With a little more information now than in my previous blog post on this very topic, I have altered a few things in the predictions for the NFC West in the 2008 NFL season. Some things, however, have not changed:
1 - The Seattle Seahawks (11-5) will win the division for the fifth straight season, an accomplishment only the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts can also currently claim
2 - The Arizona Cardinals (8-8 or 9-7) will finish 2nd in the NFC West
3 - The St. Louis Rams (6-10) are awful on the defensive side of the ball, perhaps the worst all-around defense in the NFC
4 - The San Francisco 49ers (6-10) are awful on BOTH sides of the ball
Under normal circumstances, any time a team makes a significant change at the quarterback position, one must re-review the team's personnel to see if a significant change in overall team performance will take place.
ARI: Three months ago, Im picked Arizona and the New Orleans Saints as my NFC sleeper picks. As things stand right now, Matt Leinart is supposed to be the future of the Cardinals' offense. Unfortunately for him, his "backup" is former Super Bowl MVP Kurt Warner, he of the leader of the "Greatest Show On Turf". Now that Warner has been named the starter, I think 9-7 is a fair and solid prediction for the Cardinals in 2008. 8-8 seems a little low for this club without the inexperienced Leinart at QB, and Warner brings a toughness and grit to the offense. Anquan Boldin's little contract dispute likely won't be much of a distraction for the team, as he and Larry Fitzgerald pair up to make perhaps the most explosive and potent WR duo in the NFC. Defensively, Arizona looks pretty good, but they still need to be able to keep the offense going so the defensive starters can get better rest. This team is close, but not quite there yet. 2009 might be their year to shine, however Matt Leinart really needs to step up and show why he was drafted by the Cardinals. PREDICTION: 9-7, 2nd in NFC West, no playoffs
STL: Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson are healthy, and that will be a huge plus for this franchise that managed a 3-13 record in 2007. Will their health, however, be enough to overcome a porous defense? Well, somewhat, but not enough so as to make them a legitimate postseason sleeper or contender. Isaac Bruce is gone, Torry Holt has lost a half-step, and Bulger is coming off a very difficult season that saw him miss time during two separate stints. Bulger wasn't bad - his 70.3 rating was the lowest in his six-season career - but he offered little vision for the future when he was healthy. For him to return to his 2004-2006 form, Jackson must remain healthy, the offensive line must continue to improve (Bulger was sacked 37 times in just 11 games in 2007), and Drew Bennett and Dane Looker must remain healthy and productive. Defensively, this franchise is in deep trouble - no one on the depth chart strikes fear into anyone, and the defense has been largely ignored for what seems like an eternity. Pairing this team's offensive capabilities with a better defense creates a much better club overall. Sadly, this isn't fantasy football. PREDICTION: 6-10, 3rd in NFC West, no playoffs
SF: 49ers coaches have found themselves in a tough spot: start the ever-unimpressive Alex Smith, the man with the $50 million contract, or... start J.T. O'Sullivan, Jon Kitna's former Detroit Lions backup that came over along with new Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz? Martz has been behind O'Sullivan from day one, so if Smith feels slighted, he should - Head Coach Mike Nolan never went to bat for the man he hand-picked in the 2005 draft this offseason or training camp. Maybe Nolan is feeling the pressure and wants to distance himself from the young man? The 49ers ground game again figures to be solid, more reminiscent of the 2006 campaign. Frank Gore is the starter, and DeShaun Foster (from Carolina) the new backup, and they form a good 1-2 punch out of the backfield. This is Vernon Davis' year to put up or shut up, and the Niners are chock full of inexperienced wideouts with hopes of glory and an aging Isaac Bruce with the dream of one last push into the playoffs. Unfortunately for them, it is not to be in 2008, as the defensive unit - as good as they can be - cannot make up for an ex-NFL Europe quarterback (O'Sullivan), an offensive coordinator (Martz) that ruined the St. Louis Rams and was well on his way in helping to further ruin the Detroit Lions before he bolted for the Bay Area. PREDICTION: 6-10, 4th in NFC West, no playoffs
SEA: Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett were brought in to shore up the rushing attack, and as things are going thus far in the preseason, rookie Justin Forcett (California) is likely to beat out Duckett for playing time, perhaps even a roster spot. Jones has been okay in the preseason, Duckett not good, and Forcett a firecracker. But, the running game looks to hinge on one very unnoticed player on Seattle's roster: Maurice Morris. Morris looks to have bulked up this past offseason, and he is hitting holes with authority and a strong stride - he may have a bit of a chip on his shoulder due to Jones and Duckett being signed to run the ball and never really being considered for full-time duties. Even without former NFL MVP (2005) Shaun Alexander, Seattle still managed to lead all of their divisional opponents in rushing yards. An improved running game will take a lot of pressure off Matt Hasselbeck, and he will be thankful for it, as Bobby Engram (94 receptions in 2007) is likely out until after the bye week (week 4) and Deion Branch (49 receptions in 2007) is trying to quickly return form offseason knee surgery. The wildcard for the Seahawks is Nate Burleson, who picked up 50 catches and 9 touchdowns in 2007 after being thrust into a starting role when Branch went down with his injury (one of many). Defensively, Seattle returns 10 of 11 starters from 2007. The linebacking corps is top-three in the NFL, the secondary is energetic and provides the 2nd-best pass defense in the NFC, and the front line was bolstered with the draft-day additions of Red Bryant (Texas A&M) and Lawrence Jackson (USC). PREDICTION: 11-5, NFC West Division Champions
Duckett is a complete waste of time and speaking of waste he had the talent to be pretty good, even another "Bus" honestly. Lacks motivation.
