BTD, besides the Dolphins, that is. Since I am a Fins fan do not expect me not to pick them to beat Ravens. I wouldn't pick against them if they were playing the Steelers. Or the Titans. Or anyone. But that's me, and, who knows, this might be the only wrong pick of the weekend. But I'm gonna back my team anyway! Checking the yearly stats, the Ravens are better in every category except turnover-takeaway, with Miami at + 17. The Ravens are no slouches either. And, wouldn't you know it, the primary reason Baltimore won the Oct. 17 game, 27-13, was because Chad Pennington did something he has rarely done this season: Chad threw an interception at the score of 3-3, and the Ravens didn't look back from that. And other miscues from the home team, especially on special teams. The Ravens also have more talent but I usually don't count what's "on paper." So that, all else being equal, provided Miami does not turn over the ball (they have had lots of practice at that) to a team that can easily capitalize on turnovers, and provided Chad is his usual calm, poised, leadership self...and Porter and Co. can say "hello" to rookie phenom Flacco a few times, and Bess and Ginn and Fasano can overcome the awesome Ed Reed just enough to score, then the Fins will win. And then there is the "Rodney Dangerfield" factor...the Ravens claim no one respects them, but they have nothing on the lack of respect the Fins have had to put up with all year. CB Andre Goodman, who was on that 2007 joke, has repeatedly said other teams' players have looked at this 2008 team with the same jaundiced eye as they looked at the 2007 team. Further, as the season was coming to a close, most everyone said that the Jets would win this past Sunday because the Patriots "deserved" the AFC East title over the Fins because the Pats "are better" and are "more respected, thus teams won't want to play them" (as to infer everyone wants to play "weakest link" Miami!!! I bet you the Chargers don't!!! Chargers haven't beaten Fins in Miami since the 1981 overtime thriller won by Bernichke FG in OT. Sorry Bolt but I had to say it). I've said it before and I'll say it again, loud and clear: THE DOLPHINS THRIVE ON LACK OF RESPECT!!! Keep disrespecting them! PLEASE!
That is why, in case you couldn't figure out my last post, I want every blogger who is not a Fins fan to pick the Ravens!!!
And another final thing: Revenge. Not necessarily on the Ravens because of that Oct. 17 game. No. The holdovers from that 2007 team want to beat Cam "1-15" Cameron in the worst way. Those holdovers include Porter, Holliday, Roth, Tim Allen, Jason Allen, Reinaldo Hill, Yeremiah Bell, Andre Goodman from the defense and Ronnie Brown, Ted Ginn, Dave Martin, Vernon Carey, Samson Satele, and others on offense. Nothing motivates like motivation, and if Miami wins you can chalk it up to a greater motivation.
On to the rest.
Cards over Falcons. No I'm not kidding. Again, the Falcons are a better and certainly more balanced offensively...basically, the Cards are the only playoff team with a paultry running game. One can assume that the Cards will have some difficulty stopping Michael Turner. But one can, if Atlanta's defense stats bear things out, expect Warner and the Boldin-Fitzgerald duo to do very well, well enough to overcome any kind of Atlanta lead should they not turn the ball over. Falcons are -3 in the giveaway department. But yes, it'll be close.
Eagles over Vikings. I was gonna pick the Vikes out of past love (I was a Vikes fan in the Joe Kapp era), but good golly miss molly, who in the blue blazes will their QB be? Neither Frerotte nor Jackson are likely to be effective playoff QBs, and the Adrian Peterson show is going to get old if the Vikes can't figure out another way to effectively move the ball. So based on the fact that McNabb has been effective in past palyoff games, I have to go with the Eagles...but the Vikes will win if either QB is effective and their outstanding defense makes Philly turn over the ball.
Chargers over Colts. By all rights, the Colts should win with Manning, but this is the Chargers we're talking about. I agree with Bolt Backer 21...the noise in SD will drive Manning crazy, the Chargers seem to have the Colts number, and the Philip Rivers Band appears to be peaking exactly as a playoff team should at the right time, 8-8 be damned.
And a final note to Pats and Jets fans:
Stop your whining!
So the almighty "dyansty" Patriots needed the Jets to win Sunday in order to back into the playoffs? YOU CALL YOURSELVES A DYNASTY??!!?? STOP YOUR STUPID WHINING and admit the Fins are a better TEAM (with the accent on TEAM. The "i' in the Patriots was more pronounced than the "i' in Dolphins).
So the Bretts...according to NFL GameDay..."expected" Pennington to go to the Packers in exchange for Favre and "did not want him going to Miami because Miami was so bad last year" and thus they "felt bad" for Chad after the Fins picked him up AFTER THE JETS THREW HIM AWAY...
You take the cake, Jettsies!! No wonder they call you "the Wets" in Miami! You people have excuses for everything, you CHOKERS! Imagine! Blaming Miami for their own success this year! Only from the Jets!!!
And don't get me started on the Pokes...I could write a week's worth of posts on this subject, but that would drive Hanahan crazy and we need him ready to root for the Dolphins Sunday, so I won't.
Fate. The Will of God....I had said in my last post. The Will of God, indeed, for nothing happens without HIS intervention! (But you atheists can call it FATE if you want, and don't give me that "God doesn't exist" ####-ola...denounce us Christians if you want but DO NOT SCREW AROUND WITH GOD!)
And to God's pleasure and HIS glory,
The Dolphins Moved The Dash! 1 - 15 to 11- 5!
What else can you call it when right after Favre (after Jets recover Chad's sack-fumble and score the game's first TD--with X-tra point snap #### up) throws his TD to Coles, and the Fins get it back, and, on a beautiful pass to Ginn in end zone after Chad got away from several potential sackers to throw to Fasano...and then 20 seconds or so later rookie DE Merling reads a "double screen" right for his interception TD. Fins 14, Jets 6, then 9 at the half. And, after the Jets go ahead in 3rd quarter (because Miami STILL has a couple fo speacial teams issues!), Pennington goes to Ginn again, who back tracks an underthrown pass for another beauty catch, which sets up Fasano's TD. Fins 21-17. Then it goes after a blocked punt (but not too many special teams issues!) that Carpenter FG. Fins 24-17, and just when Jets are taking it downfield for the tie, Goodman makes his 2nd interception.
