The Red Wings are no longer a dominant team, they’re under .500 so far and it sure looks like they underestimated the effect of Shanahan leaving. Things are far from bad though, they’re now in that group of 10-12 teams that looks to kill off the next five months, grab a 5th – 8th spot and hope to get hot come playoff time. Betting against them come April still seems iffy.

Three of my top picks got off to slow starts. Two of them, Carolina and Nashville, are already much improved, and serve to show just how important chemistry is in the NHL. It takes a few games for new lines and new players to get accustomed to each other. The third pick, Calgary, I’m no longer so confident in. This is a team that doesn’t have chemistry problem, it has a scoring problem, which is a hell of a lot harder to fix. By the way, would I be the first person if called Dion Pheneuf overrated? Well I just did. His hits are great for sportscentre, not so good for his team. He could be an incredible player in say three more years, but how about we hold off on the accolaides until he earns them? I'll admit that I prefer go-for-broke, dynamic forward lines and a stay-at-home defence core, so he'll never be my ideal player. That said, right now Phaneuf's barely an all-star on the good nights, and he's showing a habit of playing his team out of winnable games on the bad nights.

I talked myself out of getting too crazy about the Thrashers and Wild, but both of those teams look really really good so far. Also, the Blackhawks are proving my estimate of a modest improvement wrong, get it done without the help of Ruutu. Havlat looks like a world-beater so far, and if the Bulin Wall can get his save % up another 10 points, look out for Chicago.

The Sabres are doing something the elite teams seem to do every year – win the ugly ones. Four of their first 6 games featured what I would call sub-par efforts, and yet they still picked up the two points every night. Much like the Wings did last year, this team could quickly be the even odds favorite to win the President’s trophy, using the combination of a solid team and a terrible division to puff up that point total.

Speaking of the Northeast, what is going on in Ottawa and Boston? At least the Bruins have the excuses of playing only a single home game, and having notable players on the injury lists. Even still, who would have predicted both team averaging two goals a game so far?

No surprise at all, the Coyotes and Flyers are by far the worst teams in the league. The only competition they may get for that spot will come from the Panthers and Islanders.

It’s snowing. Not much, a few flakes here and there, but enough to notice from my window seat on the 17th floor. I can see it, there it is. Snow.

And so now I can say with certainty that it’s officially hockey season. I saw the white stuff, ergo the game must be on.

You know, it’s funny how much context plays a part in my perception of sports. To me, sports need that feeling, that vibe. Many of my most memorable sporting venues fit perfectly in their surrounds, here's some that come to mind:

Outdoor Rink in Portage-Du-Fort – Portage is a small riverside town on the Quebec side of the Ottawa Valley. It’s not much at first, pretty small,  I’ve only been there countless times because it’s on the way to two of our cottages. Last time I was there in the winter though, they still had an outdoor rink - which they still used for league games! It’s far from fuzzy, and usually farther from warm, but you can’t help but smile when you see it.

Ivor Wynne Stadium – A black and yellow steel structure in the middle of Hamilton. It’s tough, its cold, its ugly. But add a near-freezing rainstorm to a Tiger Cat football game and in some bizarre way, its well worth the time. Definitely not for everyone, but definitely in context.

Surfing the Outer Banks, NC - Find a spot a stretch of beach with a sandbar break where no one else is in sight (amazingly, the banks is one of the few ocean beaches you can still accomplish this fairly easily). Paddle out about 40 yards. Sit and wait for the waves to come. If they come, it’s the purest form of sport there is. If they don’t come, it’s no problem. Just watch the shore, the water, time going by. Enjoy.

(just as an aside, the complete opposite of good context is the golf mentality. On those same sandy dunes and roaring ocean waves on the banks, there are bright green golf courses. Alien grass, collared shirts. It’s an old man in a bubble. The golf mentality is afraid of context, it’s tired and scared and hides in the safety of Walmart-esque uniformity. The world is a blank canvas, on to which the same green grass can spread like the plague. The golf mentality made Orlando, and is making places like Puerto Vallarta into Orlando part II. The golf mentality wants to go to a location, but has to make sure it can bring its own reality)

Wrigley Field – It’s almost impossible to distinguish between the stadium and the neighborhood begins. You’re not at a baseball game, you’re inside Wrigleyville. I could spend all day there.

