The Red Wings are no longer a dominant team, they’re under .500 so far and it sure looks like they underestimated the effect of Shanahan leaving. Things are far from bad though, they’re now in that group of 10-12 teams that looks to kill off the next five months, grab a 5th – 8th spot and hope to get hot come playoff time. Betting against them come April still seems iffy.
Three of my top picks got off to slow starts. Two of them, Carolina and Nashville, are already much improved, and serve to show just how important chemistry is in the NHL. It takes a few games for new lines and new players to get accustomed to each other. The third pick, Calgary, I’m no longer so confident in. This is a team that doesn’t have chemistry problem, it has a scoring problem, which is a hell of a lot harder to fix. By the way, would I be the first person if called Dion Pheneuf overrated? Well I just did. His hits are great for sportscentre, not so good for his team. He could be an incredible player in say three more years, but how about we hold off on the accolaides until he earns them? I'll admit that I prefer go-for-broke, dynamic forward lines and a stay-at-home defence core, so he'll never be my ideal player. That said, right now Phaneuf's barely an all-star on the good nights, and he's showing a habit of playing his team out of winnable games on the bad nights.
I talked myself out of getting too crazy about the Thrashers and Wild, but both of those teams look really really good so far. Also, the Blackhawks are proving my estimate of a modest improvement wrong, get it done without the help of Ruutu. Havlat looks like a world-beater so far, and if the Bulin Wall can get his save % up another 10 points, look out for Chicago.
The Sabres are doing something the elite teams seem to do every year – win the ugly ones. Four of their first 6 games featured what I would call sub-par efforts, and yet they still picked up the two points every night. Much like the Wings did last year, this team could quickly be the even odds favorite to win the President’s trophy, using the combination of a solid team and a terrible division to puff up that point total.
Speaking of the Northeast, what is going on in Ottawa and Boston? At least the Bruins have the excuses of playing only a single home game, and having notable players on the injury lists. Even still, who would have predicted both team averaging two goals a game so far?
No surprise at all, the Coyotes and Flyers are by far the worst teams in the league. The only competition they may get for that spot will come from the Panthers and Islanders.
I’m concerned, and for a variety of reasons. I’m concerned because saying you’re 29 plus two sounds even lamer than 29 plus one, and I might have to start admitting to the 3rd decade. I’m concerned because I’m a decent musician who played his first sold out show 10 long years ago. I’m concerned because I played my last sold-out show 3 years ago. I’m concerned what it says about my tastes when my favorite red wine switches to a screw cap. I’m concerned that I even have a favorite red wine. I could go on and on about this, but let's just skip to the point. What's most concerning of all is this:
My favorite team is on top of just about everyone’s pre-season poll, including mine.
Its proof positive of the mad, mad world we live in. One where insanely talented NFL wide receivers try to off themselves with pain pills, and dirtbag ex-NHL goons get it with party-hopping hottie politicians.
In honour of all of that concerns me right now, here’s my preseason picks for the East (with approximate point totals):
EAST
Atlantic
New York – 105pts – Lundqvist. Shanahan. Yagr. Watch for a stong 2nd half.
New Jersey – 100 pts – Any question Lamoriello learned the most from last year?
Pittsburgh – 90 pts – Goaltending talent will finally come through.
Philadelphia - 75 pts – Forsberg can’t stay healthy, goaltending can’t get it done.
Islanders – 60 pts – Alexei Yashin.
Northeast
Buffalo – 115 pts – Ryan Miller, 4 solid lines and a chance to feast on a weaker northeast.
Ottawa – 90 pts – Watch for a big drop off in Danny Heatley’s game.
Boston – 90 pts – Goaltending wealth, Rookie of the year Phil Kessel.
Montreal – 85 pts – The goaltending and smaller forwards won’t hold up.
Toronto – 70 pts – Rebuilding with a strong veteran presence is a recipe for disaster.
Southeast
Carolina – 120pts – The new Detroit, efficiency and skill throughout. MVP Eric Staal.
Tampa Bay – 110pts – Goaltending problem solved, too much talent for a 2nd down year.
Atlanta – 100pts – Most predictably improving team, this is years in the making.
Washington – 90pts – Much improved but still one year away.
Florida – 65 pts – Add front office turmoil to an over-rated roster, and this is what you get.
- The new Buffalo uniforms aren’t nearly as bad as they could have been. Kudos to Rebok for doing their best with that hilarious looking golden-slug of an emblem. I love the numbers on the front, and the solid colours are a nice change from the noisy red, black and silver.
