On The Rise

Here are five guys who’s games are about to emerge into stardom.  Each one is in a good situation on just the right team to excel.  By the end of the season, these guys will be talked about among the better players in the league.

1.  Rodney Stuckey, Detroit

Billups-lite, Stuckey emerged in the playoffs during Chauncey’s brief absence and showed the makings o####ame ready for prime time.  His rookie season was marred by injuries early, and that may have prevented what could have been a rookie-of-the-year type season and been the reason he was such a surprise in the playoffs.  He will continue to grow into what will soon be a cornerstone role for the Pistons, taking minutes away from Billups all the while.

2.  Al Thornton, L.A. Clippers

Tall, skilled and athletic, Thornton has got to be relishing the opportunity to play in an up-tempo offense directed by Baron Davis.  Young Al, one of several University of Florida players scattered around the league who look like they might have the goods to be solid pros if not more, will be a regular on nightly highlight reels finishing what Davis starts.  Plus, playing in the same frontcourt with Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby can only give Thornton more space to operate.  He’s in a great place to succeed, and I never thought I’d say that about a guy on the Clippers.

3.  Travis Outlaw, Portland

One of Portland’s many and varied young talents, Outlaw showed stretches of his potential during last season’s surprising run at respectability.  Outlaw is tall, 6’9” at least, quick enough to drive past most defenders, and has the makings of a nice shooter with three-point range.  To me, he’s a natural scorer, and his game only lacks the maturity to not press, and improve his shot selection.  He’s got the physical tools to defend at least adequately, and coach Nate McMillan will accept nothing less.  Portland has as much talent as any team in the league, and this season, that will start to translate into success.  Outlaw will be a huge part of that.

4.  Linus Kleiza, Denver

I used to love Drazen Petrovic.  His death was one of the great tragedies, in my mind, o####uy cut down just as he was reaching stardom.  Kleiza looks to be the second coming of Petrovic.  They even look somewhat alike with similar body types, and Kleiza showed flashes of a well-rounded offensive game at times last season.  His shot was good, if a little streaky, and he showed the quickness and the handle to get to the basket when possible.  He is also aggressive and fearless, not afraid to take shots.  Defensively, Denver is going to struggle even more than usual this season, making scoring that much more important.  The wide open game means that Kleiza is going to get an opportunity to show his stuff.

5.  Luis Scola, Houston

Scola came on strong as the season wore on for the Rockets.  By the end of the year, he was even garnering some support for beating out Kevin Durant for Rookie of the Year.  Scola is a high energy player, with a nice offensive game.  He’s also physical, and not afraid to defend.  On a Houston team that was lacking scoring at times, Scola will be a solid option for points, along with newly acquired Ron Artest.  He probably won’t start, as Shane Battier gives Houston a more versatile defensive lineup, but he will get lots of minutes and be a difference maker for the Rockets.  Letting Scola go will be seen as one of the few personnel mistakes made by the San Antonio Spurs in recent memory.  Scola has a solid shot at the Sixth Man award.

Others To Watch:  Rajon Rondo, Boston; Julian Wright, New Orleans; Al Horford, Atlanta; Danny Granger, Indiana; Joakim Noah, Chicago

 

On the Decline

Here are some guys who are staring on the downslope of what have been some pretty good careers.  Each of these guys, either through circumstance or loss of skills, will be transitioning into lesser roles, some of them on other teams.

1.  Ray Allen, Boston

Allen went through most of this season’s playoffs as less than useless.  He was, at times, the only defensive liability on the floor for Boston, and his shot wasn’t just off, he wasn’t even close.  For a guy who’s supposed to be such a great pure shooter, that’s a very disturbing trend.  He’s either losing a step to age or he’s just not a good fit on the team.  I think it’s a bit of both.  In any case, he will continue to backslide and will be the first of the big three to go.

