Who would've thought that out of the six teams heading into a bye this week (keeping in mind that four of those teams combined for three division titles, two conference championships, 49 regular season wins, and a Lombardi trophy), a mere 8-10 record would have been produced three weeks into the season between the lot of them? That's an abomination considering the accomplishments listed above. The Colts are 1-2. Seattle is 1-2. They are both currently tied with Miami, who by the way just humbled the Patriots to make the defending AFC champs look very soft at 2-1. The only one of these four '07 playoff teams that is showing any semblance of where they left off last year is the New York Giants. Let's get started:
New York Giants: Not a whole that I'm going to say here. The Giants are 3-0, off to their best start since their third trip to the Super Bowl coming off of the 2000 season. It's hard to believe that the Giants couldn't manage a 3-0 start in any of the following seven seasons, which included four playoff appearances, one division title, and a league championship. Let's keep in mind that the 2000 roster was headed by Kerry Collins, a Michael Strahan in his 20s, Jason Sehorn, and an emerging Tiki Barber. So, while drawing comparisons between the two teams and Giant teams of the past is nice, they don't provide much in terms of substance.
That being said, the tests still lie ahead for the Giants. They get Philly, Pittsburgh, and Dallas consecutively in the coming weeks. And while they are playing Seattle following the bye week, the Giants are historically bad coming out of the bye. And of course, Plaxico Burress has been benched for that game. Fortunately for the G-men, Seattle's lone win has come against the St. Louis Rams.
New England Patriots: Every single team in the league right now has to be fired up to go and play a game in Gillette Stadium after watching the Pats and more importantly, Bill Belichick, shovel down a huge slice of humble pie courtesy of a team that had lost 17 of its last 18 heading into that game. I can't believe that I almost forgot that karma has a tendency to hit in threes. The Super Bowl loss despite being heralded as the best team in the history of the NFL, 18-0, and double-digit favorites was the first strike, and damn was that one hell of a blow in itself.
But low and behold, Bill Belichick would underestimate just how much the karma gods appreciate class in football, and just how much they dislike teams that go for it on fourth down with a lead greater than two scores late in the fourth quarter, but do not have the gut to do it against teams that play them well. Just minutes into the season opener in New England, Bill Belichick would lose the one player with whom he has seen all of his success as a head coach in Tom Brady. Then came the loss to Miami, but it was not just a loss. It was a 25 point blowout, and now the Patriots are en route to missing the playoffs. It turns out that the karma gods love the NFL, and Bill Belichick is painfully learning the repercussions of attempting to spite the league with poor sportsmanship.
Indianapolis Colts: Well, Peyton Manning has apparently decided to feel what it's like to be a human being in this world, first requiring knee surgery and not looking his old self upon his return. Well, almost human, considering that his claim to the second longest active starts streak in the NFL is still in place. The Colts are beaten and bruised, and they need this bye week in a bad way. It's easy to forget that a key reason the Colts passing attack has been so potent in previous years is due to the solid running game that supplements it. Addai and Rhodes have been virtually non-existent, and the blocking has just been awful with all of the injuries on the line. Bob Sanders is out again, and the Colts can't win games with a good deal of their talent on the sidelines.
Miami Dolphins: If one 1-2 team looks to be heading in the right direction, it's the Miami Dolphins. They show that they can play some serious ball when they establish a running game. They did that against the Patriots in week three, and with underrated quarterback Chad Pennington taking the snaps, the 'Phins looked really good. How good will they be? Well, with a division whose only legitimate threat is the Buffalo Bills, the Dolphins could sneak up and grab a wildcard spot. Likely? Probably not. But, despite the fact that a large number of analysts ever so desperately want Favre to succeed in 2008, if there is going to be a story of a veteran quarterback making a comeback in the AFC East, it will be Chad Pennington. Don't sleep on the Dolphins in a conference that has suddenly reversed roles with its NFC counterpart, and will certainly have a 9-7 wilcard team or two.
