Continuing on with the West, here are teams 6 through 10.  All five of these teams have the elements to be pretty good.  There are two veteran teams, two young teams, and one kinda in between.  Because the West is so strong, and each one of these teams is flawed in some way, nearly every one of them could make it into the conference’s top four or miss the playoffs altogether.

10.  Golden State Warriors

The injury to Monta Ellis keeps them down a little.  He’ll miss at least the first month of the season, maybe more, and who knows how long it will be before his injury is completely healed.  Ankle injuries tend to linger in the NBA, especially on a player who relies on quickness like Ellis.  They can only hope that it’s not an injury he’s plagued with all season.  Can Marcus Williams hold down the fort or will Chris Mullin make a trade, and will it be a good one?  The answers to those questions will largely determine whether the Warriors are in or out of the playoff picture.  Lacking Ellis’ offense, more pressure will be on Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette, but I suspect they’re both up to it.  Maggette will enjoy being unleashed in Don Nelson’s system, and I’ve always thought that Jackson might be the most underrated player in the entire league.  I expect Brandon Wright to improve across the board, as well.  I think they’ll tread water waiting for Ellis to get back to full strength, but fall just a little too far off the pace, and behind too many quality teams, to catch up.

9.  Los Angeles Clippers

Much like Houston, who I’ll discuss in the next section, a lot of what eventually happens during the Clippers’ season will depend on the number of games the key players accumulate on injured reserve.  Newcomers Baron Davis and Marcus Camby have long histories of injuries, yet both guys avoided such a fate last season.  L.A.’s other team has to hope that’s the start of a positive trend for them both.  If the duo plays at least 80 games each, I believe the Clippers will make the playoffs.  The frontline of Camby, Chris Kaman and superstar-to-be Al Thornton could be one of the best in the league.  If his minutes are kept down and his knees hold up, newly signed Jason Williams could actually be an effective backup for Davis.  Eric Gordon is a guy that I have a feeling will be talked about among the best rookies in the league by the end of the year.  But they are the Clippers.  Injuries will happen, if not to Camby or Davis, then it will be Kaman or Thornton.  L.A. will get close, probably after a good start, and fade just a little too far at the end.

8.  Phoenix Suns

The next two teams are basically interchangeable.  Phoenix and Dallas are linked in my mind in more ways than just their common employee Steve Nash.  They played similar up tempo styles, then have tried to transition to a slower pace, sometimes successfully as with the Mavericks a couple years ago, not so much with the Suns thus far.  Phoenix has a lot of talent, some of it young and improving.  If Shaquille O’Neal manages to stay on the floor consistently throughout the year, an enormous if, Amare Stoudemire could have a huge year freed up from the restrictions of playing center.  Boris Diaw has all the tools to be a stat stuffer in a number of categories, playing like a point guard from the post.  And Leandro Barbosa can score in bunches.  But they’re just too dependent on guys like Shaq, Grant Hill and especially Steve Nash, who are long in the tooth, to say the least.  Nash could have some troubles adapting to the change in style, and he did struggle with it after the Shaq trade and the playoff embarrassment against San Antonio.  Or he could miss time with injuries, always a possibility with his style of play at his age.  If either possibility turns into a prolonged problem, Phoenix will be in trouble.  They can compensate for lost time from almost anyone else, but if Nash goes down, the Suns will set before the playoffs even begin this season.  I think they’ll play very well in spots, but age, and games missed due to injury, will creep up on them.  Still, I think they’ll barely hold on to a playoff spot, and get to enjoy one last postseason stint, however brief, before this team will need a bit of a makeover.

7.  Dallas Mavericks

Falling apart against Golden State in the playoffs two years ago began a downward trend for this franchise.  They won 16 fewer games last season than the year before, and went out in the first round of the playoffs for the second straight time.  When Avery Johnson took over for Don Nelson, I thought that he was the perfect coach to take this group over the top, and things looked great right up until the collapse in game three of the Finals three years ago.  The next year, they looked poised to make up for that loss, but again were beaten.  Last year turned out to be a lost season, both in terms of wins and respect for Johnson as a coach.  He has clearly been outcoached by Pat Riley, Don Nelson and Byron Scott in consecutive postseason series, exposing his weaknesses for strategy and making adjustments.  Rick Carlisle can’t help but improve those flaws.  Unfortunately, this team has much more age under their belt than the one who almost took the title in 2006.  Jason Kidd is on his last legs, Dirk Nowitzki is on the wrong side of 30, and guys like Eddie Jones and Jerry Stackhouse aren’t finding the fountain of youth any time soon.  Still, they won 51 games last season, only six fewer than the number one seeded Lakers.  They still have Jason Terry and Josh Howard (flaws and all), they might have found something in Brandon Bass and 23-year-old Gerald Green will be given an opportunity to contribute to a team with some actual talent for a change.  Carlisle will put more emphasis on physical play and getting to the basket, and the return of DeSagana Diop sits Erick Dampier back where he belongs, moderate minutes as a backup center.  Dirk can excel playing this way, as evidenced by his MVP campaign two years ago.  He has the capability to drive, finish and make a very high percentage of a lot of free throws.  If he gets into the high 20’s or closer to 30 points per game, this team may be able to make a run.  They probably are too old and emotionally fragile to expect a trip back to the Finals, but they are fully capable of making some noise and being a much more difficult out than they have been the past two years.