In other words, the Jets played hard but the Fins played harder, with just enough flukey stuff to make the claim that God was on the side of the Dolphins this afternoon!
I'll get into comparing them with the 1970 team later this week.
And otherwise it was a great day! The Pats won but WON'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS ANYWAY! I call it KARMA (do unto others as you would have them do unto you...Matt Cassel is paying for some of the liberties the Pats took last year when they continued to run up scores on their AFC East opponents, and "spy gate"...Maybe from now on Bellichick will spend time building character, not lopsided scores. And from what I heard at the Bills game, the Pats were up to their old tricks of not getting penalites when they deserved them. As for Mangini and Favre, will they or won't they be back?
and speaking of the Jets...a great big
thank you for chad pennington!
You could have traded him, but NOOOOOOO! You threw him overboard and Miami rescued him so that he could lead them to the playoffs for the first time since 2001, and the AFC EAST title!
In other games, I am also happy because the Pokes, who give a whole new meaning to OVER-RATED, got clobbered by the Eagles and will also MISS the playoffs! Good work, Tony Romo! when you turn into Troy Aikman, let me know!
and a great big CONGRATULATIONS TO THE CHARGERS! 52-21! GOOD WORK PHIL, LT, and the rest of the team...
and you too, Bolt Bakcer 21! Happy New Year! And Happy New Year to all Dolphins fans everywhere!
If you are expecting me to make a pick in Sunday's moved-to-4pm Fins at Jets game...well, you know who I'm going to pick, and for once Street Cred agrees with me! I'd also like the Bills to beat the Pats but heck you can't have everything.
One of the ESPN (I think) pundits said that if the Dolphins won the AFC East it would be poetic justice after their 1-15 last year. Maybe, but IMHO it's a matter of the phlying phickle phinger of phate simply "moving the dash" from 1-15 to 11-5, Omar Kayyam style..."and the finger of fate wrote" or whatever.
And I never thought I'd say this but I really do think if anyone ought to win the Coach of the Year Award it should be--not Tony Sparano--but Bill Bellichick, who actually had to wrack his playbook brains this year to get this oft injured team to the point where they are after everyone else had given up on them after they went 3-2 and the Bills and Jets were leading the division. And another thing: the Pats showed a lot of character this year...I didn't think this was possible (and under Brady, I think, they would NOT have shown this much character. There are times I think Brady is too full of himself and his supermodel girl friends. This year, of course, the too full of himelf QB award is likely to go to Brett Favre. I did not think it was possible to play as poorly as he did in Seattle...snow? Heck, he played in Green Bay!).
Now, tell me again that the Dolphins can't win in bad weather??? Arrowhead Stadium, with the thermometer showing single digits, had the coldest game in Dolphin history, and sever players on the Fins sideline wore scarves over their mouths, while on the field you could see the frigid breaths on both sides, according to the highlights. But the sun was on the field keeping it from freezing and the sweat from congealing, from that beautiful Ted Ginn run out of a reverse...as close as he looked to the sideline he never stepped over it and risked big hits he is not supposed to be able to handle. And to the Chiefs' credit they didn't fold, being ahead at the half 31-24...and putting themselves in a position they might face in the playoffs. Well, they came back in the second half and held tough on defense (3 interceptions and a fumble recovery by Roth (I think)) and Chad did what he had to do on offense--and that gutsy Fasano TD dragging several Chiefs with him to make it 38-31. And they needed this bad weather game in preparation for the Jets--who happened to lose in the Seattle snow. In fact teh home field and the possibly bad weather were the only things strictly favring the Jets this coming game, and I don't think these advantages will mean as much now as before the KC game.
Don't ask me why the Jets appear to have given up (of course, they might win Sunday), but I think maybe Brett Favre has lost his attitudinal edge, or maybe the bloggers who claim he is thinking about retiring for good after this year are just being melodramatic. I mean, really, the Jets did not really deserve to beat the Bills, and had Trent Edwards played, they would not have beaten the Bills, period.
I'll have more to say about the Dolphins amazing turn-around in future posts, but suffice it to say that this season in so many ways is looking more and more like a deja vu of the Dolphins in 1970, and we all know what happened two years later.
And, this one is for you, Bolt Backer 21: the Chargers WILL beat the Broncos and Will win the AFC West. Something has to cause the Broncos to make amends for the fact that they were almost psychotic this year, and I'd never thought I'd live to see anyone beat the Bucs in Tampa Bay this year!
Fate. The Will of God. Call it what you want. Because I am convinced that, with just about a minute left in the Jets-Bills game with Bills leading 27-24 and having possession, only the Will of God could have caused Los(er)man to attempt to throw a pass ALTHOUGH HE KNOWS HES A PASSER OF INTERCEPTIONS TO THE OTHER SIDE as sure as Jauron knows this...though basically they could have just sat on it, or maybe run it.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: You DO KNOW, Bills, you have Marshawn (FOX censored)!
Well, maybe now this ridiculous play calling is THE KEY to why the Bills, 5-1 after the 7th week, have gone 1-7!
However, though Jauron must have told Losman to throw the ball with the game wrapped up (he thought), it was FATE, the Will of God, what have you, that caused to happen what could only be considered the AFC analogy of the terrible 1977 Giants play called "THE FUMBLE" against the Eagles, in which Larry Csonka, of all people!, fumbled the ball with about a minute left in a game they were winning (to finish 3-11 or something), with which the Eagles proceeded to take in for a score and win the game. (Note: After that game, two very good things happened--Head Coach Bill Arnsparger quit and headed back to the comfort of being Don Shula's Defensive Coordinater again, and Csonka pleeded to be returned to his old spot as FB of the Fins in 1978, which helped Miami to return to the AFC East title)
Need I recapitulate? Losman turns to throw and is hit by the Jets Elam, the ball comes loose and "Reefer" Ellis scoops it up for a TD, whereas the Jets, who were behind pretty much all day, win the game.
