Not long ago, I wrote about how the NFC West gets little credit and has been unfairly tabbed as the worst division in football.

*crunch, crunch*

That's me eating some rather well-done crow, folks.

The division leader, Arizona, is 3-2 overall, and 2-2 outside of the division (wins against MIA & BUF, losses to WAS & NYJ).  The Cards' performance in week 5 at home against the surging Buffalo Billas was impressive, and their 31-10 victory over Miami in week 2 now looks to be a bit bigger than previously thought due to how well the Dolphins have been playing the past two weeks.  However, the loss to the Jets, caused primarily by Brett Favre's record-setting 6 TD performance, was a horrendous defensive display.  Losing to the Redskins by a touchdown, however, now seems like a valiant effort against a very solid team.  By and large, considering only on-field performance thus far in 2008, Arizona is the class of the NFC West.  Yep, THAT Arizona.

In 2nd place, sitting at 2-3 currently, is San Francisco.  They've won on the road against Seattle (33-30 in a week 2 OT matchup) and at home against the hapless Detroit lions.  But, losses to Arizona, New Orleans and New England have stymied this club's interest in returning to the postseason.  It's not that they've lost ugly, because all three of their losses have come to decent football teams.  But, they haven't won convincingly against anyone worth mentioning (no, the OT win in Seattle doesn't count, considering Seattle is 1-3 after their week 5 drubbing at the hands of the Giants).  A 31-13 home win over the Lions shouldn't impress anyone.  Is this team better than in 2007?  Yes.  Is it better than in 2006?  Probably not, and a 7-9 or 8-8 record should be considered a well-placed stepping stone on their path back to respectability.

Seattle, 1-3 after a horrendous 44-6 road loss to the New York Giants, is the defending division champion... as if that actually meant anything nowadays.  In week one, Seattle managed to post a 34-10 loss in Buffalo.  Following that was a 3-point OT loss at home to division rival San Francisco, a loss that embarrassed the franchise after sweeping the 49ers three times in the past 4 seasons.  At 0-2 and facing their worst start in what seemed like an eternity, the Seahawks smothered the Rams with a solid running game en route to a convincing 37-13 home victory.  Then came the Giants, and ohhh it was ugly.  To date, removing Seattle's lone win of the season against one of the three worst NFL teams this season, Seattle has been outscored 111-46 in their three losses.  Ouch.  Now remove the home loss to the 49ers (33-30 in OT), and Seattle has been outscored by New York teams 78-16 in two games.

Now we get to St. Louis, which recently fired coach Scott Linehan.  At 0-4 after their bye week, the Rams are in horrible shape.  Losing weekly by an average score of 36.8-10.8, the Rams are proving how bad they can really be.  0-1 in the division, 0-3 outside of it.  Yikes.  Detroit might be worse, but not by much.  Considering they shelled out half the farm to make Steven Jackson happy and he's provided them with 269 rushing yards and one score in their four losses, things are looking as bleak as ever for the Rams.

So, to sum up, the NFC West is 6-12 overall, and 3-9 outside of the division.

Bad.

With a little more information now than in my previous blog post on this very topic, I have altered a few things in the predictions for the NFC West in the 2008 NFL season.  Some things, however, have not changed:

1 - The Seattle Seahawks (11-5) will win the division for the fifth straight season, an accomplishment only the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts can also currently claim

2 - The Arizona Cardinals (8-8 or 9-7) will finish 2nd in the NFC West

3 - The St. Louis Rams (6-10) are awful on the defensive side of the ball, perhaps the worst all-around defense in the NFC

4 - The San Francisco 49ers (6-10) are awful on BOTH sides of the ball

Under normal circumstances, any time a team makes a significant change at the quarterback position, one must re-review the team's personnel to see if a significant change in overall team performance will take place.

ARI: Three months ago, Im picked Arizona and the New Orleans Saints as my NFC sleeper picks.  As things stand right now, Matt Leinart is supposed to be the future of the Cardinals' offense.  Unfortunately for him, his "backup" is former Super Bowl MVP Kurt Warner, he of the leader of the "Greatest Show On Turf".  Now that Warner has been named the starter, I think 9-7 is a fair and solid prediction for the Cardinals in 2008.  8-8 seems a little low for this club without the inexperienced Leinart at QB, and Warner brings a toughness and grit to the offense.  Anquan Boldin's little contract dispute likely won't be much of a distraction for the team, as he and Larry Fitzgerald pair up to make perhaps the most explosive and potent WR duo in the NFC.  Defensively, Arizona looks pretty good, but they still need to be able to keep the offense going so the defensive starters can get better rest.  This team is close, but not quite there yet.  2009 might be their year to shine, however Matt Leinart really needs to step up and show why he was drafted by the Cardinals.  PREDICTION: 9-7, 2nd in NFC West, no playoffs

