With a little more information now than in my previous blog post on this very topic, I have altered a few things in the predictions for the NFC West in the 2008 NFL season.  Some things, however, have not changed:

1 - The Seattle Seahawks (11-5) will win the division for the fifth straight season, an accomplishment only the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts can also currently claim

2 - The Arizona Cardinals (8-8 or 9-7) will finish 2nd in the NFC West

3 - The St. Louis Rams (6-10) are awful on the defensive side of the ball, perhaps the worst all-around defense in the NFC

4 - The San Francisco 49ers (6-10) are awful on BOTH sides of the ball

Under normal circumstances, any time a team makes a significant change at the quarterback position, one must re-review the team's personnel to see if a significant change in overall team performance will take place.

ARI: Three months ago, Im picked Arizona and the New Orleans Saints as my NFC sleeper picks.  As things stand right now, Matt Leinart is supposed to be the future of the Cardinals' offense.  Unfortunately for him, his "backup" is former Super Bowl MVP Kurt Warner, he of the leader of the "Greatest Show On Turf".  Now that Warner has been named the starter, I think 9-7 is a fair and solid prediction for the Cardinals in 2008.  8-8 seems a little low for this club without the inexperienced Leinart at QB, and Warner brings a toughness and grit to the offense.  Anquan Boldin's little contract dispute likely won't be much of a distraction for the team, as he and Larry Fitzgerald pair up to make perhaps the most explosive and potent WR duo in the NFC.  Defensively, Arizona looks pretty good, but they still need to be able to keep the offense going so the defensive starters can get better rest.  This team is close, but not quite there yet.  2009 might be their year to shine, however Matt Leinart really needs to step up and show why he was drafted by the Cardinals.  PREDICTION: 9-7, 2nd in NFC West, no playoffs

STL: Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson are healthy, and that will be a huge plus for this franchise that managed a 3-13 record in 2007.  Will their health, however, be enough to overcome a porous defense?  Well, somewhat, but not enough so as to make them a legitimate postseason sleeper or contender.  Isaac Bruce is gone, Torry Holt has lost a half-step, and Bulger is coming off a very difficult season that saw him miss time during two separate stints.  Bulger wasn't bad - his 70.3 rating was the lowest in his six-season career - but he offered little vision for the future when he was healthy.  For him to return to his 2004-2006 form, Jackson must remain healthy, the offensive line must continue to improve (Bulger was sacked 37 times in just 11 games in 2007), and Drew Bennett and Dane Looker must remain healthy and productive.  Defensively, this franchise is in deep trouble - no one on the depth chart strikes fear into anyone, and the defense has been largely ignored for what seems like an eternity.  Pairing this team's offensive capabilities with a better defense creates a much better club overall.  Sadly, this isn't fantasy football.  PREDICTION: 6-10, 3rd in NFC West, no playoffs

SF: 49ers coaches have found themselves in a tough spot: start the ever-unimpressive Alex Smith, the man with the $50 million contract, or... start J.T. O'Sullivan, Jon Kitna's former Detroit Lions backup that came over along with new Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz?  Martz has been behind O'Sullivan from day one, so if Smith feels slighted, he should - Head Coach Mike Nolan never went to bat for the man he hand-picked in the 2005 draft this offseason or training camp.  Maybe Nolan is feeling the pressure and wants to distance himself from the young man?  The 49ers ground game again figures to be solid, more reminiscent of the 2006 campaign.  Frank Gore is the starter, and DeShaun Foster (from Carolina) the new backup, and they form a good 1-2 punch out of the backfield.  This is Vernon Davis' year to put up or shut up, and the Niners are chock full of inexperienced wideouts with hopes of glory and an aging Isaac Bruce with the dream of one last push into the playoffs.  Unfortunately for them, it is not to be in 2008, as the defensive unit - as good as they can be - cannot make up for an ex-NFL Europe quarterback (O'Sullivan), an offensive coordinator (Martz) that ruined the St. Louis Rams and was well on his way in helping to further ruin the Detroit Lions before he bolted for the Bay Area.  PREDICTION: 6-10, 4th in NFC West, no playoffs

SEA: Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett were brought in to shore up the rushing attack, and as things are going thus far in the preseason, rookie Justin Forcett (California) is likely to beat out Duckett for playing time, perhaps even a roster spot.  Jones has been okay in the preseason, Duckett not good, and Forcett a firecracker.  But, the running game looks to hinge on one very unnoticed player on Seattle's roster: Maurice Morris.  Morris looks to have bulked up this past offseason, and he is hitting holes with authority and a strong stride - he may have a bit of a chip on his shoulder due to Jones and Duckett being signed to run the ball and never really being considered for full-time duties.  Even without former NFL MVP (2005) Shaun Alexander, Seattle still managed to lead all of their divisional opponents in rushing yards.  An improved running game will take a lot of pressure off Matt Hasselbeck, and he will be thankful for it, as Bobby Engram (94 receptions in 2007) is likely out until after the bye week (week 4) and Deion Branch (49 receptions in 2007) is trying to quickly return form offseason knee surgery.  The wildcard for the Seahawks is Nate Burleson, who picked up 50 catches and 9 touchdowns in 2007 after being thrust into a starting role when Branch went down with his injury (one of many).  Defensively, Seattle returns 10 of 11 starters from 2007.  The linebacking corps is top-three in the NFL, the secondary is energetic and provides the 2nd-best pass defense in the NFC, and the front line was bolstered with the draft-day additions of Red Bryant (Texas A&M) and Lawrence Jackson (USC).  PREDICTION: 11-5, NFC West Division Champions

Law school is all about writing you dip. The only degree you have was cut from the bottom of Toasted Oaties.