Yes, we know that Losman is not much of a QB and the Bills will never win with him. But FATE or God caused this, for one reason and one reason only:
Because it is the Jets destiny. The Football of Fate fell into the hands of Ellis, he scores, and this scenario sets up a Jets win that inexorably puts them into position that THEY MUST FIGHT for the AFC East title against a team that they, without realizing, helped immeasurably to put itself into the position to oppose them in that FATEFUL game.
ONLY FATE could have caused Losman's lost ball, and only fate could have caused the Jets this spring and summer to seek out Favre while telling Chad Pennington to not hit his head on the way out the door. And only fate could have caused the ever wise Bill Parcells to scoop up this well qualified but 2007-scapegoat QB to lead a 1-15 team to this edge of the playoffs, and to this game.
Farve beat Pennington in game one of the season in Miami. And, bad weather or not (will FATE supply unseasonably warm temperatures?), Chad Pennington is looking forward to a rematch.
Will Miami get to "move the dash" turning 1-15 into 11-5 and play out Miracle in Miami 2 (Miracle in Maimi 1 was Shula taking a 3-11 team to 10-4 and the playoffs in 1970)?
In 2007 this division was called the AFC "Least", and I think that almost since the inception of the AFL this division has been consistently one of the weaker ones. From early AFL domination by either the Bills or the Oilers, to AFL-NFL joint era domination by Namath and the Jets, with the rest of the pack nowhere in sight at 7-7 or worse or a lot worse, to almost complete domination during the 70s by Shula's Dolphins which went into the early 80s, then after Dan Marino was exposed as a great thrower but another one of those "A-Rods" in the clutch, the East sorta tried to work itself out, winding up with a great Bills team which owned the AFC for four years, into the 90s. It seems the 90s were rudderless with all four (and yes the Colts were still in it then) teams vying for the top spot, but in the same decade all the teams had bad years as well. It was in this time that, without a TV and with a husband who could care less about football, I pretty much lost track of the NFL until the late 90s, when our son began to get interested in watching football games. Just in time to see New England become the dominant team...ironically, being named the Patriots, right after 9-11!
I have often thought wouldn't it be incredible if the 2007 standings REVERSED this year? Well, the standings will not reverse this year (although I fantasized about the Pats being last and the Fins being first), but they just might "almost" reverse...the Bills were second last year at 7-9 and they might still wind up 7-9, but that would be good for last place not second. The Pats were 16-0 last year but I can see them in third place by moving the 0 digit behind the 1 digit, then moving the dash behind the 0 and then the 6 (10-6, that is). For as impressed as I was with their win over a scrappy Seattle team, and even if the Cards who have clinched (Congrats Cards!) the NFC West do not play like they normally would which might let the Pats win, I can't see them going 11-5. Either the Raiders or Bills or Cards will beat Matt Cassel. As with the last post this would rightfully be the job of Fate: I do not want to think the Pats (who I despise but do respect after all) would have to make the decision to let go of legendary Tom Brady! Or Cassel, for that matter (who could, upon Brett Favre's retirement, be picked up by the Jets. If the Jerseyites learned anything from letting Chad Pennington escape to the Fins, it was this: one good turn deserves another!).
So that even if the Pats do wind up in the playoffs this year, "everybody" knows their time of dominating the AFC East is over, just a matter of telling Bill Bellichick!
Can a case be made for another team to pick up the mantle of domination? First of all, the Pats are NOT going to go into that good night easily. Several defenders are getting old and slow, but if they keep on taking players like LB Mayo in the draft, I can't see the Pats under Bellichick folding, even if they do let Tom Brady go.
As with Miami's dominating teams, it took many years for the Fins to sink to the level of doormat. Throughout the 90s they kind of took turns being either title winner or in the hunt until the last weeks. This was clearly because Dann-o could still throw it well, Shula was still coaching, and every year they drafted just enough good rookies to keep the lineup going. By studying Fins history it becomes clear that cracks in the cement began around 1998-2000: drafts got poorer, management and even ownership was changing; Huizinga had the audacity to take founder Joe Robbie's name off the stadium he built mostly with his own money and call it "Pro Player Stadium" (sounds like Huizinga's company, Blockbuster Video!), which thankfully he later changed to Dolphins Stadium. Also, the round robbin of head coaches...replacing the great Don Shula must have been difficult. It was the little things, like Brian Griese at QB, like alienating Ricky Williams, like terrible drafting from about 2001 to 2007 (more than half the players from this period of time on the 2008 team were drafted by others, including Williams by the Saints). In fact, a handful of starters only! They are (by round and year):
Ted Ginn, Jr. (1st, 2007), Samson Satele (2nd, 2007), Vernon Carey (1st, 2004), Ronnie Brown (2nd, 2005), Matt Roth (2, 2005), Channing Crowder (3, 2005), Yeremiah Bell (6, 2003) and Brandon Fields (7, 2007). Their first pick in 2006, Jason Allen, is okay but still sits behind Renaldo Hill, taken from the Raiders as a FA. In contrast, their 2008 draft sees two starters: Jake Long (1) and Kendall Langford (3), and undrafted rookies include Davone Bess (who has replaced the injured Greg Camarillo) and Dan Carpenter. Philip Merling (round 2) often steps in for Vonnie Holliday or goes in on the 4-3 defense. The rest of the squad are waivers and free agents, a number from good teams like Dallas (Ferguson, Fasano, and Ayodele).
And then there is the gift from the rival Jets: Chad Pennington, without which Miami simply would not be in contention, all else being equal. In fact I will state categorically here: Chad Pennington is the "reincarnation" of Bob Griese. Griese was never the pretty boy bomb thrower a-la Namath or Stabler or Staubach or Marino; he was a dink and dunk QB with an occasional bomb to Warfield just to let opponents know he could do it. Same with Chad to Ginn or Bess. Griese was the epitome of "field general" because he called many of his own plays and had a calming effect on the other offense players, especially the next generation of Dolphin champs (Delvin Williams, Andra Frankin, Nat Moore, Jimmy Cefalo). Pennington plays a similar role with the youngster linemen, Ginn and Bess, and new FB Lou Polite, who has done well picking up 4th and 1 type plays.
