Continuing on with my look at the Eastern Conference, here are the leading contenders for a spot in next year’s Finals.  In reality, barring unforeseen injuries, anyone other than the top three teams coming out of the East would be a major surprise, and Cleveland is only in that group because LeBron James has proven to be exceptionally difficult to eliminate, regardless of the personnel around him.  So, here’s my top five:

5.  Philadelphia 76ers

Ever since the trade of Allen Iverson a couple years ago, the Sixers have been stockpiling young talent.  About midway through last season, that talent began to gel, leading to a fantastic second half, a spot in the playoffs and a surprising 2-1 lead on Detroit in the first round.  They came back to earth after that, getting soundly thumped in the final three games of that series, but the foundation was in place for a return to contention.  Then, this offseason, the Sixers made a major splash, adding one of the few consistent 20 and 10 guys in the league in Elton Brand.  If Brand is indeed healthy, Philadelphia is poised to make a run at home court advantage in the first round.  With a solid point guard in Andre Miller, a first rate post player in Brand, a shot-blocking force in the middle with Sam Dalembert, an explosive slasher in Andre Igoudala and young talents like Louis Williams, Willie Green and Thaddeus Young, the Sixers are in the best shape since the won the East behind A.I. and Dikembe Mutombo in 2001.  This year, I expect a win total between 50 and 55, and an excellent chance at reaching their first conference final in eight years.

4.  Orlando Magic

Wow, did Dwight Howard suck in Olympic play.  Some would say that his performance was an indication that he’s still too young to be a genuine, carry-a-team superstar.  I’m not one of those.  Remember how bad Tim Duncan looked during his Olympic experience?  All he’s done since then is win a couple of NBA Titles.  FIBA rules just don’t allow for solid interior post players to dominate as they would during NBA games.  That’s probably why big guys from Europe are more likely to play like much smaller guards rather than using their size and strength to dominate.  Howard will be even better this season than he was last year.  The addition of Mickael Pietrus will turn out to be one of the better free agent signings, and Anthony Johnson gives them an actual backup point guard instead of a masquerading two-guard like Keyon Dooling.  I still believe that Jameer Nelson’s best role would be playing about 25-30 minutes a game as a scorer off the bench with point skills, and that the Magic won’t ascend to genuine championship level until they acquire a pass-first point guard who excels in post entry passes, but with Howard dominating the paint, and versatile scorers like Hedu Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, Orlando will spend the entire season in the upper half of the East. 

3.  Cleveland Cavaliers

What is there left to say about LeBron James at this point?  About the only thing he hasn’t yet done is dominate an NBA Finals or win an MVP Award, and it seems like those accomplishments are only a matter of time.  My first reaction to the trade for Mo Williams was almost negative.  I like the addition of another guard who can actually score, and I’ve never believed that a team with a guy like LeBron really needs a pass-first point guard anyway, but I really liked the contributions Joe Smith brought to the team.  Unless 19-year-old J.J. Hickson is ready to step in right away, losing Smith leaves them a little thin up front, with Ben Wallace and Zydrunas Ilgauskas aging rapidly.  Not that Smith is a spring chicken by any means, but there’s something to be said for strength in numbers, not to mention a guy who comes off the bench, plays solid post defense, offensive rebounds and has a nice little 15-foot jumper.  I think the more pressing need was for a shooting guard better than Wally Szczerbiak, something Danny Ferry probably could have picked up at the local Wal Mart.  Still, I suspect there’s another major move coming at some point this season.  If this roster stays as is, the Cavs will be no better than fifth or sixth in the East and still a very dangerous postseason opponent likely to pull an upset or two.  I believe a move will come, another big time player comes to town and the Cavs will be even money to beat both Boston and Detroit and return to the Finals.

2.  Boston Celtics

The Celtics were a perfect storm of talent and motivation last season en route to their first title in 22 years.  They jumped out of the gate to the tune of 30-3, and held on down the stretch, taking the best record in the league by a relatively wide margin.  After some early playoff struggles, they came together to finish off Detroit and Los Angeles to finally hoist the trophy.  This season, the motivation from years of playoff failure for their big three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will be somewhat lacking.  And I think the loss of James Posey will affect them more than some people believe.  All that being said, they are still, without question, one of the best teams in the league and a repeat title is very possible.  If Rajon Rondo ever gets even an adequate jump shot, he could be one of the top point guards in the league for the next decade or so.  Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe and even Glen Davis all have the potential for significant improvement, as well.  The recent signing of Darius Miles is pretty intriguing.  Portland wrote him off with what they called a career-ending injury, but I suspect some of that had to do with his attitude and the Blazers desire to be rid of his large contract and malcontent nature.  If he can still play even close to the talent he showed a few years ago, Boston may very well repeat.  I expect a little bit of a letdown, especially early in the regular season, but an eventual record approaching 60 wins again and a solid playoff run that comes up just short this time around.

1.  Detroit Pistons

The Pistons resisted making major changes this offseason after losing their third consecutive Eastern Conference Finals, meaning that they will enter this year with basically the same club as last year.  This may be the last go-round for the veteran starting five of Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess, and anything short of another title will definitely mean the end of their time together.  Rodney Stuckey emerged late last year and in the playoffs as the obvious heir-apparent to Billups, and he will only get better this year, along with high-energy reserve Jason Maxiell.  Detroit is even taking a shot at salvaging the career of another guy with talent who hasn’t worked out anywhere else with Kwame Brown, a task they’ve excelled at in the past.  But Brown may be their toughest challenge of all.  I believe that some of the same motivators that helped the Celtics last year will work for the Pistons this year.  I expect Detroit to jump out early and end up with the best record in the East, possibly the entire league.  The Pistons major problem ever since winning the title in 2004 has been a lack of focus in the playoffs, losing games they shouldn’t have and consistently digging themselves into holes they couldn’t always climb out of.  This year, I think they keep their focus and return to the NBA Finals after a three-year absence.

So that’s how I see the Eastern Conference going into this year.  As always, there will be trades, injuries and unexpected performances, both good and bad, that will change the makeup of the conference.  But right now, this is how I see it ending up.  Next, the bottom five in the West.

Continuing on with my preseason look at the Eastern Conference, here are teams 6 through 10.  Last season, three teams at .500 or worse made the playoffs.  That is not going to happen again.  I believe it’s going to take 42-45 wins to get into the post season this year.  All five of these teams have the capability of getting that done.

10.  Toronto Raptors

Toronto is a trendy pick to move up in the East after trading for Jermaine O’Neal, but I just can’t bring myself to believe that he’ll stay on the floor all season, or be the kind of player he was five or six years ago.  That being said, the Raptors were just 41-41 last season.  They might actually have a better record this year and still miss the playoffs.  I like the move to clear out T.J. Ford and hand the full time point guard reins to Jose Calderon.  I expect him to end up in the top five in the league in assists, averaging double figures.  This team’s main drawback is a total lack of interior strength.  Their best big guys, Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani and O’Neal, all play small, and that will kill them in the end.  Still, they should be in playoff contention, coming up just short.

9.  Milwaukee Bucks    

I liked the Bucks chances better before they traded Mo Williams.  They did land Luke Ridnour in the deal, but he has been nothing short of miserable the past couple of years playing on really bad Seattle teams.  If he can regain some of the form he showed a few years ago when Seattle reached the second round of the playoffs, the Bucks will have an excellent shot of landing a playoff spot, and possibly making some noise when they get there.  With Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd, Charlie Villanueva, Andrew Bogut and explosive rookie Joe Alexander, he’ll have plenty of chances for assists, but a rejuvenation is far from secure.  If he can’t get it back together, Milwaukee will be in major trouble at the point, and that will cost them a chance at postseason play.  I’m guessing Ridnour will be solid yet unspectacular and the Bucks will miss the postseason by a hair, possibly going down to the final day of the season.

