When it is all said and done, who really knows anything about NFL Draft Day? Reggie Bush was supposed to go first in the draft but instead the Texans take Mario Williams. Leinart was supposed to go to the Titans and reunite with his former USC Offensive Coordinator Norm Chow, but instead he slides way down in the draft barely making the top ten. Vince Young stays in the top three while Jay Cutler is picked up by the Denver Broncos at the 11th hour. There was huge speculation that the Jets would take Matt Leinart as well because he fit into the New York scene so well during the Heisman Trophy celebration weekend. So what does all this mean? Did Texas make a mistake? How about the Titans? Should the Jets have taken Broadway Matt?

Let me begin by saying that all of my commentary on this subject is that of a rank amateur. I have never worked for an NFL franchise in any capacity. That is not to say that I do not have any knowledge of football on the college and professional levels. From the friendly confines of my living room, I have been fortunate enough to scout out talent every Saturday and Sunday for the past 30 seasons. On rare occasions, I will travel to a game that interests me, (When one of my students or parents gives me free tickets). The utterances you are about to hear come from a seasoned veteran, an armchair quarterback of enormous magnitude.

The only thing we know for sure about the outcome of this past weekend’s draft is that no one knows for sure how any player will do in the NFL.  Some of the highest rated talent ends up dropping out of the league in one or two years. Then other unnoticed talent rises to the top.  There are so many factors which go into a successful NFL career of which these are but a few:

     1. You need to be relatively injury free which in and of itself is a crapshoot at best. One bad hit and your career can be over. Off the field antics can also cause a career that should have been All-Star to be nonexistent. Remember Kellen Winslow Jr.? He was the highly touted Tight End out of Miami who was drafted number six by the Cleveland Browns. In his first season he suffered a broken leg in his second game and missed the entire season. Then, he got into a motorcycle injury during the offseason and missed his entire second season. Who knows if he will turn into the HOF tight end he was predicted to be.

     2. Being drafted by a quality franchise will make a player much better than his draft selection and being drafted by a poor franchise will turn a great prospect into a bust. I am firmly convinced Ricky Williams turned to drugs due to his early beginnings in New Orleans. Had he been drafted by Dallas or Indianapolis he might still be playing. Any player drafted by New England seemingly turns into an All Pro and any player that is drafted by Detroit or New Orleans might as well hear the death nell.

     3. You must receive playing time. This is a factor of the depth of the team, injuries to existing players, and the philosophy of the coach that drafted you. Jason Campbell still sits on the bench in Washington while Eli has played most of every game last year. At some point and time if a player is to develop into a star, he must be given playing time.

     4. You must have talent and the ability to adapt. If it takes a player years to learn a system, then either he failed miserably on the Wonderlic, or he is really not teachable. Michael Vick is a prime example of a player who has received ample playing time to develop into the glowing superstar he was predicted to become, but he has not. Either he can not adapt to Mora’s West Coast style offense or he is incapable of doing so. No matter how you look at it, he has not lived up to his expected potential as determined by his status in the draft. Joey Harrington is another QB who comes to mind. He has not lived up to his potential and yet he has played most of the past four seasons.

     5. You need some talent around you. This point can not be overemphasized enough. Everyone points to great players and throws out stats like they were beads in Mardi Gras, but ignores that for every TD throw by a QB there was TD catch by someone else. For every TD run made by a RB, there were blockers doing their job and a QB who may have opened up running lanes by passing for 3000 plus yards. Edgerrin James has had several wonderful years dashing around for 1500 yards the past two seasons. This task seems phenomenal until you consider how far the safeties and cornerbacks have to play off the line to prevent Peyton from throwing for 6 TD’s a game. It is bad enough that he torches them for 3 or 4 a game. For every TD pass Joe Montana made, he had a Jerry Rice or a Dwight Clark on the receiving end and he had Roger Craig in the backfield. While Troy Aikman was passing to Michael Irvin, Emitt Smith was winning rushing titles for the Cowboys. Every great player seems to have talent in the other key positions which allows him to excel. Big Ben succeeded this year because he had a Jerome Bettis and a Randle El.

     6. You can not underestimate the tutelage o####ood coach. Brady has Belichick.  Peyton has Dungy.  Elway had Shanahan.  Marino had Shula.  Good coaching and winning go hand in hand.

Draft Day Winners

Tennessee Titans:   They were not only fortunate enough to sign the multi-talented Vince Young, but they were also able to steal LenDale White who had dropped into the second round. The Titans will need a replacement for Air McNair in the near future, assuming they let him return to work, and Jeff Fisher is the one coach who will not be afraid to let Young utilize all of his weapons. Unlike Michael Vick, who has a coach that is trying to morph his star into something he is not, a pocket passer, Vince will be able to pass or run at will. In fact, he may be forced to run if the Titans do not improve the offensive line. If the coaching staff under Norm Chow incorporates the play action with LenDale White, it will also keep those lineman at bay long enough for Vince to work his magic.

