On The Rise

Here are five guys who’s games are about to emerge into stardom.  Each one is in a good situation on just the right team to excel.  By the end of the season, these guys will be talked about among the better players in the league.

1.  Rodney Stuckey, Detroit

Billups-lite, Stuckey emerged in the playoffs during Chauncey’s brief absence and showed the makings o####ame ready for prime time.  His rookie season was marred by injuries early, and that may have prevented what could have been a rookie-of-the-year type season and been the reason he was such a surprise in the playoffs.  He will continue to grow into what will soon be a cornerstone role for the Pistons, taking minutes away from Billups all the while.

2.  Al Thornton, L.A. Clippers

Tall, skilled and athletic, Thornton has got to be relishing the opportunity to play in an up-tempo offense directed by Baron Davis.  Young Al, one of several University of Florida players scattered around the league who look like they might have the goods to be solid pros if not more, will be a regular on nightly highlight reels finishing what Davis starts.  Plus, playing in the same frontcourt with Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby can only give Thornton more space to operate.  He’s in a great place to succeed, and I never thought I’d say that about a guy on the Clippers.

3.  Travis Outlaw, Portland

One of Portland’s many and varied young talents, Outlaw showed stretches of his potential during last season’s surprising run at respectability.  Outlaw is tall, 6’9” at least, quick enough to drive past most defenders, and has the makings of a nice shooter with three-point range.  To me, he’s a natural scorer, and his game only lacks the maturity to not press, and improve his shot selection.  He’s got the physical tools to defend at least adequately, and coach Nate McMillan will accept nothing less.  Portland has as much talent as any team in the league, and this season, that will start to translate into success.  Outlaw will be a huge part of that.

4.  Linus Kleiza, Denver

I used to love Drazen Petrovic.  His death was one of the great tragedies, in my mind, o####uy cut down just as he was reaching stardom.  Kleiza looks to be the second coming of Petrovic.  They even look somewhat alike with similar body types, and Kleiza showed flashes of a well-rounded offensive game at times last season.  His shot was good, if a little streaky, and he showed the quickness and the handle to get to the basket when possible.  He is also aggressive and fearless, not afraid to take shots.  Defensively, Denver is going to struggle even more than usual this season, making scoring that much more important.  The wide open game means that Kleiza is going to get an opportunity to show his stuff.

5.  Luis Scola, Houston

Scola came on strong as the season wore on for the Rockets.  By the end of the year, he was even garnering some support for beating out Kevin Durant for Rookie of the Year.  Scola is a high energy player, with a nice offensive game.  He’s also physical, and not afraid to defend.  On a Houston team that was lacking scoring at times, Scola will be a solid option for points, along with newly acquired Ron Artest.  He probably won’t start, as Shane Battier gives Houston a more versatile defensive lineup, but he will get lots of minutes and be a difference maker for the Rockets.  Letting Scola go will be seen as one of the few personnel mistakes made by the San Antonio Spurs in recent memory.  Scola has a solid shot at the Sixth Man award.

Others To Watch:  Rajon Rondo, Boston; Julian Wright, New Orleans; Al Horford, Atlanta; Danny Granger, Indiana; Joakim Noah, Chicago

 

On the Decline

Here are some guys who are staring on the downslope of what have been some pretty good careers.  Each of these guys, either through circumstance or loss of skills, will be transitioning into lesser roles, some of them on other teams.

1.  Ray Allen, Boston

Allen went through most of this season’s playoffs as less than useless.  He was, at times, the only defensive liability on the floor for Boston, and his shot wasn’t just off, he wasn’t even close.  For a guy who’s supposed to be such a great pure shooter, that’s a very disturbing trend.  He’s either losing a step to age or he’s just not a good fit on the team.  I think it’s a bit of both.  In any case, he will continue to backslide and will be the first of the big three to go.

2.  Peja Stojakovic, New Orleans

Peja had a nice rejuvenation last season, and he is in a nice place to keep it going as part of Chris Paul’s show featuring lots of open threes in transition.  But, as Bruce Bowen showed in the playoffs, put an actual defender in his face, and he struggles mightily.  Plus, with the addition of James Posey, more of the late-game attempts will be heading his way because of a penchant for actually making important shots, unlike Peja.  This season will mark the beginning a fade-out for Stojakovic to a lesser role, especially if he remains with the improving Hornets. 

3.  Chauncey Billups, Detroit

This one is more situational than performance.  With the emergence of Rodney Stuckey, a player with eerily similar characteristics, Billups will see his role start to diminish.  As Stuckey improves and his minutes go up, Billups’ minutes will go down.  The past couple of seasons, Chauncey ran out of gas by playoff time, and his post season performances were up and down.  The reduced minutes will probably help him keep fresh legs in May and, hopefully for Detroit, June, but because they are such similar players at the same position, the once irreplaceable Billups will now become a redundant piece heading for a new team next year, if not sooner.

4.  Manu Ginobili, San Antonio

Ginobili is a lot like Dwayne Wade in my eyes.  For him to be effective, he has to be able to play with a near-reckless abandon, throwing his body around without regard for consequences.  He’s also 31, and he has put a lot of mileage on the engine, with the long championship NBA seasons and International play for Argentina.  Still, last year was Ginobili’s best so far before injuries finally shut him down in the playoffs.  He’ll miss at least a month to start this season after ankle surgery, maybe more, and who knows how long it will be before he’s 100%.  A repeat of last season’s success is less likely than a repeat of the injuries that doomed it for the Spurs.