2.  Peja Stojakovic, New Orleans

Peja had a nice rejuvenation last season, and he is in a nice place to keep it going as part of Chris Paul’s show featuring lots of open threes in transition.  But, as Bruce Bowen showed in the playoffs, put an actual defender in his face, and he struggles mightily.  Plus, with the addition of James Posey, more of the late-game attempts will be heading his way because of a penchant for actually making important shots, unlike Peja.  This season will mark the beginning a fade-out for Stojakovic to a lesser role, especially if he remains with the improving Hornets. 

3.  Chauncey Billups, Detroit

This one is more situational than performance.  With the emergence of Rodney Stuckey, a player with eerily similar characteristics, Billups will see his role start to diminish.  As Stuckey improves and his minutes go up, Billups’ minutes will go down.  The past couple of seasons, Chauncey ran out of gas by playoff time, and his post season performances were up and down.  The reduced minutes will probably help him keep fresh legs in May and, hopefully for Detroit, June, but because they are such similar players at the same position, the once irreplaceable Billups will now become a redundant piece heading for a new team next year, if not sooner.

4.  Manu Ginobili, San Antonio

Ginobili is a lot like Dwayne Wade in my eyes.  For him to be effective, he has to be able to play with a near-reckless abandon, throwing his body around without regard for consequences.  He’s also 31, and he has put a lot of mileage on the engine, with the long championship NBA seasons and International play for Argentina.  Still, last year was Ginobili’s best so far before injuries finally shut him down in the playoffs.  He’ll miss at least a month to start this season after ankle surgery, maybe more, and who knows how long it will be before he’s 100%.  A repeat of last season’s success is less likely than a repeat of the injuries that doomed it for the Spurs.

5.  Lamar Odom, L.A. Lakers

Odom may still put up good numbers somewhere for a few more years to come, but if his consistency and clutch play doesn’t improve quickly for the Lakers, he’ll be the first guy out the door.  Most players would prefer to be the guy who’s skills add to a team and who’s addition would put them over the top.  But Odom’s presence may be holding the Lakers back, and his subtraction could be more valuable to them.  After both the Clippers and the Heat gave up on Odom and his great potential, a Laker team on the cusp of greatness moving him out will be the deathknell to his championship hopes.  What contender is going to want a highly-paid guy who has ultimately been a disappointment everywhere he’s gone?

Others To Watch:  Antawn Jamison, Washington; Vince Carter, New Jersey; Steve Nash, Phoenix; Marcus Camby, L.A. Clippers; Zydunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland

 

On The Way Out

Here are some guys who are on their last legs as regular players.  Some will retire, some will become deep situational reserves on good teams, if they’re lucky.  It’s also not a coincidence that four of these guys have been traded recently.  But this year will be their swan song from being big contributors. 

1.  Bruce Bowen, San Antonio

Bowen is 37 and his days as a premier defender are past.  Unfortunately for him, his three point stroke seems to be leaving him as well.  He could still be a useful spot defender, but without the one thing that made his less-then-limited offensive game bearable, after this season, his time being more than an occasional reserve playing small and sometimes non-existent minutes is done.

2.  Jermaine O’Neal, Toronto

This is O’Neal’s last shot at a comeback.  If he spends more than half of this season injured, or can’t get the strength and quickness back into his game, he’ll be finished.  The Raptors will be let down in their hope that O’Neal could revive a once-promising career, and Jermaine will never again be anything more than a longshot, if he doesn’t walk away altogether.  One thing he was always lacking is the will to comeback and play o####rant Hill.

3.  Ben Wallace, Cleveland

Wallace was never the most gifted athlete, needing to work harder than everyone else to survive.  He may still have the will, and that’s debatable, but his motor is just not there any longer.  He’s become increasingly ineffective for long stretches, and that will only get worse as he continues to age.  Without more help than Cleveland currently has, he’ll have to play a lot of minutes, and that will further expose the not one, but two steps he’s lost.  Big Ben may hang around after this season, but because he’s such a massive liability with his free throw shooting, he’ll never be more than a spot bench reserve.