A lot of players have had good Augusts, yes.  A lot have propelled their teams into playoff consideration or extended divisional leads.  But, have any of them been more important to their respective teams, though, than Raul Ibanez has been to the Seattle Mariners?

In 67 August at-bats, Ibanez has 29 hits, 13 for extra bases, amassing a .433 batting average, a .472 on-base percentage and a .483 slugging percentage.  His OPS (on-base + slugging) is .955, and while that isn't an enormous figure, almost 45% of his hits in August have been for extra bases (8 doubles, 1 triple, 4 home runs).  Add in his 21 runs batted in and 17 runs scored, and we're seeing an outstanding month for a guy who isn't really known for having huge months - he's a consistent hitter that drives the ball to the gaps (38 doubles thus far in 2008), but has he ever had a month like August?  Maybe, but not one so important to his team.

The Mariners are mired in the worst season in franchise history.  Sporting a $117 million team salary on opening day, many predicted the M's would challenge the Los Angeles Angels for the AL West division title or at least compete for the AL Wild Card slot.  In short, everything has gone disastrously wrong for Seattle in 2008 - poor hitting, poor fielding, poor pitching.  Their General Manager was fired mid-season, and their field manager was terminated shortly thereafter.  The batting coach was first to go, but none of this was really his fault.

Three weeks ago, on the verge of trading Ibanez and left-handed starting pitcher Jarrod Washburn (who, at the time, was in the middle of a 10-start stretch that lowered his ERA from almost 6.00 to the mid-4's), Seattle Mariners interim General Manager Lee Pelekoudas decided to not trade away Ibanez or Washburn simply to make a deadline move.  While Washburn has been roughed up 2 of his last 3 outings, Ibanez has been a man possessed, playing for the worst team in the American League.

I'm sure a lot of people will have their suggestions for a player of the month that isn't Ibanez, and I earnestly welcome those ideas, suggestions, and thoughts.  But, no one can deny that Raul Ibanez is having a monster August for one of the worst teams in baseball.

... And Why The Seahawks Get Overlooked...

The New England Patriots, winners of three of the last five Super Bowls, have been awarded for their success with the easiest NFL 2008 schedule amongst all 32 teams.  Their opponents combined for a 2007 winning percentage of .387, by far the lowest opponents' winning rate in the league (San Diego gets opponents that amassed a .422 winning percentage in 2007).

Strangely, with all of the talk about how weak the NFC West is and has beeen, the AFC East and AFC West teams' combined strength of schedule are both .439, by far the easiest in the NFL (notables in parentheses).

AFC East: 450-574, .439 (New England - .387)

AFC West: 450-574, .439 (San Diego - .422)

AFC North: 574-449, .561 (Pittsburgh - .598)

AFC South: 576-448, .563 (Indianapolis - .594)

NFC East: 534-490, .521 (Dallas - .523)

NFC West: 490-534, .479 (Seattle - .479)

NFC North: 552-472, .539 (Minnesota - .551)

NFC South: 474-550, .463 (New Orleans - .449)

If NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is going for parity, then he has a very long journey ahead of him in regards to the schedule.

New England only plays four division winners from 2007 - Seattle, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Indianapolis.  No NFC East or NFC North teams.  Only the Colts and the Steelers play in regularly-acknowledged tough divisions; San Diego gets the benefit of the weakest overall NFL division; Seattle plays in the NFC West, the 2nd weakest division in the NFC.

Talk about having an easy schedule.

Conversely, Pittsburgh - who won the AFC North in 2007 with a 10-6 mark - has a S.O.S. of .598, the biggest opponents' winning percentage in the NFL.  Indianapolis has the 2nd-toughest with a .594 opponents' 2007 mark to overcome.  Jacksonville and Minnesota, two teams expected to challenge for their division titles in 2008, have .559 and .551 opponents' marks, respectively.  Those four teams have the toughest S.O.S. to overcome, and New England and San Diego have the two easiest to march through.

The NFC West, however, has a combined S.O.S. mark of .479, the 5th-ranked divisional S.O.S. in the NFL - the AFC East, AFC West and NFC East all have lower S.O.S. ratings.

The Seattle Seahawks schedule includes the New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Washington Redskins, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, all NFL division winners from 2007 that combined for an 83-29 record in 2007 for a winning percentage of .741 - and the NFC West is weak?  If so, then why the difficult schedule?  Why is Seattle playing six of seven division winners if the NFC West is so weak?  Will national sports writers and so-called "NFL experts" relax on the weakness of the NFC West if Seattle survives their schedule to post a 10-6 or 11-5 mark in 2008?  No, Seattle doesn't have a particularly difficult schedule (.477 S.O.S.), but they do play some very good teams this season.

How do the Saint Louis Rams, 3-13 in 2007, get a tougher schedule (.488 S.O.S.) than division winners New England (.387), San Diego (.422), Seattle (.477) and Tampa Bay (.469)?  Why is Baltimore, 5-11 in 2007, saddled with the 4th-toughest NFL schedule in 2008 (.551 S.O.S.)?  The NFL has no parity, and the S.O.S. ratings prove that point beyond any shadow of any doubt.

NOTE: The Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears game Saturday night ended 29-26, Seattle winning in OT on Brandon Coutu's field goal.  In national press, Chicago was credited for scoring so many points against the Seahawks, who gave up the 3rd fewest total points (291) in the NFC last season.  But, let's take a closer look at the Bears' scoring, shall we?

