On Halloween Eve, Cincinnati defeated 23rd ranked South Florida which would lead no Big East team possibly in next week's Top 25 poll. With an automatic berth in the BCS, things could look bleak for the Big East teams as more deserved teams in mid-major conference like TCU, Utah, Boise State, and Tulsa are all in the running to wreck the BCS party. Last season, Connecticut was the surprise team along with South Florida while Louisville finished 6-6 without a bowl bid. This is the most recent Sagarin ratings:
30 Connecticut A = 78.23 6 2 70.43( 44) 0 0 | 1 1 | 79.83 23 | 76.32 39
42 South Florida A = 76.03 6 2 65.72( 94) 0 0 | 0 0 | 74.20 52 | 77.52 36
46 Pittsburgh A = 75.24 5 2 70.31( 45) 0 0 | 1 0 | 75.28 47 | 74.72 49
50 West Virginia A = 74.55 5 2 66.41( 89) 0 0 | 0 0 | 73.69 53 | 74.93 48
51 Cincinnati A = 74.33 5 2 67.09( 83) 0 1 | 0 2 | 76.58 35 | 71.85 57
58 Rutgers A = 71.70 3 5 71.46( 33) 0 0 | 1 1 | 71.71 63 | 71.21 61
60 Louisville A = 71.50 5 2 63.88( 105) 0 0 | 0 1 | 73.55 55 | 69.15 71
121 Syracuse A = 59.07 1 6 73.57( 20) 0 1 | 0 1 | 58.23 123 | 59.42 113No surprise Syracuse is ranked last with their only win against FCS Northeastern University in Boston, MA. Only Washington State has a worse ranking than Syracuse among major conference teams. It is (possibly) a lame duck season for Greg Robinson as they have trouble on both sides of the ball. Rutgers with two decent wins over UCONN and Pitt to move up to 58 and they might have a chance to get back into the bowl picture. The game of the week is West Virginia traveling to East Hartford to face the UConn Huskies. UConn already faced a speedy running QB in Baylor's Robert Griffin but Pat White has more talent surrounding him and whoever starts at QB for UConn has to give the ball to Donald Brown and the defense to step up. It will be a tough game for WVU as UConn is a tough team especially at home.  Another huge game is Norte Dame versus Pitt. As of now, West Virginia is leading the Big East standings. B

As the final whistle blows, the Bengals are the first team in the NFL this season to guarantee at most a .500 record. It will take a miracle for the Bengals (I mean the Bun-gulls) to win eight straight games without Carson Palmer and an increasingly disgruntled Chad Ocho Cinco. They started the season by releasing Rudi Johnson and their running game has not been effective all season. Their defense, which is what Marvin Lewis was renowned for could not stop the run or the pass. They did lose CB Deltha O'Neal to the Pats but young cornerbacks Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall have been inconsistant. I think the Bengals' downfall actually comes from the draft since 2003. 

2003- QB Carson Palmer- excellent pick by the Bengals as they finally got a franchise signal caller unlike Akili Smith and David Klinger. In my opinion, thats their best draft as they also got offensive linemen Eric Steinbach (now in Cleveland) and Scott Kooistra as well as WR Kelley Washington

2004- 1st round pick was a bust in Chris Perry who could not stay healthy and another one of the 1st round busts in Big 10 running backs. Their second pick, Keiwan Ratliff had 3 picks in their AFC Central Champion year in 2005 but no longer on the squad. They also drafted Madieu Williams, Robert Geathers, and Landon Johnson that season. But only Geathers and Perry remain on the squad.

2005- The start of the downfall as they drafted Odell Thurman and Chris Henry, both with huge baggages and suspensions to their resume. To make matters worse, their 1st rounder David Pollack retired with a career ending injury, which is upsetting since he was a great player coming out of Georgia.

2006- Jonathan Joseph
2007- Leon Hall
2008- Keith Rivers

Needs: I know its not the offseason yet. But they need to address their running back situation even though they did sign Cedric Benson. But that is more of a short term situation and there are running backs available in the draft such as James Davis of Clemson and Javon Ringer. If three running backs declare, you also have CJ Spiller, Chris Beanie Wells, and Knowshown Moreno. They also need to address their defense. Yes they invested in defense the last four drafts but they are thin at linebacker even though they drafted Keith Rivers. Once again is the Ocho Cinco situation distract them come offseason?