8.  Atlanta Hawks      

After years of futility, the Hawks finally broke through and nearly pulled the greatest upset in NBA playoff history, taking a Celtics team that was almost 30 games ahead of them in to standings to a game seven.  Just having Mike Bibby on the floor for a full season should be enough to get them over .500.  And it’s a distinct possibility that Marvin Williams will blossom now that Josh Childress is playing in Greece, Al Horford will take a step up into All Star territory and Josh Smith will move into superstar range.  And that’s not even mentioning Joe Johnson, who is still Atlanta’s best player.  Depth is the main concern, I think.  An injury or two that causes key players to miss significant time will derail the entire season.  My guess is they will be better right out of the gate this year, and two of the three key young guys will step up their games, crashing the post season for the second year in a row.  The short bench will be their downfall, however.  The Hawks are a year and a few shrewd personnel moves away from legitimate contention.

7.  Washington Wizards      

This is kind of a difficult team to figure.  They may have been better off letting Gilbert Arenas walk and spending that money elsewhere, but they gave him an enormous contract despite missing nearly the entire season with an injury, and the team performing very well without him.  Caron Butler, if he can stay away from the injuries that have hurt him throughout his career, looks to be a guy blossoming into a genuine star, and with Brendan Haywood looking like an actual player for the first time in his career and young big guy Andray Blatche looking as though he has a nice upside, the Wizards won’t be just the same old run and gun team.  Look for some of the toughness they displayed in the Cleveland series to carry over into this year, and winning home court advantage in the first round is a possibility.  But I expect they will again have some injury issues that will cost them a few games, and Agent Zero’s new contract will look even worse by the end of the season.  They’ll probably just be happy if they don’t have to face LeBron James and the Cavs in the first round again.

6.  Chicago Bulls       

This is the team I think will move up the most in the East.  Remember, just two seasons ago, Chicago swept the defending champions in the first round, before last season’s catastrophe, led by a disgruntled and massively overrated Ben Gordon.  From all reports, Gordon is done as a Bull, and to me, that is definite addition by subtraction.  It would have been an enormous mistake to pay him $10 million per year.  Chicago is much better off giving the bigger and more defense-minded Thabo Sefolosha more minutes than dealing with the streaky, much-too-small, defenseless Gordon any longer.  The main reason I think the Bulls will move into the playoffs is that I don’t think their roster is done.  I suspect there may be a major move coming up sometime this season.  The Bulls still have an abundance of pieces to package together, and their inability to put together deals for Pau Gasol, Kevin Garnett or any other quality player over the past few seasons has held this team back.  This year, I believe they get it done.  With the right deal, they could move up even higher.  I expect a slow start as Derrick Rose learns the pro game, but a strong finish, and a reconstituted team that could possibly pull a major upset come playoff time.

Next Up:  Top Of The Heap

 

I’m excited.  The NBA season is almost upon us, and after all of the player shifting, wheeling and dealing, I thought I’d run down my list of the best teams in each conference from the bottom up in sets of five.  I’ll start with the inferior but improving East.  Here are my bottom five clubs.  None of these teams will even sniff a playoff spot, and four of the five could well be competing for the top pick in next year’s draft.

15.  New York Knicks

Finally, the long reign of terror known as Isiah Thomas has ended.  Mike D’Antoni takes the helm of one of the least talented teams this side of Oklahoma City.  D’Antoni intends to instill his run and gun style of play but this isn’t Phoenix and Chris Duhon is most definitely not Steve Nash.  There are a few useful players on the roster, but the big-time talents are notoriously lazy.  And other than rookie Danilo Gallinari, nobody in this group has any real upside in their games beyond what they’ve already shown.  I would be very surprised if D’Antoni can coax more than 25 wins out of this bunch.  Most likely, this will be one of those dreaded rebuilding seasons that starts poorly, leads to a player purge and ends with a top five lottery pick.  D’Antoni might get a little bit of a pass from the fickle New York fans as long as the team at least plays with energy and enthusiasm while continuing to reshape the roster and shows some kind of promise for the future, but the Knicks ground up a Hall Of Fame coach like Larry Brown after just one season, it will be interesting to see how long D’antoni hangs around if this ends up as a Heat-like 15-67 type of year, and it just might.

14.  New Jersey Nets

When looking at the Nets roster, the first question that comes to mind is, “who is going to score points for these guys?”  Other than Vince Carter and Devin Harris, there are no offensive players on this team.  I fully expect them to be amongst the lowest scoring teams in the league, if not the lowest.  Maybe Yi Jianlian will show some of the promise that he came into the NBA with and maybe Brook Lopez and/or Chris Douglas-Roberts will become a rookie sensation.  Maybe not.  The Nets have a better chance of landing the number one pick than they do of getting within 15 games of a playoff spot, and that’s in the East where 37 wins got it done last season.  With all the talk about the Nets and the Knicks being the lead contenders in the LeBron James sweepstakes two offseasons from now, I have a hard time believing that rosters this poor are going to improve enough to attract what will probably be the best player in the game at the time, no matter how much money they have to offer.  The only real question for the Nets this season is how long will it be before they find a taker for Vince Carter.

13.  Miami Heat

My first inclination with the Heat was to put them higher up on the list, but does any team in the league have less depth than Miami?  They are no more than an injury away from ending up with another sub-20 win season.  Dwayne Wade has looked fantastic in International play this summer and looks like he might be back to the player he was two years ago, but he had better have some wide shoulders, not to mention healthy ones, to carry this team.  The only chance they have to get anywhere near the playoffs is if they stay healthy all year and Michael Beasley turns in a Rookie-Of-The-Year type of campaign.  And even then, that last playoff spot had better be in the 37-win neighborhood again or it will be out of reach no matter what.  That’s not to say that the Heat won’t have a big impact on this season’s playoffs.  I expect that both Shawn Marion and Udonis Haslem will be suiting up elsewhere by the end of the season.  Look for another poor start despite big numbers from Wade, and another top five lottery pick added to the mix next year.

12.  Charlotte Bobcats

If nothing else, it will be fun to watch Larry Brown pull out what’s left of his hair trying to deal with Raymond Felton as his point guard.  If the players don’t just tune out his constant complaining and backstabbing like they did in New York, Brown will most likely get Charlotte playing solid defense behind Emeka Okafor, but points may be hard to come by.  I recall seeing bunches of criticism lobbed at Orlando a few years back for taking a high school kid with the top pick in the draft over the four-year college national champion Okafor, but that decision turned out to be a franchise-defining one in the wrong direction for Charlotte.  Had Orlando gone for the college experience over the potential talent, Dwight Howard would be suiting up in Okafor’s place, and the Bobcats would be an up and coming club in the East.  Instead, they’ll just continue to tread water in the lower third of the conference.  Maybe Brown has one last magic trick in his bag (and he had better to avoid doing ever-lasting damage to his reputation after the combo of the Kincks debacle and Olympics failure) and can get the Bobcats to play over their head, but it’s more likely that 30 wins will be about as good as it gets and a new point guard will be suiting up next year, if not sooner.