5.  Lamar Odom, L.A. Lakers

Odom may still put up good numbers somewhere for a few more years to come, but if his consistency and clutch play doesn’t improve quickly for the Lakers, he’ll be the first guy out the door.  Most players would prefer to be the guy who’s skills add to a team and who’s addition would put them over the top.  But Odom’s presence may be holding the Lakers back, and his subtraction could be more valuable to them.  After both the Clippers and the Heat gave up on Odom and his great potential, a Laker team on the cusp of greatness moving him out will be the deathknell to his championship hopes.  What contender is going to want a highly-paid guy who has ultimately been a disappointment everywhere he’s gone?

Others To Watch:  Antawn Jamison, Washington; Vince Carter, New Jersey; Steve Nash, Phoenix; Marcus Camby, L.A. Clippers; Zydunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland

 

On The Way Out

Here are some guys who are on their last legs as regular players.  Some will retire, some will become deep situational reserves on good teams, if they’re lucky.  It’s also not a coincidence that four of these guys have been traded recently.  But this year will be their swan song from being big contributors. 

1.  Bruce Bowen, San Antonio

Bowen is 37 and his days as a premier defender are past.  Unfortunately for him, his three point stroke seems to be leaving him as well.  He could still be a useful spot defender, but without the one thing that made his less-then-limited offensive game bearable, after this season, his time being more than an occasional reserve playing small and sometimes non-existent minutes is done.

2.  Jermaine O’Neal, Toronto

This is O’Neal’s last shot at a comeback.  If he spends more than half of this season injured, or can’t get the strength and quickness back into his game, he’ll be finished.  The Raptors will be let down in their hope that O’Neal could revive a once-promising career, and Jermaine will never again be anything more than a longshot, if he doesn’t walk away altogether.  One thing he was always lacking is the will to comeback and play o####rant Hill.

3.  Ben Wallace, Cleveland

Wallace was never the most gifted athlete, needing to work harder than everyone else to survive.  He may still have the will, and that’s debatable, but his motor is just not there any longer.  He’s become increasingly ineffective for long stretches, and that will only get worse as he continues to age.  Without more help than Cleveland currently has, he’ll have to play a lot of minutes, and that will further expose the not one, but two steps he’s lost.  Big Ben may hang around after this season, but because he’s such a massive liability with his free throw shooting, he’ll never be more than a spot bench reserve.

4.  Shaquille O’Neal, Phoenix

This will be Shaq’s last hurrah.  He may not retire, he himself has suggested he will stay through 2010, but if there is any game left in him, he’d better show it now.  Shaq has never been one for excellent fitness, and because of his size, it’s only a matter of time before leg injuries end his playing days.  It may not be one big one, but it will always be something.  That and the fact that he is a severe liability defensively and with his free throw shooting, and his offensive game has slowed to a crawl.  It will be harder and harder for any head coach to justify keeping him on the floor.  If he has any dignity, he’ll retire after this season before he embarrasses himself.

5.  Jason Kidd, Dallas

Kidd is another player who’s defensive liabilities and lack of shooting will ultimately mean severely curtailed minutes as a reserve.  He’s slowing down, can’t even disrupt the quicker guards who are populating nearly every team in the league, and is not even a threat to take a jump shot, making it tougher on the other four guys in half court sets.  He needs to run to be effective, but he’s 35 and not that fast, and up-tempo against quicker guards further exposes him as a defender.  What Sam Cassell did for the Celtics this season is about the best Kidd can hope for in the future.  Much sooner than he thinks.

Others To Watch:  Michael Finley, San Antonio; Luke Ridnour, Milwaukee; Alonzo Mourning, Miami; Brad Miller, Sacramento; T.J. Ford, Indiana

 

Next Up:  The last installment in my preseason ramblings, Fifteen Guys Who Would Be King.

 

Coming to the end of my look at all of the teams in the NBA this season, here are five of the top six or seven teams in the league.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these clubs finish first overall, and this group could end up in just about any combination, 1 through 5.  So here are the top competitors to represent the West in the NBA Finals.

5.  San Antonio Spurs

Last season, the Spurs started to show their age for the first time, getting worn down against Phoenix and then New Orleans before succumbing to the Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.  Still, they handled the Suns with relative ease and managed to climb back to beat the Hornets.  They were even a healthy Manu Ginobili away from having a nice shot at toppling L.A.  But Manu wasn’t healthy, and he’s managed to make matters worse by playing Internationally during the off season and further worsening his bum ankle.  It’s difficult to tell how much time he’ll miss to start the season, probably no less than a month, and no guarantee he’ll be back at 100 percent at any point this year.  Like Golden State with Monta Ellis, much of this season’s hopes rest on how successfully Ginobili returns.  The Spurs obviously needed to get younger this off season, but have failed miserably.  European star Tiago Splitter turned down their offer to come to the league, and draft pick James Gist also chose Europe over signing in San Antonio.  About all they did do was sign extraneous guard Roger Mason away from the Wizards.  Mason has possibilities, and he did show nice shooting range and scoring ability during his time last season in place of the Washington’s numerous injured stars, but he’s far from a sure thing.  One guy they can count on is Tony Parker, who is now coming into his prime.  I expect Parker will be among the top players in the league this season, taking up some of the slack left by Ginobili, and they do still have Tim Duncan.  The Spurs could get it all together and win again, but I think age further catches up with them, they slip a bit in the standings and a first round exit is a real possibility.

