I mentioned it in my previous post, but couldn't go into much depth because the Vikings/Bears game was still on-going. Now that the Vikings posted their impressive win fueled by a lot of big plays and a great 2nd quarter goal-line stand, we can take a deeper look at the NFC playoff picture...
#1 seed: New York Giants. At 11-1 and on a tremendous roll, I don't think that there's any doubt about this squad not only making the playoffs, but doing so as the overall #1 seed. For any would-be NFC SB teams, that means a trip to New York in January - an overall unpleasant place at least weather-wise. What it means for the Giants is that all the warm weather or dome teams that are current looking like they'll make the playoffs have to come north and face the elements. It's a hidden advantage, but a tremendous one nevertheless. Look at Arizona - they've not won once on the East Coast and still have to travel to New England. The Bucs and Panthers play in the South and enjoy the warmer, nicer weather. If the Vikings hold on, they're a dome team - weather doesn't affect them. The Falcons are the same. Even Dallas, although that advantage is minimized as the two NFC East foes know each other so well. The biggest concern that I'd have about the Giants is that their 11-1 record and their current hot streak is coming now. I think that in order to truly be a more dangerous team, some team (especially one that's heading or at least vying for the playoffs) has to beat them. It will refocus them and get their prepared better for the playoffs. They are the NFL's best team right now, and knowing that the virtually have home field locked up is a very nice, satisfying feeling.
#2 seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Carolina Panthers. Why the double-team here? Well..because Tampa goes to Carolina next week on Monday Night Football. The winner of that game likely wins the division and takes the #2 seed. Neither team has a stellar quarterback, but both have proven time and again that they are winners, and know what it takes to win when it matters most. Both have strong defenses. Both have good coaches. Both have played well all season long for the most part. They've had their stumbles from time to time, but overall both teams are playing very good football. So it's kind of impossible to pick a team right now to win this division and take the #2 seed. After next Monday night we'll know.
#3 seed: Arizona Cardinals. Well, this is all well and good, but the Cards had better start proving they are capable of winning bad weather games that take place on the east coast. Otherwise, this nice story will be a short-lived one. It's hard for me to get really up on the Cards. For one thing, they'll probably face either Dallas or Atlanta in their home playoff game, and I think that both Dallas and Atlanta are better teams. The Cards really have to hope that the Cowboys don't get in. A veteran unit like the Cowboys, and one with a huge chip on their shoulder, would present a much more difficult game. The Falcons biggest upside is that they may been too young and inexperienced to feel the kind of pressure that they should.
#4 seed: Minnesota Vikings. Based upon tonight's huge win, the Vikings represent a very scary team. They are showing signs of having a passing game, which makes Adrian Peterson that much more difficult to stop. It was the single biggest problem with this team, and it looks like the Vikings have discovered enough of a passing game to keep defenses honest. That's the dangerous part, because Adrian Peterson is good enough to carry the team on his back should that be necessary. They have an easier schedule from this point out, and if they take care of business they'll win the division and host a wild card game.
#5 seed: Carolina/Tampa Bay - the loser of the MNF game will likely be the #5 seed. That means a trip to Minnesota in all likelihood.
#6 seed: Atlanta Falcons (currently) because of their 5-3 NFC record versus Dallas' 6-4 mark. I like Atlanta. Maybe I'm even a touch of a believer. But do I really think they'll hold onto this position?
If the last two realistic teams for the #6 seed are Dallas and Atlanta, then both have a tough road ahead to capture that slot.
Here are their last four games: 14. Atl @ NO Dal @ Pit 15. TB @ Atl NYG @ Dal 16. Atl @ Min Bal @ Dal 17. StL @ Atl Dal @ Phl
Atlanta maybe has the easier road. Maybe. The Saints game ought to be a win for the Falcons, but it'll be a tough one, on the road and against a divisional opponent. The Saints throw the ball around like crazy, but a solid team can beat them. So far Atlanta's proven up to that task. Dallas has a tremendous challenge in week 14. The Steelers defense will be a measuring stick for the Cowboys offense. The Dal/Pit game could go a long, long way towards determining two playoff positions, and you can bet both teams will be ready to play that one.
