Well, here we are yet again, another bowl season and yet again we find the vast majority of Big Ten teams heading to the bowl games. This year the Big Ten is sending not one, but two teams the BCS bowls. Of course the Big 12 and the SEC are also sending multiple teams each to the BCS games also.
Let’s get this party started by looking at the bowl games that really count this year, the games in which Big Ten programs are playing. The National Championship game is nice and all and it should even be entertaining. Just seeing Oklahoma play against a team that does have a defense will be interesting actually. Other than that though, does anyone here really want to watch Alabama whoop up on Utah? How about watching Tulsa and Ball State tangling, or dancing, or whatever it is they do? Texas tech v. ole Miss will be a blow-out and Va. Tech and Cincinnati? I mean does anyone except the players from those two schools really care? I know, some do care and I understand that.
No sports fans, the games that will be much more interesting to watch will be the games in which there is a Big Ten representative playing.
Here is a quick breakdown:
01/05 – Texas v. Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl – the line is Texas -10.5 01/01 – USC v. Penn State in the Rose Bowl – the line is USC -10.5
01/01 – Georgia v. Michigan State in the Cap. 1 bowl – the line is Ga. -7
01/01 – S. Carolina v. Iowa in the Outback – the line is Iowa -3 1/2
12/31 – Kansas v. Minnesota in the insight Bowl – the line is Kansas-10
12/29 – Missouri v. N. W. in the Alamo Bowl – the line is Missouri -13.5
12/27 – Florida St. v. Wisconsin in the Champ Sports bowl – the line is FSU -5
It should be noted that all Big Ten teams are considered away teams for the bowl games.
I point out the lines to show that only one Big Ten team is favored this bowl season. In the games in which we have ranked teams involved, the Big Ten team is ranked lower than each of their opposing teams, at least in the BCS rankings.
This tells us that the Big Ten teams are picked to lose 6 of their 7 games this bowl season, and, according to the professionals in the business, the Big Ten teams are heavy to fairly heavy underdogs in all but one of their games.
I submit however that the odds-makers may be drinking just a bit too much of the SEC and Big 12 cool-aid this year though and the intent of this article is to explain to you why I believe this to be the case. Thus comes the long of it:
For one thing, because the Big Ten is sending some quality teams into games in which they are heavy underdogs, the Big Ten teams just have more reason to to be competitive. I actually believe that several of the favored teams will be of the opinion that all they really have to do is show up to win their games against their Big Ten opponents, especially the teams playing in the first two games reviewed below:
Texas v. OhioState:
We will start at the top, with the Texas, Ohio State Fiesta Bowl. Texas certainly deserves to be at the Fiesta Bowl, if not in the National Championship game. Remember they did beat Oklahoma and, if not for a last minute touchdown scored by Texas Tech, the Longhorns would be in the NC game. Texas should be heavily favored against any two-loss team, and they are.
Of course we have to look at the two losses that Ohio State had also before we reach any foregone conclusions. Ohio State got beat badly at USC early in the year when Ohio State was without their star running back and before Mr. Pryor was playing consistently. Can two people make a difference? I don’t know the answer to that one for sure but I can tell you that with both Pryor and Wells in the offensive backfield Ohio State is a different team.
In looking at the Penn State – Ohio State game, both teams played that game so close to the vest that it simply came down to who made a mistake first. Unfortunately for Ohio State, the freshmen quarterback, the aforementioned Terrelle Pryor, made that mistake and Penn State capitalized for the win.
Ohio State and Mr. Sweater-vest knows that they cannot play this bowl game close to the vest and expect to compete for any length of time against Texas. Texas has the offensive weapons that will score, sooner if not later. This Ohio State team though is not the same team that played either USC or Penn State. Pryor will have twice as much playing time and experience as he had when he played against Penn State and Wells will be 100 %. That will provide Ohio State with a running attack and the running threat on every down.
Both Ohio State and Texas have had very good seasons against some good opponents. In fact the opponents of both teams sport an impressive 69 percent winning percentage. Both teams played against numerous bowl teams this year.
After meandering their way through their respective schedules, the Ohio State defense ranks 9th in the nation in points allowed, 19th in total yards allowed per game and 25th in passing yards allowed. Conversely, Texas ranks 24th in total points allowed but 5th against the rush and 229th against the passing game.
The difference in this game will be the play of Terrelle Pryor. Pryor has to put some zip on the ball when he throws it. It seems that Pryor throws his passes with a bit too much touch sometimes, lobbing it even on the long throws. As little respect as the Texas defensive backfield might deserve this year, their backers are quick. If Pryor lobs the ball he could have a couple picked off. If Pryor comes out moving the ball through the air effectively they can use a successful passing attack to loosen up the Texas linebackers. If Coach Tressel somehow misses the stats though regarding the Texas run defense and thinks he is going to have Beanie Wells rush 40 times this game it could get ugly.
I do know however that Jim Tressel is nobody’s dummy. He has known for a couple weeks now that the Texas defense thinks run first and then gets over everything they give up through the air. This is Pryor’s opportunity to shine and this young man wants to impress everyone more than anything else in the world. Pryor is still very young and he will make mistakes. Pryor will be the difference-maker in this game, without a doubt. If Pryor is on and makes very few mistakes, Texas, and the rest of the college football world for that matter, could be in for a very abrupt surprise.
Additionally, one must consider the fact that Texas believes they were #### out of the shot at the NC, and many fans join them in that thinking. The Texas players know the point spread and I am sure that they feel that they only have to show up to win this game convincinlgy. I just do not believe that is going to happen though.
Pryor is the wild card in this game. If he passes accurately and runs decidedly when he has the opening, Ohio State just might pull off the shocker and knock the Big 12 down a few rungs on the conference ladder. Besides that, they aren’t playing against an SEC team so Ohio State should be good to go. I have faith in young Mr. Pryor. It is time for Ohio State to shine!!!
My Fearless prediction – Texas 24 OhioState 27.
USC v. PennState:
Again we see a Big Ten team at 10.5 point underdogs. I had been laughing the last few weeks of the regular season listening to the so-called professionals saying on air words to the effect of “Who really wants to play USC at this point in the season?”