4.  Utah Jazz

After going years with only a handful of top notch point guards, it seems like we’re at the beginning of a resurgence in the league at that position, and Deron Williams is at the forefront.  After his first three years in the league, Williams is behind only Chris Paul and possibly Tony Parker in the point guard hierarchy, and you can make a case that he may be the best.  Utah is one of the youngest teams in the league, and they have already won three playoff series and reached a conference final.  They’re only going to get better.  The addition of Kyle Korver last season added the final piece to making the Jazz a genuine threat in the West with his consistently good three point shooting.  Andrei Kirilenko is a head case, but he played much better last season than the year before, and was very good in the Olympics.  With an array of young players improving almost by the day like Ronnie Brewer, Paul Millsapp and possibly high school draftee C.J. Miles, Utah is definitely on the rise.  Carlos Boozer, in my mind, is their one drawback.  He was so ineffective in the Olympics that his own college coach kept him parked deep on the bench in what few important minutes there were for Team USA.  I said earlier about Dwight Howard that FIBA basketball is not a good showcase for interior post players, and Boozer definitely suffered from that, but he was also far less than stellar during their playoff run last season.  I don’t think the Jazz will be a genuine threat for a title until they find a true heir apparent to Karl Malone in Jerry Sloan’s system, which means, I think either a trade of Boozer should he continue to struggle in key spots, or more likely, the Jazz let him walk as a free agent, allowing someone like The Heat to pay him big money for small clutch results.  I’d say the Jazz are once again one of the best in the league at home, and this year, they avoid the early season lull like last year.  They flirt with the top seed, but end up with home court in the first round and a fighter’s chance at another conference final.

3.  Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are nearly everyone’s pick to hold on to the top spot in the West and take this year’s title.  They’re not mine.  They will, without question, have one of the best half a dozen records in the entire league, and be a significant factor in the postseason, but I still believe they are a flawed team in all the wrong places to be a true champion.  Just looking at their finish last season, only two wins away from a title, makes Los Angeles appear closer to championship form than they really are.  First, losing in six games made the Finals look like they were competitive.  In reality, the Celtics were clearly far superior to the team L.A. put on the floor.  And if it weren’t for Manu Ginobili’s balky ankle, they might not have even gotten that far.  Kobe Bryant successfully defended his reputation as the best player in the league, a title I think he’ll struggle to hold on to for much longer.  As great as he is, Bryant still has a tendency to fade away at times when he’s on the floor, especially defensively, and to shut out nearly everyone else when he looks to score.  Andrew Bynum, by all reports, is healthy.  His return to the upward track he set out on last year will be essential to any hopes of a repeat in the West, a whole lot of pressure on a 20-year-old who Kobe himself wanted dumped this time last year.  How well Pau Gasol blends with an actual post-up center is another key.  Gasol would do well to take some lessons from his brother about aggressiveness and play in the paint.  If he ends up shooting too many jumpers, he’ll lose a lot of the value he brought after the trade last year, no matter how well Bynum plays.  And there is just no excuse for Lamar Odom still being on this team.  For the Lakers to step up, their defense has to get much, much better and that’s going to take more than just the return of an inexperienced 20-year-old.  Still, there is lots of talent here, and size, although in height only that doesn’t necessarily translate into physical play.  The Lakers will overwhelm a lot of teams and they’ll be at or near the top all season, but unless a trade is made, their defensive shortcomings will lead to a shorter post season run than last year.

2.  New Orleans Hornets

Chris Paul is the guy I think will be the league’s MVP this season.  In just three years, he’s brought the Hornets back from irrelevancy to a contender status that they’ve never really known, either in New Orleans, Oklahoma City or Charlotte.  He’s made David West an All Star, helped Tyson Chandler actually perform near his talent level, and brought on an unexpected rejuvenation for Peja Stojakovic.  There can be little doubt that the presence of Paul on the floor makes everyone else better.  And now they have the physical defensive capabilities of James Posey, along with his proven clutch three point shooting.  I also look for young Julian Wright to keep growing into a force, helped along by the leadership of Paul.  The bench is a little suspect, but nothing that a couple of shrewd in-season pickups won’t fix.  P.J. Brown didn’t join the Celtics until almost March last year, and look how valuable he ended up being.  Look for New Orleans to be right in the hunt all season, and be a very difficult team to get past.  A run to the Finals is a definite possibility.  To me, Chris Paul seems as if he’s one of those players like Michael Jordan or LeBron James.  They absorb experience, learn from it, and don’t repeat it often.  Lose in the semifinals one year, and you can almost guarantee a trip beyond that point the next.  I suspect Paul learned a big lesson in watching the Spurs come from behind to beat them and advance.  We’ll see what comes of that schooling this year.

1.  Houston Rockets

Not the most popular or respected pick, but after thorough consideration, I’m sticking with the Rockets as my choice to not only rise to the top of the West, but to win the title.  Basically, it came down to one thing.  The Lakers were unable to add a player like Ron Artest or even James Posey, and the Rockets and Hornets did.  If the Lakers had made the trade for Artest, and Houston didn’t exactly give up the farm to get him, they would be in this spot.  It’s not that Artest himself is such a difference maker, it’s that he brings a package of skills that tends to put good teams over the top.  Like a handful of other teams, injuries or the lack thereof, will largely rule the day.  Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming don’t necessarily need to play all 82 games for the Rockets to be successful, they just need to be reasonably healthy at the end of the season and into the playoffs.  Rafer Alston showed a growth and maturity in his game last season that I never thought would come, but he is 32 and also at risk for injury, and the lack of a quality backup would make his loss a damaging blow as evidenced by the first round series against Utah.  Artest will only add to an already solid Houston defense.  Flashy offense is what always get the headlines, but defense is still what wins championships.  And now, Houston has more scoring with Artest and a more-NBA-acclimated Luis Scola who, if he’s not starting, will be an early front-runner for Best Sixth Man.  I think they’ll start well, stay reasonably healthy, be ready come playoff time and all the talk of McGrady not being able to get out of the first round will be forgotten, just like it was for Kevin Garnett.  Houston beats Detroit in six games.

Next up:  A look at the top rookies

Continuing on with the West, here are teams 6 through 10.  All five of these teams have the elements to be pretty good.  There are two veteran teams, two young teams, and one kinda in between.  Because the West is so strong, and each one of these teams is flawed in some way, nearly every one of them could make it into the conference’s top four or miss the playoffs altogether.

