On The Rise

Here are five guys who’s games are about to emerge into stardom.  Each one is in a good situation on just the right team to excel.  By the end of the season, these guys will be talked about among the better players in the league.

1.  Rodney Stuckey, Detroit

Billups-lite, Stuckey emerged in the playoffs during Chauncey’s brief absence and showed the makings o####ame ready for prime time.  His rookie season was marred by injuries early, and that may have prevented what could have been a rookie-of-the-year type season and been the reason he was such a surprise in the playoffs.  He will continue to grow into what will soon be a cornerstone role for the Pistons, taking minutes away from Billups all the while.

2.  Al Thornton, L.A. Clippers

Tall, skilled and athletic, Thornton has got to be relishing the opportunity to play in an up-tempo offense directed by Baron Davis.  Young Al, one of several University of Florida players scattered around the league who look like they might have the goods to be solid pros if not more, will be a regular on nightly highlight reels finishing what Davis starts.  Plus, playing in the same frontcourt with Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby can only give Thornton more space to operate.  He’s in a great place to succeed, and I never thought I’d say that about a guy on the Clippers.

3.  Travis Outlaw, Portland

One of Portland’s many and varied young talents, Outlaw showed stretches of his potential during last season’s surprising run at respectability.  Outlaw is tall, 6’9” at least, quick enough to drive past most defenders, and has the makings of a nice shooter with three-point range.  To me, he’s a natural scorer, and his game only lacks the maturity to not press, and improve his shot selection.  He’s got the physical tools to defend at least adequately, and coach Nate McMillan will accept nothing less.  Portland has as much talent as any team in the league, and this season, that will start to translate into success.  Outlaw will be a huge part of that.

4.  Linus Kleiza, Denver

I used to love Drazen Petrovic.  His death was one of the great tragedies, in my mind, o####uy cut down just as he was reaching stardom.  Kleiza looks to be the second coming of Petrovic.  They even look somewhat alike with similar body types, and Kleiza showed flashes of a well-rounded offensive game at times last season.  His shot was good, if a little streaky, and he showed the quickness and the handle to get to the basket when possible.  He is also aggressive and fearless, not afraid to take shots.  Defensively, Denver is going to struggle even more than usual this season, making scoring that much more important.  The wide open game means that Kleiza is going to get an opportunity to show his stuff.

5.  Luis Scola, Houston

Scola came on strong as the season wore on for the Rockets.  By the end of the year, he was even garnering some support for beating out Kevin Durant for Rookie of the Year.  Scola is a high energy player, with a nice offensive game.  He’s also physical, and not afraid to defend.  On a Houston team that was lacking scoring at times, Scola will be a solid option for points, along with newly acquired Ron Artest.  He probably won’t start, as Shane Battier gives Houston a more versatile defensive lineup, but he will get lots of minutes and be a difference maker for the Rockets.  Letting Scola go will be seen as one of the few personnel mistakes made by the San Antonio Spurs in recent memory.  Scola has a solid shot at the Sixth Man award.

Others To Watch:  Rajon Rondo, Boston; Julian Wright, New Orleans; Al Horford, Atlanta; Danny Granger, Indiana; Joakim Noah, Chicago

 

On the Decline

Here are some guys who are staring on the downslope of what have been some pretty good careers.  Each of these guys, either through circumstance or loss of skills, will be transitioning into lesser roles, some of them on other teams.

1.  Ray Allen, Boston

Allen went through most of this season’s playoffs as less than useless.  He was, at times, the only defensive liability on the floor for Boston, and his shot wasn’t just off, he wasn’t even close.  For a guy who’s supposed to be such a great pure shooter, that’s a very disturbing trend.  He’s either losing a step to age or he’s just not a good fit on the team.  I think it’s a bit of both.  In any case, he will continue to backslide and will be the first of the big three to go.

2.  Peja Stojakovic, New Orleans

Peja had a nice rejuvenation last season, and he is in a nice place to keep it going as part of Chris Paul’s show featuring lots of open threes in transition.  But, as Bruce Bowen showed in the playoffs, put an actual defender in his face, and he struggles mightily.  Plus, with the addition of James Posey, more of the late-game attempts will be heading his way because of a penchant for actually making important shots, unlike Peja.  This season will mark the beginning a fade-out for Stojakovic to a lesser role, especially if he remains with the improving Hornets. 

3.  Chauncey Billups, Detroit

This one is more situational than performance.  With the emergence of Rodney Stuckey, a player with eerily similar characteristics, Billups will see his role start to diminish.  As Stuckey improves and his minutes go up, Billups’ minutes will go down.  The past couple of seasons, Chauncey ran out of gas by playoff time, and his post season performances were up and down.  The reduced minutes will probably help him keep fresh legs in May and, hopefully for Detroit, June, but because they are such similar players at the same position, the once irreplaceable Billups will now become a redundant piece heading for a new team next year, if not sooner.

4.  Manu Ginobili, San Antonio

Ginobili is a lot like Dwayne Wade in my eyes.  For him to be effective, he has to be able to play with a near-reckless abandon, throwing his body around without regard for consequences.  He’s also 31, and he has put a lot of mileage on the engine, with the long championship NBA seasons and International play for Argentina.  Still, last year was Ginobili’s best so far before injuries finally shut him down in the playoffs.  He’ll miss at least a month to start this season after ankle surgery, maybe more, and who knows how long it will be before he’s 100%.  A repeat of last season’s success is less likely than a repeat of the injuries that doomed it for the Spurs.

5.  Lamar Odom, L.A. Lakers

Odom may still put up good numbers somewhere for a few more years to come, but if his consistency and clutch play doesn’t improve quickly for the Lakers, he’ll be the first guy out the door.  Most players would prefer to be the guy who’s skills add to a team and who’s addition would put them over the top.  But Odom’s presence may be holding the Lakers back, and his subtraction could be more valuable to them.  After both the Clippers and the Heat gave up on Odom and his great potential, a Laker team on the cusp of greatness moving him out will be the deathknell to his championship hopes.  What contender is going to want a highly-paid guy who has ultimately been a disappointment everywhere he’s gone?

Others To Watch:  Antawn Jamison, Washington; Vince Carter, New Jersey; Steve Nash, Phoenix; Marcus Camby, L.A. Clippers; Zydunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland

 

On The Way Out

Here are some guys who are on their last legs as regular players.  Some will retire, some will become deep situational reserves on good teams, if they’re lucky.  It’s also not a coincidence that four of these guys have been traded recently.  But this year will be their swan song from being big contributors. 

1.  Bruce Bowen, San Antonio

Bowen is 37 and his days as a premier defender are past.  Unfortunately for him, his three point stroke seems to be leaving him as well.  He could still be a useful spot defender, but without the one thing that made his less-then-limited offensive game bearable, after this season, his time being more than an occasional reserve playing small and sometimes non-existent minutes is done.

2.  Jermaine O’Neal, Toronto

This is O’Neal’s last shot at a comeback.  If he spends more than half of this season injured, or can’t get the strength and quickness back into his game, he’ll be finished.  The Raptors will be let down in their hope that O’Neal could revive a once-promising career, and Jermaine will never again be anything more than a longshot, if he doesn’t walk away altogether.  One thing he was always lacking is the will to comeback and play o####rant Hill.

3.  Ben Wallace, Cleveland

Wallace was never the most gifted athlete, needing to work harder than everyone else to survive.  He may still have the will, and that’s debatable, but his motor is just not there any longer.  He’s become increasingly ineffective for long stretches, and that will only get worse as he continues to age.  Without more help than Cleveland currently has, he’ll have to play a lot of minutes, and that will further expose the not one, but two steps he’s lost.  Big Ben may hang around after this season, but because he’s such a massive liability with his free throw shooting, he’ll never be more than a spot bench reserve.

