What to predict, what to predict? Let's take a look at some teams listed as viable Super Bowl contenders this year:
Colts: 1-2 Jaguars: 2-2 Patriots: 2-1 (and very misleading, at that) Chargers: 2-2 Vikings: 1-3 (though I never considered them a genuine Super Bowl team, the hype was certainly there)
Now, we all could imagine that some of the teams on this list would have come across some difficulties at this point in the season, but I don't think anybody imagined they all would. The AFC is wide open, and that's a preliminary to one of my picks. I'm not crazy, I swear to you. TEN @ BAL: Tennessee hasn’t beaten any great teams yet, but Baltimore doesn’t fall into the “great team” category anyhow. Tennessee has the stingier defense and a veteran at quarterback. Upset special for Baltimore? I can’t call it. Winner: Tennessee
KC @ CAR: Kansas City didn’t so much prove that they are decent football team as much as they merely highlighted just how bad Denver is on the defensive side on the ball. They won’t run all day on Carolina, and Carolina gets a sure win at home. Winner: Carolina
CHI @ DET: Detroit finally ousted Millen. Detroit is still the same Detroit we know and love, and the same Detroit that Detroit fans find painful to watch. Winner: Chicago
ATL @ GB: Aaron Rodgers doesn’t need to be Brett Favre. He’s known that for years as Favre’s backup, and with an organization that showed some guts in supporting him, he won’t forget it this week. It’s unrealistic. One thing I admire about Rodgers is that he looks like a guy who’s learned from a great quarterback and is trying to make a mark as a great quarterback in his own right, as opposed to trying to be the guy that he studied under. Rodgers will be ready to go if he plays on Sunday. Winner: Green Bay IND @ HOU: Indianapolis has been ####ed up. With the bye week, they are still hurting. They’ll be alright though. They have time to heal before playing Tennessee, and they’ll take this one from Houston. Peyton Manning will have a level-head, and for football fans, it’s going to be exciting to watch Peyton Manning grind out Ws. Winner: Indianopolis
SD @ MIA: In a recent blog post, I projected Miami sneaking into the playoffs this year on a wildcard spot in a shaky AFC. That starts here with a huge upset over San Diego. Granted, I think the Chargers are still looking damn good to take the conference this year with the way things have been going in the AFC, I still think this Miami team has upset potential. They don’t turn the ball over, and their one-two in the backfield is going to be rough on the Chargers. Winner: Miami
SEA @ NYG: Having the Bengals at home was a trap game, and as a Giants fan, it wasn’t the kind of thriller you like to see your team take part in. However, a “W” is a “W”, and the trap-game has come and gone. Or has it? The Giants are notoriously bad after the bye. Plaxico has been benched. However, I think the young guys will pick up the slack very nicely, seizing one of the few opportunities to be the go-to receivers they will have this year. The Giants have to pick up a win following a bye at some point or another, don’t they? Winner: New Jersey
WAS @ PHI: Philly is a physical team, and they are at home. But the Redskins have some confidence, and they’ll ride it out into this week over an Eagles team that has their greatest component on offense listed as questionable. This will put Philly in a tough spot if they lose, and Washington will be getting the Super Bowl hype when they win. Winner: Washington
TB @ DEN: Explosive offense, or great defense? I’ll take the great defense sir, and can I get a little “your offense couldn’t outscore the Kansas City Chiefs” on the side? Thank you. Have a good one. Winner: Tampa Bay
BUF @ ARI: Buffalo hasn’t gotten much credit at 4-0, and no, maybe they don’t deserve it. But take a look around the AFC and tell me who has lived up to the expectations? The Bills will be listed as a weak 5-0, but that’s still just two wins short of the total they accounted for last season in a 5 games as opposed to 16. Winner: Buffalo
CIN @ DAL: You know, Dallas has the talent, but I just think they are poised to fall apart against the Bengals. Oh, I couldn’t resist that. In all seriousness, Cincinatti without Carson Palmer means that the “any given Sunday” rule does not even apply. Winner: Dallas
NE @ SF: The Gold Rush is back! The Gold Rush is back! The Gold Rush is back! The problem is that New England is going to loot the 49ers down to their last peso. Winner: New England
PIT @ JAC: Pittsburgh is ####ed up. Jacksonville isn’t 100% either though, and Pittsburgh’s defense is still a rough unit. I’m going to bank on the fact that Jacksonville, while they will generate pressure, it won’t be enough to put Big Ben out of the game like the Eagles had. Winner: Pittsburgh
MIN @ NO: The Saints offense is starting to get some momentum going, and Minnesota has been dealt a tough slate and now finds themselves at 1-3. I’m going to pick against the Vikings in spite, seeing as in the preseason, they rivaled the Saints of ’07 with all of the Super Bowl hype surrounding what was in reality a .500 team. And to be honest, I just can’t stand that. Winner: Saints
Twelve teams make the playoffs in this league. That being said, these
rankings will feature six teams from each conference. No more. No less.
