BTD, besides the Dolphins, that is. Since I am a Fins fan do not expect me not to pick them to beat Ravens. I wouldn't pick against them if they were playing the Steelers. Or the Titans. Or anyone. But that's me, and, who knows, this might be the only wrong pick of the weekend. But I'm gonna back my team anyway! Checking the yearly stats, the Ravens are better in every category except turnover-takeaway, with Miami at + 17. The Ravens are no slouches either. And, wouldn't you know it, the primary reason Baltimore won the Oct. 17 game, 27-13, was because Chad Pennington did something he has rarely done this season: Chad threw an interception at the score of 3-3, and the Ravens didn't look back from that. And other miscues from the home team, especially on special teams. The Ravens also have more talent but I usually don't count what's "on paper." So that, all else being equal, provided Miami does not turn over the ball (they have had lots of practice at that) to a team that can easily capitalize on turnovers, and provided Chad is his usual calm, poised, leadership self...and Porter and Co. can say "hello" to rookie phenom Flacco a few times, and Bess and Ginn and Fasano can overcome the awesome Ed Reed just enough to score, then the Fins will win. And then there is the "Rodney Dangerfield" factor...the Ravens claim no one respects them, but they have nothing on the lack of respect the Fins have had to put up with all year. CB Andre Goodman, who was on that 2007 joke, has repeatedly said other teams' players have looked at this 2008 team with the same jaundiced eye as they looked at the 2007 team. Further, as the season was coming to a close, most everyone said that the Jets would win this past Sunday because the Patriots "deserved" the AFC East title over the Fins because the Pats "are better" and are "more respected, thus teams won't want to play them" (as to infer everyone wants to play "weakest link" Miami!!! I bet you the Chargers don't!!! Chargers haven't beaten Fins in Miami since the 1981 overtime thriller won by Bernichke FG in OT. Sorry Bolt but I had to say it). I've said it before and I'll say it again, loud and clear: THE DOLPHINS THRIVE ON LACK OF RESPECT!!! Keep disrespecting them! PLEASE!
That is why, in case you couldn't figure out my last post, I want every blogger who is not a Fins fan to pick the Ravens!!!
And another final thing: Revenge. Not necessarily on the Ravens because of that Oct. 17 game. No. The holdovers from that 2007 team want to beat Cam "1-15" Cameron in the worst way. Those holdovers include Porter, Holliday, Roth, Tim Allen, Jason Allen, Reinaldo Hill, Yeremiah Bell, Andre Goodman from the defense and Ronnie Brown, Ted Ginn, Dave Martin, Vernon Carey, Samson Satele, and others on offense. Nothing motivates like motivation, and if Miami wins you can chalk it up to a greater motivation.
On to the rest.
Cards over Falcons. No I'm not kidding. Again, the Falcons are a better and certainly more balanced offensively...basically, the Cards are the only playoff team with a paultry running game. One can assume that the Cards will have some difficulty stopping Michael Turner. But one can, if Atlanta's defense stats bear things out, expect Warner and the Boldin-Fitzgerald duo to do very well, well enough to overcome any kind of Atlanta lead should they not turn the ball over. Falcons are -3 in the giveaway department. But yes, it'll be close.
Eagles over Vikings. I was gonna pick the Vikes out of past love (I was a Vikes fan in the Joe Kapp era), but good golly miss molly, who in the blue blazes will their QB be? Neither Frerotte nor Jackson are likely to be effective playoff QBs, and the Adrian Peterson show is going to get old if the Vikes can't figure out another way to effectively move the ball. So based on the fact that McNabb has been effective in past palyoff games, I have to go with the Eagles...but the Vikes will win if either QB is effective and their outstanding defense makes Philly turn over the ball.
Chargers over Colts. By all rights, the Colts should win with Manning, but this is the Chargers we're talking about. I agree with Bolt Backer 21...the noise in SD will drive Manning crazy, the Chargers seem to have the Colts number, and the Philip Rivers Band appears to be peaking exactly as a playoff team should at the right time, 8-8 be damned.
And a final note to Pats and Jets fans:
Stop your whining!
So the almighty "dyansty" Patriots needed the Jets to win Sunday in order to back into the playoffs? YOU CALL YOURSELVES A DYNASTY??!!?? STOP YOUR STUPID WHINING and admit the Fins are a better TEAM (with the accent on TEAM. The "i' in the Patriots was more pronounced than the "i' in Dolphins).
So the Bretts...according to NFL GameDay..."expected" Pennington to go to the Packers in exchange for Favre and "did not want him going to Miami because Miami was so bad last year" and thus they "felt bad" for Chad after the Fins picked him up AFTER THE JETS THREW HIM AWAY...
You take the cake, Jettsies!! No wonder they call you "the Wets" in Miami! You people have excuses for everything, you CHOKERS! Imagine! Blaming Miami for their own success this year! Only from the Jets!!!
And don't get me started on the Pokes...I could write a week's worth of posts on this subject, but that would drive Hanahan crazy and we need him ready to root for the Dolphins Sunday, so I won't.
Fate. The Will of God....I had said in my last post. The Will of God, indeed, for nothing happens without HIS intervention! (But you atheists can call it FATE if you want, and don't give me that "God doesn't exist" ####-ola...denounce us Christians if you want but DO NOT SCREW AROUND WITH GOD!)
And to God's pleasure and HIS glory,
The Dolphins Moved The Dash! 1 - 15 to 11- 5!
What else can you call it when right after Favre (after Jets recover Chad's sack-fumble and score the game's first TD--with X-tra point snap #### up) throws his TD to Coles, and the Fins get it back, and, on a beautiful pass to Ginn in end zone after Chad got away from several potential sackers to throw to Fasano...and then 20 seconds or so later rookie DE Merling reads a "double screen" right for his interception TD. Fins 14, Jets 6, then 9 at the half. And, after the Jets go ahead in 3rd quarter (because Miami STILL has a couple fo speacial teams issues!), Pennington goes to Ginn again, who back tracks an underthrown pass for another beauty catch, which sets up Fasano's TD. Fins 21-17. Then it goes after a blocked punt (but not too many special teams issues!) that Carpenter FG. Fins 24-17, and just when Jets are taking it downfield for the tie, Goodman makes his 2nd interception.
In other words, the Jets played hard but the Fins played harder, with just enough flukey stuff to make the claim that God was on the side of the Dolphins this afternoon!
I'll get into comparing them with the 1970 team later this week.
And otherwise it was a great day! The Pats won but WON'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS ANYWAY! I call it KARMA (do unto others as you would have them do unto you...Matt Cassel is paying for some of the liberties the Pats took last year when they continued to run up scores on their AFC East opponents, and "spy gate"...Maybe from now on Bellichick will spend time building character, not lopsided scores. And from what I heard at the Bills game, the Pats were up to their old tricks of not getting penalites when they deserved them. As for Mangini and Favre, will they or won't they be back?
and speaking of the Jets...a great big
thank you for chad pennington!
You could have traded him, but NOOOOOOO! You threw him overboard and Miami rescued him so that he could lead them to the playoffs for the first time since 2001, and the AFC EAST title!