- Sabres blanked the Leafs 4-0 in their first pre-season tilt, with all four goals on the powerplay. I figured that the young guys would really shine in this game, I just didn’t think it would be on the Sabres’ side. Its only one pre-season game, but that said it doesn’t bode well for Paul Maurice when his young guys, the only players for whom the pre-season means anything, wind up laying an egg like that. What Pohl and Ondres did last year made me take notice, but even with the potential those two are another game like last night away from peddling their wears in Ricoh come October.
- Sabres swing into the hammer to play a neutral site game against the Pens on Saturday night, and needless to say I’m there. You know, If I’m Lindy Ruff that night, in some ways I’d be hoping my team takes its fair share of penalties. Without McKee this team needs to be in top shape penalty-killing wise, and Pittsburgh’s guns are a great way to test it out. Wonder what the odds are both Crosby and Malkin see icetime that night.
- Speaking of the Pens, I checked it out this weekend and can report with certainty that the Mellon Arena is still a dump. PNC Park is still pretty boss though, especially when the game ends with 30,000 Mets fans going home disappointed.
- Tie Domi officially retired to become an analyst with TSN. I guess they needed someone to make Glenn Healy sound smart. What insights could a career goon and notorious cheap shot artist provide viewers, especially in the new breed NHL? Maybe he can regail us with tales of suspensions and suckerpunches. How about that time his gutless elbow on Niedermayer rallied the devils and cost his team any chance of winning in the ’01 playoffs. Good times, good times.
- More often than not, my girlfriend is the official voice of reason. Last night she thankfully spared me from watching Monday Night Football by insisting that I catch “Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip” with her. Now admittedly I’m not a TV buff by any stretch, but was one of the best shows I’ve ever seen, absolutely brilliant start to finish. Like a bigger, better West Wing, without the preachy politics. As for the football game, the only question I was left with was whether Big Ben is more grossly over-rated, or woefully unentertaining. NFL, the new soccer.
- You may have noticed I ditched the picture of me completely plastered and skateboarding down a road in the outer banks, replacing it with a shot of my dog on the bow of our boat. The salty spaniel lords over his cottage kingdom. My dog is all about the style.
- Quick, name the only professional team to currently sport two Heismann trophy winners on the same roster. Eric Crouch played the role of a perfect backup all year, and played decent in his first chance this past weekend, going 4-9 and helping the Ricky Williams-less Toronto Argonauts to a 26-23 win. Williams meanwhile, before breaking a bone in his arm that will sideline him for a few weeks, was putting up some average numbers. Where he really impressed was is in his receiving numbers, an 8.3 yard average in 7 catches, improving on every snap.
- Speaking of the CFL, with the improved officiating and addition of instant replay this year, call me crazy but I’m now among the believers who say that the CFL has the best framework for professional football. It’s no secret that the CFL rules and field dimensions are geared towards a smaller, faster player. The game is built for the stereotypical athlete, and punishes the overly large, exclusive to football big man. The absence of a 4th down stretches the field on the vast majority of plays, adding to the excitement, emphasizing the stars. The CFL lacks the parity of the NFL, but allows its star players a much more significant amount of time to shine.
It’s a contention that can never really be proven of course, because the CFL will never attract enough talent to test it, and the NFL knows that the value of the ‘fat man’ in its marketing is too big to make the 400lb lineman obsolete by playing a pass first, 3 down game. That said, who wouldn’t like to see Payton Manning put up 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions a game?
-Jazil is out of the Traver’s Stakes, having picked up a hind leg bruise in training. Unfortunately that means my oil-and-water Jazil vs. Bernardini dream match up looks to be down to the Breeder’s Cup Classic, or not at all. UPDATE - sorry, thats not entirely true, if Jazil heals well he could match up against Bernardini in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park on Oct. 7, a month before the Breeder's Cup.
-Who knew salary arbitration would be the rally killer to the string of good luck the NHL had been seeing the past 12 months. How long it will take before the league can correct the problem of rulings like Daniel Briere’s $5.1M award is unclear. When team’s like Chicago and Tampa Bay, (who can’t do the math and figure out that $5M for anyone short of Wayne Gretzky is a cap nightmare) are setting precedent in arbitration hearings, expect to see more and more teams walking away from the awards.
-Even with the Twins in the mix, it says here the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees have a better chance of catching wildcard leaders Chicago than AL East leaders Boston.
It was nice to see 50 thousand plus fans at a ball game in Toronto again, even if a quarter of them were there to see the Yankees. Here’s hoping more Western New Yorkers start supporting the local team, the same way Southern Ontario helps keep the Bills afloat. As long as they keep their 45mph driving minivans out of the left lane on the way to and from that is. Seriously, I’m talking to you Tony from Amherst with the Rush Limbaugh bumpersticker, you don’t need to learn metric, just learn to get out of the way. You can't drive any slower unless the mayor is on your roof throwing candy.
