With the All-Star break upon us I believe I am legally obligated to make my predictions for the rest of the season, remark on all of the giant trades and otherwise say a whole lot of stuff people will disagree with. These people are then legally bound to call me an ####, question my sanity and accuse me of using drugs. Who am I to boldly scoff in the face of the law. So here we go.
(Due to my longwindedness, I've bolded each topic making it easy to skip any prattle you don't give a rat's #### in the wind about)
Let's begin with the major trades and how they are going to work out.
Shaq to Pheonix - Whether or not this trade works out, it will be very interesting to watch Shaq try to keep up with Nash, but if you were to ask me, I'd say I think this is going to hurt Pheonix more than helps it. Why? Because the playing styles do not match. Remember when Memphis was a playoff team instead of a joke. They got there with an offense set up around Pau Gasol who is a half court player. When they tried to go to a run and gun style, Pau (although his numbers were still good) was no where near as effective. This is probably going to happen here and on a couple of major fronts. The most obvious is that Shaq is too old and too slow to run, run, run. But the second has far more to do with Steve Nash. Nash is not a half-court, set offsense type guard. Sure, he can run the pick and roll with the best of them, but he is at his best and most creative in the open court and with Shaq in the mix, they are going to become a far more half-court based team. I think Nash will struggle if he has to be more disicplined. Shaq and Nash simply are not suited to play with each other. Of course there is the obvious upside of having Shaq in his defense and rebounding, except that Marion is a better rebounder than Shaq and guys like Duncan and Boozer are quick or fundamentally sound enough to exploit Shaq's lack of lateral movement. A better move for the Suns would have been to try and get Elton Brand from Golden State. But I could be wrong and if I am, then yeah for Pheonix.
Gasol to the Lakers - This, in my opinion makes the Lakers the team to beat in the West, but what is most intriguing here is that everyone thinks that Memphis got completely hosed and I disagree. Gasol was not happy in Memphis and it showed in his game. They simply had to move him. So, why not trade to Chicago who could give them more players? The reason, Marc Gasol, Pau's younger brother and the MVP of the Spanish league. Chicago couldn't offer him. I know he was a second round pick and who knows when he'll come to the NBA, but some scouts have said he's better than his brother. Throw in Javaris Crittenton, a potentially excellent point/shooting guard who can give them some depth and the cap space that will be opened up after Kwame's nine million dollar contract runs out at the end of the season and Memphis's future isn't all that bad, (assuming Marc can make the transition from Europe to the NBA). I still would have rather have had Pau go to Chicago, but that's mostly because I hate the Lakers.
Why Kidd should go to Dallas - I know it doesn't make much sense to trade an up and coming speedy point guard, multiple veterns, a three point threat and a pretty decent big man for an old, jaded, slow point guard, who can't shoot and has never won a championship, but it needs to be done. Why? Because Kidd possesses one thing all those other guys don't have, a set off nuts the size of your head. Dallas's biggest biggest problem is not their talent or the abiltiy of the team to work together. It is their heads. They don't have that killer instinct you need to win and Dirk is not going to develop it. Kidd gives them that ruthlessness, that lust to go for the throat when their enemy is down. And when you think about it, it's not a bad trade for Dallas. They lose a decent point guard, but get a better one. George and Stackhouse are old role players, etc. . . and they don't have to give up any of their three best players; Dirk, Terry and Howard. Trust me, if they don't make the trade they'll make an early playoff exit again. They could get the the Western Conference finals and maybe, if they are really lucky, to the finals, with him. Could they win the championship? Anything is possible, but don't bet on it.
The long-term effects of these trades and the Western Conference - No matter how you look at it, the Shaq trade in Pheonix will leave the Suns a lottery team in two years. Expect them to be in rebuilding mold soon. Dallas will have to do the same thing in the next year or two despite the results of the Kidd trade. If they get him, they'll have to rebuild in two years. If they don't they'll blow the team up this year or next. The Lakers appear to be the new powerhouse in the West and for the next 4 years are going to be scary good. In three years the top five teams in the West will be L.A., Utah, Portland, New Orleans, Spurs. (S.A. is here because of Pop.)