In other games, I am also happy because the Pokes, who give a whole new meaning to OVER-RATED, got clobbered by the Eagles and will also MISS the playoffs! Good work, Tony Romo! when you turn into Troy Aikman, let me know!
and a great big CONGRATULATIONS TO THE CHARGERS! 52-21! GOOD WORK PHIL, LT, and the rest of the team...
and you too, Bolt Bakcer 21! Happy New Year! And Happy New Year to all Dolphins fans everywhere!
If you are expecting me to make a pick in Sunday's moved-to-4pm Fins at Jets game...well, you know who I'm going to pick, and for once Street Cred agrees with me! I'd also like the Bills to beat the Pats but heck you can't have everything.
One of the ESPN (I think) pundits said that if the Dolphins won the AFC East it would be poetic justice after their 1-15 last year. Maybe, but IMHO it's a matter of the phlying phickle phinger of phate simply "moving the dash" from 1-15 to 11-5, Omar Kayyam style..."and the finger of fate wrote" or whatever.
And I never thought I'd say this but I really do think if anyone ought to win the Coach of the Year Award it should be--not Tony Sparano--but Bill Bellichick, who actually had to wrack his playbook brains this year to get this oft injured team to the point where they are after everyone else had given up on them after they went 3-2 and the Bills and Jets were leading the division. And another thing: the Pats showed a lot of character this year...I didn't think this was possible (and under Brady, I think, they would NOT have shown this much character. There are times I think Brady is too full of himself and his supermodel girl friends. This year, of course, the too full of himelf QB award is likely to go to Brett Favre. I did not think it was possible to play as poorly as he did in Seattle...snow? Heck, he played in Green Bay!).
Now, tell me again that the Dolphins can't win in bad weather??? Arrowhead Stadium, with the thermometer showing single digits, had the coldest game in Dolphin history, and sever players on the Fins sideline wore scarves over their mouths, while on the field you could see the frigid breaths on both sides, according to the highlights. But the sun was on the field keeping it from freezing and the sweat from congealing, from that beautiful Ted Ginn run out of a reverse...as close as he looked to the sideline he never stepped over it and risked big hits he is not supposed to be able to handle. And to the Chiefs' credit they didn't fold, being ahead at the half 31-24...and putting themselves in a position they might face in the playoffs. Well, they came back in the second half and held tough on defense (3 interceptions and a fumble recovery by Roth (I think)) and Chad did what he had to do on offense--and that gutsy Fasano TD dragging several Chiefs with him to make it 38-31. And they needed this bad weather game in preparation for the Jets--who happened to lose in the Seattle snow. In fact teh home field and the possibly bad weather were the only things strictly favring the Jets this coming game, and I don't think these advantages will mean as much now as before the KC game.
Don't ask me why the Jets appear to have given up (of course, they might win Sunday), but I think maybe Brett Favre has lost his attitudinal edge, or maybe the bloggers who claim he is thinking about retiring for good after this year are just being melodramatic. I mean, really, the Jets did not really deserve to beat the Bills, and had Trent Edwards played, they would not have beaten the Bills, period.
I'll have more to say about the Dolphins amazing turn-around in future posts, but suffice it to say that this season in so many ways is looking more and more like a deja vu of the Dolphins in 1970, and we all know what happened two years later.
And, this one is for you, Bolt Backer 21: the Chargers WILL beat the Broncos and Will win the AFC West. Something has to cause the Broncos to make amends for the fact that they were almost psychotic this year, and I'd never thought I'd live to see anyone beat the Bucs in Tampa Bay this year!
In 2007 this division was called the AFC "Least", and I think that almost since the inception of the AFL this division has been consistently one of the weaker ones. From early AFL domination by either the Bills or the Oilers, to AFL-NFL joint era domination by Namath and the Jets, with the rest of the pack nowhere in sight at 7-7 or worse or a lot worse, to almost complete domination during the 70s by Shula's Dolphins which went into the early 80s, then after Dan Marino was exposed as a great thrower but another one of those "A-Rods" in the clutch, the East sorta tried to work itself out, winding up with a great Bills team which owned the AFC for four years, into the 90s. It seems the 90s were rudderless with all four (and yes the Colts were still in it then) teams vying for the top spot, but in the same decade all the teams had bad years as well. It was in this time that, without a TV and with a husband who could care less about football, I pretty much lost track of the NFL until the late 90s, when our son began to get interested in watching football games. Just in time to see New England become the dominant team...ironically, being named the Patriots, right after 9-11!
I have often thought wouldn't it be incredible if the 2007 standings REVERSED this year? Well, the standings will not reverse this year (although I fantasized about the Pats being last and the Fins being first), but they just might "almost" reverse...the Bills were second last year at 7-9 and they might still wind up 7-9, but that would be good for last place not second. The Pats were 16-0 last year but I can see them in third place by moving the 0 digit behind the 1 digit, then moving the dash behind the 0 and then the 6 (10-6, that is). For as impressed as I was with their win over a scrappy Seattle team, and even if the Cards who have clinched (Congrats Cards!) the NFC West do not play like they normally would which might let the Pats win, I can't see them going 11-5. Either the Raiders or Bills or Cards will beat Matt Cassel. As with the last post this would rightfully be the job of Fate: I do not want to think the Pats (who I despise but do respect after all) would have to make the decision to let go of legendary Tom Brady! Or Cassel, for that matter (who could, upon Brett Favre's retirement, be picked up by the Jets. If the Jerseyites learned anything from letting Chad Pennington escape to the Fins, it was this: one good turn deserves another!).
So that even if the Pats do wind up in the playoffs this year, "everybody" knows their time of dominating the AFC East is over, just a matter of telling Bill Bellichick!
Can a case be made for another team to pick up the mantle of domination? First of all, the Pats are NOT going to go into that good night easily. Several defenders are getting old and slow, but if they keep on taking players like LB Mayo in the draft, I can't see the Pats under Bellichick folding, even if they do let Tom Brady go.
As with Miami's dominating teams, it took many years for the Fins to sink to the level of doormat. Throughout the 90s they kind of took turns being either title winner or in the hunt until the last weeks. This was clearly because Dann-o could still throw it well, Shula was still coaching, and every year they drafted just enough good rookies to keep the lineup going. By studying Fins history it becomes clear that cracks in the cement began around 1998-2000: drafts got poorer, management and even ownership was changing; Huizinga had the audacity to take founder Joe Robbie's name off the stadium he built mostly with his own money and call it "Pro Player Stadium" (sounds like Huizinga's company, Blockbuster Video!), which thankfully he later changed to Dolphins Stadium. Also, the round robbin of head coaches...replacing the great Don Shula must have been difficult. It was the little things, like Brian Griese at QB, like alienating Ricky Williams, like terrible drafting from about 2001 to 2007 (more than half the players from this period of time on the 2008 team were drafted by others, including Williams by the Saints). In fact, a handful of starters only! They are (by round and year):
Ted Ginn, Jr. (1st, 2007), Samson Satele (2nd, 2007), Vernon Carey (1st, 2004), Ronnie Brown (2nd, 2005), Matt Roth (2, 2005), Channing Crowder (3, 2005), Yeremiah Bell (6, 2003) and Brandon Fields (7, 2007). Their first pick in 2006, Jason Allen, is okay but still sits behind Renaldo Hill, taken from the Raiders as a FA. In contrast, their 2008 draft sees two starters: Jake Long (1) and Kendall Langford (3), and undrafted rookies include Davone Bess (who has replaced the injured Greg Camarillo) and Dan Carpenter. Philip Merling (round 2) often steps in for Vonnie Holliday or goes in on the 4-3 defense. The rest of the squad are waivers and free agents, a number from good teams like Dallas (Ferguson, Fasano, and Ayodele).