I can answer that question. Penn State wants USC and they have wanted USC since the Nits clobbered Oregon State. The worst thing that could have happened to Penn State was Oregon State beating USC. Luckily, Oregon came through for us and beat Oregon State at the end of the regular season, sending USC to the Rose Bowl.
Playing Oregon State again in the Rose bowl could have only been a lose/lose situation for Penn State. The best thing that could have happened is that Penn State trounced Oregon State again and then everybody just says that yes, Penn State is still better than Oregon State. If the game is close or, if (heaven forbid) Oregon State would have pulled off the upset, then Penn State would have lost any ground that the Big Ten might have made up this past year.
Playing against USC however provides Penn State with the opportunity to be in a win/win situation while USC is in a lose/lose situation. If Penn State wins or even keeps the game respectably close, then Penn State wins some respect for both themselves and the Big Ten while USC loses a bit because all the pundits are saying how great this USC team is. Even if USC blows Penn State out, the experts would simply indicate that they are not surprised and then go on with life.
Don’t get me wrong here, USC is a great team. They had better be a great team actually, considering the fact that they have been getting twice as many 5 star recruits than any other College Football program over the course of the last five plus years. My wife, who doesn't know one end of the football from the other would have easily been able to put together unbeaten seasons back to back to back with this group kids if she had just told the players to go out and do what they want to do. In fact how Pete Carroll can justify losing even one game every year to any other team simply amazes me, but his team has proven to be fairly adept at losing games they aren’t supposed to lose.
USC is now the one however that is, to some extent, in a lose/lose situation. Because USC is so well liked by the oundits, If Penn State comes out and keeps the game close or pulls off the “upset”, then everyone says what a down year the PAC 10 had and how the entire conference really sucks, which is actually true of course for the most part this past year with the notable exception of USC. Even if USC were to win convincingly they do not win many points or make a case for “We should have been in the NC game” by beating Penn State because the perception is that Penn State is nothing special. I personally like it that way.
What we really have here is a Penn State team that has, by many measures, over-achieved this year. Everyone knew their offensive line would be very good and their core receivers were excellent coming into the year, but the quarterback, running back, defensive line and linebackers were a question mark for those that knew this team. Penn State lost three defensive linemen from last year, two All American Linebackers, a very good quarterback and running back. What’s more is their defense was not only untested, but very young with the exception of the defensive backfield.
Both teams have a multitude of weapons on offense. The defenses of these two clubs though are both outstanding, with the USC defense proving to be exceptionally strong. Both defenses have basically shut everyone down with one or two exceptions. Of course we must look to the schedules to see who each team has actually shut down.
These two teams have played throughout their schedule with strikingly similar results. Penn State has played against teams that are currently sporting a 71 and 72 overall record. It is actually pretty bad to have a schedule that has posted an overall losing record, even if it is by a very slight margin. USC’s opponents have gone 70 and 76 this year, which is even worse of course. Penn State has played against 6 teams with a winning record and USC has played against 5 teams with a winning record plus Notre Dame, who finished their regular season going 6 and 6.
Their respective rankings are as follows:
Penn State USC
Offense Defense Offense Defense
Points/gm 12th 5th 16th 1st
Yards/gm 24 12th 23rd 1st
Rushing/gm 29th 22nd 32nd 10th
Passinggm 67th 34th 53rd 3rd
Now some might say that the Pac 10 is more of a passing conference, with most teams passing a majority of their plays. Others might say that a more balanced attack, similar to what most offenses in the Big 10 run, is much more difficult to defend against. On the other hand, the Pac 10 does have its share of quality running backs. Most of them play for USC of course, but they are in the Pac 10 nonetheless.
Others might say that most of USC’s opponents were far enough behind early on that the only choice they had was to pass consistently, abandoning the running game and doing things like going for the first down on a 4th and 5 regularly, hence the good defensive numbers. Plus of course it is always much easier to defend against the pass when you have a real good idea that 75 percent or more of the opponents plays will be passes.
I tend to believe however that the USC defense is for real. They played some quality opponents and their defensive speed is out of this world. Of course, other than Ohio State, USC has not faced a team that plays a real physical style of football on the lines. USC plays a lot of fast teams and a few teams that they play have physical linemen, but those team’s stock and trade is not their physical nature on the lines for the most part. On the other hand, Penn State does not play many teams that have real good team speed. Again, a few teams they have played have good speed, but speed has not generally been the stock and trade of the Big 10 for the most part.
I am not going to go into detail relative the similar opponent comparison. Most people are well aware of the fact that both of these teams played against Ohio State and Oregon State with differing results. I personally do not believe that the performance of any team that has to travel up to 3,000 miles is a very good indicator of their true abilities. Suffice it say that both Oregon State and Ohio State got trounced pretty good when traveling to Penn State and USC respectively while Oregon State beat USC in Oregon and Penn State squeaked by Ohio State in the Horseshoe. I am just not convinced that this comparison is a reliable indicator of future performance. All teams involved can simply take a Mulligan on the dates of their respective losses or call it an off day and that may well be true.
This game comes down to two major factors. For USC, they are back in the Rose Bowl again against a Big Ten team – #### hum. USC could well believe that they deserve to be playing in a better bowl game, maybe even in the National Championship game. After all, the pundits generally agree that USC and Texas are the best teams not playing in the National Championship game. The only team to beat USC has been flirting with being nationally ranked and USC lost that one on the road. Florida lost a home game to Mississippi and, even though Mississippi has worked themselves into the national rankings, I would think that losing a home game would hurt more than losing an away game. That is just my opinion of course but I do believe that if you can make a case for Florida or Texas, then one should also be able to make a case for either USC and Penn State.
I can only imagine that USC will be a little complacent and over confident going into this game. USC, if you need any help in this area, refer to the 1986 National Championship game, when Miami was reportedly good enough to beat several NFL teams. Penn State is not doing over confident this year. They normally do not engage in the overconfidence thing by the way, even when they can be. It is an attitude and coaching thing that those on the left coast just wouldn't understand.
This game for Penn State all comes down to their attack. Penn State’s defense will be fine overall. Yes, they will give up a few big plays to the USC offense. I think that is a given. Penn State’s offensive game plan though will be the biggest key to this game. Penn State can run the ball on the Trojans. No, Penn State will not gain 200 yards on the ground, but they can be effective enough to keep USC guessing as to what is coming at them, which USC is not used to seeing.
