BTD, besides the Dolphins, that is. Since I am a Fins fan do not expect me not to pick them to beat Ravens. I wouldn't pick against them if they were playing the Steelers. Or the Titans. Or anyone. But that's me, and, who knows, this might be the only wrong pick of the weekend. But I'm gonna back my team anyway! Checking the yearly stats, the Ravens are better in every category except turnover-takeaway, with Miami at + 17. The Ravens are no slouches either. And, wouldn't you know it, the primary reason Baltimore won the Oct. 17 game, 27-13, was because Chad Pennington did something he has rarely done this season: Chad threw an interception at the score of 3-3, and the Ravens didn't look back from that. And other miscues from the home team, especially on special teams. The Ravens also have more talent but I usually don't count what's "on paper." So that, all else being equal, provided Miami does not turn over the ball (they have had lots of practice at that) to a team that can easily capitalize on turnovers, and provided Chad is his usual calm, poised, leadership self...and Porter and Co. can say "hello" to rookie phenom Flacco a few times, and Bess and Ginn and Fasano can overcome the awesome Ed Reed just enough to score, then the Fins will win. And then there is the "Rodney Dangerfield" factor...the Ravens claim no one respects them, but they have nothing on the lack of respect the Fins have had to put up with all year. CB Andre Goodman, who was on that 2007 joke, has repeatedly said other teams' players have looked at this 2008 team with the same jaundiced eye as they looked at the 2007 team. Further, as the season was coming to a close, most everyone said that the Jets would win this past Sunday because the Patriots "deserved" the AFC East title over the Fins because the Pats "are better" and are "more respected, thus teams won't want to play them" (as to infer everyone wants to play "weakest link" Miami!!! I bet you the Chargers don't!!! Chargers haven't beaten Fins in Miami since the 1981 overtime thriller won by Bernichke FG in OT. Sorry Bolt but I had to say it). I've said it before and I'll say it again, loud and clear: THE DOLPHINS THRIVE ON LACK OF RESPECT!!! Keep disrespecting them! PLEASE!

That is why, in case you couldn't figure out my last post, I want every blogger who is not a Fins fan to pick the Ravens!!!

And another final thing: Revenge. Not necessarily on the Ravens because of that Oct. 17 game. No. The holdovers from that 2007 team want to beat Cam "1-15" Cameron in the worst way. Those holdovers include Porter, Holliday, Roth, Tim Allen, Jason Allen, Reinaldo Hill, Yeremiah Bell, Andre Goodman from the defense and Ronnie Brown, Ted Ginn, Dave Martin, Vernon Carey, Samson Satele, and others on offense. Nothing motivates like motivation, and if Miami wins you can chalk it up to a greater motivation.

On to the rest.

Cards over Falcons. No I'm not kidding. Again, the Falcons are a better and certainly more balanced offensively...basically, the Cards are the only playoff team with a paultry running game. One can assume that the Cards will have some difficulty stopping Michael Turner. But one can, if Atlanta's defense stats bear things out, expect Warner and the Boldin-Fitzgerald duo to do very well, well enough to overcome any kind of Atlanta lead should they not turn the ball over. Falcons are -3 in the giveaway department. But yes, it'll be close.

Eagles over Vikings. I was gonna pick the Vikes out of past love (I was a Vikes fan in the Joe Kapp era), but good golly miss molly, who in the blue blazes will their QB be? Neither Frerotte nor Jackson are likely to be effective playoff QBs, and the Adrian Peterson show is going to get old if the Vikes can't figure out another way to effectively move the ball. So based on the fact that McNabb has been effective in past palyoff games, I have to go with the Eagles...but the Vikes will win if either QB is effective and their outstanding defense makes Philly turn over the ball.

Chargers over Colts. By all rights, the Colts should win with Manning, but this is the Chargers we're talking about. I agree with Bolt Backer 21...the noise in SD will drive Manning crazy, the Chargers seem to have the Colts number, and the Philip Rivers Band appears to be peaking exactly as a playoff team should at the right time, 8-8 be damned.

And a final note to Pats and Jets fans:

Stop your whining!

So the almighty "dyansty" Patriots needed the Jets to win Sunday in order to back into the playoffs? YOU CALL YOURSELVES A DYNASTY??!!?? STOP YOUR STUPID WHINING and admit the Fins are a better TEAM (with the accent on TEAM. The "i' in the Patriots was more pronounced than the "i' in Dolphins).