I guess it’s mentionable that sometimes context can take a back seat, thinking specifically of the reclamation projects that created football and baseball stadiums in Cleveland and Detroit (in stark contrast to the surrounding blocks) to feel good results, but I think those are the exceptions and not the rule. Generally speaking, it has to be about the context. I’m a sucker for the scene.

WEST

Central

Nashville – 120pts – Not much reason to doubt they build on last year’s result. Coach of the Year Barry Trotz.

Columbus – 95 pts – Offensive strengths will carry them, look for a big year for Carter.

Detroit – 85 pts – The wrong guys retired/left this year, Hasek won’t survive and the young guys are still a year away from dominating.

Chicago - 80 pts – 10 wins hang in the balance of the story of Ruutu’s health. Odd’s are against a happy ending.

St. Louis – 75 pts – Vastly improved with addition of McKee and Weight, but far from contending.

Pacific

Anaheim – 105 pts – Deepest team out there, Kunitz is the best kept secret in the league.

San Jose – 95 pts – Uninspiring defencemen the only thing standing between them and a cup run.

Los Angeles – 85 pts – A Clutier injury hangover makes me wary, as does the lack of an Avery trade.

Dallas – 75 pts – Curse of the Lindros, Turco the only thing standing between them and the basement.

Coyotes – 65 pts – Roster looks like a late 90’s all-star team, and that’s not a compliment.

Northwest

Calgary – 100pts – There’s a likely all-star at every single position.

Minnesota – 90pts – Aside from Gaborik its all steak, and no sizzle, meaning they will win the boring way.

Vancouver – 85pts – Huge upgrade in goal, but for the first time their season now hinges on the Sedins.

Colorado – 80pts – Sakic is done, Wolski, Svatos and Stastny will decide if they squeak into the playoffs or not.

Edmonton – 70 pts – They downgraded a roster that masterfully over-achieved last season, MacT can only do so much.

TOP 2 TEAMS COME PLAYOFF TIME:

Anaheim & Nashville

EAST CHAMPS:

Nashville Predators

I’m concerned, and for a variety of reasons. I’m concerned because saying you’re 29 plus two sounds even lamer than 29 plus one, and I might have to start admitting to the 3rd decade. I’m concerned because I’m a decent musician who played his first sold out show 10 long years ago. I’m concerned because I played my last sold-out show 3 years ago. I’m concerned what it says about my tastes when my favorite red wine switches to a screw cap. I’m concerned that I even have a favorite red wine. I could go on and on about this, but let's just skip to the point. What's most concerning of all is this:

My favorite team is on top of just about everyone’s pre-season poll, including mine.

Its proof positive of the mad, mad world we live in. One where insanely talented NFL wide receivers try to off themselves with pain pills, and dirtbag ex-NHL goons get it with party-hopping hottie politicians.

In honour of all of that concerns me right now, here’s my preseason picks for the East (with approximate point totals):

EAST

Atlantic

New York – 105pts – Lundqvist. Shanahan. Yagr. Watch for a stong 2nd half.

New Jersey – 100 pts – Any question Lamoriello learned the most from last year?

Pittsburgh – 90 pts – Goaltending talent will finally come through.

Philadelphia - 75 pts – Forsberg can’t stay healthy, goaltending can’t get it done.

Islanders – 60 pts – Alexei Yashin.

Northeast

Buffalo – 115 pts – Ryan Miller, 4 solid lines and a chance to feast on a weaker northeast.

Ottawa – 90 pts – Watch for a big drop off in Danny Heatley’s game.

Boston – 90 pts – Goaltending wealth, Rookie of the year Phil Kessel.

Montreal – 85 pts – The goaltending and smaller forwards won’t hold up.

Toronto – 70 pts – Rebuilding with a strong veteran presence is a recipe for disaster.

Southeast

Carolina – 120pts – The new Detroit, efficiency and skill throughout. MVP Eric Staal.

