On The Rise

Here are five guys who’s games are about to emerge into stardom.  Each one is in a good situation on just the right team to excel.  By the end of the season, these guys will be talked about among the better players in the league.

1.  Rodney Stuckey, Detroit

Billups-lite, Stuckey emerged in the playoffs during Chauncey’s brief absence and showed the makings o####ame ready for prime time.  His rookie season was marred by injuries early, and that may have prevented what could have been a rookie-of-the-year type season and been the reason he was such a surprise in the playoffs.  He will continue to grow into what will soon be a cornerstone role for the Pistons, taking minutes away from Billups all the while.

2.  Al Thornton, L.A. Clippers

Tall, skilled and athletic, Thornton has got to be relishing the opportunity to play in an up-tempo offense directed by Baron Davis.  Young Al, one of several University of Florida players scattered around the league who look like they might have the goods to be solid pros if not more, will be a regular on nightly highlight reels finishing what Davis starts.  Plus, playing in the same frontcourt with Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby can only give Thornton more space to operate.  He’s in a great place to succeed, and I never thought I’d say that about a guy on the Clippers.

3.  Travis Outlaw, Portland

One of Portland’s many and varied young talents, Outlaw showed stretches of his potential during last season’s surprising run at respectability.  Outlaw is tall, 6’9” at least, quick enough to drive past most defenders, and has the makings of a nice shooter with three-point range.  To me, he’s a natural scorer, and his game only lacks the maturity to not press, and improve his shot selection.  He’s got the physical tools to defend at least adequately, and coach Nate McMillan will accept nothing less.  Portland has as much talent as any team in the league, and this season, that will start to translate into success.  Outlaw will be a huge part of that.

4.  Linus Kleiza, Denver

I used to love Drazen Petrovic.  His death was one of the great tragedies, in my mind, o####uy cut down just as he was reaching stardom.  Kleiza looks to be the second coming of Petrovic.  They even look somewhat alike with similar body types, and Kleiza showed flashes of a well-rounded offensive game at times last season.  His shot was good, if a little streaky, and he showed the quickness and the handle to get to the basket when possible.  He is also aggressive and fearless, not afraid to take shots.  Defensively, Denver is going to struggle even more than usual this season, making scoring that much more important.  The wide open game means that Kleiza is going to get an opportunity to show his stuff.

5.  Luis Scola, Houston

Scola came on strong as the season wore on for the Rockets.  By the end of the year, he was even garnering some support for beating out Kevin Durant for Rookie of the Year.  Scola is a high energy player, with a nice offensive game.  He’s also physical, and not afraid to defend.  On a Houston team that was lacking scoring at times, Scola will be a solid option for points, along with newly acquired Ron Artest.  He probably won’t start, as Shane Battier gives Houston a more versatile defensive lineup, but he will get lots of minutes and be a difference maker for the Rockets.  Letting Scola go will be seen as one of the few personnel mistakes made by the San Antonio Spurs in recent memory.  Scola has a solid shot at the Sixth Man award.

Others To Watch:  Rajon Rondo, Boston; Julian Wright, New Orleans; Al Horford, Atlanta; Danny Granger, Indiana; Joakim Noah, Chicago

 

On the Decline

Here are some guys who are staring on the downslope of what have been some pretty good careers.  Each of these guys, either through circumstance or loss of skills, will be transitioning into lesser roles, some of them on other teams.

1.  Ray Allen, Boston

Allen went through most of this season’s playoffs as less than useless.  He was, at times, the only defensive liability on the floor for Boston, and his shot wasn’t just off, he wasn’t even close.  For a guy who’s supposed to be such a great pure shooter, that’s a very disturbing trend.  He’s either losing a step to age or he’s just not a good fit on the team.  I think it’s a bit of both.  In any case, he will continue to backslide and will be the first of the big three to go.

