Ok, it seems like the transaction wire in the NBA is starting to heat up with another couple of big moves today. The Clippers swiped Marcus Camby from Denver for a bag of magic beans, and The Hornets swiped James Posey from underneath the Celtics for a bag of greenbacks. Here's some first impressions.
I have to reserve judgment on the Nuggets until I see who the player is that the $10 million trade exception they received from the Clippers nets them. As long as they get a solid contributor who can play defense with that exception, this smells to me like one of those deals where a team sells on a player at just the right moment. Camby is 34, a 12-year vet with a long and storied history of injuries, but not so much in the past 5 years. If he manages to stay healthy and on the court, the Clips can get close to their money's worth for at least one season, but that's a big if in my mind, especially with the Clippers. Is there another franchise in all of sports who's been hit by catastrophic injuries to its best players more frequently than L.A.'s junior team? The same concern exists for Baron Davis. I expect Camby will begin the decline phase of his career, even if healthy. This is a gasp move by L.A. desperately trying to make up for the loss of Elton Brand. Still, if everyone is healthy, they could be competitive but that's a long way from the post season in the crazy-deep west.
The Hornets just jumped to the top of my list of Western Conference teams with the addition of Posey, at least until the Lakers manage to haggle a deal for Ron Artest. If New Orleans was a little more seasoned last year, they would have finished off San Antonio and put on an epic Western Conference Final with the Lakers. This is a big blow to Boston, however. There is no way, zip, zero, no chance Boston wins that title without Posey. How do they replace him now? The short answer is, they don't. Boston definitely comes back to the pack some in the East. Joe Dumars must be thrilled by this defection.
A couple of minor moves made last week that I really liked caught my attention as well. Orlando signing Mickael Pietrus away from the Warriors and San Antonio signing Roger Mason from the Wizards. The Spurs desperately need fresh legs on the bench and Mason can score in bunches, plus, if Gilbert Arenas comes back healthy, his playing time in Washington was going to be very minimal. One or two more guys like this and San Antonio's back in the hunt for the top spot in the West. I really like what Orlando's done so far this offseason. Pietrus can shoot and defend and will fit in perfectly. They also drafted Courtney Lee and just signed a nice backup point guard in Anthony Johnson, potentially a big upgrade on Keyon Dooling. The Magic are going to contend seriously this year, I'm thinking Eastern Finals at least, especially with Boston's sudden issue and who knows what Detroit will do in the next couple months? It's possible that both Rasheed Wallace and Chauncey Billups will be playing elsewhere by opening day, so the Pistons might take a step back as well. With only Philadelphia (and possibly Toronto, but I have see a Jermaine O'Neal rejuvenation before believe it) making a significant upgrade among last season's playoff teams in the East so far, Orlando may just be able to snake home court in the East.
As of right now, very early though it may be, here's what I see as next year's post-season 16. Many moves to come, however, so this will probably change dramatically. By the way, I'm completely ignoring divisions, these are just the top 8 teams in each conference in my mind at the moment.
