On The Rise

Here are five guys who’s games are about to emerge into stardom.  Each one is in a good situation on just the right team to excel.  By the end of the season, these guys will be talked about among the better players in the league.

1.  Rodney Stuckey, Detroit

Billups-lite, Stuckey emerged in the playoffs during Chauncey’s brief absence and showed the makings o####ame ready for prime time.  His rookie season was marred by injuries early, and that may have prevented what could have been a rookie-of-the-year type season and been the reason he was such a surprise in the playoffs.  He will continue to grow into what will soon be a cornerstone role for the Pistons, taking minutes away from Billups all the while.

2.  Al Thornton, L.A. Clippers

Tall, skilled and athletic, Thornton has got to be relishing the opportunity to play in an up-tempo offense directed by Baron Davis.  Young Al, one of several University of Florida players scattered around the league who look like they might have the goods to be solid pros if not more, will be a regular on nightly highlight reels finishing what Davis starts.  Plus, playing in the same frontcourt with Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby can only give Thornton more space to operate.  He’s in a great place to succeed, and I never thought I’d say that about a guy on the Clippers.

3.  Travis Outlaw, Portland

One of Portland’s many and varied young talents, Outlaw showed stretches of his potential during last season’s surprising run at respectability.  Outlaw is tall, 6’9” at least, quick enough to drive past most defenders, and has the makings of a nice shooter with three-point range.  To me, he’s a natural scorer, and his game only lacks the maturity to not press, and improve his shot selection.  He’s got the physical tools to defend at least adequately, and coach Nate McMillan will accept nothing less.  Portland has as much talent as any team in the league, and this season, that will start to translate into success.  Outlaw will be a huge part of that.

4.  Linus Kleiza, Denver

I used to love Drazen Petrovic.  His death was one of the great tragedies, in my mind, o####uy cut down just as he was reaching stardom.  Kleiza looks to be the second coming of Petrovic.  They even look somewhat alike with similar body types, and Kleiza showed flashes of a well-rounded offensive game at times last season.  His shot was good, if a little streaky, and he showed the quickness and the handle to get to the basket when possible.  He is also aggressive and fearless, not afraid to take shots.  Defensively, Denver is going to struggle even more than usual this season, making scoring that much more important.  The wide open game means that Kleiza is going to get an opportunity to show his stuff.

5.  Luis Scola, Houston

Scola came on strong as the season wore on for the Rockets.  By the end of the year, he was even garnering some support for beating out Kevin Durant for Rookie of the Year.  Scola is a high energy player, with a nice offensive game.  He’s also physical, and not afraid to defend.  On a Houston team that was lacking scoring at times, Scola will be a solid option for points, along with newly acquired Ron Artest.  He probably won’t start, as Shane Battier gives Houston a more versatile defensive lineup, but he will get lots of minutes and be a difference maker for the Rockets.  Letting Scola go will be seen as one of the few personnel mistakes made by the San Antonio Spurs in recent memory.  Scola has a solid shot at the Sixth Man award.

Others To Watch:  Rajon Rondo, Boston; Julian Wright, New Orleans; Al Horford, Atlanta; Danny Granger, Indiana; Joakim Noah, Chicago

 

On the Decline

Here are some guys who are staring on the downslope of what have been some pretty good careers.  Each of these guys, either through circumstance or loss of skills, will be transitioning into lesser roles, some of them on other teams.

1.  Ray Allen, Boston

Allen went through most of this season’s playoffs as less than useless.  He was, at times, the only defensive liability on the floor for Boston, and his shot wasn’t just off, he wasn’t even close.  For a guy who’s supposed to be such a great pure shooter, that’s a very disturbing trend.  He’s either losing a step to age or he’s just not a good fit on the team.  I think it’s a bit of both.  In any case, he will continue to backslide and will be the first of the big three to go.

2.  Peja Stojakovic, New Orleans

Peja had a nice rejuvenation last season, and he is in a nice place to keep it going as part of Chris Paul’s show featuring lots of open threes in transition.  But, as Bruce Bowen showed in the playoffs, put an actual defender in his face, and he struggles mightily.  Plus, with the addition of James Posey, more of the late-game attempts will be heading his way because of a penchant for actually making important shots, unlike Peja.  This season will mark the beginning a fade-out for Stojakovic to a lesser role, especially if he remains with the improving Hornets. 

3.  Chauncey Billups, Detroit

This one is more situational than performance.  With the emergence of Rodney Stuckey, a player with eerily similar characteristics, Billups will see his role start to diminish.  As Stuckey improves and his minutes go up, Billups’ minutes will go down.  The past couple of seasons, Chauncey ran out of gas by playoff time, and his post season performances were up and down.  The reduced minutes will probably help him keep fresh legs in May and, hopefully for Detroit, June, but because they are such similar players at the same position, the once irreplaceable Billups will now become a redundant piece heading for a new team next year, if not sooner.

4.  Manu Ginobili, San Antonio

Ginobili is a lot like Dwayne Wade in my eyes.  For him to be effective, he has to be able to play with a near-reckless abandon, throwing his body around without regard for consequences.  He’s also 31, and he has put a lot of mileage on the engine, with the long championship NBA seasons and International play for Argentina.  Still, last year was Ginobili’s best so far before injuries finally shut him down in the playoffs.  He’ll miss at least a month to start this season after ankle surgery, maybe more, and who knows how long it will be before he’s 100%.  A repeat of last season’s success is less likely than a repeat of the injuries that doomed it for the Spurs.

5.  Lamar Odom, L.A. Lakers

Odom may still put up good numbers somewhere for a few more years to come, but if his consistency and clutch play doesn’t improve quickly for the Lakers, he’ll be the first guy out the door.  Most players would prefer to be the guy who’s skills add to a team and who’s addition would put them over the top.  But Odom’s presence may be holding the Lakers back, and his subtraction could be more valuable to them.  After both the Clippers and the Heat gave up on Odom and his great potential, a Laker team on the cusp of greatness moving him out will be the deathknell to his championship hopes.  What contender is going to want a highly-paid guy who has ultimately been a disappointment everywhere he’s gone?

Others To Watch:  Antawn Jamison, Washington; Vince Carter, New Jersey; Steve Nash, Phoenix; Marcus Camby, L.A. Clippers; Zydunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland

 

On The Way Out

Here are some guys who are on their last legs as regular players.  Some will retire, some will become deep situational reserves on good teams, if they’re lucky.  It’s also not a coincidence that four of these guys have been traded recently.  But this year will be their swan song from being big contributors. 

1.  Bruce Bowen, San Antonio

Bowen is 37 and his days as a premier defender are past.  Unfortunately for him, his three point stroke seems to be leaving him as well.  He could still be a useful spot defender, but without the one thing that made his less-then-limited offensive game bearable, after this season, his time being more than an occasional reserve playing small and sometimes non-existent minutes is done.