And then there is the gift from the rival Jets: Chad Pennington, without which Miami simply would not be in contention, all else being equal. In fact I will state categorically here: Chad Pennington is the "reincarnation" of Bob Griese. Griese was never the pretty boy bomb thrower a-la Namath or Stabler or Staubach or Marino; he was a dink and dunk QB with an occasional bomb to Warfield just to let opponents know he could do it. Same with Chad to Ginn or Bess. Griese was the epitome of "field general" because he called many of his own plays and had a calming effect on the other offense players, especially the next generation of Dolphin champs (Delvin Williams, Andra Frankin, Nat Moore, Jimmy Cefalo). Pennington plays a similar role with the youngster linemen, Ginn and Bess, and new FB Lou Polite, who has done well picking up 4th and 1 type plays.
Still, it is too early to tell if Miami will regain the dominant position it used to have. As I said, the Pats will not just die. No telling with the Bills: clearly with having gone 5-1 after 6 games this team does have talent and reasonably decent coaching, but I think Trent Edwards's head injury did a number on this team. The Bills defense is big and is fine, in my opinion.
That leaves the Jets. I have said it all year: as foes Favre, so go the Jets, including on defense. Everyone and his uncle who watches the NFL has wondered if the Jets really are for real having gone 0-2 since beating the Pats and Titans. These two games were monumental. Clearly the Jets peaked around these two games and after, something has taken the wind out of their sails. They were uninspired against the Broncos and downright bad against the Niners. The Broncs of course are trying to sew up a playoff birth, and you know the Broncos...they lose when they should win and win when they should lose. It is the Niner loss that is most telling. Now we have Laveranus (spelling?) Coles griping that Favre doesn't use him enough. We have Thomas Jones not looking quite like the world beater he was in the big games, and we have Favre himself looking as if he was still playing the Packer in December, you know, not quite ready for the playoffs. And Gang Green is Gang Greenhorn!
It won't get easier for the Jets, with games in Seattle (Jets are 0-3 on west coast), vs. Bills (if Edwards plays in this game this week, the Bills will play considerably better than they did against Dolphins in Toronto), and finally, the whole enchilada vs. Fins in New York. This game WILL decide the AFC East, and, to hear "everybody" say, only one AFC East team will make the playoffs because the Colts and Ravens are on a roll. In fact this game is so important, CBS is considering putting it on in their evening slot on December 28 nationally, which would make it the first time all year the Fins will be on national TV!
While the Pats have the Raiders, the division-clinching Cards, and finally the Bills (as I said the Pats will likely lose one of these games...I just don't know which one) in successive weeks, the Fins have the Niners, then the Chiefs and the Jets. Folks are saying "Beware of the Niners." The same Niners who have beaten the Bills then the Jets in the last two weeks. I think the Miami players and coaches certainly do not consider the Niners an easy gimme win at all (as expressed on miamidolphins.com and in the Miami Herald)...further, except for that aberation (the Pats blowout loss), Miami's D has been very stingy on points as well as yards. In fact, except for that Pats game, the Dolphins have been the epitome of consistent: good offense (without all the scoring, as some TDs have been called back via penalty, vs. the Rams, Bills, and Raiders), and very good defense, top 10 in league (despite giving up all those points vs. Pats), and very very good at not turning the ball over (plus 12 differential). So that while the Niners faced a Bills team wondering what the fruit and a Jets team that still hasn't recovered from their peak weeks over Pats and Titans, they will not be facing a similar type of team this Sunday in Miami. They are facing a team which is working toward the playoffs at the right time on Dolphin Alumni Weekend. And Shaun Hill will be facing a secondary that has almost worked wonders since they let Matt Cassel run wild over them. Then the Fins go to KC Arrowhead; the Chiefs offense plays well, but Thigpen may not have his way, and the Chiefs defense should pose few problems for Pennington and Co. (Note: as the Fins get more confident and consistent, they have seldom used the Wildcat. This is a good sign they are thinking playoffs.) And, if they beat the Jets in New York in the cold, they will have proven they could play in any weather, a pre-condition for playoff caliber status.
One final note: whereas two weeks ago everyone was picking the Jets to win the division, more and more sports pundits are changing their minds. Wanna hazard a guess as to who they are picking now?
Of course it took my mother-in-law a minute to get the joke.
And speaking of jokes and bills, I probably had more Bills in my hand than Bills that showed up seriously to play football in Toronto against the Sparanos, er, the Dolphins Sunday. As I expected, Losman played poorly, Marshawn (Fox censored) and Lee Evans were barely noticeable, but the Bills D played reasonably well considering they were on the field most of the game...kinda like the 2007 Fins were!
With Trent Edwards out I expected a Miami win, but I really thought the Buffalos would keep it close (or that Miami would rout the Bills...but for some ridiculous reason this doesn't seem as if it is possible, after all, the Bills aren't the Patriots, and, therefore, there is no hatred here. I wonder if the Fins hate the Jets? We'll find out in a few weeks! Will Chad get some level or revenge?)
I've been trying, as an AFC East watcher, to figure out what has happened to the Bills this year. I figured earlier in the season that (what with the Fins in a tailspin going 2-4 after big wins vs. Pats and chargers) that if Miami couldn't win the division I would have no problem with the Bills or even the Jets doing it (ABP: anyone but Patriots!)
Since CBS or anyone doesn't have the wisdom to try to put the Fins on national TV this year (quite frankly I am sick of them putting on the Steelers, who it seems are on every week!) owing to their 1-15 last season, even though thanks to the Wildcat the Fins are one of the more innovative teams this year, and owing to their "resurgence" as the NFL Network keeps saying, I have to rely on video highlights. Now the pundits keep saying Edwards can't figure out a 3-4 Defense (now whose fault is that? Edwards or his coaches?), but it was Losman who lost it. It would be convenient to blame Edwards' injury and Losman's lack of starts, but even though Losman did not play well, who called that stupid pass play at the Maimi 3? The one Allen intercepted? You know, Bills, you do have Marshawn (FOX censored) and you do have other runners in case he is covered. so why in the blue blazes did you have Losman throwing it, on the Miami 3?
Fate, maybe? I wonder. Now the Bills contracted for 10 million dollars per game to have games held in Toronto. I would like to know who decided what team would play the Bills there this weekend, and when it was decided. But don't you think it is a bit precipitous to have chosen the only AFC East team that does NOT play well in cold climates in December? The Fins haven't won in Buffalo in December in may years, and have a 2-7 recent record for games played in December in cold weather. You should have heard the crew on NFL Network's AFC Playbook Saturday night joking about how the Fins get an automatic ten points for NOT having to play the Bills in the cold! Ten points is just enough to cover that Pennington-to-Fasano TD pass and Carpenter's 50 yard field goal!
Gee, when the Fins play the Jets in New York in early January, will it be unseasonably warm? What will Fate come up with, since this WILL be the game that decides the AFC East?!?