Seattle Seahawks: Things are looking rough on the preseason NFC West favorite. If I recall correctly, Adam Schein wrote an article something to the tune of how tough Seattle was, as a team that gets overlooked. That was the first sign of troubles to come. This team is in rough shape with injuries, with their only win coming against a hapless St. Louis Rams team that got outscored in the previous two weeks by a whopping 79-16. Great news for Seattle, as they play the defending champion Giants coming off of the bye. The NFC West is looking once again like Kurt Warner's house, and the best part about that is that he is an Arizona Cardinal.
Detroit Lions: Detriot is 0-3, so no, no 10 win guarantees being tossed around by Jon Kitna. Jon Kitna played the karma game last year and lost. The 6-2 Giants met the 6-2 Lions in Detroit. The Lions went on to lose that game 16-10, though Jon Kitna was quick to say that the better team had lost the contest. That's a no-no. Michael Strahan's reaction was priceless though, stating that he felt the Lions were the worst 6-2 team he had ever played. Karma smiled upon the 15 year gap-toothed veteran. The Lions won one game over their next seven. The Giants made history.
Matt Millen's gone, but you can almost hear the Sweet Child O' Mine lyrics ringing in the background. "Where do we go now? Ooh, where do we go?". Millen's gone, but Detroit is still Detroit. Detroit fans deserve a little better. As funny as it may be for Detroit to continue as the perennial laughing stock of the NFL, it's time for them to pass the buck.
First off, I would like to address the Monday Night "thriller" between the Cowboys and Eagles. Whoever buys into the idea that the shootout between these two teams was a showcase of talent is out of his mind. Alex Marvez calls Tony Romo's play heroic, and I'm thinking that he watched a different game. Tony Romo cost his team big on that endzone fumble, and when he had a chance to put the game away, he went three and out. Donovan McNabb simply wanted the game less, fumbling it twice on handoffs and running around like an #### and not making a play when afforded all of the time in the world. On third and long, a veteran quarterback should know that checking it down is a must. To take a sack there was absolutely horrendous.
Where was that mighty pro-bowl supplemented defense of the Dallas Cowboys last night? The Eagles moved the ball effortlessly. Just the same, while the Eagles did a great job stuffing the run, their secondary got beat on the deep ball too many times. The difference in the game was the awful special teams play of the Eagles, as Felix Jones picked them apart to provide beautiful field position time and time again. Overall, a pretty sloppy game, and these two teams better pick up their play or they will lose this week to two very hot teams in Green Bay and Pittsburgh.
KC 10 @ ATL 21: Atlanta will work off a Michael Turner to beat a weak Kansas City team and jump to a misleading 2-1 start.
OAK 7@ BUF 24: Buffalo is looking more and more like the team to beat in the AFC East. The Patriots/Jets game indicated that the Jets just aren't a playoff caliber team. Buffalo is looking like the only real threat out of a sorry division, but that is not to take any credit away from them. Buffalo is 2-0 against '07 playoff squads, a mere two weeks into the season.
CAR 27 @ MIN 17: Carolina has gotten back to their playoff-caliber form, but let's not write off the Vikings just yet. EDIT: Let's in fact write off the Vikings. Gus under center is worse than Jackson under center, and even if he plays well this week (which I wouldn't bank on), he'll fall apart sooner than later. This is a must win for the Vikings, and the coaching staff has decided that they must lose.
ARI 24 @ WAS 28: This Washington picked up some confidence last week, and while Kurt Warner has looked brilliant, his near-perfect game did come against the Miami Dolphins. The 'Skins take this one.
TB 14 @ CHI 20: The Bears showed last week that their win against the Colts was no fluke. Their defense is looking like more than Tampa can handle at the moment. Da Bears.
HOU 14 @ TEN 24: Tennessee will move to 3-0 with Collins under center. Collins can win games, and he looked pretty damn impressive in week two.
MIA 14 @ NE 17: If Miami can finally get their ground game going, it will be a close game. I expect them too, but Matt Cassel will still be a headline next week, with a miraculous 2-0 record as a starting quarterback.
CIN 10 @ NYG 31: The defending Super Bowl champions continue to sharpen their game against inferior opponents, such as the hapless Bengals.