2.  Jermaine O’Neal, Toronto

This is O’Neal’s last shot at a comeback.  If he spends more than half of this season injured, or can’t get the strength and quickness back into his game, he’ll be finished.  The Raptors will be let down in their hope that O’Neal could revive a once-promising career, and Jermaine will never again be anything more than a longshot, if he doesn’t walk away altogether.  One thing he was always lacking is the will to comeback and play o####rant Hill.

3.  Ben Wallace, Cleveland

Wallace was never the most gifted athlete, needing to work harder than everyone else to survive.  He may still have the will, and that’s debatable, but his motor is just not there any longer.  He’s become increasingly ineffective for long stretches, and that will only get worse as he continues to age.  Without more help than Cleveland currently has, he’ll have to play a lot of minutes, and that will further expose the not one, but two steps he’s lost.  Big Ben may hang around after this season, but because he’s such a massive liability with his free throw shooting, he’ll never be more than a spot bench reserve.

4.  Shaquille O’Neal, Phoenix

This will be Shaq’s last hurrah.  He may not retire, he himself has suggested he will stay through 2010, but if there is any game left in him, he’d better show it now.  Shaq has never been one for excellent fitness, and because of his size, it’s only a matter of time before leg injuries end his playing days.  It may not be one big one, but it will always be something.  That and the fact that he is a severe liability defensively and with his free throw shooting, and his offensive game has slowed to a crawl.  It will be harder and harder for any head coach to justify keeping him on the floor.  If he has any dignity, he’ll retire after this season before he embarrasses himself.

5.  Jason Kidd, Dallas

Kidd is another player who’s defensive liabilities and lack of shooting will ultimately mean severely curtailed minutes as a reserve.  He’s slowing down, can’t even disrupt the quicker guards who are populating nearly every team in the league, and is not even a threat to take a jump shot, making it tougher on the other four guys in half court sets.  He needs to run to be effective, but he’s 35 and not that fast, and up-tempo against quicker guards further exposes him as a defender.  What Sam Cassell did for the Celtics this season is about the best Kidd can hope for in the future.  Much sooner than he thinks.

Others To Watch:  Michael Finley, San Antonio; Luke Ridnour, Milwaukee; Alonzo Mourning, Miami; Brad Miller, Sacramento; T.J. Ford, Indiana

 

Next Up:  The last installment in my preseason ramblings, Fifteen Guys Who Would Be King.

 

Coming to the end of my look at all of the teams in the NBA this season, here are five of the top six or seven teams in the league.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these clubs finish first overall, and this group could end up in just about any combination, 1 through 5.  So here are the top competitors to represent the West in the NBA Finals.

5.  San Antonio Spurs

Last season, the Spurs started to show their age for the first time, getting worn down against Phoenix and then New Orleans before succumbing to the Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.  Still, they handled the Suns with relative ease and managed to climb back to beat the Hornets.  They were even a healthy Manu Ginobili away from having a nice shot at toppling L.A.  But Manu wasn’t healthy, and he’s managed to make matters worse by playing Internationally during the off season and further worsening his bum ankle.  It’s difficult to tell how much time he’ll miss to start the season, probably no less than a month, and no guarantee he’ll be back at 100 percent at any point this year.  Like Golden State with Monta Ellis, much of this season’s hopes rest on how successfully Ginobili returns.  The Spurs obviously needed to get younger this off season, but have failed miserably.  European star Tiago Splitter turned down their offer to come to the league, and draft pick James Gist also chose Europe over signing in San Antonio.  About all they did do was sign extraneous guard Roger Mason away from the Wizards.  Mason has possibilities, and he did show nice shooting range and scoring ability during his time last season in place of the Washington’s numerous injured stars, but he’s far from a sure thing.  One guy they can count on is Tony Parker, who is now coming into his prime.  I expect Parker will be among the top players in the league this season, taking up some of the slack left by Ginobili, and they do still have Tim Duncan.  The Spurs could get it all together and win again, but I think age further catches up with them, they slip a bit in the standings and a first round exit is a real possibility.

4.  Utah Jazz

After going years with only a handful of top notch point guards, it seems like we’re at the beginning of a resurgence in the league at that position, and Deron Williams is at the forefront.  After his first three years in the league, Williams is behind only Chris Paul and possibly Tony Parker in the point guard hierarchy, and you can make a case that he may be the best.  Utah is one of the youngest teams in the league, and they have already won three playoff series and reached a conference final.  They’re only going to get better.  The addition of Kyle Korver last season added the final piece to making the Jazz a genuine threat in the West with his consistently good three point shooting.  Andrei Kirilenko is a head case, but he played much better last season than the year before, and was very good in the Olympics.  With an array of young players improving almost by the day like Ronnie Brewer, Paul Millsapp and possibly high school draftee C.J. Miles, Utah is definitely on the rise.  Carlos Boozer, in my mind, is their one drawback.  He was so ineffective in the Olympics that his own college coach kept him parked deep on the bench in what few important minutes there were for Team USA.  I said earlier about Dwight Howard that FIBA basketball is not a good showcase for interior post players, and Boozer definitely suffered from that, but he was also far less than stellar during their playoff run last season.  I don’t think the Jazz will be a genuine threat for a title until they find a true heir apparent to Karl Malone in Jerry Sloan’s system, which means, I think either a trade of Boozer should he continue to struggle in key spots, or more likely, the Jazz let him walk as a free agent, allowing someone like The Heat to pay him big money for small clutch results.  I’d say the Jazz are once again one of the best in the league at home, and this year, they avoid the early season lull like last year.  They flirt with the top seed, but end up with home court in the first round and a fighter’s chance at another conference final.

3.  Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are nearly everyone’s pick to hold on to the top spot in the West and take this year’s title.  They’re not mine.  They will, without question, have one of the best half a dozen records in the entire league, and be a significant factor in the postseason, but I still believe they are a flawed team in all the wrong places to be a true champion.  Just looking at their finish last season, only two wins away from a title, makes Los Angeles appear closer to championship form than they really are.  First, losing in six games made the Finals look like they were competitive.  In reality, the Celtics were clearly far superior to the team L.A. put on the floor.  And if it weren’t for Manu Ginobili’s balky ankle, they might not have even gotten that far.  Kobe Bryant successfully defended his reputation as the best player in the league, a title I think he’ll struggle to hold on to for much longer.  As great as he is, Bryant still has a tendency to fade away at times when he’s on the floor, especially defensively, and to shut out nearly everyone else when he looks to score.  Andrew Bynum, by all reports, is healthy.  His return to the upward track he set out on last year will be essential to any hopes of a repeat in the West, a whole lot of pressure on a 20-year-old who Kobe himself wanted dumped this time last year.  How well Pau Gasol blends with an actual post-up center is another key.  Gasol would do well to take some lessons from his brother about aggressiveness and play in the paint.  If he ends up shooting too many jumpers, he’ll lose a lot of the value he brought after the trade last year, no matter how well Bynum plays.  And there is just no excuse for Lamar Odom still being on this team.  For the Lakers to step up, their defense has to get much, much better and that’s going to take more than just the return of an inexperienced 20-year-old.  Still, there is lots of talent here, and size, although in height only that doesn’t necessarily translate into physical play.  The Lakers will overwhelm a lot of teams and they’ll be at or near the top all season, but unless a trade is made, their defensive shortcomings will lead to a shorter post season run than last year.

