On The Rise

Here are five guys who’s games are about to emerge into stardom.  Each one is in a good situation on just the right team to excel.  By the end of the season, these guys will be talked about among the better players in the league.

1.  Rodney Stuckey, Detroit

Billups-lite, Stuckey emerged in the playoffs during Chauncey’s brief absence and showed the makings o####ame ready for prime time.  His rookie season was marred by injuries early, and that may have prevented what could have been a rookie-of-the-year type season and been the reason he was such a surprise in the playoffs.  He will continue to grow into what will soon be a cornerstone role for the Pistons, taking minutes away from Billups all the while.

2.  Al Thornton, L.A. Clippers

Tall, skilled and athletic, Thornton has got to be relishing the opportunity to play in an up-tempo offense directed by Baron Davis.  Young Al, one of several University of Florida players scattered around the league who look like they might have the goods to be solid pros if not more, will be a regular on nightly highlight reels finishing what Davis starts.  Plus, playing in the same frontcourt with Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby can only give Thornton more space to operate.  He’s in a great place to succeed, and I never thought I’d say that about a guy on the Clippers.

3.  Travis Outlaw, Portland

One of Portland’s many and varied young talents, Outlaw showed stretches of his potential during last season’s surprising run at respectability.  Outlaw is tall, 6’9” at least, quick enough to drive past most defenders, and has the makings of a nice shooter with three-point range.  To me, he’s a natural scorer, and his game only lacks the maturity to not press, and improve his shot selection.  He’s got the physical tools to defend at least adequately, and coach Nate McMillan will accept nothing less.  Portland has as much talent as any team in the league, and this season, that will start to translate into success.  Outlaw will be a huge part of that.

4.  Linus Kleiza, Denver

I used to love Drazen Petrovic.  His death was one of the great tragedies, in my mind, o####uy cut down just as he was reaching stardom.  Kleiza looks to be the second coming of Petrovic.  They even look somewhat alike with similar body types, and Kleiza showed flashes of a well-rounded offensive game at times last season.  His shot was good, if a little streaky, and he showed the quickness and the handle to get to the basket when possible.  He is also aggressive and fearless, not afraid to take shots.  Defensively, Denver is going to struggle even more than usual this season, making scoring that much more important.  The wide open game means that Kleiza is going to get an opportunity to show his stuff.

5.  Luis Scola, Houston

Scola came on strong as the season wore on for the Rockets.  By the end of the year, he was even garnering some support for beating out Kevin Durant for Rookie of the Year.  Scola is a high energy player, with a nice offensive game.  He’s also physical, and not afraid to defend.  On a Houston team that was lacking scoring at times, Scola will be a solid option for points, along with newly acquired Ron Artest.  He probably won’t start, as Shane Battier gives Houston a more versatile defensive lineup, but he will get lots of minutes and be a difference maker for the Rockets.  Letting Scola go will be seen as one of the few personnel mistakes made by the San Antonio Spurs in recent memory.  Scola has a solid shot at the Sixth Man award.

Others To Watch:  Rajon Rondo, Boston; Julian Wright, New Orleans; Al Horford, Atlanta; Danny Granger, Indiana; Joakim Noah, Chicago

 

On the Decline

Here are some guys who are staring on the downslope of what have been some pretty good careers.  Each of these guys, either through circumstance or loss of skills, will be transitioning into lesser roles, some of them on other teams.

1.  Ray Allen, Boston

Allen went through most of this season’s playoffs as less than useless.  He was, at times, the only defensive liability on the floor for Boston, and his shot wasn’t just off, he wasn’t even close.  For a guy who’s supposed to be such a great pure shooter, that’s a very disturbing trend.  He’s either losing a step to age or he’s just not a good fit on the team.  I think it’s a bit of both.  In any case, he will continue to backslide and will be the first of the big three to go.

2.  Peja Stojakovic, New Orleans

Peja had a nice rejuvenation last season, and he is in a nice place to keep it going as part of Chris Paul’s show featuring lots of open threes in transition.  But, as Bruce Bowen showed in the playoffs, put an actual defender in his face, and he struggles mightily.  Plus, with the addition of James Posey, more of the late-game attempts will be heading his way because of a penchant for actually making important shots, unlike Peja.  This season will mark the beginning a fade-out for Stojakovic to a lesser role, especially if he remains with the improving Hornets. 

3.  Chauncey Billups, Detroit

This one is more situational than performance.  With the emergence of Rodney Stuckey, a player with eerily similar characteristics, Billups will see his role start to diminish.  As Stuckey improves and his minutes go up, Billups’ minutes will go down.  The past couple of seasons, Chauncey ran out of gas by playoff time, and his post season performances were up and down.  The reduced minutes will probably help him keep fresh legs in May and, hopefully for Detroit, June, but because they are such similar players at the same position, the once irreplaceable Billups will now become a redundant piece heading for a new team next year, if not sooner.