6.  Portland Trailblazers

This is the new “It” team in the NBA.  Nearly everyone thinks Portland is headed for serious championship contention, if not Dynasty status.  I was a bit skeptical at first, but there is just too much talent here for them to fail.  Still, they are exceptionally young and more experience is needed before they can reasonably be expected to be title contenders.  If Greg Oden is anywhere near the player people expect, this season will mark the beginning a long streak of playoff appearances for the Blazers.  Brandon Roy could be headed for eventual All-NBA status, and the guy I’m most interested in is Travis Outlaw.  With good range on an improving jumpshot, a willingness to attack the basket with a variety of moves, and exceptional athleticism for a guy 6’9”, the ceiling for Outlaw could be as high as anyone on the team, and that’s saying something.  If Rudy Fernandez brings the shooting range and fearlessness he showed off during the Olympics, watch out.  But their youth will eventually do them in.  Oden, Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless are rookies; Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge have two season under their belts, Martell Webster and Channing Frye have played three seasons and Travis Outlaw is just now earning big minutes at age 23 after being drafted right out of high school.  No team made up of predominantly young players goes from the Lottery to the title without paying their dues, and with the West being so loaded, this season will be a learning experience for Portland.  Everyone else in the Conference who has designs on a championship had better take advantage now, because by the spring of 2010, the Blazers just might be the best team in the league.

Next Up:  The West’s Elite

Wow, did Baron Davis' dreams of a winning return to L.A. vanish quickly.  I wasn't really sold on the the Davis-Elton Brand combo as a playoff ticket anyway.  For one thing, Brand--Mr. 20 and 10 as he's being called nowadays--has made the playoffs all of once in nine seasons in a league where over half the teams make the postseason.  Admittedly, he did play with some lousy teams with the Clippers and Bulls, but everyone should know by now that a good player on a bad team always puts up inflated stats.  Would he have a career 20-10 averages on championship contenders?  I don't think so.  And his one playoff appearance was on a team led by Sam Cassell when he could still play, a bonafide winner everywhere he goes.  I mean the guy helped lead Milwaukee and Minnesota to Conference Championship Series, not to mention his three rings with Houston and Boston.  Does Baron Davis have that kind of pedigree?  Nope.

The Clippers did win a first round series that year, but they beat the Nuggets,a perpetual first round whipping boy.  And they did take a Phoenix team without Amare Stoudamire to a game seven, but came up short.   All the promise in that team quickly vanished, however, and they were back to the same old Clips.  Davis, on the other hand, has been on a handful of playoff teams in his career, but never got out of the second round either.  Last year, he played in all 82 games, but he only played in more than 60 games twice in the previous six seasons, and never more than 67.  Keeping him healthy and on the court has always been an issue.

But now, that doesn't matter.  Brand is a new Philadelphia 76er and all the talk is about how they are championship contenders now.  Well, not quite.  For one thing, let's see what kind of shape he's in after missing all but 8 games last year before we anoint them as this year's Celtics.  There's a lot of talk about the good nucleus, and how they were up and coming before signing Brand.  Well, they do have some good young talent, but they were still 40-42 last year, in a season where they clearly over-performed in a really bad conference.  They did go up 2-1 on the mighty Pistons, but we all know Detroit has a tendency to lose games in the playoffs to teams it should stomp.  Once they fell behind, Detroit crushed Philadelphia handily in the last three games.  Did the Sixers actually win those two games or did the Pistons just sleep-walk through them?  I'm guessing the latter.

Does this mean Philly will miss the playoffs?  Doubtful in the mediocre east, but not out of the realm of possibility.  First of all, they need to match whatever deal is on the table for restricted free agent Andre Igoudala, then they have to keep everyone healthy and on the court.  Even at that, I still don't see them being much better than a lower playoff seed, first round exit kind of club.  And don't expect three teams at .500 or worse making the playoffs in the East again this year, so they'd better approach 50 wins, or they could be back in the lottery themselves.

As for the Clippers, I would throw the entire check book at Josh Smith and pray that the Atlanta Hawks won't be intelligent enough to match.  Or maybe make an enormous offer sheet to Igoudala just to drive up his price for Philly.  Nothing like a little gamesmanship, just ask the Warriors, who signed away the Clippers other best player, Corey Maggette.  Outside of that, and probably even with that, it's lottery time again.

