As a response comment to last week's Stupid Female Picks, another blogger wrote something like this: "scan in your Las Vegas Betting Ticket to me and then I will show your picks some respect."
Well, you can keep that "respect" buddy! I DO THIS FOR FUN! Further, I don't need to get into my Football betting history which goes back to the early 70s, and, actually, even before that when I used to help my dad make office betting pool picks. But I have won enough and lost even more enough to know that "on any given Sunday" is the rule, not the exception that proves it. I mean, the last two weeks...the Broncos DID beat the Bucs even though I said they wouldn't, and the Jets DID beat the Cards the week before that even though I said they wouldn't. And go back and read the first Stupid Female Picks, in which I opened with...
"This is an experiment."
Why? Because though football has changed somewhat--the players are bigger and faster than they used to be, there are more teams than there used to be, and thus the talent gets spread thinner (though there seems to be more of it), and college offenses/defenses have changed somewhat so thus NFL offenses/defenses have had to change somewhat...for example, back in the 60s and 70s nearly every team had a good QB. It seems now colleges aren't making them fast enough, as several of the NFL teams lack a good QB: Detroit, KC, St. Louis, Minnesota (Frerotte's a good back up, not a good starter), Oakland, Houston, and Cleveland. And it seems Miami is only competeitive now because they had the luck of grabbing the Jets' castoff, Pennington, after NY got Brett Favre. The need for a good QB, along with enough offensive and defensive talent is one of the few things that haven't changed. Formations and coaching has changed somewhat, though, and there now seems to be more room for innovation. As I said, "seems." Appearances can be deceiving.
That was why when I started "putting my money where my mouth was" back then I had to have a rational for making picks. I couldn't follow all the teams as much as I would need to, so I subscribed to "Pro Football Weekly" so I could get useful stats so I could say, "So and So's offense can beat Yadda Yadda's defense"--and guess what? "On any given Sunday." Then you have the spread, which is what the betting is based on. Only someone who very closely follows football stats and player to player matchups can (IMHO) beat the spread consistently, and thus win more money than lose. After losing enough money vs the spread (but not straight up), I had to pick my picks judiciously enough to cover the spread as well as pick the winner. So I needed more than pure numbers. This is where momentum, schedule, QB, division rivalry and good old fashioned desire come in.
As I opened last weeks picks, on paper, the Chargers are a better team than the Fins, that is, their QB is better, their receivers are most certainly better, LT is better than Brown at least by reputation (Brown, of course, has been dogged by injuries and inconsistency), and the Bolts defense is generally thought to be better than the Fins' because it consists of reliable veterans. Yet, the Dolphins won, with Porter and company stopping Chambers, then LT, at the goal line, and that innovative Wildcat offense, and Pennington--while not being Favre or Brady or (both) Mannings--has enough arm to well utilize "what may be the NFL's worst receiver corp" (to quote Fox's Marvez, or was it Schein?). And, oh yeah! the Fins just might have one of the NFLs best offensive lines since...that 1972 offensive line? (But that is a stretch; still, who is complaining about their first pick, Jake Long, now??) Finally, the Fins wanted it more last week, they had some momentum left after that delicious Pats win, and the interplay of the Fins "needing" the win over the Chargers need for the win (as they didn't know the Broncos would win later in the day). Besides, they have enough players left from that horrible 2007 team to never ever wnat to go through that again! Thus perhaps the Fins might ALWAYS feel that they "need" the win this year!
Finally, I generally tend to think that my AFC East picks will be more reliable than others' AFC East picks because I generally follow the AFC East more closely (as would any Pats, Fins, Bills or Jets fan). So far, my AFC East picks are 4-1 over two weeks, with the only loss being the Jets win over the Cards. This week, I am picking every single East team to win except the Pats, who play the Chargers. After last weeks win over the Niners, the Pats can afford to "not win"...well, not really, but now the Bolts REALLY NEED TO GET AFTER IT!
