On The Rise

Here are five guys who’s games are about to emerge into stardom.  Each one is in a good situation on just the right team to excel.  By the end of the season, these guys will be talked about among the better players in the league.

1.  Rodney Stuckey, Detroit

Billups-lite, Stuckey emerged in the playoffs during Chauncey’s brief absence and showed the makings o####ame ready for prime time.  His rookie season was marred by injuries early, and that may have prevented what could have been a rookie-of-the-year type season and been the reason he was such a surprise in the playoffs.  He will continue to grow into what will soon be a cornerstone role for the Pistons, taking minutes away from Billups all the while.

2.  Al Thornton, L.A. Clippers

Tall, skilled and athletic, Thornton has got to be relishing the opportunity to play in an up-tempo offense directed by Baron Davis.  Young Al, one of several University of Florida players scattered around the league who look like they might have the goods to be solid pros if not more, will be a regular on nightly highlight reels finishing what Davis starts.  Plus, playing in the same frontcourt with Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby can only give Thornton more space to operate.  He’s in a great place to succeed, and I never thought I’d say that about a guy on the Clippers.

3.  Travis Outlaw, Portland

One of Portland’s many and varied young talents, Outlaw showed stretches of his potential during last season’s surprising run at respectability.  Outlaw is tall, 6’9” at least, quick enough to drive past most defenders, and has the makings of a nice shooter with three-point range.  To me, he’s a natural scorer, and his game only lacks the maturity to not press, and improve his shot selection.  He’s got the physical tools to defend at least adequately, and coach Nate McMillan will accept nothing less.  Portland has as much talent as any team in the league, and this season, that will start to translate into success.  Outlaw will be a huge part of that.

4.  Linus Kleiza, Denver

I used to love Drazen Petrovic.  His death was one of the great tragedies, in my mind, o####uy cut down just as he was reaching stardom.  Kleiza looks to be the second coming of Petrovic.  They even look somewhat alike with similar body types, and Kleiza showed flashes of a well-rounded offensive game at times last season.  His shot was good, if a little streaky, and he showed the quickness and the handle to get to the basket when possible.  He is also aggressive and fearless, not afraid to take shots.  Defensively, Denver is going to struggle even more than usual this season, making scoring that much more important.  The wide open game means that Kleiza is going to get an opportunity to show his stuff.

5.  Luis Scola, Houston

Scola came on strong as the season wore on for the Rockets.  By the end of the year, he was even garnering some support for beating out Kevin Durant for Rookie of the Year.  Scola is a high energy player, with a nice offensive game.  He’s also physical, and not afraid to defend.  On a Houston team that was lacking scoring at times, Scola will be a solid option for points, along with newly acquired Ron Artest.  He probably won’t start, as Shane Battier gives Houston a more versatile defensive lineup, but he will get lots of minutes and be a difference maker for the Rockets.  Letting Scola go will be seen as one of the few personnel mistakes made by the San Antonio Spurs in recent memory.  Scola has a solid shot at the Sixth Man award.

Others To Watch:  Rajon Rondo, Boston; Julian Wright, New Orleans; Al Horford, Atlanta; Danny Granger, Indiana; Joakim Noah, Chicago

 

On the Decline

Here are some guys who are staring on the downslope of what have been some pretty good careers.  Each of these guys, either through circumstance or loss of skills, will be transitioning into lesser roles, some of them on other teams.

1.  Ray Allen, Boston

Allen went through most of this season’s playoffs as less than useless.  He was, at times, the only defensive liability on the floor for Boston, and his shot wasn’t just off, he wasn’t even close.  For a guy who’s supposed to be such a great pure shooter, that’s a very disturbing trend.  He’s either losing a step to age or he’s just not a good fit on the team.  I think it’s a bit of both.  In any case, he will continue to backslide and will be the first of the big three to go.

2.  Peja Stojakovic, New Orleans

Peja had a nice rejuvenation last season, and he is in a nice place to keep it going as part of Chris Paul’s show featuring lots of open threes in transition.  But, as Bruce Bowen showed in the playoffs, put an actual defender in his face, and he struggles mightily.  Plus, with the addition of James Posey, more of the late-game attempts will be heading his way because of a penchant for actually making important shots, unlike Peja.  This season will mark the beginning a fade-out for Stojakovic to a lesser role, especially if he remains with the improving Hornets. 