4.  Manu Ginobili, San Antonio

Ginobili is a lot like Dwayne Wade in my eyes.  For him to be effective, he has to be able to play with a near-reckless abandon, throwing his body around without regard for consequences.  He’s also 31, and he has put a lot of mileage on the engine, with the long championship NBA seasons and International play for Argentina.  Still, last year was Ginobili’s best so far before injuries finally shut him down in the playoffs.  He’ll miss at least a month to start this season after ankle surgery, maybe more, and who knows how long it will be before he’s 100%.  A repeat of last season’s success is less likely than a repeat of the injuries that doomed it for the Spurs.

5.  Lamar Odom, L.A. Lakers

Odom may still put up good numbers somewhere for a few more years to come, but if his consistency and clutch play doesn’t improve quickly for the Lakers, he’ll be the first guy out the door.  Most players would prefer to be the guy who’s skills add to a team and who’s addition would put them over the top.  But Odom’s presence may be holding the Lakers back, and his subtraction could be more valuable to them.  After both the Clippers and the Heat gave up on Odom and his great potential, a Laker team on the cusp of greatness moving him out will be the deathknell to his championship hopes.  What contender is going to want a highly-paid guy who has ultimately been a disappointment everywhere he’s gone?

Others To Watch:  Antawn Jamison, Washington; Vince Carter, New Jersey; Steve Nash, Phoenix; Marcus Camby, L.A. Clippers; Zydunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland

 

On The Way Out

Here are some guys who are on their last legs as regular players.  Some will retire, some will become deep situational reserves on good teams, if they’re lucky.  It’s also not a coincidence that four of these guys have been traded recently.  But this year will be their swan song from being big contributors. 

1.  Bruce Bowen, San Antonio

Bowen is 37 and his days as a premier defender are past.  Unfortunately for him, his three point stroke seems to be leaving him as well.  He could still be a useful spot defender, but without the one thing that made his less-then-limited offensive game bearable, after this season, his time being more than an occasional reserve playing small and sometimes non-existent minutes is done.

2.  Jermaine O’Neal, Toronto

This is O’Neal’s last shot at a comeback.  If he spends more than half of this season injured, or can’t get the strength and quickness back into his game, he’ll be finished.  The Raptors will be let down in their hope that O’Neal could revive a once-promising career, and Jermaine will never again be anything more than a longshot, if he doesn’t walk away altogether.  One thing he was always lacking is the will to comeback and play o####rant Hill.

3.  Ben Wallace, Cleveland

Wallace was never the most gifted athlete, needing to work harder than everyone else to survive.  He may still have the will, and that’s debatable, but his motor is just not there any longer.  He’s become increasingly ineffective for long stretches, and that will only get worse as he continues to age.  Without more help than Cleveland currently has, he’ll have to play a lot of minutes, and that will further expose the not one, but two steps he’s lost.  Big Ben may hang around after this season, but because he’s such a massive liability with his free throw shooting, he’ll never be more than a spot bench reserve.

4.  Shaquille O’Neal, Phoenix

This will be Shaq’s last hurrah.  He may not retire, he himself has suggested he will stay through 2010, but if there is any game left in him, he’d better show it now.  Shaq has never been one for excellent fitness, and because of his size, it’s only a matter of time before leg injuries end his playing days.  It may not be one big one, but it will always be something.  That and the fact that he is a severe liability defensively and with his free throw shooting, and his offensive game has slowed to a crawl.  It will be harder and harder for any head coach to justify keeping him on the floor.  If he has any dignity, he’ll retire after this season before he embarrasses himself.

5.  Jason Kidd, Dallas

Kidd is another player who’s defensive liabilities and lack of shooting will ultimately mean severely curtailed minutes as a reserve.  He’s slowing down, can’t even disrupt the quicker guards who are populating nearly every team in the league, and is not even a threat to take a jump shot, making it tougher on the other four guys in half court sets.  He needs to run to be effective, but he’s 35 and not that fast, and up-tempo against quicker guards further exposes him as a defender.  What Sam Cassell did for the Celtics this season is about the best Kidd can hope for in the future.  Much sooner than he thinks.

Others To Watch:  Michael Finley, San Antonio; Luke Ridnour, Milwaukee; Alonzo Mourning, Miami; Brad Miller, Sacramento; T.J. Ford, Indiana

 

Next Up:  The last installment in my preseason ramblings, Fifteen Guys Who Would Be King.