NO 20 @ DEN 28: Denver is the more complete team. Sure, they may have been put into position to win by a bogus call, but they still had to take advantage and execute. I like the call by Shanahan. It was a gutsy move to go for the conversion, and that will pay dividends for him and his team's confidence.
STL 17 @ SEA 28: I cannot decide who is a bigger disappointment between the Rams and the 'Hawks, even though Seattle has the upper hand in this one. The Rams just look embarrassed, and Scott Linehan looks like a joke out there on the sideline. The Seahawks are looking like this year's first legitimate pretender, and the NFC West is no longer soft enough for them to slip into the playoffs.
DET 17 @ SF 24: Detroit is looking a lot like Detroit, and San Fransisco will come out on top in this one. No need for a lengthy explanation regarding why the Detroit Lions are just awful year after year. Though to me, it's more entertaining to have a team like the Lions to depend on to be a sub .500 squad every year. It gives you something to talk about during the week. "Hey Al, what happened to your team on Sunday? Lost to the Detroit Lions, and you said they were going places. Chuckle, chuckle."
JAC 13 @ IND 17: Indy is simply looking like they may have gotten it together, and Jacksonville, while still a good football team, looks like they haven't. Indy keeps within a game of the Titans at week three's conclusion.
CLE 21 @ BAL 20: Cleveland's been a disappointment this year, and injuries are only hurting an already shoddy defense, but they have enough firepower to beat out the Ravens, at the very least.
PIT 27 @ PHI 28: This is going to be a hell o####ame. I'm going back and forth on this one as I write this, but I'm going to have to give it to Philly in Philly. DAL 20 @ GB 31: I'm doing the unthinkable. That is, I'm putting the Cowboys down two scores to the Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay Packers. Who was it that gave the Pack a fighting chance with brilliant play when Brett "The Media's Beloved Jet" Favre was playing pretty damn poorly in the regular season against the Cowboys? Aaron Rodgers. The young quarterback is the real deal, and he faces an overrated defense on Sunday. Wade Phillips is a disgusting excuse for a head coach there in Dallas, judging by his reported comments at halftime and his refusal to acknowledge that the Eagles' offense moved the ball well against his defense ("well" is an understatement).
The NFC East loses it's first game to a non-division opponent, finishing week 3 at 9-3 collectively, and 7-1 against non-division opponents.
NYJ 14 @ SD 35: The San Diego Chargers are coming out fired up and will take out plenty of that aggression on an overrated Jets team. I'm kicking myself for picking the Jets last week, as my initial thoughts this season seemed to be a bit more accurate: the Jets and their savior are overrated. San Diego, after giving the fans a gut-wrenching first two weeks against teams that should not have taken them down to the wire let along beat them, finally gives them reason to cheer.
After a crazy week in the NFL and a dismal week in regards to my picks, I'm looking for a much more sound week. While I did throw down one too many upset specials (by that, I'm referring to my picking of Cleveland over Dallas), the two other teams I picked to upset brought the game down to the final drive, threatening not only in their respective opponent's territory, but threatening with do or die circumstances. Those two teams would be the Dolphins and the Bucs. There were definitely a few games this week that were beyond predictable. The Colts lose at home to the Chicago Bears? The Chargers fall short to the Panthers? And while Buffalo was a reasonable pick to win, I don't think anybody could foresee them putting the lights out on the Seahawks.
One pick I did have going for me was the Green Bay Packers winning at home. Rodgers played just as well as he did at Dallas last year. That was not an upset, but merely just bringing the Minnesota Vikings back down to earth. I will reiterate. The Vikings are reminiscent to the Saints of '07: overhyped and overrated.
This is how the NFL is shaping up for week two:
TEN 20 @ CIN 10: Tennessee is minus Young, but that matters not. Kerry Collins is still a solid QB who can step in and win games. And well, Cincy was looking bad heading into week one, and now they just look awful.