Reading the standings right now, there are four teams in the Big 12 south that are in the Top 10 in the polls with the Longhorns ranked #1, the Sooners at #4, the Red Raiders at #8, and the Cowboys at #9. All four teams have a combined record of 30-2 and are fighting for a spot to represent the south in the Big 12 Championship against most likely Missouri. Saturday Night's game in Lubbock, the western outpost of the Big 12, between Texas and Texas Tech could show whether the Longhorns are indeed #1 or the Air Raid Offense of Mike Leach's squad get their most important victory of the season as they have a brutal stretch of games coming up. For those four teams, they all have great quarterbacks and are among the leaders in scoring offense.

Rounding out the Big 12 South are Texas A&M and Baylor. The Aggies are coming off a win over Gene Chizik's Iowa State Cyclones by having their best offensive performace of the season. But they need to improve on defense if they have a shot at a bowl bid (even though thats a longshot considering they have Oklahoma and Texas left). Their next opponent is against Colorado who were destroyed by Missouri. Jerrod Johnson has done well at QB recently filling in for Stephen McGee. But its been a tough season transitioning from a power-running offense to a more pro-style offense Mike Sherman brings to College Station.

For Baylor, their 3-5 record does not fool anyone because they actually led Nebraska in Lincoln before losing late in the game. After a blowout loss to Wake Forest to start the season, they won two easy games against Northwestern State and Washington State. They played Connecticut tough in East Hartford losing by 3 but freshman QB Robert Griffin (no INTS this season so far) played well on under the national spotlight. Then in Big 12 play, they went 1-3 with one win coming against Iowa State. The Bears have a tough schedule with Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech. Right now the only winnable game the last four games is against the Aggies. But Baylor is rebuilding and they have a strong foundation for the future under head coach Art Briles.

Tough to do Big 12 south power rankings as well
1. Texas- Already beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The Texas Tech game huge for their National Title hopes.
2. Oklahoma- At #4, they need Texas to lose as well as Alabama and Penn State to fall into defeat.
3. Oklahoma State- Knocked out #3 Missouri and they nearly had a chance to beat Texas in one of their biggest games in years.
4. Texas Tech- Played a really weak schedule to begin the season and were losing to rival Texas A&M at one point. Best win so far came against Kansas. Huge game for Tech in Lubbock on Saturday night. But the last time they play an ABC game on Saturday night against a highly ranked opponent, they upset Oklahoma.
5. Baylor- Other than blowout losses to Wake and the Oklahoma institutions, they played well.
6. A&M- Bad start to begin the season. Began to play well but their defense needs help

Since their last winning season in 1997, the Orioles finally started to rebuild this offseason by trading their ace Erik Bedard to the Mariners for a bunch of prospects. Signs of change occurred when Andy McPhail took over. There is a reason for the demise of the Orioles since 1997 and one of them is they do not draft well. But the Orioles, though are not strong with the draft.

1999- They have four first rounders (including sandwich rounders)- Keith Reed (of Providence), Larry Bigbie, Richard Staal, and Mike Paradis.  Only one player I remembered, Bigbie played in the majors. None of these players are on the Orioles 40-man roster.

2000- A lot of misses in that year's draft. They picked Texas' flamethrower Beau Hale at 14. One spot ahead of Chase Utley. Other players passed on in round 1 are Sean Burnett, Chris Bootcheck, and 2006 World Series hero Adam Wainwright.

2001- A draft with a couple of solid like Joe Mauer, Mark Texiera, Bobby Crosby, Noah Lowry, and Jeremy Bonderman. But the Orioles drafted a pitcher by the name Chris Smith from Cumberland and a 2nd baseman Mike Fontenot. Reading Baseball America's prospect handbook, Chris Smith is out of baseball and Fontenot is on the Cubs.

2002- O's got a starter in Adam Loewen (1st of 2 Canadian pitchers picked in round 1). Time will tell if he would be a solid starter as fellow Canadian Jeff Francis helped the Rockies win the NL pennant and their opening day starter. He was hurt in most of 2007.

2003- They got a hit with Nick Markakis, who should be the O's lone representative in the All Star game this season.