 

Continuing on with my look at the Eastern Conference, here are the leading contenders for a spot in next year’s Finals.  In reality, barring unforeseen injuries, anyone other than the top three teams coming out of the East would be a major surprise, and Cleveland is only in that group because LeBron James has proven to be exceptionally difficult to eliminate, regardless of the personnel around him.  So, here’s my top five:

5.  Philadelphia 76ers

Ever since the trade of Allen Iverson a couple years ago, the Sixers have been stockpiling young talent.  About midway through last season, that talent began to gel, leading to a fantastic second half, a spot in the playoffs and a surprising 2-1 lead on Detroit in the first round.  They came back to earth after that, getting soundly thumped in the final three games of that series, but the foundation was in place for a return to contention.  Then, this offseason, the Sixers made a major splash, adding one of the few consistent 20 and 10 guys in the league in Elton Brand.  If Brand is indeed healthy, Philadelphia is poised to make a run at home court advantage in the first round.  With a solid point guard in Andre Miller, a first rate post player in Brand, a shot-blocking force in the middle with Sam Dalembert, an explosive slasher in Andre Igoudala and young talents like Louis Williams, Willie Green and Thaddeus Young, the Sixers are in the best shape since the won the East behind A.I. and Dikembe Mutombo in 2001.  This year, I expect a win total between 50 and 55, and an excellent chance at reaching their first conference final in eight years.

4.  Orlando Magic

Wow, did Dwight Howard suck in Olympic play.  Some would say that his performance was an indication that he’s still too young to be a genuine, carry-a-team superstar.  I’m not one of those.  Remember how bad Tim Duncan looked during his Olympic experience?  All he’s done since then is win a couple of NBA Titles.  FIBA rules just don’t allow for solid interior post players to dominate as they would during NBA games.  That’s probably why big guys from Europe are more likely to play like much smaller guards rather than using their size and strength to dominate.  Howard will be even better this season than he was last year.  The addition of Mickael Pietrus will turn out to be one of the better free agent signings, and Anthony Johnson gives them an actual backup point guard instead of a masquerading two-guard like Keyon Dooling.  I still believe that Jameer Nelson’s best role would be playing about 25-30 minutes a game as a scorer off the bench with point skills, and that the Magic won’t ascend to genuine championship level until they acquire a pass-first point guard who excels in post entry passes, but with Howard dominating the paint, and versatile scorers like Hedu Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, Orlando will spend the entire season in the upper half of the East. 

3.  Cleveland Cavaliers

What is there left to say about LeBron James at this point?  About the only thing he hasn’t yet done is dominate an NBA Finals or win an MVP Award, and it seems like those accomplishments are only a matter of time.  My first reaction to the trade for Mo Williams was almost negative.  I like the addition of another guard who can actually score, and I’ve never believed that a team with a guy like LeBron really needs a pass-first point guard anyway, but I really liked the contributions Joe Smith brought to the team.  Unless 19-year-old J.J. Hickson is ready to step in right away, losing Smith leaves them a little thin up front, with Ben Wallace and Zydrunas Ilgauskas aging rapidly.  Not that Smith is a spring chicken by any means, but there’s something to be said for strength in numbers, not to mention a guy who comes off the bench, plays solid post defense, offensive rebounds and has a nice little 15-foot jumper.  I think the more pressing need was for a shooting guard better than Wally Szczerbiak, something Danny Ferry probably could have picked up at the local Wal Mart.  Still, I suspect there’s another major move coming at some point this season.  If this roster stays as is, the Cavs will be no better than fifth or sixth in the East and still a very dangerous postseason opponent likely to pull an upset or two.  I believe a move will come, another big time player comes to town and the Cavs will be even money to beat both Boston and Detroit and return to the Finals.

2.  Boston Celtics

The Celtics were a perfect storm of talent and motivation last season en route to their first title in 22 years.  They jumped out of the gate to the tune of 30-3, and held on down the stretch, taking the best record in the league by a relatively wide margin.  After some early playoff struggles, they came together to finish off Detroit and Los Angeles to finally hoist the trophy.  This season, the motivation from years of playoff failure for their big three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will be somewhat lacking.  And I think the loss of James Posey will affect them more than some people believe.  All that being said, they are still, without question, one of the best teams in the league and a repeat title is very possible.  If Rajon Rondo ever gets even an adequate jump shot, he could be one of the top point guards in the league for the next decade or so.  Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe and even Glen Davis all have the potential for significant improvement, as well.  The recent signing of Darius Miles is pretty intriguing.  Portland wrote him off with what they called a career-ending injury, but I suspect some of that had to do with his attitude and the Blazers desire to be rid of his large contract and malcontent nature.  If he can still play even close to the talent he showed a few years ago, Boston may very well repeat.  I expect a little bit of a letdown, especially early in the regular season, but an eventual record approaching 60 wins again and a solid playoff run that comes up just short this time around.