10.  Golden State Warriors

The injury to Monta Ellis keeps them down a little.  He’ll miss at least the first month of the season, maybe more, and who knows how long it will be before his injury is completely healed.  Ankle injuries tend to linger in the NBA, especially on a player who relies on quickness like Ellis.  They can only hope that it’s not an injury he’s plagued with all season.  Can Marcus Williams hold down the fort or will Chris Mullin make a trade, and will it be a good one?  The answers to those questions will largely determine whether the Warriors are in or out of the playoff picture.  Lacking Ellis’ offense, more pressure will be on Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette, but I suspect they’re both up to it.  Maggette will enjoy being unleashed in Don Nelson’s system, and I’ve always thought that Jackson might be the most underrated player in the entire league.  I expect Brandon Wright to improve across the board, as well.  I think they’ll tread water waiting for Ellis to get back to full strength, but fall just a little too far off the pace, and behind too many quality teams, to catch up.

9.  Los Angeles Clippers

Much like Houston, who I’ll discuss in the next section, a lot of what eventually happens during the Clippers’ season will depend on the number of games the key players accumulate on injured reserve.  Newcomers Baron Davis and Marcus Camby have long histories of injuries, yet both guys avoided such a fate last season.  L.A.’s other team has to hope that’s the start of a positive trend for them both.  If the duo plays at least 80 games each, I believe the Clippers will make the playoffs.  The frontline of Camby, Chris Kaman and superstar-to-be Al Thornton could be one of the best in the league.  If his minutes are kept down and his knees hold up, newly signed Jason Williams could actually be an effective backup for Davis.  Eric Gordon is a guy that I have a feeling will be talked about among the best rookies in the league by the end of the year.  But they are the Clippers.  Injuries will happen, if not to Camby or Davis, then it will be Kaman or Thornton.  L.A. will get close, probably after a good start, and fade just a little too far at the end.

8.  Phoenix Suns

The next two teams are basically interchangeable.  Phoenix and Dallas are linked in my mind in more ways than just their common employee Steve Nash.  They played similar up tempo styles, then have tried to transition to a slower pace, sometimes successfully as with the Mavericks a couple years ago, not so much with the Suns thus far.  Phoenix has a lot of talent, some of it young and improving.  If Shaquille O’Neal manages to stay on the floor consistently throughout the year, an enormous if, Amare Stoudemire could have a huge year freed up from the restrictions of playing center.  Boris Diaw has all the tools to be a stat stuffer in a number of categories, playing like a point guard from the post.  And Leandro Barbosa can score in bunches.  But they’re just too dependent on guys like Shaq, Grant Hill and especially Steve Nash, who are long in the tooth, to say the least.  Nash could have some troubles adapting to the change in style, and he did struggle with it after the Shaq trade and the playoff embarrassment against San Antonio.  Or he could miss time with injuries, always a possibility with his style of play at his age.  If either possibility turns into a prolonged problem, Phoenix will be in trouble.  They can compensate for lost time from almost anyone else, but if Nash goes down, the Suns will set before the playoffs even begin this season.  I think they’ll play very well in spots, but age, and games missed due to injury, will creep up on them.  Still, I think they’ll barely hold on to a playoff spot, and get to enjoy one last postseason stint, however brief, before this team will need a bit of a makeover.

7.  Dallas Mavericks

Falling apart against Golden State in the playoffs two years ago began a downward trend for this franchise.  They won 16 fewer games last season than the year before, and went out in the first round of the playoffs for the second straight time.  When Avery Johnson took over for Don Nelson, I thought that he was the perfect coach to take this group over the top, and things looked great right up until the collapse in game three of the Finals three years ago.  The next year, they looked poised to make up for that loss, but again were beaten.  Last year turned out to be a lost season, both in terms of wins and respect for Johnson as a coach.  He has clearly been outcoached by Pat Riley, Don Nelson and Byron Scott in consecutive postseason series, exposing his weaknesses for strategy and making adjustments.  Rick Carlisle can’t help but improve those flaws.  Unfortunately, this team has much more age under their belt than the one who almost took the title in 2006.  Jason Kidd is on his last legs, Dirk Nowitzki is on the wrong side of 30, and guys like Eddie Jones and Jerry Stackhouse aren’t finding the fountain of youth any time soon.  Still, they won 51 games last season, only six fewer than the number one seeded Lakers.  They still have Jason Terry and Josh Howard (flaws and all), they might have found something in Brandon Bass and 23-year-old Gerald Green will be given an opportunity to contribute to a team with some actual talent for a change.  Carlisle will put more emphasis on physical play and getting to the basket, and the return of DeSagana Diop sits Erick Dampier back where he belongs, moderate minutes as a backup center.  Dirk can excel playing this way, as evidenced by his MVP campaign two years ago.  He has the capability to drive, finish and make a very high percentage of a lot of free throws.  If he gets into the high 20’s or closer to 30 points per game, this team may be able to make a run.  They probably are too old and emotionally fragile to expect a trip back to the Finals, but they are fully capable of making some noise and being a much more difficult out than they have been the past two years.