2.  Peja Stojakovic, New Orleans

Peja had a nice rejuvenation last season, and he is in a nice place to keep it going as part of Chris Paul’s show featuring lots of open threes in transition.  But, as Bruce Bowen showed in the playoffs, put an actual defender in his face, and he struggles mightily.  Plus, with the addition of James Posey, more of the late-game attempts will be heading his way because of a penchant for actually making important shots, unlike Peja.  This season will mark the beginning a fade-out for Stojakovic to a lesser role, especially if he remains with the improving Hornets. 

3.  Chauncey Billups, Detroit

This one is more situational than performance.  With the emergence of Rodney Stuckey, a player with eerily similar characteristics, Billups will see his role start to diminish.  As Stuckey improves and his minutes go up, Billups’ minutes will go down.  The past couple of seasons, Chauncey ran out of gas by playoff time, and his post season performances were up and down.  The reduced minutes will probably help him keep fresh legs in May and, hopefully for Detroit, June, but because they are such similar players at the same position, the once irreplaceable Billups will now become a redundant piece heading for a new team next year, if not sooner.

4.  Manu Ginobili, San Antonio

Ginobili is a lot like Dwayne Wade in my eyes.  For him to be effective, he has to be able to play with a near-reckless abandon, throwing his body around without regard for consequences.  He’s also 31, and he has put a lot of mileage on the engine, with the long championship NBA seasons and International play for Argentina.  Still, last year was Ginobili’s best so far before injuries finally shut him down in the playoffs.  He’ll miss at least a month to start this season after ankle surgery, maybe more, and who knows how long it will be before he’s 100%.  A repeat of last season’s success is less likely than a repeat of the injuries that doomed it for the Spurs.

5.  Lamar Odom, L.A. Lakers

Odom may still put up good numbers somewhere for a few more years to come, but if his consistency and clutch play doesn’t improve quickly for the Lakers, he’ll be the first guy out the door.  Most players would prefer to be the guy who’s skills add to a team and who’s addition would put them over the top.  But Odom’s presence may be holding the Lakers back, and his subtraction could be more valuable to them.  After both the Clippers and the Heat gave up on Odom and his great potential, a Laker team on the cusp of greatness moving him out will be the deathknell to his championship hopes.  What contender is going to want a highly-paid guy who has ultimately been a disappointment everywhere he’s gone?

Others To Watch:  Antawn Jamison, Washington; Vince Carter, New Jersey; Steve Nash, Phoenix; Marcus Camby, L.A. Clippers; Zydunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland

 

On The Way Out

Here are some guys who are on their last legs as regular players.  Some will retire, some will become deep situational reserves on good teams, if they’re lucky.  It’s also not a coincidence that four of these guys have been traded recently.  But this year will be their swan song from being big contributors. 

1.  Bruce Bowen, San Antonio

Bowen is 37 and his days as a premier defender are past.  Unfortunately for him, his three point stroke seems to be leaving him as well.  He could still be a useful spot defender, but without the one thing that made his less-then-limited offensive game bearable, after this season, his time being more than an occasional reserve playing small and sometimes non-existent minutes is done.

2.  Jermaine O’Neal, Toronto

This is O’Neal’s last shot at a comeback.  If he spends more than half of this season injured, or can’t get the strength and quickness back into his game, he’ll be finished.  The Raptors will be let down in their hope that O’Neal could revive a once-promising career, and Jermaine will never again be anything more than a longshot, if he doesn’t walk away altogether.  One thing he was always lacking is the will to comeback and play o####rant Hill.

3.  Ben Wallace, Cleveland

Wallace was never the most gifted athlete, needing to work harder than everyone else to survive.  He may still have the will, and that’s debatable, but his motor is just not there any longer.  He’s become increasingly ineffective for long stretches, and that will only get worse as he continues to age.  Without more help than Cleveland currently has, he’ll have to play a lot of minutes, and that will further expose the not one, but two steps he’s lost.  Big Ben may hang around after this season, but because he’s such a massive liability with his free throw shooting, he’ll never be more than a spot bench reserve.