1.  Detroit Pistons

The Pistons resisted making major changes this offseason after losing their third consecutive Eastern Conference Finals, meaning that they will enter this year with basically the same club as last year.  This may be the last go-round for the veteran starting five of Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess, and anything short of another title will definitely mean the end of their time together.  Rodney Stuckey emerged late last year and in the playoffs as the obvious heir-apparent to Billups, and he will only get better this year, along with high-energy reserve Jason Maxiell.  Detroit is even taking a shot at salvaging the career of another guy with talent who hasn’t worked out anywhere else with Kwame Brown, a task they’ve excelled at in the past.  But Brown may be their toughest challenge of all.  I believe that some of the same motivators that helped the Celtics last year will work for the Pistons this year.  I expect Detroit to jump out early and end up with the best record in the East, possibly the entire league.  The Pistons major problem ever since winning the title in 2004 has been a lack of focus in the playoffs, losing games they shouldn’t have and consistently digging themselves into holes they couldn’t always climb out of.  This year, I think they keep their focus and return to the NBA Finals after a three-year absence.

So that’s how I see the Eastern Conference going into this year.  As always, there will be trades, injuries and unexpected performances, both good and bad, that will change the makeup of the conference.  But right now, this is how I see it ending up.  Next, the bottom five in the West.

Ok, it seems like the transaction wire in the NBA is starting to heat up with another couple of big moves today. The Clippers swiped Marcus Camby from Denver for a bag of magic beans, and The Hornets swiped James Posey from underneath the Celtics for a bag of greenbacks. Here's some first impressions.

I have to reserve judgment on the Nuggets until I see who the player is that the $10 million trade exception they received from the Clippers nets them. As long as they get a solid contributor who can play defense with that exception, this smells to me like one of those deals where a team sells on a player at just the right moment. Camby is 34, a 12-year vet with a long and storied history of injuries, but not so much in the past 5 years. If he manages to stay healthy and on the court, the Clips can get close to their money's worth for at least one season, but that's a big if in my mind, especially with the Clippers. Is there another franchise in all of sports who's been hit by catastrophic injuries to its best players more frequently than L.A.'s junior team? The same concern exists for Baron Davis. I expect Camby will begin the decline phase of his career, even if healthy. This is a gasp move by L.A. desperately trying to make up for the loss of Elton Brand. Still, if everyone is healthy, they could be competitive but that's a long way from the post season in the crazy-deep west.

The Hornets just jumped to the top of my list of Western Conference teams with the addition of Posey, at least until the Lakers manage to haggle a deal for Ron Artest. If New Orleans was a little more seasoned last year, they would have finished off San Antonio and put on an epic Western Conference Final with the Lakers. This is a big blow to Boston, however. There is no way, zip, zero, no chance Boston wins that title without Posey. How do they replace him now? The short answer is, they don't. Boston definitely comes back to the pack some in the East. Joe Dumars must be thrilled by this defection.

A couple of minor moves made last week that I really liked caught my attention as well. Orlando signing Mickael Pietrus away from the Warriors and San Antonio signing Roger Mason from the Wizards. The Spurs desperately need fresh legs on the bench and Mason can score in bunches, plus, if Gilbert Arenas comes back healthy, his playing time in Washington was going to be very minimal. One or two more guys like this and San Antonio's back in the hunt for the top spot in the West. I really like what Orlando's done so far this offseason. Pietrus can shoot and defend and will fit in perfectly. They also drafted Courtney Lee and just signed a nice backup point guard in Anthony Johnson, potentially a big upgrade on Keyon Dooling. The Magic are going to contend seriously this year, I'm thinking Eastern Finals at least, especially with Boston's sudden issue and who knows what Detroit will do in the next couple months? It's possible that both Rasheed Wallace and Chauncey Billups will be playing elsewhere by opening day, so the Pistons might take a step back as well. With only Philadelphia (and possibly Toronto, but I have see a Jermaine O'Neal rejuvenation before believe it) making a significant upgrade among last season's playoff teams in the East so far, Orlando may just be able to snake home court in the East.

As of right now, very early though it may be, here's what I see as next year's post-season 16. Many moves to come, however, so this will probably change dramatically. By the way, I'm completely ignoring divisions, these are just the top 8 teams in each conference in my mind at the moment.