Chargers over Patriots
Perhaps Bellichick got all over Matt Cassel during the two week skein with the bye week to get his act together, and perhaps those "old" bodies got a good rest so that when they played the younger Niners they were able to outlast Nolan's crew...and Cassel looked almost as effective as Brady while Moss finally looked like Moss. Further, the interplay again--Miami had just beaten the Bolts while the Bills were getting their buffalo wings clipped by the Cards gave the Pats more motivation (after all, the NFC West IS the NFLs weakest division this year by a long shot...should the Cards falter the Niners might win by default). I had also said (in a comment on another blog) that it was foolhardy to diss the Patriots this early in the season (mostly because the Bills were unbeaten at that point). I was right: both the Bills and the Pats have the same relative records with Bills 4-1 and Pats 3-1. In fact, as the Bills are off (and they need it now big time), one would think the Pats would "need" that win to get themselves a 4-1 matching record, and thus shut up those who have so easily dismissed them. But I do not think this is going to happen. Everyone knows that the Chargers are "struggling". Everyone "knows" that the veteran defense looked "old" against the Sparano's "Wildcat" bunch last week as the Pats had looked two weeks before, so that means the Chargers are going down, right? I suspect that a good dose of the biggest motivating factor in football, revenge, will lift those "old" bodies up to play like young lions again against the team that defeated them in last year's AFC Champ game, and the Chargers, with LT's painful toes and all, will rise to the occasion.
Panthers over Bucs
If I was just coming into following the NFL now, this year, and was pre-disposed to root for an NFC team, I would go with the Panthers (there is no west Texas team to root for, and I generally go against the grain anyway, thus I wouldn't root for the Cowboys). This team is HOT. This team is consistent. This team has beaten good teams as well as bad teams. This team has a good QB that has played all season (unlike the Bucs, who have two fairly good QBs). This team has a certain rhythm (which I suspect the Bucs lack, due to QB changes). Everyone talks about the strength of the NFC East, but I think the NFC South is just as competitive (and maybe moreso). Yes, the Bucs "need" this win more, being a game behind the Panthers. Yes, the game is in Tampa Bay. Yes, Garcia is back. But will Garcia fit into the rhythm that the Bucs have developed? Will Garcia be able to develop his own rhythm this week in practice? Since I trust in Carolina's rhythm more than the Bucs, I go with the Panthers.
And the rest:
Falcons over Bears: It's in Atlanta, I like Ryan over Orton, and I am very impressed with what the Falcs did in Green Bay last week. I would say any young QB such as Orton could look like a Tom Brady against the not only winless Lions but the hopeless Lions as well, so that, although this game could go either way, I have to make a pick so I pick the Falcons.
Dolphins over Texans: Yes, I know...Miami is coming off a big win over Chargers and the Texans are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Colts. The Texans are NOT the terrible 0-4 team their record indicates, and Schaub is back (maybe), and it's in Houston. AND the Fins have NEVER beaten the Texans (plus the fact that when the Oilers were in Houston, they gave the Dolphins fits, especially in the Earl Campbell era). I can really understand why several "pickers" are picking the Texans. So here is why I am picking Miami: one, there is a DAMNED GOOD REASON the Texans lost that 17 point lead last week--Sage Rosenfels (the Fins got rid of him for a damned good reason, too), and the fact that whoever had the ball during those fumbles couldn't hang onto it! Even if Schaub plays, will their players be able to keep the ball? Will the Texans coaching staff have a fix for the Wildcat? Will the Texans OL be able to stop one of the leagues best pass rushes? And, oh yeah, the Fins are still in the running but not the Texans.
Colts over Ravens: Just when I thought the Colts were perhaps finished for the year and their defense was yucky they play like one would expect the Colts to play and overcome a 17 point deficit against Texans. Just when I thought they had no running game they come up with one. Now the Ravens are good, but when the going gets tough the tough get going, and this could be the Colts' last shot at winning this division for a long time. Just a hunch.
Vikings over Lions: Of course.
Saints over Raiders: It is crunch time for the Saints.
Jets over Bungles: Because they're the BUNGLES! ( I refuse to call the Bungles by their rightful name until they can win one!)
Redskins over Rams: Of course.
Broncos over Jaguars: It is in Denver. Living at about 6,000 feet myself, I know the importance of altitude. Since the Jags live at sea level...(and they are still all ####ed up)
Cowboys over Cardinals: If it was just Warner vs. Romo I'd pick Warner, but it isn't, so I won't.
Niners over Eagles: Because the Niners don't have players questioning everything the way McNabb does...a rule of thumb for me is never pick the team where one of its most important players is questioning the play of the rest of the team.
Packers over Seahawks: I can't believe how far the Hawks have fallen! They should have the NFC West sowed up by now! Since I can't figure out why this team is doing so poorly, I must go with the Packers, who still have a shot at their division title.
Giants over Browns: Of course. Why is a mismatch like this on Monday night? (Don't reply, I know why! The same reason the Fins aren't on this year!)