Your team may be a top 12 team in theory, but when push comes to shove,
only 12 teams make the playoffs. As they stack up right now, the only
teams that have proven anything remain in the NFC East. Bias? I guess
one could call it that, but the top two teams in the AFC just haven't
beaten anybody, and the rest of the conference is off to a pretty sorry
start, considering where they were just a year ago.
1. New York Giants (NFC East division title):
The defending Super Bowl champions are in first place in hands down the
best division of football. Granted, any team in the NFC East could take
the division, but right now, with Dallas hitting a snag, the Giants are
undeniably the team to beat. If I sound biased, I really could care
less. With what we've seen in the NFL this year, the Giants deserve the
#1 spot, especially after a Cowboys loss. Granted, it was week 1 and
this Redskins team has gotten better, but the Giants kept Washington
out of that game altogether, and the Redskins are proving they are a
talented football team. The defending champs are consistent on both
sides of the ball, ranked 4th in both total offense and total defense,
as well as tied for 2nd in the league in points allowed at 14.3 per
game.
2. Washington Redskins (Wildcard): The Washington
Redskins are doing what everybody is marveling at the Titans for doing,
only they are playing ball-control football against better teams.
That's exactly why I had the Redskins picked for an upset in Dallas.
Both the Titans and the 'Skins share the league lead with a +6 turnover
differential. However, the Redskins have proven they can control the
ball against a talented cowboys team, holding onto the ball for over 38
minutes in that game. That's the kind of play that brings home
championships.
3. Dallas Cowboys (Wildcard): The
biggest cause for concern for the Cowboys is what makes the Washington
Redskins a tough football team. Ball control. They have a big-play
offense, and the kind of offense that is liable to score on an opposing
defense every time it takes the field. That's all fine and good, but
twice this year Dallas has had problems in the time of possession
battle. Against the Eagles, they were dominated in that regard into the
third quarter of play. The Redskins dominated that battle throughout.
The Dallas defense is solid, but when put out on the field for twice as
long as the offense, they are put into a bad situation. That will wear
on this defense and the unit may have problems late in the season if
the Dallas offense doesn't manage the clock better.
4. Buffalo Bills (AFC East division title):
Sure, Titans fans probably aren't too happy to see their team not in
the top two, let alone fall behind the Bills. At the very least, the
opponents the Bills have beaten combine for a total of 4-11, which is
one game ahead of those that Tennessee has beaten. Their defense is
playing well, and their offense is far more explosive than that of
Tennessee. If you're looking for a the overlooked mark the Bills have
made through the first four that resembles that of a championship
squad, look no further than their defense's ability to come up with the
stop on third down, with a league leading 19.2%. Granted, this will
probably change once they encounter better opponents, but even to force
weaker teams punt more than four out of five times is damn good.
5. Tennessee Titans (AFC South Division title):
The Titans have yet to beat a legitimate opponent this year, so I'm
sorry I'm not sorry for ranking them this low, considering their four
opponents have a combined record of 3-12. How this fact has completely
escaped the minds of fans and analysts alike is beyond me. They are
ranked a whopping 22nd in the league in offense. Now, that being said,
I've always said the Titans were a good team, and they are playing good
football. They just haven't done anything great yet this year, and a
division that was supposed to be the AFC counterpart to the NFC East is
a whopping 3-7 outside of Tennessee, while the East is 8-4 outside of
the front-running New York Giants.
Plenty of people will draw
comparisons between the Titans and championship teams. The
difference-maker is that championship teams do what the Titans are
doing now to good football teams. I'll believe in the Titans when they
grind one out against a team with a winning record.
6. Carolina Panthers (NFC South division title): The Panthers have
played well, and winning the first two without Steve Smith was solid.
They get the one-up over the Bucs here because they don't turn the ball
over so much on offense, even though the Buc's defensive play has made
up for that. Still, at 3-1, the Panthers only have outscored opponents
by a total of 10 points. What to make of that? Well, they have some
resolve, that's for sure. Two wins decided by a field goal or less came
against good teams in the Chargers and Bears, without Steve Smith. The
loss to the Vikings will go overlooked, for now.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North division winner): Yes, the
offense has taken a couple of more hits and losing a starting guard is
no joke for a line that has already been looking poor. Still, the
Steelers defense is one that will win games for them. Surprisingly
enough, they are behind only the Redskins and Titans in the turnover
differential column, and that's a credit to Big Ben just as much as it
is this defense. Despite taking an absolute beating, Roethlisberger has
kept a good handle on the ball.They will grind out wins, and with
Cleveland looking in poor shape this year, it will be another division
title for Pittsburgh.
8. San Diego Chargers (AFC West division title): San Diego Super
Chargers? I'm Ron Burgundy? Well, San Diego came back and beat the
Raiders to avoid a 1-3 start. Granted, they haven't been playing great
football, but for this team, it was merely the "W" they needed. Much
like the Colts need to do in this week upcoming, the Chargers bought
some time to get back into a groove. They will, and fortunately for
them, the Broncos don't have the defense to make a run at the division
crown.