11.  Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are one of those teams I don’t quite know what to make of.  Part of me thinks that, if they can find the right combination of players, they can be decent.  But another part of me looks at the makeup of this club and thinks, “these guys suck.”  The last I checked, Jamaal Tinsley is still on the roster and, in my opinion, is still the best point guard on the team, even after adding T.J. Ford and Jarrett Jack, but he has proven time and again that he can’t stay on the floor, and I expect he’ll be elsewhere soon.  Mike Dunleavy actually looked like a player last season for the first time in his career, but don’t be surprised if he regresses a bit this year.  Still, there is enough talent here that the Pacers should be better than the other four teams on this list, but that’s not saying much.  If they get to 35 wins, they should be happy.  There are many more parts needed here before the Pacers get back to playing at the level they did in the ‘90s.  But on the plus side, they won’t be let down by Jermaine O’Neal anymore.

Next up:  The Middle of the Road

So the U.S. finished off its redemption and once again topped the world in the Olympics for the gold medal.  Before I start ranting here, let me say, I think it's great.  We've got the most talent in the world, had by far the deepest team in the tournament and are back where we belong, at the top. 

But, to me, the one negative in all of this is the continued celebration and idolization of Mike Krzyzewski.  It may not be the politically correct thing to say, but I absolutely, unabashedly hate that arrogant SOB.  Now, admittedly, I'm a Maryland Terp fan, and if there is one program in the country above all others that we, as Terp backers, can't stand, it's Duke.  Maryland could go 2-14 in the ACC, but as long as those two wins are against the Blue Devils, it's a successful season.  Some would say we're just jealous, but  we've got a more recent National Championship Banner than Mr. Gold Medal Coach does. Hah!

Maybe I'm biased (yeah, just maybe) but I've always felt that Coach K was one of the most over rated coaches in the country.  Don't get me wrong, he's a great recruiter.  Over the past 20 to 25 years, he's brought in as much or more talent as any program in the country.  But his teams have a tendency of falling flat when the big game comes around.  It started early on with upset losses year after year in the Final Four before finally breaking through in 1991 with a team loaded with talent that upset a then-undeafeted UNLV team that had stomped the Blue Devils the year before.  I'm not usually one for conspiracy theories, but I have no doubt that UNLV threw that game.  The photo that circulated later of the Running Rebels best players hanging out in a hottub living it up with a notorious gambler and game fixer was all the evidence I needed.

They won again in 1992, but only after beating Kentucky on a miraculous buzzer beater by Christian Laettner that was helped by the fact that the clock didn't start ticking off the 2.2 seconds left in the game until Laettner had caught the ball, came down to the floor, dribbled once and spun to face the basket.  I think Kentucky fans will tell you that those were the longest 2 seconds in the recorded history of mankind.  Duke violated the laws of Quantum Mechanics to win that game.

Coach K got his third title in 2001, a particularly painful one for me to see at that.  My Terps pulled a (gasp) choke of epic proportion against the Blue Devils in the Final Four, blowing a 22-point lead.  Basically, my point is that Duke shouldn't have won any of those titles, and Coach K should still be the coach who can't win the big game.  He lost his other four NCAA finals.

But even at that, the Blue Devils played the game right.  They had great point guards, played a solid inside-out game and always played defense.  But sometime in the mid '90s, that changed.  The Duke teams of the last decade or so consistently play soft, regardless of personnel, and have a tendency to jack up tons of ill-conceived threes.  Sometimes, when they're making them, it works, but against genuinely good teams, it doesn't.  That's why the Duke teams of today aren't really legitimate championship contenders, despite consistently high seeds and ridiculous regular season records.  Coach K seems unwilling or unable to get his teams out of this trend, ever since 1993, when he let notorius gunner Jeff Capel run wild without consequence, throwing up shots that even Allen Iverson would think twice about taking.   Since then, Duke has been known more for producing an array of vastly over-rated shooting guards, from Capel to Trajan Langdon to J.J Redick, than any real championship-level success.

But perhaps the worst thing of all about Coach K is his arrogance.  You'd think the guy was Patton or somebody instead of a college basketball coach.  I ran across some old video tapes the other day, and one of them was Game 7 from the Heat-Pistons Eastern Conference Final a few years ago, and during one of the commercial breaks, wouldn't you know, there was an American Express commercial with none other than Mr. All-Time Leader of Men.  At the end of the commercial, Coach K actually said, in his usual humorless tone, "I don't think of myself as a basketball coach.  I think of myself as a leader who happens to coach basketball."  Gag.  That's a helluva noble sentiment to utter, especially when you're hocking credit cards.  What a guy.

Anyway, now he's the guy who saved American basketball.  And wasn't that image of the entire team draping their medals around his neck just oh so sweet?  I know it brought a tear to my eye, despite the fact that any #### off the street could have won a gold medal coaching that team.  All the talk about how miserably Larry Brown failed in 2004 and how Coach K stepped in to get the guys to play the right way again is so much bluster.  Compare the rosters of the 2004 team and the current model.  The 2008 champions are light years better and more experienced than the ill-conceived collection of inexperience and selfishness that took the floor in 2004.

So Coach K is now an American hero.  Yah!  Just what I always wanted to see.  Now, if you'll excuse me, I've got a bad taste in my mouth.   I'll think I'll  go suck on a lemon.  I don't think I'm quite bitter enough.

So LeBron James and Kobe Bryant are on record for saying that if someone from overseas were to offer them $50 million a season, they'd bolt from the NBA.  First off, who wouldn't?  Anyone that claims they would turn down this kind of outrageous money for one season for any reason, patriotism or otherwise, is completely full of it.  It's more than double the max contract the NBA will allow under current salary cap restrictions, and it's tax free!.  Not only would they be lying, they'd be stupid. 

This has to get David Stern's knickers in a twist.  For decades now, Stern has led the way in marketing the NBA based upon its best and brightest superstar players.  If, all of a sudden, there is a significantly better financial option for these guys, do you think its just going to be one or two who split?  It's going to be a flood of the top players in the league, as long as the money is flowing from European clubs.  And the NBA slowly becomes a league sporting the best of what's left over.  I wonder if he's rethinking all of that International marketing, and the push to allow NBA'ers into the Olympics as the original Dream Team that seemed like such a good idea at the time?

Worst of all for the League is that there isn't really a damn thing they can do about it.  There's no way Stern can allow NBA teams to match this kinds of money without totally scrapping the salary cap system, and that kind of upswing in pay around the league would make owning an NBA team a massive money pit.  Not to mention that the kind of parity we saw this year would be a thing of the past.  With no salary cap, high revenue clubs would dominate every year.  This isn't baseball where one player, no matter how great he is, cannot make you a champion.  In the NBA, one player is routinely the difference between 20 wins and 50.

There are only a couple of ways for the League to even try to deal with this.  One is to let them go, stick to your principles and hope that the huge money being thrown around by foreign teams runs out.  I mean, when you're paying one guy $50 million, that has to make it kind of difficult to turn a profit.  Business sense would have to kick in eventually, right?  Well, not if they guy writing those checks is a billionaire who spends $50 million a week on champagne, caviar and high-end escorts. 

Another is to set up some sort of punitive rules against players who choose this route.  Not sure exactly what those would be, but a buy-in to regain NBA eligibility would be an interesting  possibility.   Wanna go play in Europe, LeBron?  Okay, but when you want back into the NBA, you have to pay the League 40% of the money you earned over there, up front.  Otherwise, it was nice knowing you.  This wouldn't work either, and is probably illegal, but Stern has played hardball with guys in the past, and I could definitely see him try to punish guys for having the audacity of leaving his league.

