We're 1/5th of the way through the season, which is a good time to review the divisional races because-- well, because I said it is. Let's start in the AL East, where the standings go : 1. Red Sox 2. Yankees 3. Blue Jays 4. Orioles 5. Devil Rays.
In other words, precisely where we thought they'd be, when you consider that the Red Sox always start out better than the Yankees, and then always get owned by the end of the regular season. So nothing on the surface can rightly be termed a surprise. Let's go a little deeper:
1. Boston Red Sox (21-13, 1st by 1 game)
MVP so Far: 3b Mike Lowell, who is hitting doubles like Earl Webb after a double-espresso. There's also this guy named Ortiz. And it helps to have Curt Schilling looking unexpectedly healthy and Schill-like (5-2, 3.76). My fantasy team thanks you, Curt. I honestly didn't see that coming, and neither did the guy who offered you as a throw-in to a trade...
Don't Worry About: ca Jason Varitek, now hitting .222. He's due to wear down soon, but probably not that much. Mark Loretta's also got the track record to up his 695 OPS by the break; much ado about nothing with his early struggles.
Go Ahead and Worry About: ss Alex Gonzalez. Let's face it, of the two Gonzalezes, the one you want playing shortstop for your team is: Option C), Hanley Ramirez. It should get better than a 625 OPS, but he's no Nomar.
Outlook: Solid, as far as the playoffs go. Clemens or not, another starting pitcher would help, but the Sox aren't shy about that sort of thing. Eclipsing the Yankees is something else again, and I'd like to see them making more of a statement early.
If They Were a Movie, They'd Be: "Jumanji." Sure, the big-budget effects are nice and it's a decent thrill ride watching them run from the Yankee hunter, but you just get the sense they're leaving some potential laughs on the table.
2. New York Yankees (19-13, 1 game back)
The MVP so far: Maybe you noticed Derek Jeter hitting .349... or maybe you didn't, 'cause he's just being Jeter. Jason Giambi's 12 homers haven't hurt, either-- in fact, the whole lineup's clicking, and Mike Mussina's chipping in a 6-1. Will he finally win 20?
Don't Worry About: sp Randy Johnson. The 5.01 ERA will go down. Maybe not as much as it would have a couple of years ago, but like Nolan Ryan, Randy's a guy who's going to lose it to injuries eventually, not age or ineffectiveness. On the other hand, the mere 32 strikeouts in 47 innings is not a good sign...
Go Ahead and Worry About: The Matsui injury. The man whose name I always mix up with the Mets' Kaz Matsui won't be easily replaced with the materials they have on hand.
Outlook: I see no reason to assume they won't win the division and lose in the playoffs, as they have every year since 2001. Always dangerous.
If They Were a Movie, They'd Be: "Friday the 13th Part VI." STAY BURIED, already!
3. Toronto Blue Jays (19-15, 2 games back)
MVP So Far: of Vernon Wells, who's looking like an MVP. BJ Ryan's 8 saves and miniscule ERA are helping to earn the first big portion of his paycheck, anyway.
Don't Worry About: The biggest holes on the team, namely Aaron Hill's empty .189 at second base and Josh Towers' homemade Coors Field (0-7, 10.09) in the rotation. Sometimes a player does his team a favor by flaming out so obviously that they have to replace him, and the alternative can only be better.
Go Ahead and Worry: About the starting rotation. Roy Halladay's strikeout rate is concering me, Gustavo Chacin isn't pitching well enough to be 5-1, and as for AJ Burnett... well, I knew it was a mistake to sign a largely unproven pitcher to that kind of contract, didn't you? So why didn't Toronto?
Outlook: If the hitting continues and the pitching levels off, they'll challenge for the Wild Card. They'll need some luck to win it, though.
If They Were a Movie, They'd Be: Peter Jackson's "King Kong." They spent a lot of money to make a lot of money, and in large part it's working... but they won't be the hit they'd hoped to be.
4. Baltimore Orioles (15-20, 6.5 games back)
MVP So Far: ss Miguel Tejada (.355-9-29), who might want to change his name to "Honus." Melvin Mora and Jay Gibbons aren't far behind. Kris Benson is making that trade look pretty good on the field-- only a 4.89 ERA, but it's still enough to make him one of their two effective starters. As for closer Chris Ray-- if you'd heard of Chris Ray before this season, you're either an Oriole diehard, a liar, or the proud possessor of a time machine. In which case why haven't you gone back in time to invent the microchip or something and made so much money that you have better things to do than read this?
Don't Worry About: sp Rodrigo Lopez. The 7.03 ERA looks ugly, but his strikeout/walk data is pretty good. He's getting popped for some home runs and will have to adjust, but I think it's just a rough patch.
Go Ahead and Worry About: 1b Kevin Millar. He's 34 years old and his hitting stats remind you of a lite version of Kevin McReynolds. McReynolds burned out young. That .218 might just be real. For that matter, watch Jeff Conine too.
Outlook: Until they get a starting pitcher with an ERA below 4.50, it's gonna stay ugly. Are any of these guys tradeable? In July we might find out...
If They Were a Movie, They'd Be: "The American President." Some solid professionals present, but really below average overall.
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (14-21, 7.5 games back)
MVP So Far: Jonny Gomes (.291-12-29), who is blatantly attempting to distract us from complaining about the way he spells both halves of his name wrong. There's also Scott Kazmir (5-2, 2.94), who everytime I see his line I wish the Rays had simply issued each Mets fan a cyanide pill instead of trading us the now-injured Victor Zambrano
Don't Worry About: Rising gas prices. Since those two are pretty much the only bright spots, you Tampa residents won't be driving out to enough games to worry about it.
Go Ahead and Worry: Because the team is hitting .234 with a 5.25 ERA. I don't care if you have a young Rogers Hornsby, Carl Hubbell, Luis Aparacio, and Roy Hobbs in your farm system. There's no positive spin for that.
Outlook: To continue making Floridians ask themselves "Is this why we pleaded so long for Major League Baseball? Seriously?"
If They Were a Movie, They'd Be: "Wing Commander." I see Carl Crawford as Freddie Prinz Jr. and Gomes as Matthew Lillard...
Next Time: The AL Central! Because I'm just that organized.
Great analysis, entertaining categories.
Though Toronto got thoroughly hosed by this year's free agent pitching auction, overspent on mediocre talent, that always comes back to haunt you.