Maggette, on the other hand, showed himself to be a true loser.  He was courted by virtually every legit title contender in the league; San Antonio, Boston, Detroit, Cleveland; for mid-level exception money ($5.8 million).  Instead, he took $10 million to take Baron Davis's place in Golden State, moving from one of the league's perpetual losers to another.  Golden State does have some talent, but even coach Don Nelson admits he's going with younger players this season at the expense of victories.  Backtracking from their 48 wins of last year isn't going to get it done in a conference where the eighth seed had 50 wins, and who really knows how good Portland can be?   He could have played one year with San Antonio or Detroit on a national stage, maybe taken home a ring, and still gotten a big payday next year.  Or better yet, two years polishing a championship resume then been in position to cash in on the salary cap space left over from the LeBron James losers.  But no, he took the money today over any realistic chance for a title.  Golden State may grow into a contender in two or three years, but in the West as of now, they're still a lottery team.  I guess he just wanted to stay in his comfort zone, watching the playoffs on t.v. rather than playing in them.  But hey, at least he can afford a nice couch.

By the way, I'm really hoping the Lakers trade for Ron Artest.  Talent-wise, he'd be a perfect fit for what they need, but is the Staples Center really big enough for the egos of Kobe and RonRon?  I can't wait to see how long they can go before being at each other's throats.  And Artest's not like Shaq, who will just childishly rip someone behind their back.  He'll smack Kobe upset his head if the mood strikes him.  After all, what's more fitting than the team from Hollywood having a little drama? 

It seems like I've been hit or miss lately. Not 24 hours after I made the strong proclamation that NBA superstars never leave their teams as free agents, Baron Davis opted out of his contract with the Warriors to, most likely, sign as a free agent with the Clippers. But hey, who could have expected a guy to take a $4 million pay cut to go play for the Clippers, of all teams, especially after their best two players, Corey Maggette and Elton Brand, both opted out to become free agents themselves? Now, you can argue (as I probably would) that Davis isn't really a superstar, but he is a great player that's clearly the the face of a franchise and team leader. Close enough.

And while Brand's opt out is most likely a play for what amounts to a contract extension, Maggette is as good as gone. And it looks like Gilbert Arenas may be gone from Washington, as well, although staying is still a possibility. If this were two years ago, or even last season, Agent Zero might have made a case for being a superstar. (By the way, is Agent Zero his nickname because of the number on his jersey or the number of late May and June playoffs games he's appeared in?) Now, he's coming off of a severe injury and nobody knows if he'll be his normal explosive scoring self, so the superstar tag doesn't apply. Same for Brand. Until we see if he's actually healthy and back playing like the MVP candidate he was three years ago, he's just another big name guy looking for a comeback season.

Davis himself is usually all about injured reserve, but he actually played all 82 games last year, right up to the point that Don Nelson benched him for the second half of the last game of the season. Apparently, that annoyed Baron so much that he left money on the table in Oakland to suit up for what is quite possibly the worst franchise in all of sports. Of course, if he can somehow win leading the Clips, he'll become legendary. After all, look what leading the New Jersey Nets to two straight NBA Finals did for Jason Kidd's reputation. Before that, he was just another wife-beater with a lousy a jump shot that Phoenix couldn't get rid of fast enough.

These three guys are most likely going to take home enormous amounts of cash this off-season, but my money's on the three of them not playing 82 games next season combined. Meanwhile, Maggette may be the guy most likely to rejuvenate his career. If, as the rumor suggests, he lands in San Antonio playing with great players and a great coach, gets his head on straight and remembers how he used to play defense, he may be hoisting a trophy this time next year while the other three are hoisting a cold one while watching the playoffs on TV.

While my free agency comment was a little suspect, I did, however, suggest that eventually, a big name player was going to head overseas for the money. When I wrote it, I expected it to be a year or two or three before someone tried it, but apparently, one of the top rated incoming freshmen in the country, Brandon Jennings, is strongly considering (i.e., taking the money and running) signing overseas instead of playing for the University of Arizona next year. The NBA had better be very, very careful with how they handle this.

In my mind, given the option of going right into the NBA, the very thought of playing in Europe would never, ever have been a factor. But now, faced with a year of essentially indentured servitude to the NCAA (especially for big time talents), real hard cash and actual professional-level instruction not only will become a factor, it's most likely the best decision. Now consider, if Jennings dominates over there, presuming he goes, builds a fan base, gets some international marketing dollars, will it be all that easy to get him back? After all, he will still have the NBA rookie pay scale to adhere to.

Tiago Splitter stayed in Europe this year instead of coming to the Spurs because of the rookie scale. Guard Juan Carlos Navarro of the Grizzlies, despite showing promise and most likely lining up for a nice payday, split back to Spain, primarily because being paid in Euros is now better than being paid in dollars. I'd be willing to bet somewhere David Stern is praying Brandon Jennings is a massive flop. Otherwise, there could be big, big problems on the horizon for the NBA. Isn't Internationalism great?