4.  Shaquille O’Neal, Phoenix

This will be Shaq’s last hurrah.  He may not retire, he himself has suggested he will stay through 2010, but if there is any game left in him, he’d better show it now.  Shaq has never been one for excellent fitness, and because of his size, it’s only a matter of time before leg injuries end his playing days.  It may not be one big one, but it will always be something.  That and the fact that he is a severe liability defensively and with his free throw shooting, and his offensive game has slowed to a crawl.  It will be harder and harder for any head coach to justify keeping him on the floor.  If he has any dignity, he’ll retire after this season before he embarrasses himself.

5.  Jason Kidd, Dallas

Kidd is another player who’s defensive liabilities and lack of shooting will ultimately mean severely curtailed minutes as a reserve.  He’s slowing down, can’t even disrupt the quicker guards who are populating nearly every team in the league, and is not even a threat to take a jump shot, making it tougher on the other four guys in half court sets.  He needs to run to be effective, but he’s 35 and not that fast, and up-tempo against quicker guards further exposes him as a defender.  What Sam Cassell did for the Celtics this season is about the best Kidd can hope for in the future.  Much sooner than he thinks.

Others To Watch:  Michael Finley, San Antonio; Luke Ridnour, Milwaukee; Alonzo Mourning, Miami; Brad Miller, Sacramento; T.J. Ford, Indiana

 

Next Up:  The last installment in my preseason ramblings, Fifteen Guys Who Would Be King.

 

My initial reaction to this year’s draft was that there weren’t a lot of high impact players out there.  Upon reflection, it will probably be better than I had first anticipated, but this is still far from the great draft of 2003.  The rookie class is made a little better by the addition of guys like Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Marc Gasol and a handful of other players who had been drafted in the past and only now are getting their chance.  Projecting this kind of thing can be especially problematic because a lot of rookie performance has to do with opportunity.  A relative unknown on a lousy team will get more minutes, and therefore put up bigger numbers, than a more-talented guy on a good team.  But I’ll dive in anyway.  Here are the rookies I think will make the biggest impact this season:

1.  O.J. Mayo, Memphis

The real deal.  He’ll make Memphis his team early on.  The only question is will it go to his head.  The rise of a superstar.

2.  Greg Oden, Portland

Defense and rebounding force for the massively talented Blazers.  He’ll be even better next year, but still the anchor in the middle for a solid playoff team.

3.  Derrick Rose, Chicago

By the end of the season, Rose will have adjusted to the NBA game and we’ll see how good he can be running a team with an array of talent around him.

4.  Eric Gordon, L.A. Clippers

Will score in bunches for the newly reconstituted Clippers, helping them get back into playoff contention.

5.  Michael Beasley, Miami

He’ll be solid, but will struggle at times.  With little depth or useful big guys on the Heat, Beasley may end up shooting too many jumpers to keep from getting pounded on inside.  Fortunately, he’s a respectable shooter.

6.  Chris Douglas-Roberts, New Jersey

The Nets have few scorers, and he’ll get a chance to play lots of minutes, and put up solid numbers on what will be a bad team.

7.  Brandon Rush, Indiana

Could earn solid minutes for the Pacers, but fly a little under the radar because they are the Pacers.  If he played for the Lakers or the Knicks, he could be one of the favorites.

8.  Rudy Fernandez, Portland

Aggressive, athletic and impressive range all add up to another explosive component to Portland’s future.  Like they needed one.

9.  Marc Gasol, Memphis

Is this actually a real center from Europe instead of a seven footer who would rather play guard?  Gasol is big and strong and surprisingly nimble if he keeps away from the buffet.

10.  Kevin Love, Minnesota

He’ll be pretty good playing opposite Al Jefferson, but it will take a season or so before he’s truly NBA ready.

Others To Watch:  Joe Alexander, Milwaukee; Darrell Arthur, Memphis; Brook Lopez, New Jersey; Courtney Lee, Orlando; Mario Chalmers, Miami; Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City

 

Next Up: Who’s Up, Down and Headed Out

Coming to the end of my look at all of the teams in the NBA this season, here are five of the top six or seven teams in the league.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these clubs finish first overall, and this group could end up in just about any combination, 1 through 5.  So here are the top competitors to represent the West in the NBA Finals.

5.  San Antonio Spurs

Last season, the Spurs started to show their age for the first time, getting worn down against Phoenix and then New Orleans before succumbing to the Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.  Still, they handled the Suns with relative ease and managed to climb back to beat the Hornets.  They were even a healthy Manu Ginobili away from having a nice shot at toppling L.A.  But Manu wasn’t healthy, and he’s managed to make matters worse by playing Internationally during the off season and further worsening his bum ankle.  It’s difficult to tell how much time he’ll miss to start the season, probably no less than a month, and no guarantee he’ll be back at 100 percent at any point this year.  Like Golden State with Monta Ellis, much of this season’s hopes rest on how successfully Ginobili returns.  The Spurs obviously needed to get younger this off season, but have failed miserably.  European star Tiago Splitter turned down their offer to come to the league, and draft pick James Gist also chose Europe over signing in San Antonio.  About all they did do was sign extraneous guard Roger Mason away from the Wizards.  Mason has possibilities, and he did show nice shooting range and scoring ability during his time last season in place of the Washington’s numerous injured stars, but he’s far from a sure thing.  One guy they can count on is Tony Parker, who is now coming into his prime.  I expect Parker will be among the top players in the league this season, taking up some of the slack left by Ginobili, and they do still have Tim Duncan.  The Spurs could get it all together and win again, but I think age further catches up with them, they slip a bit in the standings and a first round exit is a real possibility.

4.  Utah Jazz

After going years with only a handful of top notch point guards, it seems like we’re at the beginning of a resurgence in the league at that position, and Deron Williams is at the forefront.  After his first three years in the league, Williams is behind only Chris Paul and possibly Tony Parker in the point guard hierarchy, and you can make a case that he may be the best.  Utah is one of the youngest teams in the league, and they have already won three playoff series and reached a conference final.  They’re only going to get better.  The addition of Kyle Korver last season added the final piece to making the Jazz a genuine threat in the West with his consistently good three point shooting.  Andrei Kirilenko is a head case, but he played much better last season than the year before, and was very good in the Olympics.  With an array of young players improving almost by the day like Ronnie Brewer, Paul Millsapp and possibly high school draftee C.J. Miles, Utah is definitely on the rise.  Carlos Boozer, in my mind, is their one drawback.  He was so ineffective in the Olympics that his own college coach kept him parked deep on the bench in what few important minutes there were for Team USA.  I said earlier about Dwight Howard that FIBA basketball is not a good showcase for interior post players, and Boozer definitely suffered from that, but he was also far less than stellar during their playoff run last season.  I don’t think the Jazz will be a genuine threat for a title until they find a true heir apparent to Karl Malone in Jerry Sloan’s system, which means, I think either a trade of Boozer should he continue to struggle in key spots, or more likely, the Jazz let him walk as a free agent, allowing someone like The Heat to pay him big money for small clutch results.  I’d say the Jazz are once again one of the best in the league at home, and this year, they avoid the early season lull like last year.  They flirt with the top seed, but end up with home court in the first round and a fighter’s chance at another conference final.

