Well, it has taken me three days to recover from Miami's loss to the Baltimore Ravens...sorry folks, but that has perhaps had some of you think that:
Snorky had a heart attack around the 4th quarter or Snorky collapsed when she realized her Fins would lose the game or Snorky didn't get to watch the game but when she saw the final score, she got into her car and wrapped it around a tree!
None of these are true, except I didn't watch the game (I never get to watch 1 pm games on Sundays, because after Church we go visiting relatives...like they did in the old days before televised NFL football! My husband is not a football fan anyway, and neither is my daughter, much. When our college Aggie son was here over the holidays he watched enough Bowl Games to make her never want to watch football again! And anyway, the team she likes didn't make the playoffs this year. Would you believe she likes (dum dum dum) the PATRIOTS?!?
So, I am fine, and said after I found out they lost, "Oh well, better luck next year. Lets the Ravens get creamed by the Steelers!"
Only, of course, they are playing the Titans. So I say, "Let the stupid Ravens get creamed by the Titans!"
But just in case you think Snorky is completely out of it now that the Fins are out, forget it, because now I get to commune football spirituality with Bolt Backer 21 and channel all sorts of tough love onto the Chargers, who will have to play the Steelers instead!
Soooooo....
Chargers over Steelers. No I'm not kidding! You all do realize that the Steelers only beat the San Diegans by 1 point last time, 11-10. So don't tell me or Bolt that the Chargers can't win.
Titans over Ravens. Because just as they said the
Ravens are a better team over Fins, the Titans are a better team,
period. Besides, I am in no mood to root for Poe's pusillanimous
poppycocks.Quoth the Titan, "Nevermore!"
Panthers over Cardinals: Because there is no way the Cards are going to get lucky again, beating a rookie QB. Delhomme has all kinds of weapons, and it's at home in Charlotte.
Giants over Eagles: Because I just can't see the Eagles beating the Giants again this football season-post season. And Brandon Jacobs should be well this time.
And, BTW, I was 3-1 with my wildcard picks...unfortunately, that one loss was my Fins! (on the other hand, my BTD picks are all wins!)
Now that I've covered the AFC East, what about the rest?
Don' t take my word for it because I generally don't follow the other divisions, but...
I really like underdogs, and, BTD (besides the Dolphins), who is a better underdog this year to make the playoffs than the Falcons?
Thus, I want to Falcons to make the playoffs. That means I DON"T WANT THE COWBOYS! Heck, I'm a resident of Texas and I don't want the Cowboys???? No, because in honor of my late dad I also root for the Giants, who before he died finally had some satisfaction from this bunch, what in the Lawrence Taylor years and now.
Besides, I've always thought the Pokes were overrated. America's Team? Gimme a Break! It is funny (sarcastic) how owner Jerry Jones is belly-aching about Barber and using that as an excuse for his team's giving up that game to Pittsburgh last Sunday. It is always excuses with this bunch! The Dallas Cowboys always seem to think the NFL "owes" them a playoff birth, and then when they get one they tend to screw up early in the playoffs.
Then, who do I like--Bucs or Panthers? I said in an earlier post that if I was just starting out watching NFL games and (being in a non-team market) had to pick a team to root for, it would be the Panthers. I like their balance between offense and defense--not overwhelming offense and not overwhelming defense (too bad the Steelers can't say that, especially now, but the Steelers have always, since 1972, been defense oriented, good offense or not. Now, I think their offense is mediocre at best). I do not dislike the Bucs, however. My relatives live in the Tampa Bay area and thus are Bucs fans. Thus, having to choose, I chose the Panthers not because of Monday night but because the Panthers would be a change.
I tend to want to root for the Bears, but way back in the late 60s under Bud Grant and with Joe Kapp I was a Vikes fan as well. I say the Vikes win out. Something has been eating at the Bears this season...they have not been consistent or effective the way they have been. I have a warm spot in my heart also for Gus Frerotte who played in Miami in their mediocre-before-the-2007-fall year (2005, leading them to 8-8 with a big finale over the Pats). and even if Frerotte doesn't play, Adrian Peterson is amazing and I don't see many remaining teams stopping him including the Bears. Third, I don't trust Kyle Orton, who is better than Bobby Douglass but worse than what's his name (you know who I mean, the guy who won the Super Bowl).