The West wins the All-Star Game. No one cares
MVP - Kobe: Although I hate to say it, Kobe wll probably be this year's MVP. His Lakers are serious title contenders, they're exceding expectations and he's finally seeming to have grown up and become a leader instead of a scorer. His points are down, as are his shots, but the offense is not being so bogged down with him handling the ball too much and he's been playing steller defense because he doesn't concentrate so much on offense.
Runners up -
LeBron James - James's numbers are as good as there is and at such a young age he already has the maturity and knowledge to know what his team needs and then he gives it. He wants his teamates involved and is one of the best passing forwards in the game. He's become clutch and his free throw shooting is somewhat improved, but he still is a liability on defense (due not to his inablility to play defense (he locked up Kobe earlier in the year) but because he has to focus so much on offense). He's also really young and will probably win an MVP later on so those who vote for this award will be less likely to vote for him over Kobe.
Kevin Garnett - Garnett should probably get it because of how he is the anchor for the Celtics, but his numbers are down and the C's are still winning in his absence. Plus, he's already got an MVP trophy which will probably sway a few voters away from him.
Coach of the Year- Doc Rivers - It's kind of a no brainer. He's got the best team in the league and is making three super stars work together.
Runners up - Byron Scott - In all reality, he should be the coach of the year, but he has two things working against him. He doesn't coach in Boston and his Hornets won't even be the best team in the West. It is a shame that people don't see that Doc's ability to keep his superstars playing together has to do more with Garnett's attitude and lack of ego than anything else.
Nate McMillan - Portland's run a month ago speaks volumes about their coach. They have exceded expectations further than any other team (they were figured to maybe win 25-30 games) and for such a young team they are poised. It's a shame that Portland is in the West, because if they played in the East they'd be the #3 seed (they'd have more wins) instead of a lottery team and McMillian would get serious consideration.
Sixth-Man - Manu Ginobli - Just because I can't spell his name doesn't mean he won't win it. Everyone loves Manu, (except everyone who doesn't like the Spurs)
Runner up ; Kyle Korver - I know he won't win it, or probably even get any votes, but he is one of the main reasons Utah is the hottest team in the league. (They are 17-3 since he came on board. They were 16-16 when they traded for him) No bench player in the league is more important to their team right now than Kyle Korver. He should win this.
Most-Improved Player - Dwight Howard - He's a superstar now. He wasn't last year.
Runner up - Ronnie Brewer - He went from a bench warmer to the starting two guard on one of the best teams in the league. His minutes are doubled and his production has tripled. He won't win the award because he plays in Utah and Howard's improvement has been advertised much more.
Defense Player of the Year - Kevin Garnett - He's holding down the league's best defense.
Runner up - Marcus Camby - How can the league's best defender be on such a cruddy defensive team. He can't, so he won't win that honor again.
Rookie of the Year -Kevin Durant - No rookie even comes to his production, but, of course, no rookie shoots as much, gets as much time, touches the ball as often or has been so hyped.
Runner up - Al Harford - Yeah, let's put him as the runner up. Why not?
Most surprising good team - Hornets - Most of us figured them to be near the bottom of the playoff picture. No one expected them to be this good. I still can't quite grasp it.
Runners up - Portland - Much better than advertised,
Most Disappointing Team - Chicago - I had them picked as the third seed in the East. Holy #### was I wrong.
Runner up: Miami - Yeah, i figured they'd be bad, but this bad?
Playoffs
West
1. Lakers - With Gasol, Bynum, and Odom, they have a top three front court in the league. With Kobe and Fisher, they have a top three backcourt . Their bench is also pretty dang good.
2. Spurs - Expect San Antonio to steam roll the competition after the All-Star break. Their Rodeo Road Trip was a success and the time off should allow them to heal.
3. Hornets - I'm going out on a limb and expecting them to stay healthy. If they do, they'll be as dangerous as any team out there. However they are young and are bound to drop a couple games they shouldn't and will get bumped out of first place.
4. Jazz - The best thing that could have happened for Utah (aside from picking up Kyle Korver) was Deron Williams getting snubbed at the All-Star game. Dude's been on a tear and Utah will continue to thrive while he's got a chip on his shoulder.
5. Mavericks - Whether or not they pick up Kidd, the West is just too tight. If they don't get Kidd, they'll slip. If they pick up Kidd, they'll lose a couple games in the transition. In the West that will drop you a couple spots.