Still, it is too early to tell if Miami will regain the dominant position it used to have. As I said, the Pats will not just die. No telling with the Bills: clearly with having gone 5-1 after 6 games this team does have talent and reasonably decent coaching, but I think Trent Edwards's head injury did a number on this team. The Bills defense is big and is fine, in my opinion.
That leaves the Jets. I have said it all year: as foes Favre, so go the Jets, including on defense. Everyone and his uncle who watches the NFL has wondered if the Jets really are for real having gone 0-2 since beating the Pats and Titans. These two games were monumental. Clearly the Jets peaked around these two games and after, something has taken the wind out of their sails. They were uninspired against the Broncos and downright bad against the Niners. The Broncs of course are trying to sew up a playoff birth, and you know the Broncos...they lose when they should win and win when they should lose. It is the Niner loss that is most telling. Now we have Laveranus (spelling?) Coles griping that Favre doesn't use him enough. We have Thomas Jones not looking quite like the world beater he was in the big games, and we have Favre himself looking as if he was still playing the Packer in December, you know, not quite ready for the playoffs. And Gang Green is Gang Greenhorn!
It won't get easier for the Jets, with games in Seattle (Jets are 0-3 on west coast), vs. Bills (if Edwards plays in this game this week, the Bills will play considerably better than they did against Dolphins in Toronto), and finally, the whole enchilada vs. Fins in New York. This game WILL decide the AFC East, and, to hear "everybody" say, only one AFC East team will make the playoffs because the Colts and Ravens are on a roll. In fact this game is so important, CBS is considering putting it on in their evening slot on December 28 nationally, which would make it the first time all year the Fins will be on national TV!
While the Pats have the Raiders, the division-clinching Cards, and finally the Bills (as I said the Pats will likely lose one of these games...I just don't know which one) in successive weeks, the Fins have the Niners, then the Chiefs and the Jets. Folks are saying "Beware of the Niners." The same Niners who have beaten the Bills then the Jets in the last two weeks. I think the Miami players and coaches certainly do not consider the Niners an easy gimme win at all (as expressed on miamidolphins.com and in the Miami Herald)...further, except for that aberation (the Pats blowout loss), Miami's D has been very stingy on points as well as yards. In fact, except for that Pats game, the Dolphins have been the epitome of consistent: good offense (without all the scoring, as some TDs have been called back via penalty, vs. the Rams, Bills, and Raiders), and very good defense, top 10 in league (despite giving up all those points vs. Pats), and very very good at not turning the ball over (plus 12 differential). So that while the Niners faced a Bills team wondering what the fruit and a Jets team that still hasn't recovered from their peak weeks over Pats and Titans, they will not be facing a similar type of team this Sunday in Miami. They are facing a team which is working toward the playoffs at the right time on Dolphin Alumni Weekend. And Shaun Hill will be facing a secondary that has almost worked wonders since they let Matt Cassel run wild over them. Then the Fins go to KC Arrowhead; the Chiefs offense plays well, but Thigpen may not have his way, and the Chiefs defense should pose few problems for Pennington and Co. (Note: as the Fins get more confident and consistent, they have seldom used the Wildcat. This is a good sign they are thinking playoffs.) And, if they beat the Jets in New York in the cold, they will have proven they could play in any weather, a pre-condition for playoff caliber status.
One final note: whereas two weeks ago everyone was picking the Jets to win the division, more and more sports pundits are changing their minds. Wanna hazard a guess as to who they are picking now?
Of course it took my mother-in-law a minute to get the joke.
And speaking of jokes and bills, I probably had more Bills in my hand than Bills that showed up seriously to play football in Toronto against the Sparanos, er, the Dolphins Sunday. As I expected, Losman played poorly, Marshawn (Fox censored) and Lee Evans were barely noticeable, but the Bills D played reasonably well considering they were on the field most of the game...kinda like the 2007 Fins were!
With Trent Edwards out I expected a Miami win, but I really thought the Buffalos would keep it close (or that Miami would rout the Bills...but for some ridiculous reason this doesn't seem as if it is possible, after all, the Bills aren't the Patriots, and, therefore, there is no hatred here. I wonder if the Fins hate the Jets? We'll find out in a few weeks! Will Chad get some level or revenge?)
I've been trying, as an AFC East watcher, to figure out what has happened to the Bills this year. I figured earlier in the season that (what with the Fins in a tailspin going 2-4 after big wins vs. Pats and chargers) that if Miami couldn't win the division I would have no problem with the Bills or even the Jets doing it (ABP: anyone but Patriots!)
Since CBS or anyone doesn't have the wisdom to try to put the Fins on national TV this year (quite frankly I am sick of them putting on the Steelers, who it seems are on every week!) owing to their 1-15 last season, even though thanks to the Wildcat the Fins are one of the more innovative teams this year, and owing to their "resurgence" as the NFL Network keeps saying, I have to rely on video highlights. Now the pundits keep saying Edwards can't figure out a 3-4 Defense (now whose fault is that? Edwards or his coaches?), but it was Losman who lost it. It would be convenient to blame Edwards' injury and Losman's lack of starts, but even though Losman did not play well, who called that stupid pass play at the Maimi 3? The one Allen intercepted? You know, Bills, you do have Marshawn (FOX censored) and you do have other runners in case he is covered. so why in the blue blazes did you have Losman throwing it, on the Miami 3?
Fate, maybe? I wonder. Now the Bills contracted for 10 million dollars per game to have games held in Toronto. I would like to know who decided what team would play the Bills there this weekend, and when it was decided. But don't you think it is a bit precipitous to have chosen the only AFC East team that does NOT play well in cold climates in December? The Fins haven't won in Buffalo in December in may years, and have a 2-7 recent record for games played in December in cold weather. You should have heard the crew on NFL Network's AFC Playbook Saturday night joking about how the Fins get an automatic ten points for NOT having to play the Bills in the cold! Ten points is just enough to cover that Pennington-to-Fasano TD pass and Carpenter's 50 yard field goal!
Gee, when the Fins play the Jets in New York in early January, will it be unseasonably warm? What will Fate come up with, since this WILL be the game that decides the AFC East?!?