Another way, and this would be more in keeping with Stern's sneaky corporate manueverings, would be to lobby for the IRS to get involved.  As it stands right now, the players keep all of this money, tax free.  Make a few well-placed bribes (sorry, we call them campaign contributions now) and change the rules and make this money taxable for U.S. citizens at something like 75% and that levels the playing field, unless they want to not just play overseas but defect as well.  Collecting a tax free paycheck is one thing, leaving the United States forever is quite another.  And they could even cloak this in rah-rah patriotism, "Keeping the best of America in America."

But probably the most effective way, and one that doesn't involve sticking it to guys who have every right to tell David Stern and his flunkies to shove it and sell their unique talents to the highest bidder, is some kind of eventual merger between the NBA and the Euroleague.  Two conferences, one in this half of the world and one in that half, everyone working under the same salary structures.  That still wouldn't rule out rogue billionaires throwing around big money from lesser leagues, but it brings most of Europe's big money players (the financial kind, not the basketball kind) under the NBA umbrella and theoretically benefits all concerned, with the exception of the occasional transcendent superstar, and there's always marketing dollars out there for them, even more so with a truly world-wide league.

Any way around it, the face of the NBA is changing far more quickly than I or anyone would have anticipated.  Major changes are coming if the NBA is going to stay the best league in the world and not just a footnote to the European Championships.  The next couple of years will tell the tale.  Both Kobe and LeBron have contracts running out, and someone from overseas will make a run at them.   And it now looks like it's going to take a helluva lot more than just trading Richard Jefferson to clear salary cap space to make a run at either of them.

Okay, no more criticizing the Lakers.  Geez, you'd think I insulted people's mothers or something.  The Lakers are a lock to win 70 games this season, and they'll go undefeated through the playoffs.  Kobe Bryant is the best player in the history of sports, Andrew Bynum will be the best center in the league this year, Pau Gasol will learn to play tough and Lamar Odom will finally bring the intensity every night.  I'm a convert.  Go Lakers!

No, really, I stand by everything I've said prior to that last paragraph.  The actual games may not bear me out, but I usually have good instincts about these things.  And I am already really excited to see how this season will play out.  Especially to watch Andrew Bynum.  I haven't seen him play all that much, compared to most other guys who will be under the kind of pressure he will be this year, and I really want to see whether or not he's the difference maker a lot of people seem to think he is.  Plus, I want to watch Portland and Golden State.  The Blazers are nearly everyone's pick to rise up into the West's pecking order, and I'd like to see Greg Oden actually on the floor for a change.  I'm still undecided about how much better they will be (or if they will be better at all).  The Warriors have a completely different look and I'm very curious to see what that means on the court.  They have talent all over the place, but are young and generally defenseless.  They are one of the teams I'm most interested in seeing in games that count.

I was watching some of the playoff games from last year, most notably the Houston-Utah series, the other day,  just to refresh myself with the Rockets to make certain I hadn't gone off the deep end as some have suggested.  One thing I realized is that I have probably underestimated the Jazz.  I am admittedly not the biggest Carlos Boozer fan, and AK 47 is a tad flighty to put it mildly, but I had forgotten about guys like Corey Brewer and Paul Milsap.  I've seen Kyle Korver play a lot when he was with the 76ers, and his role as designated 3-point shooter in Utah is a perfect fit for him, especially since he has few other skills.   But Deron Williams is why I've changed my tune.  He really is exceptional.  I still think Boozer is probably the Achilles heel for the team that will bring them down in the postseason, but they are clearly better than I had previously stated, and if they can improve upon their 19-29 road record of last year (including the playoffs) they can make the West a five horse race.

Wow, is Josh Howard an ####.  I still have a little optimism (very little, and fading by the day) about the Mavericks, I don't think they are done as many have said, but real championship contention is most likely out of the question.  If Howard's random acts of stupidity force Dallas to trade him, they will get nowhere near value in return at this point.  If they dump him just to clear him out, the Mavs will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs.  Drag Racing!  What a ####.

Does anybody really like International basketball?  I've been watching some of the Team USA warm up games and I just can't get into it.  The flow of the game is off somehow.  Admittedly, the games are warm ups, maybe the actual competition will be better, but I've never really enjoyed International games all that much in the past.  I think the team might actually be too deep.  No one gets the number of minutes they probably should and that's got to affect the rhythm within their own games.   I do like the physical play on the guards, though.  I think the NBA went too far in stopping contact on the perimeter.  It seems a little hypocritical that someone in the paint can get hammered and the chances of getting a foul called are about 50/50, but if you look cross-eyed at a guard out over the three point line, it's almost always a foul.

It's just not that exciting to me.  Of course, watching an All-Star team blow people out by 50 points doesn't make for enthralling television.  Even that "hard-fought defensive struggle" against Russia that they won by 20 points wasn't particularly interesting.  I never got the feeling that Russia could actually win that game.  There are probably only two or three teams that can beat the U.S., and I expect that will only happen if they get complacent in blowing people out.  I just hope the Olympics end without anyone suffering a major injury.  Can you imagine the backlash if Kobe or LeBron or Chris Paul blows out a knee somewhere along the way?  And for what?  Representing your country?  Come on, the guys in body armor, risking their lives in Iraq are representing their country.  These guys are playing in a basketball tournament on the cheap for an organization that reaps billions from "amateur" athletics and makes the NCAA look like a humanitarian group.  I can understand why NBA owners don't like their players competing in this.  Do you think the IOC or USA Basketball is going to reimburse an NBA team for their loss if someone gets hurt?  Wouldn't hold my breath. 

A couple weeks ago, I wrote that I believed that the Houston Rockets, if healthy, were a better team than the Los Angeles Lakers. Not surprisingly, I was pretty roundly criticized. Well, it appears that the Rockets have now added Ron Artest to their lineup for Bobby Jackson and a first round pick down the road (plus another throw-in guy I've never heard of). If there was any doubt in my mind before, after this, there is no question to me that Houston is not just the best team in the West, but the best team in the entire league.

Let me say that this is not without risk. Injuries will always play a role on a team with T-Mac and Yao, and Artest has been known to bring down Championship contending clubs (see Indiana). But if things cut the right way for Houston this year, something that is always essential for a team to play for a title regardless of who they are, there will be another banner hanging in the Toyota Center in 2009.

I believe that this move hurts the Lakers on a couple of fronts. One, it makes a contender for their Western Conference crown that much stronger in all the right places to give L.A. problems come playoff time. And two, I really thought that, for the Lakers to truly move to the top of the heap, they had to add someone like Artest and subtract Lamar Odom. Well, that's not going to happen now, and it appears that Lakers' GM Mitch Kupchak may be done with personnel moves. After re-signing Sasha Vujacic the other day, Kupchak was quoted as saying that if they enter next season with the roster they currently have, he'd be thrilled.

While they are clearly a very good team, in my opinion, they've fallen behind Houston and New Orleans in the West already this offseason, and it is debatable whether or not they are actually better than San Antonio, especially if the Spurs add more to their bench. And I personally am not thrilled with the front line of Odom, Paul Gasol and Andrew Bynum.