STL: Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson are healthy, and that will be a huge plus for this franchise that managed a 3-13 record in 2007.  Will their health, however, be enough to overcome a porous defense?  Well, somewhat, but not enough so as to make them a legitimate postseason sleeper or contender.  Isaac Bruce is gone, Torry Holt has lost a half-step, and Bulger is coming off a very difficult season that saw him miss time during two separate stints.  Bulger wasn't bad - his 70.3 rating was the lowest in his six-season career - but he offered little vision for the future when he was healthy.  For him to return to his 2004-2006 form, Jackson must remain healthy, the offensive line must continue to improve (Bulger was sacked 37 times in just 11 games in 2007), and Drew Bennett and Dane Looker must remain healthy and productive.  Defensively, this franchise is in deep trouble - no one on the depth chart strikes fear into anyone, and the defense has been largely ignored for what seems like an eternity.  Pairing this team's offensive capabilities with a better defense creates a much better club overall.  Sadly, this isn't fantasy football.  PREDICTION: 6-10, 3rd in NFC West, no playoffs

SF: 49ers coaches have found themselves in a tough spot: start the ever-unimpressive Alex Smith, the man with the $50 million contract, or... start J.T. O'Sullivan, Jon Kitna's former Detroit Lions backup that came over along with new Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz?  Martz has been behind O'Sullivan from day one, so if Smith feels slighted, he should - Head Coach Mike Nolan never went to bat for the man he hand-picked in the 2005 draft this offseason or training camp.  Maybe Nolan is feeling the pressure and wants to distance himself from the young man?  The 49ers ground game again figures to be solid, more reminiscent of the 2006 campaign.  Frank Gore is the starter, and DeShaun Foster (from Carolina) the new backup, and they form a good 1-2 punch out of the backfield.  This is Vernon Davis' year to put up or shut up, and the Niners are chock full of inexperienced wideouts with hopes of glory and an aging Isaac Bruce with the dream of one last push into the playoffs.  Unfortunately for them, it is not to be in 2008, as the defensive unit - as good as they can be - cannot make up for an ex-NFL Europe quarterback (O'Sullivan), an offensive coordinator (Martz) that ruined the St. Louis Rams and was well on his way in helping to further ruin the Detroit Lions before he bolted for the Bay Area.  PREDICTION: 6-10, 4th in NFC West, no playoffs

SEA: Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett were brought in to shore up the rushing attack, and as things are going thus far in the preseason, rookie Justin Forcett (California) is likely to beat out Duckett for playing time, perhaps even a roster spot.  Jones has been okay in the preseason, Duckett not good, and Forcett a firecracker.  But, the running game looks to hinge on one very unnoticed player on Seattle's roster: Maurice Morris.  Morris looks to have bulked up this past offseason, and he is hitting holes with authority and a strong stride - he may have a bit of a chip on his shoulder due to Jones and Duckett being signed to run the ball and never really being considered for full-time duties.  Even without former NFL MVP (2005) Shaun Alexander, Seattle still managed to lead all of their divisional opponents in rushing yards.  An improved running game will take a lot of pressure off Matt Hasselbeck, and he will be thankful for it, as Bobby Engram (94 receptions in 2007) is likely out until after the bye week (week 4) and Deion Branch (49 receptions in 2007) is trying to quickly return form offseason knee surgery.  The wildcard for the Seahawks is Nate Burleson, who picked up 50 catches and 9 touchdowns in 2007 after being thrust into a starting role when Branch went down with his injury (one of many).  Defensively, Seattle returns 10 of 11 starters from 2007.  The linebacking corps is top-three in the NFL, the secondary is energetic and provides the 2nd-best pass defense in the NFC, and the front line was bolstered with the draft-day additions of Red Bryant (Texas A&M) and Lawrence Jackson (USC).  PREDICTION: 11-5, NFC West Division Champions

... why the NFL Should Tackle Statistical Silliness!!!

Middle linebacker Patrick Willis of the San Francisco 49ers was the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007. If you trust his statistics, he should have been the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year as well. Maybe even the NFL Defensive Player of the Decade.