4.  Shaquille O’Neal, Phoenix

This will be Shaq’s last hurrah.  He may not retire, he himself has suggested he will stay through 2010, but if there is any game left in him, he’d better show it now.  Shaq has never been one for excellent fitness, and because of his size, it’s only a matter of time before leg injuries end his playing days.  It may not be one big one, but it will always be something.  That and the fact that he is a severe liability defensively and with his free throw shooting, and his offensive game has slowed to a crawl.  It will be harder and harder for any head coach to justify keeping him on the floor.  If he has any dignity, he’ll retire after this season before he embarrasses himself.

5.  Jason Kidd, Dallas

Kidd is another player who’s defensive liabilities and lack of shooting will ultimately mean severely curtailed minutes as a reserve.  He’s slowing down, can’t even disrupt the quicker guards who are populating nearly every team in the league, and is not even a threat to take a jump shot, making it tougher on the other four guys in half court sets.  He needs to run to be effective, but he’s 35 and not that fast, and up-tempo against quicker guards further exposes him as a defender.  What Sam Cassell did for the Celtics this season is about the best Kidd can hope for in the future.  Much sooner than he thinks.

Others To Watch:  Michael Finley, San Antonio; Luke Ridnour, Milwaukee; Alonzo Mourning, Miami; Brad Miller, Sacramento; T.J. Ford, Indiana

 

Next Up:  The last installment in my preseason ramblings, Fifteen Guys Who Would Be King.

 

Continuing on with my look at the Eastern Conference, here are the leading contenders for a spot in next year’s Finals.  In reality, barring unforeseen injuries, anyone other than the top three teams coming out of the East would be a major surprise, and Cleveland is only in that group because LeBron James has proven to be exceptionally difficult to eliminate, regardless of the personnel around him.  So, here’s my top five:

5.  Philadelphia 76ers

Ever since the trade of Allen Iverson a couple years ago, the Sixers have been stockpiling young talent.  About midway through last season, that talent began to gel, leading to a fantastic second half, a spot in the playoffs and a surprising 2-1 lead on Detroit in the first round.  They came back to earth after that, getting soundly thumped in the final three games of that series, but the foundation was in place for a return to contention.  Then, this offseason, the Sixers made a major splash, adding one of the few consistent 20 and 10 guys in the league in Elton Brand.  If Brand is indeed healthy, Philadelphia is poised to make a run at home court advantage in the first round.  With a solid point guard in Andre Miller, a first rate post player in Brand, a shot-blocking force in the middle with Sam Dalembert, an explosive slasher in Andre Igoudala and young talents like Louis Williams, Willie Green and Thaddeus Young, the Sixers are in the best shape since the won the East behind A.I. and Dikembe Mutombo in 2001.  This year, I expect a win total between 50 and 55, and an excellent chance at reaching their first conference final in eight years.

4.  Orlando Magic

Wow, did Dwight Howard suck in Olympic play.  Some would say that his performance was an indication that he’s still too young to be a genuine, carry-a-team superstar.  I’m not one of those.  Remember how bad Tim Duncan looked during his Olympic experience?  All he’s done since then is win a couple of NBA Titles.  FIBA rules just don’t allow for solid interior post players to dominate as they would during NBA games.  That’s probably why big guys from Europe are more likely to play like much smaller guards rather than using their size and strength to dominate.  Howard will be even better this season than he was last year.  The addition of Mickael Pietrus will turn out to be one of the better free agent signings, and Anthony Johnson gives them an actual backup point guard instead of a masquerading two-guard like Keyon Dooling.  I still believe that Jameer Nelson’s best role would be playing about 25-30 minutes a game as a scorer off the bench with point skills, and that the Magic won’t ascend to genuine championship level until they acquire a pass-first point guard who excels in post entry passes, but with Howard dominating the paint, and versatile scorers like Hedu Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, Orlando will spend the entire season in the upper half of the East. 