3.  Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are nearly everyone’s pick to hold on to the top spot in the West and take this year’s title.  They’re not mine.  They will, without question, have one of the best half a dozen records in the entire league, and be a significant factor in the postseason, but I still believe they are a flawed team in all the wrong places to be a true champion.  Just looking at their finish last season, only two wins away from a title, makes Los Angeles appear closer to championship form than they really are.  First, losing in six games made the Finals look like they were competitive.  In reality, the Celtics were clearly far superior to the team L.A. put on the floor.  And if it weren’t for Manu Ginobili’s balky ankle, they might not have even gotten that far.  Kobe Bryant successfully defended his reputation as the best player in the league, a title I think he’ll struggle to hold on to for much longer.  As great as he is, Bryant still has a tendency to fade away at times when he’s on the floor, especially defensively, and to shut out nearly everyone else when he looks to score.  Andrew Bynum, by all reports, is healthy.  His return to the upward track he set out on last year will be essential to any hopes of a repeat in the West, a whole lot of pressure on a 20-year-old who Kobe himself wanted dumped this time last year.  How well Pau Gasol blends with an actual post-up center is another key.  Gasol would do well to take some lessons from his brother about aggressiveness and play in the paint.  If he ends up shooting too many jumpers, he’ll lose a lot of the value he brought after the trade last year, no matter how well Bynum plays.  And there is just no excuse for Lamar Odom still being on this team.  For the Lakers to step up, their defense has to get much, much better and that’s going to take more than just the return of an inexperienced 20-year-old.  Still, there is lots of talent here, and size, although in height only that doesn’t necessarily translate into physical play.  The Lakers will overwhelm a lot of teams and they’ll be at or near the top all season, but unless a trade is made, their defensive shortcomings will lead to a shorter post season run than last year.

2.  New Orleans Hornets

Chris Paul is the guy I think will be the league’s MVP this season.  In just three years, he’s brought the Hornets back from irrelevancy to a contender status that they’ve never really known, either in New Orleans, Oklahoma City or Charlotte.  He’s made David West an All Star, helped Tyson Chandler actually perform near his talent level, and brought on an unexpected rejuvenation for Peja Stojakovic.  There can be little doubt that the presence of Paul on the floor makes everyone else better.  And now they have the physical defensive capabilities of James Posey, along with his proven clutch three point shooting.  I also look for young Julian Wright to keep growing into a force, helped along by the leadership of Paul.  The bench is a little suspect, but nothing that a couple of shrewd in-season pickups won’t fix.  P.J. Brown didn’t join the Celtics until almost March last year, and look how valuable he ended up being.  Look for New Orleans to be right in the hunt all season, and be a very difficult team to get past.  A run to the Finals is a definite possibility.  To me, Chris Paul seems as if he’s one of those players like Michael Jordan or LeBron James.  They absorb experience, learn from it, and don’t repeat it often.  Lose in the semifinals one year, and you can almost guarantee a trip beyond that point the next.  I suspect Paul learned a big lesson in watching the Spurs come from behind to beat them and advance.  We’ll see what comes of that schooling this year.

1.  Houston Rockets

Not the most popular or respected pick, but after thorough consideration, I’m sticking with the Rockets as my choice to not only rise to the top of the West, but to win the title.  Basically, it came down to one thing.  The Lakers were unable to add a player like Ron Artest or even James Posey, and the Rockets and Hornets did.  If the Lakers had made the trade for Artest, and Houston didn’t exactly give up the farm to get him, they would be in this spot.  It’s not that Artest himself is such a difference maker, it’s that he brings a package of skills that tends to put good teams over the top.  Like a handful of other teams, injuries or the lack thereof, will largely rule the day.  Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming don’t necessarily need to play all 82 games for the Rockets to be successful, they just need to be reasonably healthy at the end of the season and into the playoffs.  Rafer Alston showed a growth and maturity in his game last season that I never thought would come, but he is 32 and also at risk for injury, and the lack of a quality backup would make his loss a damaging blow as evidenced by the first round series against Utah.  Artest will only add to an already solid Houston defense.  Flashy offense is what always get the headlines, but defense is still what wins championships.  And now, Houston has more scoring with Artest and a more-NBA-acclimated Luis Scola who, if he’s not starting, will be an early front-runner for Best Sixth Man.  I think they’ll start well, stay reasonably healthy, be ready come playoff time and all the talk of McGrady not being able to get out of the first round will be forgotten, just like it was for Kevin Garnett.  Houston beats Detroit in six games.

Next up:  A look at the top rookies

Continuing on with the West, here are teams 6 through 10.  All five of these teams have the elements to be pretty good.  There are two veteran teams, two young teams, and one kinda in between.  Because the West is so strong, and each one of these teams is flawed in some way, nearly every one of them could make it into the conference’s top four or miss the playoffs altogether.

10.  Golden State Warriors

The injury to Monta Ellis keeps them down a little.  He’ll miss at least the first month of the season, maybe more, and who knows how long it will be before his injury is completely healed.  Ankle injuries tend to linger in the NBA, especially on a player who relies on quickness like Ellis.  They can only hope that it’s not an injury he’s plagued with all season.  Can Marcus Williams hold down the fort or will Chris Mullin make a trade, and will it be a good one?  The answers to those questions will largely determine whether the Warriors are in or out of the playoff picture.  Lacking Ellis’ offense, more pressure will be on Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette, but I suspect they’re both up to it.  Maggette will enjoy being unleashed in Don Nelson’s system, and I’ve always thought that Jackson might be the most underrated player in the entire league.  I expect Brandon Wright to improve across the board, as well.  I think they’ll tread water waiting for Ellis to get back to full strength, but fall just a little too far off the pace, and behind too many quality teams, to catch up.

9.  Los Angeles Clippers

Much like Houston, who I’ll discuss in the next section, a lot of what eventually happens during the Clippers’ season will depend on the number of games the key players accumulate on injured reserve.  Newcomers Baron Davis and Marcus Camby have long histories of injuries, yet both guys avoided such a fate last season.  L.A.’s other team has to hope that’s the start of a positive trend for them both.  If the duo plays at least 80 games each, I believe the Clippers will make the playoffs.  The frontline of Camby, Chris Kaman and superstar-to-be Al Thornton could be one of the best in the league.  If his minutes are kept down and his knees hold up, newly signed Jason Williams could actually be an effective backup for Davis.  Eric Gordon is a guy that I have a feeling will be talked about among the best rookies in the league by the end of the year.  But they are the Clippers.  Injuries will happen, if not to Camby or Davis, then it will be Kaman or Thornton.  L.A. will get close, probably after a good start, and fade just a little too far at the end.

8.  Phoenix Suns

The next two teams are basically interchangeable.  Phoenix and Dallas are linked in my mind in more ways than just their common employee Steve Nash.  They played similar up tempo styles, then have tried to transition to a slower pace, sometimes successfully as with the Mavericks a couple years ago, not so much with the Suns thus far.  Phoenix has a lot of talent, some of it young and improving.  If Shaquille O’Neal manages to stay on the floor consistently throughout the year, an enormous if, Amare Stoudemire could have a huge year freed up from the restrictions of playing center.  Boris Diaw has all the tools to be a stat stuffer in a number of categories, playing like a point guard from the post.  And Leandro Barbosa can score in bunches.  But they’re just too dependent on guys like Shaq, Grant Hill and especially Steve Nash, who are long in the tooth, to say the least.  Nash could have some troubles adapting to the change in style, and he did struggle with it after the Shaq trade and the playoff embarrassment against San Antonio.  Or he could miss time with injuries, always a possibility with his style of play at his age.  If either possibility turns into a prolonged problem, Phoenix will be in trouble.  They can compensate for lost time from almost anyone else, but if Nash goes down, the Suns will set before the playoffs even begin this season.  I think they’ll play very well in spots, but age, and games missed due to injury, will creep up on them.  Still, I think they’ll barely hold on to a playoff spot, and get to enjoy one last postseason stint, however brief, before this team will need a bit of a makeover.