East
1. Boston (Even without Posey, but very close to Detroit and Orlando in my mind right now)
2. Detroit (Have to temper this because I think there is at least one major trade coming)
3. Orlando (I expect they'll be higher before the season starts, barring a great trade by Detroit)
4. Washington (If Arenas is healthy, Butler is a star, Jamison can score and an improved inside game with the growth of Andray Blatche. They had a winning record last year missing Arenas for almost the entire year and Butler for 24 games)
5. Cleveland (Any team that plays defense like they can and has LeBron James is going to be in the hunt come playoff time. They move up if they manage to move Wally Szczerbiak for an actual useful shooting guard)
6. Philadelphia (Got to keep Igoudala. Lose him as a restricted free agent and their playing for the eighth spot at best. Keep him and if Brand is totally healthy and on his game, they move up, maybe way up)
7. Toronto (Jose Calderon as a full time starter is going to be near the league lead in assists and Chris Bosh is an all star. Jermaine O'Neal is the difference between moving up or mediocrity. That worked out so well for Indiana in the past)
8. Milwaukee (The top 7 are pretty certain to be in, in my mind. This spot is anyone's to grab. Taking a flyer on the Bucks right now, primarily because there are so many questions and trades yet to be made with almost everyone else right now)

West
1. New Orleans (Another year under Chris Paul's belt and Robert Horry wannabe James Posey on the floor, almost won last year, can definitely take it this year)
2. Houston (Okay, first let me say this one has an enormous if attached to it. IF everyone is healthy come playoff time, this might be the best team in the entire league, definitely the most unappreciated. But that's a gigantic, 2-ton if)
3. L.A. Lakers (For now, but its close with San Antonio, who I still think would have beaten them if Manu Ginobli had been healthy. There will be a change coming up that could bump them up to the top)
4. San Antonio (The biggest concern I have with the Spurs is how much the new flopping rule will affect them. My guess is that the flopping rule will be just like a flop on the court, all flash and little impact. If they add some more young legs, they could be up to the top)
5. Dallas (Probably a trade coming, but I would keep Josh Howard, personally. Really, all he said was that he smoked weed in the offseason, not barbecuing small children or something. Anybody think Mark Cuban doesn't?)
6. Utah (Not really the biggest Carlos Boozer fan, probably more likely to drop them then raise them at this point. Don't be completely surprised if they miss the playoffs, the west is really deep, and remember they were pretty average in the first third of last season)
7. Phoenix (Here's another team that could miss out entirely. Nash and Shaq get their AARP newsletters delivered to U.S. Airways Arena. The more I think about the trade for Shaq, the more I can't believe someone actually got paid to be that stupid. Stoudamire is good, but Nash makes him great)
8. Portland (For now. Lots of talent, could go up or out altogether. Remember, it takes two years from microfracture surgery to get all the way back, if ever. We're not going to see 100% Greg Oden this year, even if he stays on the floor. The other competitors are hit or miss, maybe Denver with another trade, maybe the Clippers if Eric Gordon is ROY and they miss the injury bug, maybe the Warriors if Monta Ellis can handle the point and they find a new leader to replace Davis because Corey Maggette may score but he's not a leader, and don't sleep on Sacramento--they could sneak up on everyone depending on the return for Ron Artest)

Converting to Euros

I was reading the NBA rumors this morning, trying to absorb all of the trade talk when I read one particular piece of news that could signal trouble brewing down the road.  Previously, I mentioned my dislike for the age limit, but I hadn't considered the financial repercussions thoroughly.  The news item was about Brazilian forward Tiago Splitter reneging on his agreement to join the San Antonio Spurs next season in favor of a four year extension with his current team, Tau Ceremica of the Euroleague, primarily because they can pay him several times what the NBA's rookie pay scale would allow.

Now consider, you're a LeBron James or a similarly gifted young American coming out of high school.  Your choices are play in the NCAA for peanuts, sit out a year and wait for the NBA (two years soon, if David Stern has his way and increases the age limit) or go play in the Euroleague right now for big bucks.  And after your initial contract with a Euroleague team is up, even if you're a star, you will still have to be restricted by the NBA rookie cap to come back home.  And that doesn't even consider that, in the Euroleague, you'll get paid in Euros, which are currently running pretty strong against the dollar.

What's to stop the best and brightest of American basketball youth from bolting overseas?  Patriotism?  And how difficult will it be to get them back in the NBA with the rookie wage scale?  How many stars will it take before Euroleague ball starts to compare favorably to the NBA in quality of play and competition?  It would be a bit ironic if David Stern's emphasis on international marketing of the game created a competitive market where the NBA would suffer, similar to what happened to the NFL in the early '80s with the USFL plucking stars, including several eventual Hall of Famers, right out of college.  The rookie wage scale could be a problem with NCAA stars, as well. 