2.  New Orleans Hornets

Chris Paul is the guy I think will be the league’s MVP this season.  In just three years, he’s brought the Hornets back from irrelevancy to a contender status that they’ve never really known, either in New Orleans, Oklahoma City or Charlotte.  He’s made David West an All Star, helped Tyson Chandler actually perform near his talent level, and brought on an unexpected rejuvenation for Peja Stojakovic.  There can be little doubt that the presence of Paul on the floor makes everyone else better.  And now they have the physical defensive capabilities of James Posey, along with his proven clutch three point shooting.  I also look for young Julian Wright to keep growing into a force, helped along by the leadership of Paul.  The bench is a little suspect, but nothing that a couple of shrewd in-season pickups won’t fix.  P.J. Brown didn’t join the Celtics until almost March last year, and look how valuable he ended up being.  Look for New Orleans to be right in the hunt all season, and be a very difficult team to get past.  A run to the Finals is a definite possibility.  To me, Chris Paul seems as if he’s one of those players like Michael Jordan or LeBron James.  They absorb experience, learn from it, and don’t repeat it often.  Lose in the semifinals one year, and you can almost guarantee a trip beyond that point the next.  I suspect Paul learned a big lesson in watching the Spurs come from behind to beat them and advance.  We’ll see what comes of that schooling this year.

1.  Houston Rockets

Not the most popular or respected pick, but after thorough consideration, I’m sticking with the Rockets as my choice to not only rise to the top of the West, but to win the title.  Basically, it came down to one thing.  The Lakers were unable to add a player like Ron Artest or even James Posey, and the Rockets and Hornets did.  If the Lakers had made the trade for Artest, and Houston didn’t exactly give up the farm to get him, they would be in this spot.  It’s not that Artest himself is such a difference maker, it’s that he brings a package of skills that tends to put good teams over the top.  Like a handful of other teams, injuries or the lack thereof, will largely rule the day.  Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming don’t necessarily need to play all 82 games for the Rockets to be successful, they just need to be reasonably healthy at the end of the season and into the playoffs.  Rafer Alston showed a growth and maturity in his game last season that I never thought would come, but he is 32 and also at risk for injury, and the lack of a quality backup would make his loss a damaging blow as evidenced by the first round series against Utah.  Artest will only add to an already solid Houston defense.  Flashy offense is what always get the headlines, but defense is still what wins championships.  And now, Houston has more scoring with Artest and a more-NBA-acclimated Luis Scola who, if he’s not starting, will be an early front-runner for Best Sixth Man.  I think they’ll start well, stay reasonably healthy, be ready come playoff time and all the talk of McGrady not being able to get out of the first round will be forgotten, just like it was for Kevin Garnett.  Houston beats Detroit in six games.

Next up:  A look at the top rookies

Continuing on with the West, here are teams 6 through 10.  All five of these teams have the elements to be pretty good.  There are two veteran teams, two young teams, and one kinda in between.  Because the West is so strong, and each one of these teams is flawed in some way, nearly every one of them could make it into the conference’s top four or miss the playoffs altogether.

10.  Golden State Warriors

The injury to Monta Ellis keeps them down a little.  He’ll miss at least the first month of the season, maybe more, and who knows how long it will be before his injury is completely healed.  Ankle injuries tend to linger in the NBA, especially on a player who relies on quickness like Ellis.  They can only hope that it’s not an injury he’s plagued with all season.  Can Marcus Williams hold down the fort or will Chris Mullin make a trade, and will it be a good one?  The answers to those questions will largely determine whether the Warriors are in or out of the playoff picture.  Lacking Ellis’ offense, more pressure will be on Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette, but I suspect they’re both up to it.  Maggette will enjoy being unleashed in Don Nelson’s system, and I’ve always thought that Jackson might be the most underrated player in the entire league.  I expect Brandon Wright to improve across the board, as well.  I think they’ll tread water waiting for Ellis to get back to full strength, but fall just a little too far off the pace, and behind too many quality teams, to catch up.

9.  Los Angeles Clippers

Much like Houston, who I’ll discuss in the next section, a lot of what eventually happens during the Clippers’ season will depend on the number of games the key players accumulate on injured reserve.  Newcomers Baron Davis and Marcus Camby have long histories of injuries, yet both guys avoided such a fate last season.  L.A.’s other team has to hope that’s the start of a positive trend for them both.  If the duo plays at least 80 games each, I believe the Clippers will make the playoffs.  The frontline of Camby, Chris Kaman and superstar-to-be Al Thornton could be one of the best in the league.  If his minutes are kept down and his knees hold up, newly signed Jason Williams could actually be an effective backup for Davis.  Eric Gordon is a guy that I have a feeling will be talked about among the best rookies in the league by the end of the year.  But they are the Clippers.  Injuries will happen, if not to Camby or Davis, then it will be Kaman or Thornton.  L.A. will get close, probably after a good start, and fade just a little too far at the end.

8.  Phoenix Suns

The next two teams are basically interchangeable.  Phoenix and Dallas are linked in my mind in more ways than just their common employee Steve Nash.  They played similar up tempo styles, then have tried to transition to a slower pace, sometimes successfully as with the Mavericks a couple years ago, not so much with the Suns thus far.  Phoenix has a lot of talent, some of it young and improving.  If Shaquille O’Neal manages to stay on the floor consistently throughout the year, an enormous if, Amare Stoudemire could have a huge year freed up from the restrictions of playing center.  Boris Diaw has all the tools to be a stat stuffer in a number of categories, playing like a point guard from the post.  And Leandro Barbosa can score in bunches.  But they’re just too dependent on guys like Shaq, Grant Hill and especially Steve Nash, who are long in the tooth, to say the least.  Nash could have some troubles adapting to the change in style, and he did struggle with it after the Shaq trade and the playoff embarrassment against San Antonio.  Or he could miss time with injuries, always a possibility with his style of play at his age.  If either possibility turns into a prolonged problem, Phoenix will be in trouble.  They can compensate for lost time from almost anyone else, but if Nash goes down, the Suns will set before the playoffs even begin this season.  I think they’ll play very well in spots, but age, and games missed due to injury, will creep up on them.  Still, I think they’ll barely hold on to a playoff spot, and get to enjoy one last postseason stint, however brief, before this team will need a bit of a makeover.