If Penn State comes out and keeps things opened up a bit, mixing in some good screen passes, play action and by hitting their tights ends regularly and with enthusiasm, then Penn State is in this game all the way. If Penn State comes out though thinking that they are going to play this game like they played against Ohio State and Iowa, keeping everything close to their vest and just waiting for the other team to make a mistake, Penn State could get beat soundly.
Personally, I am looking forward to a great game. This one could be a real ####-knocker and I think that both teams will learn quite a bit about the other. Penn State is not going to be in awe of USC and that is something else that USC will not be used to. Penn State has played as well or better on the road this year than at any time in the recent past. That is all this is going to be – one more away game.
I believe that Penn State might just really surprise the Trojans next week. They will surprise them with a bit more speed than USC would normally expect from a Big Ten team and with the strength and tenacity to match their own. Neither team is going to be intimidated. Additionally, I believe that the fact that Penn State will not be intimidated will be a source of concern for USC. In fact I look for USC to take a couple of unsportsmanlike penalties in this one, going just a bit too far in trying to intimidate the Nits.
I think JoePa lets his team play and have some fun this year and I think they represent well. I also think that this will be a defensive battle, a low-scoring affair that will most likely be decided in the closing minutes. I also believe that USC is in for a very rude awakening. I also believe that Penn State will win its fourth Bowl game in a row.
My Fearless Prediction – USC 17. PennState 20.
Georgia v. MichiganState:
In this game the Big Ten representative is a 7 point underdog to the SEC team.
On the surface, Michigan State appears to have a one-dimensional offense. That is actually true to some extent. Javon Ringer is an excellent running back and he has proven that just about every week during the regular season, rushing for almost 1600 yards in 12 games. What most people overlook is the fact that the Spartans have amassed 2200 yards through the air this year also, which isn’t too shabby.
Georgia however has a very balanced offense, with Stafford throwing for over 3200 yards and Moreno rushing for over 1300 yards while averaging almost 6 yards per carry. Moreno is a very good running back – one that you don’t hear a lot about but he should be collecting some accolades.
Ringer is a workhorse and a great back but his average is less than 4 yards per carry. Of course Ringer did have a few days on which he was held basically in check, against Ohio State and Penn State mainly.
Another thing that concerns me a bit in this game is the Michigan State quarterback Hoyer. Hoyer is capable of being a very fine quarterback but he is also capable of making the big mistake.
A win for the Spartans would be huge. Beating an SEC team in a New Years day bowl would be huge. Georgia has a lot of weapons though and I think this game will come down to how the defenses stack up. The Michigan State defense has had its bright moments but in the big games, they just didn’t show up. MSU gave up 45 points at home to Ohio State and 49 points against Penn State in State College. What’s even worse is that they gave up 38 points against Cal in California. As with all the Big Ten bowl games, this game is an away game for the Spartans.
Let’s go inside the numbers for a bit. Both teams are 9 and 3, good for third in their respective conferences. Curiously, both teams have played 6 teams with winning records, two teams with 6 and 6 records and 8 bowl teams. That’s pretty much where the comparison ends however.
Michigan State’s opponents have gone a combined 78 and 66 which isn’t too dusty. Georgia’s opponents have however gone a combined 86 and 56. I don’t know if you chalk that up to Georgia playing in the SEC or if it might have something to do with the fact that Michigan State does not play FCS schools and the like as most other teams do.
Below are the team’s respective rankings:
Michigan State Georgia
Offense Defense Offense Defense
Points/gm 111th 78th 50th 132nd
Yards/gm 131st 136th 32nd 56th
Rush/gm 136th 136th 103rd 81st
Pass/gm 113th 139th 26th 81st
Georgia obviously compares much better in their rankings and the teams they have played against have a better won-loss record. Michigan State fans should start worrying right about now. If they weren’t already worried, let me add to it just a bit. In your two Big Ten losses this year, Ringer had a combined total of 33 rushes for a total of 109 yards for a very pedestrian average of 3.3 yards per carry. Additionally, you guys gave up 203 rushing yards to California. Yes, that is the Pac 10 Cal.
Not so fast….. Georgia fans have a reason to be concerned too. Georgia came into the year as the pre-season concensus number 1 in the country. They have wound up looking very less than impressive. Georgia was less than impressive with their 14-7 win against South Carolina, they looked terrible in the first half of the Alabama game, they barely squeaked by Auburn (who was really pretty bad this year) and Georgia has not really had an impressive win all year. The closest thing to impressive that Georgia has on their resume is the win against a very over-rated LSU team by the score of 52 to 38.
The turnovers were the difference in the South Carolina game, with South Carolina gaining more yards, putting up more first downs, etc. The same can be said about the LSU game in that LSU had better offensive numbers than Georgia had but the three turnovers that LSU suffered just killed them. Kentucky out-gained Georgia on the ground and had a better first down percentage but each team had two turnovers and Georgia won that game 42 to 38. The Auburn game was played extremely evenly and that game ended up a win for Georgia by a score of 17-13. That is just less than impressive. Georgia is a team that could very easily be 8 and 4, 7 and 5 or even 6 and 6.
On a positive note for MSU, they did not suffer their usual late-season let down, as they have the past few seasons. For a while there it seemed that Michigan State would come out playing good ball and fade at the half-way mark. Not so this year. Michigan State has played consistently good ball from start to finish and they have beaten the teams they should have with the exception of Cal of course, their first game of the year.
This game is really difficult to call. Georgia has played better against better opponents but they have gotten lucky too. Michigan State has played most of their schedule tuff but they have had two blow-out losses against good teams that they should have been able to at least hang with a bit more than they did. Georgia has also been beaten soundly but that was against Florida and the first half of the Alabama game. Yes, Georgia came back in the second half to make the game respectable but the game was not as close as the score might lead some to believe.
Being a Big Ten homer, I lean toward giving the nod to the Spartans, although Georgia is clearly the better team overall. I tend to believe however that this game will come down to attitudes. These are two programs that went in two totally different directions this season. Michigan State started the year with no love coming their way at all and Georgia was the pre-season # 1. Since then, Michigan State has scratched and clawed their way into the 18th spot in the latest BCS rankings and Georgia has fallen to the 15th spot. Michigan State needs a win to gain some respect and Georgia might just feel that their season was a wasted effort based on the respect that they have lost.