Tampa Bay – 110pts – Goaltending problem solved, too much talent for a 2nd down year.

Atlanta – 100pts – Most predictably improving team, this is years in the making.

Washington – 90pts – Much improved but still one year away.

Florida – 65 pts – Add front office turmoil to an over-rated roster, and this is what you get.

 TOP 2 TEAMS COME PLAYOFF TIME:

New York & Buffalo

 EAST CHAMPS:

Buffalo Sabres

I can only describe the ESPN coverage of last night’s Monday Night Football game as uncomfortable. Everyone involved was out of their element, and you could tell. These are sportcasters, used to over-analyzing the inane facets o####ame built in large part around inane facets. They’re not social commentators, or tightrope walkers, or the 15 other skills that might have come in handy in wading into last night’s environment.

By merely broadcasting the game, grabbing the ratings, ESPN could do know wrong, but do no right either. They didn’t schedule the game, and didn’t plan every aspect of the pre-game celebrations, so they can’t be blamed for sounding uncomfortable. In many ways, uncomfortable may have been the most appropriate feeling.

Think of all the limits ESPN faced. The broadcast couldn’t put their brand on this, make it their own, something they do with great expertise. Everyone who touched a microphone tripped over themselves, trying to emphasize and deemphasize all at the same time. “The amazing rebuilding of the superdome… but while the 9th ward still sits largely destroyed of course” and similar statements came tumbling out of their mouths all night.

ESPN certainly couldn’t make too much of a connection between the joy of the fans in the seats and the disaster recovery outside, not when everyone watching knew full well that the hardest hit couldn’t have afford tickets before the storm, let alone now. The people who could afford season tickets more than likely faced a long drive out of town before the storm hit, and a horrible but recoverable situation when they returned. To them, this tragedy was the same faced by people who lose their homes to forest fires, mudslides, tornados and who knows what other natural phenomena wipe out homes in North America these days. And since those people aren’t expecting to receive a U2/Green Day tribute duet any time soon, ESPN couldn’t and didn’t go too far down that path.

Thankfully, ESPN stuck with what I had hoped they would. They admitted their limitations and mostly talked football. They talked replays and 3rd and long and cover 2 defenses. And even though it seemed almost embarrassing to jump between talking about evacuees and talking about yards-after-catch, they accepted the embarrassment with dignity, and they moved ahead.

This wasn’t baseball returning after the terrorist attacks, it was something completely different. It was as if ESPN took a stand and said loud and clear “this isn’t politics, this isn’t part of an agenda. We’re not congratulating anyone, but we’re not condemning anyone either. Don't look to us for a message. This is sports, pure and simple”

I see that there’s a lot of talk on US TV lately about the legacy of the two most recent presidencies, and how history will view their accomplishments and shortcomings. But politics is a reflection of the here and now, and holds only a portion of the historical significance of an event or age. Watching last night’s football game, I couldn’t help but wonder if it’s in fact a complete and utter moot argument. Not when $81 Billion dollars was lost, and 1.2 Million people were evacuated, because I can’t be the only one that thinks there’s a good chance that history texts will resign both presidents to a sidebar in a chapter entitled “The Katrina Response – A Study in Classes”. Odds are they’ll probably mention last night’s football game for longer.

Nowhere though, will they mention ESPN, and that’s exactly how it should be.

- The new Buffalo uniforms aren’t nearly as bad as they could have been. Kudos to Rebok for doing their best with that hilarious looking golden-slug of an emblem. I love the numbers on the front, and the solid colours are a nice change from the noisy red, black and silver.

- Sabres blanked the Leafs 4-0 in their first pre-season tilt, with all four goals on the powerplay. I figured that the young guys would really shine in this game, I just didn’t think it would be on the Sabres’ side. Its only one pre-season game, but that said it doesn’t bode well for Paul Maurice when his young guys, the only players for whom the pre-season means anything, wind up laying an egg like that. What Pohl and Ondres did last year made me take notice, but even with the potential those two are another game like last night away from peddling their wears in Ricoh come October.