9. Green Bay Packers (NFC North division winner):
Aaron Rodgers is currently being limited to handoffs in practice, but
it looks as though he is going to start against the Falcons. It was a
toss-up between Da Bears and the Pack, but I just can't bank on Kyle
Orton to play decent enough week in and week out. We won't have an idea
until week 11, and that's one to mark on the calender. The Packers got
the guns on offense. Da Bears have the defense. Sure, defense wins
championships, but nobody ever said offense couldn't get you there. The
Packers defense will settle down and get back to their '07 form, giving
them the edge.
10. Indianapolis Colts (Wildcard): The
Colts are off to a shaky start and are being dragged down by injuries.
They needed that bye week, and all they need to do this week is stay
healthy against the Texans and come away with the "W". This is not a
statement game for the Colts. They've got three games upcoming before
they take on the Titans, and I can certainly see them coming away with
two of those to pull to .500. They ought to be quite a bit healthier
when they take on the Titans, which will make for an exciting game. The
Colts will heal up, and much like the 2006 regular season which ended
with a Super Bowl victory, the Colts will be dangerous come playoff
time. Perhaps it's even better for this team to not have a chance to
rest in the last week of the season, as it surely didn't help them in
'07.
11. Arizona Cardinals (NFC West division title): Arizona was
brought down to earth in these past couple of weeks, and if I didn't
have a crazy wildcard selection to throw at you, they would be in the
twelve spot. The Arizona Cardinals are going to be that one team that
keeps the fans guessing, "Is there really going to be a 7-9 team in the
playoffs this year?" Brought back down to earth via the Redskins and
Jets, this Cardinals team will win in the same fashion many thought the
Seahawks would earn a playoff berth: keeping their head above water in
a very weak division. Good news for the Cardinals though: the Gold Rush
is not in fact back, the Seahawks are sending Holmgren off in dramatic
fashion, and the Rams are making a case for the #1 draft selection.
12. Miami Dolphins (Wildcard): Call
me crazy. Say it again. I'll take two for this one, but in a weak
division and conference this year, the Dolphins have the guns to grab
that last spot. I just said the Dolphins have the guns to grab that
last spot. I did. I said it, and I will take all accountability for
saying it. However, seeing as turnovers are the theme of the day, let's
throw a number out there: 1. Just one turnover by this Dolphins team
this year, and that single turnover was a Pennington interception in
the final second of the Dolphins/Jets contest in a situation in which
he had to force a pass. But that's not the whole story here.
The
one-two punch of Brown/Williams finally got going in full effect last
week. With Pennington being the "underrated game manager" that he is,
and I wholeheartedly agree with the SRMgenius when he says that, this
offense has the pieces to be real good. The defense is young, but not
terrible. They will make progress. Most importantly, it's a Bill
Parcells team, and everybody knows that he can turn around the league's
worst faster than anybody.
An upset over San Diego in week 5
is a viable possibility, especially with the coaching staff's apparent
willingness to get creative with the play-calling. The Dolphins went up
against a very good receiving core (even without Brady, a tough unit to
cover) against New England, and had the bye week to serve as additional
preparation. One can imagine that they will throw something interesting
out there. A win over San Diego would set the tone for the rest of the
season, and would put the Dolphins right there in the mix.
Dark horses:
Philadelphia Eagles: Shame to call this team a dark horse, but right now they seem to be falling back to Philly's old bad habits. They could easily make the top ten on the rankings here, and they could very well make the playoffs with a wildcard berth. With every single game in this NFC East being so critical though, Philly has to be able to close out games. They haven't done that in two big games this year.
Denver Broncos: I'm sorry, but a team that is all offense and absolutely no defense is hard to consider a playoff team, especially if dropping a game to the Kansas City Chiefs is any indication. Definitely got some firepower and could very well pull it together, but I do think this team is poised for an average season, and not a whole lot more.
Week Four in the NFL. Things have settled down. Last week, I picked 'em decently enough, but credit to the Cowboys for picking up another "W", despite the fact that I sincerely thought the Pack could grind one out at home. The Packers have a good football team, but the NFC East is quickly becoming a league of its own, and I can't say enough about them. Yes, they only play one game out of the division this week, but that is a very winnable one for the Eagles, and the East could very well be a perfect 9-0 against the rest of the league heading into week five. That's a bit more difficult than it sounds, and the beauty of it is that each divisional contest will hold the significance of a playoff game. That's a lot of good football on the slate.
CLE 14 @ CIN 28: Carson Palmer and Cincinnati showed resolve last week, and played well to give the defending champs a serious run for their money in the Meadowlands. Cleveland, has fallen short of every single expectation of them this season, and they'll be the team to continue on winless through the first quarter of the season.
HOU 7 @ JAC 20: Jacksonville drove down the field to beat the Colts in Indy last week, just after Peyton had apparently nailed the coffin shut. Houston has been another disappointment this year, and will be a nice stepping stone for Jacksonville as they make it back to .500.