To begin with, no one really knows what kind of player Bynum will be after the injury. He may indeed come back strong and be the player he appeared to be becoming before the injury, but how well will they mesh? Bynum in the middle will push Gasol to the outside, a place he already spends way too much time. If he ends up floating around the perimeter, taking more jumpers than he already does, he's just about useless. And what about Odom? He does too much of that as well. Will he be as willing to play in the post, or just stay outside while Bynum eats up space? I really don't like this combination of players, even if Bynum is healthy. Either Odom or Gasol has to be moved to get an aggressive perimeter defender who can at least match Odom's offense. With Artest apparently off the market, someone like Tayshawn Prince might fit that role and Pistons GM Joe Dumars has repeatedly said that everyone on his roster is available.

I, for one, don't believe the Lakers, as they are currently constituted, will win the West next year. It's not like they were head-and-shoulders above everyone else last season, anyway. Favorable playoff matchups against Denver and Utah and injuries to San Antonio had as much to do with their ascendance to the Western Title as their play. And they were exposed by Boston in the Finals. Houston, with Shane Battier, Ron Artest and Luis Scola, among others, have the kind of scrappy and/or defensive minded players that gave L.A. fits. If I was Mitch Kupchak, I wouldn't be satisfied because, chances are, they're not going to find another giveaway like Gasol during the season again.

This move also wipes out any possibility that Sacramento will be playing for anything other than Lottery position next year. I thought that they could have gotten a better return for Artest than used-up reserve guard Bobby Jackson. With Denver taking a step backwards, the eighth spot in the West is up for the taking, with the newly constituted Warriors looking like they could be the team to move into that position. Portland seems to be a common favorite to rise into the post-season as well, and The Clippers will be interesting if not good. Teams like Phoenix, Dallas, even Utah may have to watch their backs. So, with the Artest trade, here's how I see the West at the moment.

1. Houston
2. New Orleans
3. L.A. Lakers
4. San Antonio
5. Dallas
6. Utah
7. Golden State
8. Phoenix
9. Portland
10. Denver
11. LA Clippers

Ok, it seems like the transaction wire in the NBA is starting to heat up with another couple of big moves today. The Clippers swiped Marcus Camby from Denver for a bag of magic beans, and The Hornets swiped James Posey from underneath the Celtics for a bag of greenbacks. Here's some first impressions.

I have to reserve judgment on the Nuggets until I see who the player is that the $10 million trade exception they received from the Clippers nets them. As long as they get a solid contributor who can play defense with that exception, this smells to me like one of those deals where a team sells on a player at just the right moment. Camby is 34, a 12-year vet with a long and storied history of injuries, but not so much in the past 5 years. If he manages to stay healthy and on the court, the Clips can get close to their money's worth for at least one season, but that's a big if in my mind, especially with the Clippers. Is there another franchise in all of sports who's been hit by catastrophic injuries to its best players more frequently than L.A.'s junior team? The same concern exists for Baron Davis. I expect Camby will begin the decline phase of his career, even if healthy. This is a gasp move by L.A. desperately trying to make up for the loss of Elton Brand. Still, if everyone is healthy, they could be competitive but that's a long way from the post season in the crazy-deep west.

The Hornets just jumped to the top of my list of Western Conference teams with the addition of Posey, at least until the Lakers manage to haggle a deal for Ron Artest. If New Orleans was a little more seasoned last year, they would have finished off San Antonio and put on an epic Western Conference Final with the Lakers. This is a big blow to Boston, however. There is no way, zip, zero, no chance Boston wins that title without Posey. How do they replace him now? The short answer is, they don't. Boston definitely comes back to the pack some in the East. Joe Dumars must be thrilled by this defection.

A couple of minor moves made last week that I really liked caught my attention as well. Orlando signing Mickael Pietrus away from the Warriors and San Antonio signing Roger Mason from the Wizards. The Spurs desperately need fresh legs on the bench and Mason can score in bunches, plus, if Gilbert Arenas comes back healthy, his playing time in Washington was going to be very minimal. One or two more guys like this and San Antonio's back in the hunt for the top spot in the West. I really like what Orlando's done so far this offseason. Pietrus can shoot and defend and will fit in perfectly. They also drafted Courtney Lee and just signed a nice backup point guard in Anthony Johnson, potentially a big upgrade on Keyon Dooling. The Magic are going to contend seriously this year, I'm thinking Eastern Finals at least, especially with Boston's sudden issue and who knows what Detroit will do in the next couple months? It's possible that both Rasheed Wallace and Chauncey Billups will be playing elsewhere by opening day, so the Pistons might take a step back as well. With only Philadelphia (and possibly Toronto, but I have see a Jermaine O'Neal rejuvenation before believe it) making a significant upgrade among last season's playoff teams in the East so far, Orlando may just be able to snake home court in the East.

As of right now, very early though it may be, here's what I see as next year's post-season 16. Many moves to come, however, so this will probably change dramatically. By the way, I'm completely ignoring divisions, these are just the top 8 teams in each conference in my mind at the moment.

East
1. Boston (Even without Posey, but very close to Detroit and Orlando in my mind right now)
2. Detroit (Have to temper this because I think there is at least one major trade coming)
3. Orlando (I expect they'll be higher before the season starts, barring a great trade by Detroit)
4. Washington (If Arenas is healthy, Butler is a star, Jamison can score and an improved inside game with the growth of Andray Blatche. They had a winning record last year missing Arenas for almost the entire year and Butler for 24 games)
5. Cleveland (Any team that plays defense like they can and has LeBron James is going to be in the hunt come playoff time. They move up if they manage to move Wally Szczerbiak for an actual useful shooting guard)
6. Philadelphia (Got to keep Igoudala. Lose him as a restricted free agent and their playing for the eighth spot at best. Keep him and if Brand is totally healthy and on his game, they move up, maybe way up)
7. Toronto (Jose Calderon as a full time starter is going to be near the league lead in assists and Chris Bosh is an all star. Jermaine O'Neal is the difference between moving up or mediocrity. That worked out so well for Indiana in the past)
8. Milwaukee (The top 7 are pretty certain to be in, in my mind. This spot is anyone's to grab. Taking a flyer on the Bucks right now, primarily because there are so many questions and trades yet to be made with almost everyone else right now)

West
1. New Orleans (Another year under Chris Paul's belt and Robert Horry wannabe James Posey on the floor, almost won last year, can definitely take it this year)
2. Houston (Okay, first let me say this one has an enormous if attached to it. IF everyone is healthy come playoff time, this might be the best team in the entire league, definitely the most unappreciated. But that's a gigantic, 2-ton if)
3. L.A. Lakers (For now, but its close with San Antonio, who I still think would have beaten them if Manu Ginobli had been healthy. There will be a change coming up that could bump them up to the top)
4. San Antonio (The biggest concern I have with the Spurs is how much the new flopping rule will affect them. My guess is that the flopping rule will be just like a flop on the court, all flash and little impact. If they add some more young legs, they could be up to the top)
5. Dallas (Probably a trade coming, but I would keep Josh Howard, personally. Really, all he said was that he smoked weed in the offseason, not barbecuing small children or something. Anybody think Mark Cuban doesn't?)
6. Utah (Not really the biggest Carlos Boozer fan, probably more likely to drop them then raise them at this point. Don't be completely surprised if they miss the playoffs, the west is really deep, and remember they were pretty average in the first third of last season)
7. Phoenix (Here's another team that could miss out entirely. Nash and Shaq get their AARP newsletters delivered to U.S. Airways Arena. The more I think about the trade for Shaq, the more I can't believe someone actually got paid to be that stupid. Stoudamire is good, but Nash makes him great)
8. Portland (For now. Lots of talent, could go up or out altogether. Remember, it takes two years from microfracture surgery to get all the way back, if ever. We're not going to see 100% Greg Oden this year, even if he stays on the floor. The other competitors are hit or miss, maybe Denver with another trade, maybe the Clippers if Eric Gordon is ROY and they miss the injury bug, maybe the Warriors if Monta Ellis can handle the point and they find a new leader to replace Davis because Corey Maggette may score but he's not a leader, and don't sleep on Sacramento--they could sneak up on everyone depending on the return for Ron Artest)