Because the Bills are out of it. The Jets have the Bills (a win likely), the Seahawks (will the curse of the west coast continue?), then the Fins at home. The Pats have it easier with the Raiders (if they can beat the Hawks in the last minutes in Seattle, they can beat the Raiders who looked horrible thursday night vs. Chargers in Oakland), then the Cards in NE (since the Cards have clinched they won't be playing their hardest so the Pats should win), and then the Bills. The Fins have the Niners at home on Dolphin alumni weekend (which is the same event that Fate "caused" the Fins last year to get it up enough to actually beat the Ravens in OT...meaning the Niners, who are playing THE spoiler role of the year, will be prevented by Fate from winning, and besides, Frank Gore is hurt and may not play), then the Chiefs in KC (a likely win even if it is cold, because the Chiefs Defense is bad enough to cover for Tyler "world beater--NOT" Thigpen and TE Gonzales' good play, then the Jets in New York.
I will not predict a winner of the Jets-Fins finale. But consider this:
Earlier in the season matchups, the Jets beat the Fins, the Pats beat the Jets and the Fins beat the Pats.
Recently in late season, the Jets beat the Pats and the Pats beat the Fins.
Does this mean Fate dictates the Fins beat the Jets?
"Everybody knows" that the Patriots will beat the Dolphins this week, week 12, in Dolphins Stadium...and there are all sorts of reasons (some of which I can refute and some I can't, because "everybody" has a darned good reason to pick the Pats, and, if I wasn't a "stupid female" I'd pick the Pats as well...)
1. Matt Cassel just threw for 400 yards against a darned good Jets defense as he took the Pats, down 24-6, to a tie as the clock ran out with an incredible (yes I saw it) pass to Moss as Ty Law, who was brought in precisely to defend Moss, seemed to just stand there and let him catch it. Further, Cassel is NOT the doofus QB that he was in that Fins rout, 38-13, in New England. Therefore, since Cassel is so much better now (and I admit he is), the Pats will win.
2. Revenge. Skipping over 2007 because the Fins couldn't beat a wet noodle in 2007 (does that make the 2007 Ravens lower than a wet noodle?), going back to 2003, when the Pats won both matches, both teams have won one match each, not always at home either. In fact you have to go way back to find a year the Fins won both, and it is too far back to matter in this case. Thus, the Pats should get their revenge as well. To heck with Joey Porter's diatribe about the Pats running up the score on his team last year...the Pats ran up the score on everyone else, too, and well...Joey Porter is just being Joey Porter. Not only do the Pats NOT take him seriously, his own teammates don't either!
3. The Fins special teams bleep. FOX Sports blogs won't let me say the word I want, so what the heck, bleep. I can't remember back to when they did not have good special teams (the late 60s, maybe??). Further, this issue of opponent TDs on punt and kickoff return coverage does not seem to bother Sparano much. Why? It would have driven Shula mad! And, Tony, you DO WANT TO BE thought of as the "next Shula", don't you? Now I do like Tony Sparano. But sometimes I do think he's a bit too laid back. Miami's special team woes should be making him as determined to correct them as it would Shula.
4. "Everybody knows" the Pats, who are in the "twilight" years of a truly great team (the term "dynasty" is arguable), "need" to win this game because if they don't they may not make the playoffs, and the Pats were picked to make the playoffs, so they must...and anyway, the Fins are an up-and-comer so they don't need it as much, and the Pats are old and the Fins are young, yadda yadda yadda.
5. The Pats will beat the Dolphins because the Wildcat will not be the surprise it was when the Fins won. Further, Bellichick will have the Pats stop the Wildcat, which the Fins can't win without.
6. Sure the Pats have lots of injuries, but they have the wisdom and depth as well as the will to playoffs to take care of that problem, and, oh yeah, the Fins have had few injuries because, well, just because. Luck, I guess.
7. Bellichick needs to have his team get revenge on Bill Parcells, for some reason. In the "Bill vs. Bill" matchup, Bellichick trumps Parcells. And oh yeah, Bellichick is a better coach than Sparano.
8. "Everybody knows" the Fins secondary isn't up to stopping Cassel should Cassel have another game like he did against the Jets. I mean, if the Jets couldn't stop him....
9. The Pats were looking ahead to the Chargers, and, further, it was at home and they had no idea what the Dolphins had in store for them in that 38-13 blowout, so the Pats can be excused for blowing that game, but now they know what the Fins are capable of so they won't make that mistake again.
10. The Pats are just a better team, more experienced, especially at making runs for the playoffs, more talented, better coached, and have more incentive on top of wanting revenge, and as with the old George allen Redskins, the "time is now"...and Miami is just gonna have to wait their turn.
Well, I might as well stop at ten reasons why those who are picking the Pats are doing so, at least as far as FOX Sports blogs goes. I could put more but then I'd be repeating myself.
As I said I can refute some and can't' refute others. I will say this. Reason ten is the only reason that makes sense, and, all other things being equal, this reason alone, ESPECIALLY the one about having the experience to make runs for the playoffs (which Miami hasn't been in since the beginning of the decade), would seem to indicate the Pats will most certainly win. And, yes, Bellichick IS a better coach than Sparano, whom the jury is still out on because he's a rookie HC and he has yet to fix Miami's special teams woes as he has been fixing the offense and defense.
But I'll try to refute most of them, anyway.
1. Cassel IS a MUCH BETTER QB now than he was in the early season, more poised and more prepared, and I doubt (Porter's rants aside) that the Fins D will have similar success against him this time. The Pats OL has also improved so Cassel doesn't seem to be getting sacked quite as much. But he is still very sackable. And, those of you who are picking the Pats (which is nearly everyone on this blog, even Bolt Backer 21!), explain to me why, if Cassel is so good, he had to pull a Tom Brady in the second half of that Jets game to pull to a tie when, if he really was Brady, that would not have been necessary and the Pats would have had the game sewed up by the third quarter at least? I mean, sorry, but the Pats made the Jets look like world beaters, and now "everyone" has the Jets winning the AFC East!
I will say this: if the Jets beat the Titans this Sunday, they DESERVE to win the AFC East!
So that, though Cassel is a better QB than he was in that 38-13 clobbering, the Fins D knows one thing: he is STILL no Tom Brady, and Matt Cassel still will not intimidate them. Advantage Fins.
2. Revenge is a funny thing when you have the sometimes erudite Porter saying he wants revenge for that time last year when the Pats were up 21-7 late in the 4th quarter and, instead of sitting on the ball on the last drive of the game, the Pats used running palys instead as if (in Porter's mind) the Pats sought to run up the score even more. So what I am saying is the Pats aren't the only side wanting revenge here. Advantage even, slightly favoring the Pats, but considering Porter DOES have a lot of influence on the play of his defensive cohorts.
3. I will give no argument here as I am not happy with the Fins giving up all those TDs on punt/kickoff return coverage, almost one per game this year. Big advantage to the Pats.
4. I'd say this one is even, because "twilight years" or not, I can't think of a better reason for winning than being 1-15 last year and having won 4 straight. Advantage Fins.
