Killer Crossover
by: spanish_jam
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Preseason Western Conference: Bottom Of The Barrel
Sep 06, 2008 | 7:45AM | report this
Now that I’ve gone through the Eastern Conference, It’s time for the superior West.  Last season, the Western Conference was unbelievably strong, likely the most competitive array of teams one through ten in the history of the league.  This year, the top clubs are somewhat improved, but it’s probably not going to end up with the same clustered playoff picture where a team could go from out of the playoffs to 1st or vice versa in a matter of a just a couple of weeks.  Here are my opinions on the bottom third:

15.  Oklahoma City Thundercats

Okay, so that’s not really the name, but outside of Oklahoma, does anyone really care what they call this less-than-mediocre group?  Personally, I like my suggestion.  Imagine, Oklahoma City inbounding the ball and, as they bring it up the court, the PA announcer gets the crowd fired up with a chant of, “Thunder...Thunder...Thunder...Thundercats, ####!”  And I think that old Thundercats logo would look great on a jersey.  If Toronto can name a team after a cheesy dinosaur movie, then why not an old cartoon?  Their nickname notwithstanding, it’s going to take sight beyond sight to envision a time when this team is actually competitive.  This is the worst team in the league, hands down.  Kevin Durant may one day be a superstar, but not before he gets some actual talent around him.  If, by some freak chance, guys like Robert Swift, Chris Wilcox and Desmond Mason start suddenly playing up to their potential, they might be able to approach 30 wins.  Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook are the only other guys on the roster with any real upside, but it’s going to be at least a couple of years before that happens, if ever.  Oklahoma City might be thrilled to have a permanent NBA team now, but just wait until they have to suffer through the lean years that will result from gutting the roster to expedite the move.  Be careful what you wish for.

14.  Sacramento Kings

How the once almost-mighty have fallen.  I wanted to like Sacramento, I really did, mostly because Kevin Martin reminds me a little of Reggie Miller, but the trade of Ron Artest gave up a solid, all-star type scorer and defender for nothing more than a retread of a shooting guard in Bobby Jackson who was close to washed up before he left the Kings last time.  There is some talent here, but not nearly enough to compete in the West, and for every genuine player like underrated point guard Beno Udrih, there are two or three other guys like Jackson, Shelden Williams and Mikki Moore who would be overstating their value if I called them one-dimensional.  Has there ever been a guy with as much talent who has put up pretty decent numbers throughout his career and been as totally irrelevant as Shareef Abdur Rahim?  Brad Miller has got to be close to collecting Social Security by now, and I can barely recall why I was so high on Quincy Douby when he was drafted.  There’s just too much depth in the West for Sacramento to make any real noise.  Sadly, it seems like an eternity ago that the foursome of Webber, Divac, Stojakovic and Bibby put the Kings on the NBA map.  It may be a while before they find their way back.

13.  Memphis Grizzlies

I am actually somewhat optimistic about the Grizzlies, mainly because I suspect that O.J. Mayo is for real.  Forget Greg Oden, Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley, here is your Rookie Of The Year.  And I was surprisingly impressed by Marc Gasol during the Oylmpics.  If he comes to the NBA as a big, strong, space-eater not afraid to push people around with a couple of pretty decent back-to-the basket moves, the guard-heavy Grizzlies will cease being a pushover.  They might not win a lot of games this season, but they will be that dangerous team that can beat you if you’re not focused.  Probably a lousy road record but a respectable mark at home.  Rudy #### can score, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he and Mayo combine for close to 50 points a night.  But mostly, Memphis is all about questions.  Can Darko Milicic show some of the talent he came into the league with playing next to a genuine big guy like Gasol?  Will one or more of the guard trio of Kyle Lowry, Javaris Crittendon and Mike Conley show something this season?  Could Darrell Arthur possibly be the sleeper of the draft?  Young doesn’t begin to describe this team; the seven guys I just mentioned have a combined 10 years in the league, and three of those were Darko being stuck very deep on Detroit’s bench.  No chance whatsoever of them getting near the playoffs this season, but they are moving in the right direction.

