Coming to the end of my look at all of the teams in the NBA this season, here are five of the top six or seven teams in the league.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these clubs finish first overall, and this group could end up in just about any combination, 1 through 5.  So here are the top competitors to represent the West in the NBA Finals.

5.  San Antonio Spurs

Last season, the Spurs started to show their age for the first time, getting worn down against Phoenix and then New Orleans before succumbing to the Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.  Still, they handled the Suns with relative ease and managed to climb back to beat the Hornets.  They were even a healthy Manu Ginobili away from having a nice shot at toppling L.A.  But Manu wasn’t healthy, and he’s managed to make matters worse by playing Internationally during the off season and further worsening his bum ankle.  It’s difficult to tell how much time he’ll miss to start the season, probably no less than a month, and no guarantee he’ll be back at 100 percent at any point this year.  Like Golden State with Monta Ellis, much of this season’s hopes rest on how successfully Ginobili returns.  The Spurs obviously needed to get younger this off season, but have failed miserably.  European star Tiago Splitter turned down their offer to come to the league, and draft pick James Gist also chose Europe over signing in San Antonio.  About all they did do was sign extraneous guard Roger Mason away from the Wizards.  Mason has possibilities, and he did show nice shooting range and scoring ability during his time last season in place of the Washington’s numerous injured stars, but he’s far from a sure thing.  One guy they can count on is Tony Parker, who is now coming into his prime.  I expect Parker will be among the top players in the league this season, taking up some of the slack left by Ginobili, and they do still have Tim Duncan.  The Spurs could get it all together and win again, but I think age further catches up with them, they slip a bit in the standings and a first round exit is a real possibility.

4.  Utah Jazz

After going years with only a handful of top notch point guards, it seems like we’re at the beginning of a resurgence in the league at that position, and Deron Williams is at the forefront.  After his first three years in the league, Williams is behind only Chris Paul and possibly Tony Parker in the point guard hierarchy, and you can make a case that he may be the best.  Utah is one of the youngest teams in the league, and they have already won three playoff series and reached a conference final.  They’re only going to get better.  The addition of Kyle Korver last season added the final piece to making the Jazz a genuine threat in the West with his consistently good three point shooting.  Andrei Kirilenko is a head case, but he played much better last season than the year before, and was very good in the Olympics.  With an array of young players improving almost by the day like Ronnie Brewer, Paul Millsapp and possibly high school draftee C.J. Miles, Utah is definitely on the rise.  Carlos Boozer, in my mind, is their one drawback.  He was so ineffective in the Olympics that his own college coach kept him parked deep on the bench in what few important minutes there were for Team USA.  I said earlier about Dwight Howard that FIBA basketball is not a good showcase for interior post players, and Boozer definitely suffered from that, but he was also far less than stellar during their playoff run last season.  I don’t think the Jazz will be a genuine threat for a title until they find a true heir apparent to Karl Malone in Jerry Sloan’s system, which means, I think either a trade of Boozer should he continue to struggle in key spots, or more likely, the Jazz let him walk as a free agent, allowing someone like The Heat to pay him big money for small clutch results.  I’d say the Jazz are once again one of the best in the league at home, and this year, they avoid the early season lull like last year.  They flirt with the top seed, but end up with home court in the first round and a fighter’s chance at another conference final.