As it is now, bolting overseas is seen as a last ditch effort by players who want to continue their careers but can't get on an NBA roster.  Most high schoolers and college players don't even consider the option.  But if it becomes more difficult to even get into the league, and can take up to five years from high school graduation to get paid what you're actually worth, that option may not stay with just fringe players.  A big-name talent, someone weighing these options, is going to open that door eventually and take the money.  And my guess is it will happen soon.  And when America's best start to spurn the NBA to go overseas, how long will it be before the international players that pepper NBA rosters today head back to their homes?  Now, the NBA is unquestionably the best league in the world, and everyone who's anyone wants to play with the best.  What happens when that designation is no longer so clear cut?

Stern would do well to carefully consider his decisions on these issues and cut it off before it becomes a possible nightmarish reality for the League, or we soon could be forced to watch late night feeds from Europe to see the best basketball in the world.

MVP: Most Valuable Player or Most Valuable Postseason?

It seems like nearly every year, the NBA's MVP voting would turn out remarkably different if it were held after the playoffs instead of after the regular season.  How many people still would have voted for Dirk Nowitzki last year after the Mavericks' historic collapse in the first round?  This year's MVP Kobe Bryant has a much stronger case after taking his team to the Finals, but, in my opinion, he wasn't a clear cut runaway with the award in the first place.  Not to say he didn't deserve it, I would have voted for him after the regular season, but why should the league's MVP award be given out before the most important and meaningful games of the season are even played?  Yes, there is the Finals MVP Award, but that discounts the performances of all of the players whose teams didn't reach the finals, a result often dictated by the relative strength of their supporting casts rather than any individual performance.

In my opinion, the MVP was a four-man race this year.  Here is how I would have voted after the regular season:

Player                             Points          Assists           Rebounds          Steals          Blocks
1.    Kobe Bryant            28.3               5.4                  6.3                        1.84            0.49      
2.    Chris Paul               21.1             11.6                 4.0                        2.71             0.05
3.    Kevin Garnett          18.8               3.4                  9.2                        1.41            1.25
4.    LeBron James       30.0                7.2                  7.9                        1.84            1.08   

Now,  after watching the playoffs, I've rearranged my thinking a bit.  I had LeBron 4th primarily because his team only won 47 games.  And Kobe beat out Chris Paul primarily because the Lakers beat out the Hornets for the top spot in the west.  And I wasn't yet a believer in the Celtics defense as the best in the league, despite 66 wins, so Garnett's efforts were downgraded a bit in my mind.

Now, it's pretty clear that both Chris Paul and LeBron James did more with less than Kobe Bryant (significantly less, in LeBron's case).  Garnett really did completely change Boston's approach, being instrumental in making them a truly excellent defensive team.  And Kobe led the way for a Laker team that handily beat the Nuggets, Jazz and Spurs on the way to the finals. 

But I suspect, had Manu Ginobli been healthy and his normal self, the Lakers might not have won that series with the Spurs.  Three of the four losses could have gone either way, despite some pretty miserable play from San Antonio, and the Spurs won the one game where Ginobli did look healthy pretty handily.  Against Boston, Kobe seemed to get worse as the series went on, as most of his teammates shrank as well, and did a disappearing act for long stretches of games 5 and 6.  Some of that was Boston's defense, but I think some of it was Kobe being too willing to launch long jumpers rather than find a way to adjust to the defense.

Chris Paul and the Hornets rolled through Dallas in the first round, and looked like they were going to do the same to San Antonio before the Spurs dug deep and fought to win the series in 7.  Their efforts against the Spurs sapped some of the juice from San Antonio's aging or ancient legs, making them further vulnerable to a much fresher Laker team that had cruised relatively untested through the first two rounds.  Paul's final assist of the playoffs was in wearing down the Spurs for the Lakers to take advantage.

I had only seen the Celtics a handful of times in the regular season, but after watching all 26 postseason games they played, it's was clearly apparent that Garnett, even though his stats weren't always fantastic, had truly reshaped what was a miserable team into a championship caliber club.  Admittedly, he clearly had the most talent around him by a pretty wide margin of any of the candidates, but talent doesn't win championships alone, the ability to merge that talent for a common goal does.  And Garnett led the way for the Celtic rejuvenation.