2004- Selected Wayne Townsend, one of Rice's Big Three that won the College World Series that year and both sides did not come to terms. Townsend went back to the draft in 2005 and was selected by Tampa Bay. Has the roughest career of the three in the pros.

2005, 2006- Selected Brandon Snyder and Billy Rowell but they are still a year or two away from being a major contributor to the Orioles.

2007- Matt Wieters- On the final minute for draftees to come to terms, the Scott Boras client has been compared to Jason Varitek  who played for Georgia Tech. But this is Wieters first season in the minors so  hopefully they found a bat to the rebuilding lineup.

2008???- Need to address pitching as well as adding depth

A few years ago, the Astros farm system was ranked in the Top 10. They were the organization of the year back in 2001 by Baseball America. Mainly the success of the Astros farm system was the signing of draft and follow college players and being one of the first teams to tap the Venezuela market, which is full of talent. Players like Craig Biggio, Lance Berkman, Jason Lane, Hunter Pence, Roy Oswalt, and Brad Lidge were homegrown products. But in recent years, as the Astros tried to win a title, they sacrificed a lot of young talent for veteran players. Starting in 2004, the Astros signed two players with ties to the Houston area in Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens. 2004, the Astros made it to the NLCS only to lose to St. Louis. The next season with a veteran team, the Astros went to the postseason, again as a wildcard but were swept by the White Sox in the World Series. In 2006, Clemens was signed in midseason but missed the playoffs by one game as the team lacked offense. 2007, they are on pace for a sub-.500 record and I do not think they will make a huge run. 2007, they called up Hunter Pence and is currently having a strong Rookie campaign.

 The Astros' farm system is currently thin with top prospect Troy Patten about a year away from being in the big club. 2005 first rounder Brian Bogusevic looked like reach since he was a two-way player back in college. The top position player prospect now that Hunter Pence is in the big club is either J.R. Towles or Max Sapp, who are both catchers. They have traded young players for veterans and did not draft too well. In 2006, they traded SS Ben Zobrist and Mitch Talbot for Aubrey Huff, who did not do much for the Astros. In the offseason, they traded Jason Hirsh, their top pitching prospect at the time, Willy Taveras and Taylor Buchholz to Colorado for Jason Jennings (a Baylor product). Jennings has struggled this season. They signed two veterans for a lot of money, most notably Carlos Lee for $100 million. The other big signee was 40 year old Woody Williams, who is not a good fit at Minute Maid Park because he is a flyball pitcher. Both signings appear to cost them draft picks as they did not pick until round 3. With Mark Loretta still on the team and a questionable trade for Ty Wiggington, the management has to do a better job restocking the farm system.

Once again, the Boston Bruins fired another head coach. The underachieving Bruins, who were contenders for the playoffs with the signings of Zdeno Chara and a solid draft pick of Phil Kessel missed the playoffs again capped by a 1-10 finish. Dave Lewis, who was known to fill the huge shoes of legendary coach Scott Bowman in Detroit was let go by the GM signaling another unstable off-season for the black and gold.

Ever since the glory days of the Big Bad Bruins (when they last won the Stanley Cup), there seems to be as many head coaches for the Boston Bruins as the number of managers fired by Steinbrenner before Joe Torre. Since the last Stanley Cup win on Causeway Street, 16 head coaches were either let go or fired. The Bruins have gone through several notable moments that left them short of playoff glory: 1979, Too many on ice penalty in a crucial Game 7 in Montreal. The dealing with the Broad Street Bullies back in the mid-70's. The curse of Montreal that stung them until the last 1980's. The power failure at Boston Garden in Game 4 that led to the game being shift in Edmonton where they were destroyed 6-3. Another loss to the Gretzky-less Oilers in 1990 was the last time the B's made the playoffs. Other notable incidents were Ulf Samuelson'#### on Cam Neely, Steve Kasper's benching, of two star players, failure to make the Eastern Conference Finals (make it the second round as well) throughout the late 90's and the early 2000's, Ray Bourque's being traded to get his final chance at the cup, B's blowing a 3-1 series lead, and last but not least the Thorton trade which looked lopsided in favor of San Jose.  The next head coach of the Bruins needs to provide stability. It will not be easy with the Jacobs family still running the show in Beantown.