East 1. Boston (Even without Posey, but very close to Detroit and Orlando in my mind right now) 2. Detroit (Have to temper this because I think there is at least one major trade coming) 3. Orlando (I expect they'll be higher before the season starts, barring a great trade by Detroit) 4. Washington (If Arenas is healthy, Butler is a star, Jamison can score and an improved inside game with the growth of Andray Blatche. They had a winning record last year missing Arenas for almost the entire year and Butler for 24 games) 5. Cleveland (Any team that plays defense like they can and has LeBron James is going to be in the hunt come playoff time. They move up if they manage to move Wally Szczerbiak for an actual useful shooting guard) 6. Philadelphia (Got to keep Igoudala. Lose him as a restricted free agent and their playing for the eighth spot at best. Keep him and if Brand is totally healthy and on his game, they move up, maybe way up) 7. Toronto (Jose Calderon as a full time starter is going to be near the league lead in assists and Chris Bosh is an all star. Jermaine O'Neal is the difference between moving up or mediocrity. That worked out so well for Indiana in the past) 8. Milwaukee (The top 7 are pretty certain to be in, in my mind. This spot is anyone's to grab. Taking a flyer on the Bucks right now, primarily because there are so many questions and trades yet to be made with almost everyone else right now)
West 1. New Orleans (Another year under Chris Paul's belt and Robert Horry wannabe James Posey on the floor, almost won last year, can definitely take it this year) 2. Houston (Okay, first let me say this one has an enormous if attached to it. IF everyone is healthy come playoff time, this might be the best team in the entire league, definitely the most unappreciated. But that's a gigantic, 2-ton if) 3. L.A. Lakers (For now, but its close with San Antonio, who I still think would have beaten them if Manu Ginobli had been healthy. There will be a change coming up that could bump them up to the top) 4. San Antonio (The biggest concern I have with the Spurs is how much the new flopping rule will affect them. My guess is that the flopping rule will be just like a flop on the court, all flash and little impact. If they add some more young legs, they could be up to the top) 5. Dallas (Probably a trade coming, but I would keep Josh Howard, personally. Really, all he said was that he smoked weed in the offseason, not barbecuing small children or something. Anybody think Mark Cuban doesn't?) 6. Utah (Not really the biggest Carlos Boozer fan, probably more likely to drop them then raise them at this point. Don't be completely surprised if they miss the playoffs, the west is really deep, and remember they were pretty average in the first third of last season) 7. Phoenix (Here's another team that could miss out entirely. Nash and Shaq get their AARP newsletters delivered to U.S. Airways Arena. The more I think about the trade for Shaq, the more I can't believe someone actually got paid to be that stupid. Stoudamire is good, but Nash makes him great) 8. Portland (For now. Lots of talent, could go up or out altogether. Remember, it takes two years from microfracture surgery to get all the way back, if ever. We're not going to see 100% Greg Oden this year, even if he stays on the floor. The other competitors are hit or miss, maybe Denver with another trade, maybe the Clippers if Eric Gordon is ROY and they miss the injury bug, maybe the Warriors if Monta Ellis can handle the point and they find a new leader to replace Davis because Corey Maggette may score but he's not a leader, and don't sleep on Sacramento--they could sneak up on everyone depending on the return for Ron Artest)
I'm a Hornets fan but not sure if signing Posey makes them tops in the West. Although it does make them a much more improved team and after last season that has to be scary to some teams. Next season CP3 will be MVP.
I can understand how u could think that the Hornets are better than the Lakers (I don't think they are because the Lakers have Kobe and more experience), but there is no way the Rockets are better than the Lakers, even if they are healthy.
Well, Houston finished last season only two games behind the Lakers. If it hadn't been for those injuries to Yao Ming and Rafer Alston late in the season, I don't think it's a stretch to say that they could well have been the top seed. Houston has some tough, scrappy defensive minded players, the kinds of guys the Lakers don't have, especially if they lose Turiaf, and the kinds of guys that helped Boston push them around. Still, it only works if everyone's healthy and playing, it's probably 80-20 against that happening, but sometimes things line up nicely, so its not impossible. In the playoffs, that series with Utah has a whole different look if Alston plays the first two games. How many teams could win a playoff series missing their starting point guard and center? And you're not always going to be able to pick up a 7-foot all star for nothing significant to fill in for an injured player. The Lakers really caught a break in the playoffs, I think. Denver was never going to beat anybody, Utah is not really that good, although their home record is impressive, and San Antonio was worn down by the Suns and Hornets and the injury to Ginobli. Plus, we don't really know how Bynum will be when he comes back. Last I heard, he hasn't even been cleared to run yet. All that being said, a swap of Odom for Artest puts the Lakers on top, I think.
Last edited by spanish_jam on July 17th at 5:58 AM.