Week 15 is a nasty week for both teams. Atlanta will want to show Tampa they're better, and will have the advantage of the Bucs coming off a short week against Carolina. If the Bucs win against Carolina, then this game is even bigger - a win here would knock the Bucs back in the pack in the South, and would put Atlanta in a position to maybe steal the division. But for Dallas, week 15 could be it. If Dallas beats Pittsburgh, they still have a tiny margin of error. The Giants will want to waltz into Dallas and put a beat-down on Dallas, especially if the East is still up for grabs (in reality or theoretically). If the Giants come into this game knowing that a win seals up the division and probably the #1 seed, it gets even worse for Dallas. Dallas could conceivably be 2 games down to Atlanta after this one, but more realistically only 1.
Week 16 pits the Falcons against Minny. The Vikings have no room for error, so the dome will have a playoff-type atmosphere. The Cowboys will get the Ravens a week after the Ravens play Pittsburgh. If the Ravens win that one, and know that by winning out they take the AFC North, how fired up do you think the Ravens will be?
Week 17 should be a laugher for Atlanta, but Dallas may not have that luxury. If somehow the Cowboys need a win to secure that final spot against nemises Philadelphia, and the Eagles know that by winning they knock Dallas out...well, it won't exactly be the same thing as getting into the playoffs, but for the Eagles it would be their Super Bowl.
Bottom line for these two teams - they have tough roads. They are in precarious positions, and play opponents that are equal or better than them going down the stretch. What I know is this: for both teams, each and every game they have from here on out are huge. For Dallas, they have the additional pressure of being a pre-season Super Bowl favorite. To take such expectations into the season and come away with missing the playoffs would be crushing to them and their fans, and possibly most importantly, their owner Jerry Jones. He won't stand for it - not for long.
Washington (7-5), Chicago (6-6), New Orleans (6-6) and Philadelphia (6-5-1) all have outside shots of making the playoffs if both Atlanta and Dallas completely fall apart. That's what it will take. I don't think that either Carolina or Tampa will stumble that much to fall out of the playoff picture. But because both Dallas and Atlanta have tougher schedules to end the season, all hope is not yet lost for these teams. Two things have to happen, though - obviously, every single one of these teams needs to essentially win out to have that chance. And secondly, the leaders have to fall apart. None of these six teams have shown the kind of consistency that's necessary to make the playoffs, which further casts doubt upon their chances. It's never a pretty picture when you have to rely upon other teams losing in order for you to make the playoffs, and that's exactly what you have here.
Baltimore d. Cincy 34-3. Not much of a surprise here. The Bengals are a bad, bad football team and the Ravens are a very solid squad. When the Ravens win, typically they do it in two ways. First, they play outstanding defense. Second, they control the ball. These two elements usually go hand in hand. The Ravens had the ball for 38 minutes. Check on the ball control. The Bengals had 155 yards of offense. Check on the defense. The biggest surprise is that Cincy managed to score any points.
Carolina d. Green Bay 35-31. For Green Bay this hurts on so, so many levels. The worst is that now at 5-7, the Packers are a decided long shot for the playoffs. They came back from a 21-10 deficit to win. The worst of all might be that with 1:57 left, they had to settle for a field goal - the analysts were questioning Green Bay's play calling in that situation and it came back to haunt them badly. Then, on the ensuing kickoff, they gave up a big run to the Panthers, and then somehow let Steve Smith get open. Problem! For Carolina, they needed this win to keep pace with the very hot Bucs, who also won today. The fact that they let a team overcome a large deficit is worrisome, but in the end they made the plays when it counted the most. That's the mark o####ood football team.
Tampa Bay d. New Orleans 23-20. If there was any doubt that the Bucs are for real, this game begins to settle those doubts. The Bucs have amassed a 9-3 record and share of the lead in the NFC South quietly. So quietly that they have flown under the radar all season long. A mid-season quarterback controversy fueled that fire I think. But the Bucs are playing "Buc Ball" meaning their Tampa 2 defense is doing its job, and their offense is moving the ball well. They got 3 picks of Drew Brees, including 2 late to get the field goal to take the lead and another to ice it. The Saints got their yards, but yardage without scoring and with critical mistakes dooms you. The Saints are back to that head-scratching situation - a team with that much talent continuing to make killer mistakes. Many people thought it was Jim Haslett's fault. Maybe the players now need to take some blame.