12.  Minnesota Timberwolves

If you’re looking for a sleeper team that comes out of nowhere and has a nice little, completely unexpected stretch, this one is it.  It’s a shame they’re in the West.  If the Timberwolves played in the East, I would have seriously considered having them in the playoffs.  Kevin Garnett is unquestionably a great, all-time kind of player, but the suggestion that Minnesota got ripped off in that trade is flat wrong.  Al Jefferson is going to be a 20-10 guy long after Garnett has retired.  On draft day, I thought O.J. Mayo was going to make a fantastic outside to Jefferson’s inside for Minnesota for the next 10 years, but he was quickly traded.  If Kevin Love is even close to the kind of player some think he will be, landing him and Mike Miller from Memphis will save the Timberwolves from a black mark like Seattle earned when they drafted Scottie Pippen and then traded him for Olden Polynice.  Polynice turned out to be a halfway decent center who played for bunches of teams, but Pippen’s going to the Hall Of Fame with six rings.  A front court pairing of Jefferson and Love, along with Miller (the elder statesman of this team’s key players at the ripe old age of 28) and any of a number of young talent like Ryan Gomes, Craig Smith, Corey Brewer, Rodney Carney, Randy Foye, Rashad McCants and, yes, even Sebastian Telfair gives this team depth and flexibility.  But they are in the West where the learning curve is very steep, indeed.  There is no margin for error for the Timberwolves to get it all together, and being so young, so much can, and probably will, go wrong.  But don’t be surprised if they actually flirt with a playoff spot during the first half of the season.

11.  Denver Nuggets

This is what really separates the West from the East.  A team that would probably make the playoffs easily in the East isn’t even going to be in top 10 in the West.  Trading Marcus Camby definitely hurts, but it’s not like Denver hasn’t had to go long stretches without him on the floor in the past.  And I’ve always thought his defense was very overrated, anyway.  Sure, he blocks a lot of shots, and alters even more, but his straight-up defensive prowess isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.  He is to blocking shots what Allen Iverson is to steals.  No one would call A.I. a great defender, but he’s always near the league leaders in steals.  It’s easy to put up great defensive stats when that’s the only thing you’re trying for.  It’s Camby’s rebounding I think they’ll miss most.  If they manage to beat the odds and keep Nene and Kenyon Martin from going down, adding to their own long and storied injury histories, they will still have at least a presence in the paint and, who knows, maybe Renaldo Balkman actually has some defensive chops.  The guy I’m intrigued with is Linus Kleiza.  Watching the Nuggets late in the season and during their short-lived playoff stint, Kleiza’s play was giving me flashbacks of Drazen Petrovic, the former New Jersey Nets star who was tragically killed just as he beginning to emerge as a star.  With Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith and Kleiza, Denver will score tons of points.  Defense is their Achilles heel, however.  So what else is new?  The best they can hope for is that a couple of the other playoff-caliber clubs slip a bit, and they can slide into that eighth seed for another four or five game post season stint.

Next Up:  The Mid Majors

5 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NBA, Oklahoma City Thunder, Sacramento Kings, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets
 
Swap Meet
Jul 01, 2008 | 10:59AM | report this
Can someone explain to me why the NBA doesn't change the rules about the free agency and trade moratoriums or at least wait and hold the draft once the moratorium is up and the next year's salary cap is set?  Never did understand that.  And it could lead to more big trades on draft day, making an otherwise somewhat dull affair more exciting.   Anyway, I thought I'd look at a couple trades that I guess are official, if not formally so.  I'm sticking to trades that involved actual proven players, not just draft pick swaps, although a couple of these included draft picks.

Toronto-Indiana
The Raptors sent T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and the 17th pick of the draft (Roy Hibbert) to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal.  I guess this trade's official, although the last I heard, it couldn't be formally completed until July 1 because of some contract issue with Ford, and there was the small matter of physicals.  Indiana got rid of one highly paid major injury risk for another less-highly paid major injury risk.  They also receive a BIG center, albeit a slow, lumbering one in Roy Hibbert and another 7-footer in Nesterovic who played all of 15 minutes per game for Toronto in the playoffs.  The Pacers are remaking their roster, looking for better, more consistent guard play and more strength inside.   To me, Ford doesn't exactly scream "consistent" and, for a quick, slashing point guard, he is probably one bad fall away from it being his last.  But at least he's not Jamaal Tinsley.

