This is an experiment. But since I figure most games are played by two fairly evenly matched teams, there must be a third or fourth or fifth ingredient that causes one team to win and one to lose. The first one is MOMENTUM, easily understood (but not necessarily useful this early in the season). The second is SCHEDULE: some teams (I've notices over the past 40 some odd years of watching or listening to NFL football) "must win" over what they consider a "lesser" team because the next few weeks see them playing "contending" teams which presumably also need to win. Also, some teams have such a "weak" schedule that all pressure is off and sometimes, just sometimes, one of those "weak" teams pick up on this and pull an upset (this won't explain the Pats upset last week...rather than consider the Dolphins "lowly" or "weak", I would say "successfully rebuilding" or "rebounding" might be more like it. 2008 is a brand new season and you must never make the mistake of judging a team by what they did in 2007. Now, the Rams, Chiefs, and Lions--these guys are definitely weak or lowly!). Third, QB vs. QB or QB vs. pass defense or secondary: one of my picks is based on performances by both QBs against the same pass defense...I picked the team who was more successful against the same pass defense. Fourth is DIVISION RIVALRY. Who is in a better position and who "needs it more"? Again, I could give a rat's behind about how any team did last year, whether they were #### poor (Fins) or contender or almost contender (the Browns, for instance). Of course, in the case of clear mismatches, it is precipitous to pick the clear winner...not that an upset couldn't happen... Week Four predictions (note: I have no dog in any of these, as the Fins have a "bye-week"...) Baltimore @ Pittsburgh: Common sense says the Steelers because clearly they had their momentum broken up last week, while the Ravens got #### out of Houston by Ike and thus lose their "bye week" altogether. But, being possessed of "uncommon sense", this pick is based on who needs it more. RAVENS Philly @ Chicago: the Eagles are questionable due to all those injuries to key players. Besides, McNab, if he plays, wants to impress the Bears (there is a rumor out there that he might want to go to chicago since that's where he's from). Nothing against the Bears, however....EAGLES San Fran @ NO: Everyone loves the way the Niners are coming and all that JT O'Sullivan biz...but the Saints really really need this one! SAINTS Houston @ Jacksonville: My heart goes for the Texans, who are really better than their record indicates...but the Jags are coming off Colts win and, now that they know they can beat a good team and must win to be competitive with the Titans, I say JAGUARS Cleveland @ Cincinnati: Whenever I think of flaky teams the Bengals immediately come to mind, and the only dege they have over the Browns is the home field advantage and their passing game. BENGALS Atlanta @ Carolina: these two teams are mirror images of each other, but the Panthers have beaten better teams than the Falcons; therefore, PANTHERS Arizona @ NYJ: Logics says the Cards, but this is not a "logical" pick, but one based on the record of Warner and Favre vs. the same defense: the Fins. While both QBs beat the Dolphins, Warner really clobbered their pass defense and secondary, exposing this weakness that (I hope) "the Sparanos" can get worked out by the end of the season. CARDINALS Minnesota @ Tennessee: These two are so similar it comes down to the fact that I trust Frerotte (who I liked playing with the Fins in 2006, leading them to 6 straight wins) over another journeyman QB I know nothing about. And, the Vikes need it more. VIKINGS Denver @ KC: A clear mismatch. BRONCOS GB @ TB: The son of Bob Griese won't pull a second-straight huge come-back, and the Packers are better than the Bears. PACKERS SD @ Oakland: The Raiders are DEFINITELY better than their record indicates, and could easily pull and upset. But the Chargers MUST get this get this win, as they face, in succession: Miami, New England, Buffalo, and New Orleans in London. Everyone is saying they will beat the Fins, but the fact is the 2008 Fins are NOT the 2007 Fins, and, further, the Fins will have had that bye-week off so their pass defense can learn and practice how to keep Rivers from going long as well as how to manhandle LT the way they did the Pats RBs. I'd rather the Raiders won, but...CHARGERS Buffalo @ St. Louis: Another mismatch. BILLS Washington @ Dallas: This being the last time the Skins get to beat the Cowboys in Texas Stadium...REDSKINS