When it all comes down to it, Michigan State has consistently proved that they can not defend a balanced attack and Georgia has that balanced attack. The Michigan State offense is a bit too one-dimensional, which will allow Georgia to plug the running lanes and wait for Hoyer to beat them. As much as I would like to think that is possible, I just don’t think so. I really hope I am wrong on this one.
My Fearless Prediction – Georgia 41, MichiganState 21.
South Carolina v. Iowa:
Here we have the one and only game in which the Big Ten team is favored to win. That is with good reason too although the point spread is not particularly impressive at 3 points.
Neither team is ranked coming into this New Years Day bowl game, but Iowa is very close, just missing the cut coming in at 26. Iowa is sporting an 8 and 4 record and a fifth place finish in the Big Ten while South Carolina comes into the game at 7 and 5 and tied with LSU for fifth place in the SEC.
This game boasts two very good defenses. I think the difference in this one comes down to Shonn Greene and the Iowa Offense though.
Iowa has a hard-nosed defense but they also have an offense that can move the ball effectively. Even against some very good defensive teams, Greene has enjoyed 100 plus yard rushing games. South Carolina’s defensive numbers look great but their offense has been less than impressive through the year.
We are going to go inside the numbers fairly quickly on this one because I just don’t think there is that much to discuss in this game. No, I’m not saying that Iowa will blow the Gamecocks out, but this should not really be as good a game as I had originally thought that it may be. The more I look at Iowa the more I am convinced that they just could not catch a break this year, with the exception of the Penn State game of course. Iowa has played everyone tuff, but, other than Penn State, they did not really get a whack at the usual Big Ten cream of the crop either.
Iowa’s opponents have a combined record of 79 and 66 and they have played against 7 teams with a winning record and 6 bowl teams. Iowa has lost to three of those bowl teams. It should be noted however that they lost those three games by a combined total of 9 points.
South Carolina’s opponents have a combined record of 85 and 60, which is deserving of some respect. They have played against 7 teams with winning records and 7 bowl teams, but they have lost to five of those bowl teams by a combined margin of 88 points. Of course 50 of those points came at the hands of Florida in a blow-out.
The biggest difference between the schedules of these two teams is that Iowa has not been blown out by anyone, anywhere. The same cannot be said about South Carolina although they really were only blown out by Florida in that one game. The Clemson game was not a blow out loss for South Carolina, especially if you look at the box score or watched the game
Respective rankings are as follows:
Iowa South Carolina
Offense Defense Offense Defense
Points/gm 63rd 11th 177th 54th
Yards/gm 95th 26th 180th 25th
Rush/gm 52nd 24th 212th 78th
Pass/gm 158th 95th 100th 18th
This is where the real difference comes in. If Greene does not rush for 200 plus yards in this game I will be thinking that maybe he has the flu or something. Iowa’s rushing game should control the entire ebb and flow of the game. Iowa should dominate time of possession and field position. Understand that South Carolina will get some of its passing game in. They will pass for a few big gainers and they will probably even score some points.
This game boils down to Iowa’s strengths in the ground game on offense and defensively against the rush. I would be surprised if South Carolina rushes for more than 100 yards as a team. South Carolina will pass for 200 yards in this game but Iowa has faced better passing games than what South Carolina can offer up and they have withstood the storm.
Both teams have something to prove in this game because there is some sentiment that neither team belongs in this game. I cannot agree though at least concerning Iowa. They have played everyone tough, they have beaten a top ten program this year and they have showed well against every team they have played.
South Carolina fans can take heart in the fact that Iowa’s passing game is not the best. Stanzi has been serviceable but not overly impressive. Your defense too will provide a challenge for Iowa. If Iowa makes even one or two mistakes this could be a very close game and your team speed could surprise Iowa a bit. Just don’t be too surprised to see some speed on the other side of the ball. Iowa is not one of the old-fashioned slow motion Big Ten teams of old. They will still punch you right in the teeth. They are still a Big Ten team of course. They will just get there quicker now to do it.
My Fearless Prediction – Iowa 31, South Carolina 14.
Kansas v. Minnesota
This is actually an intriguing game. It is intriguing to me anyway because I am anxious to see which Minnesota team shows up. Will it be the Minnesota team that lost their last four games, one of those to a 4 and 8 team, or will it be the Minnesota team that played their first 8 games at 7 and 1? Kansas is favored by ten points in this game. I’m afraid that might not be enough.
Both teams are 7 and 5 on the year, with the gophers coming in 6th place in the Big Ten and the Jayhawks coming in 7th in the Big 12.
Both teams actually started the year impressively. Both teams though got their early wins against some truly inferior opponents the first half of their respective seasons. As the season rolled out, Kansas played several much better opponents than Minnesota.
Minnesota suffered a real blow-out loss against Iowa and they looked horrible against a Michigan team that was horrible in their own right. Kansas got blown out against Texas Tech and some might say that Kansas got blown out against Texas too but that game was actually closer than a 35-7 score might normally indicate.
I think that this game comes down to Minnesota starting the season off great and thinking that they were something special. They took the 34-21 loss against Ohio State in stride because, well, it was a loss to Ohio State after all. They came back after that loss and won against Indiana, Illinois and Purdue, after which the wheels fell off. They ended their season losing to three bowl teams and a hapless Michigan team that they had no business losing to.
Kansas started the season with two impressive wins, against Florida International and Louisiana Tech, and then they lost to South Florida. After their first loss they came out and won three against FCS Sam Houston State, Iowa State (barely) and Colorado. Then they hit the tuff portion of their schedule, losing to Oklahoma, getting blown out by Texas Tech, beating Kansas State convincingly, and then losing to both Nebraska and Texas before closing their season out with a win against Missouri. I don’t know about anybody else, but an excellent team could make a case for losing two of those last six games and I wouldn’t argue with them.
Kansas is not a great team and they have their weaknesses, but nothing like the weaknesses that Minnesota has shown the latter half of their season. Yes, although I think that Minnesota could have maybe played this Kansas team tuff in the first half of the year, I believe that Minnesota is really questioning everything at this point. If Minnesota’s losses had all come to good teams, they could have some solace. That is not the case however and getting blown out by 55 points in the season finale against Iowa, who does not regularly put up huge numbers, is just inexcusable for any team planning on winning a bowl game. Of course maybe not all is lost for Minnesota in this game.