So the Bretts...according to NFL GameDay..."expected" Pennington to go to the Packers in exchange for Favre and "did not want him going to Miami because Miami was so bad last year" and thus they "felt bad" for Chad after the Fins picked him up AFTER THE JETS THREW HIM AWAY...

You take the cake, Jettsies!! No wonder they call you "the Wets" in Miami! You people have excuses for everything, you CHOKERS! Imagine! Blaming Miami for their own success this year! Only from the Jets!!!

And don't get me started on the Pokes...I could write a week's worth of posts on this subject, but that would drive Hanahan crazy and we need him ready to root for the Dolphins Sunday, so I won't.

Now that I've covered the AFC East, what about the rest?

Don' t take my word for it because I generally don't follow the other divisions, but...

I really like underdogs, and, BTD (besides the Dolphins), who is a better underdog this year to make the playoffs than the Falcons?

Thus, I want to Falcons to make the playoffs. That means I DON"T WANT THE COWBOYS! Heck, I'm a resident of Texas and I don't want the Cowboys???? No, because in honor of my late dad I also root for the Giants, who before he died finally had some satisfaction from this bunch, what in the Lawrence Taylor years and now.

Besides, I've always thought the Pokes were overrated. America's Team? Gimme a Break! It is funny (sarcastic) how owner Jerry Jones is belly-aching about Barber and using that as an excuse for his team's giving up that game to Pittsburgh last Sunday. It is always excuses with this bunch! The Dallas Cowboys always seem to think the NFL "owes" them a playoff birth, and then when they get one they tend to screw up early in the playoffs.

Then, who do I like--Bucs or Panthers? I said in an earlier post that if I was just starting out watching NFL games and (being in a non-team market) had to pick a team to root for, it would be the Panthers. I like their balance between offense and defense--not overwhelming offense and not overwhelming defense (too bad the Steelers can't say that, especially now, but the Steelers have always, since 1972, been defense oriented, good offense or not. Now, I think their offense is mediocre at best). I do not dislike the Bucs, however. My relatives live in the Tampa Bay area and thus are Bucs fans. Thus, having to choose, I chose the Panthers not because of Monday night but because the Panthers would be a change.

I tend to want to root for the Bears, but way back in the late 60s under Bud Grant and with Joe Kapp I was a Vikes fan as well. I say the Vikes win out. Something has been eating at the Bears this season...they have not been consistent or effective the way they have been. I have a warm spot in my heart also for Gus Frerotte who played in Miami in their mediocre-before-the-2007-fall year (2005, leading them to 8-8 with a big finale over the Pats). and even if Frerotte doesn't play, Adrian Peterson is amazing and I don't see many remaining teams stopping him including the Bears. Third, I don't trust Kyle Orton, who is better than Bobby Douglass but worse than what's his name (you know who I mean, the guy who won the Super Bowl).

In the AFC North, I don't like the Steelers (because of their playoff rivalry with Miami and Oakland in the 70s...I mean, how can I possibly root for them???), but I have always respected them, don't have much against them now, letting by-gones be by-gones, for one thing because they have the goat of the Cowboys. Yet I still don't really like them, because as I said before they are all defense, and, as I said in another post, they are on TV just about every week and it would be nice to see someone else besides the Steelers on TV (you know, like the Dolphins?). As for the Ravens...I don't see why the Ravens can't overcome the Steelers to win the division and I hope they do. Their win over Miami has to count for something! But the Ravens have good offense and defense, both, I like the rookie Flacco, and the Ravens (who LOST to the Fins last year) are another "resurgent" "underdog", so goooooo Ravens!

In the AFC South which is already decided with the Titans, it would really be cool if the Texans could find their way to overcome the Colts. I don't like the Colts either. No running game..okay, no consistent running game and it's all Peyton Manning, who I am sick of hearing about. But I do like the Texans! Schaub, had he been healthy all year and they didn't have to rely on that god-awful Sage Rosenfels (gosh I wish Miami would have played the Texans with Rosenfels--they would have won easily), would have the Texans in the running and the run-less and often defense-less Colts on the run. NEXT YEAR, TEXANS! Peyton Manning will be wishing he'd stayed in bed Sundays!