4.  Shaquille O’Neal, Phoenix

This will be Shaq’s last hurrah.  He may not retire, he himself has suggested he will stay through 2010, but if there is any game left in him, he’d better show it now.  Shaq has never been one for excellent fitness, and because of his size, it’s only a matter of time before leg injuries end his playing days.  It may not be one big one, but it will always be something.  That and the fact that he is a severe liability defensively and with his free throw shooting, and his offensive game has slowed to a crawl.  It will be harder and harder for any head coach to justify keeping him on the floor.  If he has any dignity, he’ll retire after this season before he embarrasses himself.

5.  Jason Kidd, Dallas

Kidd is another player who’s defensive liabilities and lack of shooting will ultimately mean severely curtailed minutes as a reserve.  He’s slowing down, can’t even disrupt the quicker guards who are populating nearly every team in the league, and is not even a threat to take a jump shot, making it tougher on the other four guys in half court sets.  He needs to run to be effective, but he’s 35 and not that fast, and up-tempo against quicker guards further exposes him as a defender.  What Sam Cassell did for the Celtics this season is about the best Kidd can hope for in the future.  Much sooner than he thinks.

Others To Watch:  Michael Finley, San Antonio; Luke Ridnour, Milwaukee; Alonzo Mourning, Miami; Brad Miller, Sacramento; T.J. Ford, Indiana

 

Next Up:  The last installment in my preseason ramblings, Fifteen Guys Who Would Be King.

 

Continuing on with the West, here are teams 6 through 10.  All five of these teams have the elements to be pretty good.  There are two veteran teams, two young teams, and one kinda in between.  Because the West is so strong, and each one of these teams is flawed in some way, nearly every one of them could make it into the conference’s top four or miss the playoffs altogether.

10.  Golden State Warriors

The injury to Monta Ellis keeps them down a little.  He’ll miss at least the first month of the season, maybe more, and who knows how long it will be before his injury is completely healed.  Ankle injuries tend to linger in the NBA, especially on a player who relies on quickness like Ellis.  They can only hope that it’s not an injury he’s plagued with all season.  Can Marcus Williams hold down the fort or will Chris Mullin make a trade, and will it be a good one?  The answers to those questions will largely determine whether the Warriors are in or out of the playoff picture.  Lacking Ellis’ offense, more pressure will be on Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette, but I suspect they’re both up to it.  Maggette will enjoy being unleashed in Don Nelson’s system, and I’ve always thought that Jackson might be the most underrated player in the entire league.  I expect Brandon Wright to improve across the board, as well.  I think they’ll tread water waiting for Ellis to get back to full strength, but fall just a little too far off the pace, and behind too many quality teams, to catch up.

9.  Los Angeles Clippers

Much like Houston, who I’ll discuss in the next section, a lot of what eventually happens during the Clippers’ season will depend on the number of games the key players accumulate on injured reserve.  Newcomers Baron Davis and Marcus Camby have long histories of injuries, yet both guys avoided such a fate last season.  L.A.’s other team has to hope that’s the start of a positive trend for them both.  If the duo plays at least 80 games each, I believe the Clippers will make the playoffs.  The frontline of Camby, Chris Kaman and superstar-to-be Al Thornton could be one of the best in the league.  If his minutes are kept down and his knees hold up, newly signed Jason Williams could actually be an effective backup for Davis.  Eric Gordon is a guy that I have a feeling will be talked about among the best rookies in the league by the end of the year.  But they are the Clippers.  Injuries will happen, if not to Camby or Davis, then it will be Kaman or Thornton.  L.A. will get close, probably after a good start, and fade just a little too far at the end.