In the AFC North, I don't like the Steelers (because of their playoff rivalry with Miami and Oakland in the 70s...I mean, how can I possibly root for them???), but I have always respected them, don't have much against them now, letting by-gones be by-gones, for one thing because they have the goat of the Cowboys. Yet I still don't really like them, because as I said before they are all defense, and, as I said in another post, they are on TV just about every week and it would be nice to see someone else besides the Steelers on TV (you know, like the Dolphins?). As for the Ravens...I don't see why the Ravens can't overcome the Steelers to win the division and I hope they do. Their win over Miami has to count for something! But the Ravens have good offense and defense, both, I like the rookie Flacco, and the Ravens (who LOST to the Fins last year) are another "resurgent" "underdog", so goooooo Ravens!
In the AFC South which is already decided with the Titans, it would really be cool if the Texans could find their way to overcome the Colts. I don't like the Colts either. No running game..okay, no consistent running game and it's all Peyton Manning, who I am sick of hearing about. But I do like the Texans! Schaub, had he been healthy all year and they didn't have to rely on that god-awful Sage Rosenfels (gosh I wish Miami would have played the Texans with Rosenfels--they would have won easily), would have the Texans in the running and the run-less and often defense-less Colts on the run. NEXT YEAR, TEXANS! Peyton Manning will be wishing he'd stayed in bed Sundays!
The Jags? No comment!
I will say this for the AFC West: Dear Al Davis: PLEASE SELL THE RAIDERS! When I wasn't rooting for the Fins in the AFC back in the 70s and 80s I was rooting for the black and silver. It has pained me, since that Supe appearance fairly recently, for you, Mr. Davis, to have completely let this team go to pot. And, Dear Chargers: The past is prologue, and you need to start rebuilding that team. LT is a nice guy but he needs help. Antonio Gates? Who? Dear Broncos: Do you enjoy forcing people who bet on you to lose hundreds or thousands because you can't seem to get your act together, losing when you should win and winning when you should lose? Keep that up, and you just might win the Super Bowl! and, Dear Chiefs: I don't care what you say, do you really think the future is with a guy named Thigpen??
NFC West? Because they're another "resurgent" team (if you can call "resurgent" a team that hasn't been in the playoffs in 33 years!), GO CARDS! A few weeks ago on NFL Network Anquan Boldin gave an interview and was a real gentleman. But look out next year for the Niners, who are "talking spoiler" according to NFL.com. Actually, the 49ers have a history of playing spoiler when they weren't in the playoffs themselves. But it would seem Singletary has them going in the right direction at least and should challenge next year. The Seahawks might also challenge. If nothing else I am impressed by the play of Seneca Wallace.
NFC East: The Gaints have clinched, but can they get past that Plax BS? I mean I have fully expected them to win another Supe, but now I am not sure. If another NFC East team had to make the playoffs I'd go with the Eagles. The Skins are finished, and I wish the Cowboys were--stop hyping these turkeys! Romo isn't Aikens, or even Staubach, and their coach is no Tom Landry. They were lucky to have Bill Parcells when they had him. and yet, I have to thank the Cowboys for four things:
Tony Sparano, Jason Ferguson, Akin Ayodele and Tony Fasano. And, oh yeah, Bill Parcells. Go Dolphins!
This week I'm just gonna list my picks with no explanations...after last weeks's 6 - 8, I have to agree with slshusker...my picks deserved no respect! Rams over Skins?? Browns over Giants?? Jags over Broncos??? And kudoos to that Cards fan who lambasted my Cowboys pick!
Bills over Chargers (Because it's in Buffalo and their QB is back)
Panthers over Saints
Bears over Vikes
Steelers over Bungles
Titans over Chiefs
Dolphins over Ravens
Giants over Niners
Cowboys over Rams
Texans over Lions
Colts over Packers
Jets over Raiders
Skins over Browns
Bucs over Seahawks
Broncos over Pats (good golly I picked the Broncs again??? But it is funny how it seems when the Chargers lose the Broncos win, and vice versa...but what if Bills lose? Pats might regain some incentive.)
As a response comment to last week's Stupid Female Picks, another blogger wrote something like this: "scan in your Las Vegas Betting Ticket to me and then I will show your picks some respect."