The Jags? No comment!

I will say this for the AFC West:  Dear Al Davis: PLEASE SELL THE RAIDERS! When I wasn't rooting for the Fins in the AFC back in the 70s and 80s I was rooting for the black and silver. It has pained me, since that Supe appearance fairly recently, for you, Mr. Davis, to have completely let this team go to pot. And, Dear Chargers: The past is prologue, and you need to start rebuilding that team. LT is a nice guy but he needs help. Antonio Gates? Who? Dear Broncos: Do you enjoy forcing people who bet on you to lose hundreds or thousands because you can't seem to get your act together, losing when you should win and winning when you should lose? Keep that up, and you just might win the Super Bowl! and, Dear Chiefs: I don't care  what you say, do you really think the future is with a guy named Thigpen??

NFC West? Because they're another "resurgent" team (if you can call "resurgent" a team that hasn't been in the playoffs in 33 years!), GO CARDS! A few weeks ago on NFL Network Anquan Boldin gave an interview and was a real gentleman. But look out next year for the Niners, who are "talking spoiler" according to NFL.com. Actually, the 49ers have a history of playing spoiler when they weren't in the playoffs themselves. But it would seem Singletary has them going in the right direction at least and should challenge next year. The Seahawks might also challenge. If nothing else I am impressed by the play of Seneca Wallace.

NFC East: The Gaints have clinched, but can they get past that Plax BS? I mean I have fully expected them to win another Supe, but now I am not sure. If another NFC East team had to make the playoffs I'd go with the Eagles. The Skins are finished, and I wish the Cowboys were--stop hyping these turkeys! Romo isn't Aikens, or even Staubach, and their coach is no Tom Landry. They were lucky to have Bill Parcells when they had him. and yet, I have to thank the Cowboys for four things:

Tony Sparano, Jason Ferguson, Akin Ayodele and Tony Fasano. And, oh yeah, Bill Parcells. Go Dolphins!

Should that be the Sports Page Headline in the Miami Herald this morning?...Not really, because, well, some here might think it's "the curse" but I beg to differ...Houston's not-so-unlikely last minute win over Miami was not only not simply a curse but just a bit better football for just a bit longer. I would like to have seen the face of Ronnie "slinging arrows" Brown when Matt Schaub ran that ball into the endzone--the same way the Fins D refused to let LT run it in last week!

So the Texans--as I said a few days ago who are NOT the 0-4 team their record indicates--and, as some other blogger said (who picked the Texans) that the Dolphins and Texans were like mirror images of each other--young, aggressive teams which tend to do well against the run (which, Brown's stats being noted on the game...I don't recall the Texans leading rusher...were not thast great)--won by just being a little more aggressive yesterday, 29-28...a win not unlike the other three times the Texans beat the Fins...three points or less! And because Matt Schaub, unlike Matt Cassel and Phil Rivers, exposed the weaknesses of the Dolphins defense backfield for a huge amount of yardage.

I am sad the Fins lost after such stellar efforts against Pats and Chargers...but I am also glad the Texans, a fairly decent team after all (but for the stupid play of Rosenfels--get rid of him, Texans!), are no longer winless because they shouldn't have been in the first place! Good for you all, Texans! Now go out next week and whoop it up against the hopeless Lions. Just don't get smug the way the Fins did!

THAT'S RIGHT, DOLPHINS...YOU GOT SMUG! STUPID, STUPID...YOU BEAT THE PATS AND CHARGERS, KNOWN TO BE GOOD TEAMS, AND NOW YOU THINK BECAUSE YOU'RE AHEAD LATE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER (AGAINST A QB THAT APPARENTLY TOOK YOUR PASS DEFENSE APART ALL DAY, NO LESS) YOU CAN GO OUT AND CELEBRATE AT 28-23??? AND NOW YOU HAVE PAID FOR IT! WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT IT???

You are going to go out next Sunday and beat the Ravens at home, that's what! And you don't even need an Peyton Manning to do it. Neither the Texans, nor the Bolts nor Pats, really stopped the Wildcat, so use it, and since "everybody knows" you can't run on the Ravens, do it anyway, because they can't stop the pass. And you pass rushers (Porter had another good day in Reliant Stadium) and especially you secondary folks, Flacco is a rookie, okay? A pretty good rookie (or else he wouldn't be starting) but a rookie nevertheless who couldn't do squat against a Colts defense that IMHO is outshined by the Fins anyway. You know what you have to do.