The Pirates are on their way for another losing season as they are in the bottom of the standings in a weak NL Central. Ever since the loss of Barry Bonds and Bobby Bo, the Pirates have 14 straight losing seasons heading for a 15th. There is one constant for the Pirates' misery. The draft.

I do know there were 1st round pitchers in the 15 year span. Kris Benson, Clint Johnston, Bobby Bradley, Jon VanBenschotten, Bryan Bullington, Paul Maholm, Sean Burnett, and Brad Lincoln. The notable exception was Neil Walker, a Pittsburgh-area native in 2004. The pitchers they drafted except for Kris Benson had little or no success in the majors. Benson, Bradley, Burnett, Lincoln, Bullington and VanBenschotten had arm problems in the past.

Starting with 1999, the Pirates drafted Bobby Bradley with the #8 pick. They missed out on Barry Zito who was the 9th overall pick and Ben Sheets who ended up at #10. Bradley was a high school pitcher while the next two picks came out of college.

In 2000, Burnett was picked and he is currently on the DL. 2000 was not a really strong draft especially in the first round.

In 2001, VanBenschotten was picked and was a two-way player in college. The adjustment was tough as he will make his debut against the White Sox. Notable names from the 2001 Draft that were picked after JVB were Kevin Youkilis, Jeremy Bonderman, David Wright, Bobby Crosby and Ryan Howard.

2002 was even worse as they picked another pitcher with the #1 pick as Bullington was drafted ahead of B.J. Upton, Prince Fielder, Jeff Francis, Nick Swisher, Joe Blanton, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Francoeur, Cole Hamels and Matt Cain in Round 1.

2003- Paul Maholm. He is one loss away from double digit losses for the season. He has the best record of all the 1st rounders.

2004 and 2005- Pirates chose a position player.

2006- Brad Lincoln was picked at #4 as a pitcher. He was a two-way player in college. Had arm trouble. Passed up Andrew Miller (signability) and Drew Stubbs

2007- Drafted another pitcher by the name of Dan Moskos. He has a good arm and looked to be another safe pick for the Pirates.

 

The first week of baseball has come to an end with some bizarre weather events. Snow postponed the New Hampshire Fisher Cats home opener in the minors. Lake effect snow in the Cleveland area postponed the entire 4-game series against the Seattle Mariners and they have to play a home series against the Angels in Milwaukee (since they have a retractable roof). Unseasonably cold temperatures have affected ballparks throughout most of the country (primarily east of the Continental Divide). The Red Sox-Rangers series have 1st pitch temperatures of 55, 38, and 48 degrees.  That's not in Boston, but in Arlington, Texas, where the temperatures this time of the year should be in the 70s. In Atlanta, the Mets-Braves series experience below average temperatures as well. (Thats also part of the reason why no one scored under par in the Masters  that weekend) Throughout the Midwest and the Northeast, chilly temperatures have led to slow starts to some of the best players, like Ryan Howard and Manny Ramirez (I believe both combine for zero homeruns). Yes, low wind chills have postponed the Tigers-Blue Jays game in Detroit as well. The only place on the east coast that is not affected by cold air last week, Miami (Gametime temperatures are in the 70s.

The Texas Rangers enter the 2007 season with a chance to win the AL West, which expects to be wide open and possibly the weakest division in the American League. So far, they have a slow start under new manager Ron Washington with an 0-3 record. They lost some key players to free agency, most notably Carlos Lee to instate rival Houston Astros and Gary Matthews Jr. to division rival Angels. Their big free agent signings are Eric Gagne, who is currently on the disabled list and Sammy Sosa, who is obviously past his prime. I am going to talk mostly about pitching, catching, and the outfield since the infield is all set with Blalock, Young, Kinsler, and Texieria.