The Bears' defense scored a safety (2 points), and interception returned for a touchdown (6 points) and a punt returned for a touchdown (6 points) - of the Bears' 26 points, 14 came from the defense, along with two extra points from the defensive TD's.  Seattle's defense allowed a total of 10 points and 205 total yards.  The Seahawks won - nay, dominated - the time of possession 39:31 to 23:57, almost a 2-to-1 margin.  Seattle allowed just 51 yards rushing on 20 carries for a 2.6 average for the Bears.  By contrast, Seattle outgained the Bears on the ground by 190 yards (241 total rushing yards) for a 5.4 yard average on 45 rushing attempts.

Anyone who watched the game saw a defensive struggle for 2-1/2 quarters - the score was 9-5 at halftime in favor of the Seahawks, fer crissakes.  And, anyone watching saw Rex Grossman fleeing for his life against a strong 4-man and 5-man pass rush for Seattle.

I give the Bears' backups and defense credit for making a good game out of what was an absolute snooze-fest for the first 38 minutes of regulation.  Beyond that, however, the Bears got outplayed, out maneuvered, out coached, and out classed by a superior Seahawks squad.

It's not going to be a very warm evening, so to start things off, we're ready to fire up the grill and make the most of our opportunity!

3:00PM - Appetizer #1: Grilled Marinated Pineapple

I marinated some pineapple slices overnight in a homemade teriyaki sauce, ground ginger, and sesame oil.  When the grill is nice and warm (a steady 450 degrees when closed), lay each slice on the grill, then sprinkle the up side with a dash of cinnamon.  A few minutes later (4 or 5 is usually enough), flip each piece - you should see grilling marks on the first side once you flip it, indicating the sugars in the pineapple have glazed properly.  Another few minutes on the other side, and you're ready to serve fresh off the grill.

I like serving these with mojitos made with fresh mint and 10-Cane rum.

3:00PM - Appetizer #2: Fried Potato Rolls

These take some preparation beforehand (I usually make and freeze mine a week or so before use), but they are well worth the work.  All you need is a few pounds of potatoes, half-and-half, some green onions, garlic, bacon, and jalapenos.  Boil and mash the potatoes.  Blanch the green onions.  Chop up the (cooked) bacon, garlic, and jalapenos.  Blend all the veggies in a food processor with about a half cup of the half-n-half - the color should be a brilliant green color.  Add the mixture to the potatoes and stir, then referigerate overnight.  The next day, get some lumpia (6"x6" square rice paper rolls, easily found at any asian food store) and roll each one with a small handful of the mixture from the night before.  Use an egg wash to help seal each one.  This part takes a while, so be patient.  When all are done, place in freezer until intended use.  Heat fryer with FRESH vegetable or peanut oil to 375-385 degrees, placing about a hal####ozen of the still-frozen rolls into the oil.  Cook until they turn a golden brown color and float for a minute and a half or so.  Serve them with your favorite cheese sauce or whatever you think will taste good with them!

4:30PM - Main Course #1: Beer Brats

Overnight, I marinated some grocery store brand brats in a beer and whiskey mixture (12 brats, 2 beers, 2 shots Crown Royal), and threw in two medium sliced yellow onions, about 3 cups worth.  Keeping the onions in the marinade, remove the brats and pour the onions and liquid into a saucepan, heat to a light boil, simmer and cover.  Cook the brats on a warm grill (425 or so), keeping an eye on them - pork fat can ignite a flash burn really quickly, so make sure to not puncture the brats if possible.  When they are cooked throughout, serve them on your favorite pub bun, add some of the beer/whiskey marinated onions, add a good dose of stone-ground hot mustard, and enjoy!

6:30PM (halftime-ish) - Main Course #2: Grilled Rosemary and Garlic Lamb Loin Chops

Remove the chops about 60 minutes prior to cooking to allow them to come to room temperature (they're much easier to cook properly this way).  All I use is some olive oil, pepper, salt (just a pinch!), crushed rosemary, thyme, basil, and some fresh italian parsely (finely chopped).  Mix about 2 tablespoons of olive oil with equal parts everything (except the salt - just a pinch!) until it creates a thick paste.  Brush the paste all over the chops and grill, about 5-6 minutes each side for rare; about 7-8 minutes each side for medium - closing the grill for intermittently is helpful if you cannot remove them from the cooler prior to cooking.  Serve with mint jelly, more potato rolls, fresh garlic bread, and a pasta salad (I like orzo, myself).

I might be more excited about the food than I am about the first pre-season football game!

Innumerable Seattle Mariners fans have been complaining about the lack of deadline deals this season.  It hinders their ability to win next year, some say.  It weakens the proposition of obtaining a front-line free agent this winter, others say.  It stunts the growth and development of some younger players.

With the retention of Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn, Erik Bedard (pretty untradeable due to injury), Ichiro Suzuki and Raul Ibanez, Seattle GM Lee Pelekoudas displayed his knowledge of major league baseball.  Those five players account for about $55 million in payroll for 2009 (depending upon performance bonuses and Raul Ibanez' arbitration outcome should the M's offer it), and while that's a good chunk of money, it is money relatively wisely-invested.