5. This one doesn't wash, because, as I said in a previous post, Bellichick "wrote the book" on the Wildcat/single wing formation for the NFL, so that, if he couldn't defend against it (or, at least, make some adjustments during that 38-13 game, but he couldn't though he knew what he was up against), he had no excuse. And what makes "everybody" think he will be able to stop it Sunday? And, for that matter, do the Dolphins even NEED the Wildcat? Can it be assumed that they MUST use the Wildcat? Or that they will even USE the Wildcat? Oh, and BTW: the Fins lost to the Texans as well as the Ravens despite using the Wildcat, but they also beat the Broncos without it! (Note: So the Bronco defense is a wash? Then what so you call the Pats defense in that first half against the Jets, and the overtime?) Advantage none or even.
6. Here is the reason the Fins have had so few injuries this year: Tony Sparano's tight fisted training program combined with the fact that (as under Shula) the players don't mind playing injured. Turning it around to winning does that. Advantage Fins.
7. I won't even comment on this BS. Advantage none or even.
8. You can't make this claim because one has no idea IF Cassel will have that kind of game against the Fins he had against the Jets. And as long as we're at it, can one say that the Pats will be able to stop Ronnie Brown if Ronnie Brown has another game like he did against the Pats in week 3? So, this kind of argument is false. Advantage none or even.
9. As far as I'm concerned the Pats have NO EXCUSES for losing IN NEW ENGLAND, 38-13, to a team that went 1-15 the year before and had already lost their first two games, one by a blowout. This point of "the Pats didn't know what was coming" is especially ironic considering some of those who are making this claim also have made the claim that Bellichick is a CHEATER! So, which is it? Advantage Fins.
10. On paper, the Pats are a better team, but, as they say, games aren't played on paper but on the field. The game will be a here and now event and one can pretty much throw history out the window (which is funny for me to admit this because my picks usually have some history to back them up), because as they say this game is vitally important for both teams. In "must win" situations, with talent levels fairly even, good coaching on both teams, and both teams expected to rise to the occassion, is there really an advantage here? (I mean, why would the Fins NOT rise to the occassion? They were 0-2, beat the Pats and then the Chargers, another playoff expectant team...then lost ot the Texans and Ravens, and have beaten the Bills, Broncos, Seahawks and Raiders in sucession....all of which they could have lost! Thus they have been "rsing to the occassion" for at least four straight weeks! Why would they stop now?) As I said in the title, the Jets game was also a must win game, and the Pats lost (true, they had the bad luck of not winning the coin toss, but then again they could have stopped Dustin Keller on 3rd and 15, but they didn't.) Oh, and, BTW, this is also a must win game for the Dolphins, and it's in Miami. Advantage Fins.
So, that gives the Dolphins a 5-2 advantage with 3 even. And it is those "evens" that could determine who wins, so we might have a close one here.
If I missed anything or if readers can come up with some darned good reason why the Pats will win after all, let me know.
I was almost ready to give up this blog to my son, "Son of Snorky," (who began his own blog on realsportsblogs but hasn't actually posted anything, so I may take that one over!), due to back injury, or rather, a lotta bit of arthritis mixed with a bit of osteoporosis...yeh, yeh, yeh, you men here don't wanna hear about it! So what the heck, it was too much you know what in the wrong position!
And, oh yeah, the Dolphins losing so horribly to the Ravens four weeks ago! I thought I was going to DIE! Now I can take losing by one point to the Texans--whom they have never beaten, so what else is new? But when it is a team the Fins have pretty much owned (except for a playoff loss), and when it is an improving pass defense against the rookie Flacco, and one of the best AFC defenses against the wonder of the Wildcat--well, the Fins couldn't lose, right? BUT THEY DID AND THEY DID HORRIBLY, so I thought I was going to die, and in an apoplectic fit of anger I guess I did a number on my sacri-iliac! No you know what that night! I had a headache!
Nor did it help the (as I expected) the Fins demolished the Bills the following week, reigned in the horses the week after that, and this past Sunday managed to survive a weak Seattle team. This brought me back to this blog! It was vitally important that Miami beat a weak team. Funny how a rebuilding, up and coming team finds a way to beat the "big boys" (Pats, Chargers, Broncos) but always struggles against teams that look (in the win-loss column) like losers (Texans, Seahawks). But they held off against Seattle (with Yeremiah Bell redeeming himself after letting Texan QB Schaub run it into the endzone in that one-point loss), and with a remaining schedule that mostly includes weaklings (like the Niners, Rams, Raiders and Chiefs) as well as their division rivals, the Fins had to prove to me that they could beat these kinds of teams, no matter which way.
So now we have the AFC East in a bind, with the Jets and Pats at 6-3 and the Fins and Bills at 5-4. Wha haappen to the Bills? According to most experts, it is the fact that beginning with the loss to Miami in week 8, then the Jets in week 9 and the Pats this past week, the problem for the Buffalos is that Edwards can't read a 3-4 defense. If that is indeed the cast, then the Bills are out of it...they have the Fins, Jets and Pats pretty much in the crucial final four weeks. One can assume that the Fins, Jets, and Pats will all still be in the running at that point, so the Bills will have to rely on the old reliables of home field (particularly against the warm weather Fins...one day soon I am going to rant on why the NFL insisted on keeping the Dolphins in the same division with three cold weather teams, and it doesn't get much colder than Buffalo in the late fall/winter!), and that they have played spoiler on the Jets since almost forever. Which could mean---guess what, all you Pats doubters!---Snorky was right to say several weeks ago that counting out the Bradyless bunch was a bad idea.
Now some might claim I made up that headline, "Go Pats" to flip off Jets fans and get Josh Q. Public to notice me. Josh Q WHO? But anyway, I still do not like the Patriots and probably never will as long as Bellichick is their coach. And I can still say I might be a Jets fan today had the Jets been able to ride their AFL success into the AFC in 1970 instead of cave to the newcomer Colts and upcomer Dolphins that year. But instead, Sonny Werblin sold the team to incompetents, and the Jets have been incompetent on and off since then. (It is one thing for the Fins post-Joe Robbie ownership to have gone downhill under Huizinga, who really is one of the worst sports franchise owners out there...I mean, look at the Marlins! and it is one thing for the Fins coaching to have been really lousy for the last 7 years or so. It is clear now that Hiuzinga is letting the football pros run the team now, Parcells and Co in the front office and Sparano and Co on the field, with good results so far. It is another thing for the Jets to have not even been close to a Super Bowl IN FORTY YEARS!!!)
And therein lies the edge to the Pats. As much as one cannot stand Bellichick, as much as one can downgrade Matt Cassel, as much as one can say that new runner of theirs won't make up for the ones who are injured, and as ####ed up as the Pats defense is, the Pats did not let their at home crushing by the Dolphins get ot them. The Pats--as so many had hoped--did NOT go away, did not let losing Brady get ot them, and did not let their fans get them down. As much as I can't stand the Pats, I gotta say this is definitely the team that has dominated the 2000s, that knows how to win when it counts and can come back to the point where (besides the Titans) has the best shot at winning the AFC! Besides Favre, Thomas Jones, and Ty Law (again!), what do the Jets have? So what if they clobbered the hapless Rams? As far as I am concerned, that game says more about the Jets lack of moral fiber than anything else (you know, like the Pats lack of moral fiber everytime they annihilated the Fins last year!)
Now don't take that "GO PATS" headline to mean I am actually rooting for the Pats. Perish the thought! It is just that the Jets are favored and I'm sorry, if Favre has a bad game, and he might because the Pats really are inspired (and not looking ahead to that rematch in Miami against a true nemesis, who outside of last year has always beaten the Pats at least once a season), the Jets won't win, period, no matter what Tom Jones does.