3.  Chauncey Billups, Detroit

This one is more situational than performance.  With the emergence of Rodney Stuckey, a player with eerily similar characteristics, Billups will see his role start to diminish.  As Stuckey improves and his minutes go up, Billups’ minutes will go down.  The past couple of seasons, Chauncey ran out of gas by playoff time, and his post season performances were up and down.  The reduced minutes will probably help him keep fresh legs in May and, hopefully for Detroit, June, but because they are such similar players at the same position, the once irreplaceable Billups will now become a redundant piece heading for a new team next year, if not sooner.

4.  Manu Ginobili, San Antonio

Ginobili is a lot like Dwayne Wade in my eyes.  For him to be effective, he has to be able to play with a near-reckless abandon, throwing his body around without regard for consequences.  He’s also 31, and he has put a lot of mileage on the engine, with the long championship NBA seasons and International play for Argentina.  Still, last year was Ginobili’s best so far before injuries finally shut him down in the playoffs.  He’ll miss at least a month to start this season after ankle surgery, maybe more, and who knows how long it will be before he’s 100%.  A repeat of last season’s success is less likely than a repeat of the injuries that doomed it for the Spurs.

5.  Lamar Odom, L.A. Lakers

Odom may still put up good numbers somewhere for a few more years to come, but if his consistency and clutch play doesn’t improve quickly for the Lakers, he’ll be the first guy out the door.  Most players would prefer to be the guy who’s skills add to a team and who’s addition would put them over the top.  But Odom’s presence may be holding the Lakers back, and his subtraction could be more valuable to them.  After both the Clippers and the Heat gave up on Odom and his great potential, a Laker team on the cusp of greatness moving him out will be the deathknell to his championship hopes.  What contender is going to want a highly-paid guy who has ultimately been a disappointment everywhere he’s gone?

Others To Watch:  Antawn Jamison, Washington; Vince Carter, New Jersey; Steve Nash, Phoenix; Marcus Camby, L.A. Clippers; Zydunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland

 

On The Way Out

Here are some guys who are on their last legs as regular players.  Some will retire, some will become deep situational reserves on good teams, if they’re lucky.  It’s also not a coincidence that four of these guys have been traded recently.  But this year will be their swan song from being big contributors. 

1.  Bruce Bowen, San Antonio

Bowen is 37 and his days as a premier defender are past.  Unfortunately for him, his three point stroke seems to be leaving him as well.  He could still be a useful spot defender, but without the one thing that made his less-then-limited offensive game bearable, after this season, his time being more than an occasional reserve playing small and sometimes non-existent minutes is done.

2.  Jermaine O’Neal, Toronto

This is O’Neal’s last shot at a comeback.  If he spends more than half of this season injured, or can’t get the strength and quickness back into his game, he’ll be finished.  The Raptors will be let down in their hope that O’Neal could revive a once-promising career, and Jermaine will never again be anything more than a longshot, if he doesn’t walk away altogether.  One thing he was always lacking is the will to comeback and play o####rant Hill.

3.  Ben Wallace, Cleveland

Wallace was never the most gifted athlete, needing to work harder than everyone else to survive.  He may still have the will, and that’s debatable, but his motor is just not there any longer.  He’s become increasingly ineffective for long stretches, and that will only get worse as he continues to age.  Without more help than Cleveland currently has, he’ll have to play a lot of minutes, and that will further expose the not one, but two steps he’s lost.  Big Ben may hang around after this season, but because he’s such a massive liability with his free throw shooting, he’ll never be more than a spot bench reserve.

4.  Shaquille O’Neal, Phoenix

This will be Shaq’s last hurrah.  He may not retire, he himself has suggested he will stay through 2010, but if there is any game left in him, he’d better show it now.  Shaq has never been one for excellent fitness, and because of his size, it’s only a matter of time before leg injuries end his playing days.  It may not be one big one, but it will always be something.  That and the fact that he is a severe liability defensively and with his free throw shooting, and his offensive game has slowed to a crawl.  It will be harder and harder for any head coach to justify keeping him on the floor.  If he has any dignity, he’ll retire after this season before he embarrasses himself.