New Orleans Saints:  They landed the best offensive player in the draft, Reggie Bush, and they signed Drew Brees in the off season. In Bush, Brees has a player like Ladainian Tomlison. He can catch the ball or run it. It gives the Saints several offensive weapons and they should be able to score with any team. The Saints should make it to the play offs automatically, but then again that violates my rule number two at the top; to be successful you must be drafted by a quality franchise. The Saints have a reputation of taking great talent and losing. Bush and Brees need to become the Killer B’s, if they want to be a part of that number, when the Saints go Marching In!

Jets:  They picked up a solid QB in case Pennington goes down again, which he will, and they also landed D’Brickashaw Ferguson, ( I just had to type that name once because it is a great name for an Offensive Lineman).  Not only did they get some protection for Chad, but a replacement in case he is injured on the way into work; Smart move by this franchise.

 

Draft Day Losers

Houston:  This one is hard for me to admit because I think Mario Williams will be a great pick for them on defense, but landing a Reggie Bush is a once in a lifetime opportunity. You take that pick when it is offered to you. They chose not to and did not get anything in return for it. If they never intended to use it on Bush, they should have traded the number one pick to someone else and picked up several more picks. They essentially wasted the potential for this year’s number one spot in the draft.

Green Bay:  I like their acquisition of A.J. Hawke, but what were they thinking when they brought in Charles always injured Woodson. This was perhaps the biggest waste of money for a small market team, but I guess they figured they need to spend that extra 10 million they will receive from the revenue sharing.

I am sure there are other winners and losers in the draft but these were the ones I have chosen to highlight. I think the Colts will get solid playing time out of Addai from LSU and I think San Francisco did well in taking Vernon Davis. Many teams did not have gaping holes to fill and therefore there draft picks may seem innocuous.  Dallas comes to mind with their pick of Skyler Green and Kansas City with Brody Croyle.  No one really knows who will turn out to be a bust or who will blossom into the next Antonio Gates but it is fun to make predictions.

It seems with the results of Young’s Wonderlic test becoming national headlines that a plethora of blogs have come out condemning Vince and attacking his intelligence as well as his education at the University of Texas.  Some of the criticism seems a bit over the top and I can not say that I agree with every post on Vince, but I do have an opinion of my own, as usual, and I would be remiss not to share it with the blogging community.

First, let me say that no matter what his score was on the Wonderlic, I do think he has hurt his draft status by not attending the NFL combines.  I do not know the true reasons he decided to skip and that in and of itself may hurt him, but in my mind there is no reason not to attend.  It has been said that he missed because he had nothing left to prove or that his college numbers should be enough for anyone.  While this should be true, the fact is that those who do attend get to be seen that much closer to the draft and make a case to move in front of you.  Jay Cutler is a case in point.  He has moved up considerably in the draft and if someone moves up, someone moves down.  It might be Vince that is moving down and for every spot that a player moves down, he loses money in signing bonuses and in salary.  Also if you are not going to go to the NFL combines, why go to those silly skills challenges where again you may hurt your chances if you have a poor showing. Be consistent at least in not showing anybody anything unless it is in private work out sessions like the NBA players do.  

As to the Wonderlic, I took a portion of the mock test today on AOL and scored a 4 out of 4 and then went on to look at the mock exam and I could answer every question correctly.  Now I know I am a Science/Math teacher by trade, but come on, if anyone looks at those questions and can not get at least 75% of them right then I do wonder about the degree they are receiving from any institution.  As Rush Limbaugh says, "With half my brain tied behind my back," I could score a near perfect score.   The latest headlines say that Vince’s score was not a 6, but they do not tell us what it is which leaves people to speculate.  Could it be lower than a 6?   At least his people should come out and let us know how high it is if he wants to rebuild his reputation.  The official scores are supposed to come out on all players after the NFL combines are over. 

Do I think the Wonderlic is a good indication of how well a QB will do in the NFL?  Absolutely not!  In today's game, if his physical skills are sufficient a player can rise above a poor IQ test. The plays are called in by headphone from the sideline and Vince’s talent  in running when he sees an opening should carry him on to fame and stardom.    If he can see down the field and deliver the pass to an open receiver or run when it is clear he will be a great quarterback.  He is big, strong, and I think he has a good arm.  He should do just fine in the NFL for any team except New Orleans and Detroit.  Those franchises are cursed and no one should start their NFL career there.  There has never been a successful QB start for either team.  Joey Harrington is finding that out as did Archie Manning. 

The biggest thing that worries me about Vince Young is how his reputation is already being tarnished.  He needs to take a page from LeBron James and company and sign with an agent or image company that can help him market his incredible talents.  IMG would be my pick for any young talent, but it appears right now that no one has his best interest at heart because if they did they would start trying to keep his image where it belongs, at the top of the NFL draft board.