And don't look for anymore "Stupid Female Picks" because obviously my record so far is embarassing and I don't even want to think about it!
A note to Bolt Back 21: don't give up, the Chargers are still going to win the AFC West. Good golly, the Broncos surely don't deserve to!
As a response comment to last week's Stupid Female Picks, another blogger wrote something like this: "scan in your Las Vegas Betting Ticket to me and then I will show your picks some respect."
Well, you can keep that "respect" buddy! I DO THIS FOR FUN! Further, I don't need to get into my Football betting history which goes back to the early 70s, and, actually, even before that when I used to help my dad make office betting pool picks. But I have won enough and lost even more enough to know that "on any given Sunday" is the rule, not the exception that proves it. I mean, the last two weeks...the Broncos DID beat the Bucs even though I said they wouldn't, and the Jets DID beat the Cards the week before that even though I said they wouldn't. And go back and read the first Stupid Female Picks, in which I opened with...
"This is an experiment."
Why? Because though football has changed somewhat--the players are bigger and faster than they used to be, there are more teams than there used to be, and thus the talent gets spread thinner (though there seems to be more of it), and college offenses/defenses have changed somewhat so thus NFL offenses/defenses have had to change somewhat...for example, back in the 60s and 70s nearly every team had a good QB. It seems now colleges aren't making them fast enough, as several of the NFL teams lack a good QB: Detroit, KC, St. Louis, Minnesota (Frerotte's a good back up, not a good starter), Oakland, Houston, and Cleveland. And it seems Miami is only competeitive now because they had the luck of grabbing the Jets' castoff, Pennington, after NY got Brett Favre. The need for a good QB, along with enough offensive and defensive talent is one of the few things that haven't changed. Formations and coaching has changed somewhat, though, and there now seems to be more room for innovation. As I said, "seems." Appearances can be deceiving.
That was why when I started "putting my money where my mouth was" back then I had to have a rational for making picks. I couldn't follow all the teams as much as I would need to, so I subscribed to "Pro Football Weekly" so I could get useful stats so I could say, "So and So's offense can beat Yadda Yadda's defense"--and guess what? "On any given Sunday." Then you have the spread, which is what the betting is based on. Only someone who very closely follows football stats and player to player matchups can (IMHO) beat the spread consistently, and thus win more money than lose. After losing enough money vs the spread (but not straight up), I had to pick my picks judiciously enough to cover the spread as well as pick the winner. So I needed more than pure numbers. This is where momentum, schedule, QB, division rivalry and good old fashioned desire come in.
As I opened last weeks picks, on paper, the Chargers are a better team than the Fins, that is, their QB is better, their receivers are most certainly better, LT is better than Brown at least by reputation (Brown, of course, has been dogged by injuries and inconsistency), and the Bolts defense is generally thought to be better than the Fins' because it consists of reliable veterans. Yet, the Dolphins won, with Porter and company stopping Chambers, then LT, at the goal line, and that innovative Wildcat offense, and Pennington--while not being Favre or Brady or (both) Mannings--has enough arm to well utilize "what may be the NFL's worst receiver corp" (to quote Fox's Marvez, or was it Schein?). And, oh yeah! the Fins just might have one of the NFLs best offensive lines since...that 1972 offensive line? (But that is a stretch; still, who is complaining about their first pick, Jake Long, now??) Finally, the Fins wanted it more last week, they had some momentum left after that delicious Pats win, and the interplay of the Fins "needing" the win over the Chargers need for the win (as they didn't know the Broncos would win later in the day). Besides, they have enough players left from that horrible 2007 team to never ever wnat to go through that again! Thus perhaps the Fins might ALWAYS feel that they "need" the win this year!
Finally, I generally tend to think that my AFC East picks will be more reliable than others' AFC East picks because I generally follow the AFC East more closely (as would any Pats, Fins, Bills or Jets fan). So far, my AFC East picks are 4-1 over two weeks, with the only loss being the Jets win over the Cards. This week, I am picking every single East team to win except the Pats, who play the Chargers. After last weeks win over the Niners, the Pats can afford to "not win"...well, not really, but now the Bolts REALLY NEED TO GET AFTER IT!
Chargers over Patriots
Perhaps Bellichick got all over Matt Cassel during the two week skein with the bye week to get his act together, and perhaps those "old" bodies got a good rest so that when they played the younger Niners they were able to outlast Nolan's crew...and Cassel looked almost as effective as Brady while Moss finally looked like Moss. Further, the interplay again--Miami had just beaten the Bolts while the Bills were getting their buffalo wings clipped by the Cards gave the Pats more motivation (after all, the NFC West IS the NFLs weakest division this year by a long shot...should the Cards falter the Niners might win by default). I had also said (in a comment on another blog) that it was foolhardy to diss the Patriots this early in the season (mostly because the Bills were unbeaten at that point). I was right: both the Bills and the Pats have the same relative records with Bills 4-1 and Pats 3-1. In fact, as the Bills are off (and they need it now big time), one would think the Pats would "need" that win to get themselves a 4-1 matching record, and thus shut up those who have so easily dismissed them. But I do not think this is going to happen. Everyone knows that the Chargers are "struggling". Everyone "knows" that the veteran defense looked "old" against the Sparano's "Wildcat" bunch last week as the Pats had looked two weeks before, so that means the Chargers are going down, right? I suspect that a good dose of the biggest motivating factor in football, revenge, will lift those "old" bodies up to play like young lions again against the team that defeated them in last year's AFC Champ game, and the Chargers, with LT's painful toes and all, will rise to the occasion.
Panthers over Bucs
If I was just coming into following the NFL now, this year, and was pre-disposed to root for an NFC team, I would go with the Panthers (there is no west Texas team to root for, and I generally go against the grain anyway, thus I wouldn't root for the Cowboys). This team is HOT. This team is consistent. This team has beaten good teams as well as bad teams. This team has a good QB that has played all season (unlike the Bucs, who have two fairly good QBs). This team has a certain rhythm (which I suspect the Bucs lack, due to QB changes). Everyone talks about the strength of the NFC East, but I think the NFC South is just as competitive (and maybe moreso). Yes, the Bucs "need" this win more, being a game behind the Panthers. Yes, the game is in Tampa Bay. Yes, Garcia is back. But will Garcia fit into the rhythm that the Bucs have developed? Will Garcia be able to develop his own rhythm this week in practice? Since I trust in Carolina's rhythm more than the Bucs, I go with the Panthers.
And the rest:
Falcons over Bears: It's in Atlanta, I like Ryan over Orton, and I am very impressed with what the Falcs did in Green Bay last week. I would say any young QB such as Orton could look like a Tom Brady against the not only winless Lions but the hopeless Lions as well, so that, although this game could go either way, I have to make a pick so I pick the Falcons.