ATL 16 @ CAR 21: Atlanta's been averaging over 200 yards on the ground through the first three. That will take a lot of pressure off of a rookie quarterback, and that will make this game interesting. However, it won't be enough to topple the Panters. Carolina will ultimately bounce back from last week's setback.
ARI 35 @ NYJ 20: One ancient quarterback versus another, but on the bright side, they are high-profile old-timers. Arizona and that offense is just too much for the Jets to handle though, and Favre just doesn't have a good enough grasp of the offense yet. Hey, Chad Pennington's looking pretty good over there in Miami. Maybe the Jets could trade for him?
MIN 13 @ TEN 17: This week's defensive struggle, and one of the better games this week. These teams are very similar, with great defense and great running games. Tennessee has the better QB in Kerry Collins though, and he can still manage the game consistently and efficiently. Titans grind out the win at home.
GB 28 @ TB 20: The game will not be as close as the score suggests. In the NFC, the teams could be divided into two divisions: the NFC East, and the Rest. Green Bay, coming off of a loss to Dallas, is still the best of the Rest.
SF 27 @ NO 17: The Niners haven't beaten impressive teams, but that's not to say they haven't impressed. From where they were last year, to be looking at 3-1 through the first four has to inspire some confidence. New Orleans is ####ed up on offense, and their defense has played poorly, as expected. No Shockey, and their top two wideouts will be absent from this contest as well. Not looking good for the Saints.
DEN 45 @ KC 10: Denver is explosive on offense, and while the defensive play is a huge concern, their isn't much to worry about against the Kansas City Chiefs. An exciting one for Broncos fans to watch, but not so much for the rest us. Kansas City is in rebuilding mode, but what remains to be done is the removal of Herm Edwards.
BUF 35 @ STL 17: Scott Linehan got to go. The Rams need something, and it's not coming this year. Watching the Rams play the Giants in week two, it was fairly easy to draw that conclusion just by looking at the guy's demeanor on the sideline. He's wound tighter than a clam's ####, and that's certainly not what a football team that is beaten and getting blown out week after week needs. Bills to move to 4-0. SD 31 @ OAK 13: The San Diego Super Chargers pull back to .500 this week against a Raiders team that won't have a whole lot of fight left in them, as Al Davis continues to do whatever it takes to drain that from the team. Kiffin is still here, but having him on the chopping block is a bad situation if you're looking for wins. Back to the Chargers, all of the sudden an 0-2 start becomes nothing to worry about, especially with former AFC heavyweights dropping like flies around them.
WAS 23 @ DAL 20: Yes, I am not showing Dallas the love they've earned to this point. Dallas has more talent, but I like the way Washington's been playing, and that offense will progress with each week, as they become more comfortable with the scheme. Just how has Washington been winning games, pulling wins out against the Saints and the Cardinals, gives reason to believe in them. Washington is 1st in the league in turnover differential, currently at +5. Dallas is tied for 27th, at -3. Teams can have a world of talent and win games without winning the turnover battle. However, once they get into close contests against tough opponents (exactly what they are slated for this week), losing the turnover battle means losing the game. That's why I'm going way out on a limb here in picking the Redskins for the upset.
PHI 24 @ CHI 13: I wasn't sure if Philly was the real deal after what I saw out of them in Dallas. Granted, at that point, I wasn't sure if Dallas was all they were hyped up to be, as both teams looked sloppy at times in the Monday Night match-up. Philly bounced back the very next week though with a defensive performance that will send chills through offensive coordinators scheduled to play them. Jim Johnson and this Philly "D" at full force in a Philly win.
BAL 10 @ PIT 20: Pittsburgh's defense played considerably well in Philadelphia. The offense just couldn't get anything going, and for this defense to reach the sideline and then turn around, head back onto the field, and continue to play well shows they have great durability. Yes, Big Ben was sacked countless times and the Steelers converted 15% of their third downs (2/13). However, the question of whether this Baltimore offense can move the ball on a defense that has allowed the second fewest points in the league and the third fewest total yards is a great one. Take Pittsburgh.
With trap-game weekend over and a colossal regular game winning streak
brought to an end by a team known most recently for its rather ugly
losing streaks, we are left with five 3-0 squads here in the NFL. Oddly
enough, it's hard to find any of these teams as a pseudo-undefeated
squad. They all have talent, and while one could make the argument that
Denver should not be on the list, they still had to drive the length of
the field to go down and punch it in. With what was thought to be the
class of the AFC in the Steelers losing a tough one to the Eagles,
there is a tilt to the NFC at this point, despite the AFC having three
3-0 squads.