6.  Portland Trailblazers

This is the new “It” team in the NBA.  Nearly everyone thinks Portland is headed for serious championship contention, if not Dynasty status.  I was a bit skeptical at first, but there is just too much talent here for them to fail.  Still, they are exceptionally young and more experience is needed before they can reasonably be expected to be title contenders.  If Greg Oden is anywhere near the player people expect, this season will mark the beginning a long streak of playoff appearances for the Blazers.  Brandon Roy could be headed for eventual All-NBA status, and the guy I’m most interested in is Travis Outlaw.  With good range on an improving jumpshot, a willingness to attack the basket with a variety of moves, and exceptional athleticism for a guy 6’9”, the ceiling for Outlaw could be as high as anyone on the team, and that’s saying something.  If Rudy Fernandez brings the shooting range and fearlessness he showed off during the Olympics, watch out.  But their youth will eventually do them in.  Oden, Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless are rookies; Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge have two season under their belts, Martell Webster and Channing Frye have played three seasons and Travis Outlaw is just now earning big minutes at age 23 after being drafted right out of high school.  No team made up of predominantly young players goes from the Lottery to the title without paying their dues, and with the West being so loaded, this season will be a learning experience for Portland.  Everyone else in the Conference who has designs on a championship had better take advantage now, because by the spring of 2010, the Blazers just might be the best team in the league.

Next Up:  The West’s Elite

Now that I’ve gone through the Eastern Conference, It’s time for the superior West.  Last season, the Western Conference was unbelievably strong, likely the most competitive array of teams one through ten in the history of the league.  This year, the top clubs are somewhat improved, but it’s probably not going to end up with the same clustered playoff picture where a team could go from out of the playoffs to 1st or vice versa in a matter of a just a couple of weeks.  Here are my opinions on the bottom third:

15.  Oklahoma City Thundercats

Okay, so that’s not really the name, but outside of Oklahoma, does anyone really care what they call this less-than-mediocre group?  Personally, I like my suggestion.  Imagine, Oklahoma City inbounding the ball and, as they bring it up the court, the PA announcer gets the crowd fired up with a chant of, “Thunder...Thunder...Thunder...Thundercats, ####!”  And I think that old Thundercats logo would look great on a jersey.  If Toronto can name a team after a cheesy dinosaur movie, then why not an old cartoon?  Their nickname notwithstanding, it’s going to take sight beyond sight to envision a time when this team is actually competitive.  This is the worst team in the league, hands down.  Kevin Durant may one day be a superstar, but not before he gets some actual talent around him.  If, by some freak chance, guys like Robert Swift, Chris Wilcox and Desmond Mason start suddenly playing up to their potential, they might be able to approach 30 wins.  Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook are the only other guys on the roster with any real upside, but it’s going to be at least a couple of years before that happens, if ever.  Oklahoma City might be thrilled to have a permanent NBA team now, but just wait until they have to suffer through the lean years that will result from gutting the roster to expedite the move.  Be careful what you wish for.

14.  Sacramento Kings

How the once almost-mighty have fallen.  I wanted to like Sacramento, I really did, mostly because Kevin Martin reminds me a little of Reggie Miller, but the trade of Ron Artest gave up a solid, all-star type scorer and defender for nothing more than a retread of a shooting guard in Bobby Jackson who was close to washed up before he left the Kings last time.  There is some talent here, but not nearly enough to compete in the West, and for every genuine player like underrated point guard Beno Udrih, there are two or three other guys like Jackson, Shelden Williams and Mikki Moore who would be overstating their value if I called them one-dimensional.  Has there ever been a guy with as much talent who has put up pretty decent numbers throughout his career and been as totally irrelevant as Shareef Abdur Rahim?  Brad Miller has got to be close to collecting Social Security by now, and I can barely recall why I was so high on Quincy Douby when he was drafted.  There’s just too much depth in the West for Sacramento to make any real noise.  Sadly, it seems like an eternity ago that the foursome of Webber, Divac, Stojakovic and Bibby put the Kings on the NBA map.  It may be a while before they find their way back.

13.  Memphis Grizzlies

I am actually somewhat optimistic about the Grizzlies, mainly because I suspect that O.J. Mayo is for real.  Forget Greg Oden, Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley, here is your Rookie Of The Year.  And I was surprisingly impressed by Marc Gasol during the Oylmpics.  If he comes to the NBA as a big, strong, space-eater not afraid to push people around with a couple of pretty decent back-to-the basket moves, the guard-heavy Grizzlies will cease being a pushover.  They might not win a lot of games this season, but they will be that dangerous team that can beat you if you’re not focused.  Probably a lousy road record but a respectable mark at home.  Rudy #### can score, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he and Mayo combine for close to 50 points a night.  But mostly, Memphis is all about questions.  Can Darko Milicic show some of the talent he came into the league with playing next to a genuine big guy like Gasol?  Will one or more of the guard trio of Kyle Lowry, Javaris Crittendon and Mike Conley show something this season?  Could Darrell Arthur possibly be the sleeper of the draft?  Young doesn’t begin to describe this team; the seven guys I just mentioned have a combined 10 years in the league, and three of those were Darko being stuck very deep on Detroit’s bench.  No chance whatsoever of them getting near the playoffs this season, but they are moving in the right direction.

12.  Minnesota Timberwolves

If you’re looking for a sleeper team that comes out of nowhere and has a nice little, completely unexpected stretch, this one is it.  It’s a shame they’re in the West.  If the Timberwolves played in the East, I would have seriously considered having them in the playoffs.  Kevin Garnett is unquestionably a great, all-time kind of player, but the suggestion that Minnesota got ripped off in that trade is flat wrong.  Al Jefferson is going to be a 20-10 guy long after Garnett has retired.  On draft day, I thought O.J. Mayo was going to make a fantastic outside to Jefferson’s inside for Minnesota for the next 10 years, but he was quickly traded.  If Kevin Love is even close to the kind of player some think he will be, landing him and Mike Miller from Memphis will save the Timberwolves from a black mark like Seattle earned when they drafted Scottie Pippen and then traded him for Olden Polynice.  Polynice turned out to be a halfway decent center who played for bunches of teams, but Pippen’s going to the Hall Of Fame with six rings.  A front court pairing of Jefferson and Love, along with Miller (the elder statesman of this team’s key players at the ripe old age of 28) and any of a number of young talent like Ryan Gomes, Craig Smith, Corey Brewer, Rodney Carney, Randy Foye, Rashad McCants and, yes, even Sebastian Telfair gives this team depth and flexibility.  But they are in the West where the learning curve is very steep, indeed.  There is no margin for error for the Timberwolves to get it all together, and being so young, so much can, and probably will, go wrong.  But don’t be surprised if they actually flirt with a playoff spot during the first half of the season.

