As is the case every year, there has been an abundant amount of words spent on how difficult this year’s U.S. Open will prove to be. Some are calling this year’s site, the Oakmont Country Club, the toughest Open venue there is, which would be hard to believe after Winged Foot last year, and Pinehurst, Shinnecock, and Bethpage Black in recent years. But this year, the source of the carnage, if there is indeed any, will be of a different nature. At 7,230 yards, Oakmont is not one of the longer U.S. Open venues. In fact, the course is only slightly over 300 yards longer than when the first Open was held there in 1927. Granted, at par 70, it lends itself naturally to scores over par, but with the length being what it is, the major hurdles this week will come from on and around the greens. In fact, it’s been reported that greens will vary greatly in their speed (from 11.5 up to 15 on the stimpmeter) due to elevation and how much sun and wind they are objected to based on where they are located on the course. Not to mention the severe undulations that exist on nearly every green. While the two par fives on the course both measure over 600 yards and the 288-yard par 3 eighth hole is a bit ridiculous, it also has four par fours under 400 yards, almost unheard of by today’s standards. So it’s not the overall length of the course that will cause the heartache, it’s the greens, and three-putts and even four-putts may be commonplace.

All of this may add up to what a lot of golf fans have been waiting for; something that opens up the field to everybody, even the short hitters. Whether this actually plays out is anybody’s guess, and make no mistake, longer hitters will always have an advantage. Provided they can place it where they need to be. But this course may level the playing field somewhat. Figuratively speaking, of course.

Without further ado, here is who I think we’ll be watching come the weekend of the 107th U.S. Open.

Is it their time/Are they ready?

-Adam Scott-Greatness has been predicted and expected for this Aussie for several years. And those expectations got even greater after he won the 2004 Player’s Championship. His current driving accuracy stats (59.65% of fairways hit, 109th on tour) could be his undoing this week. But if he can find a way to maneuver his way around Oakmont, his putting (currently 10th on tour) could secure his first major. At just 26, is he ready? Perhaps.

-Luke Donald-His driving distance is nothing to write home to England about (159th), but his accuracy is (21st). This week, that’s a combination that may bode very well for the 29-year old. He also has five top-ten finishes in 13 events this year, and is ranked ninth in the world. He may be jumping up a bit after this weekend, if he has the maturity to be patient.

-Sergio Garcia-Believe it or not, Sergio is 27th in putting this year. He has long had a tee-to-green game rivaling anyone’s, but it’s been his putter which has let him down many times. Unfotunately, his driving accuracy is way down this year, as he currently ranks 161st on tour. But this week, he may be able to get around that. With Oakmont not being beastly long, as I mentioned, he can probably get away with hitting a fairway wood or long iron off the tee on many holes. If he has the mental discipline to do so. If he can keep it in the short stuff, I like his chances. A lot.

Is it now or never? These players have not won a major, and time is running out . . .

-Stewart Cink-Had a nice run at the Open from ’98-01, including three top tens. And other than his driving accuracy this season, his stats are all pretty good (33rd in both putting and greens in regulation this season). Find a way to keep it in the short grass, Stewart. Many of us are pulling for you. You’ve had many a close call in majors before, and we’d like to see you win one.

-Padraig Harrington-Hard to believe he is 36 already. Like Cink, he has hung around long enough to win a major on more than one occasion, but it just hasn’t happened for him yet. If not for his disastrous finish last year, he may be the defending champion. He has the game, and if he can put the close-but-no-cigars out of his mind long enough, which is much easier said than done, he could very well be your 2007 U.S. Open winner.

-Colin Montgemerie-No one will dispute the fact that Monty has the game. His achievements are well-chronicled. His best chance may have come last year. After hitting a near-perfect drive on the final hole, he had a mid iron into the green. Always a strong iron player, he hit the one shot that he no doubt will think about for the rest of his life if he never wins a major. His short-and-right second shot into thick rough led to a double-bogey, when a par would have won and a bogey would have put him in a playoff. Monty has had one of the world’s most well-rounded, and best, games for a long time. But he’ll be 44 later in the month, and the clock is ticking on his elusive first major victory. It would be a shame if he never wins one. It could very well be now or never for Colin.

Do no be surprised, even a little, ‘cause you heard it here first, if . . .

-Steve Stricker wins. There are certain players who always seem to show up in tournaments like the U.S. Open and the PGA Championship. Players who have a solid game and the mindset to compete in those; Payne Stewart, Lee Janzen, Corey Pavin, etc. Players who may not be much of a factor at other majors, but have the formula to fair well in certain venues like the two I mentioned. They hit fairways, hit greens, and make a few putts. In the late ‘90s, Stricker was becoming one of those, and appeared on the doorstep of the elite players’ home. He knocked a few times, but couldn’t get in. He finished fifth at the U.S. Open in both ‘98 and ’99, and second in the PGA in ’98. Great things were on the horizon. But as we all know, golf is one of the most fickle of sports. He did win the Accenture Match Play title in ’01, and finished tenth at the Masters the same year. But then, for whatever reason, he fell on hard times for the next few years. In 2005, he lost his fully-exempt card for the first time since ’97 after finishing outside the top 150 on the money list for the third straight year. But in ’06, he was back, winning comeback player of the year award. He’s back even farther now, and up to 22nd in the world rankings. Look for him to be a major factor this week. And don’t be surprised if he’s holding the trophy on Sunday.

-K.J. Choi wins. Another player who flies a little under the radar, but always seems to show up in major championships. He’s got the game for this layout. And his victory at the Memorial a couple weeks ago, where he came from five shots down at the start of the final round, showed a stalker’s mentality that I don’t think he knew he had. But he does. And he’s mentally strong enough to win this week.

Maybe someday, but not just yet

-Aaron Baddeley, Paul Casey, Charles Howell III, and Trevor Immelman-I would be surprised if all of these don’t win a major by the time they’re done. But the U.S. Open is as much of a mental test as it is about talent. Each of these are stellar shotmakers, and players on the rise. They will be a factor in this tournament for years to come. Perhaps as soon as next year. But not quite yet.

The Favorites

-Tiger Woods-If I need to expound on this, you’ve clicked on a golf blog by mistake. And it would be hard for you to explain why you’ve read this far.

-Phil Mickelson-Perhaps his name should be a question rather than a statement. Yes, I know his wrist injury will be a factor. But it may be a blessing in disguise. He may be forced to swing less than full from the tee with his driver, which may in turn put him in the fairway more often. If that’s the case, he would have longer shots to the greens, to be sure. But if he can stay out of the brutal rough, he could very well be in the mix on Sunday afternoon. How ironic would it be that he wins the U.S. Open at the place he first injured the wrist while practicing for this tourney a few weeks ago?

-Jim Furyk-He seems to have the game that fits this course perfectly, for what it’s worth. He’s won it before, and has all the prerequisites required of an Open champ. A lot of smart money is on him this week, and I can’t say I disagree much. As this Open starts, he’s about as steady and solid as anyone in the field.

-Vijay Singh-Just about the time people forget about him, he shows us why we shouldn’t. Winner of three majors in his career, it doesn’t appear that his game has tailed off any, even well into his 40s. He’s putting as well as he has in a long time, which could be a very scary thing for the rest of the field.

My pick for this year’s champion? Sergio Garcia. It seems like he’s older than 27, since he’s been a factor in majors for quite awhile now. Which has given him invaluable experience. And I think his mental game, which is what ultimately determines almost every U.S. Open winner, has caught up with his ability. He has all the tools to win. Is he ready? Yes, he is. And this could be the start of something big. Really big.

Thanks for taking the time to read.