Wow, did Baron Davis' dreams of a winning return to L.A. vanish quickly.  I wasn't really sold on the the Davis-Elton Brand combo as a playoff ticket anyway.  For one thing, Brand--Mr. 20 and 10 as he's being called nowadays--has made the playoffs all of once in nine seasons in a league where over half the teams make the postseason.  Admittedly, he did play with some lousy teams with the Clippers and Bulls, but everyone should know by now that a good player on a bad team always puts up inflated stats.  Would he have a career 20-10 averages on championship contenders?  I don't think so.  And his one playoff appearance was on a team led by Sam Cassell when he could still play, a bonafide winner everywhere he goes.  I mean the guy helped lead Milwaukee and Minnesota to Conference Championship Series, not to mention his three rings with Houston and Boston.  Does Baron Davis have that kind of pedigree?  Nope.

The Clippers did win a first round series that year, but they beat the Nuggets,a perpetual first round whipping boy.  And they did take a Phoenix team without Amare Stoudamire to a game seven, but came up short.   All the promise in that team quickly vanished, however, and they were back to the same old Clips.  Davis, on the other hand, has been on a handful of playoff teams in his career, but never got out of the second round either.  Last year, he played in all 82 games, but he only played in more than 60 games twice in the previous six seasons, and never more than 67.  Keeping him healthy and on the court has always been an issue.

But now, that doesn't matter.  Brand is a new Philadelphia 76er and all the talk is about how they are championship contenders now.  Well, not quite.  For one thing, let's see what kind of shape he's in after missing all but 8 games last year before we anoint them as this year's Celtics.  There's a lot of talk about the good nucleus, and how they were up and coming before signing Brand.  Well, they do have some good young talent, but they were still 40-42 last year, in a season where they clearly over-performed in a really bad conference.  They did go up 2-1 on the mighty Pistons, but we all know Detroit has a tendency to lose games in the playoffs to teams it should stomp.  Once they fell behind, Detroit crushed Philadelphia handily in the last three games.  Did the Sixers actually win those two games or did the Pistons just sleep-walk through them?  I'm guessing the latter.

Does this mean Philly will miss the playoffs?  Doubtful in the mediocre east, but not out of the realm of possibility.  First of all, they need to match whatever deal is on the table for restricted free agent Andre Igoudala, then they have to keep everyone healthy and on the court.  Even at that, I still don't see them being much better than a lower playoff seed, first round exit kind of club.  And don't expect three teams at .500 or worse making the playoffs in the East again this year, so they'd better approach 50 wins, or they could be back in the lottery themselves.

As for the Clippers, I would throw the entire check book at Josh Smith and pray that the Atlanta Hawks won't be intelligent enough to match.  Or maybe make an enormous offer sheet to Igoudala just to drive up his price for Philly.  Nothing like a little gamesmanship, just ask the Warriors, who signed away the Clippers other best player, Corey Maggette.  Outside of that, and probably even with that, it's lottery time again.

Maggette, on the other hand, showed himself to be a true loser.  He was courted by virtually every legit title contender in the league; San Antonio, Boston, Detroit, Cleveland; for mid-level exception money ($5.8 million).  Instead, he took $10 million to take Baron Davis's place in Golden State, moving from one of the league's perpetual losers to another.  Golden State does have some talent, but even coach Don Nelson admits he's going with younger players this season at the expense of victories.  Backtracking from their 48 wins of last year isn't going to get it done in a conference where the eighth seed had 50 wins, and who really knows how good Portland can be?   He could have played one year with San Antonio or Detroit on a national stage, maybe taken home a ring, and still gotten a big payday next year.  Or better yet, two years polishing a championship resume then been in position to cash in on the salary cap space left over from the LeBron James losers.  But no, he took the money today over any realistic chance for a title.  Golden State may grow into a contender in two or three years, but in the West as of now, they're still a lottery team.  I guess he just wanted to stay in his comfort zone, watching the playoffs on t.v. rather than playing in them.  But hey, at least he can afford a nice couch.

By the way, I'm really hoping the Lakers trade for Ron Artest.  Talent-wise, he'd be a perfect fit for what they need, but is the Staples Center really big enough for the egos of Kobe and RonRon?  I can't wait to see how long they can go before being at each other's throats.  And Artest's not like Shaq, who will just childishly rip someone behind their back.  He'll smack Kobe upset his head if the mood strikes him.  After all, what's more fitting than the team from Hollywood having a little drama? 

It seems like I've been hit or miss lately. Not 24 hours after I made the strong proclamation that NBA superstars never leave their teams as free agents, Baron Davis opted out of his contract with the Warriors to, most likely, sign as a free agent with the Clippers. But hey, who could have expected a guy to take a $4 million pay cut to go play for the Clippers, of all teams, especially after their best two players, Corey Maggette and Elton Brand, both opted out to become free agents themselves? Now, you can argue (as I probably would) that Davis isn't really a superstar, but he is a great player that's clearly the the face of a franchise and team leader. Close enough.

And while Brand's opt out is most likely a play for what amounts to a contract extension, Maggette is as good as gone. And it looks like Gilbert Arenas may be gone from Washington, as well, although staying is still a possibility. If this were two years ago, or even last season, Agent Zero might have made a case for being a superstar. (By the way, is Agent Zero his nickname because of the number on his jersey or the number of late May and June playoffs games he's appeared in?) Now, he's coming off of a severe injury and nobody knows if he'll be his normal explosive scoring self, so the superstar tag doesn't apply. Same for Brand. Until we see if he's actually healthy and back playing like the MVP candidate he was three years ago, he's just another big name guy looking for a comeback season.

Davis himself is usually all about injured reserve, but he actually played all 82 games last year, right up to the point that Don Nelson benched him for the second half of the last game of the season. Apparently, that annoyed Baron so much that he left money on the table in Oakland to suit up for what is quite possibly the worst franchise in all of sports. Of course, if he can somehow win leading the Clips, he'll become legendary. After all, look what leading the New Jersey Nets to two straight NBA Finals did for Jason Kidd's reputation. Before that, he was just another wife-beater with a lousy a jump shot that Phoenix couldn't get rid of fast enough.

These three guys are most likely going to take home enormous amounts of cash this off-season, but my money's on the three of them not playing 82 games next season combined. Meanwhile, Maggette may be the guy most likely to rejuvenate his career. If, as the rumor suggests, he lands in San Antonio playing with great players and a great coach, gets his head on straight and remembers how he used to play defense, he may be hoisting a trophy this time next year while the other three are hoisting a cold one while watching the playoffs on TV.

While my free agency comment was a little suspect, I did, however, suggest that eventually, a big name player was going to head overseas for the money. When I wrote it, I expected it to be a year or two or three before someone tried it, but apparently, one of the top rated incoming freshmen in the country, Brandon Jennings, is strongly considering (i.e., taking the money and running) signing overseas instead of playing for the University of Arizona next year. The NBA had better be very, very careful with how they handle this.