So with the Sabres packing it in last night, I guess its all about 2007 from now on. Yet another sporting year has passed me and my teams by.
At the expense of my waning sanity, here’s quick run down of where it all went wrong:
January, 2006 – Watching the Boilermaker-less BCS bowl games.
After kicking off the season as the 15th ranked team in college football, and getting as high as 11th by week 2, Purdue wrapped up an absolutely rotten season at 5-6, tied for 8th in the Big Ten. In September, I was thinking Rose, by November I was praying for ####lord Hotel Motor City. In the end bowl gods smiled on me with a pretty decent consolation prize though. 2006 had the best series of bowl games played in my lifetime.
February, 2006 – Watching the Bills-less Super Bowl game.
Unlike the aforementioned Purdue boys, this team went from bad to worse. You know your team is bad when they don’t even look good from a seat in the luxury boxes. Bowl gods must have thought I looked tired as well, because that Superbowl was a total snore-fest.
March, 2006 – Watching a Boilermaker and Bull-less March Madness Tournament.
Didn’t matter in the least though, because that basketball season was a guaranteed success the second the AP polls came out in week 5. Way down at the bottom of the poll, under “other’s receiving votes”, were the UB Bulls with 1 vote. Now I have no idea who this voter was, or more importantly what he was on and where I can get some, but I’m pretty sure his next writing assignment was covering the Mint 400 with his lawyer in tow. Mr. Thompson, you and your stash made my basketball season.
May, 2006 – Knowing I’ll be watching a Cubs-less World Series soon enough
There I was, 4 rows for the field on the first base side. I saw the full extent of the disaster with my very own eyes, while realizing that it’s another 5 full months until this team gets put out of its misery. On the plus side, dude, I was like at Wrigley Field!
June, 2006 – Watching the Sabres-less Stanley Cup.
Be strong, you can get through this. One day at a time. One day at a HOLY #### WE WERE WINNING THROUGH TWO PERIODS WHY GET TIRED NOW WHY WHY WHY WHY?
I know it’s only Thursday. But it’s been a long week, I need some short takes.
- Roger Clemens makes a return to the Major Leagues for one more season. #22 comes back making a pro-rated $22 million annual salary, with a return date of June 22. He held his press conference yesterday at 12:22, because holding it at the seemingly appropriate time of 10:22 at night would just be silly I guess. Cheers to whoever in the Clemens camp figured out the annualized salary though, way to get your nerd on.
- Sweetnorthernsaint is the latest horse to drop out of the Belmont, leaving this race dangerously close to becoming a Grade II event. Three of the current entrants have an allowance race at the top of their resume.
As disappointing a triple crown as this has turned out to be, look at the top ten standings for the Breeder’s Cup Classic points:
1 - Brother Derek 2 - Surf Cat 3 - Bob and John 4 - Bernardini 5 - Magnum 6 - Sweetnorthernsaint 7 - High Limit 8 - Sharp Humor (injured) 9 - Spellbinder 10 - A. P. Warrior
Only Surf Cat, Magnum and Sweetnorthernsaint aren’t currently nominated, but you have to assume they will be supplemented. And while I still think Bernardini is in over his head at this distance, if you add one or two overseas entries or late bloomers to this list, we could see one hell of a race come November.
- You have to love Lindy Ruff. If you’re on his team, or a hometown fan, he’s one of yours. With 10 years playing and 8 seasons coaching for the Sabres, he’s quickly becoming the face of this organization. And if by chance you’re an opponent, he’s guaranteed to provide you with more than enough bulletin board material to last you weeks.
- Speaking of the Sabres, the injury list has finally grown to a size where even I don't easily recognize the replacement names. Nathan Paetsch will be making his NHL debut replacing Jay McKee tonight. Intriguingly, Paetsch is considered an offensive-minded defenceman, a far cry from Mckee's M.O.
Alarms were slept through with authority this morning.
A few days ago, I predicted that game that game 3 of the Sabres/Canes series would be the “big one”. You may have noticed by now that I like making predictions. I don’t make them to show my sports IQ, or to suggest that I’ve got some knowledge beyond what I’ve picked up from the regular sports pages and television updates. I make them because they’re fun, nothing more, nothing less. Sometimes I’m right, sometimes I’m wrong. Other times, like last night, I have no idea. Going back to the boxing analogy I used before, this was the big round that’s near impossible to score. Was chasing Ward with 4 solid goals the first knockdown of the fight (score the round 10-8 buffalo), or was Carolina’s flurry of shots in the 3rd enough to save them (score it even)? If forced to guess, I say it’s a 10-8 round, seeing Gerber was like drawing blood, and that’s always a good thing for the one drawing it.