Beltre's contract is the most difficult to accept, considering his offensive production during his time in Seattle has been spotty, at best.  However, his defensive skill and powerful arm make him a necessity for the M's - Marcus Tuiasasopo (3B - AAATacoma) is probably 2+ seasons away from being able to regularly contribute at the MLB level, and Beltre is Seattle's best overall option for the hot corner. His $13.4 million salary for 2009 is big, but it's also a necessary evil, considering the sgtate of affairs in the farm system.

Jarrod Washburn was probably Seattle most attractive trade bait this past July, but the M's were consistently lowballed by interested teams.  His $10.35 million salary in 2009 makes him an expensive #3/4/5 starter in any city, and while he's done well as of late (past 10-11 starts or so), he has had little success with the Mariners since arriving prior to the 2006 season (23-40 record with a mid-4.00 ERA).  It's not that he's pitched poorly the whole time, though - he's been a victim of meager run support several times, and while that's not an excuse for failure, it certainly does explain some of his issues in Seattle.  With the probability of Ryan Rowland-Smith and Brandon Morrow in the 2009 starting rotation, Washburn offers a decade of MLB experience to players that have spent little time in the majors.

Erik Bedard, who has been a bust in Seattle since former GM Bill Bavasi traded away the entire A-list of farm system players for the lefty from Baltimore, is completely untradeable at this time.  Ignoring his propensity for injury and inability to get past the 100-pitch mark in 2008, Bedard is sporting a 6-4 record in 15 starts and has posted a 3.76 ERA in his 81 innings of work.  Not great, and not worth the price Seattle paid for his services, but good enough to see enough promise in his abilities to keep him in Seattle.  Unfortunately for him, though, unless he rebounds with a huge season in 2009 and inks a long-term deal with the Mariners, he will forever be regarded as the bust-of-the-century for Seattle; they guy they traded the farm for.

Ichiro Suzuki is the face of the Mariners, and trading him would create PR nightmares both in the Pacific Northwest and in Japan.  He is the Mariners' icon, the one player every fan knows.  He isn't hitting .350 this season, as we have all become accustomed, but his .307 BA is respectable.  Is it $17 million a year respectable?  Absolutely not, but he brings more to the Mariners than just a batting average, some stolen bases, and a widely-recognized mugshot.  He brings excitement, which is something very impressive for a guy that will be 35 years old next season.  His defense is still superb, he can still steal bases and keep pace with the league leaders, and he can play any outfield position - he even offered to pitch one game when the M's were down to nothing in the bullpen.  Anyone who questions his dedication to the team and to winning just needs to consider that last statement to see what Ichiro is really all about.

As an outfielder, Raul Ibanez is no longer on the list of 'acceptable' or 'serviceable' defenders.  He has become a terrible liability, and considering the slew of young outfield prospects in the Mariners' farm system and the youngsters already with the club (Diaz, Redman, Balentien, Reed, Jimerson, et al), Seattle needs to find a new home for him in the lineup.  There has been some chatter about Raul playing first base in 2009 for the Mariners, and while that might work, it also might stunt the development of Brian LaHair, Seattle's newest young stud.  Moving Raul to DH would solve two issues: 1) it solidifies LaHair's position and future with the club, and 2) it clearly states to Jeff Clement and Kenji Johjima that LaHair is here to stay and they both need to improve their game(s) if they intend on sticking around.

There are a lot of question marks and holes for the Mariners.  Who will be the GM?  Will Riggleman keep his job?  What offseason moves will Seattle make to improve the team?  What youngsters will shine or fade?

Questions, holes, issues... and a little glimmer of hope and promise.

Wow that was '95, seems like just yesterday, I remember it so well. The minute he scored that run the fans went nuts and started piling on the field, the cops were trying to catch as many as they could, but it was impossible. My bro and I decide to go for it, we jump down, and a cop spots us, side by side we run straight at him, and at the last second, we split around him and he grabs for me, just grazing my jacket, we make it and head for the pitching mound and procede to tear it apart, keeping our own little piece of Mariners history. What a gas that was!

OMG, somebody shoot me now.

My kids just came home from being at the mall with mom and they both had 49er cups that they got from the arcade. What the hell is this world coming to when innocent kids are handed this kind of pornography in a public mall?

... why the NFL Should Tackle Statistical Silliness!!!

Middle linebacker Patrick Willis of the San Francisco 49ers was the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007. If you trust his statistics, he should have been the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year as well. Maybe even the NFL Defensive Player of the Decade.

Willis was credited with 226 tackles by the 49ers – a staggering 42 more than the league's next most prolific tackler, Ray Lewis of the Baltimore Ravens.

Willis collected 117 more tackles than the starting NFC middle linebacker in the Pro Bowl (Lofa Tatupu, Seattle Seahawks) and 99 more than the AFC starter (Demeco Ryans, Houston Texans). Was Willis that much more active, that much more proficient than any other defensive player in the NFL?

But I don't trust the statistics – not tackle stats, anyway.

Each NFL team employs a stat crew for its home games. That crew's final statistics are deemed official by the league office: yardage for rushing, passing, receiving and various kick returns plus field goal and punting distances, sacks, interceptions, touchdowns ...

But 28 of the 32 NFL teams do not acknowledge the press box tackle stats as official. On the Monday following games, NFL defensive coaching staffs break down the films on their own and award a new set of tackle numbers. Those are listed by each team as its "official" tackle count.

Willis was credited with 174 tackles by NFL stat crews in 2007. Upon further review, the San Francisco coaches gave him credit for 52 more tackles, bumping his "official" count to 226. How is it possible for stat crews league-wide to miss 52 tackles by Willis? That's a 23 percent increase in his tackle count. That's like the New England offensive staff studying weekly game tapes and uncovering 1,400 passing yards that stat crews missed in Tom Brady's 2007 season.