3.  Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are nearly everyone’s pick to hold on to the top spot in the West and take this year’s title.  They’re not mine.  They will, without question, have one of the best half a dozen records in the entire league, and be a significant factor in the postseason, but I still believe they are a flawed team in all the wrong places to be a true champion.  Just looking at their finish last season, only two wins away from a title, makes Los Angeles appear closer to championship form than they really are.  First, losing in six games made the Finals look like they were competitive.  In reality, the Celtics were clearly far superior to the team L.A. put on the floor.  And if it weren’t for Manu Ginobili’s balky ankle, they might not have even gotten that far.  Kobe Bryant successfully defended his reputation as the best player in the league, a title I think he’ll struggle to hold on to for much longer.  As great as he is, Bryant still has a tendency to fade away at times when he’s on the floor, especially defensively, and to shut out nearly everyone else when he looks to score.  Andrew Bynum, by all reports, is healthy.  His return to the upward track he set out on last year will be essential to any hopes of a repeat in the West, a whole lot of pressure on a 20-year-old who Kobe himself wanted dumped this time last year.  How well Pau Gasol blends with an actual post-up center is another key.  Gasol would do well to take some lessons from his brother about aggressiveness and play in the paint.  If he ends up shooting too many jumpers, he’ll lose a lot of the value he brought after the trade last year, no matter how well Bynum plays.  And there is just no excuse for Lamar Odom still being on this team.  For the Lakers to step up, their defense has to get much, much better and that’s going to take more than just the return of an inexperienced 20-year-old.  Still, there is lots of talent here, and size, although in height only that doesn’t necessarily translate into physical play.  The Lakers will overwhelm a lot of teams and they’ll be at or near the top all season, but unless a trade is made, their defensive shortcomings will lead to a shorter post season run than last year.

2.  New Orleans Hornets

Chris Paul is the guy I think will be the league’s MVP this season.  In just three years, he’s brought the Hornets back from irrelevancy to a contender status that they’ve never really known, either in New Orleans, Oklahoma City or Charlotte.  He’s made David West an All Star, helped Tyson Chandler actually perform near his talent level, and brought on an unexpected rejuvenation for Peja Stojakovic.  There can be little doubt that the presence of Paul on the floor makes everyone else better.  And now they have the physical defensive capabilities of James Posey, along with his proven clutch three point shooting.  I also look for young Julian Wright to keep growing into a force, helped along by the leadership of Paul.  The bench is a little suspect, but nothing that a couple of shrewd in-season pickups won’t fix.  P.J. Brown didn’t join the Celtics until almost March last year, and look how valuable he ended up being.  Look for New Orleans to be right in the hunt all season, and be a very difficult team to get past.  A run to the Finals is a definite possibility.  To me, Chris Paul seems as if he’s one of those players like Michael Jordan or LeBron James.  They absorb experience, learn from it, and don’t repeat it often.  Lose in the semifinals one year, and you can almost guarantee a trip beyond that point the next.  I suspect Paul learned a big lesson in watching the Spurs come from behind to beat them and advance.  We’ll see what comes of that schooling this year.

1.  Houston Rockets

Not the most popular or respected pick, but after thorough consideration, I’m sticking with the Rockets as my choice to not only rise to the top of the West, but to win the title.  Basically, it came down to one thing.  The Lakers were unable to add a player like Ron Artest or even James Posey, and the Rockets and Hornets did.  If the Lakers had made the trade for Artest, and Houston didn’t exactly give up the farm to get him, they would be in this spot.  It’s not that Artest himself is such a difference maker, it’s that he brings a package of skills that tends to put good teams over the top.  Like a handful of other teams, injuries or the lack thereof, will largely rule the day.  Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming don’t necessarily need to play all 82 games for the Rockets to be successful, they just need to be reasonably healthy at the end of the season and into the playoffs.  Rafer Alston showed a growth and maturity in his game last season that I never thought would come, but he is 32 and also at risk for injury, and the lack of a quality backup would make his loss a damaging blow as evidenced by the first round series against Utah.  Artest will only add to an already solid Houston defense.  Flashy offense is what always get the headlines, but defense is still what wins championships.  And now, Houston has more scoring with Artest and a more-NBA-acclimated Luis Scola who, if he’s not starting, will be an early front-runner for Best Sixth Man.  I think they’ll start well, stay reasonably healthy, be ready come playoff time and all the talk of McGrady not being able to get out of the first round will be forgotten, just like it was for Kevin Garnett.  Houston beats Detroit in six games.