Well, you can keep that "respect" buddy! I DO THIS FOR FUN! Further, I don't need to get into my Football betting history which goes back to the early 70s, and, actually, even before that when I used to help my dad make office betting pool picks. But I have won enough and lost even more enough to know that "on any given Sunday" is the rule, not the exception that proves it. I mean, the last two weeks...the Broncos DID beat the Bucs even though I said they wouldn't, and the Jets DID beat the Cards the week before that even though I said they wouldn't. And go back and read the first Stupid Female Picks, in which I opened with...
"This is an experiment."
Why? Because though football has changed somewhat--the players are bigger and faster than they used to be, there are more teams than there used to be, and thus the talent gets spread thinner (though there seems to be more of it), and college offenses/defenses have changed somewhat so thus NFL offenses/defenses have had to change somewhat...for example, back in the 60s and 70s nearly every team had a good QB. It seems now colleges aren't making them fast enough, as several of the NFL teams lack a good QB: Detroit, KC, St. Louis, Minnesota (Frerotte's a good back up, not a good starter), Oakland, Houston, and Cleveland. And it seems Miami is only competeitive now because they had the luck of grabbing the Jets' castoff, Pennington, after NY got Brett Favre. The need for a good QB, along with enough offensive and defensive talent is one of the few things that haven't changed. Formations and coaching has changed somewhat, though, and there now seems to be more room for innovation. As I said, "seems." Appearances can be deceiving.
That was why when I started "putting my money where my mouth was" back then I had to have a rational for making picks. I couldn't follow all the teams as much as I would need to, so I subscribed to "Pro Football Weekly" so I could get useful stats so I could say, "So and So's offense can beat Yadda Yadda's defense"--and guess what? "On any given Sunday." Then you have the spread, which is what the betting is based on. Only someone who very closely follows football stats and player to player matchups can (IMHO) beat the spread consistently, and thus win more money than lose. After losing enough money vs the spread (but not straight up), I had to pick my picks judiciously enough to cover the spread as well as pick the winner. So I needed more than pure numbers. This is where momentum, schedule, QB, division rivalry and good old fashioned desire come in.
As I opened last weeks picks, on paper, the Chargers are a better team than the Fins, that is, their QB is better, their receivers are most certainly better, LT is better than Brown at least by reputation (Brown, of course, has been dogged by injuries and inconsistency), and the Bolts defense is generally thought to be better than the Fins' because it consists of reliable veterans. Yet, the Dolphins won, with Porter and company stopping Chambers, then LT, at the goal line, and that innovative Wildcat offense, and Pennington--while not being Favre or Brady or (both) Mannings--has enough arm to well utilize "what may be the NFL's worst receiver corp" (to quote Fox's Marvez, or was it Schein?). And, oh yeah! the Fins just might have one of the NFLs best offensive lines since...that 1972 offensive line? (But that is a stretch; still, who is complaining about their first pick, Jake Long, now??) Finally, the Fins wanted it more last week, they had some momentum left after that delicious Pats win, and the interplay of the Fins "needing" the win over the Chargers need for the win (as they didn't know the Broncos would win later in the day). Besides, they have enough players left from that horrible 2007 team to never ever wnat to go through that again! Thus perhaps the Fins might ALWAYS feel that they "need" the win this year!
Finally, I generally tend to think that my AFC East picks will be more reliable than others' AFC East picks because I generally follow the AFC East more closely (as would any Pats, Fins, Bills or Jets fan). So far, my AFC East picks are 4-1 over two weeks, with the only loss being the Jets win over the Cards. This week, I am picking every single East team to win except the Pats, who play the Chargers. After last weeks win over the Niners, the Pats can afford to "not win"...well, not really, but now the Bolts REALLY NEED TO GET AFTER IT!
Chargers over Patriots
Perhaps Bellichick got all over Matt Cassel during the two week skein with the bye week to get his act together, and perhaps those "old" bodies got a good rest so that when they played the younger Niners they were able to outlast Nolan's crew...and Cassel looked almost as effective as Brady while Moss finally looked like Moss. Further, the interplay again--Miami had just beaten the Bolts while the Bills were getting their buffalo wings clipped by the Cards gave the Pats more motivation (after all, the NFC West IS the NFLs weakest division this year by a long shot...should the Cards falter the Niners might win by default). I had also said (in a comment on another blog) that it was foolhardy to diss the Patriots this early in the season (mostly because the Bills were unbeaten at that point). I was right: both the Bills and the Pats have the same relative records with Bills 4-1 and Pats 3-1. In fact, as the Bills are off (and they need it now big time), one would think the Pats would "need" that win to get themselves a 4-1 matching record, and thus shut up those who have so easily dismissed them. But I do not think this is going to happen. Everyone knows that the Chargers are "struggling". Everyone "knows" that the veteran defense looked "old" against the Sparano's "Wildcat" bunch last week as the Pats had looked two weeks before, so that means the Chargers are going down, right? I suspect that a good dose of the biggest motivating factor in football, revenge, will lift those "old" bodies up to play like young lions again against the team that defeated them in last year's AFC Champ game, and the Chargers, with LT's painful toes and all, will rise to the occasion.