Willis was credited with 226 tackles by the 49ers – a staggering 42 more than the league's next most prolific tackler, Ray Lewis of the Baltimore Ravens.

Willis collected 117 more tackles than the starting NFC middle linebacker in the Pro Bowl (Lofa Tatupu, Seattle Seahawks) and 99 more than the AFC starter (Demeco Ryans, Houston Texans). Was Willis that much more active, that much more proficient than any other defensive player in the NFL?

But I don't trust the statistics – not tackle stats, anyway.

Each NFL team employs a stat crew for its home games. That crew's final statistics are deemed official by the league office: yardage for rushing, passing, receiving and various kick returns plus field goal and punting distances, sacks, interceptions, touchdowns ...

But 28 of the 32 NFL teams do not acknowledge the press box tackle stats as official. On the Monday following games, NFL defensive coaching staffs break down the films on their own and award a new set of tackle numbers. Those are listed by each team as its "official" tackle count.

Willis was credited with 174 tackles by NFL stat crews in 2007. Upon further review, the San Francisco coaches gave him credit for 52 more tackles, bumping his "official" count to 226. How is it possible for stat crews league-wide to miss 52 tackles by Willis? That's a 23 percent increase in his tackle count. That's like the New England offensive staff studying weekly game tapes and uncovering 1,400 passing yards that stat crews missed in Tom Brady's 2007 season.

New England finished fourth in the NFL in defense and was one of only two teams that did not credit a player with 100 tackles. Miami was the other. Indianapolis finished one rung ahead of the Patriots on defense at third – but had a league-high five players with 100-plus tackles. The Indy defense was on the field for 980 snaps last season. But there were no tackles on 199 of those plays because they were either incomplete passes, interceptions or offensive touchdowns. That left 781 defensive snaps that involved a tackle – and the Colts' coaching staff awarded a league-high 1,416 tackles. That's an average of 1.81 tackles per play. The Indianapolis staff awarded 891 "solo" tackles in those 781 plays. Figure that one out.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished second in the NFL in defense, were even more generous. Their coaches awarded 1,385 tackles in 755 plays, an average of 1.83 tackles per play. The 49ers averaged 1.63 tackles per play.

I surveyed a handful of NFL head coaches a few years back, asking them what they considered a legitimate tackle average. The consensus was 1.44 tackles per play. I still consider that a bit high. I'm of the belief 1.3 tackles per play is about right. Nonetheless, 15 teams were at or below the 1.44 figure in 2007.

The four teams that count the press-box tackle stats as official are Houston, Miami, Oakland and Seattle. All finished in the league's bottom six in tackles per play. Ryan's Houston defense averaged 1.23 tackles per play, and Tatupu's Seattle defense averaged 1.13.

The first time I put together a league-wide tackle chart in 1992, there were three teams that averaged better than two tackles per play. That was ridiculous, not to mention impossible. So there has been slight improvement from one decade to the next.

Here's my solution: The NFL office should hire a retired defensive coach, bring him to New York on Sunday and give him three days to break down the tape for all 16 games. Let him credit all the tackles for all the games. One set of eyes would foster a league-wide consistency. It would also eliminate any and all bias – and padding – by stat crews and or coaching staffs.

I doubt you'd see any more 200-tackle seasons. And I'd start accepting tackle statistics as legit.

Here's the NFC West tackle chart for 2007. The first column is the number of defensive snaps by each team. Now subtract the non-tackle plays (incompletions, interceptions and offensive touchdowns) in the second column, producing the number of actual tackle plays (third column). Now divide the number of credited tackles (fourth column) by the number of actual tackle plays (third column). That produces an average number of tackles per play by a team (fifth column).

 Team / Plays / Non-T / T-plays / Tackles / Avg.

San Francisco / 1,078 / 231 / 847 / 1,381 / 1.63

St. Louis / 999 / 246 / 753 / 1,096 / 1.45

Arizona / 1,013 / 248 / 765 / 1,036 / 1.35

p-Seattle / 1,035 / 266 / 769 / 872 / 1.13

(p-Press box statistics considered official)

How did San Francisco AVERAGE an entire half-tackle more per tackle play than Seattle?  Is that even statistically feasible?

I think not, and it's about the time the rest of the NFL woke up to this kind of statistical padding and shenanigans.

Below is a comparison of all the NFC West quarterbacks with their most recent full season (half the games or more) of service in parentheses.

