10.  Toronto Raptors

Toronto is a trendy pick to move up in the East after trading for Jermaine O’Neal, but I just can’t bring myself to believe that he’ll stay on the floor all season, or be the kind of player he was five or six years ago.  That being said, the Raptors were just 41-41 last season.  They might actually have a better record this year and still miss the playoffs.  I like the move to clear out T.J. Ford and hand the full time point guard reins to Jose Calderon.  I expect him to end up in the top five in the league in assists, averaging double figures.  This team’s main drawback is a total lack of interior strength.  Their best big guys, Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani and O’Neal, all play small, and that will kill them in the end.  Still, they should be in playoff contention, coming up just short.

9.  Milwaukee Bucks    

I liked the Bucks chances better before they traded Mo Williams.  They did land Luke Ridnour in the deal, but he has been nothing short of miserable the past couple of years playing on really bad Seattle teams.  If he can regain some of the form he showed a few years ago when Seattle reached the second round of the playoffs, the Bucks will have an excellent shot of landing a playoff spot, and possibly making some noise when they get there.  With Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd, Charlie Villanueva, Andrew Bogut and explosive rookie Joe Alexander, he’ll have plenty of chances for assists, but a rejuvenation is far from secure.  If he can’t get it back together, Milwaukee will be in major trouble at the point, and that will cost them a chance at postseason play.  I’m guessing Ridnour will be solid yet unspectacular and the Bucks will miss the postseason by a hair, possibly going down to the final day of the season.

8.  Atlanta Hawks      

After years of futility, the Hawks finally broke through and nearly pulled the greatest upset in NBA playoff history, taking a Celtics team that was almost 30 games ahead of them in to standings to a game seven.  Just having Mike Bibby on the floor for a full season should be enough to get them over .500.  And it’s a distinct possibility that Marvin Williams will blossom now that Josh Childress is playing in Greece, Al Horford will take a step up into All Star territory and Josh Smith will move into superstar range.  And that’s not even mentioning Joe Johnson, who is still Atlanta’s best player.  Depth is the main concern, I think.  An injury or two that causes key players to miss significant time will derail the entire season.  My guess is they will be better right out of the gate this year, and two of the three key young guys will step up their games, crashing the post season for the second year in a row.  The short bench will be their downfall, however.  The Hawks are a year and a few shrewd personnel moves away from legitimate contention.

7.  Washington Wizards      

This is kind of a difficult team to figure.  They may have been better off letting Gilbert Arenas walk and spending that money elsewhere, but they gave him an enormous contract despite missing nearly the entire season with an injury, and the team performing very well without him.  Caron Butler, if he can stay away from the injuries that have hurt him throughout his career, looks to be a guy blossoming into a genuine star, and with Brendan Haywood looking like an actual player for the first time in his career and young big guy Andray Blatche looking as though he has a nice upside, the Wizards won’t be just the same old run and gun team.  Look for some of the toughness they displayed in the Cleveland series to carry over into this year, and winning home court advantage in the first round is a possibility.  But I expect they will again have some injury issues that will cost them a few games, and Agent Zero’s new contract will look even worse by the end of the season.  They’ll probably just be happy if they don’t have to face LeBron James and the Cavs in the first round again.

6.  Chicago Bulls       

This is the team I think will move up the most in the East.  Remember, just two seasons ago, Chicago swept the defending champions in the first round, before last season’s catastrophe, led by a disgruntled and massively overrated Ben Gordon.  From all reports, Gordon is done as a Bull, and to me, that is definite addition by subtraction.  It would have been an enormous mistake to pay him $10 million per year.  Chicago is much better off giving the bigger and more defense-minded Thabo Sefolosha more minutes than dealing with the streaky, much-too-small, defenseless Gordon any longer.  The main reason I think the Bulls will move into the playoffs is that I don’t think their roster is done.  I suspect there may be a major move coming up sometime this season.  The Bulls still have an abundance of pieces to package together, and their inability to put together deals for Pau Gasol, Kevin Garnett or any other quality player over the past few seasons has held this team back.  This year, I believe they get it done.  With the right deal, they could move up even higher.  I expect a slow start as Derrick Rose learns the pro game, but a strong finish, and a reconstituted team that could possibly pull a major upset come playoff time.

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