1. Dallas Cowboys:
Natural inclination would lead me to put my Giants in this slot, as
they are 3-0 and coming off a run for the Lombardi trophy. However,
Dallas has been battle-tested more than any team in the league, just
three weeks into the season. The Browns have proven to be not worthy of
the hype to this point, but putting up 41 points (34 on offense)
against a Jim Johnson defense is always worth noting. And they beat a
tough Packers team that is proving they can play without Favre, and the
kicker is this one wasn't at Texas Stadium either. The Pack got beat at
home, and the Cowboys stuck it to them pretty good. No need to reel off
a list of Pro Bowl names for you, as they will get plenty of attention
throughout the season.
The only danger this Cowboys team may be in is a danger that every team
in the East faces: falling asleep on your divisional rivals. Just as
well, that is a message to the rest of the division. Dallas has five
games left in the East, and outside o####ame in Pittsburgh, those are
looking to be perhaps the only ones that the Cowboys are really going
to have to fight for. The rest of the East has to beat Dallas if they
want to challenge for the division crown, because the rest of the
league is looking in poor shape to pick up the slack.
The East is no longer the class of the NFC. The NFC East, unbeaten through week 3 of the season, is the class of the NFL.
2. New York Giants:
This Giants squad, known primarily as a defensive team, relied on its
offense to pull one out against Cincinatti. Yes, the Giants faced an
0-2 Bengals team, but let's not forget how ferocious an offense that
can be when they are on their game. Carson Palmer is still a priemere
quarterback, and Cincinatti has enough offensive weapons to rival
Dallas when playing as a unit. The Bengals O-line gave up three sacks
over their first two games, arguably the only positive for that offense
over that stretch. However, for the Giants to sack Palmer six times and
for Palmer to be able to keep the Bengals in it was nothing short of
spectacular. The Giants defense didn't control the tempo in that one,
which I don't think they are used to.
But for this Giants
offense to come to fruition and win a close game when called upon is
the mark of a championship caliber squad. The Giants offense was the
hallmark of inconsistency in '07, and they have looked revamped with
several new dimensions in '08. Eli Manning has been able to rely on a
receiving core that led the league in dropped passes last year,
allowing him to spread the ball around beautifully. The Giants'
backfield once again reared its ugly head and demonstrated why it is
just so dangerous.
I likened the rivalry between the Giants
and Cowboys to that between Ali and Frazier for a reason (and long
before Howie Long ever made the reference), and that is because these
two teams are going to fight tooth and nail for a full fifteen rounds
every time they face each other, and right now, they are the best in
the league, with Philadelphia being very close as well (didn't make the
cut though because of a loss to Dallas).
3. Buffalo Bills:
Looking for a proven winner? Let's try Buffalo, who has won two games
against playoff squads of '07 in our short three week season (Seattle and Jacksonville). Trent
Edwards has thrown a single pick and completed 67 percent of his passes
through his first 3 games. The receiving core has been dynamic, with
Josh Reed making some sizable contributions that tend to go unnoticed
with the gaudy numbers that Lee Evans puts up (20.33 yards per catch
over 12 receptions to this point). Marshawn #### is a workhorse and
can put on some catlike moves when the situation calls for it, and the
defense has been solid.
The story surrounding the Bills however, is just how with every passing
game, it seems more and more likely that the Bills are going to run
away with the AFC East. The division is hurting outside of Buffalo.
Belichick showed us all that he may not be the guru that he's choked up
to be, as his defense had absolutely no answer for an 0-2 Miami
Dolphins offense that dropped 38. Last time I checked, Tom Brady does
not in fact play defense, but it seems the Pats are falling hard
without him. The Dolphins and Jets are fairly impossible to gauge, but
it would appear more than likely that they will not contend for the
division title. Facing a decidedly easy schedule up ahead, it's quite
possible that the Bills, yes, the Buffalo Bills, could pile up 12-13
win season. They are young, healthy, and poised to take advantage of
the opportunity that has presented itself.
4. Tennessee Titans:
The Titans may have even gotten a boost by having Collins under center.
Despite what people are saying of Vince Young, I stil think he has
potential to be a solid, versatile QB in this league. But he needs a
break, to get a chance to break some bad habits and improve his passing
skills. Kerry Collins is a solid quarterback. He won't dazzle you, but
his IQ hasn't diminished, and he never was a mobile quarterback, so not
a whole lot lost there. His return can be likened to that of Kurt
Warner and what he is doing for the Arizona Cardinals, in providing
consistently solid play from the quarterback position. I've watched
Collins for some time now, as he was a Giant for a good number of
years. He can play.
Now, the play of the rest of this Tennessee
squad speaks for itself. The defense has been exceptional, and though
they have yet to undertake a real test, holding three NFL teams to 9.7
points per game still exemplifies solid play. In the backfield, the
rookie Chris Johnson has been explosive. Everybody knows it, but I will
reiterate that Tennessee has one of the best front sevens in the
league. A strong running game and a solid defense will win you games,
plain and simple. But, there is still a lot of talent and a lot of
heart in that AFC South. Tennessee is looking like a solid playoff
contender, but they are going to have to grind out a division title. No
way around it.