Atlanta d. San Diego 22-16. The Falcons are 8-4, squarely in the playoff hunt, and stalking horses in the NFC South. Amazingly enough. The Falcons had a perfect storm of chaos last year - Vick and Petrino essentially killing this team. Petrino, like many college coach failures, seemed to try and run a college offense in the NFL, and that just doesn't work. The Falcons number 1 draft pick Ryan has been a total surprise, and the Falcons rely on a strong running game to keep Ryan safe. The Chargers are a total mess. Whether it's LaDanian Tomlinson's injury or age, or Shaun Merriman's injury, this team has lacked something all year. Usually, when pre-season Super Bowl picks are made, the teams end up being good ones. San Diego has defied those beliefs. They are just not good right now, for whatever reasons you want to pick. Defense? Consistency on offense? Scoring points? It's tough to watch a team that was supposed to be good having that many problems.
San Francisco d. Buffalo 10-3. The Niners are 4-8, and in the 13th week of the season is the first West Coast team to win in an East Coast city. They're playing better, with more fire and drive under Mike Singletary. They're still a ways off. As for Buffalo, a season that started so wonderfully has fallen completely apart. In a way, this game was a microcosm of their entire season of missed opportunities, mistakes at the worst possible moments and a complete inability to overcome adversity. The Bills are pretty much done - although the AFC East's top teams theoretically kept them in it - but it would take some collapses for them to taste the playoffs now.
Indinapolis d. Cleveland 10-6. You'd think that the Browns defense limiting Peyton Manning and his offense to 215 yards, no TDs and only 1 FG would equate to a Cleveland win, right? The game's only TD came via the Indy defense. The Colts were a little bit off today, and yet found a way to win. That's the mark of a solid team. At 8-4, the Colts are in the driver's seat for the Wild Card and still have official hope to win the South. But the Colts are primed for their annual playoff run, and today's game showed yet another side of Indy. For the Colts to win when their offense failed to click is a very good sign for them.
Miami d. St. Louis 16-12. The Dolphins used solid running and strong defense anchored by 3 picks to win this one at home. In a matchup that otherwise had very little interest, what it does is keep the Dolphins in the mix for the plyaoffs despite their 1-15 season last year. If it wasn't for Atlanta's turnaround, the Dolphins would be the talk of the NFL this year.
New York Giants d. Washington 23-7. ####-hum, another NY win. ####-hum, the Giants are 11-1. ####-hum, the NFL's leading rusher was held to 22 yards all game. There are no better teams in the NFL right now. Here's a key thought, though, for New York. It does not matter if you're the NFL's best team in December. It only matters in January. The Giants have the right sort of team to keep up their solid pace, however. As for the Redskins, losing 3 of the last 4, all against almost certain playoff teams, shows them exactly where they stand. They have a lot of work to do.
Kansas City d. Oakland 20-13. Hard to care much about this bottom-feeder game. Oakland showed some nice signs in winning last week and took a step back. Maybe there's hope there for the short-term future. KC has a ways to go yet, even with this win. At least both teams can say they're not Detroit.
Denver d. New York Jets 34-17. Maybe the Broncos read nationally-based analysis that said they were not a very good team despite leading the West. Maybe they finally got tired of not playing good defense. Maybe it was a perfect storm. In any event, this win shows off that Denver is in fact a solid team, especially offensively. It also is a painful loss for the Jets, who now at 8-4 still lead the AFC East, but fall a game back of Pittsburgh for the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs. The Jets have an easier schedule, but needed this game to validate them as a top AFC team. The Broncos torched their secondary, and but a solid beating on the Jets. Hmmm.
In perhaps the premier afternoon game, the Pittsburgh Steelers defense overwhelmed the Patriots offense in a 33-10 win. The Steelers have the NFL's best defense, and it was on display today, especially in the second half, as they picked off Matt Cassel 4 times. The Steelers offense wasn't wonderful, but they did enough to get the job done. They get to sit back and watch that defense go to work, and if there's a lesson for other teams in today's game, it's that you absolutely cannot allow Pittsburgh to get a lead into or during the second half. Their defense is simply too good from that point on.
Today's games clarified the playoff pictures in both conferences. The South and West are practically decided - it would take a complete collapse by Denver, and the Chargers to go on the hottest of hot streaks to change that division - and the Titans are simply playing too well to allow the Colts to catch them. The AFC East and North each have division leaders holding slim one-game leaders. The Jets face a far easier road to the title - they are done with NE, and host Buffalo and Miami for their final 2 divisional games. They now need to win at least 3 if not all 4 of their remaining games if they want to gain that #2 playoff seed, though. The Steelers win keeps them one game ahead of the equally hot Ravens. We'll discuss those two teams in more depth in a bit. In the Wild Card picture, I think that the Colts are safe right now, at 8-4 and wins over Baltimore, Pittsburgh and New England. Holding those tie-breakers puts them almost certainly in the #5 seed, especially with two cream-puff games against Cincy and Detroit in the next two weeks. The #6 seed is currently the Baltimore Ravens.
