I have been able to write a program that, taking into account the previous three full NFL seasons, was able to predict with a 74% accuracy, and within 4.5%, season stats for NFL players. I ran that program for the upcoming NFL campaign, and here is what came out.
Matt Hasselbeck: 3,549 YDS, 28 TD, 15 INT, 61.7% COMP
Julius Jones: 827 YDS, 189 ATT, 6 TD
T.J. Duckett: 433 YDS, 113 ATT, 7 TD
Maurice Morris: 272 YDS, 59 ATT, 2 TD
Bobby Engram: 79 REC, 1006 YDS, 7 TD
Nate Burleson: 73 REC, 934 YDS, 13 TD
John Carlson: 37 REC, 414 YDS, 4 TD
Lofa Tatupu: 118 TKL, 3.5 SK, 2 INT, 2 FF
Julian Peterson: 79 TKL, 8.5 SK, 1 INT, 4 FF
Marcus Trufant: 68 TKL, 2 SK, 6 INT, 2 FF
Patrick Kerney: 66 TKL, 15.5 SK, 1 INT, 6 FF
Kelly Jennings: 62 TKL, 1 SK, 2 INT, 1 FF
Darryl Tapp: 56 TKL, 7.5 SK, 4 FF
Now, I have also done the same for the QBs and RBs on the other NFC West teams...
Frank Gore: 1442 YDS, 337 ATT, 11 TD
Stephen Jackson: 1259 YDS, 267 ATT, 12 TD
Edgerrin James: 1007 YDS, 268 ATT, 9 TD
Alex Smith: 2,564 YDS, 13 TD, 19 INT, 54.6% COMP
Marc Bulger: 3,833 YDS, 29 TD, 17 INT, 62.2% COMP
Matt Leinart: 3,396 YDS, 25 TD, 16 INT, 57.9% COMP
More to come later - it takes some time, as I have to enter all the complete season stats for three full years, and that isn't so easy.
No salary information was involved in my calc's. It's based on specific performance information from the past three NFL seasons. I also accounted for college statistics, but I'm not sure those will be all that accurate.
By doing the same thing for last season, I was within 4.5% accuracy with my formulae on 3/4 of the players I used it on. Of those that were outside of the 4.5% accuracy range, many suffered injuries that stunted their playing time in 2007-08.
Apparantly you used the full analytical criteria method, because Seahawk players are statistically better than 9ers, Rams, or Cards. The rest of the NFC West divsion refute this method for obvious reasons.
As a test-run of my method, I used it to 'predict', after the fact, statistical performances of 21 NFL players - 3 QB, 4 RB, 5 WR, 3 LB, 3 DL, 3 DB - for the 2007-08 season based upon their performances during the three previous seasons, therefore all the 'predictions' were based upon statistical comparisons only.
Of the 21 players tested, only 5 ended up with predictions that were more than 4.5% outside of their actual 2007-08 statistical performances - those five were Shaun Alexander (injury), Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Steven Jackson (injury), and Marvin Harrison (injury).
I feel at least somewhat confident that, aside of injuries or forces outside of anyone's control, my statistical predictions will be within a reasonable range for the upcoming season.
Of course, in sports, anything can happen - Mike Wahle might be the perfect fit for the Hawks and Julius Jones might rush for 1,300 yards. Then again, I find it doubtful.
I'm just your average sports nut, I suppose. Of course I'm a bit of a homer - the Mariners, Seahawks, and Huskies are my teams - but I stick with my boys down the stretch, through thick and thin.
What can the Mariners do to rebound from their worst season in twent years? Will Erik Bedard recover in time for the 2009 season? Ryan Rowland-Smith and Brandon Morrow look to make the transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation, so can they combine with Felix to create a young and effective 1-2-3 tandem? How will the M's new front office guru fare - will Chuckie and Howie be able to stay "hands off" long enough for the new VP/GM to accomplish anything positive? Can the Seahawks recover from their early-season woes and rebound for a fifth straight NFC West title? How will the team handle the transition from Mike Holmgren's regime to the ways of Jim Mora Jr? Can the Hawks' defense stop anyone? Can the offense put up more than 200 yards?
Any of you folks out there interested in healthy and creative debate about anything, feel free to speak up!