5. Denver Broncos: The Broncos land fifth on the list for two
reasons. The first being that they are undefeated partly due to a blown
call by Ed Hochuli. The second reason to give is that while this team's
offense has been explosive, there defense has been allowing 28 points
per game. More or less, the Broncos are this year what everybody had
hyped the Saints up to be (once again, missing the mark however), which
is an offensive juggernaut that can score enough points to compensate
for an average defense. Jay Cutler has been phenomenal (68% passes
completed, 914 yards with only 2 picks), and his receiving core, headed
by record-breaking rookie Brandon Marshall, has been stellar. However,
the old adage that defense wins championships is more often than not
true, and the Broncos really need to pick up their defensive play.
Forget the call by Ed Hochuli. All in all, the Chargers shouldn't have
allowed them to drive the length of the field. The Chargers' defense
even got a second chance to win the game on a put-up or shut-up two
point conversion attempt. They lost the game twice after Hochuli blew
the call. For those of you that remember, a blown call on a botched
field goal attempt cost the Giants a game in the wildcard round against
the 49ers. The game could have been won on that play, but it certainly
wasn't lost on that play. No, with 20 minutes to play, the Giants
allowed 25 points, and the 49ers advanced. The Broncos won, plain and
simple. Bad calls happen all the time, and the Chargers had
opportunities (and I stress the plural) to compensate for that call but
did not.
Still, the Broncos need to improve their defensive play. The playoffs
are where the teams that epitomize great defense emerge, and a great
defense can make a great offense look helpless. Take a look at the
record-breaking Patriots' offense of the '07-'08 season. The ended
their season because a great defense had schemed their offense
perfectly, and when it came down to the battle of defenses, New England
played well but could not match the intensity of the Giants' "D". Which
team held the record for most points scored before the Patriots? It was
the Minnesota Vikings, and only god knows which year, as nobody talks
about it because they didn't even make the Super Bowl that year. The
Chargers have serious talent and could be the #1 seed in the AFC come
January. But will that amount to a serious playoff run? Not unless they
sure up that defense.
After a crazy week in the NFL and a dismal week in regards to my picks, I'm looking for a much more sound week. While I did throw down one too many upset specials (by that, I'm referring to my picking of Cleveland over Dallas), the two other teams I picked to upset brought the game down to the final drive, threatening not only in their respective opponent's territory, but threatening with do or die circumstances. Those two teams would be the Dolphins and the Bucs. There were definitely a few games this week that were beyond predictable. The Colts lose at home to the Chicago Bears? The Chargers fall short to the Panthers? And while Buffalo was a reasonable pick to win, I don't think anybody could foresee them putting the lights out on the Seahawks.
One pick I did have going for me was the Green Bay Packers winning at home. Rodgers played just as well as he did at Dallas last year. That was not an upset, but merely just bringing the Minnesota Vikings back down to earth. I will reiterate. The Vikings are reminiscent to the Saints of '07: overhyped and overrated.
This is how the NFL is shaping up for week two:
TEN 20 @ CIN 10: Tennessee is minus Young, but that matters not. Kerry Collins is still a solid QB who can step in and win games. And well, Cincy was looking bad heading into week one, and now they just look awful.
BUF 24 @ JAC 27: One of the tougher games to call, but I'm going with Jacksonville at home over the upstart Bills. The Bills are exciting, but they played a soft-looking Seahawks team. Jacksonville bounces back in a close one. NO 28 @ WAS 17: The Redskins will take a few weeks before anybody gets a read on what will become of them this year. With the way Jim Zorn ran his two minute offense without that critical hurry-up aspect, don't expect a whole lot.
NYG 27 @ STL 7: In reference to a post I made a few weeks ago, the Giants looked very much like the NFL's Joe Frazier in the opener. They didn't continue to batter the Redskins offensively in the second half, but the defense held on eight of eleven in third down situations and looked strong throughout. Expect much of the same this week in a thoroughly one-sided Giants' victory.
GB 35 @ DET 14: The Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay Packers continue to roll.
CHI 14 @ CAR 24: I'm not hopping on the Bears' bandwagon, but Carolina looks to be tough this year, and they will win by two scores. IND 31 @ MIN 17: Indy, despite a poor week one performance, lays it to the Vikings, who unexpectedly start the season two games behind Green Bay after just two weeks.
OAK 14 @ KC 20: A battle between two pretty bad teams, and Oakland is the worse of the two.
ATL 17 @ TB 20: Michael Turner was signed to be the spark plug in this Atlanta offense, and he will make the game interesting. However, the Bucs are the better team all around, and they will bounce back this week.
SF 21 @ SEA 27: Wow. A week ago I wouldn't have imagined this one as a tough pick. Seattle at home, but not by much.
BAL 10 @ HOU 20: Rookie quarterbacks have their ups and downs, and the Texans will be looking to bounce back from the spanking they took last week. Texans even out against the Ravens, and Joe Flacco will get a taste a Mario Williams.
MIA 21 @ ARI 14: Call me crazy but I like what I saw from the Dolphins a week ago (minus the lack of a running game). They had a shot to win the game on the final drive, and that in itself is a good sign. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown will show up big this week, and Pennington will manage a Dolphins victory.