New England finished fourth in the NFL in defense and was one of only two teams that did not credit a player with 100 tackles. Miami was the other. Indianapolis finished one rung ahead of the Patriots on defense at third – but had a league-high five players with 100-plus tackles. The Indy defense was on the field for 980 snaps last season. But there were no tackles on 199 of those plays because they were either incomplete passes, interceptions or offensive touchdowns. That left 781 defensive snaps that involved a tackle – and the Colts' coaching staff awarded a league-high 1,416 tackles. That's an average of 1.81 tackles per play. The Indianapolis staff awarded 891 "solo" tackles in those 781 plays. Figure that one out.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished second in the NFL in defense, were even more generous. Their coaches awarded 1,385 tackles in 755 plays, an average of 1.83 tackles per play. The 49ers averaged 1.63 tackles per play.

I surveyed a handful of NFL head coaches a few years back, asking them what they considered a legitimate tackle average. The consensus was 1.44 tackles per play. I still consider that a bit high. I'm of the belief 1.3 tackles per play is about right. Nonetheless, 15 teams were at or below the 1.44 figure in 2007.

The four teams that count the press-box tackle stats as official are Houston, Miami, Oakland and Seattle. All finished in the league's bottom six in tackles per play. Ryan's Houston defense averaged 1.23 tackles per play, and Tatupu's Seattle defense averaged 1.13.

The first time I put together a league-wide tackle chart in 1992, there were three teams that averaged better than two tackles per play. That was ridiculous, not to mention impossible. So there has been slight improvement from one decade to the next.

Here's my solution: The NFL office should hire a retired defensive coach, bring him to New York on Sunday and give him three days to break down the tape for all 16 games. Let him credit all the tackles for all the games. One set of eyes would foster a league-wide consistency. It would also eliminate any and all bias – and padding – by stat crews and or coaching staffs.

I doubt you'd see any more 200-tackle seasons. And I'd start accepting tackle statistics as legit.

Here's the NFC West tackle chart for 2007. The first column is the number of defensive snaps by each team. Now subtract the non-tackle plays (incompletions, interceptions and offensive touchdowns) in the second column, producing the number of actual tackle plays (third column). Now divide the number of credited tackles (fourth column) by the number of actual tackle plays (third column). That produces an average number of tackles per play by a team (fifth column).

 Team / Plays / Non-T / T-plays / Tackles / Avg.

San Francisco / 1,078 / 231 / 847 / 1,381 / 1.63

St. Louis / 999 / 246 / 753 / 1,096 / 1.45

Arizona / 1,013 / 248 / 765 / 1,036 / 1.35

p-Seattle / 1,035 / 266 / 769 / 872 / 1.13

(p-Press box statistics considered official)

How did San Francisco AVERAGE an entire half-tackle more per tackle play than Seattle?  Is that even statistically feasible?

I think not, and it's about the time the rest of the NFL woke up to this kind of statistical padding and shenanigans.

Below is a comparison of all the NFC West quarterbacks with their most recent full season (half the games or more) of service in parentheses.

ARI - Matt Leinart (2006): 214/377, 56.8% COMP, 2,547 YDS, 11/12 TD/INT, 74.0 RTG

STL - Marc Bulger (2007): 221/378, 58.5% COMP, 2,392 YDS, 11/15 TD/INT, 70.3 RTG

SF - Alex Smith (2006): 257/442, 58.1% COMP, 2,890 YDS,16/16 TD/INT, 74.8 RTG

SEA - Matt Hasselbeck (2007): 352/562, 62.6% COMP, 3,966 YDS, 28/12 TD/INT, 91.4 RTG

It's not difficult at all to see who the superior team leader is - Hasselbeck.  He led all NFC West quarterbacks in every meaningful offensive category.

As for overall team offensive production, let's take a quick peek at how things went in 2007-08, shall we?...

ARI - 5,505 TOT YDS (1,440 RUSH/4,065 PASS), 25.3 PPG

STL - 4,760 TOT YDS (1,527 RUSH/3,233 PASS), 16.4 PPG

SF - 3,797 TOT YDS (1,477 RUSH/2,320 PASS), 13.7 PPG

SEA - 5,583 TOT YDS (1,619 RUSH/3,964 PASS), 24.6 PPG

Even without 2005 NFL MVP Shaun Alexander, Seattle still led the NFC West in total offensive yards, while also scoring just 11 total points fewer than Arizona and its heralded offense.  Seattle's rushing game was SO poor in 2007-08 that they led the NFC West in team rushing yards.

Defensively, here is how the NFC West shakes down...

ARI - 5,283 TOT YDS (1,567 RUSH/3,716 PASS), 24.9 PPG

STL - 5,457 TOT YDS (1,844 RUSH/3,613 PASS), 27.4 PPG

SF - 5,539 TOT YDS (1,896 RUSH/3.643 PASS), 22.8 PPG

SEA - 5,149 TOT YDS (1.644 RUSH/3,505 PASS), 18.2 PPG

Again, Seattle led the NFC West in nearly every major defensive statistical category, the lone exception being rushing yards allowed (ARI - 1,567; SEA - 1,644).  Somehow, Seattle (10-6 in 2007-08) managed to allow the fewest passing yards in the division - how is this even remotely possible, considering they were the only playoff team from the NFC West and outscored their opponents by an average of 6.4 points per game?  Go figure!