Because the Bills are out of it. The Jets have the Bills (a win likely), the Seahawks (will the curse of the west coast continue?), then the Fins at home. The Pats have it easier with the Raiders (if they can beat the Hawks in the last minutes in Seattle, they can beat the Raiders who looked horrible thursday night vs. Chargers in Oakland), then the Cards in NE (since the Cards have clinched they won't be playing their hardest so the Pats should win), and then the Bills. The Fins have the Niners at home on Dolphin alumni weekend (which is the same event that Fate "caused" the Fins last year to get it up enough to actually beat the Ravens in OT...meaning the Niners, who are playing THE spoiler role of the year, will be prevented by Fate from winning, and besides, Frank Gore is hurt and may not play), then the Chiefs in KC (a likely win even if it is cold, because the Chiefs Defense is bad enough to cover for Tyler "world beater--NOT" Thigpen and TE Gonzales' good play, then the Jets in New York.
I will not predict a winner of the Jets-Fins finale. But consider this:
Earlier in the season matchups, the Jets beat the Fins, the Pats beat the Jets and the Fins beat the Pats.
Recently in late season, the Jets beat the Pats and the Pats beat the Fins.
Does this mean Fate dictates the Fins beat the Jets?
I was almost ready to give up this blog to my son, "Son of Snorky," (who began his own blog on realsportsblogs but hasn't actually posted anything, so I may take that one over!), due to back injury, or rather, a lotta bit of arthritis mixed with a bit of osteoporosis...yeh, yeh, yeh, you men here don't wanna hear about it! So what the heck, it was too much you know what in the wrong position!
And, oh yeah, the Dolphins losing so horribly to the Ravens four weeks ago! I thought I was going to DIE! Now I can take losing by one point to the Texans--whom they have never beaten, so what else is new? But when it is a team the Fins have pretty much owned (except for a playoff loss), and when it is an improving pass defense against the rookie Flacco, and one of the best AFC defenses against the wonder of the Wildcat--well, the Fins couldn't lose, right? BUT THEY DID AND THEY DID HORRIBLY, so I thought I was going to die, and in an apoplectic fit of anger I guess I did a number on my sacri-iliac! No you know what that night! I had a headache!
Nor did it help the (as I expected) the Fins demolished the Bills the following week, reigned in the horses the week after that, and this past Sunday managed to survive a weak Seattle team. This brought me back to this blog! It was vitally important that Miami beat a weak team. Funny how a rebuilding, up and coming team finds a way to beat the "big boys" (Pats, Chargers, Broncos) but always struggles against teams that look (in the win-loss column) like losers (Texans, Seahawks). But they held off against Seattle (with Yeremiah Bell redeeming himself after letting Texan QB Schaub run it into the endzone in that one-point loss), and with a remaining schedule that mostly includes weaklings (like the Niners, Rams, Raiders and Chiefs) as well as their division rivals, the Fins had to prove to me that they could beat these kinds of teams, no matter which way.
So now we have the AFC East in a bind, with the Jets and Pats at 6-3 and the Fins and Bills at 5-4. Wha haappen to the Bills? According to most experts, it is the fact that beginning with the loss to Miami in week 8, then the Jets in week 9 and the Pats this past week, the problem for the Buffalos is that Edwards can't read a 3-4 defense. If that is indeed the cast, then the Bills are out of it...they have the Fins, Jets and Pats pretty much in the crucial final four weeks. One can assume that the Fins, Jets, and Pats will all still be in the running at that point, so the Bills will have to rely on the old reliables of home field (particularly against the warm weather Fins...one day soon I am going to rant on why the NFL insisted on keeping the Dolphins in the same division with three cold weather teams, and it doesn't get much colder than Buffalo in the late fall/winter!), and that they have played spoiler on the Jets since almost forever. Which could mean---guess what, all you Pats doubters!---Snorky was right to say several weeks ago that counting out the Bradyless bunch was a bad idea.
Now some might claim I made up that headline, "Go Pats" to flip off Jets fans and get Josh Q. Public to notice me. Josh Q WHO? But anyway, I still do not like the Patriots and probably never will as long as Bellichick is their coach. And I can still say I might be a Jets fan today had the Jets been able to ride their AFL success into the AFC in 1970 instead of cave to the newcomer Colts and upcomer Dolphins that year. But instead, Sonny Werblin sold the team to incompetents, and the Jets have been incompetent on and off since then. (It is one thing for the Fins post-Joe Robbie ownership to have gone downhill under Huizinga, who really is one of the worst sports franchise owners out there...I mean, look at the Marlins! and it is one thing for the Fins coaching to have been really lousy for the last 7 years or so. It is clear now that Hiuzinga is letting the football pros run the team now, Parcells and Co in the front office and Sparano and Co on the field, with good results so far. It is another thing for the Jets to have not even been close to a Super Bowl IN FORTY YEARS!!!)
And therein lies the edge to the Pats. As much as one cannot stand Bellichick, as much as one can downgrade Matt Cassel, as much as one can say that new runner of theirs won't make up for the ones who are injured, and as ####ed up as the Pats defense is, the Pats did not let their at home crushing by the Dolphins get ot them. The Pats--as so many had hoped--did NOT go away, did not let losing Brady get ot them, and did not let their fans get them down. As much as I can't stand the Pats, I gotta say this is definitely the team that has dominated the 2000s, that knows how to win when it counts and can come back to the point where (besides the Titans) has the best shot at winning the AFC! Besides Favre, Thomas Jones, and Ty Law (again!), what do the Jets have? So what if they clobbered the hapless Rams? As far as I am concerned, that game says more about the Jets lack of moral fiber than anything else (you know, like the Pats lack of moral fiber everytime they annihilated the Fins last year!)
Now don't take that "GO PATS" headline to mean I am actually rooting for the Pats. Perish the thought! It is just that the Jets are favored and I'm sorry, if Favre has a bad game, and he might because the Pats really are inspired (and not looking ahead to that rematch in Miami against a true nemesis, who outside of last year has always beaten the Pats at least once a season), the Jets won't win, period, no matter what Tom Jones does.
And don't look for anymore "Stupid Female Picks" because obviously my record so far is embarassing and I don't even want to think about it!