5.  Jason Kidd, Dallas

Kidd is another player who’s defensive liabilities and lack of shooting will ultimately mean severely curtailed minutes as a reserve.  He’s slowing down, can’t even disrupt the quicker guards who are populating nearly every team in the league, and is not even a threat to take a jump shot, making it tougher on the other four guys in half court sets.  He needs to run to be effective, but he’s 35 and not that fast, and up-tempo against quicker guards further exposes him as a defender.  What Sam Cassell did for the Celtics this season is about the best Kidd can hope for in the future.  Much sooner than he thinks.

Others To Watch:  Michael Finley, San Antonio; Luke Ridnour, Milwaukee; Alonzo Mourning, Miami; Brad Miller, Sacramento; T.J. Ford, Indiana

 

Next Up:  The last installment in my preseason ramblings, Fifteen Guys Who Would Be King.

 

Coming to the end of my look at all of the teams in the NBA this season, here are five of the top six or seven teams in the league.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these clubs finish first overall, and this group could end up in just about any combination, 1 through 5.  So here are the top competitors to represent the West in the NBA Finals.

5.  San Antonio Spurs

Last season, the Spurs started to show their age for the first time, getting worn down against Phoenix and then New Orleans before succumbing to the Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.  Still, they handled the Suns with relative ease and managed to climb back to beat the Hornets.  They were even a healthy Manu Ginobili away from having a nice shot at toppling L.A.  But Manu wasn’t healthy, and he’s managed to make matters worse by playing Internationally during the off season and further worsening his bum ankle.  It’s difficult to tell how much time he’ll miss to start the season, probably no less than a month, and no guarantee he’ll be back at 100 percent at any point this year.  Like Golden State with Monta Ellis, much of this season’s hopes rest on how successfully Ginobili returns.  The Spurs obviously needed to get younger this off season, but have failed miserably.  European star Tiago Splitter turned down their offer to come to the league, and draft pick James Gist also chose Europe over signing in San Antonio.  About all they did do was sign extraneous guard Roger Mason away from the Wizards.  Mason has possibilities, and he did show nice shooting range and scoring ability during his time last season in place of the Washington’s numerous injured stars, but he’s far from a sure thing.  One guy they can count on is Tony Parker, who is now coming into his prime.  I expect Parker will be among the top players in the league this season, taking up some of the slack left by Ginobili, and they do still have Tim Duncan.  The Spurs could get it all together and win again, but I think age further catches up with them, they slip a bit in the standings and a first round exit is a real possibility.

4.  Utah Jazz

After going years with only a handful of top notch point guards, it seems like we’re at the beginning of a resurgence in the league at that position, and Deron Williams is at the forefront.  After his first three years in the league, Williams is behind only Chris Paul and possibly Tony Parker in the point guard hierarchy, and you can make a case that he may be the best.  Utah is one of the youngest teams in the league, and they have already won three playoff series and reached a conference final.  They’re only going to get better.  The addition of Kyle Korver last season added the final piece to making the Jazz a genuine threat in the West with his consistently good three point shooting.  Andrei Kirilenko is a head case, but he played much better last season than the year before, and was very good in the Olympics.  With an array of young players improving almost by the day like Ronnie Brewer, Paul Millsapp and possibly high school draftee C.J. Miles, Utah is definitely on the rise.  Carlos Boozer, in my mind, is their one drawback.  He was so ineffective in the Olympics that his own college coach kept him parked deep on the bench in what few important minutes there were for Team USA.  I said earlier about Dwight Howard that FIBA basketball is not a good showcase for interior post players, and Boozer definitely suffered from that, but he was also far less than stellar during their playoff run last season.  I don’t think the Jazz will be a genuine threat for a title until they find a true heir apparent to Karl Malone in Jerry Sloan’s system, which means, I think either a trade of Boozer should he continue to struggle in key spots, or more likely, the Jazz let him walk as a free agent, allowing someone like The Heat to pay him big money for small clutch results.  I’d say the Jazz are once again one of the best in the league at home, and this year, they avoid the early season lull like last year.  They flirt with the top seed, but end up with home court in the first round and a fighter’s chance at another conference final.