7.  Dallas Mavericks

Falling apart against Golden State in the playoffs two years ago began a downward trend for this franchise.  They won 16 fewer games last season than the year before, and went out in the first round of the playoffs for the second straight time.  When Avery Johnson took over for Don Nelson, I thought that he was the perfect coach to take this group over the top, and things looked great right up until the collapse in game three of the Finals three years ago.  The next year, they looked poised to make up for that loss, but again were beaten.  Last year turned out to be a lost season, both in terms of wins and respect for Johnson as a coach.  He has clearly been outcoached by Pat Riley, Don Nelson and Byron Scott in consecutive postseason series, exposing his weaknesses for strategy and making adjustments.  Rick Carlisle can’t help but improve those flaws.  Unfortunately, this team has much more age under their belt than the one who almost took the title in 2006.  Jason Kidd is on his last legs, Dirk Nowitzki is on the wrong side of 30, and guys like Eddie Jones and Jerry Stackhouse aren’t finding the fountain of youth any time soon.  Still, they won 51 games last season, only six fewer than the number one seeded Lakers.  They still have Jason Terry and Josh Howard (flaws and all), they might have found something in Brandon Bass and 23-year-old Gerald Green will be given an opportunity to contribute to a team with some actual talent for a change.  Carlisle will put more emphasis on physical play and getting to the basket, and the return of DeSagana Diop sits Erick Dampier back where he belongs, moderate minutes as a backup center.  Dirk can excel playing this way, as evidenced by his MVP campaign two years ago.  He has the capability to drive, finish and make a very high percentage of a lot of free throws.  If he gets into the high 20’s or closer to 30 points per game, this team may be able to make a run.  They probably are too old and emotionally fragile to expect a trip back to the Finals, but they are fully capable of making some noise and being a much more difficult out than they have been the past two years.

6.  Portland Trailblazers

This is the new “It” team in the NBA.  Nearly everyone thinks Portland is headed for serious championship contention, if not Dynasty status.  I was a bit skeptical at first, but there is just too much talent here for them to fail.  Still, they are exceptionally young and more experience is needed before they can reasonably be expected to be title contenders.  If Greg Oden is anywhere near the player people expect, this season will mark the beginning a long streak of playoff appearances for the Blazers.  Brandon Roy could be headed for eventual All-NBA status, and the guy I’m most interested in is Travis Outlaw.  With good range on an improving jumpshot, a willingness to attack the basket with a variety of moves, and exceptional athleticism for a guy 6’9”, the ceiling for Outlaw could be as high as anyone on the team, and that’s saying something.  If Rudy Fernandez brings the shooting range and fearlessness he showed off during the Olympics, watch out.  But their youth will eventually do them in.  Oden, Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless are rookies; Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge have two season under their belts, Martell Webster and Channing Frye have played three seasons and Travis Outlaw is just now earning big minutes at age 23 after being drafted right out of high school.  No team made up of predominantly young players goes from the Lottery to the title without paying their dues, and with the West being so loaded, this season will be a learning experience for Portland.  Everyone else in the Conference who has designs on a championship had better take advantage now, because by the spring of 2010, the Blazers just might be the best team in the league.

Next Up:  The West’s Elite

Now that I’ve gone through the Eastern Conference, It’s time for the superior West.  Last season, the Western Conference was unbelievably strong, likely the most competitive array of teams one through ten in the history of the league.  This year, the top clubs are somewhat improved, but it’s probably not going to end up with the same clustered playoff picture where a team could go from out of the playoffs to 1st or vice versa in a matter of a just a couple of weeks.  Here are my opinions on the bottom third:

15.  Oklahoma City Thundercats

Okay, so that’s not really the name, but outside of Oklahoma, does anyone really care what they call this less-than-mediocre group?  Personally, I like my suggestion.  Imagine, Oklahoma City inbounding the ball and, as they bring it up the court, the PA announcer gets the crowd fired up with a chant of, “Thunder...Thunder...Thunder...Thundercats, ####!”  And I think that old Thundercats logo would look great on a jersey.  If Toronto can name a team after a cheesy dinosaur movie, then why not an old cartoon?  Their nickname notwithstanding, it’s going to take sight beyond sight to envision a time when this team is actually competitive.  This is the worst team in the league, hands down.  Kevin Durant may one day be a superstar, but not before he gets some actual talent around him.  If, by some freak chance, guys like Robert Swift, Chris Wilcox and Desmond Mason start suddenly playing up to their potential, they might be able to approach 30 wins.  Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook are the only other guys on the roster with any real upside, but it’s going to be at least a couple of years before that happens, if ever.  Oklahoma City might be thrilled to have a permanent NBA team now, but just wait until they have to suffer through the lean years that will result from gutting the roster to expedite the move.  Be careful what you wish for.

14.  Sacramento Kings

How the once almost-mighty have fallen.  I wanted to like Sacramento, I really did, mostly because Kevin Martin reminds me a little of Reggie Miller, but the trade of Ron Artest gave up a solid, all-star type scorer and defender for nothing more than a retread of a shooting guard in Bobby Jackson who was close to washed up before he left the Kings last time.  There is some talent here, but not nearly enough to compete in the West, and for every genuine player like underrated point guard Beno Udrih, there are two or three other guys like Jackson, Shelden Williams and Mikki Moore who would be overstating their value if I called them one-dimensional.  Has there ever been a guy with as much talent who has put up pretty decent numbers throughout his career and been as totally irrelevant as Shareef Abdur Rahim?  Brad Miller has got to be close to collecting Social Security by now, and I can barely recall why I was so high on Quincy Douby when he was drafted.  There’s just too much depth in the West for Sacramento to make any real noise.  Sadly, it seems like an eternity ago that the foursome of Webber, Divac, Stojakovic and Bibby put the Kings on the NBA map.  It may be a while before they find their way back.

13.  Memphis Grizzlies

I am actually somewhat optimistic about the Grizzlies, mainly because I suspect that O.J. Mayo is for real.  Forget Greg Oden, Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley, here is your Rookie Of The Year.  And I was surprisingly impressed by Marc Gasol during the Oylmpics.  If he comes to the NBA as a big, strong, space-eater not afraid to push people around with a couple of pretty decent back-to-the basket moves, the guard-heavy Grizzlies will cease being a pushover.  They might not win a lot of games this season, but they will be that dangerous team that can beat you if you’re not focused.  Probably a lousy road record but a respectable mark at home.  Rudy #### can score, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he and Mayo combine for close to 50 points a night.  But mostly, Memphis is all about questions.  Can Darko Milicic show some of the talent he came into the league with playing next to a genuine big guy like Gasol?  Will one or more of the guard trio of Kyle Lowry, Javaris Crittendon and Mike Conley show something this season?  Could Darrell Arthur possibly be the sleeper of the draft?  Young doesn’t begin to describe this team; the seven guys I just mentioned have a combined 10 years in the league, and three of those were Darko being stuck very deep on Detroit’s bench.  No chance whatsoever of them getting near the playoffs this season, but they are moving in the right direction.

