This is an experiment. But since I figure most games are played by two fairly evenly matched teams, there must be a third or fourth or fifth ingredient that causes one team to win and one to lose. The first one is MOMENTUM, easily understood (but not necessarily useful this early in the season). The second is SCHEDULE: some teams (I've notices over the past 40 some odd years of watching or listening to NFL football) "must win" over what they consider a "lesser" team because the next few weeks see them playing "contending" teams which presumably also need to win. Also, some teams have such a "weak" schedule that all pressure is off and sometimes, just sometimes, one of those "weak" teams pick up on this and pull an upset (this won't explain the Pats upset last week...rather than consider the Dolphins "lowly" or "weak", I would say "successfully rebuilding" or "rebounding" might be more like it. 2008 is a brand new season and you must never make the mistake of judging a team by what they did in 2007. Now, the Rams, Chiefs, and Lions--these guys are definitely weak or lowly!). Third, QB vs. QB or QB vs. pass defense or secondary: one of my picks is based on performances by both QBs against the same pass defense...I picked the team who was more successful against the same pass defense. Fourth is DIVISION RIVALRY. Who is in a better position and who "needs it more"? Again, I could give a rat's behind about how any team did last year, whether they were #### poor (Fins) or contender or almost contender (the Browns, for instance). Of course, in the case of clear mismatches, it is precipitous to pick the clear winner...not that an upset couldn't happen... Week Four predictions (note: I have no dog in any of these, as the Fins have a "bye-week"...) Baltimore @ Pittsburgh: Common sense says the Steelers because clearly they had their momentum broken up last week, while the Ravens got #### out of Houston by Ike and thus lose their "bye week" altogether. But, being possessed of "uncommon sense", this pick is based on who needs it more. RAVENS Philly @ Chicago: the Eagles are questionable due to all those injuries to key players. Besides, McNab, if he plays, wants to impress the Bears (there is a rumor out there that he might want to go to chicago since that's where he's from). Nothing against the Bears, however....EAGLES San Fran @ NO: Everyone loves the way the Niners are coming and all that JT O'Sullivan biz...but the Saints really really need this one! SAINTS Houston @ Jacksonville: My heart goes for the Texans, who are really better than their record indicates...but the Jags are coming off Colts win and, now that they know they can beat a good team and must win to be competitive with the Titans, I say JAGUARS Cleveland @ Cincinnati: Whenever I think of flaky teams the Bengals immediately come to mind, and the only dege they have over the Browns is the home field advantage and their passing game. BENGALS Atlanta @ Carolina: these two teams are mirror images of each other, but the Panthers have beaten better teams than the Falcons; therefore, PANTHERS Arizona @ NYJ: Logics says the Cards, but this is not a "logical" pick, but one based on the record of Warner and Favre vs. the same defense: the Fins. While both QBs beat the Dolphins, Warner really clobbered their pass defense and secondary, exposing this weakness that (I hope) "the Sparanos" can get worked out by the end of the season. CARDINALS Minnesota @ Tennessee: These two are so similar it comes down to the fact that I trust Frerotte (who I liked playing with the Fins in 2006, leading them to 6 straight wins) over another journeyman QB I know nothing about. And, the Vikes need it more. VIKINGS Denver @ KC: A clear mismatch. BRONCOS GB @ TB: The son of Bob Griese won't pull a second-straight huge come-back, and the Packers are better than the Bears. PACKERS SD @ Oakland: The Raiders are DEFINITELY better than their record indicates, and could easily pull and upset. But the Chargers MUST get this get this win, as they face, in succession: Miami, New England, Buffalo, and New Orleans in London. Everyone is saying they will beat the Fins, but the fact is the 2008 Fins are NOT the 2007 Fins, and, further, the Fins will have had that bye-week off so their pass defense can learn and practice how to keep Rivers from going long as well as how to manhandle LT the way they did the Pats RBs. I'd rather the Raiders won, but...CHARGERS Buffalo @ St. Louis: Another mismatch. BILLS Washington @ Dallas: This being the last time the Skins get to beat the Cowboys in Texas Stadium...REDSKINS
"There's not a chance of that happening, snorky," you say, and you're probably right. Too many corporate interests have too much at stake. But a lot can happen in a week-and-a-half, such as:
What if the guy who billed the stadium authorities for their electricity put a few too many zeroes into the computer and instead of a bill for January of $10,000 sent out a bill for $10,000,000, and, while stadium authorities haggled with the power company over the actual KWH used, the company decided to shut off power?
What if a couple of players or team people had had their names, over the course of the past week or so, again due to a computer glitchm put on the "no fly" list? What if those players were Peyton Manning and Brian Urlacher?
What if white supremacists, working alone or in tandem, shot or otherwise seriously wounded coaches Dungy and Smith?
What if some seriously deranged Colt or Bear haters made a deal with some seriously armed street gang, bought some RPGs or IEDs or something and managed to take out an entire team? Does the NFL have provisions to deal with this, such that, say, if it happened to the Bears, then the Saints, next in line in the NFC, got to go instead? (and since I'll probably root for the Bears, don't say I have a "death wish" okay?)
What if a rouge country--I won't say who!--accidentally or on purpose shot down a communications satellite, say, a satellite owned by Hughes (SirecTV), and millions of fans wouldn't get to see the game on their TVs?
What if (as with the scenario of a movie I can't remember the name of, but I believe Harrison Ford was in it as Jack Ryan???) terrorists (I won't say which terrorists!) blew up the stadium?
What if the stadium support workers, including those who process tickets, go on strike the day of the game, and no one is there to take tickets and it is a few hours before game time, and, with no one there, the fans begin to riot? SWAT is called in, folks are going crazy, they have to delay the game, and, by the time everything is calmed down, it is midnight and everyone, including the players and coaches, want to go home?
What if Christian (or whatever) fundamentalists (and don't balk because I call myself a follower of Christ, just I'm not into Christian dogma like the rapture and hell for eternity and all that nonsense) get wind that a repeat of Janet Jackson's little expose of two years ago if possible, and they start pulling something like at an abortion clinic and get the game shut down? (BTW, I'm opposed to abortions).
What if crazies of all other sorts start blowing up TV networks that carry the game because they are advertizing products these groups don't like, such as beer?
What if the announcers, all of them, including the color analysts as well as their guest analysts et. al., all got the flu or a cold or larygitis or something and couldn't do the game? (well, then, one wouldn't need the "mute" button, now would they?)
What if stadium support personnel, in the process of getting the field ready, accidentally used a toxic substance to mark the hashmarks which then proceeded to give off toxic fumes or disintegrate?
What if some super secret organization of bad guys such as "Spectre" of James Bond fame threatened to blow up the game in progress unless the NFL handed them 5 billion dollars, or, in the alternative, cancelled the game in order to put on another sporting event at a later date, say, the world synchronized swimming tournament? (And I love to swim, okay?)
Well, that's just a few possibilities, remote as they are, why there might not be a Suer Bowl 41 (sorry but I don''t have the reverance for this game that makes me want to use Roman Numerals, okay? To me it's just a game between two teams, and the possibilitiy of "football dyasties" on the make is essentially meaningless unless something approaching the Yankees, the Canadiens, or the UCLA Bruins is in the offering...sorry Steeler, Patriot, Cowboy, Niner and Packer fans, but your "dynasties" are hardly that!)
