

Besides that, Rex Grossman seems to have a tendency to get injured.  He has been on injured reserve most of last year, and has spent all of this seaon (so far) on the bench because of a leg injury.  Is it really wise to start a QB that is prone to getting injured, and in fact, has been injured probably about 1 out of every 10 games he's played in for the NFL (counting preseason, to be fair)?  I would say the Bears should start Kyle Orton, as he's showing potential, and has established himself with the other guys on offense.  And they should continue to start him next year, and he'll grow into the role, establish a rapport with his receivers, and be as good as anybody else, if not better.  This is far fetched, but he could be the next Carson Palmer with a bit of time.

Rex Grossman, as much as he gets hurt, should be traded for a receiver or a draft pick.  He isn't the guy to lead this team deep into the playoffs.  Sorry Rex. 

Florida State is a much better team than they are given credit for this year.  Everybody says that Penn State is going to blow them out, but Florida State can give them a really tough time, and even pull the upset, if the Seminoles come to play. 

Consider this:  Florida State beat the three toughest teams in the ACC.  Miami was hosting Florida State in the Orange Bowl for the very first game of the year, and they came into the game (more than likely) expecting to continue their recent dominance over the Seminoles.  However, the team from Florida State had different plans, as they pulled off a major upset in a defensive battle, and established themselves as a major player in the ACC. 

Two weeks later, Boston College, a sleeper pick for the ACC Atlantic Division, visited the Seminoles.  FSU sent them packing with their tail between their legs after a 28-17 win.   Florida State continued to roll on to a 7-1 start, and had clinched the Atlantic Division title after playing 8 games.  So with a loss to Virginia to knock them out of the Rose Bowl picture, and a 5-1 conference record to give them a berth in the ACC title game, FSU really had nothing left to play for with 3 games left in the regular season.  This showed, as the 'Noles played like they had nothing to play for.  Three consecutive losses ensued, coming to North Carolina State 20-15, Clemson 35-14, and Florida 34-7. 

After losing in such spectacular fashion to three teams that were also-rans, everybody had written off Florida State to win the ACC title game.  Coming in as a 14 point dog to Virginia Tech, Florida State established dominance right away, and cruised to a 27-3 lead before the Hokies even realized what was happening.  Even though the Hokies staged a comeback in the fourth quarter to cut the lead to 5 points, they never came closer than that.

So how is it that a team that beat Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Miami (FL) is being written off as unworthy of a BCS berth, and as an easy win for Penn State?  Perhaps FSU isn't deserving of a BCS berth (personally, I don't think they deserve one), but they are the ONLY team in the ACC that did what they needed to do, according to the system set up by that conference, to get a BCS bowl.  Virginia Tech choked in the title game, and Miami choked against Georgia Tech to eliminate themselves from title contention. 

As far as an easy win for Penn State, maybe the 'Noles do have 4 losses, but it should be obvious considering who they beat, that when they put their minds to it, they can win against almost anybody.  They beat a highly touted Miami team, a one loss Virginia Tech team, and a pretty good team from Boston College.  Despite their four losses, they will give PSU a run for their money if they put their mind to it.  So the Orange Bowl can be a classic for the ages, IF the Seminoles come to play...

  And this year's Rose Bowl could be the best one ever played.  USC and Texas are playing for all the marbles, as both come in with 12-0 records and offenses that can hang up 50 points on pretty near anybody.  However, college football fans might want to get ready for a let down.  After last year's edition of the national title game, where USC completely annihilated Oklahoma to the tune of 55-19, we have USC looking for a threepeat, while Texas is this year's Big 12 representative in the national title game.

  Why am I saying this when everybody else is saying that this is going to be the past bowl game ever?  I am simply looking at history, and history tends to repeat itself.  USC's Pete Carroll is an awesome coach, and the talent at Southern Cal is just amazing.  Some NFL scouts think Pete Carroll could have 40 future NFL stars on his roster.  Besides that, USC has won every January bowl game they've played in over the past 3 years, and each one of those has been by a considerable margin.  Three years ago, USC beat Iowa in the Orange Bowl to the tune of 37-16.  Two years ago, the score was 28-14 over Michigan in the Rose Bowl, and that win gave USC the AP National Championship.  Last year, USC beat Oklahoma 55-19 in the Orange Bowl, and the game was over by halftime.  The main thing these games have in common is that each and every one of them were played after Pete Carroll had several weeks to get his team ready to play.  This trend continues.

  Look at what happened when USC played UCLA in the very last game of the season.  Pete Carroll had two weeks to prepare his troops, and proceeded to pound the Bruins 66-19.  On the other hand, USC had only a week to prepare for Notre Dame, while Notre Dame had two weeks to prepare for the Trojans.  The result was much closer, and USC had to pull out the win on the very last play of the game for a 34-31 escape. 

  So if Texas and USC played in the regular season, Texas is the better team, and the Longhorns would win, provided each team only had one week to prepare.  But Pete Carroll has a month to rally his troops for a national title showdown in the Rose Bowl, and the result isn't going to be the awesome game that will go down to the very last play that everybody thinks it's going to be.  In fact, I think USC will win this game by two scores.  Pete Carroll never loses when he has this much time to prepare, and in fact, the other team usually isn't close.  So when the final gun sounds, USC will walk off the field with a 45-28 victory over Texas.