In my mind, given the option of going right into the NBA, the very thought of playing in Europe would never, ever have been a factor. But now, faced with a year of essentially indentured servitude to the NCAA (especially for big time talents), real hard cash and actual professional-level instruction not only will become a factor, it's most likely the best decision. Now consider, if Jennings dominates over there, presuming he goes, builds a fan base, gets some international marketing dollars, will it be all that easy to get him back? After all, he will still have the NBA rookie pay scale to adhere to.

Tiago Splitter stayed in Europe this year instead of coming to the Spurs because of the rookie scale. Guard Juan Carlos Navarro of the Grizzlies, despite showing promise and most likely lining up for a nice payday, split back to Spain, primarily because being paid in Euros is now better than being paid in dollars. I'd be willing to bet somewhere David Stern is praying Brandon Jennings is a massive flop. Otherwise, there could be big, big problems on the horizon for the NBA. Isn't Internationalism great?

Can someone explain to me why the NBA doesn't change the rules about the free agency and trade moratoriums or at least wait and hold the draft once the moratorium is up and the next year's salary cap is set?  Never did understand that.  And it could lead to more big trades on draft day, making an otherwise somewhat dull affair more exciting.   Anyway, I thought I'd look at a couple trades that I guess are official, if not formally so.  I'm sticking to trades that involved actual proven players, not just draft pick swaps, although a couple of these included draft picks.

Toronto-Indiana
The Raptors sent T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and the 17th pick of the draft (Roy Hibbert) to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal.  I guess this trade's official, although the last I heard, it couldn't be formally completed until July 1 because of some contract issue with Ford, and there was the small matter of physicals.  Indiana got rid of one highly paid major injury risk for another less-highly paid major injury risk.  They also receive a BIG center, albeit a slow, lumbering one in Roy Hibbert and another 7-footer in Nesterovic who played all of 15 minutes per game for Toronto in the playoffs.  The Pacers are remaking their roster, looking for better, more consistent guard play and more strength inside.   To me, Ford doesn't exactly scream "consistent" and, for a quick, slashing point guard, he is probably one bad fall away from it being his last.  But at least he's not Jamaal Tinsley.

Toronto gets Jermaine O'Neal, a guy who was the league's most improved player back in 2002 and a three time All-NBA player (twice on the third team and once on the second team).  Since then, he's become first team all injured reserve.  During his years in Indiana, The Pacers lost in the first round in three of their five playoff seasons, the second round once, reaching only one conference finals and O'Neal didn't exactly develop a reputation as a prime time player in big games.  Still, if he's healthy and motivated (both enormous if's) he could form a frightening combo with Chris Bosh.

Basically, it's a risk-reward move for Toronto.  If it pays off, they've made a big step up in a weak conference.  If it doesn't, all they gave up was an unwanted draft pick, a backup center and a point guard they pretty clearly no longer wanted or needed.  Indiana really should have traded O'Neal two or three years ago when they might have gotten something a little more useful in return.  Toronto wins this one, whatever happens.

Indiana-Portland
In this one, Portland sent the 13th pick in the draft Brandon Rush and Jarrett Jack to Indiana for Ike Diogu and the 11th pick in the draft Jerryd Bayless.

Indiana did a little better this time, but now they've got two point guards.  I'd bet they'll play much like Toronto did with Ford and Calderon, rotating quarters.  Brandon Rush has a shot to be pretty good though. 

Portland gets a little help inside with Diogu, if he gets off the bench, something that didn't happen very often in Indiana and something that's not guaranteed with Portland's depth of talent, and the guy they wanted in Bayless.  Not really sold on Bayless as point guard, but with Brandon Roy, he won't need to be and he can score.

A trade of middling reserves and draft picks with potential who may or may not pan out.  I'll call it even until I see what kind of players Rush and Bayless turn out to be.  Both guys could be hit or miss in my mind.

Milwaukee-New Jersey
Milwaukee sent Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons to New Jersey for Richard Jefferson.  Wow, a trade with no draft picks.   Straight up NBA players for NBA players.

New Jersey continued dumping salary in an effort to be in position to nab LeBron in a couple years.  It seems like a foregone conclusion that LeBron is out of Cleveland, and most of the speculation about his NBA future is the Knicks and Nets, with both clubs taking steps to make that a reality.  To me, it's a pretty dangerous move.  I seem to recall the Chicago Bulls and some other teams a few years ago doing the same sort of preparation to sign a big-time upcoming free agent playing for a small market club who was thought to  be available, Tim Duncan.  Needless to say, it didn't happen.  Duncan re-upped and those clubs counting on him were left out in the cold.  In this day and age, NBA superstars never leave their teams as free agents.  Trades maybe on occasion, but never as free agents.  Don't count on this happening, either.  But that doesn't mean that Vince Carter shouldn't be packing his bags, as well.

Yi has potential and wasn't really happy in Milwaukee anyway.  A move to the Nets (soon to be Brooklyn) gives him the bright lights he wanted.  Can he perform?  Bobby Simmons was the most improved player a few years back with the Clippers before signing a big free agent deal that has never panned out.

As for the Bucks, with Jefferson, they've got some talent on their roster.  Barring further moves (like a trade of Michael Redd) I wouldn't be surprised to see them in then playoffs in the east next season.  Not really a contender, though.

Unless Yi lives up to the initial hype, or they actually do land LeBron later on, the Bucks win this one.

I was going to say something poignant about the trade between Minnesota and Memphis that sent Mike Miller to the Timberwolves with draftee Kevin Love and salary throw ins for draftee O.J. Mayo and salary throw ins.  All I can say is Memphis had better hope Mayo is a superstar in the making because they gave up a solid NBA player in Miller and top 5 draft pick for him.  Of course, there may be a reason why the Grizzlies have never won a playoff game, let alone a series.  I'm sure Pau Gasol would agree.  But hey, Marc Gasol's coming next year and he's gonna make that Laker trade look like it wasn't just flat-out theft.  Right?

Now that I've watched the first round of the NBA Draft, and read a bunch of the draft winners and losers columns,  I think I've concluded on an easy way to wrap up this draft:  They're all losers.  I'm not really excited about anybody in this draft class.  I have a feeling that in a few years, we'll be talking about this draft class in the same breath with the 2000 draft as the worst since the lottery. 

If you listen to the analysts, every player in this draft was a monster, everyone has a wingspan 8 inches longer than their height, everyone is either a freakish athlete or a smart player with a high basketball I.Q.   Just once, especially late in the second round, I'd like to see Jay Bilas or somebody say, "You know, this guy just sucks.  He's slow, plays no defense, has horrible shot selection.  Sure, he scored 20 points per game on the last place team in the SEC, but he had to fire up 30 shots a game to do it."  How can everybody in the draft be a superstar in the making?  Obviously, they all have some skills or they wouldn't even be considered, but come on, most of these guys out of the top 15 or 20 have just average skills.  Stop talking them up like they can all be Hall of Famers.

In five years, if there's more than a half dozen guys out of this draft making a major impact on an actual contending team, I'll be surprised.  There are a few guys who'll probably put up big numbers on perpetual lottery teams (I'm looking at you, OJ Mayo) but those guys are basically useless if you want to win.

How good will Derrick Rose be?  Who knows, but does it matter?  A team led by an elite point guard hasn't won a title since Isiah Thomas in 1990, 18 years ago!  All this talk of needing an elite point guard is so much BS.    And don't try to tell me that Tony Parker is a point guard.  LeBron James is more of a point guard than Tony Parker is.  Don't get me wrong, Parker's great and his game is perfectly suited for championship contention, but he's not a pure point guard.