Dolphins over Texans: Yes, I know...Miami is coming off a big win over Chargers and the Texans are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Colts. The Texans are NOT the terrible 0-4 team their record indicates, and Schaub is back (maybe), and it's in Houston. AND the Fins have NEVER beaten the Texans (plus the fact that when the Oilers were in Houston, they gave the Dolphins fits, especially in the Earl Campbell era). I can really understand why several "pickers" are picking the Texans. So here is why I am picking Miami: one, there is a DAMNED GOOD REASON the Texans lost that 17 point lead last week--Sage Rosenfels (the Fins got rid of him for a damned good reason, too), and the fact that whoever had the ball during those fumbles couldn't hang onto it! Even if Schaub plays, will their players be able to keep the ball? Will the Texans coaching staff have a fix for the Wildcat? Will the Texans OL be able to stop one of the leagues best pass rushes? And, oh yeah, the Fins are still in the running but not the Texans.
Colts over Ravens: Just when I thought the Colts were perhaps finished for the year and their defense was yucky they play like one would expect the Colts to play and overcome a 17 point deficit against Texans. Just when I thought they had no running game they come up with one. Now the Ravens are good, but when the going gets tough the tough get going, and this could be the Colts' last shot at winning this division for a long time. Just a hunch.
Vikings over Lions: Of course.
Saints over Raiders: It is crunch time for the Saints.
Jets over Bungles: Because they're the BUNGLES! ( I refuse to call the Bungles by their rightful name until they can win one!)
Redskins over Rams: Of course.
Broncos over Jaguars: It is in Denver. Living at about 6,000 feet myself, I know the importance of altitude. Since the Jags live at sea level...(and they are still all ####ed up)
Cowboys over Cardinals: If it was just Warner vs. Romo I'd pick Warner, but it isn't, so I won't.
Niners over Eagles: Because the Niners don't have players questioning everything the way McNabb does...a rule of thumb for me is never pick the team where one of its most important players is questioning the play of the rest of the team.
Packers over Seahawks: I can't believe how far the Hawks have fallen! They should have the NFC West sowed up by now! Since I can't figure out why this team is doing so poorly, I must go with the Packers, who still have a shot at their division title.
Giants over Browns: Of course. Why is a mismatch like this on Monday night? (Don't reply, I know why! The same reason the Fins aren't on this year!)
Yeah, I know...I must be a complete #### for picking the Dolphins over the Chargers because as we all know the Chargers are a better team and they have LT and Rivers and that Fins win over the Pats was a fluke and well they were 1-15 last year, so!
The Chargers are a better team? Maybe. We'll see. But for one thing they haven't been the better team IN MIAMI since that awesome 1981 playoff game where the Chargers FG kicker (I forget his name) kicked the winning points in over time in one of the most exciting playoff games perhaps ever...the one where Don Strock took over for Woodley late in the 2nd quarter and helped put 21 pts. or so on the board in about ten minutes, and put them ahead early in the third quarter. The most recent Fins win was in 2006 during that 6 game winning streak under Nick Saban, where Gus Frerotte pulled out a win in the last minutes or so. In that game, LT was nearly "404".
Well, of course, the Chargers have a better QB now, LT is still going strong, and the Chargers will probably still make the playoffs even if they lose this game. And we all know the Fins pass defense is not the league's best or even close to it. They could not shut down Favre or Warner, and stopping Cassel is no proof that they are any good. Because of that, no one has really run against them so we don't know, statistically, if they can stop LT or not. And I am sure they are running those "Wildcat" films for the players to get a grasp of what "the Sparanos" did to the Pats in week 3, and thus be prepared for it. To sum up, logic says the Fins pass defense won't be able to stop Rivers, and there is no proof that their run defense can stop LT.
But all of you picking the Bolts don't seem to realize that it may not matter if the Fins can control the ball on offense. The biggest surprise this year so far has been their offense--and, after all, isn't "offense" the big whoop-tee-doo this year, what with the rules practically telling DBs they can't so much of anything to stop receivers? Another stat that Bolts pickers may not consider is the fact that other than that Pennington interception by the Jets at the last minute in week one, the Dolphins have had no other turnovers...Porter and company forced a bunch by the Pats which contributed to Miami's blowout. I personally think (in the tradition of Miami-SD matches), turnovers by the Bolts will be a factor.
The biggest reason I am picking Miami though is that they MUST WIN with the Bills 4-0, the Jets 2-2, and the Pats likely to go 3-1 after beating the Niners (which, they too, must win if only so that the Pats can get over that terrible loss to Miami). On the other hand, the Chargers, with only the Broncos as real competition, can sweat another loss early in the season (especially if the Bucs beat the Broncos), which leads me to...
Bucs over Broncos
When Brian Griese beat the Bears I was flabberghasted, doing it in a matter of minutes behind a bunch. But when he beat the Rodgers' Packers I took notice. For one thing, the NFC South is right now competitive because the Panthers are starting to look like a more serious contender, and the Saints (and possibly even the Falcons) are starting to recover their pre-season playoff contender "look." As with the stronger than usual AFC East, the NFC South is not going to allow any team to "look ahead" this early in the season. As for the Broncos, the loss to the Chiefs (as much as I like it) is not indicative of typical Broncos play--still the Broncs defense DOES have the makings of serious problems heading down the line. Which is why Cutler and company, still a game ahead of the Chargers in a weaker division than usual, can afford to let up. The Bucs need it more. Much more.
My other Stupid Picks:
Titans over Ravens: Titans defense, which is even better than Steelers, will stop the Ravens (who are fairly unstoppable otherwise)
Panthers over Chiefs: Panthers, in stronger division, need it more (even though I really want Chiefs to win)
Lions over Bears: Now this pick really is stupid! But I have to have an upset special!
Packers over Falcons
Colts over Texans: Manning needs to get after it, or go down in infamy 9and be considered less than his brother Eli)
Gaints over Seahawks: I have yet to see the Hawks impress, but I am not convinced the Giants are invincible, either (good work, Plax!)
Eagles over Redskins: Because. NFC East, you know...
Cards over Bills: Because the Cards looked a whole lot better against the Jets than the score indicated (the Jets 32-0 lead at half was because of Cards turnovers), and, besides, how much longer can the Bills keep it up?
Cowboys over Bungles: Because they are the BUNGLES!
Patriots over Niners: Because the Pats MUST win this game and get over their collapse against the Fins.
Steelers over Jags: Because the Jags seem to be cursed, and it is very hard to pick a team to win that lost a player to a leg amputation. But I hope the Jags win nevertheless.
Saints over Vikes: Because I am deep down in my heart a Saints fan, as well as a whole slew of my in-laws.
No way, no way, if you asked me in August, would I say the Bills would be atop the NFL's screwiest division, the AFC East, EVER, in 2008.
When I started following football in my teens (owing to my dad's frustrating habit of listen and/or watching the Giants, who, in the 60s and 70s were totally incompetent--for instance, Fran Tarkenton started there, played poorly, then went to Minnesota where he became all-pro and lost two Super Bowls in the process of becoming one of the greats and running a consistently powerful team), in New York, as bad as the "Jints" were I found myself rooting for the Jets--JoeWillie Namath of course--I named my dog for him) and paying attention to the AFL. Well, in 1970 the Colts moved in to make the Jets (who beat the Shula Colts in Supe 3) rivalry more real, AND at the same time Shula took over the Dolphins, who were horrendous up til then...and made them an instant contender (and arguably created the best team of all time, undefeated, there in 72-73). Well, the Colts lost Unitas, the Jets lost Namath to injury, the Fins had Earl Morrall--who had been Tarky's back up on the Jints--take them undefeated through the Steeler AFC Champ win when Griese took over at halftime and inspired Shula's crew to victory from them.