7.  Dallas Mavericks

Falling apart against Golden State in the playoffs two years ago began a downward trend for this franchise.  They won 16 fewer games last season than the year before, and went out in the first round of the playoffs for the second straight time.  When Avery Johnson took over for Don Nelson, I thought that he was the perfect coach to take this group over the top, and things looked great right up until the collapse in game three of the Finals three years ago.  The next year, they looked poised to make up for that loss, but again were beaten.  Last year turned out to be a lost season, both in terms of wins and respect for Johnson as a coach.  He has clearly been outcoached by Pat Riley, Don Nelson and Byron Scott in consecutive postseason series, exposing his weaknesses for strategy and making adjustments.  Rick Carlisle can’t help but improve those flaws.  Unfortunately, this team has much more age under their belt than the one who almost took the title in 2006.  Jason Kidd is on his last legs, Dirk Nowitzki is on the wrong side of 30, and guys like Eddie Jones and Jerry Stackhouse aren’t finding the fountain of youth any time soon.  Still, they won 51 games last season, only six fewer than the number one seeded Lakers.  They still have Jason Terry and Josh Howard (flaws and all), they might have found something in Brandon Bass and 23-year-old Gerald Green will be given an opportunity to contribute to a team with some actual talent for a change.  Carlisle will put more emphasis on physical play and getting to the basket, and the return of DeSagana Diop sits Erick Dampier back where he belongs, moderate minutes as a backup center.  Dirk can excel playing this way, as evidenced by his MVP campaign two years ago.  He has the capability to drive, finish and make a very high percentage of a lot of free throws.  If he gets into the high 20’s or closer to 30 points per game, this team may be able to make a run.  They probably are too old and emotionally fragile to expect a trip back to the Finals, but they are fully capable of making some noise and being a much more difficult out than they have been the past two years.

6.  Portland Trailblazers

This is the new “It” team in the NBA.  Nearly everyone thinks Portland is headed for serious championship contention, if not Dynasty status.  I was a bit skeptical at first, but there is just too much talent here for them to fail.  Still, they are exceptionally young and more experience is needed before they can reasonably be expected to be title contenders.  If Greg Oden is anywhere near the player people expect, this season will mark the beginning a long streak of playoff appearances for the Blazers.  Brandon Roy could be headed for eventual All-NBA status, and the guy I’m most interested in is Travis Outlaw.  With good range on an improving jumpshot, a willingness to attack the basket with a variety of moves, and exceptional athleticism for a guy 6’9”, the ceiling for Outlaw could be as high as anyone on the team, and that’s saying something.  If Rudy Fernandez brings the shooting range and fearlessness he showed off during the Olympics, watch out.  But their youth will eventually do them in.  Oden, Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless are rookies; Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge have two season under their belts, Martell Webster and Channing Frye have played three seasons and Travis Outlaw is just now earning big minutes at age 23 after being drafted right out of high school.  No team made up of predominantly young players goes from the Lottery to the title without paying their dues, and with the West being so loaded, this season will be a learning experience for Portland.  Everyone else in the Conference who has designs on a championship had better take advantage now, because by the spring of 2010, the Blazers just might be the best team in the league.

Next Up:  The West’s Elite

Now that I’ve gone through the Eastern Conference, It’s time for the superior West.  Last season, the Western Conference was unbelievably strong, likely the most competitive array of teams one through ten in the history of the league.  This year, the top clubs are somewhat improved, but it’s probably not going to end up with the same clustered playoff picture where a team could go from out of the playoffs to 1st or vice versa in a matter of a just a couple of weeks.  Here are my opinions on the bottom third:

15.  Oklahoma City Thundercats

Okay, so that’s not really the name, but outside of Oklahoma, does anyone really care what they call this less-than-mediocre group?  Personally, I like my suggestion.  Imagine, Oklahoma City inbounding the ball and, as they bring it up the court, the PA announcer gets the crowd fired up with a chant of, “Thunder...Thunder...Thunder...Thundercats, ####!”  And I think that old Thundercats logo would look great on a jersey.  If Toronto can name a team after a cheesy dinosaur movie, then why not an old cartoon?  Their nickname notwithstanding, it’s going to take sight beyond sight to envision a time when this team is actually competitive.  This is the worst team in the league, hands down.  Kevin Durant may one day be a superstar, but not before he gets some actual talent around him.  If, by some freak chance, guys like Robert Swift, Chris Wilcox and Desmond Mason start suddenly playing up to their potential, they might be able to approach 30 wins.  Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook are the only other guys on the roster with any real upside, but it’s going to be at least a couple of years before that happens, if ever.  Oklahoma City might be thrilled to have a permanent NBA team now, but just wait until they have to suffer through the lean years that will result from gutting the roster to expedite the move.  Be careful what you wish for.

14.  Sacramento Kings

How the once almost-mighty have fallen.  I wanted to like Sacramento, I really did, mostly because Kevin Martin reminds me a little of Reggie Miller, but the trade of Ron Artest gave up a solid, all-star type scorer and defender for nothing more than a retread of a shooting guard in Bobby Jackson who was close to washed up before he left the Kings last time.  There is some talent here, but not nearly enough to compete in the West, and for every genuine player like underrated point guard Beno Udrih, there are two or three other guys like Jackson, Shelden Williams and Mikki Moore who would be overstating their value if I called them one-dimensional.  Has there ever been a guy with as much talent who has put up pretty decent numbers throughout his career and been as totally irrelevant as Shareef Abdur Rahim?  Brad Miller has got to be close to collecting Social Security by now, and I can barely recall why I was so high on Quincy Douby when he was drafted.  There’s just too much depth in the West for Sacramento to make any real noise.  Sadly, it seems like an eternity ago that the foursome of Webber, Divac, Stojakovic and Bibby put the Kings on the NBA map.  It may be a while before they find their way back.

13.  Memphis Grizzlies

I am actually somewhat optimistic about the Grizzlies, mainly because I suspect that O.J. Mayo is for real.  Forget Greg Oden, Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley, here is your Rookie Of The Year.  And I was surprisingly impressed by Marc Gasol during the Oylmpics.  If he comes to the NBA as a big, strong, space-eater not afraid to push people around with a couple of pretty decent back-to-the basket moves, the guard-heavy Grizzlies will cease being a pushover.  They might not win a lot of games this season, but they will be that dangerous team that can beat you if you’re not focused.  Probably a lousy road record but a respectable mark at home.  Rudy #### can score, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he and Mayo combine for close to 50 points a night.  But mostly, Memphis is all about questions.  Can Darko Milicic show some of the talent he came into the league with playing next to a genuine big guy like Gasol?  Will one or more of the guard trio of Kyle Lowry, Javaris Crittendon and Mike Conley show something this season?  Could Darrell Arthur possibly be the sleeper of the draft?  Young doesn’t begin to describe this team; the seven guys I just mentioned have a combined 10 years in the league, and three of those were Darko being stuck very deep on Detroit’s bench.  No chance whatsoever of them getting near the playoffs this season, but they are moving in the right direction.