How good will Michael Beasley be?  An undersized power forward.  For some reason, the name Kenyon Martin comes to mind.  It's also a bad thing, in my mind, if you're a guy coming into the draft and there's more than one person out there comparing you to Derrick Coleman.  Sure, Coleman had skills, but is there a better example of a waste of superstar talent than Coleman?  Probably, but he'd be in the argument any way around it.   Plus, Pat Riley doesn't like him.  You could tell by the look on his face as he was doing an interview after the pick.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a trade at some point soon if anyone comes calling.

Both these guys have an abundance of talent, and in the right situation with the right guidance and the right attitude, they could be stars.  I think Beasley has a better chance if he stays with the Heat because of Riley and Dwayne Wade.  But Rose coming into a dysfunctional situation with a first-time-at-any-level head coach?  Has anyone ever wasted their potential as much as the Bulls have over the past three years.  They were overloaded with sought-after talent and high draft picks thanks to the Knicks.  It looked like all the pieces were in place for a trade or two for an established veteran to pair with some youth and be a contender.  But they did nothing useful, except dumping Tyson Chandler (who just helped the Hornets to the second best record in the West) for P.J. Brown (who just helped the Celtics win a title) and J.R. Smith (who now scores points in bunches off the Nugget bench), and that trade was useful to everyone involved but the Bulls.  What a waste.  A 19-year old point guard's gonna clean this mess up?  Unless he's got a post up game I haven't seen, good luck to him.

I guess the draft is all about possibility and potential.  But I'm just not feeling this one at all.  Usually, there are a handful of guys that I feel like have a chance to be solid pros and possibly stars, but I don't see it with any of these guys.  I'm sure somebody will pop up and become a good player, but I'm guessing its not going to be the Kevin Love's, Russell Westbrook's or the token-Italian-guy-drafted-by-Mike-D'antoni.  (It is reassuring to see that, no matter who's running the Knicks, they still know how to screw up a draft.)  After all, the best player out of the 2000 draft by far was second round pick Michael Redd.

My guess is that a small school, relatively unknown player's going to have a bigger impact that the big name, primetime school guys.  (Say, Courtney Lee for instance).  Anyway, I guess we'll all just have to wait and see.

Converting to Euros

I was reading the NBA rumors this morning, trying to absorb all of the trade talk when I read one particular piece of news that could signal trouble brewing down the road.  Previously, I mentioned my dislike for the age limit, but I hadn't considered the financial repercussions thoroughly.  The news item was about Brazilian forward Tiago Splitter reneging on his agreement to join the San Antonio Spurs next season in favor of a four year extension with his current team, Tau Ceremica of the Euroleague, primarily because they can pay him several times what the NBA's rookie pay scale would allow.

Now consider, you're a LeBron James or a similarly gifted young American coming out of high school.  Your choices are play in the NCAA for peanuts, sit out a year and wait for the NBA (two years soon, if David Stern has his way and increases the age limit) or go play in the Euroleague right now for big bucks.  And after your initial contract with a Euroleague team is up, even if you're a star, you will still have to be restricted by the NBA rookie cap to come back home.  And that doesn't even consider that, in the Euroleague, you'll get paid in Euros, which are currently running pretty strong against the dollar.

What's to stop the best and brightest of American basketball youth from bolting overseas?  Patriotism?  And how difficult will it be to get them back in the NBA with the rookie wage scale?  How many stars will it take before Euroleague ball starts to compare favorably to the NBA in quality of play and competition?  It would be a bit ironic if David Stern's emphasis on international marketing of the game created a competitive market where the NBA would suffer, similar to what happened to the NFL in the early '80s with the USFL plucking stars, including several eventual Hall of Famers, right out of college.  The rookie wage scale could be a problem with NCAA stars, as well. 

As it is now, bolting overseas is seen as a last ditch effort by players who want to continue their careers but can't get on an NBA roster.  Most high schoolers and college players don't even consider the option.  But if it becomes more difficult to even get into the league, and can take up to five years from high school graduation to get paid what you're actually worth, that option may not stay with just fringe players.  A big-name talent, someone weighing these options, is going to open that door eventually and take the money.  And my guess is it will happen soon.  And when America's best start to spurn the NBA to go overseas, how long will it be before the international players that pepper NBA rosters today head back to their homes?  Now, the NBA is unquestionably the best league in the world, and everyone who's anyone wants to play with the best.  What happens when that designation is no longer so clear cut?

Stern would do well to carefully consider his decisions on these issues and cut it off before it becomes a possible nightmarish reality for the League, or we soon could be forced to watch late night feeds from Europe to see the best basketball in the world.

MVP: Most Valuable Player or Most Valuable Postseason?

It seems like nearly every year, the NBA's MVP voting would turn out remarkably different if it were held after the playoffs instead of after the regular season.  How many people still would have voted for Dirk Nowitzki last year after the Mavericks' historic collapse in the first round?  This year's MVP Kobe Bryant has a much stronger case after taking his team to the Finals, but, in my opinion, he wasn't a clear cut runaway with the award in the first place.  Not to say he didn't deserve it, I would have voted for him after the regular season, but why should the league's MVP award be given out before the most important and meaningful games of the season are even played?  Yes, there is the Finals MVP Award, but that discounts the performances of all of the players whose teams didn't reach the finals, a result often dictated by the relative strength of their supporting casts rather than any individual performance.

In my opinion, the MVP was a four-man race this year.  Here is how I would have voted after the regular season:

Player                             Points          Assists           Rebounds          Steals          Blocks
1.    Kobe Bryant            28.3               5.4                  6.3                        1.84            0.49      
2.    Chris Paul               21.1             11.6                 4.0                        2.71             0.05
3.    Kevin Garnett          18.8               3.4                  9.2                        1.41            1.25
4.    LeBron James       30.0                7.2                  7.9                        1.84            1.08   

Now,  after watching the playoffs, I've rearranged my thinking a bit.  I had LeBron 4th primarily because his team only won 47 games.  And Kobe beat out Chris Paul primarily because the Lakers beat out the Hornets for the top spot in the west.  And I wasn't yet a believer in the Celtics defense as the best in the league, despite 66 wins, so Garnett's efforts were downgraded a bit in my mind.

Now, it's pretty clear that both Chris Paul and LeBron James did more with less than Kobe Bryant (significantly less, in LeBron's case).  Garnett really did completely change Boston's approach, being instrumental in making them a truly excellent defensive team.  And Kobe led the way for a Laker team that handily beat the Nuggets, Jazz and Spurs on the way to the finals. 

But I suspect, had Manu Ginobli been healthy and his normal self, the Lakers might not have won that series with the Spurs.  Three of the four losses could have gone either way, despite some pretty miserable play from San Antonio, and the Spurs won the one game where Ginobli did look healthy pretty handily.  Against Boston, Kobe seemed to get worse as the series went on, as most of his teammates shrank as well, and did a disappearing act for long stretches of games 5 and 6.  Some of that was Boston's defense, but I think some of it was Kobe being too willing to launch long jumpers rather than find a way to adjust to the defense.

Chris Paul and the Hornets rolled through Dallas in the first round, and looked like they were going to do the same to San Antonio before the Spurs dug deep and fought to win the series in 7.  Their efforts against the Spurs sapped some of the juice from San Antonio's aging or ancient legs, making them further vulnerable to a much fresher Laker team that had cruised relatively untested through the first two rounds.  Paul's final assist of the playoffs was in wearing down the Spurs for the Lakers to take advantage.

I had only seen the Celtics a handful of times in the regular season, but after watching all 26 postseason games they played, it