- Sabres swing into the hammer to play a neutral site game against the Pens on Saturday night, and needless to say I’m there. You know, If I’m Lindy Ruff that night, in some ways I’d be hoping my team takes its fair share of penalties. Without McKee this team needs to be in top shape penalty-killing wise, and Pittsburgh’s guns are a great way to test it out. Wonder what the odds are both Crosby and Malkin see icetime that night.

- Speaking of the Pens, I checked it out this weekend and can report with certainty that the Mellon Arena is still a dump. PNC Park is still pretty boss though, especially when the game ends with 30,000 Mets fans going home disappointed.

- Tie Domi officially retired to become an analyst with TSN. I guess they needed someone to make Glenn Healy sound smart. What insights could a career goon and notorious cheap shot artist provide viewers, especially in the new breed NHL? Maybe he can regail us with tales of suspensions and suckerpunches. How about that time his gutless elbow on Niedermayer rallied the devils and cost his team any chance of winning in the ’01 playoffs. Good times, good times.

- More often than not, my girlfriend is the official voice of reason. Last night she thankfully spared me from watching Monday Night Football by insisting that I catch “Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip” with her. Now admittedly I’m not a TV buff by any stretch, but was one of the best shows I’ve ever seen, absolutely brilliant start to finish. Like a bigger, better West Wing, without the preachy politics. As for the football game, the only question I was left with was whether Big Ben is more grossly over-rated, or woefully unentertaining. NFL, the new soccer.

- You may have noticed I ditched the picture of me completely plastered and skateboarding down a road in the outer banks, replacing it with a shot of my dog on the bow of our boat. The salty spaniel lords over his cottage kingdom. My dog is all about the style.

...to pick an underdog, and I'm likely to do it. When it comes to the NHL, what fun is it to tuck your cahones away and pick Ottawa and Detroit every year? With that said, let's talk some hockey with guts!

WHY YOU SHOULDN'T BET AGAINST:

The Chicago Blackhawks - They upgraded an already decent team that just underachieved last season.  Khabibulin will not struggle two years in a row. They signed two very legit players in Martin Havlat and Michal Handzus, and Bryan Smolinski is no joke either. A heathly Tuomo Ruutu could easily mean a 30 goal swing. The Norfolk Admirals were 7 games over .500 last season.

The St. Louis Blues - John Davidson is credible, and Mike Kitchen gets two upgrades in assistants Rick Wamsley and Brad Shaw. Doug Weight and Bill Guerin aren't done just yet. Dan Hinote is a pain in the ####. Manny Legace can win some games, don't let anyone tell you otherwise. The Peoria Riverman were a very respectable 12 games over .500 last season.

The Pittsburgh Penguins - Evgeni Malkin. Even though he's 18, Jordan Staal might just be ready enough to contribute this year. The power play will be devestating. Nils Eckman is a contributor. Marc-Andre Fleury has more than enough talent to get it together in the NHL the way he dominates the AHL. Wilkes-Burre Scranton was a rediculous 22 games over .500.

The Boston Bruins - They lost the Thorton trade, but that doesn't mean the depth they received won't help them. Phil Kessel is an A+ player, was the steal of the draft at 6, and should see big club game time this year. Brad Boyes may be the last of a litany of first line youngsters the old Leaf's regime donated to the rest of the league . A healthy Alex Zhamnov is an enormous upgrade at center. The Providence Bruins were 7 games over .500 a season ago, and Eastern Conference finalists.

The Washington Capitals - Olaf Kolzig is not done just yet. Richard Zednik can be a big time upgrade. Chris Bourque can contribute at the NHL level. Oh yeah, and that Russian kid with the shot, the one who'll win MVP this year? He'll be everything expected of him and more. The Hershey Bears were 4 games over .500 in 2005/2006.

Back in May, there looked like a real good chance that an abnormally high number of three year olds could be entered in the '06 Classic. While injuries and underperformance have whittled down the potential runners, the remaining few are definitely solid enough to get the job done.