The AFC North race is going to be incredibly interesting and extremely nerve-wracking for fans of both teams. The Ravens host Washington next week as Pittsburgh hosts Dallas. The Ravens get a huge edge there - the Redskins are not playing great football right now, and Dallas looks to be screaming back into the playoff race with Romo's return. Next week's game in Pittsburgh is going to be a huge one for Pittsburgh. It's almost impossible to believe that a 9-3 team, leading a division, faces a "must win" game this late in the season, but it is a must-win game. They must maintain that 1-game lead over Baltimore. Why? Well, the chances are good that Baltimore will beat the Redskins, and then the December 14th Pittsburgh at Baltimore game will have the NFL hype machine red-lining. These two teams hate each other. Their fans hate each other (I know...I keep getting blasted by Ravens fans because they perceive that I'm too one-sided). Their front-office staffs don't like one another. It's a true rivalry, born out of two evenly matched, very good football teams that have tasted success recently. After that game then it gets really interesting once again for both teams. The Ravens have to travel to Dallas. Now, if Dallas should lose to Pittsburgh or in their following game, Dallas simply MUST have a win against Baltimore to keep hopes alive for the playoffs. They are back of the Falcons right now, and have to win. Traveling to Texas Stadium is never easy. So the Ravens will have a brutal game there. However, in that same week Pittsburgh goes to Tennessee. Now if the Titans have sewn up their division and the overall #1, then maybe Pittsburgh catches a break. But I suspect that even if the Titans hold all the cards, they very well might play their regulars against Pittsburgh as a playoff-preview type game. Both teams end with slightly easier games - Pittsburgh at home versus Cleveland the Ravens at home versus Jacksonville. The way I see it, Pittsburgh has 3 hugely challenging games, and the Ravens have 2. Pittsburgh simply has to win 3 of those final 4 games, otherwise I think there is a very real possibility that the Ravens take the AFC North. What it all boils down to will be the December 14th game. The winner of that game wins the North. That's just how I see it.
As for the AFC teams slightly out of the race right now...
New England's chances took a serious blow today. Now, the fact that the Jets lost gives them hope, but they're now a game down to the Ravens and Colts in the Wild Card race. The Pats only remaining game against a team with a non-losing record is the Arizona game - at home. The Cards have been bad on the East Coast, and since both teams run pass-heavy offenses, you've got to give a huge advantage to the Pats. It's very possible the Pats run the table at 11-5, and they'll frankly need to do so if they want to get into the playoffs. The Ravens and Colts now with a game up on them have put them into that position. Losing to Pittsburgh hurts even more - the Steelers hold the critical tie-breaker now, so even if the Ravens defeat PIttsburgh, the Pats could still be on the outside looking in.
Miami is also in the hunt with a 7-5 record. The Dolphins forged a split with New England. They have a 2-2 divisional record, with games remaining at Buffalo (sort of...it's in Toronto) and at New York in the season finale. With two other winnable games versus San Francisco and Kansas City, the Dolphins will be able to put immense pressure on the Pats and the other would-be wild card contenders. The Dolphins have 4 AFC losses versus the Pats 5, but the Dolphins have more AFC games to go down the stretch. It's feasible that Miami could make the playoffs, especially with the Jets loss, but it'll be a tough go of it.
According to several published "rumor mill" reports on various websites, ex-Pittsburgh Steeler head coach Bill Cowher has not only been approached by the Cleveland Browns franchise to become their next head coach, but has also purchased a home in the Strongsville area of Ohio (only 20 minutes out of downtown Cleveland). The websites go on to say that Cleveland's initial offers have been in the $8 to $9 million range - or the exact range Cowher attempted to get out of the Rooney's before retiring. One website went so far as to say that Cowher's well-known desire for control would be part of this package, and that he'd try to cherry pick key people from the Steelers organization in order to become the head coach.