SD 28 @ DEN24: The Chargers lost on the final play to what looks to be a very competent Panthers squad. Denver went out and beat the Raiders senseless, but they are the Oakland Raiders and still a miserable team at that. Still, a good, close game in a Chargers win.
NE 10 @ NYJ 17: The experts are saying not to write the Patriots off, and that makes guys like me look more like an expert every day. As in the preseason, New England just looks like they do not want to be their without Brady on the field. Cassel will soon follow suit once he begins to play decent NFL teams. PIT 28 @ CLE 27: I'm not sure that will be the actual score, but I'm lending emphasis to how close this game will be. Pittsburgh looked great last week and Cleveland looked awful. But in this rivalry, the games will be exciting and down to the wire, and they will still usually end with a Pittsburgh victory.
PHI 24 @ DAL 21: Hands down, the game of the week. I referred to the Giants/Dallas rivalry in another post as similar to that of Ali and Frazier. Philadelphia looks to be emerging as this year's George Foreman in that context, but there will be no rope-a-dope coming from Dallas. Philly wins in Philly fashion, with Donovan McNabb and Westbrook leading the offense and Jim Johnson masterminding this defense. Johnson's disciple Steve Spagnuolo ended the Cowboys' Super Bowl hopes this year, and the guru will pick up where his protege left off.
Let's kick it off. I will throw an upset special or two into the mix
here, and I look forward to any thoughts an opinions anyone might be
willing to share.
Crack open a cold one, 'coz it's football season, baby.
WAS 14 @ NYG 31: Giants by seventeen here, as the offense will
roll and the defense will look good. The Redskins haven't looked too
solid. If Jason Taylor does not play, the 'Skins D will have a
difficult task ahead of them.
DET 27 @ ATL 13: Detroit will win and Jon Kitna may feel good
enough about it to promise a Super Bowl. But everyone else will know
that the Atlanta Falcons are the Atlanta Falcons, Jon Kitna is Jon
Kitna, and the Lions are still a .500 team at best.
CIN 14 @ BAL 10: Cincy has a receiver to cover for a hurt Chad
Ocho Cinco, but may struggle in the running game. Still, the Ravens have no quarterback. Joe Flacco, did it really come to you already?
SEA 24 @ BUF 20: Seattle is not as tough as they are thought to
be, and the impression of a team that barely edged the Redskins in the
playoffs last year before getting walloped by the Packers remains. They
will still edge the Bills in this one.
NYJ 14@ MIA 17: Everybody will be looking to see Favre light it
up, and while that may happen, I have a feeling Pennington will be the
story of the week after upsetting his former team. He's about as tough
as they come and has more talent (but lacked blocking) than most would
care to realize.
KC 13 @ NE 28: Just because the entire New England team as a
whole looks as though they don't even want to be out there on the
field, my gut tells me to pick against them purely on principle.
Against any halfway decent team, I would. But NE is lucky to have KC as
a get-it-together game. That could still go both ways heading into week
two though, as getting back into the habit of going for it on fourth
downs will hurt them.
TB 28 @ NO 20: Tampa Bay, the more well-rounded team will win
this one. Looking at players who want it bad, one might be inclined to
focus on Shockey. But the moment things don't go Shockey's way, he
forgets how to be a teammate and how to just shut up and play his role.
On the other hand, we have Jeff Garcia, who just a few weeks ago was
more or less told by his organization that he would be Favre's backup.
Garcia is an average quarterback, but he can get fired up and playing
well. With something to prove, Garcia will have a big game.
STL 10 @ PHI 17: Philly has looked good lately, and they will
start the season on a good note against the Rams. The game will be a
lot more one-sided than the final score will suggest.
HOU 14 @ PIT 20: Pittsburgh at home. Pittsburgh at home. The Steelers have tough schedule, but this is a game they will win.
JAC 28 @ TEN 17: Jacksonville is a tough team and can move the
ball on offense, and I don't think Vince Young will be able to exploit
their secondary.
DAL 31 @ CLE 35: Upset special. The Cowboys will be brought down
to earth in week one, losing an offensive shootout with the Browns. The
Browns didn't look great in the preseason, but they are more liable to
show up determined to pull the upset, and they have the guns on offense
to do it.
CAR 17 @ SD 24: San Diego, and it will be their playmakers on
defense that make the difference. Phillip Rivers may struggle a bit,
especially with the impending comeback of Julius Peppers, but he has an
MVP in the backfield to bail him out.
ARI 20 @ SF 10: 'Zona, with Kurt Warner at the helm.
CHI 6 @ IND 24: Not even a question, as the Bears are a team
that have no upset potential in them. They are a mess, two years
removed from the Super Bowl, playing the very team that beat them up
pretty good.