3 YEAR OLDS

Bernardini – The flashy pick. When he skipped the Belmont I wondered on this site if he was better suited to dominate the shorter distance of the Breeder’s Cup Mile. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Bernardini faced limited fields in winning the Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes, but he destroyed them with such conviction I don’t hold the quality of the field against him. The only way I see trouble for this horse is if a non-contender sets an unrealistic pace, and Castellano can’t hold the horse up.

Lawyer Ron – The unknown. He’s a winner of 5/6, including a late August win in the St. Louis Derby, his first race since surgery for a bone chip. In any other recent year he’d be a top three candidate, but I really need to see how he does in three weeks at the GII super derby before I put him anywhere beyond the middle of the pack.

Jazil – The opportunist. He's a hard closer that’s obviously better suited for long distances, but would take advantage of any lapse in pace.The horse is currently on the shelf with a bone bruise, and doubtful for the Classic. Unfortunately I don’t expect him to show up, but it sure would be nice. Along with Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat, part of a trio of 3 year-olds who could have strongly contended in this race.

- In case there was any doubt, let me put it to rest. If you sat through last night's season-opening pre-game festivities just so you wouldn't miss the kickoff, you made a horribly wrong choice and I feel for you immensely.

- no denying its current place as the 2nd biggest sports league on the planet, but does this sound like the vibe of a future sports powerhouse? Headline-grabbing harmless but talented nuts like Ricky Williams get run out of the country, but disturbed and dangerous drunk coaches get 1 game suspensions? Give me a break. I have a tonne of sympathy for people with substance abuse problems, but what the Detroit Lions, and by extention the NFL did here is inexcusible. The correct answer should be to send the team bus to pick him up when he finishes his Betty Ford program, and not a minute sooner. The NFL continues to succeed despite itself.

- You know, little by little I'm understanding the immense poularity of gambling, fantasy games and excessive beer consumption in regards to watching NFL football. All three serve to mask the subpar quality of most of the games themselves. My review of last nights Steeler/Dolphins matchup? zzzzzzzzzzzzz. The Pittsburgh Steelers are the pre-lockoutNew Jersey Devils of the NHL. At least the 4th quarter was somewhat interesting, when Culpepper seemed to sense my deafening snores and started uncorking some pretty risky throws. Who cares if two of them wound up as terrible interceptions, this is supposed to be entertainment. If I wanted to watch pawns march a field for a few hours, I'd join the army.

- If I have only one wish for the upcoming NFL season, let Carson Palmer and Payton Manning torch the league with a gunslinger's abandon.

- If I had a second wish, it would be to let Ben Rothlesberger, Tom Brady, and all the other boring system players fall flat on their faces.

Is the NBA becoming America’s first international game? I don't mean international in a citizenship sense, in that regard both baseball and hockey have also realized a great deal of internationalization. All three leagues have seen interpreters become an essential part of the team. Instead, I mean international in the sense of multiple backgrounds, multiple styles and personalities. The NBA has been a real exception to the idea of the American melting pot, the idea that everyone comes together under a common American thinking and lifestyle. A league where there’s truly more than one way to skin a cat, so to speak.

I heard a lot about the melting pot growing up. Social studies teachers used it as a means of illustrating one of only a few real day-to-day differences between American and Canadian living. I was always intrigued by this idea, being a citizen of both countries, living in Canada but spending weekends and summers in the states, and I was able to see first hand what those teachers were getting at. At home, people remained strongly identified with their homelands, retaining those practices and traditions which they felt were worth keeping. Conversely, in the U.S. people, including my family, identified proudly and positively with their Americanism over and above all else. I got a first hand knowledge of two different but successful ideologies in action.

There’s a similar trend in all but one of the major American sports. The melting pot mentality and the NFL go hand in hand. Like the vision of a single American identity, the NFL appears to be smart, efficient, and structured. I don’t think it’s too reaching to say that in general, assimilation is a key to success in football. Knute Rockne is Bart Starr is Walter Payton is Tom Brady. Helmets hide a difference in facial feature; structure hides a difference in identity.

In baseball, the player may be given a great deal of identity, but his game play is likewise melted down. The style of baseball played in the United States is generally the same as in Mexico, Cuba and Japan. Foreigners compete, but they do so with the same general skills and strategies that were developed by American players decades ago. Put another way, there’s a generally accepted “right” way to play baseball, a common thinking that is consistent with the melting pot ideology.