Of course if coach Brewster can get inside the heads of the Minnesota offense a little and their new offensive line coach (hired at the conclusion of the regular season) can make any difference, then Minnesota might even make this a game. Minnesota is putting a new wrinkle into the spread offense. They will be running the ball out of the I formation against Kansas to some extent, using a fullback for the first time this year and lining up one of their two freshmen running backs seven yards behind the line of scrimmage, so their offense will look a bit more like Penn State’s Spread HD. That will give the rookie backs an extra step to pick a hole and an extra blocker at the point of attack. If Minnesota can somehow come up with an I formation that will give them some amount of effectiveness in the running game, then they could push the Jayhawks and make this a good game. Changing the offense to this degree might also be just what this Minnesota team needs to give them back some level of confidence. Making the new offense effective though with only 15 practices between their regular season and the bowl game might be a real challenge though.
Let me digress back to the previous performances for both of these teams. Minnesota has played some decent opponents who have amassed an overall record of 74 and 69. Sort of middle of the road. They have played 5 teams with winning records and 6 bowl teams with 4 of their 5 losses coming against those bowl teams.
Kansas has played a much more difficult schedule, with their opponents generating an overall record of 87 and 58. They have played 7 programs that have posted a winning season and those 7 teams are all bowl teams. All of Kansas’ losses have come to those bowl teams.
Both teams have beaten two bowl teams. For Minnesota, their wins against bowl teams were against Northern Illinois and Michigan State. The Kansas wins against bowl opponents were Louisiana Tech and Missouri.
Here is how the teams rank nationally:
Minnesota Kansas
Offense Defense Offense Defense
Points/gm 156th 99th 48th 179th
Yards/gm 172nd 163rd 34th 194th
Rush/gm 202nd 134th 157th 72nd
Pass/gm 109th 188th 14th 236th
When looking at these rankings I have to wonder why either team actually even fields a defense to tell the truth. Other than a decent running defense for Kansas, both defenses appear to be fairly inept. The difference is that Kansas has some offense, getting great yardage out of their passing game, getting good points per game totals and total yards gained per game in that passing game.
One must keep in mind when looking at these rankings also that Kansas has played against three top ten programs this year in Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. Missouri was also up there for a while but they are not the team that the experts have been giving them credit for being all year. This Kansas team deserved to beat Missouri in their final game of the year. Kansas is simply the better team of the two.
This game basically comes down to the fact that Kansas has a passing game and Minnesota has nothing to offer on either side of the ball. Minnesota’s passing game not totally inept though and they will gain some respectable passing yardage. If Minnesota can do anything with their running game to give them even a little threat in that area then their passing game becomes that much more effective. Minnesota’s pass defense though is nothing to be proud of and Kansas will be lighting it up through the air.
Minnesota’s only hope is that their coaches, both old and new, will have been able to instill a brand new attitude and offensive strategy since the regular season ending. I think Minnesota comes in with the right attitude but I do not believe that 15 days of practice is enough to make the changes necessary to make their running game effective enough.
My Fearless Prediction – Kansas 37, Minnesota 17.
Missouri v. Northwestern
In this game the Big Ten team is a 13.5 point dog to the Big 12 north winning Missouri tigers. That score differential is understandable I guess just based upon the fact that Missouri played a number of big time opponents in the Big 12 this year. They lost them all of course but they played in the games.
Actually, Missouri’s biggest wins this year were over Illinois (who had a losing record playing in the Big Ten, and Nebraska who is actually little more than a shadow of their former selves. Other than at the quarterback position, I just have not been overly impressed with Missouri and I believe that Missouri has been receiving a lot of love this year from the pollsters and pundits based on very little fact.
Of Course Northwestern has played a mush softer schedule than Missouri with their biggest win coming against Iowa in Iowa.
Missouri is 9 and 4 with their extra loss at the hands of Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game. Without the extra Championship game, Missouri comes in tied for fourth in the Big Twelve with Oklahoma State. Northwestern finished the season 8 and 3, in 4th place in the Big Ten.
Northwestern might have something to prove in this game though because they were jumped by Iowa for the better bowl game. Especially after beating Iowa at home I can only imagine that this fact is still stinging Northwestern fans a bit. Add to this the fact that Missouri is a heavy favorite and most likely very confident and I believe that Northwestern will actually make a game of this one.
Don’t get me wrong, I think that Missouri has a more talented team, but I also believe that Northwestern has some really bright kids playing and Pat Fitzgerald just might have the tenacity to have his team fired up just enough to make this one close. I wouldn’t touch this game with a ten foot pole if I were a betting man but if I were; I would be leaning toward going with the Wildcats because I do not believe that Missouri will cover.
One difference between these two teams is that Missouri has been in the limelight all year. Great things were expected of this team – they just could not deliver. Northwestern on the other hand has not gotten the respect that they may very much deserve. This game is being played on the 29th and it is the only game being played. Every College Football fan in the country will be watching this game so this is the biggest show that Northwestern will have been in all year. I think the Northwestern players are looking forward to the opportunity to showcase their team and their abilities.
This Northwestern team is made up of a tough bunch of kids, both physically and mentally. They would like nothing better than to pull the upset or at least keep this one close so that the entire country sits back and takes notice. Missouri thinks they are in a walk here. Of the 68 bowl games being played, the 13.5 point spread is the largest of the bunch. I bet every player in this game is aware of that spread. One side will benefit from this knowledge and the other just might find it to be a detriment.
Ok, inside the numbers we go:
Northwestern’s opponents have a combined record of 69 and 75, which is weak. They have only played four programs with winning records and all four of those teams are going bowling. They split their games against the bowl teams they played, going 2 and 2. Missouri, on the other hand, has played a lot of good opponents. They lost to most of them, but they played the games. Missouri’s opponents have a combined record of 88 and 71. They have played 7 programs with winning records and all seven of those teams are bowl-bound. Against those seven teams, Missouri has gone 3 and 4, beating Nevada, Buffalo and Nebraska while losing to Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma.
Understand please that any team would have done well to split the games against those last four teams mentioned. That is quite a gauntlet. The fact of the matter though is that Missouri didn’t split those games, they lost them all.