12.  Minnesota Timberwolves

If you’re looking for a sleeper team that comes out of nowhere and has a nice little, completely unexpected stretch, this one is it.  It’s a shame they’re in the West.  If the Timberwolves played in the East, I would have seriously considered having them in the playoffs.  Kevin Garnett is unquestionably a great, all-time kind of player, but the suggestion that Minnesota got ripped off in that trade is flat wrong.  Al Jefferson is going to be a 20-10 guy long after Garnett has retired.  On draft day, I thought O.J. Mayo was going to make a fantastic outside to Jefferson’s inside for Minnesota for the next 10 years, but he was quickly traded.  If Kevin Love is even close to the kind of player some think he will be, landing him and Mike Miller from Memphis will save the Timberwolves from a black mark like Seattle earned when they drafted Scottie Pippen and then traded him for Olden Polynice.  Polynice turned out to be a halfway decent center who played for bunches of teams, but Pippen’s going to the Hall Of Fame with six rings.  A front court pairing of Jefferson and Love, along with Miller (the elder statesman of this team’s key players at the ripe old age of 28) and any of a number of young talent like Ryan Gomes, Craig Smith, Corey Brewer, Rodney Carney, Randy Foye, Rashad McCants and, yes, even Sebastian Telfair gives this team depth and flexibility.  But they are in the West where the learning curve is very steep, indeed.  There is no margin for error for the Timberwolves to get it all together, and being so young, so much can, and probably will, go wrong.  But don’t be surprised if they actually flirt with a playoff spot during the first half of the season.

11.  Denver Nuggets

This is what really separates the West from the East.  A team that would probably make the playoffs easily in the East isn’t even going to be in top 10 in the West.  Trading Marcus Camby definitely hurts, but it’s not like Denver hasn’t had to go long stretches without him on the floor in the past.  And I’ve always thought his defense was very overrated, anyway.  Sure, he blocks a lot of shots, and alters even more, but his straight-up defensive prowess isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.  He is to blocking shots what Allen Iverson is to steals.  No one would call A.I. a great defender, but he’s always near the league leaders in steals.  It’s easy to put up great defensive stats when that’s the only thing you’re trying for.  It’s Camby’s rebounding I think they’ll miss most.  If they manage to beat the odds and keep Nene and Kenyon Martin from going down, adding to their own long and storied injury histories, they will still have at least a presence in the paint and, who knows, maybe Renaldo Balkman actually has some defensive chops.  The guy I’m intrigued with is Linus Kleiza.  Watching the Nuggets late in the season and during their short-lived playoff stint, Kleiza’s play was giving me flashbacks of Drazen Petrovic, the former New Jersey Nets star who was tragically killed just as he beginning to emerge as a star.  With Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith and Kleiza, Denver will score tons of points.  Defense is their Achilles heel, however.  So what else is new?  The best they can hope for is that a couple of the other playoff-caliber clubs slip a bit, and they can slide into that eighth seed for another four or five game post season stint.

Next Up:  The Mid Majors

Continuing on with my look at the Eastern Conference, here are the leading contenders for a spot in next year’s Finals.  In reality, barring unforeseen injuries, anyone other than the top three teams coming out of the East would be a major surprise, and Cleveland is only in that group because LeBron James has proven to be exceptionally difficult to eliminate, regardless of the personnel around him.  So, here’s my top five:

5.  Philadelphia 76ers

Ever since the trade of Allen Iverson a couple years ago, the Sixers have been stockpiling young talent.  About midway through last season, that talent began to gel, leading to a fantastic second half, a spot in the playoffs and a surprising 2-1 lead on Detroit in the first round.  They came back to earth after that, getting soundly thumped in the final three games of that series, but the foundation was in place for a return to contention.  Then, this offseason, the Sixers made a major splash, adding one of the few consistent 20 and 10 guys in the league in Elton Brand.  If Brand is indeed healthy, Philadelphia is poised to make a run at home court advantage in the first round.  With a solid point guard in Andre Miller, a first rate post player in Brand, a shot-blocking force in the middle with Sam Dalembert, an explosive slasher in Andre Igoudala and young talents like Louis Williams, Willie Green and Thaddeus Young, the Sixers are in the best shape since the won the East behind A.I. and Dikembe Mutombo in 2001.  This year, I expect a win total between 50 and 55, and an excellent chance at reaching their first conference final in eight years.

4.  Orlando Magic

Wow, did Dwight Howard suck in Olympic play.  Some would say that his performance was an indication that he’s still too young to be a genuine, carry-a-team superstar.  I’m not one of those.  Remember how bad Tim Duncan looked during his Olympic experience?  All he’s done since then is win a couple of NBA Titles.  FIBA rules just don’t allow for solid interior post players to dominate as they would during NBA games.  That’s probably why big guys from Europe are more likely to play like much smaller guards rather than using their size and strength to dominate.  Howard will be even better this season than he was last year.  The addition of Mickael Pietrus will turn out to be one of the better free agent signings, and Anthony Johnson gives them an actual backup point guard instead of a masquerading two-guard like Keyon Dooling.  I still believe that Jameer Nelson’s best role would be playing about 25-30 minutes a game as a scorer off the bench with point skills, and that the Magic won’t ascend to genuine championship level until they acquire a pass-first point guard who excels in post entry passes, but with Howard dominating the paint, and versatile scorers like Hedu Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, Orlando will spend the entire season in the upper half of the East. 

3.  Cleveland Cavaliers

What is there left to say about LeBron James at this point?  About the only thing he hasn’t yet done is dominate an NBA Finals or win an MVP Award, and it seems like those accomplishments are only a matter of time.  My first reaction to the trade for Mo Williams was almost negative.  I like the addition of another guard who can actually score, and I’ve never believed that a team with a guy like LeBron really needs a pass-first point guard anyway, but I really liked the contributions Joe Smith brought to the team.  Unless 19-year-old J.J. Hickson is ready to step in right away, losing Smith leaves them a little thin up front, with Ben Wallace and Zydrunas Ilgauskas aging rapidly.  Not that Smith is a spring chicken by any means, but there’s something to be said for strength in numbers, not to mention a guy who comes off the bench, plays solid post defense, offensive rebounds and has a nice little 15-foot jumper.  I think the more pressing need was for a shooting guard better than Wally Szczerbiak, something Danny Ferry probably could have picked up at the local Wal Mart.  Still, I suspect there’s another major move coming at some point this season.  If this roster stays as is, the Cavs will be no better than fifth or sixth in the East and still a very dangerous postseason opponent likely to pull an upset or two.  I believe a move will come, another big time player comes to town and the Cavs will be even money to beat both Boston and Detroit and return to the Finals.

2.  Boston Celtics

The Celtics were a perfect storm of talent and motivation last season en route to their first title in 22 years.  They jumped out of the gate to the tune of 30-3, and held on down the stretch, taking the best record in the league by a relatively wide margin.  After some early playoff struggles, they came together to finish off Detroit and Los Angeles to finally hoist the trophy.  This season, the motivation from years of playoff failure for their big three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will be somewhat lacking.  And I think the loss of James Posey will affect them more than some people believe.  All that being said, they are still, without question, one of the best teams in the league and a repeat title is very possible.  If Rajon Rondo ever gets even an adequate jump shot, he could be one of the top point guards in the league for the next decade or so.  Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe and even Glen Davis all have the potential for significant improvement, as well.  The recent signing of Darius Miles is pretty intriguing.  Portland wrote him off with what they called a career-ending injury, but I suspect some of that had to do with his attitude and the Blazers desire to be rid of his large contract and malcontent nature.  If he can still play even close to the talent he showed a few years ago, Boston may very well repeat.  I expect a little bit of a letdown, especially early in the regular season, but an eventual record approaching 60 wins again and a solid playoff run that comes up just short this time around.