3.  Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are nearly everyone’s pick to hold on to the top spot in the West and take this year’s title.  They’re not mine.  They will, without question, have one of the best half a dozen records in the entire league, and be a significant factor in the postseason, but I still believe they are a flawed team in all the wrong places to be a true champion.  Just looking at their finish last season, only two wins away from a title, makes Los Angeles appear closer to championship form than they really are.  First, losing in six games made the Finals look like they were competitive.  In reality, the Celtics were clearly far superior to the team L.A. put on the floor.  And if it weren’t for Manu Ginobili’s balky ankle, they might not have even gotten that far.  Kobe Bryant successfully defended his reputation as the best player in the league, a title I think he’ll struggle to hold on to for much longer.  As great as he is, Bryant still has a tendency to fade away at times when he’s on the floor, especially defensively, and to shut out nearly everyone else when he looks to score.  Andrew Bynum, by all reports, is healthy.  His return to the upward track he set out on last year will be essential to any hopes of a repeat in the West, a whole lot of pressure on a 20-year-old who Kobe himself wanted dumped this time last year.  How well Pau Gasol blends with an actual post-up center is another key.  Gasol would do well to take some lessons from his brother about aggressiveness and play in the paint.  If he ends up shooting too many jumpers, he’ll lose a lot of the value he brought after the trade last year, no matter how well Bynum plays.  And there is just no excuse for Lamar Odom still being on this team.  For the Lakers to step up, their defense has to get much, much better and that’s going to take more than just the return of an inexperienced 20-year-old.  Still, there is lots of talent here, and size, although in height only that doesn’t necessarily translate into physical play.  The Lakers will overwhelm a lot of teams and they’ll be at or near the top all season, but unless a trade is made, their defensive shortcomings will lead to a shorter post season run than last year.

2.  New Orleans Hornets

Chris Paul is the guy I think will be the league’s MVP this season.  In just three years, he’s brought the Hornets back from irrelevancy to a contender status that they’ve never really known, either in New Orleans, Oklahoma City or Charlotte.  He’s made David West an All Star, helped Tyson Chandler actually perform near his talent level, and brought on an unexpected rejuvenation for Peja Stojakovic.  There can be little doubt that the presence of Paul on the floor makes everyone else better.  And now they have the physical defensive capabilities of James Posey, along with his proven clutch three point shooting.  I also look for young Julian Wright to keep growing into a force, helped along by the leadership of Paul.  The bench is a little suspect, but nothing that a couple of shrewd in-season pickups won’t fix.  P.J. Brown didn’t join the Celtics until almost March last year, and look how valuable he ended up being.  Look for New Orleans to be right in the hunt all season, and be a very difficult team to get past.  A run to the Finals is a definite possibility.  To me, Chris Paul seems as if he’s one of those players like Michael Jordan or LeBron James.  They absorb experience, learn from it, and don’t repeat it often.  Lose in the semifinals one year, and you can almost guarantee a trip beyond that point the next.  I suspect Paul learned a big lesson in watching the Spurs come from behind to beat them and advance.  We’ll see what comes of that schooling this year.

1.  Houston Rockets

Not the most popular or respected pick, but after thorough consideration, I’m sticking with the Rockets as my choice to not only rise to the top of the West, but to win the title.  Basically, it came down to one thing.  The Lakers were unable to add a player like Ron Artest or even James Posey, and the Rockets and Hornets did.  If the Lakers had made the trade for Artest, and Houston didn’t exactly give up the farm to get him, they would be in this spot.  It’s not that Artest himself is such a difference maker, it’s that he brings a package of skills that tends to put good teams over the top.  Like a handful of other teams, injuries or the lack thereof, will largely rule the day.  Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming don’t necessarily need to play all 82 games for the Rockets to be successful, they just need to be reasonably healthy at the end of the season and into the playoffs.  Rafer Alston showed a growth and maturity in his game last season that I never thought would come, but he is 32 and also at risk for injury, and the lack of a quality backup would make his loss a damaging blow as evidenced by the first round series against Utah.  Artest will only add to an already solid Houston defense.  Flashy offense is what always get the headlines, but defense is still what wins championships.  And now, Houston has more scoring with Artest and a more-NBA-acclimated Luis Scola who, if he’s not starting, will be an early front-runner for Best Sixth Man.  I think they’ll start well, stay reasonably healthy, be ready come playoff time and all the talk of McGrady not being able to get out of the first round will be forgotten, just like it was for Kevin Garnett.  Houston beats Detroit in six games.