11.  Denver Nuggets

This is what really separates the West from the East.  A team that would probably make the playoffs easily in the East isn’t even going to be in top 10 in the West.  Trading Marcus Camby definitely hurts, but it’s not like Denver hasn’t had to go long stretches without him on the floor in the past.  And I’ve always thought his defense was very overrated, anyway.  Sure, he blocks a lot of shots, and alters even more, but his straight-up defensive prowess isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.  He is to blocking shots what Allen Iverson is to steals.  No one would call A.I. a great defender, but he’s always near the league leaders in steals.  It’s easy to put up great defensive stats when that’s the only thing you’re trying for.  It’s Camby’s rebounding I think they’ll miss most.  If they manage to beat the odds and keep Nene and Kenyon Martin from going down, adding to their own long and storied injury histories, they will still have at least a presence in the paint and, who knows, maybe Renaldo Balkman actually has some defensive chops.  The guy I’m intrigued with is Linus Kleiza.  Watching the Nuggets late in the season and during their short-lived playoff stint, Kleiza’s play was giving me flashbacks of Drazen Petrovic, the former New Jersey Nets star who was tragically killed just as he beginning to emerge as a star.  With Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith and Kleiza, Denver will score tons of points.  Defense is their Achilles heel, however.  So what else is new?  The best they can hope for is that a couple of the other playoff-caliber clubs slip a bit, and they can slide into that eighth seed for another four or five game post season stint.

Next Up:  The Mid Majors

Okay, no more criticizing the Lakers.  Geez, you'd think I insulted people's mothers or something.  The Lakers are a lock to win 70 games this season, and they'll go undefeated through the playoffs.  Kobe Bryant is the best player in the history of sports, Andrew Bynum will be the best center in the league this year, Pau Gasol will learn to play tough and Lamar Odom will finally bring the intensity every night.  I'm a convert.  Go Lakers!

No, really, I stand by everything I've said prior to that last paragraph.  The actual games may not bear me out, but I usually have good instincts about these things.  And I am already really excited to see how this season will play out.  Especially to watch Andrew Bynum.  I haven't seen him play all that much, compared to most other guys who will be under the kind of pressure he will be this year, and I really want to see whether or not he's the difference maker a lot of people seem to think he is.  Plus, I want to watch Portland and Golden State.  The Blazers are nearly everyone's pick to rise up into the West's pecking order, and I'd like to see Greg Oden actually on the floor for a change.  I'm still undecided about how much better they will be (or if they will be better at all).  The Warriors have a completely different look and I'm very curious to see what that means on the court.  They have talent all over the place, but are young and generally defenseless.  They are one of the teams I'm most interested in seeing in games that count.

I was watching some of the playoff games from last year, most notably the Houston-Utah series, the other day,  just to refresh myself with the Rockets to make certain I hadn't gone off the deep end as some have suggested.  One thing I realized is that I have probably underestimated the Jazz.  I am admittedly not the biggest Carlos Boozer fan, and AK 47 is a tad flighty to put it mildly, but I had forgotten about guys like Corey Brewer and Paul Milsap.  I've seen Kyle Korver play a lot when he was with the 76ers, and his role as designated 3-point shooter in Utah is a perfect fit for him, especially since he has few other skills.   But Deron Williams is why I've changed my tune.  He really is exceptional.  I still think Boozer is probably the Achilles heel for the team that will bring them down in the postseason, but they are clearly better than I had previously stated, and if they can improve upon their 19-29 road record of last year (including the playoffs) they can make the West a five horse race.

Wow, is Josh Howard an ####.  I still have a little optimism (very little, and fading by the day) about the Mavericks, I don't think they are done as many have said, but real championship contention is most likely out of the question.  If Howard's random acts of stupidity force Dallas to trade him, they will get nowhere near value in return at this point.  If they dump him just to clear him out, the Mavs will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs.  Drag Racing!  What a ####.

Does anybody really like International basketball?  I've been watching some of the Team USA warm up games and I just can't get into it.  The flow of the game is off somehow.  Admittedly, the games are warm ups, maybe the actual competition will be better, but I've never really enjoyed International games all that much in the past.  I think the team might actually be too deep.  No one gets the number of minutes they probably should and that's got to affect the rhythm within their own games.   I do like the physical play on the guards, though.  I think the NBA went too far in stopping contact on the perimeter.  It seems a little hypocritical that someone in the paint can get hammered and the chances of getting a foul called are about 50/50, but if you look cross-eyed at a guard out over the three point line, it's almost always a foul.

It's just not that exciting to me.  Of course, watching an All-Star team blow people out by 50 points doesn't make for enthralling television.  Even that "hard-fought defensive struggle" against Russia that they won by 20 points wasn't particularly interesting.  I never got the feeling that Russia could actually win that game.  There are probably only two or three teams that can beat the U.S., and I expect that will only happen if they get complacent in blowing people out.  I just hope the Olympics end without anyone suffering a major injury.  Can you imagine the backlash if Kobe or LeBron or Chris Paul blows out a knee somewhere along the way?  And for what?  Representing your country?  Come on, the guys in body armor, risking their lives in Iraq are representing their country.  These guys are playing in a basketball tournament on the cheap for an organization that reaps billions from "amateur" athletics and makes the NCAA look like a humanitarian group.  I can understand why NBA owners don't like their players competing in this.  Do you think the IOC or USA Basketball is going to reimburse an NBA team for their loss if someone gets hurt?  Wouldn't hold my breath. 