And the Sunday after that, you are going to beat the Bills at home.

And onto my other stupid picks...

Good golly Miss Molly! the Rams beat the Redskins--in Washington! Only one or two of the bolder bloggers picked the "hapless" Rams, and they did it by doing something no one else has been able to do to the Skins--force turnovers, and they--like 4 or 5 other teams--did it in the closing seconds (in fact time had expired). HOORAY FOR THE RAMS!

Thus the Rams and Texans have won their first games this year, and good for them. Don't like to see winless teams.

Well, my pick of the Falcons paid off. Another last second win, and this one makes the NFC North bolluxed up with no one who clearly standout (except the Lions, who just might do what the Fins couldn't and wouldn't do last year, go winless!). So the Bears, who looked at one point like they would easily take this division, are now 3-3. The Vikes, who looked like they really needed more than Frerotte to win with, are now 3-3. The Packers, who have looked either good or bad with Rodgers, are also 3-3. Sorta mediocre, these three, wouldn't you say? Now, look at the NFC South: the Panthers (wha-happen?), the Bucs (thanks you, Mr. Garcia!), and the Falcons (holder of the best rookie QB out there this year) are all 4-2 and the Saints are 3-3. Statistically the NFC East is the strongest division but I'm not buying it.

Panthers! Whaa haapen? Two words: Jeff Garcia. Okay, three more words: home field advantage...the Bucs haven't lost there in a long time. And, oh yeah, you guys were buying into that "the Panthers are playoff bound this year" stuff. As with the Fins, you folks got smug and you paid the price for it. But unlike the Fins you looked bad in losing!

And the Vikes eke out the Lions. And the Saints raid the Raiders. And the Jets buck the Bungles. And Cards clip the Cowboys (and apologies to that Cards fan who walloped my Pokes pick--see comments on previous post--you were right after all about the Cards). And Eagles fly over the Niners, who are apparently sinking fast. And the Packers drown the Seahawks.

Finally, three incredible wins that will reverberate around the league for at least this week.

I had picked the Broncos (I have to keep reminding myself never to pick this height of inconsistency!) over the Jaguars because it was at Mile High. Well, at the end of the day, it was the Cutler kids who needed air. Nice going, Jags! You needed the win with the Colts winning as well as Texans, and you did it! Have a nice week off.

I had picked the Colts, but figured it'll go either way anyway. WRONG! Peyton is back. The Colts D appears to be back. That momentum they built up against Texans in the last quarter last week carried through...what happened to the Ravens, another team that looked promising at the beginning of the year, have lost three straight now and have not looked too bad doing it (looked okay vs. Steelers and didn't look too bad vs. Titans, but what happened to that highly ranked defense??). Seems the Colts have rediscovered they are a good team after all.

And now we come to Chargers-Patriots, with the Bolts belting Bellichick's crew in a 30-10 win that took some of the sting off the Texans win over my aqua-orange boys. This puts the Chargers only one game behind the feckless horses...and they go to Buffalo next week (good luck...or will the Bills be looking ahead to Fins?) while Pats have the Broncs. Meanwhile, the Jets (who seem to have the easiest schedule in the NFL...why is it they always seem to have teams they can beat...Brett Favre, maybe?) and Pats are both at 3-2! the Bills are 4-1 and the Fins are 2-3, which means this now "not least" division is still up for grabs as only two games separate top from bottom. That is not something that happens too often. And kuddos to the Bolts, who clearly got the revenge they wanted...but what's gonna happen if they meet the Pats in the playoffs?

Remember bakc to the 70s and the Steelers-Raiders? This matchup seems similar.

As a response comment to last week's Stupid Female Picks, another blogger wrote something like this: "scan in your Las Vegas Betting Ticket to me and then I will show your picks some respect."