Missouri normally puts up a lot of points. Chase Daniel has over 4,100 yards passing this year. What’s more is that Derrick Washington has run for all but 1,000 yards on the year. While they do not have a balanced offensive attack, it would seem that they use the pass to set up the run with some success.
Going a bit deeper into the numbers, here is a look at the stats for each team:
Northwestern Missouri
Offense Defense Offense Defense
Points/gm 141st 43rd 7th 154th
Yards/gm 120th 108th 6th 205th
Rush/gm 112th 76th 100th 79th
Pass/gm 119th 159th 7th 240th
Those are some numbers there. Especially against the opponents that Missouri has faced, having rankings in the top 10 in total points, yards and passing yardage per game is impressive. A guy like Chase Daniel throwing to competent receivers will do that for you. The running games of both clubs are exceptionally close but it would appear that Northwestern’s pass defense is a bit better than Missouri’s pass defense.
Again, on paper I can understand the point spread based, if on nothing else other than the passing game that Missouri brings with them. Just don’t sell Northwestern too short too quickly. The only common opponent that both teams faced was Illinois. Missouri beat Illinois 52 to 42 in the first game of the year and Northwestern beat Illinois 27-10 in the last game of the year. I don’t know if you can draw much inference from those games but it should be noted that Illinois was playing for a bowl berth in that last game of their year.
Here is the long and the short of it. Missouri’s Daniel will pass for 300 plus yards in this game. Northwestern might not have the offensive weapons to hang with Missouri but I have to believe that a bright bunch of kids are going to seize on this opportunity to make the best of this situation. I think that Northwestern represents themselves very well in this game and, with a bit of tenacity, it is even possible for them to pull off the upset. I really do not believe that the upset will happen, but I do believe that this game will be a bit closer than everyone expects.
My Fearless Prediction – Missouri 41, Northwestern 37.
Last, but certainly not least – FloridaState v. Wisconsin
This is the first game of the Bowl Season for the Big Ten and Wisconsin will hopefully set the proper tone in this one. Wisconsin has been an enigma this year, starting out well, going into a losing skid and then working their way back out of it. Florida State has actually done better than most would have predicted at the start of the season. In fact they played very hard against an excellent Florida team at the end of the year. As usual, Florida State has a tuff defense that can hang with anyone and they do not hesitate to punch you right in the teeth. Their offense is decent with a good running game and good numbers relative to points per game.
Wisconsin boasts a slightly better running game that Florida State but their defensive numbers aren’t nearly as impressive as Florida State. Wisconsin does not put the points on the board the way that Florida State has either nor has Wisconsin played as many winning programs this year as has Florida State.
Wisconsin comes into this game having secured 6th place in the Big Ten with a 7 and 5 record. Florida State comes into the game having secured a tie for 5th place in the ACC with their 8 and 4 record. On paper this game would appear to be a fairly even match, with the nod going to Florida State based on their “more difficult” schedule. Florida State is giving Wisconsin 5 points in this one.
Nothing short of a win will do for the Badgers and the Big Ten and this Wisconsin team is capable of pulling off the upset, dependant of course on which Wisconsin team actually shows up tomorrow. Bobby Bowden is a wily old guy though, not unlike JoePa in more ways than one so pulling off the upset will be no easy task.
Florida State is going to come out and try to intimidate Wisconsin with hard hits and cocky play. The hard hits will actually make Wisconsin feel like they are just playing in another Big ten game though so that won’t make much difference. Wisconsin can hit people with the best of them. The cocky play of course will be a switch for the Badgers. They just aren’t used to playing against the southern style all talent and no brain squads. The Badgers might even be amused by that a bit.
The Big Ten has been getting knocked on fairly hard for the last few years based upon a less than impressive bowl seasons over that span. There was a time however, not very long ago, when the Big Ten normally won 2/3 to ¾ of their bowl games and Wisconsin was consistently a part of that equation. The Badgers want nothing more than to come out and make a big statement for both themselves and the Big Ten in this game. Of Course Florida State fans do not have far to go to attend this game and they will be out in force doing whatever it is that they do with their arms and chanting to the sun goddess or whoever it is they are trying to communicate with during their home games. Sorry Florida State fans, I just couldn’t help myself.
This game could be the hardest hitting game of the bowl season and it might just be one of the more fiercely contested battles. Let’s go into the numbers to see why I think so:
Wisconsin started the year out right with wins over Akron, Marshall and Fresno State. They then started their Big Ten season and lost an inexplicable game to Michigan, lost another to Ohio State (but not by much), they got beat handily at home by Penn State and they also fell to Iowa. Losing to three of those four teams wouldn’t be all that bad but losing to Michigan gives me pause to wonder what is up with this Badger team. After losing four in a row, they come back and win won against Illinois, they then lose to Michigan State, and then they beat Indiana and Minnesota before closing out their regular season against FCS Cal Poly.
Yes, Wisconsin closed their season against a FCS school. I understand that the game had been scheduled earlier in the year originally but for some reason it had to =be moved to the end of the year. What’s more is that Wisconsin had to come from behind and win that game in OT. Of course it should be noted that Cal Poly plays some kind of offense. Through the 2008 season Cal Poly rushed for over 3500 yards and gained over 2000 through the air. Cal Poly was ranked in the top ten of the FCS division for most of the year and the ended the year ranked # 9.
Wisconsin played against 7 teams this year that had accumulated a winning record and 6 of those teams are bowl bound. Their opponents have a combined record of 80 and 64 which isn’t too shabby. Of the 6 bowl teams that Wisconsin played against, Wisconsin won against 3 and lost against 3.
Florida State started their season by taking on two really bad FCS division teams in Western Carolina and Chattanooga. These two teams combined for a 4 and 20 record this year. I mean EEEEWWWW, throw me a bone here………. If you are going to schedule an FCS team, make them at least a respectable team that generally posts a winning record at least. If you are going to put two of them on the schedule at least one of them must be a consistently great program. Florida State should give up ten points for this ####. I mean I know that Bowden needs to try something to keep up with JoePa and, what is it, about 10 percent of his total wins have come against minor college football programs???? This is over the top though Bobby. Show some class – even last class will do. Ok, my bad again. Sorry Florida State fans.