A note to Bolt Back 21: don't give up, the Chargers are still going to win the AFC West. Good golly, the Broncos surely don't deserve to!
This week I'm just gonna list my picks with no explanations...after last weeks's 6 - 8, I have to agree with slshusker...my picks deserved no respect! Rams over Skins?? Browns over Giants?? Jags over Broncos??? And kudoos to that Cards fan who lambasted my Cowboys pick!
Bills over Chargers (Because it's in Buffalo and their QB is back)
Panthers over Saints
Bears over Vikes
Steelers over Bungles
Titans over Chiefs
Dolphins over Ravens
Giants over Niners
Cowboys over Rams
Texans over Lions
Colts over Packers
Jets over Raiders
Skins over Browns
Bucs over Seahawks
Broncos over Pats (good golly I picked the Broncs again??? But it is funny how it seems when the Chargers lose the Broncos win, and vice versa...but what if Bills lose? Pats might regain some incentive.)
Should that be the Sports Page Headline in the Miami Herald this morning?...Not really, because, well, some here might think it's "the curse" but I beg to differ...Houston's not-so-unlikely last minute win over Miami was not only not simply a curse but just a bit better football for just a bit longer. I would like to have seen the face of Ronnie "slinging arrows" Brown when Matt Schaub ran that ball into the endzone--the same way the Fins D refused to let LT run it in last week!
So the Texans--as I said a few days ago who are NOT the 0-4 team their record indicates--and, as some other blogger said (who picked the Texans) that the Dolphins and Texans were like mirror images of each other--young, aggressive teams which tend to do well against the run (which, Brown's stats being noted on the game...I don't recall the Texans leading rusher...were not thast great)--won by just being a little more aggressive yesterday, 29-28...a win not unlike the other three times the Texans beat the Fins...three points or less! And because Matt Schaub, unlike Matt Cassel and Phil Rivers, exposed the weaknesses of the Dolphins defense backfield for a huge amount of yardage.
I am sad the Fins lost after such stellar efforts against Pats and Chargers...but I am also glad the Texans, a fairly decent team after all (but for the stupid play of Rosenfels--get rid of him, Texans!), are no longer winless because they shouldn't have been in the first place! Good for you all, Texans! Now go out next week and whoop it up against the hopeless Lions. Just don't get smug the way the Fins did!
THAT'S RIGHT, DOLPHINS...YOU GOT SMUG! STUPID, STUPID...YOU BEAT THE PATS AND CHARGERS, KNOWN TO BE GOOD TEAMS, AND NOW YOU THINK BECAUSE YOU'RE AHEAD LATE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER (AGAINST A QB THAT APPARENTLY TOOK YOUR PASS DEFENSE APART ALL DAY, NO LESS) YOU CAN GO OUT AND CELEBRATE AT 28-23??? AND NOW YOU HAVE PAID FOR IT! WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT IT???
You are going to go out next Sunday and beat the Ravens at home, that's what! And you don't even need an Peyton Manning to do it. Neither the Texans, nor the Bolts nor Pats, really stopped the Wildcat, so use it, and since "everybody knows" you can't run on the Ravens, do it anyway, because they can't stop the pass. And you pass rushers (Porter had another good day in Reliant Stadium) and especially you secondary folks, Flacco is a rookie, okay? A pretty good rookie (or else he wouldn't be starting) but a rookie nevertheless who couldn't do squat against a Colts defense that IMHO is outshined by the Fins anyway. You know what you have to do.
And the Sunday after that, you are going to beat the Bills at home.
And onto my other stupid picks...
Good golly Miss Molly! the Rams beat the Redskins--in Washington! Only one or two of the bolder bloggers picked the "hapless" Rams, and they did it by doing something no one else has been able to do to the Skins--force turnovers, and they--like 4 or 5 other teams--did it in the closing seconds (in fact time had expired). HOORAY FOR THE RAMS!
Thus the Rams and Texans have won their first games this year, and good for them. Don't like to see winless teams.
Well, my pick of the Falcons paid off. Another last second win, and this one makes the NFC North bolluxed up with no one who clearly standout (except the Lions, who just might do what the Fins couldn't and wouldn't do last year, go winless!). So the Bears, who looked at one point like they would easily take this division, are now 3-3. The Vikes, who looked like they really needed more than Frerotte to win with, are now 3-3. The Packers, who have looked either good or bad with Rodgers, are also 3-3. Sorta mediocre, these three, wouldn't you say? Now, look at the NFC South: the Panthers (wha-happen?), the Bucs (thanks you, Mr. Garcia!), and the Falcons (holder of the best rookie QB out there this year) are all 4-2 and the Saints are 3-3. Statistically the NFC East is the strongest division but I'm not buying it.
Panthers! Whaa haapen? Two words: Jeff Garcia. Okay, three more words: home field advantage...the Bucs haven't lost there in a long time. And, oh yeah, you guys were buying into that "the Panthers are playoff bound this year" stuff. As with the Fins, you folks got smug and you paid the price for it. But unlike the Fins you looked bad in losing!
And the Vikes eke out the Lions. And the Saints raid the Raiders. And the Jets buck the Bungles. And Cards clip the Cowboys (and apologies to that Cards fan who walloped my Pokes pick--see comments on previous post--you were right after all about the Cards). And Eagles fly over the Niners, who are apparently sinking fast. And the Packers drown the Seahawks.
Finally, three incredible wins that will reverberate around the league for at least this week.
I had picked the Broncos (I have to keep reminding myself never to pick this height of inconsistency!) over the Jaguars because it was at Mile High. Well, at the end of the day, it was the Cutler kids who needed air. Nice going, Jags! You needed the win with the Colts winning as well as Texans, and you did it! Have a nice week off.
I had picked the Colts, but figured it'll go either way anyway. WRONG! Peyton is back. The Colts D appears to be back. That momentum they built up against Texans in the last quarter last week carried through...what happened to the Ravens, another team that looked promising at the beginning of the year, have lost three straight now and have not looked too bad doing it (looked okay vs. Steelers and didn't look too bad vs. Titans, but what happened to that highly ranked defense??). Seems the Colts have rediscovered they are a good team after all.
