Continuing on with my preseason look at the Eastern Conference, here are teams 6 through 10.  Last season, three teams at .500 or worse made the playoffs.  That is not going to happen again.  I believe it’s going to take 42-45 wins to get into the post season this year.  All five of these teams have the capability of getting that done.

10.  Toronto Raptors

Toronto is a trendy pick to move up in the East after trading for Jermaine O’Neal, but I just can’t bring myself to believe that he’ll stay on the floor all season, or be the kind of player he was five or six years ago.  That being said, the Raptors were just 41-41 last season.  They might actually have a better record this year and still miss the playoffs.  I like the move to clear out T.J. Ford and hand the full time point guard reins to Jose Calderon.  I expect him to end up in the top five in the league in assists, averaging double figures.  This team’s main drawback is a total lack of interior strength.  Their best big guys, Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani and O’Neal, all play small, and that will kill them in the end.  Still, they should be in playoff contention, coming up just short.

9.  Milwaukee Bucks    

I liked the Bucks chances better before they traded Mo Williams.  They did land Luke Ridnour in the deal, but he has been nothing short of miserable the past couple of years playing on really bad Seattle teams.  If he can regain some of the form he showed a few years ago when Seattle reached the second round of the playoffs, the Bucks will have an excellent shot of landing a playoff spot, and possibly making some noise when they get there.  With Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd, Charlie Villanueva, Andrew Bogut and explosive rookie Joe Alexander, he’ll have plenty of chances for assists, but a rejuvenation is far from secure.  If he can’t get it back together, Milwaukee will be in major trouble at the point, and that will cost them a chance at postseason play.  I’m guessing Ridnour will be solid yet unspectacular and the Bucks will miss the postseason by a hair, possibly going down to the final day of the season.

8.  Atlanta Hawks      

After years of futility, the Hawks finally broke through and nearly pulled the greatest upset in NBA playoff history, taking a Celtics team that was almost 30 games ahead of them in to standings to a game seven.  Just having Mike Bibby on the floor for a full season should be enough to get them over .500.  And it’s a distinct possibility that Marvin Williams will blossom now that Josh Childress is playing in Greece, Al Horford will take a step up into All Star territory and Josh Smith will move into superstar range.  And that’s not even mentioning Joe Johnson, who is still Atlanta’s best player.  Depth is the main concern, I think.  An injury or two that causes key players to miss significant time will derail the entire season.  My guess is they will be better right out of the gate this year, and two of the three key young guys will step up their games, crashing the post season for the second year in a row.  The short bench will be their downfall, however.  The Hawks are a year and a few shrewd personnel moves away from legitimate contention.

7.  Washington Wizards      

This is kind of a difficult team to figure.  They may have been better off letting Gilbert Arenas walk and spending that money elsewhere, but they gave him an enormous contract despite missing nearly the entire season with an injury, and the team performing very well without him.  Caron Butler, if he can stay away from the injuries that have hurt him throughout his career, looks to be a guy blossoming into a genuine star, and with Brendan Haywood looking like an actual player for the first time in his career and young big guy Andray Blatche looking as though he has a nice upside, the Wizards won’t be just the same old run and gun team.  Look for some of the toughness they displayed in the Cleveland series to carry over into this year, and winning home court advantage in the first round is a possibility.  But I expect they will again have some injury issues that will cost them a few games, and Agent Zero’s new contract will look even worse by the end of the season.  They’ll probably just be happy if they don’t have to face LeBron James and the Cavs in the first round again.

6.  Chicago Bulls       

This is the team I think will move up the most in the East.  Remember, just two seasons ago, Chicago swept the defending champions in the first round, before last season’s catastrophe, led by a disgruntled and massively overrated Ben Gordon.  From all reports, Gordon is done as a Bull, and to me, that is definite addition by subtraction.  It would have been an enormous mistake to pay him $10 million per year.  Chicago is much better off giving the bigger and more defense-minded Thabo Sefolosha more minutes than dealing with the streaky, much-too-small, defenseless Gordon any longer.  The main reason I think the Bulls will move into the playoffs is that I don’t think their roster is done.  I suspect there may be a major move coming up sometime this season.  The Bulls still have an abundance of pieces to package together, and their inability to put together deals for Pau Gasol, Kevin Garnett or any other quality player over the past few seasons has held this team back.  This year, I believe they get it done.  With the right deal, they could move up even higher.  I expect a slow start as Derrick Rose learns the pro game, but a strong finish, and a reconstituted team that could possibly pull a major upset come playoff time.

Next Up:  Top Of The Heap

 

Can someone explain to me why the NBA doesn't change the rules about the free agency and trade moratoriums or at least wait and hold the draft once the moratorium is up and the next year's salary cap is set?  Never did understand that.  And it could lead to more big trades on draft day, making an otherwise somewhat dull affair more exciting.   Anyway, I thought I'd look at a couple trades that I guess are official, if not formally so.  I'm sticking to trades that involved actual proven players, not just draft pick swaps, although a couple of these included draft picks.