Ok, it seems like the transaction wire in the NBA is starting to heat up with another couple of big moves today. The Clippers swiped Marcus Camby from Denver for a bag of magic beans, and The Hornets swiped James Posey from underneath the Celtics for a bag of greenbacks. Here's some first impressions.

I have to reserve judgment on the Nuggets until I see who the player is that the $10 million trade exception they received from the Clippers nets them. As long as they get a solid contributor who can play defense with that exception, this smells to me like one of those deals where a team sells on a player at just the right moment. Camby is 34, a 12-year vet with a long and storied history of injuries, but not so much in the past 5 years. If he manages to stay healthy and on the court, the Clips can get close to their money's worth for at least one season, but that's a big if in my mind, especially with the Clippers. Is there another franchise in all of sports who's been hit by catastrophic injuries to its best players more frequently than L.A.'s junior team? The same concern exists for Baron Davis. I expect Camby will begin the decline phase of his career, even if healthy. This is a gasp move by L.A. desperately trying to make up for the loss of Elton Brand. Still, if everyone is healthy, they could be competitive but that's a long way from the post season in the crazy-deep west.

The Hornets just jumped to the top of my list of Western Conference teams with the addition of Posey, at least until the Lakers manage to haggle a deal for Ron Artest. If New Orleans was a little more seasoned last year, they would have finished off San Antonio and put on an epic Western Conference Final with the Lakers. This is a big blow to Boston, however. There is no way, zip, zero, no chance Boston wins that title without Posey. How do they replace him now? The short answer is, they don't. Boston definitely comes back to the pack some in the East. Joe Dumars must be thrilled by this defection.

A couple of minor moves made last week that I really liked caught my attention as well. Orlando signing Mickael Pietrus away from the Warriors and San Antonio signing Roger Mason from the Wizards. The Spurs desperately need fresh legs on the bench and Mason can score in bunches, plus, if Gilbert Arenas comes back healthy, his playing time in Washington was going to be very minimal. One or two more guys like this and San Antonio's back in the hunt for the top spot in the West. I really like what Orlando's done so far this offseason. Pietrus can shoot and defend and will fit in perfectly. They also drafted Courtney Lee and just signed a nice backup point guard in Anthony Johnson, potentially a big upgrade on Keyon Dooling. The Magic are going to contend seriously this year, I'm thinking Eastern Finals at least, especially with Boston's sudden issue and who knows what Detroit will do in the next couple months? It's possible that both Rasheed Wallace and Chauncey Billups will be playing elsewhere by opening day, so the Pistons might take a step back as well. With only Philadelphia (and possibly Toronto, but I have see a Jermaine O'Neal rejuvenation before believe it) making a significant upgrade among last season's playoff teams in the East so far, Orlando may just be able to snake home court in the East.

As of right now, very early though it may be, here's what I see as next year's post-season 16. Many moves to come, however, so this will probably change dramatically. By the way, I'm completely ignoring divisions, these are just the top 8 teams in each conference in my mind at the moment.

East
1. Boston (Even without Posey, but very close to Detroit and Orlando in my mind right now)
2. Detroit (Have to temper this because I think there is at least one major trade coming)
3. Orlando (I expect they'll be higher before the season starts, barring a great trade by Detroit)
4. Washington (If Arenas is healthy, Butler is a star, Jamison can score and an improved inside game with the growth of Andray Blatche. They had a winning record last year missing Arenas for almost the entire year and Butler for 24 games)
5. Cleveland (Any team that plays defense like they can and has LeBron James is going to be in the hunt come playoff time. They move up if they manage to move Wally Szczerbiak for an actual useful shooting guard)
6. Philadelphia (Got to keep Igoudala. Lose him as a restricted free agent and their playing for the eighth spot at best. Keep him and if Brand is totally healthy and on his game, they move up, maybe way up)
7. Toronto (Jose Calderon as a full time starter is going to be near the league lead in assists and Chris Bosh is an all star. Jermaine O'Neal is the difference between moving up or mediocrity. That worked out so well for Indiana in the past)
8. Milwaukee (The top 7 are pretty certain to be in, in my mind. This spot is anyone's to grab. Taking a flyer on the Bucks right now, primarily because there are so many questions and trades yet to be made with almost everyone else right now)

West
1. New Orleans (Another year under Chris Paul's belt and Robert Horry wannabe James Posey on the floor, almost won last year, can definitely take it this year)
2. Houston (Okay, first let me say this one has an enormous if attached to it. IF everyone is healthy come playoff time, this might be the best team in the entire league, definitely the most unappreciated. But that's a gigantic, 2-ton if)
3. L.A. Lakers (For now, but its close with San Antonio, who I still think would have beaten them if Manu Ginobli had been healthy. There will be a change coming up that could bump them up to the top)
4. San Antonio (The biggest concern I have with the Spurs is how much the new flopping rule will affect them. My guess is that the flopping rule will be just like a flop on the court, all flash and little impact. If they add some more young legs, they could be up to the top)
5. Dallas (Probably a trade coming, but I would keep Josh Howard, personally. Really, all he said was that he smoked weed in the offseason, not barbecuing small children or something. Anybody think Mark Cuban doesn't?)
6. Utah (Not really the biggest Carlos Boozer fan, probably more likely to drop them then raise them at this point. Don't be completely surprised if they miss the playoffs, the west is really deep, and remember they were pretty average in the first third of last season)
7. Phoenix (Here's another team that could miss out entirely. Nash and Shaq get their AARP newsletters delivered to U.S. Airways Arena. The more I think about the trade for Shaq, the more I can't believe someone actually got paid to be that stupid. Stoudamire is good, but Nash makes him great)
8. Portland (For now. Lots of talent, could go up or out altogether. Remember, it takes two years from microfracture surgery to get all the way back, if ever. We're not going to see 100% Greg Oden this year, even if he stays on the floor. The other competitors are hit or miss, maybe Denver with another trade, maybe the Clippers if Eric Gordon is ROY and they miss the injury bug, maybe the Warriors if Monta Ellis can handle the point and they find a new leader to replace Davis because Corey Maggette may score but he's not a leader, and don't sleep on Sacramento--they could sneak up on everyone depending on the return for Ron Artest)