ARI - Matt Leinart (2006): 214/377, 56.8% COMP, 2,547 YDS, 11/12 TD/INT, 74.0 RTG

STL - Marc Bulger (2007): 221/378, 58.5% COMP, 2,392 YDS, 11/15 TD/INT, 70.3 RTG

SF - Alex Smith (2006): 257/442, 58.1% COMP, 2,890 YDS,16/16 TD/INT, 74.8 RTG

SEA - Matt Hasselbeck (2007): 352/562, 62.6% COMP, 3,966 YDS, 28/12 TD/INT, 91.4 RTG

It's not difficult at all to see who the superior team leader is - Hasselbeck.  He led all NFC West quarterbacks in every meaningful offensive category.

As for overall team offensive production, let's take a quick peek at how things went in 2007-08, shall we?...

ARI - 5,505 TOT YDS (1,440 RUSH/4,065 PASS), 25.3 PPG

STL - 4,760 TOT YDS (1,527 RUSH/3,233 PASS), 16.4 PPG

SF - 3,797 TOT YDS (1,477 RUSH/2,320 PASS), 13.7 PPG

SEA - 5,583 TOT YDS (1,619 RUSH/3,964 PASS), 24.6 PPG

Even without 2005 NFL MVP Shaun Alexander, Seattle still led the NFC West in total offensive yards, while also scoring just 11 total points fewer than Arizona and its heralded offense.  Seattle's rushing game was SO poor in 2007-08 that they led the NFC West in team rushing yards.

Defensively, here is how the NFC West shakes down...

ARI - 5,283 TOT YDS (1,567 RUSH/3,716 PASS), 24.9 PPG

STL - 5,457 TOT YDS (1,844 RUSH/3,613 PASS), 27.4 PPG

SF - 5,539 TOT YDS (1,896 RUSH/3.643 PASS), 22.8 PPG

SEA - 5,149 TOT YDS (1.644 RUSH/3,505 PASS), 18.2 PPG

Again, Seattle led the NFC West in nearly every major defensive statistical category, the lone exception being rushing yards allowed (ARI - 1,567; SEA - 1,644).  Somehow, Seattle (10-6 in 2007-08) managed to allow the fewest passing yards in the division - how is this even remotely possible, considering they were the only playoff team from the NFC West and outscored their opponents by an average of 6.4 points per game?  Go figure!

Seattle was +10 in turnover margin, good for 2nd in the NFC behind only Dallas (+15).  The rest of the NFC West combined for a -29 mark, with the 49ers leading the charge in the NFC at -12.

Seattle marched for 323 1st downs, again leading their division in yet ANOTHER statistical category.  Arizona picked up 308 total 1st downs, the Rams marked 281, and the lowly 49ers managed just 218 total sets of chains moved.

The Rams (81) led the NFC West with 81 converted third downs, with Arizona and Seattle tying for 2nd with 75 each.  San Francisco picked up 69 third down conversions.  None of the NFC West teams converted a particularly good percentage of their 3rd down opportunities, however, with Arizona leading the charge with 36.9% converted, good for 8th in the NFC.

Seattle led the NFC in fewest penalties against with just 59 for 428 yards.  Saint Louis had 94 penalties for 794 yards, the Niners 97 for 702 yards, and the Cardinals were the most-penalized NFC team with 137 penalties for 1,128 yards.

Seattle again led their division by allowing just 37.9% of their opponents' third down conversion attempts; the Rams allowed 38.8%, the Cardinals allowed 40.1%, and the 49ers allowed 40.2%.

Only Tampa Bay (258) allowed fewer total first downs than Seattle (278) in the NFC.  Arizona allowed a respectable 298, but San Francisco (308) and Saint Louis (316) were near the bottom in that category.

The Seahawks' defense led the NFC West again with 45 sacks for 303 yards.  Arizona picked up 36 sacks for 242 yards, the Niners 31 for 183 yards, and the Rams 31 for 234 yards.

Seattle led the NFC with 20 interceptions, and the Cardinals and Rams each picked up 18.  The 49ers managed just 12, good for 2nd-fewest in the NFC.  Ahhh, that prime-time San Francisco defense!

In summation, it's not at all difficult to see which NFC West team was dominant and which ones were inferior in 2007-08.  I challenge any division opponents' fans to come up with reasons why their team will be improved in 2008-09 and challenge the Seattle Seahawks for dominance in the NFC West.

As things stand right now, no team in the NFC West improved that much to begin with from last season, so it only stands to reason that Seattle will once again be the dominant force in the division.