Seattle was +10 in turnover margin, good for 2nd in the NFC behind only Dallas (+15).  The rest of the NFC West combined for a -29 mark, with the 49ers leading the charge in the NFC at -12.

Seattle marched for 323 1st downs, again leading their division in yet ANOTHER statistical category.  Arizona picked up 308 total 1st downs, the Rams marked 281, and the lowly 49ers managed just 218 total sets of chains moved.

The Rams (81) led the NFC West with 81 converted third downs, with Arizona and Seattle tying for 2nd with 75 each.  San Francisco picked up 69 third down conversions.  None of the NFC West teams converted a particularly good percentage of their 3rd down opportunities, however, with Arizona leading the charge with 36.9% converted, good for 8th in the NFC.

Seattle led the NFC in fewest penalties against with just 59 for 428 yards.  Saint Louis had 94 penalties for 794 yards, the Niners 97 for 702 yards, and the Cardinals were the most-penalized NFC team with 137 penalties for 1,128 yards.

Seattle again led their division by allowing just 37.9% of their opponents' third down conversion attempts; the Rams allowed 38.8%, the Cardinals allowed 40.1%, and the 49ers allowed 40.2%.

Only Tampa Bay (258) allowed fewer total first downs than Seattle (278) in the NFC.  Arizona allowed a respectable 298, but San Francisco (308) and Saint Louis (316) were near the bottom in that category.

The Seahawks' defense led the NFC West again with 45 sacks for 303 yards.  Arizona picked up 36 sacks for 242 yards, the Niners 31 for 183 yards, and the Rams 31 for 234 yards.

Seattle led the NFC with 20 interceptions, and the Cardinals and Rams each picked up 18.  The 49ers managed just 12, good for 2nd-fewest in the NFC.  Ahhh, that prime-time San Francisco defense!

In summation, it's not at all difficult to see which NFC West team was dominant and which ones were inferior in 2007-08.  I challenge any division opponents' fans to come up with reasons why their team will be improved in 2008-09 and challenge the Seattle Seahawks for dominance in the NFC West.

As things stand right now, no team in the NFC West improved that much to begin with from last season, so it only stands to reason that Seattle will once again be the dominant force in the division.

Disagree?  Great, say so... then have the balls to say WHY.

Several San Francisco 49ers fans have been rather, uhm, voiciferous in their assertions that their team will improve so much upon their 2007-08 campaign that they will be capable of challenging the Seattle Seahawks for the division title.

Let's set the record straight, shall we?

Defensively, Seattle has the far superior squad.  Lofa Tatupu, Julian Peterson and LeRoy Hill make the best 4-3 scheme LB trio in the NFL, hands down.  Hill could very easily be a Pro-Bowler were he on a different team.  Marcus Trufant is one the best three or four cover cornerbacks in the NFL, and Kelly Jennings held his own with excellent play last year in his rookie season.  Patrick Kerney is one of the most athletic defensive ends in the NFC.  Brian Russell and Deion Grant are a formidable safety combination with excellent vision and knowledge of the game.  Seattle gave up 390 fewer yards than San Francisco, and 73 fewer points.  The Seahawks forced 34 turnovers (tied for 2nd in NFL with Indianapolis) in 2007-08; the 49ers just 22 - only the New York Jets (21) and Philadelphia Eagles (19) had fewer takeaways. 

On the offensive side, there is no question who is better: Seattle.  Even with 2005 NFL MVP Shaun Alexander completely inept in 2007-08, Seattle still outrushed the 49ers by 142 total rushing yards (1,619 to 1,477).  At quarterback, Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck is a perennial Pro-Bowl-caliber performer; Alex Smith, San Francisco's projected starter, completed just 48.7% of his passes (94-193) for 914 total yards, 2 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a passer rating of 57.2.  Frank Gore, San Francisco's lone offensive standout, had a tough year in 2007-08, getting just 1,102 yards on 260 carries and picking up 5 scores, but he figures to rebound from some nagging nicks and dings that slowed his production last year.

Seattle picked up Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett this offseason to bolster their running game, and every expectation has Seattle improving offensively with better balance, more options, and better athleticism at wide receiver.  Mike Wahle, the former Caroline Panther Pro-Bowl guard, looks to improve the left side of Seattle's offensive line, further aiding their interest in improving the running game.  San Francisco's big offseason acquisitions are WR Isaac Bruce (Saint Louis Rams castoff) and new Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz, the 4th O.C. in the past five seasons.

If San Francisco manages to eke out 6 wins with their current roster, the NFL should be shocked beyond belief.  That franchise is in complete disarray - no viable option at QB, an inexperienced and sack-prone offensive line, unproven and old wide receivers, a defensive backfield that can't cover their own eyes, and a defensive line with no signs of improvement from 2007-08.

In fact, the 49ers might win only 1 divisional game.

The upcoming season looks bleak if you're a Niners fan.  The incontrovertible facts support that truth 100%.

Now that trade rumors and reports are coming in, our su####ions are coming to fruition - Seattle is the truest definition of "seller" at the July 31, 2008 MLB trading deadline.

With that in mind, I have decided that it's time we take a look at the future of this club; those players with the best chance of earning a spot on the roster and making a positive difference for the franchise.  I have compiled lists of players who will either have a slot on the roster locked up going into 2009 or will be competing for one.

This is all predicated upon the following: Raul Ibanez sticks around for 2009, Adrian Beltre isn't traded away, and neither is Kenji Johjima.