Next up:  A look at the top rookies

Okay, no more criticizing the Lakers.  Geez, you'd think I insulted people's mothers or something.  The Lakers are a lock to win 70 games this season, and they'll go undefeated through the playoffs.  Kobe Bryant is the best player in the history of sports, Andrew Bynum will be the best center in the league this year, Pau Gasol will learn to play tough and Lamar Odom will finally bring the intensity every night.  I'm a convert.  Go Lakers!

No, really, I stand by everything I've said prior to that last paragraph.  The actual games may not bear me out, but I usually have good instincts about these things.  And I am already really excited to see how this season will play out.  Especially to watch Andrew Bynum.  I haven't seen him play all that much, compared to most other guys who will be under the kind of pressure he will be this year, and I really want to see whether or not he's the difference maker a lot of people seem to think he is.  Plus, I want to watch Portland and Golden State.  The Blazers are nearly everyone's pick to rise up into the West's pecking order, and I'd like to see Greg Oden actually on the floor for a change.  I'm still undecided about how much better they will be (or if they will be better at all).  The Warriors have a completely different look and I'm very curious to see what that means on the court.  They have talent all over the place, but are young and generally defenseless.  They are one of the teams I'm most interested in seeing in games that count.

I was watching some of the playoff games from last year, most notably the Houston-Utah series, the other day,  just to refresh myself with the Rockets to make certain I hadn't gone off the deep end as some have suggested.  One thing I realized is that I have probably underestimated the Jazz.  I am admittedly not the biggest Carlos Boozer fan, and AK 47 is a tad flighty to put it mildly, but I had forgotten about guys like Corey Brewer and Paul Milsap.  I've seen Kyle Korver play a lot when he was with the 76ers, and his role as designated 3-point shooter in Utah is a perfect fit for him, especially since he has few other skills.   But Deron Williams is why I've changed my tune.  He really is exceptional.  I still think Boozer is probably the Achilles heel for the team that will bring them down in the postseason, but they are clearly better than I had previously stated, and if they can improve upon their 19-29 road record of last year (including the playoffs) they can make the West a five horse race.

Wow, is Josh Howard an ####.  I still have a little optimism (very little, and fading by the day) about the Mavericks, I don't think they are done as many have said, but real championship contention is most likely out of the question.  If Howard's random acts of stupidity force Dallas to trade him, they will get nowhere near value in return at this point.  If they dump him just to clear him out, the Mavs will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs.  Drag Racing!  What a ####.

Does anybody really like International basketball?  I've been watching some of the Team USA warm up games and I just can't get into it.  The flow of the game is off somehow.  Admittedly, the games are warm ups, maybe the actual competition will be better, but I've never really enjoyed International games all that much in the past.  I think the team might actually be too deep.  No one gets the number of minutes they probably should and that's got to affect the rhythm within their own games.   I do like the physical play on the guards, though.  I think the NBA went too far in stopping contact on the perimeter.  It seems a little hypocritical that someone in the paint can get hammered and the chances of getting a foul called are about 50/50, but if you look cross-eyed at a guard out over the three point line, it's almost always a foul.

It's just not that exciting to me.  Of course, watching an All-Star team blow people out by 50 points doesn't make for enthralling television.  Even that "hard-fought defensive struggle" against Russia that they won by 20 points wasn't particularly interesting.  I never got the feeling that Russia could actually win that game.  There are probably only two or three teams that can beat the U.S., and I expect that will only happen if they get complacent in blowing people out.  I just hope the Olympics end without anyone suffering a major injury.  Can you imagine the backlash if Kobe or LeBron or Chris Paul blows out a knee somewhere along the way?  And for what?  Representing your country?  Come on, the guys in body armor, risking their lives in Iraq are representing their country.  These guys are playing in a basketball tournament on the cheap for an organization that reaps billions from "amateur" athletics and makes the NCAA look like a humanitarian group.  I can understand why NBA owners don't like their players competing in this.  Do you think the IOC or USA Basketball is going to reimburse an NBA team for their loss if someone gets hurt?  Wouldn't hold my breath.