Got a taste of Forsett? He'll be their complement back for years. Can't see him ever leading the team in rushing, but he is going to have a solid career. Not much tread on his tires playing behind #### at Cal.
O-Line for me is still the #1 concern with WRs close behind. Hasselbeck is the most underappreciated QB possibly in NFL history. I'm not even kidding. Who else throws for almost 4,000 yards with a freaking possession receiver as the only one over 50 receptions or 700 yards? Losing that guy (Engram) will be tough. I don't know what the B brothers can do at this point or who can step up although I can't doubt Hasselbeck too much.
Arizona always disappoints. Warner can't play 16 which is why they drafted Leinart. Easy to get seduced by doubling his game 9-16 stats for them (4,724 yards 42 TD) but that was against bad teams (SF, ATL, STL) or ones who had quit (CIN, NO) mostly.
I'm not 100% sold on dropping Duckett, and as much as I like what I have seen from Forcett, I'm not 100% sold on him being the complement back to the new Jones/Morris tandem in the backfield. I like his energy and the shiftiness he brings to the equation, though, and I agree that he could have a good career as a backup/motion back.
Matt Hasselbeck is underappreciated, but more than any other quarterback in NFL history? In my opinion, that title goes to either Warren Moon or Chris Chandler. The improved running game will give him some leverage, and we will likely see Holmgren calling a very different set of plays this season compared to 2006 or 2007.
The O-line looks 100% better than last year - Sims at RG and Wahle at LG really makes a big difference and it allows the tight ends to break off into their short routes more often.
Arizona's biggest issue is depth at the skill positions - they have virtually none, really. Helthy, they are a good squad, but injuries always take their toll in a 16-game NFL season.
Not bad of a dialogue for each team, however I have a feeling (confident) that the Rams defense will surprise many out there. That's what I love about others opinions about the Rams. This will be Jim Haslett's 3rd year, he has a bunch of talent on the line, lb's and secondary with some vets still around. Keep your eyes out, it may not happen in the first 2 months, check it out, brutal schedule. But if they can get through and hold PHI,DAL,SEA,and others to low scores you'll know why.
A good start would be spelling Forsett's name correctly! I just think Duckett is listless. So many chances.
Moon is in the HOF! How can he not be appreciated? He never took a team to the Super Bowl unless I'm having a brain lock. CFL success is great, but he had enough opportunities in the NFL to get there which Hasselbeck has. Chandler too but...
Seriously? Do you realize he had only ONE season with over 2,900 yards passing? Yep, the 1998 Super Bowl run. He NEVER played 16 gaes in a season. His greatest accomplishment is longevity, but you can look at seasons 89-91, 93, 2004 when he had
Who is going to pick up Shaun Alexander? Anyone ... ? Beuller ... ?
Sad, seems like yesterday he was replacing Watters.
I'm surprised the Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Titans, Chargers, Broncos, Lions, Bucs or 49ers don't look at him as a backup. Really amazing to see SF have basically no RBs this past week yet not add him. At this point what are his options? He can't start, might as well catch on with one of these teams at a lower salary hoping to get ~100 carries.
As far as Shaun Alexander goes, his situation baffles me.
In my opinion, he has something to offer a franchise in need, and although he had his productivity issues in Seattle the past two seasons (1,880 yards in 2005; just over 1,600 in 2006 & 2007), he's only 30 and might be a good fit for a team like Tampa Bay now that they've placed Cadillac Williams on the PUP-list.
It's sad to see a former NFL MVP turn a complete 180 and go from being a stud to a dud. I hope he catches on somewhere and can figure out a way to get to the 11,000 or 12,000 career yards mark, because he would then have a chance at the HOF.
this dude is funny.if u think 9ers are horrible on both sides of the ball u dont watch them. u just say the genaric stuff people say when they have no clue.
rmac - Yeah exactly. I guess the Bucs are happy with Graham (new deal they gave him), but at some point they have to sweat Cadillac being a bust (health). Same for Dolphins with Ronnie Brown who Chris Mortensen almost said they thought of cutting.
Alexander just doesn't run hard enough, block well enough or of course play on special teams. It's the crappy economics of the league which is why I wish we had another league where some of these players could shine in their twilight while developing younger players at the same time.
Well I have to say, Duckett looked a little bit revitalized against Oakland's 2nd/3rd/4th/whatever string (none of their first 22 played).
Suddenly Seattle is fairly loaded in their backfield. I had forgotten they stole Owen Schmitt even at FB. If Duckett can be productive heck it will be interesting to see the final cuts because you've got Julius Jones, Maurice Morris, Justin Forsett & TJ Duckett plus Schmitt at FB. Granted in two seasons all but the two rookies should be done.
I'm just your average sports nut, I suppose. Of course I'm a bit of a homer - the Mariners, Seahawks, and Huskies are my teams - but I stick with my boys down the stretch, through thick and thin.
What can the Mariners do to rebound from their worst season in twent years? Will Erik Bedard recover in time for the 2009 season? Ryan Rowland-Smith and Brandon Morrow look to make the transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation, so can they combine with Felix to create a young and effective 1-2-3 tandem? How will the M's new front office guru fare - will Chuckie and Howie be able to stay "hands off" long enough for the new VP/GM to accomplish anything positive? Can the Seahawks recover from their early-season woes and rebound for a fifth straight NFC West title? How will the team handle the transition from Mike Holmgren's regime to the ways of Jim Mora Jr? Can the Hawks' defense stop anyone? Can the offense put up more than 200 yards?
Any of you folks out there interested in healthy and creative debate about anything, feel free to speak up!