Next up:  A look at the top rookies

Converting to Euros

I was reading the NBA rumors this morning, trying to absorb all of the trade talk when I read one particular piece of news that could signal trouble brewing down the road.  Previously, I mentioned my dislike for the age limit, but I hadn't considered the financial repercussions thoroughly.  The news item was about Brazilian forward Tiago Splitter reneging on his agreement to join the San Antonio Spurs next season in favor of a four year extension with his current team, Tau Ceremica of the Euroleague, primarily because they can pay him several times what the NBA's rookie pay scale would allow.

Now consider, you're a LeBron James or a similarly gifted young American coming out of high school.  Your choices are play in the NCAA for peanuts, sit out a year and wait for the NBA (two years soon, if David Stern has his way and increases the age limit) or go play in the Euroleague right now for big bucks.  And after your initial contract with a Euroleague team is up, even if you're a star, you will still have to be restricted by the NBA rookie cap to come back home.  And that doesn't even consider that, in the Euroleague, you'll get paid in Euros, which are currently running pretty strong against the dollar.

What's to stop the best and brightest of American basketball youth from bolting overseas?  Patriotism?  And how difficult will it be to get them back in the NBA with the rookie wage scale?  How many stars will it take before Euroleague ball starts to compare favorably to the NBA in quality of play and competition?  It would be a bit ironic if David Stern's emphasis on international marketing of the game created a competitive market where the NBA would suffer, similar to what happened to the NFL in the early '80s with the USFL plucking stars, including several eventual Hall of Famers, right out of college.  The rookie wage scale could be a problem with NCAA stars, as well. 

As it is now, bolting overseas is seen as a last ditch effort by players who want to continue their careers but can't get on an NBA roster.  Most high schoolers and college players don't even consider the option.  But if it becomes more difficult to even get into the league, and can take up to five years from high school graduation to get paid what you're actually worth, that option may not stay with just fringe players.  A big-name talent, someone weighing these options, is going to open that door eventually and take the money.  And my guess is it will happen soon.  And when America's best start to spurn the NBA to go overseas, how long will it be before the international players that pepper NBA rosters today head back to their homes?  Now, the NBA is unquestionably the best league in the world, and everyone who's anyone wants to play with the best.  What happens when that designation is no longer so clear cut?

Stern would do well to carefully consider his decisions on these issues and cut it off before it becomes a possible nightmarish reality for the League, or we soon could be forced to watch late night feeds from Europe to see the best basketball in the world.

MVP: Most Valuable Player or Most Valuable Postseason?

It seems like nearly every year, the NBA's MVP voting would turn out remarkably different if it were held after the playoffs instead of after the regular season.  How many people still would have voted for Dirk Nowitzki last year after the Mavericks' historic collapse in the first round?  This year's MVP Kobe Bryant has a much stronger case after taking his team to the Finals, but, in my opinion, he wasn't a clear cut runaway with the award in the first place.  Not to say he didn't deserve it, I would have voted for him after the regular season, but why should the league's MVP award be given out before the most important and meaningful games of the season are even played?  Yes, there is the Finals MVP Award, but that discounts the performances of all of the players whose teams didn't reach the finals, a result often dictated by the relative strength of their supporting casts rather than any individual performance.