12.  Minnesota Timberwolves

If you’re looking for a sleeper team that comes out of nowhere and has a nice little, completely unexpected stretch, this one is it.  It’s a shame they’re in the West.  If the Timberwolves played in the East, I would have seriously considered having them in the playoffs.  Kevin Garnett is unquestionably a great, all-time kind of player, but the suggestion that Minnesota got ripped off in that trade is flat wrong.  Al Jefferson is going to be a 20-10 guy long after Garnett has retired.  On draft day, I thought O.J. Mayo was going to make a fantastic outside to Jefferson’s inside for Minnesota for the next 10 years, but he was quickly traded.  If Kevin Love is even close to the kind of player some think he will be, landing him and Mike Miller from Memphis will save the Timberwolves from a black mark like Seattle earned when they drafted Scottie Pippen and then traded him for Olden Polynice.  Polynice turned out to be a halfway decent center who played for bunches of teams, but Pippen’s going to the Hall Of Fame with six rings.  A front court pairing of Jefferson and Love, along with Miller (the elder statesman of this team’s key players at the ripe old age of 28) and any of a number of young talent like Ryan Gomes, Craig Smith, Corey Brewer, Rodney Carney, Randy Foye, Rashad McCants and, yes, even Sebastian Telfair gives this team depth and flexibility.  But they are in the West where the learning curve is very steep, indeed.  There is no margin for error for the Timberwolves to get it all together, and being so young, so much can, and probably will, go wrong.  But don’t be surprised if they actually flirt with a playoff spot during the first half of the season.

11.  Denver Nuggets

This is what really separates the West from the East.  A team that would probably make the playoffs easily in the East isn’t even going to be in top 10 in the West.  Trading Marcus Camby definitely hurts, but it’s not like Denver hasn’t had to go long stretches without him on the floor in the past.  And I’ve always thought his defense was very overrated, anyway.  Sure, he blocks a lot of shots, and alters even more, but his straight-up defensive prowess isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.  He is to blocking shots what Allen Iverson is to steals.  No one would call A.I. a great defender, but he’s always near the league leaders in steals.  It’s easy to put up great defensive stats when that’s the only thing you’re trying for.  It’s Camby’s rebounding I think they’ll miss most.  If they manage to beat the odds and keep Nene and Kenyon Martin from going down, adding to their own long and storied injury histories, they will still have at least a presence in the paint and, who knows, maybe Renaldo Balkman actually has some defensive chops.  The guy I’m intrigued with is Linus Kleiza.  Watching the Nuggets late in the season and during their short-lived playoff stint, Kleiza’s play was giving me flashbacks of Drazen Petrovic, the former New Jersey Nets star who was tragically killed just as he beginning to emerge as a star.  With Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith and Kleiza, Denver will score tons of points.  Defense is their Achilles heel, however.  So what else is new?  The best they can hope for is that a couple of the other playoff-caliber clubs slip a bit, and they can slide into that eighth seed for another four or five game post season stint.

Next Up:  The Mid Majors

So LeBron James and Kobe Bryant are on record for saying that if someone from overseas were to offer them $50 million a season, they'd bolt from the NBA.  First off, who wouldn't?  Anyone that claims they would turn down this kind of outrageous money for one season for any reason, patriotism or otherwise, is completely full of it.  It's more than double the max contract the NBA will allow under current salary cap restrictions, and it's tax free!.  Not only would they be lying, they'd be stupid. 

This has to get David Stern's knickers in a twist.  For decades now, Stern has led the way in marketing the NBA based upon its best and brightest superstar players.  If, all of a sudden, there is a significantly better financial option for these guys, do you think its just going to be one or two who split?  It's going to be a flood of the top players in the league, as long as the money is flowing from European clubs.  And the NBA slowly becomes a league sporting the best of what's left over.  I wonder if he's rethinking all of that International marketing, and the push to allow NBA'ers into the Olympics as the original Dream Team that seemed like such a good idea at the time?

Worst of all for the League is that there isn't really a damn thing they can do about it.  There's no way Stern can allow NBA teams to match this kinds of money without totally scrapping the salary cap system, and that kind of upswing in pay around the league would make owning an NBA team a massive money pit.  Not to mention that the kind of parity we saw this year would be a thing of the past.  With no salary cap, high revenue clubs would dominate every year.  This isn't baseball where one player, no matter how great he is, cannot make you a champion.  In the NBA, one player is routinely the difference between 20 wins and 50.

There are only a couple of ways for the League to even try to deal with this.  One is to let them go, stick to your principles and hope that the huge money being thrown around by foreign teams runs out.  I mean, when you're paying one guy $50 million, that has to make it kind of difficult to turn a profit.  Business sense would have to kick in eventually, right?  Well, not if they guy writing those checks is a billionaire who spends $50 million a week on champagne, caviar and high-end escorts. 

Another is to set up some sort of punitive rules against players who choose this route.  Not sure exactly what those would be, but a buy-in to regain NBA eligibility would be an interesting  possibility.   Wanna go play in Europe, LeBron?  Okay, but when you want back into the NBA, you have to pay the League 40% of the money you earned over there, up front.  Otherwise, it was nice knowing you.  This wouldn't work either, and is probably illegal, but Stern has played hardball with guys in the past, and I could definitely see him try to punish guys for having the audacity of leaving his league.

Another way, and this would be more in keeping with Stern's sneaky corporate manueverings, would be to lobby for the IRS to get involved.  As it stands right now, the players keep all of this money, tax free.  Make a few well-placed bribes (sorry, we call them campaign contributions now) and change the rules and make this money taxable for U.S. citizens at something like 75% and that levels the playing field, unless they want to not just play overseas but defect as well.  Collecting a tax free paycheck is one thing, leaving the United States forever is quite another.  And they could even cloak this in rah-rah patriotism, "Keeping the best of America in America."

But probably the most effective way, and one that doesn't involve sticking it to guys who have every right to tell David Stern and his flunkies to shove it and sell their unique talents to the highest bidder, is some kind of eventual merger between the NBA and the Euroleague.  Two conferences, one in this half of the world and one in that half, everyone working under the same salary structures.  That still wouldn't rule out rogue billionaires throwing around big money from lesser leagues, but it brings most of Europe's big money players (the financial kind, not the basketball kind) under the NBA umbrella and theoretically benefits all concerned, with the exception of the occasional transcendent superstar, and there's always marketing dollars out there for them, even more so with a truly world-wide league.

Any way around it, the face of the NBA is changing far more quickly than I or anyone would have anticipated.  Major changes are coming if the NBA is going to stay the best league in the world and not just a footnote to the European Championships.  The next couple of years will tell the tale.  Both Kobe and LeBron have contracts running out, and someone from overseas will make a run at them.   And it now looks like it's going to take a helluva lot more than just trading Richard Jefferson to clear salary cap space to make a run at either of them.

A couple weeks ago, I wrote that I believed that the Houston Rockets, if healthy, were a better team than the Los Angeles Lakers. Not surprisingly, I was pretty roundly criticized. Well, it appears that the Rockets have now added Ron Artest to their lineup for Bobby Jackson and a first round pick down the road (plus another throw-in guy I've never heard of). If there was any doubt in my mind before, after this, there is no question to me that Houston is not just the best team in the West, but the best team in the entire league.

