This is an experiment. But since I figure most games are played by two fairly evenly matched teams, there must be a third or fourth or fifth ingredient that causes one team to win and one to lose. The first one is MOMENTUM, easily understood (but not necessarily useful this early in the season). The second is SCHEDULE: some teams (I've notices over the past 40 some odd years of watching or listening to NFL football) "must win" over what they consider a "lesser" team because the next few weeks see them playing "contending" teams which presumably also need to win. Also, some teams have such a "weak" schedule that all pressure is off and sometimes, just sometimes, one of those "weak" teams pick up on this and pull an upset (this won't explain the Pats upset last week...rather than consider the Dolphins "lowly" or "weak", I would say "successfully rebuilding" or "rebounding" might be more like it. 2008 is a brand new season and you must never make the mistake of judging a team by what they did in 2007. Now, the Rams, Chiefs, and Lions--these guys are definitely weak or lowly!). Third, QB vs. QB or QB vs. pass defense or secondary: one of my picks is based on performances by both QBs against the same pass defense...I picked the team who was more successful against the same pass defense. Fourth is DIVISION RIVALRY. Who is in a better position and who "needs it more"? Again, I could give a rat's behind about how any team did last year, whether they were #### poor (Fins) or contender or almost contender (the Browns, for instance). Of course, in the case of clear mismatches, it is precipitous to pick the clear winner...not that an upset couldn't happen... Week Four predictions (note: I have no dog in any of these, as the Fins have a "bye-week"...) Baltimore @ Pittsburgh: Common sense says the Steelers because clearly they had their momentum broken up last week, while the Ravens got #### out of Houston by Ike and thus lose their "bye week" altogether. But, being possessed of "uncommon sense", this pick is based on who needs it more. RAVENS Philly @ Chicago: the Eagles are questionable due to all those injuries to key players. Besides, McNab, if he plays, wants to impress the Bears (there is a rumor out there that he might want to go to chicago since that's where he's from). Nothing against the Bears, however....EAGLES San Fran @ NO: Everyone loves the way the Niners are coming and all that JT O'Sullivan biz...but the Saints really really need this one! SAINTS Houston @ Jacksonville: My heart goes for the Texans, who are really better than their record indicates...but the Jags are coming off Colts win and, now that they know they can beat a good team and must win to be competitive with the Titans, I say JAGUARS Cleveland @ Cincinnati: Whenever I think of flaky teams the Bengals immediately come to mind, and the only dege they have over the Browns is the home field advantage and their passing game. BENGALS Atlanta @ Carolina: these two teams are mirror images of each other, but the Panthers have beaten better teams than the Falcons; therefore, PANTHERS Arizona @ NYJ: Logics says the Cards, but this is not a "logical" pick, but one based on the record of Warner and Favre vs. the same defense: the Fins. While both QBs beat the Dolphins, Warner really clobbered their pass defense and secondary, exposing this weakness that (I hope) "the Sparanos" can get worked out by the end of the season. CARDINALS Minnesota @ Tennessee: These two are so similar it comes down to the fact that I trust Frerotte (who I liked playing with the Fins in 2006, leading them to 6 straight wins) over another journeyman QB I know nothing about. And, the Vikes need it more. VIKINGS Denver @ KC: A clear mismatch. BRONCOS GB @ TB: The son of Bob Griese won't pull a second-straight huge come-back, and the Packers are better than the Bears. PACKERS SD @ Oakland: The Raiders are DEFINITELY better than their record indicates, and could easily pull and upset. But the Chargers MUST get this get this win, as they face, in succession: Miami, New England, Buffalo, and New Orleans in London. Everyone is saying they will beat the Fins, but the fact is the 2008 Fins are NOT the 2007 Fins, and, further, the Fins will have had that bye-week off so their pass defense can learn and practice how to keep Rivers from going long as well as how to manhandle LT the way they did the Pats RBs. I'd rather the Raiders won, but...CHARGERS Buffalo @ St. Louis: Another mismatch. BILLS Washington @ Dallas: This being the last time the Skins get to beat the Cowboys in Texas Stadium...REDSKINS
So I was wrong about Hasselbeck--he's playing very well (and Delhomme doesn't look like he can find the broadside of a barn let along Steve Smith)--and Alexander's playing very well also. So I was wrong, and now you Seattle fans can gloat. But so far I'm NOT taking back my comment that the Hawks are the Bengals of the NFC--heck, even the Bengals play well sometimes. When the Hawks win consistently in the playoffs over several years like the Steelers and others have done, that's when I'll take it back.
It is nw halftime of the Seattle game, and if the "Cats" come back and win it'll be a miracle...
Now, as to the Steelers-Broncos: Congrats to the "Bus" who gets to (maybe) win a Supe in his home town, and the rest of Cowher's crew. But I wonder, not to take anything away from Steelers' play, but I wonder if the Bronc weren't looking behind them, to taking out the "Patriot dynasty", when they should have been look toward the Steelers?
Oh, what the heck, everyone else is doing it...making predictions on the AFC and NFC Champ games this weekend, and "everyone else" probably knows more than I do about the Steelers, Broncos, Seahawks and Panthers.
Especially the Panthers!
Like I said in my 1st post, I haven't seriously followed the NFL since the mid-80s. Fact is my spouse hates football, and not only that, when we moved into our house out here deep in the west Texas mountains, we didn't have TV for many years until 1999 when we got our DirecTV dish. Because our son liked to occasionally watch a football game, we let him but I never really got to get back into it...I had moved on and didn't want to get back to the point where football meant so much (confession: I was a fanatic in the 70s to the point where I was like those of you who claim to "live and die" by your team.). And I still don't. I started getting interested again this year because the way things looked it seemed it was time that perhaps maybe the Pats would not get back to the Super Bowl, which would make things more interesting.
I have NOTHING against the Patriots, by the way...it's just that it's good to have other teams win the "Big One" once in a while. And, if you read my 1st post, you'll notice I have a fascination for sports dynasties. So anyway...
Steelers over Broncos, and Panthers over Seahawks....
Since I have almost NO knowledge of the Carolina Panthers, why am I picking them to beat Seattle? That's because while I know almost nothing about Carolina I know something about the Hawks, again from history. In my 1st post I said Seattle was the Bengals of the NFC. Historically, the Bengals have been EXTREMELY INCONSISTENT...flaky, winning when they should lose and losing when they have the talent to win, and always (back in the 70s and 80s, anyway), disappointing fans and prognosticators. In other words, the Bengals, defying all logic, always found a way to lose when the #### was up (and they proved that again vs. Steelers in first round...but who would have thought it would be because Palmer was injured?). Seattle, even when they made playoffs, has had the same tendencies. Though it isn't recorded anywhere on the Internet, I have always thought the Hawks were the Bengals of the AFC West, and now that they are in the NFC... Besides, Jake Delhomme just seems more gutsy and impressive than Matt Hasselback (spelling?)...nor do I know if Shaun Alexander is really ready.
To me, the Steelers and Broncos are pretty much evenly matched everywhere, but the Steelers are behaving the way they did in the 70s right now, dominant and finding any way they can to win. Plus, while Denver is also playing very well right now, too, it could be they became so caught up in beating the outgoing dynasty that they may forget about winning against perhaps the next one.
A return of dynasty to Pittsburgh? That's pure speculation, and a lot depends on how the team reacts to Bettis' possible retirement. Bettis shows just how long I've been out of this game...he was a rookie in Steelerville when I stopped watching football, period. Until now. And Cowher is (probably) no Chuck Noll.