In my opinion, the MVP was a four-man race this year.  Here is how I would have voted after the regular season:

Player                             Points          Assists           Rebounds          Steals          Blocks
1.    Kobe Bryant            28.3               5.4                  6.3                        1.84            0.49      
2.    Chris Paul               21.1             11.6                 4.0                        2.71             0.05
3.    Kevin Garnett          18.8               3.4                  9.2                        1.41            1.25
4.    LeBron James       30.0                7.2                  7.9                        1.84            1.08   

Now,  after watching the playoffs, I've rearranged my thinking a bit.  I had LeBron 4th primarily because his team only won 47 games.  And Kobe beat out Chris Paul primarily because the Lakers beat out the Hornets for the top spot in the west.  And I wasn't yet a believer in the Celtics defense as the best in the league, despite 66 wins, so Garnett's efforts were downgraded a bit in my mind.

Now, it's pretty clear that both Chris Paul and LeBron James did more with less than Kobe Bryant (significantly less, in LeBron's case).  Garnett really did completely change Boston's approach, being instrumental in making them a truly excellent defensive team.  And Kobe led the way for a Laker team that handily beat the Nuggets, Jazz and Spurs on the way to the finals. 

But I suspect, had Manu Ginobli been healthy and his normal self, the Lakers might not have won that series with the Spurs.  Three of the four losses could have gone either way, despite some pretty miserable play from San Antonio, and the Spurs won the one game where Ginobli did look healthy pretty handily.  Against Boston, Kobe seemed to get worse as the series went on, as most of his teammates shrank as well, and did a disappearing act for long stretches of games 5 and 6.  Some of that was Boston's defense, but I think some of it was Kobe being too willing to launch long jumpers rather than find a way to adjust to the defense.

Chris Paul and the Hornets rolled through Dallas in the first round, and looked like they were going to do the same to San Antonio before the Spurs dug deep and fought to win the series in 7.  Their efforts against the Spurs sapped some of the juice from San Antonio's aging or ancient legs, making them further vulnerable to a much fresher Laker team that had cruised relatively untested through the first two rounds.  Paul's final assist of the playoffs was in wearing down the Spurs for the Lakers to take advantage.

I had only seen the Celtics a handful of times in the regular season, but after watching all 26 postseason games they played, it's was clearly apparent that Garnett, even though his stats weren't always fantastic, had truly reshaped what was a miserable team into a championship caliber club.  Admittedly, he clearly had the most talent around him by a pretty wide margin of any of the candidates, but talent doesn't win championships alone, the ability to merge that talent for a common goal does.  And Garnett led the way for the Celtic rejuvenation.

Unlike Kobe Bryant, LeBron James was able to adjust to the Celtics defense, going from completely baffled early in the series to completely dominant late in the series.  If it hadn't been for Paul Pierce putting up 41 in game 7 of their series with the Cavs, the Celtics wouldn't be hoisting any trophies.  And being that the Cavs beat Detroit last season, and nearly beat them the year before, it's not a stretch to suggest that LeBron could have returned to the Finals.  And with a team that plays the same kind of stifling defense that the Celtics used to beat the Lakers, who knows how that Finals matchup would have ended?  LeBron could be the one with the title surrounded by a team that would struggle to win 20 games all season without him in uniform.

So, here's how I would vote now, after watching the postseason, along with the player's post season stats:

Player                             Points          Assists          Rebounds          Steals          Blocks
1.   Kevin Garnett          20.4              3.3                 10.5                      1.35              1.12
2.   LeBron James       28.2               7.6                   7.8                      1.77              1.31
3.   Chris Paul               24.1              11.3                 4.9                       2.33              0.17
4.   Kobe Bryant            30.1               5.6                   5.7                       1.67              0.38

Any way I look at it, these four guys are all neck and neck.  I could arrange them in just about any order and it wouldn't be wrong.  So, just on gut instinct, after watching the post season, I would give it to Garnett.  It seems a little odd as he wasn't even the best player on his own team in the playoffs, but I just think his game changed the entire basis under which the Celtics play, the very essence of Most Valuable Player. 

By the way, I'm not a Kobe Hater.  I like Kobe Bryant as a player.  If anything, I think he defers his game too much.  I don't really think the Lakers roster is particularly well-suited to take full advantage of his skills.  They need big guys with heart to play physical inside, finish strong at the basket and rebound, unlike the Charmin-soft duo of Gasol and Odom.  But even liking a guy doesn't mean I'm not going to be critical if he deserves it.