Let me say that this is not without risk. Injuries will always play a role on a team with T-Mac and Yao, and Artest has been known to bring down Championship contending clubs (see Indiana). But if things cut the right way for Houston this year, something that is always essential for a team to play for a title regardless of who they are, there will be another banner hanging in the Toyota Center in 2009.

I believe that this move hurts the Lakers on a couple of fronts. One, it makes a contender for their Western Conference crown that much stronger in all the right places to give L.A. problems come playoff time. And two, I really thought that, for the Lakers to truly move to the top of the heap, they had to add someone like Artest and subtract Lamar Odom. Well, that's not going to happen now, and it appears that Lakers' GM Mitch Kupchak may be done with personnel moves. After re-signing Sasha Vujacic the other day, Kupchak was quoted as saying that if they enter next season with the roster they currently have, he'd be thrilled.

While they are clearly a very good team, in my opinion, they've fallen behind Houston and New Orleans in the West already this offseason, and it is debatable whether or not they are actually better than San Antonio, especially if the Spurs add more to their bench. And I personally am not thrilled with the front line of Odom, Paul Gasol and Andrew Bynum.

To begin with, no one really knows what kind of player Bynum will be after the injury. He may indeed come back strong and be the player he appeared to be becoming before the injury, but how well will they mesh? Bynum in the middle will push Gasol to the outside, a place he already spends way too much time. If he ends up floating around the perimeter, taking more jumpers than he already does, he's just about useless. And what about Odom? He does too much of that as well. Will he be as willing to play in the post, or just stay outside while Bynum eats up space? I really don't like this combination of players, even if Bynum is healthy. Either Odom or Gasol has to be moved to get an aggressive perimeter defender who can at least match Odom's offense. With Artest apparently off the market, someone like Tayshawn Prince might fit that role and Pistons GM Joe Dumars has repeatedly said that everyone on his roster is available.

I, for one, don't believe the Lakers, as they are currently constituted, will win the West next year. It's not like they were head-and-shoulders above everyone else last season, anyway. Favorable playoff matchups against Denver and Utah and injuries to San Antonio had as much to do with their ascendance to the Western Title as their play. And they were exposed by Boston in the Finals. Houston, with Shane Battier, Ron Artest and Luis Scola, among others, have the kind of scrappy and/or defensive minded players that gave L.A. fits. If I was Mitch Kupchak, I wouldn't be satisfied because, chances are, they're not going to find another giveaway like Gasol during the season again.

This move also wipes out any possibility that Sacramento will be playing for anything other than Lottery position next year. I thought that they could have gotten a better return for Artest than used-up reserve guard Bobby Jackson. With Denver taking a step backwards, the eighth spot in the West is up for the taking, with the newly constituted Warriors looking like they could be the team to move into that position. Portland seems to be a common favorite to rise into the post-season as well, and The Clippers will be interesting if not good. Teams like Phoenix, Dallas, even Utah may have to watch their backs. So, with the Artest trade, here's how I see the West at the moment.

1. Houston
2. New Orleans
3. L.A. Lakers
4. San Antonio
5. Dallas
6. Utah
7. Golden State
8. Phoenix
9. Portland
10. Denver
11. LA Clippers

Wow, did Baron Davis' dreams of a winning return to L.A. vanish quickly.  I wasn't really sold on the the Davis-Elton Brand combo as a playoff ticket anyway.  For one thing, Brand--Mr. 20 and 10 as he's being called nowadays--has made the playoffs all of once in nine seasons in a league where over half the teams make the postseason.  Admittedly, he did play with some lousy teams with the Clippers and Bulls, but everyone should know by now that a good player on a bad team always puts up inflated stats.  Would he have a career 20-10 averages on championship contenders?  I don't think so.  And his one playoff appearance was on a team led by Sam Cassell when he could still play, a bonafide winner everywhere he goes.  I mean the guy helped lead Milwaukee and Minnesota to Conference Championship Series, not to mention his three rings with Houston and Boston.  Does Baron Davis have that kind of pedigree?  Nope.

The Clippers did win a first round series that year, but they beat the Nuggets,a perpetual first round whipping boy.  And they did take a Phoenix team without Amare Stoudamire to a game seven, but came up short.   All the promise in that team quickly vanished, however, and they were back to the same old Clips.  Davis, on the other hand, has been on a handful of playoff teams in his career, but never got out of the second round either.  Last year, he played in all 82 games, but he only played in more than 60 games twice in the previous six seasons, and never more than 67.  Keeping him healthy and on the court has always been an issue.

But now, that doesn't matter.  Brand is a new Philadelphia 76er and all the talk is about how they are championship contenders now.  Well, not quite.  For one thing, let's see what kind of shape he's in after missing all but 8 games last year before we anoint them as this year's Celtics.  There's a lot of talk about the good nucleus, and how they were up and coming before signing Brand.  Well, they do have some good young talent, but they were still 40-42 last year, in a season where they clearly over-performed in a really bad conference.  They did go up 2-1 on the mighty Pistons, but we all know Detroit has a tendency to lose games in the playoffs to teams it should stomp.  Once they fell behind, Detroit crushed Philadelphia handily in the last three games.  Did the Sixers actually win those two games or did the Pistons just sleep-walk through them?  I'm guessing the latter.

Does this mean Philly will miss the playoffs?  Doubtful in the mediocre east, but not out of the realm of possibility.  First of all, they need to match whatever deal is on the table for restricted free agent Andre Igoudala, then they have to keep everyone healthy and on the court.  Even at that, I still don't see them being much better than a lower playoff seed, first round exit kind of club.  And don't expect three teams at .500 or worse making the playoffs in the East again this year, so they'd better approach 50 wins, or they could be back in the lottery themselves.

As for the Clippers, I would throw the entire check book at Josh Smith and pray that the Atlanta Hawks won't be intelligent enough to match.  Or maybe make an enormous offer sheet to Igoudala just to drive up his price for Philly.  Nothing like a little gamesmanship, just ask the Warriors, who signed away the Clippers other best player, Corey Maggette.  Outside of that, and probably even with that, it's lottery time again.

Maggette, on the other hand, showed himself to be a true loser.  He was courted by virtually every legit title contender in the league; San Antonio, Boston, Detroit, Cleveland; for mid-level exception money ($5.8 million).  Instead, he took $10 million to take Baron Davis's place in Golden State, moving from one of the league's perpetual losers to another.  Golden State does have some talent, but even coach Don Nelson admits he's going with younger players this season at the expense of victories.  Backtracking from their 48 wins of last year isn't going to get it done in a conference where the eighth seed had 50 wins, and who really knows how good Portland can be?   He could have played one year with San Antonio or Detroit on a national stage, maybe taken home a ring, and still gotten a big payday next year.  Or better yet, two years polishing a championship resume then been in position to cash in on the salary cap space left over from the LeBron James losers.  But no, he took the money today over any realistic chance for a title.  Golden State may grow into a contender in two or three years, but in the West as of now, they're still a lottery team.  I guess he just wanted to stay in his comfort zone, watching the playoffs on t.v. rather than playing in them.  But hey, at least he can afford a nice couch.