Panthers over Bucs
If I was just coming into following the NFL now, this year, and was pre-disposed to root for an NFC team, I would go with the Panthers (there is no west Texas team to root for, and I generally go against the grain anyway, thus I wouldn't root for the Cowboys). This team is HOT. This team is consistent. This team has beaten good teams as well as bad teams. This team has a good QB that has played all season (unlike the Bucs, who have two fairly good QBs). This team has a certain rhythm (which I suspect the Bucs lack, due to QB changes). Everyone talks about the strength of the NFC East, but I think the NFC South is just as competitive (and maybe moreso). Yes, the Bucs "need" this win more, being a game behind the Panthers. Yes, the game is in Tampa Bay. Yes, Garcia is back. But will Garcia fit into the rhythm that the Bucs have developed? Will Garcia be able to develop his own rhythm this week in practice? Since I trust in Carolina's rhythm more than the Bucs, I go with the Panthers.
And the rest:
Falcons over Bears: It's in Atlanta, I like Ryan over Orton, and I am very impressed with what the Falcs did in Green Bay last week. I would say any young QB such as Orton could look like a Tom Brady against the not only winless Lions but the hopeless Lions as well, so that, although this game could go either way, I have to make a pick so I pick the Falcons.
Dolphins over Texans: Yes, I know...Miami is coming off a big win over Chargers and the Texans are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Colts. The Texans are NOT the terrible 0-4 team their record indicates, and Schaub is back (maybe), and it's in Houston. AND the Fins have NEVER beaten the Texans (plus the fact that when the Oilers were in Houston, they gave the Dolphins fits, especially in the Earl Campbell era). I can really understand why several "pickers" are picking the Texans. So here is why I am picking Miami: one, there is a DAMNED GOOD REASON the Texans lost that 17 point lead last week--Sage Rosenfels (the Fins got rid of him for a damned good reason, too), and the fact that whoever had the ball during those fumbles couldn't hang onto it! Even if Schaub plays, will their players be able to keep the ball? Will the Texans coaching staff have a fix for the Wildcat? Will the Texans OL be able to stop one of the leagues best pass rushes? And, oh yeah, the Fins are still in the running but not the Texans.
Colts over Ravens: Just when I thought the Colts were perhaps finished for the year and their defense was yucky they play like one would expect the Colts to play and overcome a 17 point deficit against Texans. Just when I thought they had no running game they come up with one. Now the Ravens are good, but when the going gets tough the tough get going, and this could be the Colts' last shot at winning this division for a long time. Just a hunch.
Vikings over Lions: Of course.
Saints over Raiders: It is crunch time for the Saints.
Jets over Bungles: Because they're the BUNGLES! ( I refuse to call the Bungles by their rightful name until they can win one!)
Redskins over Rams: Of course.
Broncos over Jaguars: It is in Denver. Living at about 6,000 feet myself, I know the importance of altitude. Since the Jags live at sea level...(and they are still all ####ed up)
Cowboys over Cardinals: If it was just Warner vs. Romo I'd pick Warner, but it isn't, so I won't.
Niners over Eagles: Because the Niners don't have players questioning everything the way McNabb does...a rule of thumb for me is never pick the team where one of its most important players is questioning the play of the rest of the team.
Packers over Seahawks: I can't believe how far the Hawks have fallen! They should have the NFC West sowed up by now! Since I can't figure out why this team is doing so poorly, I must go with the Packers, who still have a shot at their division title.
Giants over Browns: Of course. Why is a mismatch like this on Monday night? (Don't reply, I know why! The same reason the Fins aren't on this year!)