8.  Phoenix Suns

The next two teams are basically interchangeable.  Phoenix and Dallas are linked in my mind in more ways than just their common employee Steve Nash.  They played similar up tempo styles, then have tried to transition to a slower pace, sometimes successfully as with the Mavericks a couple years ago, not so much with the Suns thus far.  Phoenix has a lot of talent, some of it young and improving.  If Shaquille O’Neal manages to stay on the floor consistently throughout the year, an enormous if, Amare Stoudemire could have a huge year freed up from the restrictions of playing center.  Boris Diaw has all the tools to be a stat stuffer in a number of categories, playing like a point guard from the post.  And Leandro Barbosa can score in bunches.  But they’re just too dependent on guys like Shaq, Grant Hill and especially Steve Nash, who are long in the tooth, to say the least.  Nash could have some troubles adapting to the change in style, and he did struggle with it after the Shaq trade and the playoff embarrassment against San Antonio.  Or he could miss time with injuries, always a possibility with his style of play at his age.  If either possibility turns into a prolonged problem, Phoenix will be in trouble.  They can compensate for lost time from almost anyone else, but if Nash goes down, the Suns will set before the playoffs even begin this season.  I think they’ll play very well in spots, but age, and games missed due to injury, will creep up on them.  Still, I think they’ll barely hold on to a playoff spot, and get to enjoy one last postseason stint, however brief, before this team will need a bit of a makeover.

7.  Dallas Mavericks

Falling apart against Golden State in the playoffs two years ago began a downward trend for this franchise.  They won 16 fewer games last season than the year before, and went out in the first round of the playoffs for the second straight time.  When Avery Johnson took over for Don Nelson, I thought that he was the perfect coach to take this group over the top, and things looked great right up until the collapse in game three of the Finals three years ago.  The next year, they looked poised to make up for that loss, but again were beaten.  Last year turned out to be a lost season, both in terms of wins and respect for Johnson as a coach.  He has clearly been outcoached by Pat Riley, Don Nelson and Byron Scott in consecutive postseason series, exposing his weaknesses for strategy and making adjustments.  Rick Carlisle can’t help but improve those flaws.  Unfortunately, this team has much more age under their belt than the one who almost took the title in 2006.  Jason Kidd is on his last legs, Dirk Nowitzki is on the wrong side of 30, and guys like Eddie Jones and Jerry Stackhouse aren’t finding the fountain of youth any time soon.  Still, they won 51 games last season, only six fewer than the number one seeded Lakers.  They still have Jason Terry and Josh Howard (flaws and all), they might have found something in Brandon Bass and 23-year-old Gerald Green will be given an opportunity to contribute to a team with some actual talent for a change.  Carlisle will put more emphasis on physical play and getting to the basket, and the return of DeSagana Diop sits Erick Dampier back where he belongs, moderate minutes as a backup center.  Dirk can excel playing this way, as evidenced by his MVP campaign two years ago.  He has the capability to drive, finish and make a very high percentage of a lot of free throws.  If he gets into the high 20’s or closer to 30 points per game, this team may be able to make a run.  They probably are too old and emotionally fragile to expect a trip back to the Finals, but they are fully capable of making some noise and being a much more difficult out than they have been the past two years.

6.  Portland Trailblazers

This is the new “It” team in the NBA.  Nearly everyone thinks Portland is headed for serious championship contention, if not Dynasty status.  I was a bit skeptical at first, but there is just too much talent here for them to fail.  Still, they are exceptionally young and more experience is needed before they can reasonably be expected to be title contenders.  If Greg Oden is anywhere near the player people expect, this season will mark the beginning a long streak of playoff appearances for the Blazers.  Brandon Roy could be headed for eventual All-NBA status, and the guy I’m most interested in is Travis Outlaw.  With good range on an improving jumpshot, a willingness to attack the basket with a variety of moves, and exceptional athleticism for a guy 6’9”, the ceiling for Outlaw could be as high as anyone on the team, and that’s saying something.  If Rudy Fernandez brings the shooting range and fearlessness he showed off during the Olympics, watch out.  But their youth will eventually do them in.  Oden, Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless are rookies; Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge have two season under their belts, Martell Webster and Channing Frye have played three seasons and Travis Outlaw is just now earning big minutes at age 23 after being drafted right out of high school.  No team made up of predominantly young players goes from the Lottery to the title without paying their dues, and with the West being so loaded, this season will be a learning experience for Portland.  Everyone else in the Conference who has designs on a championship had better take advantage now, because by the spring of 2010, the Blazers just might be the best team in the league.