Other than those two games to start the year though Florida State’s other opponents, with the exception of Colorado, all had winning seasons and/or are going to a bowl game with a 6 and 6 record. That also isn’t too shabby overall.
Florida State’s opponents had a combined record of 83 and 65. Eight of their opponents had a winning record and 9 of them are bowl bound. Florida State has played one great team in Florida, one decent team in Georgia Tech and bunch of teams that managed somehow to post winning records. Maybe those teams played two crappy FCS schools too – I don’t know. Oops, I digress. No, I’m not apologizing this time.
Anyway, Florida State, once they got to playing against real football teams, went 5 and 4 against the bowl teams that they faced this year. They lost to Wake Forest, Ga. Tech, Boston College and Florida. Not a bad group but a real good team wins all but maybe two of those games. On the other hand they did manage to beat Miami, N.C. State, Va. Tech, Clemson and Maryland. I know, three of those five teams they beat were 7 and 5 and one was 6 and 6, but Florida State beat them so they get the props that beating several bowl teams deserve, even these ones. They also beat Va. Tech who went 9 and 4 this year.
Going inside the numbers a bit further we see the following rankings:
Wisconsin Florida State
Offense Defense Offense Defense
Points/gm 83rd 128th 47th 59th
Yards/gm 53rd 67th 102nd 28th
Rush/gm 28th 85th 58th 73rd
Pass/gm 146th 85th 156th 28th
Both teams have done well defensively with the overall defensive edge going to Florida State along with the points per game edge. The running game edge is fairly even with maybe a slight edge to Wisconsin.
I compare this Wisconsin team to the Penn State team that last beat Florida State in a bowl game. I also believe that this game will be played out in a very similar fashion.
Florida State is sitting at home waiting to take a bus to this game and checking the point spread every day. No, it hasn’t moved much guys. Wisconsin, other the other hand, is playing for pride for both themselves and the Big Ten. That, and heart will be the biggest difference in this game.
The over/under (going with the under) may be the way to go in this game. I do not expect a whole lot of scoring by either team. I do expect a lot of bruising though and maybe even a few broken bones. Neither team will be intimidated in this one. I just think that Wisconsin has more to play for.
Hey, I could be wrong. Maybe Bobby has something special planned for the bowl game. Maybe his kids will come out and play with all the heart in the world. They are certainly a very talented team and they have more overall team speed than Wisconsin has. I believe that Wisconsin has the horses though to stay with Florida State’s talent. This game could (and probably will) come down to whoever makes the fewest mistakes. By mistakes, I mean penalties, turnovers and bonehead plays. In all three of those areas I would give the edge to Wisconsin and that is what the pundits and the records fail to show.
My Fearless Prediction – FloridaState 17, Wisconsin 20(OT) (Does wide right ring a bell?)
That’s about it folks. Sorry the read was so long. I have the Big Ten going 4 and 3 this bowl season, which would be very good actually considering the fact that they are big underdogs in all but one of their bowl games. I truly believe that the Big Ten has been taken lightly over the last few years. There are several reasons for this I suppose, some real and some imagined. What I do know though is that if the Big Ten had accumulated a record against the lesser conferences anything like what the Pac 10 accumulated this year, the Big Ten would never live it down.
Speaking of conference comparisons, I do plan on doing a piece (much shorter by the way) comparing the inter-conference play of each conference shortly after the bowls are over.
Enough already. I hope you enjoy the bowl season as much as I plan on enjoying it. Win, lose or draw I wish everyone the best of luck in the bowl games and a great 2009.
Please check out the blogs of a couple other guys that have been doing this longer than I have:
Well, week 12 in the Big Ten was very interesting, with bowl implications throughout. Wisconsin made a statement, as did Ohio State, Penn State, Northwestern and Iowa. Some of those statements were not real loud of course but all of those teams stated that they wanted to play in a bowl game.
Wisconsin said "Hey, let us in". Ohio State said that they are still around lurking in the recesses. Penn State said that they were still alive, at least defensively. Northwestern said that they have some tenacity left in them and Iowa said "Wow, that was a hell of a party".
Some might say that Michigan even stated that they really didn't care about anything at this point in their season. Personally I just think it was a bit more of the same from Michigan - look decent in the first half but fall off the second half. Some might even say that they were saving themselves for the Ohio State game. We will have to see about that.
Well, without further ado, on to this week's picks:
I am going to update the blog a bit early this evening - in fact WAY early. Iowa and Minnesota are still in the third quater of their game. I really have no business updating this post at this point but, after being at Beaver Stadium for most of the day, I am still cold and I have the wood cooking in here so I am looking for an excuse to stay put right now. That and of course I am very happy with the way my picks have gone this week of course. Besides that, Iowa put Minnesota away in the first half so that game is about as over as it can get.
Talk about some big scores today? Today has been nothing like the rest of the Big Ten season.
While I'm here and thinking about it, I would also like to point out that it is now time for all Big Ten fans to start cheering on all the other Big Ten teams that will be representing in the upcoming bowl season. I am asking for an official end to the intra-conference sniping at this point and the official start of the Big Ten fan club as opposed to individual team fan clubs. Go BIG TEN.
Indiana (3-8) @ Purdue (3-8):
Purdue has now lost 7 of their last 8 games and Indiana has lost 8 of their last 9. The showdown at Purdue this weekend could be a real test of wills for these two teams. Both teams are currently sporting 3 and 8 records, so this game will determine the bottom of the Big Ten cellar for 2008.
Purdue offers a bit more of a passing attack than Indiana and the Hoosiers offer a bit more of a running game. Both defenses are fairly ordinary however Purdue has put in a few good defensive efforts this year.
One interesting stat in this game is that Purdue has played five teams ranked in the top 25. They haven't won any of them but I would suggest that their competition might have been a bit better than Indiana's this year. A second stat that jumps out at me is the fact that Indiana has not won a game on the road this year. A guy I know once told me that if you have two bad teams playing each other, stick with the home team. I would have to agree with that thought.
And the envelope says: Purdue 27 - Indiana 14
What actually happened - Purdue 62 - Indiana 10 WTF, did I see that right?
Ok, I want to talk to the person that truly envisioned this score in this game. Go ahead, raise your hand...... I'll wait.