Yeah, I know...I must be a complete #### for picking the Dolphins over the Chargers because as we all know the Chargers are a better team and they have LT and Rivers and that Fins win over the Pats was a fluke and well they were 1-15 last year, so!
The Chargers are a better team? Maybe. We'll see. But for one thing they haven't been the better team IN MIAMI since that awesome 1981 playoff game where the Chargers FG kicker (I forget his name) kicked the winning points in over time in one of the most exciting playoff games perhaps ever...the one where Don Strock took over for Woodley late in the 2nd quarter and helped put 21 pts. or so on the board in about ten minutes, and put them ahead early in the third quarter. The most recent Fins win was in 2006 during that 6 game winning streak under Nick Saban, where Gus Frerotte pulled out a win in the last minutes or so. In that game, LT was nearly "404".
Well, of course, the Chargers have a better QB now, LT is still going strong, and the Chargers will probably still make the playoffs even if they lose this game. And we all know the Fins pass defense is not the league's best or even close to it. They could not shut down Favre or Warner, and stopping Cassel is no proof that they are any good. Because of that, no one has really run against them so we don't know, statistically, if they can stop LT or not. And I am sure they are running those "Wildcat" films for the players to get a grasp of what "the Sparanos" did to the Pats in week 3, and thus be prepared for it. To sum up, logic says the Fins pass defense won't be able to stop Rivers, and there is no proof that their run defense can stop LT.
But all of you picking the Bolts don't seem to realize that it may not matter if the Fins can control the ball on offense. The biggest surprise this year so far has been their offense--and, after all, isn't "offense" the big whoop-tee-doo this year, what with the rules practically telling DBs they can't so much of anything to stop receivers? Another stat that Bolts pickers may not consider is the fact that other than that Pennington interception by the Jets at the last minute in week one, the Dolphins have had no other turnovers...Porter and company forced a bunch by the Pats which contributed to Miami's blowout. I personally think (in the tradition of Miami-SD matches), turnovers by the Bolts will be a factor.
The biggest reason I am picking Miami though is that they MUST WIN with the Bills 4-0, the Jets 2-2, and the Pats likely to go 3-1 after beating the Niners (which, they too, must win if only so that the Pats can get over that terrible loss to Miami). On the other hand, the Chargers, with only the Broncos as real competition, can sweat another loss early in the season (especially if the Bucs beat the Broncos), which leads me to...
Bucs over Broncos
When Brian Griese beat the Bears I was flabberghasted, doing it in a matter of minutes behind a bunch. But when he beat the Rodgers' Packers I took notice. For one thing, the NFC South is right now competitive because the Panthers are starting to look like a more serious contender, and the Saints (and possibly even the Falcons) are starting to recover their pre-season playoff contender "look." As with the stronger than usual AFC East, the NFC South is not going to allow any team to "look ahead" this early in the season. As for the Broncos, the loss to the Chiefs (as much as I like it) is not indicative of typical Broncos play--still the Broncs defense DOES have the makings of serious problems heading down the line. Which is why Cutler and company, still a game ahead of the Chargers in a weaker division than usual, can afford to let up. The Bucs need it more. Much more.
My other Stupid Picks:
Titans over Ravens: Titans defense, which is even better than Steelers, will stop the Ravens (who are fairly unstoppable otherwise)
Panthers over Chiefs: Panthers, in stronger division, need it more (even though I really want Chiefs to win)
Lions over Bears: Now this pick really is stupid! But I have to have an upset special!
Packers over Falcons
Colts over Texans: Manning needs to get after it, or go down in infamy 9and be considered less than his brother Eli)
Gaints over Seahawks: I have yet to see the Hawks impress, but I am not convinced the Giants are invincible, either (good work, Plax!)
Eagles over Redskins: Because. NFC East, you know...
Cards over Bills: Because the Cards looked a whole lot better against the Jets than the score indicated (the Jets 32-0 lead at half was because of Cards turnovers), and, besides, how much longer can the Bills keep it up?
Cowboys over Bungles: Because they are the BUNGLES!
Patriots over Niners: Because the Pats MUST win this game and get over their collapse against the Fins.
Steelers over Jags: Because the Jags seem to be cursed, and it is very hard to pick a team to win that lost a player to a leg amputation. But I hope the Jags win nevertheless.
Saints over Vikes: Because I am deep down in my heart a Saints fan, as well as a whole slew of my in-laws.