Well, some team here had to be the dog, and that dog was the Plunkett led New England Patriots (formerly Boston). And all through this era of Dolphin domination, OJ Simpson provided the only real serious threat to the Fins. In case you forgot, the "Juice" played for the Bills, as in "Miami has the oranges, but Buffalo has the Juice."
Well, thirty or so years later, things have changed, boy, have changed. Miami has been terrible for the most part for the last four or five years or so, mostly because of no good "Marino-esque" or ever "Griese-esque" QB. The Colts are gone to the AFC North. The Jets have played spoiler--yes, the Jets have pretty much kept up their usual role. And the Pats? Well we know what happened to them. Basically, if you look at the 72-74 standings, (pretty much Miami, Buffalo, Jets, New England), the 2006-2007 standings have been pretty much the opposite (New England, Jets, Buffalo, Miami). But a lot can happen in 35 years, so this won't explain the "AFC East Effect"
The AFC East Effect is this: Over any extended period of time, no one team can dominate completely, but in the short run, one team almost always is dominant, in the division and the League. In other words, when you compare domination of the AFC East with other divisions, dominant teams in other divisions usually hold sway longer in the long run (but not the short run). With a very short period of quick rebuidling, still, Dallas will always be a dominant team in the NFC East (adjusted for the fact that the NFC East is consistently the NFL's strongest). In the NFC North (formerly central), no team has been truly dominant since the Vikings of the 70s and the Bears of the 80s. In the NFC South, no team is truly a dominant team, either in the league or in the division. In the NFC West, the most dominant team has been Seattle, but the Hawks came from a strong position in the AFC West.
In the rest of the AFC, the Steelers, no matter what, are always the dominant team in the AFC North (formerly central)--I attribute that to family ownership of the Rooneys. In fact, the Steelers have been on of the top teams consistenly since 1972!!! Amazing!!! No one else can say that! In fact, I would find it hard to even argue that the Steelers, during this 35 year period, have even been a weak team. Must be karma...they were among the NFLs consistently worst teams from the 1930s through the 1971 season. In the AFC South, the Colts have been THE team for the last couple of years, but before that, the Titans were, and could be again this year. But we are talking the last couple of years here, not the last ten or so as with the Pats.
The AFC East Effect?
In fact, if an AFC East team is truly dominant, it is also a serious Super Bowl contender. In reality only three teams have truly dominanted the AFC East in the past 35 years: first, Miami, then Buffalo (late 80s early 90s), now New England...but I think that the Brady-less Bunch will concede this year. Not because they were clobbered by what was the worst team in 2007 (and maybe history!--but you really can't say that, because half that Fins team is gone).All three have had numerous Supe Teams, some wins, some losses, but they definitely deserved to be there. Now, what made them so dominant?
1. The AFC East is consistenly the NFLs weakest, so it is relatively easy to dominate it...but that doesn't explain League domination.
2. League domination can be attributed to smart front office (this alone expalins why the Jets can't and won't cut it), consistent winning coaching (Shula and Bellicheck), good drafting and the other reasons teams dominate...ALONG WITH BEING IN THE LEAGUES WEAKEST DIVISION, which means less stress, winning the division early, and maybe fewer injuries because stars can be rested.
So, if the Pats skeen is over, who will replace them? This is where the Bills come in. Why the Bills? One, the Bills are now in first and they got there with a very young team, an up-and-coming (I think) QB, a pretty good offense--one that can pull a game out at the last minute--and apparently a pretty good defense. They have all the attributes the Fins and the Pats did when they became the up-and-coming teams. Unlike the old OJ Bills, this Buffalo team is well-rounded offensively, not depending on one player. Plus, the Bills have a recent winning history--winning tradition I think is important in the AFC East, because if two or more teams are vying to take the place of a dominant team on the downswing, a winning edge might be what puts a team over the top. Perhaps New Yorkers though Farve would put the Jets in this position. In game one, it sure looked that way... But the Mangini Jets have the same problem they almost always seem to have--they #### up their player management: in getting Farve--who, as everyone knows, has "retired" several times--they figured they could give up Chad Pennington who for some reason New Yorkers have never liked. Where they #### up is in thinking he'd go to the Vikings. BUT NO! They sent a perfectly good interrum/stop gap/whatever QB to a division rival! Good work, Jettsies! Now the Fins will not compete for a playoff spot this year...I don't care how great they looked vs. the Pats, the Fins are NOT playoff caliber and probably won't be until 2010 the earliest (several commentators have said the Fins give the Pats headaches every year so that 38-13 win is no big deal). But, they DO have GM Bill Parcells and Sparano, who built an exceptional Dallas offense and knows what it takes to win, even if it means going outside the box (the "Wildcat" offense, founded at U of Arkansas and, BTW, a book about which was written by none other than Bill Bellicheck! What is HIS excuse for not being able to stop Ronnie Brown?) And they are completely rebuilding instead of doing what Cameron and Saban tried to do, which was patchwork, and might have the youngest team in the league (along with the Chiefs). But at QB, they did bring in a "retread" so-to-speak, Pennington, who, I think can do some good with the offense and can teach Chad Henne, who might be their QB of the future. Further, the 2009 draft will have more QB prospects than have been available for a long time. On defense (which still needs a great deal of work, but I like Porter's chutzpah), I am surprised that they did so well against what's-his-name, but good QBs (Farve and Warner) can still pretty much have their way with the pass...now let's see if their pass defense can act anywhere's near the way they did in week three.
The Fins aren't ready, and the Jets probably never will be, to take over from the Pats. Ipso ####, it will be the Bills for now.
And thanks to NJPhone for his post that goes like this: the Jets beat Miami, New England beats the Jets and Miami beats New England... It is no WTF about it! Welcome to the AFC East!
Glad to see Bills in first, not Pats(ies)...and no, Fox Power Rankings, Bellichick (good God when am I gonna learn to spell his name correctly? Never! Bwa-Ha-Ha! He doesn't deserve it!) is not the greatest coach ever (that distinction still goes to the UNDEFEATED 17-0 Don Shula!) Of course, I really don't expect Bills to stay that way... But Buffalo deserves some happiness in one of the gloomiest cities I've ever seen...
Good God, Fins fans, be as pleased as punch Ronnie Brown and Co. wiped out the Brady-less bunch, but Puh-LEAZE stop all this #### talk about a "Fins dynasty"! Parcells, folks, is only the manager, not the coach, and they'll need more than Chad Pennington to build such a thing (but what I can't figure out is how the defense played so well...)
In case you all haven't heard, Texas A & M in College Station has taken aboard its brothers and sisters in Aggie-ness from the sister campus in Ike-stricken Galveston, land of the Sea Aggies (including my son, in Marine Fisheries Management major), joining land and sea Aggies together...but can "we" beat Texas Tech this year? (and of course, the t-sips in Austin again...)
one thought crossed my mind: did Belichick know beforehand that his so-called "cheating" at the 2002 Superbowl vs. Rams (filming their walk through) might be investigated by Congress, following up the NFL's investigation which the coach had to know was ongoing? And/or, did the Pats players, sensing that if they failed to go undefeated, perhaps the NFL/Congress would go easier on them, so they purposefully blew it? By three points, no less?