STARTING PITCHERS: Locks - Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Carlos Silva; On The Bubble - Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ryan Feierabend, R.A. Dickey; Wildcards: Brandon Morrow, Chris Jakubauskas, Sean White, Robert Rohrabugh, Rich Dorman

BULLPEN: Locks - J.J. Putz, Brandon Morrow, Roy Corcoran, Mark Lowe, Sean Green; On The Bubble: Cesar Jimenez, Jorge Sosa, R.A. Dickey, Eric O'Flaherty, Randy Messenger, Andrew Baldwin, Sean White, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ryan Feierabend, Chris Jakubauskas, Robert Rohrbaugh, Rich Dorman, Phillippe Aumont

INFIELD: Locks - Kenji Johjima, Jeff Clement, Jose Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Adrian Beltre; On The Bubble: Jamie Burke, Miguel Cairo, Mike Morse, Bryan LaHair; Wild Cards: Rob Johnson, Tug Hulett, Craig Wilson, Yung Chi Chen, Carlos Truinfel, Oswaldo Navarro

OUTFIELD: Locks - Ichiro Suzuki, Jeremy Reed, Raul Ibanez; On The Bubble: Wlademir Balentien, Victor Diaz, Willie Bloomquist, Charlton Jimerson; Wildcards: Prentice Redman, Shawn Garrett

What players would YOU like to see with the M's in 2009?  What free agents might Seattle have a shot at locking up?  Who will be the Manager?  The GM?

As bad as the Seattle Mariners have been in 2008, there is a bit of a silver lining around this horrible and seemingly interminable season.

Young pitchers Felix Hernandez (22), Brandon Morrow (23) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (25) figure to be the #1, #4 and #5 starters in 2009 (this is dependant upon the Mariners trading Jarrod Washburn).  Throw in the potential for a healthy Erik Bedard (13-5, 3.16 ERA in 2007) and a hopefully resurgent Carlos Silva (13-14, 4.19 ERA in 2007), and the starting rotation appears to have some promise.

Unfortunately, by removing Morrow and Rowland-Smith from the bullpen, Seattle's relieving corps is quite thin.  Sean Green, Mark Lowe and J.J. Putz will be the primary holdovers into 2009.  Roy Corcoran, Cesar Jimenez and R.A. Dickey are almost assured of roster spots in 2009.  Therefore, the question of how many pitchers to carry remains the only glaring unknown.  If Seattle carries 12, the final bullpen slot will likely be fought for between Eric O'Flaherty, Jared Wells, and as many as a hal####ozen current AA/AAA pitchers.

The strength of this team coming into 2008 was supposed to be their starting pitching, but injuries to Bedard, Hernandez and Batista have taken their toll (seven different starters have been used thus far), but the poor performances of Silva and Batista, two pitchers who did fairly well in 2007, have really hampered the team's ability to win games.  The expectations for this group were excessively high going into this year, as we can all say with relative confidence.  However, the concept of "if it can go wrong, it will" has destroyed the consistency and effectiveness of the starting rotation.  Batista has been a shadow of the man who won 16 games in 2007.  Silva, whose sinker was supposed to help him shine in Safeco field, is on pace to allow over 20 home runs.  Jarrod Washburn, who is big trade bait for the Mariners right now, had a horrific April and May but has been outstanding in June and July.  Erik Bedard hasn't been able to pitch past the 6th inning in what seems like a decade, and he is becoming noticeably injury-prone.  It hasn't been pretty for these guys, not at all.

However, the youth and vibrance in the pitching staff for the next several years will provide hope, opportunity, and the kind of consistency necessary to win baseball games.

Now it's a matter of being able to hit the ball.

Seattle has sunk millions upon millions of dollars into players like Richie Sexson, Jose Vidro and Adrian Beltre only to see half the production they thought they were buying.  Thankfully, those players are almost assuredly gone by the end of this season, and while I would like to see the Mariners retain Adrian Beltre at a lower contract price, his value on the trade market this summer is likely too high to pass up - the benefit for Seattle is that they don't have to trade him as he's inked throughy 2009.  Unfortunately, there is no one currently in Seattle's organization of minor league affiliates that has the tools as a third baseman to step up and perform at the major-league level.

A new age is going to begin for the Seattle Mariners.  And, while many of the players I have mentioned as key people for this club in the coming seasons may either be gone via trade or free agency or simply not pan out the way I think they can, there is enough youth and enough trade bait on the current roster to allow for the future to hold some promise.

All we can do now, as fans, is hope the young kids get their chance to shine and show they belong in the majors, because it will be through them that the Mariners will find their way back to prominence and respectability.

I have been able to write a program that, taking into account the previous three full NFL seasons, was able to predict with a 74% accuracy, and within 4.5%, season stats for NFL players.  I ran that program for the upcoming NFL campaign, and here is what came out.

Matt Hasselbeck: 3,549 YDS, 28 TD, 15 INT, 61.7% COMP

Julius Jones: 827 YDS, 189 ATT, 6 TD

T.J. Duckett: 433 YDS, 113 ATT, 7 TD

Maurice Morris: 272 YDS, 59 ATT, 2 TD

Bobby Engram: 79 REC, 1006 YDS, 7 TD

Nate Burleson: 73 REC, 934 YDS, 13 TD

John Carlson: 37 REC, 414 YDS, 4 TD

Lofa Tatupu: 118 TKL, 3.5 SK, 2 INT, 2 FF

Julian Peterson: 79 TKL, 8.5 SK, 1 INT, 4 FF

Marcus Trufant: 68 TKL, 2 SK, 6 INT, 2 FF

Patrick Kerney: 66 TKL, 15.5 SK, 1 INT, 6 FF

Kelly Jennings: 62 TKL, 1 SK, 2 INT, 1 FF

Darryl Tapp: 56 TKL, 7.5 SK, 4 FF

Now, I have also done the same for the QBs and RBs on the other NFC West teams...