Well, you can keep that "respect" buddy! I DO THIS FOR FUN! Further, I don't need to get into my Football betting history which goes back to the early 70s, and, actually, even before that when I used to help my dad make office betting pool picks. But I have won enough and lost even more enough to know that "on any given Sunday" is the rule, not the exception that proves it. I mean, the last two weeks...the Broncos DID beat the Bucs even though I said they wouldn't, and the Jets DID beat the Cards the week before that even though I said they wouldn't. And go back and read the first Stupid Female Picks, in which I opened with...

"This is an experiment."

Why? Because though football has changed somewhat--the players are bigger and faster than they used to be, there are more teams than there used to be, and thus the talent gets spread thinner (though there seems to be more of it), and college offenses/defenses have changed somewhat so thus NFL offenses/defenses have had to change somewhat...for example, back in the 60s and 70s nearly every team had a good QB. It seems now colleges aren't making them fast enough, as several of the NFL teams lack a good QB: Detroit, KC, St. Louis, Minnesota (Frerotte's a good back up, not a good starter), Oakland, Houston, and Cleveland. And it seems Miami is only competeitive now because they had the luck of grabbing the Jets' castoff, Pennington, after NY got Brett Favre. The need for a good QB, along with enough offensive and defensive talent is one of the few things that haven't changed. Formations and coaching has changed somewhat, though, and there now seems to be more room for innovation. As I said, "seems." Appearances can be deceiving.

That was why when I started "putting my money where my mouth was" back then I had to have a rational for making picks. I couldn't follow all the teams as much as I would need to, so I subscribed to "Pro Football Weekly" so I could get useful stats so I could say, "So and So's offense can beat Yadda Yadda's defense"--and guess what? "On any given Sunday." Then you have the spread, which is what the betting is based on. Only someone who very closely follows football stats and player to player matchups can (IMHO) beat the spread consistently, and thus win more money than lose. After losing enough money vs the spread (but not straight up), I had to pick my picks judiciously enough to cover the spread as well as pick the winner. So I needed more than pure numbers. This is where momentum, schedule, QB, division rivalry and good old fashioned desire come in.

As I opened last weeks picks, on paper, the Chargers are a better team than the Fins, that is, their QB is better, their receivers are most certainly better, LT is better than Brown at least by reputation (Brown, of course, has been dogged by injuries and inconsistency), and the Bolts defense is generally thought to be better than the Fins' because it consists of reliable veterans. Yet, the Dolphins won, with Porter and company stopping Chambers, then LT, at the goal line, and that innovative Wildcat offense, and Pennington--while not being Favre or Brady or (both) Mannings--has enough arm to well utilize "what may be the NFL's worst receiver corp" (to quote Fox's Marvez, or was it Schein?). And, oh yeah! the Fins just might have one of the NFLs best offensive lines since...that 1972 offensive line? (But that is a stretch; still, who is complaining about their first pick, Jake Long, now??) Finally, the Fins wanted it more last week, they had some momentum left after that delicious Pats win, and the interplay of the Fins "needing" the win over the Chargers need for the win (as they didn't know the Broncos would win later in the day). Besides, they have enough players left from that horrible 2007 team to never ever wnat to go through that again! Thus perhaps the Fins might ALWAYS feel that they "need" the win this year!

Finally, I generally tend to think that my AFC East picks will be more reliable than others' AFC East picks because I generally follow the AFC East more closely (as would any Pats, Fins, Bills or Jets fan). So far, my AFC East picks are 4-1 over two weeks, with the only loss being the Jets win over the Cards. This week, I am picking every single East team to win except the Pats, who play the Chargers. After last weeks win over the Niners, the Pats can afford to "not win"...well, not really, but now the Bolts REALLY NEED TO GET AFTER IT!

Chargers over Patriots

Perhaps Bellichick got all over Matt Cassel during the two week skein with the bye week to get his act together, and perhaps those "old" bodies got a good rest so that when they played the younger Niners they were able to outlast Nolan's crew...and Cassel looked almost as effective as Brady while Moss finally looked like Moss. Further, the interplay again--Miami had just beaten the Bolts while the Bills were getting their buffalo wings clipped by the Cards gave the Pats more motivation (after all, the NFC West IS the NFLs weakest division this year by a long shot...should the Cards falter the Niners might win by default). I had also said (in a comment on another blog) that it was foolhardy to diss the Patriots this early in the season (mostly because the Bills were unbeaten at that point). I was right: both the Bills and the Pats have the same relative records with Bills 4-1 and Pats 3-1. In fact, as the Bills are off (and they need it now big time), one would think the Pats would "need" that win to get themselves a 4-1 matching record, and thus shut up those who have so easily dismissed them. But I do not think this is going to happen. Everyone knows that the Chargers are "struggling". Everyone "knows" that the veteran defense looked "old" against the Sparano's "Wildcat" bunch last week as the Pats had looked two weeks before, so that means the Chargers are going down, right? I suspect that a good dose of the biggest motivating factor in football, revenge, will lift those "old" bodies up to play like young lions again against the team that defeated them in last year's AFC Champ game, and the Chargers, with LT's painful toes and all, will rise to the occasion.