Unlike Kobe Bryant, LeBron James was able to adjust to the Celtics defense, going from completely baffled early in the series to completely dominant late in the series.  If it hadn't been for Paul Pierce putting up 41 in game 7 of their series with the Cavs, the Celtics wouldn't be hoisting any trophies.  And being that the Cavs beat Detroit last season, and nearly beat them the year before, it's not a stretch to suggest that LeBron could have returned to the Finals.  And with a team that plays the same kind of stifling defense that the Celtics used to beat the Lakers, who knows how that Finals matchup would have ended?  LeBron could be the one with the title surrounded by a team that would struggle to win 20 games all season without him in uniform.

So, here's how I would vote now, after watching the postseason, along with the player's post season stats:

Player                             Points          Assists          Rebounds          Steals          Blocks
1.   Kevin Garnett          20.4              3.3                 10.5                      1.35              1.12
2.   LeBron James       28.2               7.6                   7.8                      1.77              1.31
3.   Chris Paul               24.1              11.3                 4.9                       2.33              0.17
4.   Kobe Bryant            30.1               5.6                   5.7                       1.67              0.38

Any way I look at it, these four guys are all neck and neck.  I could arrange them in just about any order and it wouldn't be wrong.  So, just on gut instinct, after watching the post season, I would give it to Garnett.  It seems a little odd as he wasn't even the best player on his own team in the playoffs, but I just think his game changed the entire basis under which the Celtics play, the very essence of Most Valuable Player. 

By the way, I'm not a Kobe Hater.  I like Kobe Bryant as a player.  If anything, I think he defers his game too much.  I don't really think the Lakers roster is particularly well-suited to take full advantage of his skills.  They need big guys with heart to play physical inside, finish strong at the basket and rebound, unlike the Charmin-soft duo of Gasol and Odom.  But even liking a guy doesn't mean I'm not going to be critical if he deserves it.

Now that the Big Three have their title, and some discussions have been started about their place in history, I thought I'd compare them to one of the unquestioned best teams of all time, the last Celtics champions from 1985-86. Fortunately, I had access to a DVD collection of the 1986 NBA finals against the Houston Rockets with the twin towers of a pre-injury Ralph Sampson and a young, pre-H Akeem Olajuwon. The Celtics took that series in six as well, winning the first two at home, losing games 3 and 5 on the road before clinching in game 6 in Boston. Sound familiar?

While it can be a bit tricky to compare teams from two vastly different eras, I'm going to try anyway, mostly because I believe that, despite the increased athleticism in today's game, all of the '86 Celtics big-time players could be successful today. Here's the comparison:

Point Guard: Rajon Rondo vs. Dennis Johnson
Both guys have quick hands on defense, Rondo being more fleet afoot. Both guys rebound exceptionally well for point guards, and neither guy turns it over a lot. DJ was a much better straight up defender, had an infinitely better jumper and drove the lane for contact, trying to draw fouls and earn free throws. Rondo has the potential to be more explosive in spots, but is also much more erratic than the steady DJ.

Shooting Guard: Ray Allen vs Danny Ainge
Ray Allen is unquestionably one of the most pure shooters the league has ever seen, but outside of that, he's pretty one dimensional. Not really a good defender or passer, and he handles the ball like he's missing a left hand completely, Allen's deficiencies as an all-around player were particularly evident earlier in the playoffs when his shooting stroke fell off. Ainge was tougher, more physical (some would say dirty) and he had a pretty nice stroke of his own, although not as pure.

Center: Kendrick Perkins vs Robert Parish
This seems like a complete mismatch at first glance, but after watching the '86 finals again with Parish matched up against 7'4" Sampson, I don't think his advantage is that dominating. I suspect that the longer, lankier Parish would have a little trouble with Perkins' strength. Parish was a much better scorer, but I think Perkins, if he somehow stayed out of foul trouble, would help mitigate some of those offensive rebounds that the '86 Celtics thrived on. It's also possible Parish would spend time guarding Kevin Garnett, but probably not much. He had so much trouble handling Olajuwon's quickness that McHale was given that primary duty in the '86 Finals. Plus, whenever Sampson took his occasional jumper out to 17 feet, something Garnett does frequently, Parish was nowhere to be found to contest, and Sampson, despite being 7'4", had a pretty smooth stroke from outside.

Power Forward: Kevin Garnett vs Kevin McHale
The matchup between Garnett and his former GM in Minnesota would be an interesting one to watch. Garnett's length and quickness inside would give the slower McHale fits, and I doubt he would get out to contest the long jumpers often enough. McHale, on the other hand, had more moves than just about anybody who's ever played the game. He should be coaching big men today rather than playing GM, a position he's not performed all that well. Garnett's an excellent defender with great length, but McHale would get his points. I suspect that, because of McHale's plethora of moves and savvy, Garnett would be spending a lot of time on the bench in foul trouble.