Frank Gore: 1442 YDS, 337 ATT, 11 TD

Stephen Jackson: 1259 YDS, 267 ATT, 12 TD

Edgerrin James: 1007 YDS, 268 ATT, 9 TD

Alex Smith: 2,564 YDS, 13 TD, 19 INT, 54.6% COMP

Marc Bulger: 3,833 YDS, 29 TD, 17 INT, 62.2% COMP

Matt Leinart: 3,396 YDS, 25 TD, 16 INT, 57.9% COMP

More to come later - it takes some time, as I have to enter all the complete season stats for three full years, and that isn't so easy.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks (10-6 in 2007-08, NFC West Champions): Seattle returns at least 10 of 11 defensive starters from a squad that improved in every aspect over 2006-07.  Kelly Jennings, a former 1st round pick, must continue his development and become a little more conservative in his coverage.  LeRoy Hill, Julian Peterson, and Lofa Tatupu comprise the best under-30 linebacking corps in the NFL.  Offensively, Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett look to improve the running game from a dismal display last season.  While they are not the long-term answer to the issue, their additions will prive to be an improvement.  Walter Jones is a Pro-Bowl LT mainstay, and Mike Wahle should assist in providing better left-side consistency, as Rob Sims moves back to the weak side where he started his career and where he belongs.  Bobby Engram, although 35, is coming off his best professional season.  He wants a contract extension, naturally, and has been fussing over that issue for the better part of two months.  But, don't expect that to be a distraction to this offense, as Nate Burleson finally gets a chance to consistently start and Mike Homgren scours the playbook for ways to insert the dynamic and muti-talented Seneca Wallace.

2008-09 Team MVP: Matt Hasselbeck (QB)

2008-09 Most-Improved Player: Kelly Jennings (CB)

2008-09 Predicted Record: 11-5, NFC West Champions

Saint Loius Rams (3-13 in 2007-08, 4th Place in NFC West): The Rams were absolutely decimated on offense by injuries to key performers Marc Bulger and Stephen Jackson.  Both are 100% going into their team's 2008 Training Camp, and both figure to be prominent figures in a good offense in the upcoming campaign.  Defensively, however, the Rams played more like the Lambs in 2007-08, surrendering the second-most points (438) in the NFC (Detroit led the effort, giving up 444), and they improved only slightly from that.  It remains to be seen if there is an NFL that cannot figure out a way to score 30 points against the Rams' defense, which is flatly horrible.

2008-09 Team MVP: Stephen Jackson (RB)

2008-09 Most Improved Player: Dane Looker (WR)

2008-09 Predicted Record: 8-8, tied for 2nd in NFC West

Arizona Cardinals (8-8 in 2007-08, 2nd in NFC West): Arizona has the tools offensively to have a startling passing attack - Matt Leinart is a cerebral quarterback, and Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are the most dynamic and exciting 1-2 wideout pair in the NFC.  After that trio of performers, however, the offense is just ordinary.  Edgerrin James returns for his 10th NFL season (third in the Arizona desert) with his most productive seasons obviously behind him.  The offensive line is questionable, at best, with Mike Gandy and Reggie Wells on the left side - neither one is particularly skilled.  Leinart, however, must stay healthy for the offense to produce fewer 3-and-outs than last season, when the usually stout Cardinals defense allowed 399 points, 4rd most in the NFC.  Inuries bugged the Cards all season, and with Kurt Warner at the helm, they still managed 8 wins, albeit in a rather weak division.

2008-09 Team MVP: Larry Fitzgerald (WR)

2008-09 Most Improved Player: Leonard Pope (TE)

2008-09 Predicted record: 8-8, tied for 2nd in NFC West

San Francisco 49ers (5-11 in 2007-08, 3rd in NFC West): Alex Smith, Alex Smith, Alex Smith.  Where he goes, so go the Niners.  Mike Martz brings his wacky offensive scheming to the Bay Area, where he figures to improve Smith's ability to throw to his own guys.  Frank Gore, dinged up last season, looks to regain his 2006-07 form when he rushed for nearly 1,700 yards.  The addition of Isaac Bruce to the WR corps may actually prove to be a savvy choice, as his experience and knowledge of Martz' offense will only help Arnaz Battle and Bryant Johnson improve.  However, it couldn't get much worse for the 49ers' offense, which managed a measly and NFL-worst 219 points in 2007-08... that's just 13.7 points per game, a number that will improve with Martz and Bruce coming aboard.  The defense, however, looks to continue its improvement, as Patrick Willis and Brandon Moore execute the interior linebacking duties in a 3-4 defense.  Running against this team will prove to be at least somewhat difficult at times, but the defensive backfield has the personnel to give passers fits, with Walt Harris and Nate Clements anchoring the corner positions.  however, unless the offense pulls off a complete 180-degree turn from the past year, the defense will continue to see a good majority of the 60 minutes on the field.

2008-09 Team MVP: Frank Gore (RB)

2008-09 Most Improved Player: Vernon Davis (TE)

2008-09 Predicted Record: 6-10, 4th in NFC West