Toronto gets Jermaine O'Neal, a guy who was the league's most improved player back in 2002 and a three time All-NBA player (twice on the third team and once on the second team).  Since then, he's become first team all injured reserve.  During his years in Indiana, The Pacers lost in the first round in three of their five playoff seasons, the second round once, reaching only one conference finals and O'Neal didn't exactly develop a reputation as a prime time player in big games.  Still, if he's healthy and motivated (both enormous if's) he could form a frightening combo with Chris Bosh.

Basically, it's a risk-reward move for Toronto.  If it pays off, they've made a big step up in a weak conference.  If it doesn't, all they gave up was an unwanted draft pick, a backup center and a point guard they pretty clearly no longer wanted or needed.  Indiana really should have traded O'Neal two or three years ago when they might have gotten something a little more useful in return.  Toronto wins this one, whatever happens.

Indiana-Portland
In this one, Portland sent the 13th pick in the draft Brandon Rush and Jarrett Jack to Indiana for Ike Diogu and the 11th pick in the draft Jerryd Bayless.

Indiana did a little better this time, but now they've got two point guards.  I'd bet they'll play much like Toronto did with Ford and Calderon, rotating quarters.  Brandon Rush has a shot to be pretty good though. 

Portland gets a little help inside with Diogu, if he gets off the bench, something that didn't happen very often in Indiana and something that's not guaranteed with Portland's depth of talent, and the guy they wanted in Bayless.  Not really sold on Bayless as point guard, but with Brandon Roy, he won't need to be and he can score.

A trade of middling reserves and draft picks with potential who may or may not pan out.  I'll call it even until I see what kind of players Rush and Bayless turn out to be.  Both guys could be hit or miss in my mind.

Milwaukee-New Jersey
Milwaukee sent Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons to New Jersey for Richard Jefferson.  Wow, a trade with no draft picks.   Straight up NBA players for NBA players.

New Jersey continued dumping salary in an effort to be in position to nab LeBron in a couple years.  It seems like a foregone conclusion that LeBron is out of Cleveland, and most of the speculation about his NBA future is the Knicks and Nets, with both clubs taking steps to make that a reality.  To me, it's a pretty dangerous move.  I seem to recall the Chicago Bulls and some other teams a few years ago doing the same sort of preparation to sign a big-time upcoming free agent playing for a small market club who was thought to  be available, Tim Duncan.  Needless to say, it didn't happen.  Duncan re-upped and those clubs counting on him were left out in the cold.  In this day and age, NBA superstars never leave their teams as free agents.  Trades maybe on occasion, but never as free agents.  Don't count on this happening, either.  But that doesn't mean that Vince Carter shouldn't be packing his bags, as well.

Yi has potential and wasn't really happy in Milwaukee anyway.  A move to the Nets (soon to be Brooklyn) gives him the bright lights he wanted.  Can he perform?  Bobby Simmons was the most improved player a few years back with the Clippers before signing a big free agent deal that has never panned out.

As for the Bucks, with Jefferson, they've got some talent on their roster.  Barring further moves (like a trade of Michael Redd) I wouldn't be surprised to see them in then playoffs in the east next season.  Not really a contender, though.

Unless Yi lives up to the initial hype, or they actually do land LeBron later on, the Bucks win this one.

I was going to say something poignant about the trade between Minnesota and Memphis that sent Mike Miller to the Timberwolves with draftee Kevin Love and salary throw ins for draftee O.J. Mayo and salary throw ins.  All I can say is Memphis had better hope Mayo is a superstar in the making because they gave up a solid NBA player in Miller and top 5 draft pick for him.  Of course, there may be a reason why the Grizzlies have never won a playoff game, let alone a series.  I'm sure Pau Gasol would agree.  But hey, Marc Gasol's coming next year and he's gonna make that Laker trade look like it wasn't just flat-out theft.  Right?
2 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NBA, Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers, New Jersey Nets, Portland Trail Blazers, Toronto Raptors, Minnesota Timberwolves, Memphis Grizzlies
 
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ABOUT ME


spanish_jam
I am an actual professional writer (hard to believe, I know, but I do earn a living at it) who even owns my own publishing company in Maryland. I am a proud drop-out from the University of Maryland and still a life-long Terp fan. My blog is named in honor of my favorite former NBA player, Tim Hardaway, without all the homophobia. I just loved the guy and his game. I only hope he doesn't kick my #### for saying that.
Time stamping is done in Pacific Time.