By the way, I'm really hoping the Lakers trade for Ron Artest.  Talent-wise, he'd be a perfect fit for what they need, but is the Staples Center really big enough for the egos of Kobe and RonRon?  I can't wait to see how long they can go before being at each other's throats.  And Artest's not like Shaq, who will just childishly rip someone behind their back.  He'll smack Kobe upset his head if the mood strikes him.  After all, what's more fitting than the team from Hollywood having a little drama? 

It seems like I've been hit or miss lately. Not 24 hours after I made the strong proclamation that NBA superstars never leave their teams as free agents, Baron Davis opted out of his contract with the Warriors to, most likely, sign as a free agent with the Clippers. But hey, who could have expected a guy to take a $4 million pay cut to go play for the Clippers, of all teams, especially after their best two players, Corey Maggette and Elton Brand, both opted out to become free agents themselves? Now, you can argue (as I probably would) that Davis isn't really a superstar, but he is a great player that's clearly the the face of a franchise and team leader. Close enough.

And while Brand's opt out is most likely a play for what amounts to a contract extension, Maggette is as good as gone. And it looks like Gilbert Arenas may be gone from Washington, as well, although staying is still a possibility. If this were two years ago, or even last season, Agent Zero might have made a case for being a superstar. (By the way, is Agent Zero his nickname because of the number on his jersey or the number of late May and June playoffs games he's appeared in?) Now, he's coming off of a severe injury and nobody knows if he'll be his normal explosive scoring self, so the superstar tag doesn't apply. Same for Brand. Until we see if he's actually healthy and back playing like the MVP candidate he was three years ago, he's just another big name guy looking for a comeback season.

Davis himself is usually all about injured reserve, but he actually played all 82 games last year, right up to the point that Don Nelson benched him for the second half of the last game of the season. Apparently, that annoyed Baron so much that he left money on the table in Oakland to suit up for what is quite possibly the worst franchise in all of sports. Of course, if he can somehow win leading the Clips, he'll become legendary. After all, look what leading the New Jersey Nets to two straight NBA Finals did for Jason Kidd's reputation. Before that, he was just another wife-beater with a lousy a jump shot that Phoenix couldn't get rid of fast enough.

These three guys are most likely going to take home enormous amounts of cash this off-season, but my money's on the three of them not playing 82 games next season combined. Meanwhile, Maggette may be the guy most likely to rejuvenate his career. If, as the rumor suggests, he lands in San Antonio playing with great players and a great coach, gets his head on straight and remembers how he used to play defense, he may be hoisting a trophy this time next year while the other three are hoisting a cold one while watching the playoffs on TV.

While my free agency comment was a little suspect, I did, however, suggest that eventually, a big name player was going to head overseas for the money. When I wrote it, I expected it to be a year or two or three before someone tried it, but apparently, one of the top rated incoming freshmen in the country, Brandon Jennings, is strongly considering (i.e., taking the money and running) signing overseas instead of playing for the University of Arizona next year. The NBA had better be very, very careful with how they handle this.

In my mind, given the option of going right into the NBA, the very thought of playing in Europe would never, ever have been a factor. But now, faced with a year of essentially indentured servitude to the NCAA (especially for big time talents), real hard cash and actual professional-level instruction not only will become a factor, it's most likely the best decision. Now consider, if Jennings dominates over there, presuming he goes, builds a fan base, gets some international marketing dollars, will it be all that easy to get him back? After all, he will still have the NBA rookie pay scale to adhere to.

Tiago Splitter stayed in Europe this year instead of coming to the Spurs because of the rookie scale. Guard Juan Carlos Navarro of the Grizzlies, despite showing promise and most likely lining up for a nice payday, split back to Spain, primarily because being paid in Euros is now better than being paid in dollars. I'd be willing to bet somewhere David Stern is praying Brandon Jennings is a massive flop. Otherwise, there could be big, big problems on the horizon for the NBA. Isn't Internationalism great?

Converting to Euros

I was reading the NBA rumors this morning, trying to absorb all of the trade talk when I read one particular piece of news that could signal trouble brewing down the road.  Previously, I mentioned my dislike for the age limit, but I hadn't considered the financial repercussions thoroughly.  The news item was about Brazilian forward Tiago Splitter reneging on his agreement to join the San Antonio Spurs next season in favor of a four year extension with his current team, Tau Ceremica of the Euroleague, primarily because they can pay him several times what the NBA's rookie pay scale would allow.

Now consider, you're a LeBron James or a similarly gifted young American coming out of high school.  Your choices are play in the NCAA for peanuts, sit out a year and wait for the NBA (two years soon, if David Stern has his way and increases the age limit) or go play in the Euroleague right now for big bucks.  And after your initial contract with a Euroleague team is up, even if you're a star, you will still have to be restricted by the NBA rookie cap to come back home.  And that doesn't even consider that, in the Euroleague, you'll get paid in Euros, which are currently running pretty strong against the dollar.

What's to stop the best and brightest of American basketball youth from bolting overseas?  Patriotism?  And how difficult will it be to get them back in the NBA with the rookie wage scale?  How many stars will it take before Euroleague ball starts to compare favorably to the NBA in quality of play and competition?  It would be a bit ironic if David Stern's emphasis on international marketing of the game created a competitive market where the NBA would suffer, similar to what happened to the NFL in the early '80s with the USFL plucking stars, including several eventual Hall of Famers, right out of college.  The rookie wage scale could be a problem with NCAA stars, as well. 

As it is now, bolting overseas is seen as a last ditch effort by players who want to continue their careers but can't get on an NBA roster.  Most high schoolers and college players don't even consider the option.  But if it becomes more difficult to even get into the league, and can take up to five years from high school graduation to get paid what you're actually worth, that option may not stay with just fringe players.  A big-name talent, someone weighing these options, is going to open that door eventually and take the money.  And my guess is it will happen soon.  And when America's best start to spurn the NBA to go overseas, how long will it be before the international players that pepper NBA rosters today head back to their homes?  Now, the NBA is unquestionably the best league in the world, and everyone who's anyone wants to play with the best.  What happens when that designation is no longer so clear cut?

Stern would do well to carefully consider his decisions on these issues and cut it off before it becomes a possible nightmarish reality for the League, or we soon could be forced to watch late night feeds from Europe to see the best basketball in the world.

MVP: Most Valuable Player or Most Valuable Postseason?

It seems like nearly every year, the NBA's MVP voting would turn out remarkably different if it were held after the playoffs instead of after the regular season.  How many people still would have voted for Dirk Nowitzki last year after the Mavericks' historic collapse in the first round?  This year's MVP Kobe Bryant has a much stronger case after taking his team to the Finals, but, in my opinion, he wasn't a clear cut runaway with the award in the first place.  Not to say he didn't deserve it, I would have voted for him after the regular season, but why should the league's MVP award be given out before the most important and meaningful games of the season are even played?  Yes, there is the Finals MVP Award, but that discounts the performances of all of the players whose teams didn't reach the finals, a result often dictated by the relative strength of their supporting casts rather than any individual performance.