You could probably make a case that Chris Paul should have been the MVP this year, but yeah, if he continues to grow and the Hornets keep winning, he's got to be the favorite, unless LeBron averages a triple double and carries Cleveland to a top spot in the East, or The Lakers win 60+ games with Kobe playing his usual self. My point with New Orleans against the Lakers is the same as Houston, they have some tough, physical guys and more scoring power than Houston and Paul really controls the tempo o####ame about as well as anyone in the league right now. Experience is a little overrated in my mind anyway. Plus, I expect them to take some serious lessons away from not finishing off the Spurs, especially on the road. I do think they're on top right now, until Artest puts on purple and gold, anyway.
Hello,I am an open-mineded single girl and I love sports. I want to end my single life by meeting a guy who0 likes sports too. Let's mingle at the club ==== mixed mingle. c o m====where love is color blind(my username there is crazygirl).
"There is no way, zip, zero, no chance Boston wins that title without Posey. How do they replace him now?"
The Celtics didn't want to pay Posey that much for the long term plus they still have Tony Allen to replace Posey. They could afford to lose him since Allen is perhaps a better lockdown defender than Posey although his outside shooting may not be as proven.
I don't see the loss of Posey affecting the Celtics all that much next year. IMO, they are still the favorites to win the East.
As far as your West outlook is concerned, I just don't see how you can underestimate the Lakers as the top preseason pick to win the conference. Not only did they beat the defending champion Spurs without Bynum, they also took two games against the Celtics without Bynum, who is their best defender and their best big man.
I can see how you question his ability to come back strong after the injury but bottom line is... the Lakers will get him as well as Trevor Ariza back and they are still defending West Champs. They've proven it. Houston and New Orleans haven't proven squat. All they've done is add a couple players.
You have Houston way too high, especially since they are unproven. And if you question Bynum's health factor and put the Lakers at three, then why do you have the unproven Rockets at two with Yao's health a major issue? Yao has way more injuries than Bynum, he's more brittle than Bynum, and after the Olympics what will Yao have left in the tank? YOu must consider those factors as well.
1. Lakers 2. New Orleans 3. Utah 4. San Antonio 5. Portland 6. Houston 7. Phoenix 8. Clippers
Dallas is done because Kidd is another year older, Howard is uninspired, Nowitzki can't do it all himself, and like always they have no center. Each one of the teams above has a legit center, which is another thing to keep in mind when analyzing Western Conference predictions.
J-Dizzle,
Like your style!
spanish_jam,
While your correct that the Jazz had a pretty average first third of the season, in the last two-thirds they really stepped it up.
Never underestimate the Jazz, they are full of surprises.
I'm just not on the Laker bandwagon just yet. I really believe they benefited from good matchups and good timing to get to finals as relatively easy as they did. And the reason I question Bynum's health is that he's not a proven player yet. Yes, he's got skills and seems to have tons of potential but he hasn't translated that to more than stretches of a couple of months. Yao is a proven player, you know what you're going to get when he comes back, and I said that the big if with the Rockets is their health. If they are healthy, I do think they may be the best overall team. The Lakers, if they are healthy, could also be the best overall team. In my opinion, the top four in the west (Hornets, Rockets, Lakers and Spurs) are virtually interchangable, any one of them could be the top team.
I also don't believe Dallas is done. They aren't going to win 67 games like they did a couple years ago, but they will be a solid playoff team. They suffered from woeful coaching the past couple of years. It was pretty apparent, in their last three playoff series, that Avery Johnson was outclassed as a coach and had no idea how to make adjustments necessary to win in the postseason. He was schooled by Pat Riley, Don Nelson and Byron Scott in succession. Not that Rick Carlisle is a godsend, but he's a better overall coach that Avery ever will be.
And not to belabor a point, but what has Portland proven? You have them ahead of the Rockets on the basis of one .500 season and a lots of talent that hasn't shown it in wins and losses yet.
Last edited by spanish_jam on July 26th at 9:51 AM.
I am an actual professional writer (hard to believe, I know, but I do earn a living at it) who even owns my own publishing company in Maryland. I am a proud drop-out from the University of Maryland and still a life-long Terp fan. My blog is named in honor of my favorite former NBA player, Tim Hardaway, without all the homophobia. I just loved the guy and his game. I only hope he doesn't kick my #### for saying that.