Can someone explain to me why the NBA doesn't change the rules about the free agency and trade moratoriums or at least wait and hold the draft once the moratorium is up and the next year's salary cap is set?  Never did understand that.  And it could lead to more big trades on draft day, making an otherwise somewhat dull affair more exciting.   Anyway, I thought I'd look at a couple trades that I guess are official, if not formally so.  I'm sticking to trades that involved actual proven players, not just draft pick swaps, although a couple of these included draft picks.

Toronto-Indiana
The Raptors sent T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and the 17th pick of the draft (Roy Hibbert) to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal.  I guess this trade's official, although the last I heard, it couldn't be formally completed until July 1 because of some contract issue with Ford, and there was the small matter of physicals.  Indiana got rid of one highly paid major injury risk for another less-highly paid major injury risk.  They also receive a BIG center, albeit a slow, lumbering one in Roy Hibbert and another 7-footer in Nesterovic who played all of 15 minutes per game for Toronto in the playoffs.  The Pacers are remaking their roster, looking for better, more consistent guard play and more strength inside.   To me, Ford doesn't exactly scream "consistent" and, for a quick, slashing point guard, he is probably one bad fall away from it being his last.  But at least he's not Jamaal Tinsley.

Toronto gets Jermaine O'Neal, a guy who was the league's most improved player back in 2002 and a three time All-NBA player (twice on the third team and once on the second team).  Since then, he's become first team all injured reserve.  During his years in Indiana, The Pacers lost in the first round in three of their five playoff seasons, the second round once, reaching only one conference finals and O'Neal didn't exactly develop a reputation as a prime time player in big games.  Still, if he's healthy and motivated (both enormous if's) he could form a frightening combo with Chris Bosh.

Basically, it's a risk-reward move for Toronto.  If it pays off, they've made a big step up in a weak conference.  If it doesn't, all they gave up was an unwanted draft pick, a backup center and a point guard they pretty clearly no longer wanted or needed.  Indiana really should have traded O'Neal two or three years ago when they might have gotten something a little more useful in return.  Toronto wins this one, whatever happens.

Indiana-Portland
In this one, Portland sent the 13th pick in the draft Brandon Rush and Jarrett Jack to Indiana for Ike Diogu and the 11th pick in the draft Jerryd Bayless.

Indiana did a little better this time, but now they've got two point guards.  I'd bet they'll play much like Toronto did with Ford and Calderon, rotating quarters.  Brandon Rush has a shot to be pretty good though. 

Portland gets a little help inside with Diogu, if he gets off the bench, something that didn't happen very often in Indiana and something that's not guaranteed with Portland's depth of talent, and the guy they wanted in Bayless.  Not really sold on Bayless as point guard, but with Brandon Roy, he won't need to be and he can score.

A trade of middling reserves and draft picks with potential who may or may not pan out.  I'll call it even until I see what kind of players Rush and Bayless turn out to be.  Both guys could be hit or miss in my mind.

Milwaukee-New Jersey
Milwaukee sent Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons to New Jersey for Richard Jefferson.  Wow, a trade with no draft picks.   Straight up NBA players for NBA players.

New Jersey continued dumping salary in an effort to be in position to nab LeBron in a couple years.  It seems like a foregone conclusion that LeBron is out of Cleveland, and most of the speculation about his NBA future is the Knicks and Nets, with both clubs taking steps to make that a reality.  To me, it's a pretty dangerous move.  I seem to recall the Chicago Bulls and some other teams a few years ago doing the same sort of preparation to sign a big-time upcoming free agent playing for a small market club who was thought to  be available, Tim Duncan.  Needless to say, it didn't happen.  Duncan re-upped and those clubs counting on him were left out in the cold.  In this day and age, NBA superstars never leave their teams as free agents.  Trades maybe on occasion, but never as free agents.  Don't count on this happening, either.  But that doesn't mean that Vince Carter shouldn't be packing his bags, as well.

Yi has potential and wasn't really happy in Milwaukee anyway.  A move to the Nets (soon to be Brooklyn) gives him the bright lights he wanted.  Can he perform?  Bobby Simmons was the most improved player a few years back with the Clippers before signing a big free agent deal that has never panned out.

As for the Bucks, with Jefferson, they've got some talent on their roster.  Barring further moves (like a trade of Michael Redd) I wouldn't be surprised to see them in then playoffs in the east next season.  Not really a contender, though.

Unless Yi lives up to the initial hype, or they actually do land LeBron later on, the Bucks win this one.

I was going to say something poignant about the trade between Minnesota and Memphis that sent Mike Miller to the Timberwolves with draftee Kevin Love and salary throw ins for draftee O.J. Mayo and salary throw ins.  All I can say is Memphis had better hope Mayo is a superstar in the making because they gave up a solid NBA player in Miller and top 5 draft pick for him.  Of course, there may be a reason why the Grizzlies have never won a playoff game, let alone a series.  I'm sure Pau Gasol would agree.  But hey, Marc Gasol's coming next year and he's gonna make that Laker trade look like it wasn't just flat-out theft.  Right?