And now we come to Chargers-Patriots, with the Bolts belting Bellichick's crew in a 30-10 win that took some of the sting off the Texans win over my aqua-orange boys. This puts the Chargers only one game behind the feckless horses...and they go to Buffalo next week (good luck...or will the Bills be looking ahead to Fins?) while Pats have the Broncs. Meanwhile, the Jets (who seem to have the easiest schedule in the NFL...why is it they always seem to have teams they can beat...Brett Favre, maybe?) and Pats are both at 3-2! the Bills are 4-1 and the Fins are 2-3, which means this now "not least" division is still up for grabs as only two games separate top from bottom. That is not something that happens too often. And kuddos to the Bolts, who clearly got the revenge they wanted...but what's gonna happen if they meet the Pats in the playoffs?
Remember bakc to the 70s and the Steelers-Raiders? This matchup seems similar.
As a response comment to last week's Stupid Female Picks, another blogger wrote something like this: "scan in your Las Vegas Betting Ticket to me and then I will show your picks some respect."
Well, you can keep that "respect" buddy! I DO THIS FOR FUN! Further, I don't need to get into my Football betting history which goes back to the early 70s, and, actually, even before that when I used to help my dad make office betting pool picks. But I have won enough and lost even more enough to know that "on any given Sunday" is the rule, not the exception that proves it. I mean, the last two weeks...the Broncos DID beat the Bucs even though I said they wouldn't, and the Jets DID beat the Cards the week before that even though I said they wouldn't. And go back and read the first Stupid Female Picks, in which I opened with...
"This is an experiment."
Why? Because though football has changed somewhat--the players are bigger and faster than they used to be, there are more teams than there used to be, and thus the talent gets spread thinner (though there seems to be more of it), and college offenses/defenses have changed somewhat so thus NFL offenses/defenses have had to change somewhat...for example, back in the 60s and 70s nearly every team had a good QB. It seems now colleges aren't making them fast enough, as several of the NFL teams lack a good QB: Detroit, KC, St. Louis, Minnesota (Frerotte's a good back up, not a good starter), Oakland, Houston, and Cleveland. And it seems Miami is only competeitive now because they had the luck of grabbing the Jets' castoff, Pennington, after NY got Brett Favre. The need for a good QB, along with enough offensive and defensive talent is one of the few things that haven't changed. Formations and coaching has changed somewhat, though, and there now seems to be more room for innovation. As I said, "seems." Appearances can be deceiving.
That was why when I started "putting my money where my mouth was" back then I had to have a rational for making picks. I couldn't follow all the teams as much as I would need to, so I subscribed to "Pro Football Weekly" so I could get useful stats so I could say, "So and So's offense can beat Yadda Yadda's defense"--and guess what? "On any given Sunday." Then you have the spread, which is what the betting is based on. Only someone who very closely follows football stats and player to player matchups can (IMHO) beat the spread consistently, and thus win more money than lose. After losing enough money vs the spread (but not straight up), I had to pick my picks judiciously enough to cover the spread as well as pick the winner. So I needed more than pure numbers. This is where momentum, schedule, QB, division rivalry and good old fashioned desire come in.
As I opened last weeks picks, on paper, the Chargers are a better team than the Fins, that is, their QB is better, their receivers are most certainly better, LT is better than Brown at least by reputation (Brown, of course, has been dogged by injuries and inconsistency), and the Bolts defense is generally thought to be better than the Fins' because it consists of reliable veterans. Yet, the Dolphins won, with Porter and company stopping Chambers, then LT, at the goal line, and that innovative Wildcat offense, and Pennington--while not being Favre or Brady or (both) Mannings--has enough arm to well utilize "what may be the NFL's worst receiver corp" (to quote Fox's Marvez, or was it Schein?). And, oh yeah! the Fins just might have one of the NFLs best offensive lines since...that 1972 offensive line? (But that is a stretch; still, who is complaining about their first pick, Jake Long, now??) Finally, the Fins wanted it more last week, they had some momentum left after that delicious Pats win, and the interplay of the Fins "needing" the win over the Chargers need for the win (as they didn't know the Broncos would win later in the day). Besides, they have enough players left from that horrible 2007 team to never ever wnat to go through that again! Thus perhaps the Fins might ALWAYS feel that they "need" the win this year!
Finally, I generally tend to think that my AFC East picks will be more reliable than others' AFC East picks because I generally follow the AFC East more closely (as would any Pats, Fins, Bills or Jets fan). So far, my AFC East picks are 4-1 over two weeks, with the only loss being the Jets win over the Cards. This week, I am picking every single East team to win except the Pats, who play the Chargers. After last weeks win over the Niners, the Pats can afford to "not win"...well, not really, but now the Bolts REALLY NEED TO GET AFTER IT!
Chargers over Patriots
Perhaps Bellichick got all over Matt Cassel during the two week skein with the bye week to get his act together, and perhaps those "old" bodies got a good rest so that when they played the younger Niners they were able to outlast Nolan's crew...and Cassel looked almost as effective as Brady while Moss finally looked like Moss. Further, the interplay again--Miami had just beaten the Bolts while the Bills were getting their buffalo wings clipped by the Cards gave the Pats more motivation (after all, the NFC West IS the NFLs weakest division this year by a long shot...should the Cards falter the Niners might win by default). I had also said (in a comment on another blog) that it was foolhardy to diss the Patriots this early in the season (mostly because the Bills were unbeaten at that point). I was right: both the Bills and the Pats have the same relative records with Bills 4-1 and Pats 3-1. In fact, as the Bills are off (and they need it now big time), one would think the Pats would "need" that win to get themselves a 4-1 matching record, and thus shut up those who have so easily dismissed them. But I do not think this is going to happen. Everyone knows that the Chargers are "struggling". Everyone "knows" that the veteran defense looked "old" against the Sparano's "Wildcat" bunch last week as the Pats had looked two weeks before, so that means the Chargers are going down, right? I suspect that a good dose of the biggest motivating factor in football, revenge, will lift those "old" bodies up to play like young lions again against the team that defeated them in last year's AFC Champ game, and the Chargers, with LT's painful toes and all, will rise to the occasion.