Next Up:  The West’s Elite

Wow, did Baron Davis' dreams of a winning return to L.A. vanish quickly.  I wasn't really sold on the the Davis-Elton Brand combo as a playoff ticket anyway.  For one thing, Brand--Mr. 20 and 10 as he's being called nowadays--has made the playoffs all of once in nine seasons in a league where over half the teams make the postseason.  Admittedly, he did play with some lousy teams with the Clippers and Bulls, but everyone should know by now that a good player on a bad team always puts up inflated stats.  Would he have a career 20-10 averages on championship contenders?  I don't think so.  And his one playoff appearance was on a team led by Sam Cassell when he could still play, a bonafide winner everywhere he goes.  I mean the guy helped lead Milwaukee and Minnesota to Conference Championship Series, not to mention his three rings with Houston and Boston.  Does Baron Davis have that kind of pedigree?  Nope.

The Clippers did win a first round series that year, but they beat the Nuggets,a perpetual first round whipping boy.  And they did take a Phoenix team without Amare Stoudamire to a game seven, but came up short.   All the promise in that team quickly vanished, however, and they were back to the same old Clips.  Davis, on the other hand, has been on a handful of playoff teams in his career, but never got out of the second round either.  Last year, he played in all 82 games, but he only played in more than 60 games twice in the previous six seasons, and never more than 67.  Keeping him healthy and on the court has always been an issue.

But now, that doesn't matter.  Brand is a new Philadelphia 76er and all the talk is about how they are championship contenders now.  Well, not quite.  For one thing, let's see what kind of shape he's in after missing all but 8 games last year before we anoint them as this year's Celtics.  There's a lot of talk about the good nucleus, and how they were up and coming before signing Brand.  Well, they do have some good young talent, but they were still 40-42 last year, in a season where they clearly over-performed in a really bad conference.  They did go up 2-1 on the mighty Pistons, but we all know Detroit has a tendency to lose games in the playoffs to teams it should stomp.  Once they fell behind, Detroit crushed Philadelphia handily in the last three games.  Did the Sixers actually win those two games or did the Pistons just sleep-walk through them?  I'm guessing the latter.

Does this mean Philly will miss the playoffs?  Doubtful in the mediocre east, but not out of the realm of possibility.  First of all, they need to match whatever deal is on the table for restricted free agent Andre Igoudala, then they have to keep everyone healthy and on the court.  Even at that, I still don't see them being much better than a lower playoff seed, first round exit kind of club.  And don't expect three teams at .500 or worse making the playoffs in the East again this year, so they'd better approach 50 wins, or they could be back in the lottery themselves.

As for the Clippers, I would throw the entire check book at Josh Smith and pray that the Atlanta Hawks won't be intelligent enough to match.  Or maybe make an enormous offer sheet to Igoudala just to drive up his price for Philly.  Nothing like a little gamesmanship, just ask the Warriors, who signed away the Clippers other best player, Corey Maggette.  Outside of that, and probably even with that, it's lottery time again.

Maggette, on the other hand, showed himself to be a true loser.  He was courted by virtually every legit title contender in the league; San Antonio, Boston, Detroit, Cleveland; for mid-level exception money ($5.8 million).  Instead, he took $10 million to take Baron Davis's place in Golden State, moving from one of the league's perpetual losers to another.  Golden State does have some talent, but even coach Don Nelson admits he's going with younger players this season at the expense of victories.  Backtracking from their 48 wins of last year isn't going to get it done in a conference where the eighth seed had 50 wins, and who really knows how good Portland can be?   He could have played one year with San Antonio or Detroit on a national stage, maybe taken home a ring, and still gotten a big payday next year.  Or better yet, two years polishing a championship resume then been in position to cash in on the salary cap space left over from the LeBron James losers.  But no, he took the money today over any realistic chance for a title.  Golden State may grow into a contender in two or three years, but in the West as of now, they're still a lottery team.  I guess he just wanted to stay in his comfort zone, watching the playoffs on t.v. rather than playing in them.  But hey, at least he can afford a nice couch.