I didn't think so. Holy smokes, Painter was on fire in this one. Painter accounted for all but a fraction of 479 yards passing by the Boilers, while they ammassed 35 first downs and 596 total yards. Holy smokes. I'm sorry Ed but that is total ownage. To top that off Indiana gave up two interceptions and a fumble. A dominating game just does not get any more complete than this game. Well, check that for right now. Iowa is winning 48-0 just starting the fourth quarter of their game.
Illinois (5-6) @ Northwestern (8-3):
This game also offers a contrast in style. Illinois is more offensive-minded than Northwestern and Northwestern is more defensive-minded than Illinois.
The Juice has the potential to be a real game breaker, both with his arms and his legs. Of course Northwestern plays solid defense, with their opponents averaging 20 points per game.
Bacher for Northwestern has thrown 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the year. Additionally, Northwestern does not have a real go-to back, with Sutton accumulating just 770 yards on 150 carries this year. Kafka actually has the better numbers of the two quarterbacks but he still has thrown more pics than touchdowns.
Juice Williams has passed for 1,000 yards more than the Northwestern quarterbacks and their running game has also been more productive with Juice racking up almost as many yards on the ground as Sutton has for Northwestern. Of course their defense gives up over 26 points per game too, so they need the extra offense just to compete.
Here is an interesting stat of the game. Northwestern is 1 and 2 at home against the Big Ten this year. Something else to ponder is that Illinois is 1-4 away from Champagne. I think Northwestern evens their home record against the Big Ten.
And the envelope says: Northwestern 27 - Illinois 17
What actually happened: Northwestern 27 - Illinois 10.
Ok, I was fairly close on this pick. Actually this game might have been the best watch today as these teams played a very even football game statistically. Both teams got 21 first downs and total net yardage gained was 339 for Northwestern and 335 for Illinois. The Penalties were reasonably close and each team has one interception. Time of possession did favor Illinois by almost two minutes. Illinois did have a fumble however, while Northwestern did not.
This biggest difference between these two besides the extra fumble by Illinois was punt return yardage, one of which set Northwestern up at the Illinois 20 yard line.
I'm sorry that Illinois did not get their 6th win and become bowl eligible but I am happy that Northwestern got the win and could get the nod for a New Year's Day bowl.
Five Big Ten teams playing on or after New Year's Day this year would be a bit much to hope for but it sure would be fun. I'll push for three though.
Michigan (3-8) @ Ohio State (9-2):
This game is one that should not be close. Ohio State should dominate this game from the start. With that said, Michigan has played a couple decent first halves of football this year. They even played for all 60 minutes once or twice this year. I think that Michigan will have to play for about 90 minutes in this game to have any shot at all.
Ohio State has a good ground game and their defense is very strong. Their linebackers are real ball hawks and they have great closing speed. Laurinaitus will most likely collect a slew of post season awards, deservedly so.
Offensively, Ohio State has come into their own of late, even showing on occasion that they can open up the playbook and grab some big chunks of yardage quickly. Pryor is playing well and continually getting better. Pryor has over 100- yards passing for the year after starting on the bench and he has rushed for 560 yards which is only 400 fewer than Wells. Of course Wells missed several games also.
Michigan plays a half decent rush defense but nowhere close to as good as they need to be to compete with Ohio State. They have a decent defensive front and they might be able to put a little pressure on young Pryor but I do not believe that Michigan can show Ohio State anything that they haven't seen before this year.
Michigan might make this look like it could be a close game for the first 20 minutes or so. If Ohio State does not come out and punch Michigan right in the mouth from the start this game could end up looking a lot closer than it should be. Ohio State just has too much talent and skill for that however. Michigan winds up ties for the Big Ten basement. How long has it been since that has happened?
And the envelope says: Ohio State 35 - Michigan 14
What actually happened: Ohio State 42 - Michigan 7.
Hmmm, not too far off on the score, 7 points for each team. This game was an example of pure domination also. Michigan was 1 for 17 on their third down attempts, the gained 198 total yards and they gave up two fumbles. No team has a chance of doing that and beating the Buckeyes. To go along with their defensive domination, Ohio State's offense looked solid, gaining 416 yards with 232 of those yards coming from the running game.
There were very few penalties in this game. One stat that doesn't get much attention are the punt returns. A quick snapshot of the game would be Ohio State's 5 returns for 110 yards, compared to 2 returns for 10 yards for Michigan.
Ohio State should be playing in a BCS bowl and I believe, deservedly so. I'm thinking Orange Bowl. For Michigan, what can be said after the worst record in school history besides that Rich Rod will get you there eventually. You have some talent and, as soon as Rich gets some guys in their that can thrive playing his schemes, you will be right back in the thick of things. Just please quit losing recruits.
Cal Poly @ Wisconsin (6-5):
You might have noticed that I did not enter Cal Poly's record for the year behind their name above. That is not because I am too lazy to look it up, it is just because their record simply does not matter. That and of course maybe I am just lazy.
Wisconsin is playing more like a Wisconsin team should play of late and they are playing at home in the final game of the regular season to get to 7-5 on the year and a respectable bowl game. Notwithstanding their ugly game last week, they have been getting more consistent and hard-nosed as the year goes on.
Hold the phone though guys. This little Cal Poly team is not someone that should be taken lightly. These guys put up numbers that look more like basketball scores than football scores. Wait a minute, I follow Penn State, remember? Their scores look like Penn State's basketball scores, maybe not the basketball scores for the rest of the Big Ten.
In their last game, the Cal Poly Mustangs won 51-27. They gained 522 total yards for the game and 427 of those yards came on the ground. What's more is that Cal Poly is ranked fifth in the FCS division in rushing defense. Their opponents in that last game (UC Davis) gained 366 yards in total offense, only 34 of them came on the ground. Cal Poly has won 7 straight games now this year and their record is 8 and 1. See, I'm not that lazy.
In their one loss this year, Arkansas, Little Rock beat them 67 - 40. That's where my basketball score analogy came from.
The long and the short of it is that Cal Poly is not coming into Wisconsin to be nice, to make a paycheck or to try to attract some attention. They are coming to pull an Appalachian State on Wisconsin's #### and if Wisconsin isn't ready to play this game things could get real ugly, real fast.
Please Wisconsin, for the sake of your bowl game and the Big Ten conference in general, please pummel these guys and do it right out of the box. Don't let th