1.  Detroit Pistons

The Pistons resisted making major changes this offseason after losing their third consecutive Eastern Conference Finals, meaning that they will enter this year with basically the same club as last year.  This may be the last go-round for the veteran starting five of Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess, and anything short of another title will definitely mean the end of their time together.  Rodney Stuckey emerged late last year and in the playoffs as the obvious heir-apparent to Billups, and he will only get better this year, along with high-energy reserve Jason Maxiell.  Detroit is even taking a shot at salvaging the career of another guy with talent who hasn’t worked out anywhere else with Kwame Brown, a task they’ve excelled at in the past.  But Brown may be their toughest challenge of all.  I believe that some of the same motivators that helped the Celtics last year will work for the Pistons this year.  I expect Detroit to jump out early and end up with the best record in the East, possibly the entire league.  The Pistons major problem ever since winning the title in 2004 has been a lack of focus in the playoffs, losing games they shouldn’t have and consistently digging themselves into holes they couldn’t always climb out of.  This year, I think they keep their focus and return to the NBA Finals after a three-year absence.

So that’s how I see the Eastern Conference going into this year.  As always, there will be trades, injuries and unexpected performances, both good and bad, that will change the makeup of the conference.  But right now, this is how I see it ending up.  Next, the bottom five in the West.

Continuing on with my preseason look at the Eastern Conference, here are teams 6 through 10.  Last season, three teams at .500 or worse made the playoffs.  That is not going to happen again.  I believe it’s going to take 42-45 wins to get into the post season this year.  All five of these teams have the capability of getting that done.

10.  Toronto Raptors

Toronto is a trendy pick to move up in the East after trading for Jermaine O’Neal, but I just can’t bring myself to believe that he’ll stay on the floor all season, or be the kind of player he was five or six years ago.  That being said, the Raptors were just 41-41 last season.  They might actually have a better record this year and still miss the playoffs.  I like the move to clear out T.J. Ford and hand the full time point guard reins to Jose Calderon.  I expect him to end up in the top five in the league in assists, averaging double figures.  This team’s main drawback is a total lack of interior strength.  Their best big guys, Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani and O’Neal, all play small, and that will kill them in the end.  Still, they should be in playoff contention, coming up just short.

9.  Milwaukee Bucks    

I liked the Bucks chances better before they traded Mo Williams.  They did land Luke Ridnour in the deal, but he has been nothing short of miserable the past couple of years playing on really bad Seattle teams.  If he can regain some of the form he showed a few years ago when Seattle reached the second round of the playoffs, the Bucks will have an excellent shot of landing a playoff spot, and possibly making some noise when they get there.  With Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd, Charlie Villanueva, Andrew Bogut and explosive rookie Joe Alexander, he’ll have plenty of chances for assists, but a rejuvenation is far from secure.  If he can’t get it back together, Milwaukee will be in major trouble at the point, and that will cost them a chance at postseason play.  I’m guessing Ridnour will be solid yet unspectacular and the Bucks will miss the postseason by a hair, possibly going down to the final day of the season.

8.  Atlanta Hawks      

After years of futility, the Hawks finally broke through and nearly pulled the greatest upset in NBA playoff history, taking a Celtics team that was almost 30 games ahead of them in to standings to a game seven.  Just having Mike Bibby on the floor for a full season should be enough to get them over .500.  And it’s a distinct possibility that Marvin Williams will blossom now that Josh Childress is playing in Greece, Al Horford will take a step up into All Star territory and Josh Smith will move into superstar range.  And that’s not even mentioning Joe Johnson, who is still Atlanta’s best player.  Depth is the main concern, I think.  An injury or two that causes key players to miss significant time will derail the entire season.  My guess is they will be better right out of the gate this year, and two of the three key young guys will step up their games, crashing the post season for the second year in a row.  The short bench will be their downfall, however.  The Hawks are a year and a few shrewd personnel moves away from legitimate contention.

7.  Washington Wizards      

This is kind of a difficult team to figure.  They may have been better off letting Gilbert Arenas walk and spending that money elsewhere, but they gave him an enormous contract despite missing nearly the entire season with an injury, and the team performing very well without him.  Caron Butler, if he can stay away from the injuries that have hurt him throughout his career, looks to be a guy blossoming into a genuine star, and with Brendan Haywood looking like an actual player for the first time in his career and young big guy Andray Blatche looking as though he has a nice upside, the Wizards won’t be just the same old run and gun team.  Look for some of the toughness they displayed in the Cleveland series to carry over into this year, and winning home court advantage in the first round is a possibility.  But I expect they will again have some injury issues that will cost them a few games, and Agent Zero’s new contract will look even worse by the end of the season.  They’ll probably just be happy if they don’t have to face LeBron James and the Cavs in the first round again.

6.  Chicago Bulls       

This is the team I think will move up the most in the East.  Remember, just two seasons ago, Chicago swept the defending champions in the first round, before last season’s catastrophe, led by a disgruntled and massively overrated Ben Gordon.  From all reports, Gordon is done as a Bull, and to me, that is definite addition by subtraction.  It would have been an enormous mistake to pay him $10 million per year.  Chicago is much better off giving the bigger and more defense-minded Thabo Sefolosha more minutes than dealing with the streaky, much-too-small, defenseless Gordon any longer.  The main reason I think the Bulls will move into the playoffs is that I don’t think their roster is done.  I suspect there may be a major move coming up sometime this season.  The Bulls still have an abundance of pieces to package together, and their inability to put together deals for Pau Gasol, Kevin Garnett or any other quality player over the past few seasons has held this team back.  This year, I believe they get it done.  With the right deal, they could move up even higher.  I expect a slow start as Derrick Rose learns the pro game, but a strong finish, and a reconstituted team that could possibly pull a major upset come playoff time.

Next Up:  Top Of The Heap

 

I’m excited.  The NBA season is almost upon us, and after all of the player shifting, wheeling and dealing, I thought I’d run down my list of the best teams in each conference from the bottom up in sets of five.  I’ll start with the inferior but improving East.  Here are my bottom five clubs.  None of these teams will even sniff a playoff spot, and four of the five could well be competing for the top pick in next year’s draft.

15.  New York Knicks

Finally, the long reign of terror known as Isiah Thomas has ended.  Mike D’Antoni takes the helm of one of the least talented teams this side of Oklahoma City.  D’Antoni intends to instill his run and gun style of play but this isn’t Phoenix and Chris Duhon is most definitely not Steve Nash.  There are a few useful players on the roster, but the big-time talents are notoriously lazy.  And other than rookie Danilo Gallinari, nobody in this group has any real upside in their games beyond what they’ve already shown.  I would be very surprised if D’Antoni can coax more than 25 wins out of this bunch.  Most likely, this will be one of those dreaded rebuilding seasons that starts poorly, leads to a player purge and ends with a top five lottery pick.  D’Antoni might get a little bit of a pass from the fickle New York fans as long as the team at least plays with energy and enthusiasm while continuing to reshape the roster and shows some kind of promise for the future, but the Knicks ground up a Hall Of Fame coach like Larry Brown after just one season, it will be interesting to see how long D’antoni hangs around if this ends up as a Heat-like 15-67 type of year, and it just might.

14.  New Jersey Nets

When looking at the Nets roster, the first question that comes to mind is, “who is going to score points for these guys?”  Other than Vince Carter and Devin Harris, there are no offensive players on this team.  I fully expect them to be amongst the lowest scoring teams in the league, if not the lowest.  Maybe Yi Jianlian will show some of the promise that he came into the NBA with and maybe Brook Lopez and/or Chris Douglas-Roberts will become a rookie sensation.  Maybe not.  The Nets have a better chance of landing the number one pick than they do of getting within 15 games of a playoff spot, and that’s in the East where 37 wins got it done last season.  With all the talk about the Nets and the Knicks being the lead contenders in the LeBron James sweepstakes two offseasons from now, I have a hard time believing that rosters this poor are going to improve enough to attract what will probably be the best player in the game at the time, no matter how much money they have to offer.  The only real question for the Nets this season is how long will it be before they find a taker for Vince Carter.