 

Panthers over Bucs

If I was just coming into following the NFL now, this year, and was pre-disposed to root for an NFC team, I would go with the Panthers (there is no west Texas team to root for, and I generally go against the grain anyway, thus I wouldn't root for the Cowboys). This team is HOT. This team is consistent. This team has beaten good teams as well as bad teams. This team has a good QB that has played all season (unlike the Bucs, who have two fairly good QBs). This team has a certain rhythm (which I suspect the Bucs lack, due to QB changes). Everyone talks about the strength of the NFC East, but I think the NFC South is just as competitive (and maybe moreso). Yes, the Bucs "need" this win more, being a game behind the Panthers. Yes, the game is in Tampa Bay. Yes, Garcia is back. But will Garcia fit into the rhythm that the Bucs have developed? Will Garcia be able to develop his own rhythm this week in practice? Since I trust in Carolina's rhythm more than the Bucs, I go with the Panthers.

 

And the rest:

Falcons over Bears: It's in Atlanta, I like Ryan over Orton, and I am very impressed with what the Falcs did in Green Bay last week. I would say any young QB such as Orton could look like a Tom Brady against the not only winless Lions but the hopeless Lions as well, so that, although this game could go either way, I have to make a pick so I pick the Falcons.

Dolphins over Texans: Yes, I know...Miami is coming off a big win over Chargers and the Texans are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Colts. The Texans are NOT the terrible 0-4 team their record indicates, and Schaub is back (maybe), and it's in Houston. AND the Fins have NEVER beaten the Texans (plus the fact that when the Oilers were in Houston, they gave the Dolphins fits, especially in the Earl Campbell era).  I can really understand why several "pickers" are picking the Texans. So here is why I am picking Miami: one, there is a DAMNED GOOD REASON the Texans lost that 17 point lead last week--Sage Rosenfels (the Fins got rid of him for a damned good reason, too), and the fact that whoever had the ball during those fumbles couldn't hang onto it! Even if Schaub plays, will their players be able to keep the ball? Will the Texans coaching staff have a fix for the Wildcat? Will the Texans OL be able to stop one of the leagues best pass rushes? And, oh yeah, the Fins are still in the running but not the Texans.

Colts over Ravens: Just when I thought the Colts were perhaps finished for the year and their defense was yucky they play like one would expect the Colts to play and overcome a 17 point deficit against Texans. Just when I thought they had no running game they come up with one. Now the Ravens are good, but when the going gets tough the tough get going, and this could be the Colts' last shot at winning this division for a long time. Just a hunch.

Vikings over Lions: Of course.

Saints over Raiders: It is crunch time for the Saints.

Jets over Bungles: Because they're the BUNGLES! ( I refuse to call the Bungles by their rightful name until they can win one!)

Redskins over Rams: Of course.

Broncos over Jaguars: It is in Denver. Living at about 6,000 feet myself, I know the importance of altitude. Since the Jags live at sea level...(and they are still all ####ed up)

Cowboys over Cardinals: If it was just Warner vs. Romo I'd pick Warner, but it isn't, so I won't.

Niners over Eagles: Because the Niners don't have players questioning everything the way McNabb does...a rule of thumb for me is never pick the team where one of its most important players is questioning the play of the rest of the team.

Packers over Seahawks: I can't believe how far the Hawks have fallen! They should have the NFC West sowed up by now! Since I can't figure out why this team is doing so poorly, I must go with the Packers, who still have a shot at their division title.

Giants over Browns: Of course. Why is a mismatch like this on Monday night? (Don't reply, I know why! The same reason the Fins aren't on this year!)