In my opinion, the MVP was a four-man race this year.  Here is how I would have voted after the regular season:

Player                             Points          Assists           Rebounds          Steals          Blocks
1.    Kobe Bryant            28.3               5.4                  6.3                        1.84            0.49      
2.    Chris Paul               21.1             11.6                 4.0                        2.71             0.05
3.    Kevin Garnett          18.8               3.4                  9.2                        1.41            1.25
4.    LeBron James       30.0                7.2                  7.9                        1.84            1.08   

Now,  after watching the playoffs, I've rearranged my thinking a bit.  I had LeBron 4th primarily because his team only won 47 games.  And Kobe beat out Chris Paul primarily because the Lakers beat out the Hornets for the top spot in the west.  And I wasn't yet a believer in the Celtics defense as the best in the league, despite 66 wins, so Garnett's efforts were downgraded a bit in my mind.

Now, it's pretty clear that both Chris Paul and LeBron James did more with less than Kobe Bryant (significantly less, in LeBron's case).  Garnett really did completely change Boston's approach, being instrumental in making them a truly excellent defensive team.  And Kobe led the way for a Laker team that handily beat the Nuggets, Jazz and Spurs on the way to the finals. 

But I suspect, had Manu Ginobli been healthy and his normal self, the Lakers might not have won that series with the Spurs.  Three of the four losses could have gone either way, despite some pretty miserable play from San Antonio, and the Spurs won the one game where Ginobli did look healthy pretty handily.  Against Boston, Kobe seemed to get worse as the series went on, as most of his teammates shrank as well, and did a disappearing act for long stretches of games 5 and 6.  Some of that was Boston's defense, but I think some of it was Kobe being too willing to launch long jumpers rather than find a way to adjust to the defense.

Chris Paul and the Hornets rolled through Dallas in the first round, and looked like they were going to do the same to San Antonio before the Spurs dug deep and fought to win the series in 7.  Their efforts against the Spurs sapped some of the juice from San Antonio's aging or ancient legs, making them further vulnerable to a much fresher Laker team that had cruised relatively untested through the first two rounds.  Paul's final assist of the playoffs was in wearing down the Spurs for the Lakers to take advantage.

I had only seen the Celtics a handful of times in the regular season, but after watching all 26 postseason games they played, it's was clearly apparent that Garnett, even though his stats weren't always fantastic, had truly reshaped what was a miserable team into a championship caliber club.  Admittedly, he clearly had the most talent around him by a pretty wide margin of any of the candidates, but talent doesn't win championships alone, the ability to merge that talent for a common goal does.  And Garnett led the way for the Celtic rejuvenation.

Unlike Kobe Bryant, LeBron James was able to adjust to the Celtics defense, going from completely baffled early in the series to completely dominant late in the series.  If it hadn't been for Paul Pierce putting up 41 in game 7 of their series with the Cavs, the Celtics wouldn't be hoisting any trophies.  And being that the Cavs beat Detroit last season, and nearly beat them the year before, it's not a stretch to suggest that LeBron could have returned to the Finals.  And with a team that plays the same kind of stifling defense that the Celtics used to beat the Lakers, who knows how that Finals matchup would have ended?  LeBron could be the one with the title surrounded by a team that would struggle to win 20 games all season without him in uniform.

So, here's how I would vote now, after watching the postseason, along with the player's post season stats:

Player                             Points          Assists          Rebounds          Steals          Blocks
1.   Kevin Garnett          20.4              3.3                 10.5                      1.35              1.12
2.   LeBron James       28.2               7.6                   7.8                      1.77              1.31
3.   Chris Paul               24.1              11.3                 4.9                       2.33              0.17
4.   Kobe Bryant            30.1               5.6                   5.7                       1.67              0.38

Any way I look at it, these four guys are all neck and neck.  I could arrange them in just about any order and it wouldn't be wrong.  So, just on gut instinct, after watching the post season, I would give it to Garnett.  It seems a little odd as he wasn't even the best player on his own team in the playoffs, but I just think his game changed the entire basis under which the Celtics play, the very essence of Most Valuable Player. 

By the way, I'm not a Kobe Hater.  I like Kobe Bryant as a player.  If anything, I think he defers his game too much.  I don't really think the Lakers roster is particularly well-suited to take full advantage of his skills.  They need big guys with heart to play physical inside, finish strong at the basket and rebound, unlike the Charmin-soft duo of Gasol and Odom.  But even liking a guy doesn't mean I'm not going to be critical if he deserves it.

I haven't written one of these in quite a while, since taking part in the sportswriter contest a couple of years back. But lately, I've been watching a lot of NBA playoff games and I got the itch to put some of my thoughts down. I'll probably do a lot of these now, because I have a lot of thoughts. Just a short one today.
I really enjoyed watching Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and the Celtics take the title, they deserve it. (Ray Allen not so much. Never was a big fan even though he is a great pure shooter). I've always liked Pierce, even back at Kansas and I remember thinking Boston got a steal with him at number 10 in the draft in 1998. Looking back now, there's no one else in that first round, before or after Pierce, who I would even consider taking over him, with the possible exception of Dirk Nowitzki if I had a team that needed his size and scoring ability, but only if I already had great player at Pierce's position already on the roster. And that's only knowing what kind of player Dirk is now. In 1998, only the UNC pair of Vince Carter and Antwan Jamison would even have been in the discussion, and there's no way I would take either of those guys over Pierce now. Wouldn't have then, either. Maybe Jamison, but probably not.
Just a side note, does anyone else think David Stern's insistence on an age limit rings particularly idiotic now considering that 4 of the 5 guys on the all NBA 1st team this year came straight out of high school (Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard and Lebron James) and the fifth guy, Chris Paul, only played two years at Wake Forest? And five of the ten guys on the 2nd and 3rd teams never played a game of college ball either. In fact, only Tim Duncan and Steve Nash (both 2nd Team) played all four years in college. Even more, the league MVP (Bryant), Defensive Player of the Year (Garnett), Sixth Man Award winner (Ginobili) and Most Improved Player (Hedo Turkoglu) never played in college either. For going to college being so important to the NBA, the list of the league's best sure are littered with guys, both American and European, who skipped it to go straight to the pro's.
If Stern were just straight up about it and told the truth, that the age limit isn't about anything other than money, I'd have a little more respect for him. It's hard to have less, actually. In reality, the typically high school to the pros player takes three or four years to truly contribute to their potential and by that point, they're a free agent. There's no other reason for the rule at all except to allow the teams that draft guys a longer period of high quality basketball before free agency rather than a year or two of preparation. But it looks to me like spending those years playing pro ball, even on an NBA bench, is actually better preparation for future performance than going to college, but, hey, in Stern's NBA, its all about the money, not about player development.
Anyway, congrats to the Celtics, condolences to the Lakers and I'll write more when I get the chance.