Small Forward: Paul Pierce vs Larry Bird
One of the things I noticed in watching the '86 Finals was just how similar Paul Pierce's game in the playoffs this year was to how Larry Legend played. They both are excellent scorers, both driving to the basket and picking their spots with clutch threes. Both guys handled the ball quite a bit, and both are excellent passers, facilitating tons of good shots for teammates. Pierce is a much better straight up defender, but, without being hampered by the illegal defense rule, Bird could be a demon playing roaming defense. As it was, he was always in the passing lanes, getting his hands on balls all over the court and quick to make spot-on outlet passes for easy layups at the other end. Bird was a much more consistent shooter, he would always get his points, but there is no way he could handle Pierce's strength and quickness one on one.

The Bench
As the playoffs went on this year, it became evident that Boston's bench was exceptionally deep and talented. James Posey, P.J. Brown, Sam Cassell, Eddie House, Leon Powe, Big Baby Davis and Tony Allen all had their moments in Doc Rivers' ever-changing bench rotation. The '86 Celtics, however were a little different. After a rejuvenated Bill Walton, the league's Sixth Man Award winner that year, their bench was pretty thin. Of course, with that starting five, how much of a bench do you really need? They had Greg Kite, who played decent minutes at backup center, Scott Wedman at backup point guard (he was hurt in the playoffs, though) and Jerry Sichting as another backup guard and that's about it. Pretty thin, indeed.

Overall
The 2008 Celtics are a far superior defensive team while the 1986 Celtics were the far superior offensive team. If the '86 version could play zone, it might get a little closer defensively, but the '08 version is much quicker and more athletic. That being said, I have a hard time imagining Larry Bird in his prime struggling to make adjustments to the defense and find points the way Kobe Bryant did this year, and Kevin McHale would definitely get his. Dennis Johnson would pretty clearly outplay Rondo and the '86 Celtic interior defense would cut down dramatically on the relatively easy layups that Pierce and Allen were getting all series long against the Lakers. I think the depth of the '08 version would cause problems for the '86 Celtics, but I'm just not sure the modern Celtics would be able to score enough points over a long series. I think it would be close, though. I'd pick the '86 Celtics to win the series in seven games, but it would be a tough, close, hard-fought series all the way.

I haven't written one of these in quite a while, since taking part in the sportswriter contest a couple of years back. But lately, I've been watching a lot of NBA playoff games and I got the itch to put some of my thoughts down. I'll probably do a lot of these now, because I have a lot of thoughts. Just a short one today.
I really enjoyed watching Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and the Celtics take the title, they deserve it. (Ray Allen not so much. Never was a big fan even though he is a great pure shooter). I've always liked Pierce, even back at Kansas and I remember thinking Boston got a steal with him at number 10 in the draft in 1998. Looking back now, there's no one else in that first round, before or after Pierce, who I would even consider taking over him, with the possible exception of Dirk Nowitzki if I had a team that needed his size and scoring ability, but only if I already had great player at Pierce's position already on the roster. And that's only knowing what kind of player Dirk is now. In 1998, only the UNC pair of Vince Carter and Antwan Jamison would even have been in the discussion, and there's no way I would take either of those guys over Pierce now. Wouldn't have then, either. Maybe Jamison, but probably not.
Just a side note, does anyone else think David Stern's insistence on an age limit rings particularly idiotic now considering that 4 of the 5 guys on the all NBA 1st team this year came straight out of high school (Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard and Lebron James) and the fifth guy, Chris Paul, only played two years at Wake Forest? And five of the ten guys on the 2nd and 3rd teams never played a game of college ball either. In fact, only Tim Duncan and Steve Nash (both 2nd Team) played all four years in college. Even more, the league MVP (Bryant), Defensive Player of the Year (Garnett), Sixth Man Award winner (Ginobili) and Most Improved Player (Hedo Turkoglu) never played in college either. For going to college being so important to the NBA, the list of the league's best sure are littered with guys, both American and European, who skipped it to go straight to the pro's.
If Stern were just straight up about it and told the truth, that the age limit isn't about anything other than money, I'd have a little more respect for him. It's hard to have less, actually. In reality, the typically high school to the pros player takes three or four years to truly contribute to their potential and by that point, they're a free agent. There's no other reason for the rule at all except to allow the teams that draft guys a longer period of high quality basketball before free agency rather than a year or two of preparation. But it looks to me like spending those years playing pro ball, even on an NBA bench, is actually better preparation for future performance than going to college, but, hey, in Stern's NBA, its all about the money, not about player development.
Anyway, congrats to the Celtics, condolences to the Lakers and I'll write more when I get the chance.