3.  Cleveland Cavaliers

What is there left to say about LeBron James at this point?  About the only thing he hasn’t yet done is dominate an NBA Finals or win an MVP Award, and it seems like those accomplishments are only a matter of time.  My first reaction to the trade for Mo Williams was almost negative.  I like the addition of another guard who can actually score, and I’ve never believed that a team with a guy like LeBron really needs a pass-first point guard anyway, but I really liked the contributions Joe Smith brought to the team.  Unless 19-year-old J.J. Hickson is ready to step in right away, losing Smith leaves them a little thin up front, with Ben Wallace and Zydrunas Ilgauskas aging rapidly.  Not that Smith is a spring chicken by any means, but there’s something to be said for strength in numbers, not to mention a guy who comes off the bench, plays solid post defense, offensive rebounds and has a nice little 15-foot jumper.  I think the more pressing need was for a shooting guard better than Wally Szczerbiak, something Danny Ferry probably could have picked up at the local Wal Mart.  Still, I suspect there’s another major move coming at some point this season.  If this roster stays as is, the Cavs will be no better than fifth or sixth in the East and still a very dangerous postseason opponent likely to pull an upset or two.  I believe a move will come, another big time player comes to town and the Cavs will be even money to beat both Boston and Detroit and return to the Finals.

2.  Boston Celtics

The Celtics were a perfect storm of talent and motivation last season en route to their first title in 22 years.  They jumped out of the gate to the tune of 30-3, and held on down the stretch, taking the best record in the league by a relatively wide margin.  After some early playoff struggles, they came together to finish off Detroit and Los Angeles to finally hoist the trophy.  This season, the motivation from years of playoff failure for their big three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will be somewhat lacking.  And I think the loss of James Posey will affect them more than some people believe.  All that being said, they are still, without question, one of the best teams in the league and a repeat title is very possible.  If Rajon Rondo ever gets even an adequate jump shot, he could be one of the top point guards in the league for the next decade or so.  Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe and even Glen Davis all have the potential for significant improvement, as well.  The recent signing of Darius Miles is pretty intriguing.  Portland wrote him off with what they called a career-ending injury, but I suspect some of that had to do with his attitude and the Blazers desire to be rid of his large contract and malcontent nature.  If he can still play even close to the talent he showed a few years ago, Boston may very well repeat.  I expect a little bit of a letdown, especially early in the regular season, but an eventual record approaching 60 wins again and a solid playoff run that comes up just short this time around.

1.  Detroit Pistons

The Pistons resisted making major changes this offseason after losing their third consecutive Eastern Conference Finals, meaning that they will enter this year with basically the same club as last year.  This may be the last go-round for the veteran starting five of Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess, and anything short of another title will definitely mean the end of their time together.  Rodney Stuckey emerged late last year and in the playoffs as the obvious heir-apparent to Billups, and he will only get better this year, along with high-energy reserve Jason Maxiell.  Detroit is even taking a shot at salvaging the career of another guy with talent who hasn’t worked out anywhere else with Kwame Brown, a task they’ve excelled at in the past.  But Brown may be their toughest challenge of all.  I believe that some of the same motivators that helped the Celtics last year will work for the Pistons this year.  I expect Detroit to jump out early and end up with the best record in the East, possibly the entire league.  The Pistons major problem ever since winning the title in 2004 has been a lack of focus in the playoffs, losing games they shouldn’t have and consistently digging themselves into holes they couldn’t always climb out of.  This year, I think they keep their focus and return to the NBA Finals after a three-year absence.

So that’s how I see the Eastern Conference going into this year.  As always, there will be trades, injuries and unexpected performances, both good and bad, that will change the makeup of the conference.  But right now, this is how I see it ending up.  Next, the bottom five in the West.