MIN 14 @ GB 20: Minnesota are similar to the Saints of '07:
overhyped and overrated. Green Bay, a very talented team before even
considering the quarterback position, is underrated. Rodgers is the
right guy for them to have, as he is young enough to withstand the
temperatures at Lambeau in January, something Favre apparently could
not do.
DEN 21 @ OAK 7: The Raiders still aren't close yet. Another year of growing pains for Oakland fans.
Is it me, or does it seem that the NFL as a whole is more exciting to watch than in recent years? Sure, the regular season has yet to get underway, but it seems that we have more potential Super Bowl contenders and teams on the rise than we could care to count right now. Hell, even the preseason has been entertaining, and as a football fan, I feel as though there may not be a better time to be one. And while the Favre drama may have been a bit overdone during the offseason and into training camp, for a die-hard, it certainly took some of the pain away from not being able to catch a game of football at least twice a week.
Starting with the comparisons between the AFC and NFC, in recent years, the AFC has been unquestionably the better conference. The Patriots and the Colts had been considered a league of their own, and many went as far to say that their classic AFC championship game match-ups may very well have been the real "Super Bowl". Even right up until Super Bowl XLII had reached it's conclusion, the expectations of the NFC representative were limited.
Even before the Giants had made their postseason run, it seemed as though the so-called experts were merely picking which NFC team would make the game the most interesting, as the Patriots capped off their glorious 19-0 run that was never to be. Some favored Dallas, whose offense could at the very least make the game a high scoring affair. Others seemed to favor Green Bay for the irresistible headline Brady versus the Old Gunslinger Brett Favre would provide. But not many thought the JV team, whoever it may be, would pull through. The NFC is inferior. Let's go ahead and reformat the playoffs so that perhaps the Colts and Patriots can play each other in the Super Bowl. When the Giants had made their claim to be the NFC's representative, it was almost hysterical to the analysts. The predictions were ludicrous and nearly all of them had the Giants being blown out of the water, and this was a team that had played well against the Patriots in the regular season.
The AFC still may have more contenders, but the NFC has certainly made up quite a bit of ground. The rivalry between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys has always been intense, but now these two teams have proven to possess the amount of talent that when pitted against one another, football fans are in for a championship-caliber bout that matches a showdown between the Patriots and Colts. The NFC East as a whole is now right on par, if not half a step ahead of the AFC South in the debate over football's toughest division. The NFC is clearly catching up, and the remarkable thing about that is, the AFC hasn't gotten any worse.
Looking at the quarterbacks representing teams in each respective conference, the NFC has generally been overshadowed by Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. In fact, the entire league has been out of the conversation when it comes to these two future Hall of Famers. Now, Tony Romo has emerged as a top-flight quarterback. Eli Manning has come into his own and made some brilliant plays down the stretch during the Giants' Super Bowl run. Drew Brees generally puts up big numbers, and if the Saints can get back to winning football games, he will certainly be back on the radar. Even the near-forgotten Donovan McNabb is poised to have a big year, and there remains to be mentioned a few others that could certainly make things interesting in the NFC with a big year, such as Jason Campbell, Matt Hasselback, and Jeff Garcia.
In the AFC, David Garrard has emerged as one who doesn't turn the ball over often and can scramble to make big plays. Derek Anderson came out of nowhere to lead the Browns just shy of a playoff berth, and Big Ben Roethlisberger knows how to win games. Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers certainly have the potential to be top quarterbacks in this league. And let's not forget about Favre, who at 38, seems more and more like a kid every day. What's not to like about the way the 2008 season is shaping up?
Football fans can witness several great match-ups on prime time:
Week 1: Giants at Redskins on Thursday Night, Vikings at Packers on Monday Night Week 2: Steelers at Browns on Sunday Night, Eagles at Cowboys on Monday Night Week 3: Cowboys at Packers on Sunday Night, Jets at Chargers on Monday Night Week 5: Steelers at Jaguars on Sunday Night, Vikings at Saints on Monday Night Week 6: Patriots at Chargers on Sunday Night, Giants at Browns on Monday Night Week 7: Seahawks at Buccaneers on Sunday Night Week 8: Colts at Titans on Monday Night Week 9: Patriots at Colts on Sunday Night Week 10: Giants at Eagles on Sunday Night Week 11: Jets at Patriots on Thursday Night, Cowboys at Redskins on Sunday Night, Browns at Bills on Monday Night Week 12: Colts at Chargers on Sunday Night Week 13: Seahawks at Dallas on Thursday (Thanksgiving) Week 14: Patriots at Seahawks on Sunday Night Week 15: Giants at Cowboys on Sunday Night, Browns at Eagles on Monday Night Week 16: Jaguars at Colts on Thursday Night, Chargers at Buccaneers on Sunday Night, Packers at Bears on Monday Night
That is a lineup loaded with great games on paper. Fifteen games in sixteen weeks feature match-ups between '07 playoff teams on prime time. Several other match-ups include teams favored to make a serious run at the playoffs this year. In my humble opinion this is as good as it gets for NFL football. The year is 2008, and it is a great time to be a fan.