Catcher: Gerald Laird- He is a good defensive catcher who now gets the full time job with the departure of Rod Barajas. Not a great hitter since he does not hit righties too well. Had a VORP of 12.2 last season but production was inflated due to his high average against left handers. Backup: Chris Stewart

Outfield: With the departure of Gary Matthews to the Angels, the outfield is questionable. Brad Wilkerson had a disappointing season in Texas suffering from injuries. Frank Catalanotto, a favorite of sabermetrics returns to Texas to fill in as the DH and sometimes left fielder has very good plate discipline but little pop. Kenny Lofton is a veteran who will fill in temporarily at center. No longer has the speed or range he used to have.  Nelson Cruz was one of the players traded along with Carlos Lee from the Brewers in the Francisco Cordero trade. Cruz is a good defender but hitting has to be proven. Of course, the big acquisition is the return of Sammy Sosa. His last season was a disappointment playing for the Orioles hitting only .220 with 14 homers. The Rangers outfield do not have the offensive production provided by former players Laynce Nix and Kevin Mench but they have the defense.

Starting Pitching: Pitching is still a question mark for the Rangers for years now. They signed Kevin Millwood to a large contract after leading the league in ERA. Predictably, his ERA rise because of the Arlington effect, but his record is better than in Cleveland because of better offensive production. Viciente Padilla is the #2 starter who needs to throw strikes and getting ahead of pitches to do well in the ballpark. Brandon McCarthy is the #3 starter acquired for John Danks, which broke up the heralded and disappointing DVD trio (more on that). #4 is Robinson Tejada, who will start in the home opener against the Red Sox. He was signed as a free agent last year but he needs to show good command to be consistant. The number 5 starter is between Kameron Loe, Bruce Chen, and Mike Wood. Chen is on his 8th or 9th MLB team. Wood was a former Royal pitcher. Loe had a decent 2005 season but a disappointing 2006 campaign.

The Bullpen: A great hitter park like Arlington needs a strong bullpen and players like Joaquin Benoit, Scott Feldman, Ron Mahay, and CJ Wilson provide help in the 7th and 8th inning. Otsuka is currently the closer until Gagne returns from injury. This Rangers bullpen could be the best in the AL West.

 PROSPECTS:

1. Eric Hurley- P

2. John Mayberry, Jr. OF

3. Thomas Diamond (out for 2007), P

4.  Edinson Volquez, P

5.  Joaquin Arias, SS

 

 

The Boston Red Sox have recently sent their former 1st round pick and closer of the future Craig Hansen to Triple-A Pawtucket after posting an ERA of 15 in spring training. It is another sign of the ups and downs of Hansen's career. A player who was once projected as the Top 5 pick out of St. John's in the 2005 Draft fell to the Red Sox in the 20s because of signability issues (His hometown team, the Yankees passed up on him and instead drafted C.J Henry who was traded for Bobby Abreu the following year). He was called up to the big leagues late in 2005 due to the struggles of Keith Foulke. In 2006, he struggled in his second year allowing 19 earned runs in the last 18 innings. His stuff rating at the end of the year was a -4 with a VORP at -6, and a WXRL of -0.68 (possibly the difference between 2nd and 3rd place) The stuff was not the same even in spring training as he is now trying to regain command. The Red Sox should not rush him back since they need to develop him and the Red Sox have signed a good number of free agents to shore up the bullpen. 

 PECOTA PROJECTIONS (2007)

ERA- 5.23, WHIP- 1.55, .325 BABIP
 

I believe the Red Sox should not give up on Hansen. However, he might as well have to spend most of the year at Triple-A . Let the Sox brass develop him instead of putting him between Pawtucket and if his slider comes back and his stuff recovers to 2005 - early 2006 form, he should return to the big leagues sometime by the end of the season

The Raiders have their worst season in franchise history. They were shut out in two Monday Night Football games. Lost to the lowly Browns and Texans and they did not win a single road game. Statisically, they have one of the worst offenses in football history ranked last in total yards and points. The defense was not that bad but on offense, they have a terrible offensive line and a very shaky QB situation. This offseason, they signed Dominic Rhodes at running back, Jeremy Newberry at lineman, and Justin Griffith at fullback. The quarterback depth chart has Andrew Walter, Josh Booty (former Marlins infield prospect and LSU QB) so far. Wide Receiver is a mess with two unhappy players in Randy Moss and Jerry Porter. Both asked for a trade. The signing of Rhodes at tailback would mean a two-RB system with Lamont Jordan still on the team. The Raiders have the #1 overall pick this upcoming draft and they could go for a wideout or quarterback.

Possible Picks

Calvin Johnson-WR- Georgia Tech

By far the most NFL ready. Could make big catches, causes matchup problems, and played his entire college career with a mediocre QB. Possibly the best wide receiver prospect in years.