BUF 24 @ JAC 27: One of the tougher games to call, but I'm going with Jacksonville at home over the upstart Bills. The Bills are exciting, but they played a soft-looking Seahawks team. Jacksonville bounces back in a close one. NO 28 @ WAS 17: The Redskins will take a few weeks before anybody gets a read on what will become of them this year. With the way Jim Zorn ran his two minute offense without that critical hurry-up aspect, don't expect a whole lot.
NYG 27 @ STL 7: In reference to a post I made a few weeks ago, the Giants looked very much like the NFL's Joe Frazier in the opener. They didn't continue to batter the Redskins offensively in the second half, but the defense held on eight of eleven in third down situations and looked strong throughout. Expect much of the same this week in a thoroughly one-sided Giants' victory.
GB 35 @ DET 14: The Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay Packers continue to roll.
CHI 14 @ CAR 24: I'm not hopping on the Bears' bandwagon, but Carolina looks to be tough this year, and they will win by two scores. IND 31 @ MIN 17: Indy, despite a poor week one performance, lays it to the Vikings, who unexpectedly start the season two games behind Green Bay after just two weeks.
OAK 14 @ KC 20: A battle between two pretty bad teams, and Oakland is the worse of the two.
ATL 17 @ TB 20: Michael Turner was signed to be the spark plug in this Atlanta offense, and he will make the game interesting. However, the Bucs are the better team all around, and they will bounce back this week.
SF 21 @ SEA 27: Wow. A week ago I wouldn't have imagined this one as a tough pick. Seattle at home, but not by much.
BAL 10 @ HOU 20: Rookie quarterbacks have their ups and downs, and the Texans will be looking to bounce back from the spanking they took last week. Texans even out against the Ravens, and Joe Flacco will get a taste a Mario Williams.
MIA 21 @ ARI 14: Call me crazy but I like what I saw from the Dolphins a week ago (minus the lack of a running game). They had a shot to win the game on the final drive, and that in itself is a good sign. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown will show up big this week, and Pennington will manage a Dolphins victory.
SD 28 @ DEN24: The Chargers lost on the final play to what looks to be a very competent Panthers squad. Denver went out and beat the Raiders senseless, but they are the Oakland Raiders and still a miserable team at that. Still, a good, close game in a Chargers win.
NE 10 @ NYJ 17: The experts are saying not to write the Patriots off, and that makes guys like me look more like an expert every day. As in the preseason, New England just looks like they do not want to be their without Brady on the field. Cassel will soon follow suit once he begins to play decent NFL teams. PIT 28 @ CLE 27: I'm not sure that will be the actual score, but I'm lending emphasis to how close this game will be. Pittsburgh looked great last week and Cleveland looked awful. But in this rivalry, the games will be exciting and down to the wire, and they will still usually end with a Pittsburgh victory.
PHI 24 @ DAL 21: Hands down, the game of the week. I referred to the Giants/Dallas rivalry in another post as similar to that of Ali and Frazier. Philadelphia looks to be emerging as this year's George Foreman in that context, but there will be no rope-a-dope coming from Dallas. Philly wins in Philly fashion, with Donovan McNabb and Westbrook leading the offense and Jim Johnson masterminding this defense. Johnson's disciple Steve Spagnuolo ended the Cowboys' Super Bowl hopes this year, and the guru will pick up where his protege left off.
Seeing as we have more "weekly predictions" posts than anyone could care to count, perhaps we can organize a community based league to compare records for the purpose of bragging rights. We can also get discussions more centralized to keep a broader range of opinions in one place. If anybody is interested, just say so and post your week one winners, so we can get this going before the game on Thursday. All participants must submit this weeks' picks by 4:00 pm EST on Thursday.
Let's kick it off. I will throw an upset special or two into the mix
here, and I look forward to any thoughts an opinions anyone might be
willing to share.
Crack open a cold one, 'coz it's football season, baby.
WAS 14 @ NYG 31: Giants by seventeen here, as the offense will
roll and the defense will look good. The Redskins haven't looked too
solid. If Jason Taylor does not play, the 'Skins D will have a
difficult task ahead of them.