Disagree?  Great, say so... then have the balls to say WHY.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks (10-6 in 2007-08, NFC West Champions): Seattle returns at least 10 of 11 defensive starters from a squad that improved in every aspect over 2006-07.  Kelly Jennings, a former 1st round pick, must continue his development and become a little more conservative in his coverage.  LeRoy Hill, Julian Peterson, and Lofa Tatupu comprise the best under-30 linebacking corps in the NFL.  Offensively, Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett look to improve the running game from a dismal display last season.  While they are not the long-term answer to the issue, their additions will prive to be an improvement.  Walter Jones is a Pro-Bowl LT mainstay, and Mike Wahle should assist in providing better left-side consistency, as Rob Sims moves back to the weak side where he started his career and where he belongs.  Bobby Engram, although 35, is coming off his best professional season.  He wants a contract extension, naturally, and has been fussing over that issue for the better part of two months.  But, don't expect that to be a distraction to this offense, as Nate Burleson finally gets a chance to consistently start and Mike Homgren scours the playbook for ways to insert the dynamic and muti-talented Seneca Wallace.

2008-09 Team MVP: Matt Hasselbeck (QB)

2008-09 Most-Improved Player: Kelly Jennings (CB)

2008-09 Predicted Record: 11-5, NFC West Champions

Saint Loius Rams (3-13 in 2007-08, 4th Place in NFC West): The Rams were absolutely decimated on offense by injuries to key performers Marc Bulger and Stephen Jackson.  Both are 100% going into their team's 2008 Training Camp, and both figure to be prominent figures in a good offense in the upcoming campaign.  Defensively, however, the Rams played more like the Lambs in 2007-08, surrendering the second-most points (438) in the NFC (Detroit led the effort, giving up 444), and they improved only slightly from that.  It remains to be seen if there is an NFL that cannot figure out a way to score 30 points against the Rams' defense, which is flatly horrible.

2008-09 Team MVP: Stephen Jackson (RB)

2008-09 Most Improved Player: Dane Looker (WR)

2008-09 Predicted Record: 8-8, tied for 2nd in NFC West

Arizona Cardinals (8-8 in 2007-08, 2nd in NFC West): Arizona has the tools offensively to have a startling passing attack - Matt Leinart is a cerebral quarterback, and Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are the most dynamic and exciting 1-2 wideout pair in the NFC.  After that trio of performers, however, the offense is just ordinary.  Edgerrin James returns for his 10th NFL season (third in the Arizona desert) with his most productive seasons obviously behind him.  The offensive line is questionable, at best, with Mike Gandy and Reggie Wells on the left side - neither one is particularly skilled.  Leinart, however, must stay healthy for the offense to produce fewer 3-and-outs than last season, when the usually stout Cardinals defense allowed 399 points, 4rd most in the NFC.  Inuries bugged the Cards all season, and with Kurt Warner at the helm, they still managed 8 wins, albeit in a rather weak division.

2008-09 Team MVP: Larry Fitzgerald (WR)

2008-09 Most Improved Player: Leonard Pope (TE)

2008-09 Predicted record: 8-8, tied for 2nd in NFC West

San Francisco 49ers (5-11 in 2007-08, 3rd in NFC West): Alex Smith, Alex Smith, Alex Smith.  Where he goes, so go the Niners.  Mike Martz brings his wacky offensive scheming to the Bay Area, where he figures to improve Smith's ability to throw to his own guys.  Frank Gore, dinged up last season, looks to regain his 2006-07 form when he rushed for nearly 1,700 yards.  The addition of Isaac Bruce to the WR corps may actually prove to be a savvy choice, as his experience and knowledge of Martz' offense will only help Arnaz Battle and Bryant Johnson improve.  However, it couldn't get much worse for the 49ers' offense, which managed a measly and NFL-worst 219 points in 2007-08... that's just 13.7 points per game, a number that will improve with Martz and Bruce coming aboard.  The defense, however, looks to continue its improvement, as Patrick Willis and Brandon Moore execute the interior linebacking duties in a 3-4 defense.  Running against this team will prove to be at least somewhat difficult at times, but the defensive backfield has the personnel to give passers fits, with Walt Harris and Nate Clements anchoring the corner positions.  however, unless the offense pulls off a complete 180-degree turn from the past year, the defense will continue to see a good majority of the 60 minutes on the field.

2008-09 Team MVP: Frank Gore (RB)

2008-09 Most Improved Player: Vernon Davis (TE)

2008-09 Predicted Record: 6-10, 4th in NFC West