JaMarcus Russell- QB- LSU

He is on the top of several Mock Drafts. Has a strong arm which fits Al Davis' profile. A physical freak at 6'5" 265 pounds. A Daunte Culpepper-like comparisons. Does not have the intangibles to start immediately since his tools are raw. Biggest weakness is this is a high risk, high reward pick

Brady Quinn- QB- ND

Quinn plays for the coach who turned a 2nd day pick to Super Bowl MVP and future Hall of Famer. Quinn is about as ready for the NFL as any QB in the draft. He does struggle in big games (ex. bowl games, Michigan game last season) but has done well under pressure (UCLA game for example). Has a good arm and great intangibles.

Wild Cards- (Remember, this is Al Davis)- Joe Thomas (OL- Wisconsin), Jammal Anderson (DE- Arkansas), Gaines Adams (DE- Clemson)

 If Calvin Johnson is selected, the Raiders could find a QB either through the draft, trade, or free agent acquisition.

Other QBs 

Drew Stanton (Michigan State- QB)- Inconsistant at times for a program that seems to have great starts and bad finishes. Does buckle under pressure. Has good size and excellent arm strength. He should be a second round pick but a reach at 33 as the Raiders need to address the O-line

Trent Edwards (Stanford- QB)- Another inconsistant QB with an injury history. Played for a weak team with injuries at wideout and little running game. May be compared to Jay Cutler in terms of player talent surrounding the quarterback. A risky pick given the fact Andrew Walter had the same situation back at Arizona State.

Troy Smith- (Ohio State- QB)- Yes, his stock has dropped a bit. Although he has a good arm and a mobile QB, he may have to wait a few seasons to be a full time starter

Jordan Palmer (UTEP- QB) - His numbers were down after his junior campaign. Has a strong arm but is inconsitant. Brother is Bengals QB Carson Palmer

Tyler Palko (Pitt- QB)- Was a huge recruit for the Pitt Panthers but had some ups and downs in his college career. A left-handed QB and Al Davis, even though Ken Stabler was the QB in the 70s does not like drafting left handers especially he passed up on Matt Leinart.

Projections

Order of Finish 

East (The Status Quo will be broken soon)

Red Sox

Yankees

Blue Jays

Orioles

Devil Rays

Central (Toughest Division from top to bottom)

Tigers

White Sox

Twins,

Indians

Royals

West (Even the M's have a shot in this otherwise weak division)

Angels

Rangers

A's

Mariners

Wild Card- Yankees

 Awards

MVP- David Ortiz

Cy Young- Roy Halladay

Rookie of the Year- Alex Gordan or Delmon Young

Batting Champion- Joe Mauer

HR Leader- David Ortiz

RBI Leader- Vladimir Guerrero

Comeback Player of the Year- Bartolo Colon or Zach Greinke

Hits Leader- Derek Jeter

Stolen Base Leaders- This is not the NL. Best guess is Scott Posednik (CWS) 

Wins Leader-  Dice-K 

ERA Champ- Roy Halladay

Strikeout Leader- Johan Santana

Saves Leader- Joe Nathan

Managers who may get the pink slip

Mike Hargrove (SEA)- Another last place finish would mean change in the dugout

Eric Wedge (CLE)- After losing 5 of 6 to end the 2005 season which knocked them off the postseason, '06 was a huge disappointment. Another season of disappointment with young talent heading up to the majors could mean the end for Wedge. 

GM on the Hot Seat- Bill Bavasi (SEA)- Could have drafted Ryan Zimmerman or Ryan Braun in 2005 Draft instead of spending on Adrian Beltre. Signed mid-level free agents including this offseason and farm system lacks depth beyond top prospects Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and Brandon Morrow

Thank you for your visit and your time for reading my blog. I hope you will find this interesting and thoughtful so please comment and offer suggestions. I plan this to look mainly at baseball in a statistical point of view. At times, I will use some emotions of a baseball fan. I am an electrical engineering major at Boston University with additional interest in several other fields, particularly in mathematics, history, geography, and  general physics. At times, I will comment on the Boston Celtics, college and professional football, and local college sports, but baseball remains a huge interest for me. So, welcome and enjoy.