DET 27 @ ATL 13: Detroit will win and Jon Kitna may feel good
enough about it to promise a Super Bowl. But everyone else will know
that the Atlanta Falcons are the Atlanta Falcons, Jon Kitna is Jon
Kitna, and the Lions are still a .500 team at best.
CIN 14 @ BAL 10: Cincy has a receiver to cover for a hurt Chad
Ocho Cinco, but may struggle in the running game. Still, the Ravens have no quarterback. Joe Flacco, did it really come to you already?
SEA 24 @ BUF 20: Seattle is not as tough as they are thought to
be, and the impression of a team that barely edged the Redskins in the
playoffs last year before getting walloped by the Packers remains. They
will still edge the Bills in this one.
NYJ 14@ MIA 17: Everybody will be looking to see Favre light it
up, and while that may happen, I have a feeling Pennington will be the
story of the week after upsetting his former team. He's about as tough
as they come and has more talent (but lacked blocking) than most would
care to realize.
KC 13 @ NE 28: Just because the entire New England team as a
whole looks as though they don't even want to be out there on the
field, my gut tells me to pick against them purely on principle.
Against any halfway decent team, I would. But NE is lucky to have KC as
a get-it-together game. That could still go both ways heading into week
two though, as getting back into the habit of going for it on fourth
downs will hurt them.
TB 28 @ NO 20: Tampa Bay, the more well-rounded team will win
this one. Looking at players who want it bad, one might be inclined to
focus on Shockey. But the moment things don't go Shockey's way, he
forgets how to be a teammate and how to just shut up and play his role.
On the other hand, we have Jeff Garcia, who just a few weeks ago was
more or less told by his organization that he would be Favre's backup.
Garcia is an average quarterback, but he can get fired up and playing
well. With something to prove, Garcia will have a big game.
STL 10 @ PHI 17: Philly has looked good lately, and they will
start the season on a good note against the Rams. The game will be a
lot more one-sided than the final score will suggest.
HOU 14 @ PIT 20: Pittsburgh at home. Pittsburgh at home. The Steelers have tough schedule, but this is a game they will win.
JAC 28 @ TEN 17: Jacksonville is a tough team and can move the
ball on offense, and I don't think Vince Young will be able to exploit
their secondary.
DAL 31 @ CLE 35: Upset special. The Cowboys will be brought down
to earth in week one, losing an offensive shootout with the Browns. The
Browns didn't look great in the preseason, but they are more liable to
show up determined to pull the upset, and they have the guns on offense
to do it.
CAR 17 @ SD 24: San Diego, and it will be their playmakers on
defense that make the difference. Phillip Rivers may struggle a bit,
especially with the impending comeback of Julius Peppers, but he has an
MVP in the backfield to bail him out.
ARI 20 @ SF 10: 'Zona, with Kurt Warner at the helm.
CHI 6 @ IND 24: Not even a question, as the Bears are a team
that have no upset potential in them. They are a mess, two years
removed from the Super Bowl, playing the very team that beat them up
pretty good.
MIN 14 @ GB 20: Minnesota are similar to the Saints of '07:
overhyped and overrated. Green Bay, a very talented team before even
considering the quarterback position, is underrated. Rodgers is the
right guy for them to have, as he is young enough to withstand the
temperatures at Lambeau in January, something Favre apparently could
not do.
DEN 21 @ OAK 7: The Raiders still aren't close yet. Another year of growing pains for Oakland fans.
Is it me, or does it seem that the NFL as a whole is more exciting to watch than in recent years? Sure, the regular season has yet to get underway, but it seems that we have more potential Super Bowl contenders and teams on the rise than we could care to count right now. Hell, even the preseason has been entertaining, and as a football fan, I feel as though there may not be a better time to be one. And while the Favre drama may have been a bit overdone during the offseason and into training camp, for a die-hard, it certainly took some of the pain away from not being able to catch a game of football at least twice a week.
Starting with the comparisons between the AFC and NFC, in recent years, the AFC has been unquestionably the better conference. The Patriots and the Colts had been considered a league of their own, and many went as far to say that their classic AFC championship game match-ups may very well have been the real "Super Bowl". Even right up until Super Bowl XLII had reached it's conclusion, the expectations of the NFC representative were limited.