The same cannot be said for the NBA though. In fact, it’s arguable that the NBA long ago broke out of the melting pot, in that it’s operated successfully for years with two distinct identities. The emergence of the successful black athlete who brought with him an inner city background and style to the game forced the NBA to accept identity beyond its original ideals. Confronted with an urban player who wanted and deserved a voice to go along with their ability, they became a sport with multiple identities, multiple ways of success. People more adept than me have illustrated the importance of Texas Western’s NCAA win outside of sports, but suffice it to say that from purely a game-play perspective, their style of play wasn’t just different, it was to that date "unamerican". Most importantly though, it won games. It was a different but successful ideology in action.

The European teams, and as a result their exported players, likewise play a different game. There’s no mistaking the fact that Yao Ming is Chinese, that Dirk Nowitzki is German, no more than you can mistake that both play a uniquely "unamerican" game. It’s a trend, thirty years and running, of an expanded definition of the identity of NBA basketball.

So what’s it all mean in the long run? As a minimum, it speaks well to the health of basketball in America. At best, it could mean that basketball is slowly becoming the next soccer, redefining the international sporting world.

- Quick, name the only professional team to currently sport two Heismann trophy winners on the same roster. Eric Crouch played the role of a perfect backup all year, and played decent in his first chance this past weekend, going 4-9 and helping the Ricky Williams-less Toronto Argonauts to a 26-23 win. Williams meanwhile, before breaking a bone in his arm that will sideline him for a few weeks, was putting up some average numbers. Where he really impressed was is in his receiving numbers, an 8.3 yard average in 7 catches, improving on every snap.

- Speaking of the CFL, with the improved officiating and addition of instant replay this year, call me crazy but I’m now among the believers who say that the CFL has the best framework for professional football. It’s no secret that the CFL rules and field dimensions are geared towards a smaller, faster player. The game is built for the stereotypical athlete, and punishes the overly large, exclusive to football big man. The absence of a 4^th down stretches the field on the vast majority of plays, adding to the excitement, emphasizing the stars. The CFL lacks the parity of the NFL, but allows its star players a much more significant amount of time to shine.

It’s a contention that can never really be proven of course, because the CFL will never attract enough talent to test it, and the NFL knows that the value of the ‘fat man’ in its marketing is too big to make the 400lb lineman obsolete by playing a pass first, 3 down game. That said, who wouldn’t like to see Payton Manning put up 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions a game?

-Jazil is out of the Traver’s Stakes, having picked up a hind leg bruise in training. Unfortunately that means my oil-and-water Jazil vs. Bernardini dream match up looks to be down to the Breeder’s Cup Classic, or not at all. UPDATE - sorry, thats not entirely true, if Jazil heals well he could match up against Bernardini in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park on Oct. 7, a month before the Breeder's Cup.

-Who knew salary arbitration would be the rally killer to the string of good luck the NHL had been seeing the past 12 months. How long it will take before the league can correct the problem of rulings like Daniel Briere’s $5.1M award is unclear. When team’s like Chicago and Tampa Bay, (who can’t do the math and figure out that $5M for anyone short of Wayne Gretzky is a cap nightmare) are setting precedent in arbitration hearings, expect to see more and more teams walking away from the awards.

-Even with the Twins in the mix, it says here the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees have a better chance of catching wildcard leaders Chicago than AL East leaders Boston.

It was nice to see 50 thousand plus fans at a ball game in Toronto again, even if a quarter of them were there to see the Yankees. Here’s hoping more Western New Yorkers start supporting the local team, the same way Southern Ontario helps keep the Bills afloat. As long as they keep their 45mph driving minivans out of the left lane on the way to and from that is. Seriously, I’m talking to you Tony from Amherst with the Rush Limbaugh bumpersticker, you don’t need to learn metric, just learn to get out of the way. You can't drive any slower unless the mayor is on your roof throwing candy.

Golden Horned Slugs on the Warpath!

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