By the way, I'm really hoping the Lakers trade for Ron Artest.  Talent-wise, he'd be a perfect fit for what they need, but is the Staples Center really big enough for the egos of Kobe and RonRon?  I can't wait to see how long they can go before being at each other's throats.  And Artest's not like Shaq, who will just childishly rip someone behind their back.  He'll smack Kobe upset his head if the mood strikes him.  After all, what's more fitting than the team from Hollywood having a little drama? 

It seems like I've been hit or miss lately. Not 24 hours after I made the strong proclamation that NBA superstars never leave their teams as free agents, Baron Davis opted out of his contract with the Warriors to, most likely, sign as a free agent with the Clippers. But hey, who could have expected a guy to take a $4 million pay cut to go play for the Clippers, of all teams, especially after their best two players, Corey Maggette and Elton Brand, both opted out to become free agents themselves? Now, you can argue (as I probably would) that Davis isn't really a superstar, but he is a great player that's clearly the the face of a franchise and team leader. Close enough.

And while Brand's opt out is most likely a play for what amounts to a contract extension, Maggette is as good as gone. And it looks like Gilbert Arenas may be gone from Washington, as well, although staying is still a possibility. If this were two years ago, or even last season, Agent Zero might have made a case for being a superstar. (By the way, is Agent Zero his nickname because of the number on his jersey or the number of late May and June playoffs games he's appeared in?) Now, he's coming off of a severe injury and nobody knows if he'll be his normal explosive scoring self, so the superstar tag doesn't apply. Same for Brand. Until we see if he's actually healthy and back playing like the MVP candidate he was three years ago, he's just another big name guy looking for a comeback season.

Davis himself is usually all about injured reserve, but he actually played all 82 games last year, right up to the point that Don Nelson benched him for the second half of the last game of the season. Apparently, that annoyed Baron so much that he left money on the table in Oakland to suit up for what is quite possibly the worst franchise in all of sports. Of course, if he can somehow win leading the Clips, he'll become legendary. After all, look what leading the New Jersey Nets to two straight NBA Finals did for Jason Kidd's reputation. Before that, he was just another wife-beater with a lousy a jump shot that Phoenix couldn't get rid of fast enough.

These three guys are most likely going to take home enormous amounts of cash this off-season, but my money's on the three of them not playing 82 games next season combined. Meanwhile, Maggette may be the guy most likely to rejuvenate his career. If, as the rumor suggests, he lands in San Antonio playing with great players and a great coach, gets his head on straight and remembers how he used to play defense, he may be hoisting a trophy this time next year while the other three are hoisting a cold one while watching the playoffs on TV.

While my free agency comment was a little suspect, I did, however, suggest that eventually, a big name player was going to head overseas for the money. When I wrote it, I expected it to be a year or two or three before someone tried it, but apparently, one of the top rated incoming freshmen in the country, Brandon Jennings, is strongly considering (i.e., taking the money and running) signing overseas instead of playing for the University of Arizona next year. The NBA had better be very, very careful with how they handle this.

In my mind, given the option of going right into the NBA, the very thought of playing in Europe would never, ever have been a factor. But now, faced with a year of essentially indentured servitude to the NCAA (especially for big time talents), real hard cash and actual professional-level instruction not only will become a factor, it's most likely the best decision. Now consider, if Jennings dominates over there, presuming he goes, builds a fan base, gets some international marketing dollars, will it be all that easy to get him back? After all, he will still have the NBA rookie pay scale to adhere to.

Tiago Splitter stayed in Europe this year instead of coming to the Spurs because of the rookie scale. Guard Juan Carlos Navarro of the Grizzlies, despite showing promise and most likely lining up for a nice payday, split back to Spain, primarily because being paid in Euros is now better than being paid in dollars. I'd be willing to bet somewhere David Stern is praying Brandon Jennings is a massive flop. Otherwise, there could be big, big problems on the horizon for the NBA. Isn't Internationalism great?