Panthers over Bucs
If I was just coming into following the NFL now, this year, and was pre-disposed to root for an NFC team, I would go with the Panthers (there is no west Texas team to root for, and I generally go against the grain anyway, thus I wouldn't root for the Cowboys). This team is HOT. This team is consistent. This team has beaten good teams as well as bad teams. This team has a good QB that has played all season (unlike the Bucs, who have two fairly good QBs). This team has a certain rhythm (which I suspect the Bucs lack, due to QB changes). Everyone talks about the strength of the NFC East, but I think the NFC South is just as competitive (and maybe moreso). Yes, the Bucs "need" this win more, being a game behind the Panthers. Yes, the game is in Tampa Bay. Yes, Garcia is back. But will Garcia fit into the rhythm that the Bucs have developed? Will Garcia be able to develop his own rhythm this week in practice? Since I trust in Carolina's rhythm more than the Bucs, I go with the Panthers.
And the rest:
Falcons over Bears: It's in Atlanta, I like Ryan over Orton, and I am very impressed with what the Falcs did in Green Bay last week. I would say any young QB such as Orton could look like a Tom Brady against the not only winless Lions but the hopeless Lions as well, so that, although this game could go either way, I have to make a pick so I pick the Falcons.
Dolphins over Texans: Yes, I know...Miami is coming off a big win over Chargers and the Texans are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Colts. The Texans are NOT the terrible 0-4 team their record indicates, and Schaub is back (maybe), and it's in Houston. AND the Fins have NEVER beaten the Texans (plus the fact that when the Oilers were in Houston, they gave the Dolphins fits, especially in the Earl Campbell era). I can really understand why several "pickers" are picking the Texans. So here is why I am picking Miami: one, there is a DAMNED GOOD REASON the Texans lost that 17 point lead last week--Sage Rosenfels (the Fins got rid of him for a damned good reason, too), and the fact that whoever had the ball during those fumbles couldn't hang onto it! Even if Schaub plays, will their players be able to keep the ball? Will the Texans coaching staff have a fix for the Wildcat? Will the Texans OL be able to stop one of the leagues best pass rushes? And, oh yeah, the Fins are still in the running but not the Texans.
Colts over Ravens: Just when I thought the Colts were perhaps finished for the year and their defense was yucky they play like one would expect the Colts to play and overcome a 17 point deficit against Texans. Just when I thought they had no running game they come up with one. Now the Ravens are good, but when the going gets tough the tough get going, and this could be the Colts' last shot at winning this division for a long time. Just a hunch.
Vikings over Lions: Of course.
Saints over Raiders: It is crunch time for the Saints.
Jets over Bungles: Because they're the BUNGLES! ( I refuse to call the Bungles by their rightful name until they can win one!)
Redskins over Rams: Of course.
Broncos over Jaguars: It is in Denver. Living at about 6,000 feet myself, I know the importance of altitude. Since the Jags live at sea level...(and they are still all ####ed up)
Cowboys over Cardinals: If it was just Warner vs. Romo I'd pick Warner, but it isn't, so I won't.
Niners over Eagles: Because the Niners don't have players questioning everything the way McNabb does...a rule of thumb for me is never pick the team where one of its most important players is questioning the play of the rest of the team.
Packers over Seahawks: I can't believe how far the Hawks have fallen! They should have the NFC West sowed up by now! Since I can't figure out why this team is doing so poorly, I must go with the Packers, who still have a shot at their division title.
Giants over Browns: Of course. Why is a mismatch like this on Monday night? (Don't reply, I know why! The same reason the Fins aren't on this year!)
You know I oughtta call this blog, "AFC EAST Watch"...
I don't know how well Farve will play for the Jets. But I do seem to remember another glamorous name in the NFL many years ago, you know, Joe Willie Namath (I had named a dog after him), who played for the Jets. Pretty well, too, until his knees gave out. They got rid of Namath in 1973, which was the same year the Colts got rid of Johnny Unitas. Namath went to the Rams...LA of course, and Unitas went to the Chargers under Harlan Svare. Is anyone into NFL blogging who remembers Harlan Svare??? Heck, does anyone remember Johnny Unitas???
But when I heard the Jets were interested in Farve I thought, "I guarantee you he'll go to the Jets. That way, the Packer great might do for the Jets what Culpepper couldn't do for the Fins last year...but on the other hand, Farve might do for the Jets what Culpepper did for the Fins last year, which was nothing (see my previous post on what desperadoes the Dolphins were to sign the former Viking who could be a great one if he stays healthy. He didn't.).
And I also thought: I guarantee you the Dolphins will sign Pennington if the Jets get Farve.
I was right, of course. See foxsports/nfl for the latest on Miami signing Pennington for a two year 11 mil deal. This could be the break the Fins need to at least get somewhat respectable again...you have no idea just how painful it's been the last couple of years telling folks I'm a Fins fan! (I always have to qualify myself by saying, "They were great once!")
The Dolphins tend to do this sorta thing. In going 8-8 under Nick Saban, they went on a six-game winning streak to end the season, and one of those wins was against the hot, playoff bound Chargers...turns out the Fins had signed an ex-Charger, 3rd string QB (the name escapes me), who helped design a winning defensive strategy against his old team. Another consequence of this Miami upset was that the Chargers were so het up to redeem themselves that they went out the following week and beat the undefeated Indy Colts.
Which means, of course, that Fins fans can expect at least one win against the Jets in 2008.
Like I said in my "about me" life imitates history...and if history is any judge...and if it is true that when you start losing assistant coaches like the Pats are (they just lost Maningi to the Jets...talk about how interesting the AFC East will be next year! Bellichick or however you spell it will almost be staring at himself here!), then you know it's all downhill from here. All they need now is for a rival league to steal Bruschi and one or two others, and...oooh boy!
For instance: 74 Dolphins, who lost not only 3 players to WFL but 2 assistant caoches, one of whom, Bill Arnsparger, became maybe the worst coach in NFL history with the Giants (for you younger folks, Google "the fumble--Giants vs. Eagles")