I do know for certain that I lost a good 5 years of my life in that third period. After a 2nd period that drained the entire crowd (cheering hits and goals for 30 minutes straight will do that to you), we sure could have used a breather. I lived through the longest game in AHL history (7th period, Hamilton wins it) and I don’t know if I was any more spent that after the 3rd period last night.
Cheers to the guy who sat beside us last night, who high-fived 90% of section 309 after every Sabres goal, and made sure everyone around him was having as much fun as he was.
After the game, just before I got into my truck to head back to the homeland, I stopped for a second, impressed. The sound coming from outside the arena, a full 30 minutes after the game had ended, and a good ½ mile from where we stood, sounded a lot like a sold-out crowd cheering a home run. Or maybe a large concert when the headline act first walks on stage. Only difference was, in this case it didn’t die down. It had been going on since the 2nd period, and continued at least until we were out of ear shot. Echoing through the streets for blocks was the constant drone of thousands of people having a great time. You know, for all the bad things that a sport brings out in the average fan, there sure are a lot of good things as well.
Just a thought, but every hockey fan should see Afinogenov live at least once. He’s not the best player out there, that’s for sure, but it’s like he’s playing a different game than everyone else. He touches the puck, and every immediately pays attention. If the puck hits his stick, talking people get shushed, everything become background. Good or bad, something is bound to happen.
Some quick thoughts I have to get out before the weekend,
- My bias towards lesser touted NHL players has led me to some serious highs and lows this year. Lowest was severely overrating the eternally injured Tuomo Ruutu in my regular season pool, guaranteeing a last place finish. I wasn't the only one hyping him the preseason, but I sure felt like the only one left at the party come October. Highest was spotting the omissions of J.P. Dumont and Chris Kunitz from this years playoff pool. I kept Dumont for myself (best write-in so far), and shared Kunitz with a co-worker who needed help (2nd best write-in).
- Speaking of the playoff hockey pool, I’m currently sitting 13th out of 160. This one’s my bread and butter, 2003 won it all, 2004 2nd place. Sorry for the self horn-tooting.
- In what has to be the most up in the air NBA draft in years, is Rudy #### to the Raptors as much of a lock as its sounds? I say yes. And for a pair undersized shooting guards, who’s more underrated right now, Maurice Ager or Mike Gansey? I say both see decent floor time next year.
- The Preakness is a 3 horse field. Could be the smallest trifecta payout ever. I’d recommend boxing sweetnorthernsaint and Brother Derek, but that feels to me too much like dropping chips on the don’t pass line. Barbaro is the exact type of horse that deserves a chance for the crown.
- - The Globe event in Fiji kicks off in two days. I’m taking former young gun Fred Pattachia to take down Mick Fanning in the final. Call it the double upset special.
- Best song on radio right now is Crazy by Gnarls Barkley. No debate.
The playoff email is a true tradition, right up there with fruticake and green beer. And, much like fruitcake and green beer, they're often tasteless and of low quality. The playoff atmosphere, much like the rum or the food dye, is covering up the crapiness. And yet, we love them anyways.
I've welcomed the chance to once again open my email and find barely humerous photoshop creations of mat sundin hoisting a set of golf clubs or daniel alfredsson with an orange pylon for a body. Smiled to get the same recycled jokes, with the names changed to identify the most recent guilty parties.
Every once in a while you may actually get a good email (anyone who hasn't seen the SI pic of the two philly fans hugging really needs to, for instance), but in many ways they don't belong. It'd be like receiving an interesting christmas card -- where's the fun in that?
The crappier the better I say! bring it on, bring on the swiss cheese with Brodeur's head on it, milk cartons with hasek's face on the side. Anything goes, the crappier the better!
Well... except for the mastercard spoofs. I don't care if its Stanley Cup Game 7, we all have limits.
I am a Sabres fan, a Cubs fan, a Boilermakers fan, a Ti-cat fan and a Hamilton Bulldogs fan. I'm an obvious sucker for punishment. I believe that while playing them can be a tolerable way to kill 5 hours, there is nothing more painful than talking golf or watching poker. There's no excuse for fantasy football, no matter how bored or lonely you are. I don't consider you an athelete unless you can beat me in a race to the corner and back. I'm landlocked and terrible, but I carry on an irrational love affair with surfing. We are in the midst of one of the greatest horseracing years in decades.