13.  Miami Heat

My first inclination with the Heat was to put them higher up on the list, but does any team in the league have less depth than Miami?  They are no more than an injury away from ending up with another sub-20 win season.  Dwayne Wade has looked fantastic in International play this summer and looks like he might be back to the player he was two years ago, but he had better have some wide shoulders, not to mention healthy ones, to carry this team.  The only chance they have to get anywhere near the playoffs is if they stay healthy all year and Michael Beasley turns in a Rookie-Of-The-Year type of campaign.  And even then, that last playoff spot had better be in the 37-win neighborhood again or it will be out of reach no matter what.  That’s not to say that the Heat won’t have a big impact on this season’s playoffs.  I expect that both Shawn Marion and Udonis Haslem will be suiting up elsewhere by the end of the season.  Look for another poor start despite big numbers from Wade, and another top five lottery pick added to the mix next year.

12.  Charlotte Bobcats

If nothing else, it will be fun to watch Larry Brown pull out what’s left of his hair trying to deal with Raymond Felton as his point guard.  If the players don’t just tune out his constant complaining and backstabbing like they did in New York, Brown will most likely get Charlotte playing solid defense behind Emeka Okafor, but points may be hard to come by.  I recall seeing bunches of criticism lobbed at Orlando a few years back for taking a high school kid with the top pick in the draft over the four-year college national champion Okafor, but that decision turned out to be a franchise-defining one in the wrong direction for Charlotte.  Had Orlando gone for the college experience over the potential talent, Dwight Howard would be suiting up in Okafor’s place, and the Bobcats would be an up and coming club in the East.  Instead, they’ll just continue to tread water in the lower third of the conference.  Maybe Brown has one last magic trick in his bag (and he had better to avoid doing ever-lasting damage to his reputation after the combo of the Kincks debacle and Olympics failure) and can get the Bobcats to play over their head, but it’s more likely that 30 wins will be about as good as it gets and a new point guard will be suiting up next year, if not sooner.

11.  Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are one of those teams I don’t quite know what to make of.  Part of me thinks that, if they can find the right combination of players, they can be decent.  But another part of me looks at the makeup of this club and thinks, “these guys suck.”  The last I checked, Jamaal Tinsley is still on the roster and, in my opinion, is still the best point guard on the team, even after adding T.J. Ford and Jarrett Jack, but he has proven time and again that he can’t stay on the floor, and I expect he’ll be elsewhere soon.  Mike Dunleavy actually looked like a player last season for the first time in his career, but don’t be surprised if he regresses a bit this year.  Still, there is enough talent here that the Pacers should be better than the other four teams on this list, but that’s not saying much.  If they get to 35 wins, they should be happy.  There are many more parts needed here before the Pacers get back to playing at the level they did in the ‘90s.  But on the plus side, they won’t be let down by Jermaine O’Neal anymore.

Next up:  The Middle of the Road

So the U.S. finished off its redemption and once again topped the world in the Olympics for the gold medal.  Before I start ranting here, let me say, I think it's great.  We've got the most talent in the world, had by far the deepest team in the tournament and are back where we belong, at the top. 

But, to me, the one negative in all of this is the continued celebration and idolization of Mike Krzyzewski.  It may not be the politically correct thing to say, but I absolutely, unabashedly hate that arrogant SOB.  Now, admittedly, I'm a Maryland Terp fan, and if there is one program in the country above all others that we, as Terp backers, can't stand, it's Duke.  Maryland could go 2-14 in the ACC, but as long as those two wins are against the Blue Devils, it's a successful season.  Some would say we're just jealous, but  we've got a more recent National Championship Banner than Mr. Gold Medal Coach does. Hah!

Maybe I'm biased (yeah, just maybe) but I've always felt that Coach K was one of the most over rated coaches in the country.  Don't get me wrong, he's a great recruiter.  Over the past 20 to 25 years, he's brought in as much or more talent as any program in the country.  But his teams have a tendency of falling flat when the big game comes around.  It started early on with upset losses year after year in the Final Four before finally breaking through in 1991 with a team loaded with talent that upset a then-undeafeted UNLV team that had stomped the Blue Devils the year before.  I'm not usually one for conspiracy theories, but I have no doubt that UNLV threw that game.  The photo that circulated later of the Running Rebels best players hanging out in a hottub living it up with a notorious gambler and game fixer was all the evidence I needed.

They won again in 1992, but only after beating Kentucky on a miraculous buzzer beater by Christian Laettner that was helped by the fact that the clock didn't start ticking off the 2.2 seconds left in the game until Laettner had caught the ball, came down to the floor, dribbled once and spun to face the basket.  I think Kentucky fans will tell you that those were the longest 2 seconds in the recorded history of mankind.  Duke violated the laws of Quantum Mechanics to win that game.

Coach K got his third title in 2001, a particularly painful one for me to see at that.  My Terps pulled a (gasp) choke of epic proportion against the Blue Devils in the Final Four, blowing a 22-point lead.  Basically, my point is that Duke shouldn't have won any of those titles, and Coach K should still be the coach who can't win the big game.  He lost his other four NCAA finals.

But even at that, the Blue Devils played the game right.  They had great point guards, played a solid inside-out game and always played defense.  But sometime in the mid '90s, that changed.  The Duke teams of the last decade or so consistently play soft, regardless of personnel, and have a tendency to jack up tons of ill-conceived threes.  Sometimes, when they're making them, it works, but against genuinely good teams, it doesn't.  That's why the Duke teams of today aren't really legitimate championship contenders, despite consistently high seeds and ridiculous regular season records.  Coach K seems unwilling or unable to get his teams out of this trend, ever since 1993, when he let notorius gunner Jeff Capel run wild without consequence, throwing up shots that even Allen Iverson would think twice about taking.   Since then, Duke has been known more for producing an array of vastly over-rated shooting guards, from Capel to Trajan Langdon to J.J Redick, than any real championship-level success.

But perhaps the worst thing of all about Coach K is his arrogance.  You'd think the guy was Patton or somebody instead of a college basketball coach.  I ran across some old video tapes the other day, and one of them was Game 7 from the Heat-Pistons Eastern Conference Final a few years ago, and during one of the commercial breaks, wouldn't you know, there was an American Express commercial with none other than Mr. All-Time Leader of Men.  At the end of the commercial, Coach K actually said, in his usual humorless tone, "I don't think of myself as a basketball coach.  I think of myself as a leader who happens to coach basketball."  Gag.  That's a helluva noble sentiment to utter, especially when you're hocking credit cards.  What a guy.

Anyway, now he's the guy who saved American basketball.  And wasn't that image of the entire team draping their medals around his neck just oh so sweet?  I know it brought a tear to my eye, despite the fact that any #### off the street could have won a gold medal coaching that team.  All the talk about how miserably Larry Brown failed in 2004 and how Coach K stepped in to get the guys to play the right way again is so much bluster.  Compare the rosters of the 2004 team and the current model.  The 2008 champions are light years better and more experienced than the ill-conceived collection of inexperience and selfishness that took the floor in 2004.

So Coach K is now an American hero.  Yah!  Just what I always wanted to see.  Now, if you'll excuse me, I've got a bad taste in my mouth.   I'll think I'll  go suck on a lemon.  I don't think I'm quite bitter enough.

So LeBron James and Kobe Bryant are on record for saying that if someone from overseas were to offer them $50 million a season, they'd bolt from the NBA.  First off, who wouldn't?  Anyone that claims they would turn down this kind of outrageous money for one season for any reason, patriotism or otherwise, is completely full of it.  It's more than double the max contract the NBA will allow under current salary cap restrictions, and it's tax free!.  Not only would they be lying, they'd be stupid. 