Toronto-Indiana
The Raptors sent T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and the 17th pick of the draft (Roy Hibbert) to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal.  I guess this trade's official, although the last I heard, it couldn't be formally completed until July 1 because of some contract issue with Ford, and there was the small matter of physicals.  Indiana got rid of one highly paid major injury risk for another less-highly paid major injury risk.  They also receive a BIG center, albeit a slow, lumbering one in Roy Hibbert and another 7-footer in Nesterovic who played all of 15 minutes per game for Toronto in the playoffs.  The Pacers are remaking their roster, looking for better, more consistent guard play and more strength inside.   To me, Ford doesn't exactly scream "consistent" and, for a quick, slashing point guard, he is probably one bad fall away from it being his last.  But at least he's not Jamaal Tinsley.

Toronto gets Jermaine O'Neal, a guy who was the league's most improved player back in 2002 and a three time All-NBA player (twice on the third team and once on the second team).  Since then, he's become first team all injured reserve.  During his years in Indiana, The Pacers lost in the first round in three of their five playoff seasons, the second round once, reaching only one conference finals and O'Neal didn't exactly develop a reputation as a prime time player in big games.  Still, if he's healthy and motivated (both enormous if's) he could form a frightening combo with Chris Bosh.

Basically, it's a risk-reward move for Toronto.  If it pays off, they've made a big step up in a weak conference.  If it doesn't, all they gave up was an unwanted draft pick, a backup center and a point guard they pretty clearly no longer wanted or needed.  Indiana really should have traded O'Neal two or three years ago when they might have gotten something a little more useful in return.  Toronto wins this one, whatever happens.

Indiana-Portland
In this one, Portland sent the 13th pick in the draft Brandon Rush and Jarrett Jack to Indiana for Ike Diogu and the 11th pick in the draft Jerryd Bayless.

Indiana did a little better this time, but now they've got two point guards.  I'd bet they'll play much like Toronto did with Ford and Calderon, rotating quarters.  Brandon Rush has a shot to be pretty good though. 

Portland gets a little help inside with Diogu, if he gets off the bench, something that didn't happen very often in Indiana and something that's not guaranteed with Portland's depth of talent, and the guy they wanted in Bayless.  Not really sold on Bayless as point guard, but with Brandon Roy, he won't need to be and he can score.

A trade of middling reserves and draft picks with potential who may or may not pan out.  I'll call it even until I see what kind of players Rush and Bayless turn out to be.  Both guys could be hit or miss in my mind.

Milwaukee-New Jersey
Milwaukee sent Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons to New Jersey for Richard Jefferson.  Wow, a trade with no draft picks.   Straight up NBA players for NBA players.

New Jersey continued dumping salary in an effort to be in position to nab LeBron in a couple years.  It seems like a foregone conclusion that LeBron is out of Cleveland, and most of the speculation about his NBA future is the Knicks and Nets, with both clubs taking steps to make that a reality.  To me, it's a pretty dangerous move.  I seem to recall the Chicago Bulls and some other teams a few years ago doing the same sort of preparation to sign a big-time upcoming free agent playing for a small market club who was thought to  be available, Tim Duncan.  Needless to say, it didn't happen.  Duncan re-upped and those clubs counting on him were left out in the cold.  In this day and age, NBA superstars never leave their teams as free agents.  Trades maybe on occasion, but never as free agents.  Don't count on this happening, either.  But that doesn't mean that Vince Carter shouldn't be packing his bags, as well.

Yi has potential and wasn't really happy in Milwaukee anyway.  A move to the Nets (soon to be Brooklyn) gives him the bright lights he wanted.  Can he perform?  Bobby Simmons was the most improved player a few years back with the Clippers before signing a big free agent deal that has never panned out.

As for the Bucks, with Jefferson, they've got some talent on their roster.  Barring further moves (like a trade of Michael Redd) I wouldn't be surprised to see them in then playoffs in the east next season.  Not really a contender, though.

Unless Yi lives up to the initial hype, or they actually do land LeBron later on, the Bucks win this one.

I was going to say something poignant about the trade between Minnesota and Memphis that sent Mike Miller to the Timberwolves with draftee Kevin Love and salary throw ins for draftee O.J. Mayo and salary throw ins.  All I can say is Memphis had better hope Mayo is a superstar in the making because they gave up a solid NBA player in Miller and top 5 draft pick for him.  Of course, there may be a reason why the Grizzlies have never won a playoff game, let alone a series.  I'm sure Pau Gasol would agree.  But hey, Marc Gasol's coming next year and he's gonna make that Laker trade look like it wasn't just flat-out theft.  Right?