6. Suns- They're 3-2 since the trade but one was a one point win at home against a depleted Washington. They could have easily been 2-3 or worse since the trade. You can't afford to do that in the West. Shaq's transition into the team will also cost them a game or two and who knows if two diametrically oppossed playing styles (Nash and Shaq) can work together.
7. Rockets - I think they're finally hitting their stride and have figured out the new offense. Now if McGrady could just stay healthy . . .
8. Nuggets - It's hard to imagine a team with two of the four best scorers in the league and the leagues best shot blocker not making the playoffs, so here are the Nuggets, just scraping in past the Warriors by a game.
Almost-rans - Golden State -The Warriors will be 7-10 games above .500 and not make the playoff. Portland - They will finish with a record of 43-39 and are the tenth seed. Wow!
1st round
Lakers v Nuggets - Lakers in six games, but man alive will they be great games.
Spurs v Rockets - Spurs in seven. McGrady fails to make it past the first round again.
Hornets v. Suns - The Hornets have the Suns number. New Orlean in six.
Jazz v Mavericks - If Kidd is there, Dallas in seven. If not Utah in six. We'll say Utah because Kidd probably won't be traded.
2nd round
Lakers v Jazz - Utah cannot guard this team, Lakers in five.
Spurs v Hornets - Experience will win. Spurs in six.
3rd round
Lakers v Spurs - Timmy plays a stellar series but cannot hold the fort. Lakers in seven.
East
1. Boston - It's a no brainer. Oh, yeah and their bench is not too shabby
2. Detroit - Still the team to beat in the East. Their bench is getting better and better. They just don't have the best record.
3. Orlando - They aren't really the third best team in the East, that's Cleveland, but as of right now they are three games ahead of Cleveland and Cleveland won't quite overtake them.
4. Toronto - They're the best team no one is talking about.
5. Cleveland - With LeBron they are the third best team in the East. With out him, they might as well be Miami. LeBron will miss another game for a sprained something and it will cost them two seeds and homecourt in the first round.
6. Hawks - Bibby will give this team some leadership and experience, which might make them halfway decent on the road.
7. 76ers - I keep telling people they're better than they look. The new A.I. is a Scottie Pippen wanna be, Andre Miller is an underrated point guard and Dalembert is a beast. They will sneak into the playoff and everyone will be stunned.
8. Washington - They're a lot better than this, but injuries to Caron Butler are going to kill them. Luckily they're in the East and can afford that. If Gilbert comes back, he's going to put a cramp in their sytle and mess up not only the offense but their defense. They need to trade him for Elton Brand.
Also Rans - New Jersey - How quickly the mighty have fallen. With or without Kidd, they're going to free fall. That's what they get for giving Carter twice what he's worth.
Bulls - They just are not going to be able to overcome their atrocious start with this mediocre play.
1st round
Boston v. Washington - Assuming Washington is healthy by then, this will be a decent series (i.e close games) but Boston wins in five.
Detroit v. Philidelphia - Detroit will manhandle the overachieving 76ers in four games.
Orlando v. Atlanta - Orlando isn't as good as their record and Atlanta is probably better. This has upset written all over it. Atlanta in six.
Toronto and Cleveland - Toronto is the better team and has homecourt advantage. They should win it. Unfortunately for the Raptors, Lebron won't allow it. Cleveland in six.
2nd round
Boston v Cleveland - LeBron v Pierce should be good and Lebron will win that matchup. Unfortunately for the Calves that's the only thing they'll win. Boston in five.
Detroit v Atlanta - Atlanta's luck is going to run out. Oh yeah, and Detroit is really good. Detroit in five.
3rd round
Detroit v. Boston - No one is surprised by the matchup. What will surprise people is when Boston's bench out does Detroit's and Boston wins this in six games. Detroit blows up their roster during the offseason as a result.
Finals
Celtics v Lakers - It's like the 80's all over again. The Lakers will lose the first game in Boston and then win the second and their first game in L.A, putting them up 2-1. At this point, however, fatigue is going to catch up with them after battling in the extremely difficult west. Boston takes the next game, loses the next and then forces a game seven. It is close until the last few minutes of the fourth when Boston pulls away and wins by five. The final score is 102-107. Garnett is named finals MVP.