This has to get David Stern's knickers in a twist.  For decades now, Stern has led the way in marketing the NBA based upon its best and brightest superstar players.  If, all of a sudden, there is a significantly better financial option for these guys, do you think its just going to be one or two who split?  It's going to be a flood of the top players in the league, as long as the money is flowing from European clubs.  And the NBA slowly becomes a league sporting the best of what's left over.  I wonder if he's rethinking all of that International marketing, and the push to allow NBA'ers into the Olympics as the original Dream Team that seemed like such a good idea at the time?

Worst of all for the League is that there isn't really a damn thing they can do about it.  There's no way Stern can allow NBA teams to match this kinds of money without totally scrapping the salary cap system, and that kind of upswing in pay around the league would make owning an NBA team a massive money pit.  Not to mention that the kind of parity we saw this year would be a thing of the past.  With no salary cap, high revenue clubs would dominate every year.  This isn't baseball where one player, no matter how great he is, cannot make you a champion.  In the NBA, one player is routinely the difference between 20 wins and 50.

There are only a couple of ways for the League to even try to deal with this.  One is to let them go, stick to your principles and hope that the huge money being thrown around by foreign teams runs out.  I mean, when you're paying one guy $50 million, that has to make it kind of difficult to turn a profit.  Business sense would have to kick in eventually, right?  Well, not if they guy writing those checks is a billionaire who spends $50 million a week on champagne, caviar and high-end escorts. 

Another is to set up some sort of punitive rules against players who choose this route.  Not sure exactly what those would be, but a buy-in to regain NBA eligibility would be an interesting  possibility.   Wanna go play in Europe, LeBron?  Okay, but when you want back into the NBA, you have to pay the League 40% of the money you earned over there, up front.  Otherwise, it was nice knowing you.  This wouldn't work either, and is probably illegal, but Stern has played hardball with guys in the past, and I could definitely see him try to punish guys for having the audacity of leaving his league.

Another way, and this would be more in keeping with Stern's sneaky corporate manueverings, would be to lobby for the IRS to get involved.  As it stands right now, the players keep all of this money, tax free.  Make a few well-placed bribes (sorry, we call them campaign contributions now) and change the rules and make this money taxable for U.S. citizens at something like 75% and that levels the playing field, unless they want to not just play overseas but defect as well.  Collecting a tax free paycheck is one thing, leaving the United States forever is quite another.  And they could even cloak this in rah-rah patriotism, "Keeping the best of America in America."

But probably the most effective way, and one that doesn't involve sticking it to guys who have every right to tell David Stern and his flunkies to shove it and sell their unique talents to the highest bidder, is some kind of eventual merger between the NBA and the Euroleague.  Two conferences, one in this half of the world and one in that half, everyone working under the same salary structures.  That still wouldn't rule out rogue billionaires throwing around big money from lesser leagues, but it brings most of Europe's big money players (the financial kind, not the basketball kind) under the NBA umbrella and theoretically benefits all concerned, with the exception of the occasional transcendent superstar, and there's always marketing dollars out there for them, even more so with a truly world-wide league.

Any way around it, the face of the NBA is changing far more quickly than I or anyone would have anticipated.  Major changes are coming if the NBA is going to stay the best league in the world and not just a footnote to the European Championships.  The next couple of years will tell the tale.  Both Kobe and LeBron have contracts running out, and someone from overseas will make a run at them.   And it now looks like it's going to take a helluva lot more than just trading Richard Jefferson to clear salary cap space to make a run at either of them.

Okay, no more criticizing the Lakers.  Geez, you'd think I insulted people's mothers or something.  The Lakers are a lock to win 70 games this season, and they'll go undefeated through the playoffs.  Kobe Bryant is the best player in the history of sports, Andrew Bynum will be the best center in the league this year, Pau Gasol will learn to play tough and Lamar Odom will finally bring the intensity every night.  I'm a convert.  Go Lakers!

No, really, I stand by everything I've said prior to that last paragraph.  The actual games may not bear me out, but I usually have good instincts about these things.  And I am already really excited to see how this season will play out.  Especially to watch Andrew Bynum.  I haven't seen him play all that much, compared to most other guys who will be under the kind of pressure he will be this year, and I really want to see whether or not he's the difference maker a lot of people seem to think he is.  Plus, I want to watch Portland and Golden State.  The Blazers are nearly everyone's pick to rise up into the West's pecking order, and I'd like to see Greg Oden actually on the floor for a change.  I'm still undecided about how much better they will be (or if they will be better at all).  The Warriors have a completely different look and I'm very curious to see what that means on the court.  They have talent all over the place, but are young and generally defenseless.  They are one of the teams I'm most interested in seeing in games that count.

I was watching some of the playoff games from last year, most notably the Houston-Utah series, the other day,  just to refresh myself with the Rockets to make certain I hadn't gone off the deep end as some have suggested.  One thing I realized is that I have probably underestimated the Jazz.  I am admittedly not the biggest Carlos Boozer fan, and AK 47 is a tad flighty to put it mildly, but I had forgotten about guys like Corey Brewer and Paul Milsap.  I've seen Kyle Korver play a lot when he was with the 76ers, and his role as designated 3-point shooter in Utah is a perfect fit for him, especially since he has few other skills.   But Deron Williams is why I've changed my tune.  He really is exceptional.  I still think Boozer is probably the Achilles heel for the team that will bring them down in the postseason, but they are clearly better than I had previously stated, and if they can improve upon their 19-29 road record of last year (including the playoffs) they can make the West a five horse race.

Wow, is Josh Howard an ####.  I still have a little optimism (very little, and fading by the day) about the Mavericks, I don't think they are done as many have said, but real championship contention is most likely out of the question.  If Howard's random acts of stupidity force Dallas to trade him, they will get nowhere near value in return at this point.  If they dump him just to clear him out, the Mavs will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs.  Drag Racing!  What a ####.

Does anybody really like International basketball?  I've been watching some of the Team USA warm up games and I just can't get into it.  The flow of the game is off somehow.  Admittedly, the games are warm ups, maybe the actual competition will be better, but I've never really enjoyed International games all that much in the past.  I think the team might actually be too deep.  No one gets the number of minutes they probably should and that's got to affect the rhythm within their own games.   I do like the physical play on the guards, though.  I think the NBA went too far in stopping contact on the perimeter.  It seems a little hypocritical that someone in the paint can get hammered and the chances of getting a foul called are about 50/50, but if you look cross-eyed at a guard out over the three point line, it's almost always a foul.

It's just not that exciting to me.  Of course, watching an All-Star team blow people out by 50 points doesn't make for enthralling television.  Even that "hard-fought defensive struggle" against Russia that they won by 20 points wasn't particularly interesting.  I never got the feeling that Russia could actually win that game.  There are probably only two or three teams that can beat the U.S., and I expect that will only happen if they get complacent in blowing people out.  I just hope the Olympics end without anyone suffering a major injury.  Can you imagine the backlash if Kobe or LeBron or Chris Paul blows out a knee somewhere along the way?  And for what?  Representing your country?  Come on, the guys in body armor, risking their lives in Iraq are representing their country.  These guys are playing in a basketball tournament on the cheap for an organization that reaps billions from "amateur" athletics and makes the NCAA look like a humanitarian group.  I can understand why NBA owners don't like their players competing in this.  Do you think the IOC or USA Basketball is going to reimburse an NBA team for their loss if someone gets hurt?  Wouldn't hold my breath.