Even before the Giants had made their postseason run, it seemed as though the so-called experts were merely picking which NFC team would make the game the most interesting, as the Patriots capped off their glorious 19-0 run that was never to be. Some favored Dallas, whose offense could at the very least make the game a high scoring affair. Others seemed to favor Green Bay for the irresistible headline Brady versus the Old Gunslinger Brett Favre would provide. But not many thought the JV team, whoever it may be, would pull through. The NFC is inferior. Let's go ahead and reformat the playoffs so that perhaps the Colts and Patriots can play each other in the Super Bowl. When the Giants had made their claim to be the NFC's representative, it was almost hysterical to the analysts. The predictions were ludicrous and nearly all of them had the Giants being blown out of the water, and this was a team that had played well against the Patriots in the regular season.
The AFC still may have more contenders, but the NFC has certainly made up quite a bit of ground. The rivalry between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys has always been intense, but now these two teams have proven to possess the amount of talent that when pitted against one another, football fans are in for a championship-caliber bout that matches a showdown between the Patriots and Colts. The NFC East as a whole is now right on par, if not half a step ahead of the AFC South in the debate over football's toughest division. The NFC is clearly catching up, and the remarkable thing about that is, the AFC hasn't gotten any worse.
Looking at the quarterbacks representing teams in each respective conference, the NFC has generally been overshadowed by Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. In fact, the entire league has been out of the conversation when it comes to these two future Hall of Famers. Now, Tony Romo has emerged as a top-flight quarterback. Eli Manning has come into his own and made some brilliant plays down the stretch during the Giants' Super Bowl run. Drew Brees generally puts up big numbers, and if the Saints can get back to winning football games, he will certainly be back on the radar. Even the near-forgotten Donovan McNabb is poised to have a big year, and there remains to be mentioned a few others that could certainly make things interesting in the NFC with a big year, such as Jason Campbell, Matt Hasselback, and Jeff Garcia.
In the AFC, David Garrard has emerged as one who doesn't turn the ball over often and can scramble to make big plays. Derek Anderson came out of nowhere to lead the Browns just shy of a playoff berth, and Big Ben Roethlisberger knows how to win games. Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers certainly have the potential to be top quarterbacks in this league. And let's not forget about Favre, who at 38, seems more and more like a kid every day. What's not to like about the way the 2008 season is shaping up?
Football fans can witness several great match-ups on prime time:
Week 1: Giants at Redskins on Thursday Night, Vikings at Packers on Monday Night Week 2: Steelers at Browns on Sunday Night, Eagles at Cowboys on Monday Night Week 3: Cowboys at Packers on Sunday Night, Jets at Chargers on Monday Night Week 5: Steelers at Jaguars on Sunday Night, Vikings at Saints on Monday Night Week 6: Patriots at Chargers on Sunday Night, Giants at Browns on Monday Night Week 7: Seahawks at Buccaneers on Sunday Night Week 8: Colts at Titans on Monday Night Week 9: Patriots at Colts on Sunday Night Week 10: Giants at Eagles on Sunday Night Week 11: Jets at Patriots on Thursday Night, Cowboys at Redskins on Sunday Night, Browns at Bills on Monday Night Week 12: Colts at Chargers on Sunday Night Week 13: Seahawks at Dallas on Thursday (Thanksgiving) Week 14: Patriots at Seahawks on Sunday Night Week 15: Giants at Cowboys on Sunday Night, Browns at Eagles on Monday Night Week 16: Jaguars at Colts on Thursday Night, Chargers at Buccaneers on Sunday Night, Packers at Bears on Monday Night
That is a lineup loaded with great games on paper. Fifteen games in sixteen weeks feature match-ups between '07 playoff teams on prime time. Several other match-ups include teams favored to make a serious run at the playoffs this year. In my humble opinion this is as good as it gets for NFL football. The year is 2008, and it is a great time to be a fan.