Now this is in direct contrast to Cowher's stated position, said many times on and off the television for the CBS pre-game show, which is that he is staying put. I think that he wants to coach again, but he may still want to take some more time. It's hard to say - he's expressed enjoyment at the easy schedule and the even easier money, and it would be pretty difficult to get back into the swing of being a head coach after enjoying a few years of easy work and money.
But Cowher to Cleveland makes a lot of sense on many levels. The Cleveland organization is where he got his start both as a player and coach, and he was hired away from Cleveland to be Pittsburgh's head coach. The Pittsburgh ties are there and very strong (Crafton, where he was born and raised, is a suburb of Pittsburgh) but so are the Cleveland ties.
Coaches, like players, are basically mercenaries. They go to where the money is. So if Cleveland is offering $8 or $9 million a year to be their head coach, that's a damn strong incentive. There are a million details to be worked out, however, and the one element that can be a dealbreaker in this is Cowher's desire for control. I don't think he wants to wear the GM hat per se, but he does want to exercise considerable control over personnel issues. Cowher's good at it, but he's better at it when he's working with a like-minded individual. Cowher famously got a GM fired in Pittsburgh over their disagreements on personnel. And since Kevin Colbert was hired, the Steelers drafting has been very good - and Colbert and Cowher were like-minded individuals when it came to drafting talent.
The chance to right a franchise would be a new and different challenge for Cowher. In Pittsburgh, he took over a stable franchise although one that had been down for a few years, and he got production out of them right away.
He's a fiery coach, but a well-known players coach. The guys loved playing for him because he's got their back. He knows how to get his team ready to play, relies heavily on position coaches and coordinators (and is also very hard on them) but is not the best game tactician. Those are his best strengths and weaknesses. He would be a good fit in Cleveland - they've attempted to draft to play the 3-4 defense (what Cowher knows and loves) and has also tried to draft for a strong running again, another Cowher staple. The right conditions are there, to be honest. So it all comes down to some basics. Control. Money. And most importantly, does he and his family really want to go through that ringer again? If so, then Cowher coaching Cleveland wouldn't surprise too many people.
Of course, in Pittsburgh, he would not only immediately become persona non grata, but the most hated turncoat ever. I think he'd be looked upon worse than Barry Bonds, if you can believe that. Pittsburgh fans can tolerate a lot. They can tolerate a player going to another team, and having success with that other team. They don't tolerate people trash-talking the city. They absolutely would despise a head coach taking the same position for a divisional rival like Cleveland.
But if the NFL wants to put the fires to a divisional rivalry for TV and entertainment purposes...this would be one way to do it.
Once upon a time, men of all ages, shapes & sizes looked forward to Thanksgiving for the family, the fun, the drinking, and then disappearing into the coziest, most comfortable room to settle in and watch football on television. The 4PM game is the one best suited for the triptofan (sorry if I spelled it wrong) induced coma, but the 1PM offers some pleasant diversion prior to eating. There have been many a Thanksgiving Day where my family would convene in the basement of my old (childhood) home, stoke the roaring fire, throw the game on, drink beer and shoot pool while the women were upstairs talking about whatever it was that women talked about on Thanksgiving Day.
So what do we have forward to watch this year?
Tennessee Titans (10-1) at Detroit Lions (0-11). Each year, as Detroit slips deeper and deeper into football hell, people scream that the Lions should lose this game as punishment for being bad, badly run and an afterthought in the NFL universe. Let me make this argument, however. In a sport where tradition lasts as long as it takes to say "what have you done for me lately" I think it's good to maintain both Detroit and Dallas as the two guaranteed teams on Thanksgiving Day. It's relatively harmless, even if Detroit is simply that bad. Besides, the best way to watch football on Turkey Day is with the sound off - that is, if your family can carry on decent conversation. If you're relying on the game to provide a spark...have a couple of extra drinks and act the fool. You'll feel bad...but at least you'll have something to talk about!
On to the game. Yeah. Uh...let's see. Detroit could win this game only if an asteroid comes from space and blows...no, that's too mean. The entire Titans team comes down with a flu. Of course, that means the entire 53-man roster because I think the Titans second team could beat the Lions. Oh well. On to the next game...
Seattle at Dallas. You can't fault the schedule-makers for this one - I don't think anyone expected Seattle to be this bad. Injuries have played a huge role in that, but still, the 'Hawks are barely registering a pulse, and Dallas looks infused by Romo's return. Good news for the Boys - they need the wins! I can't even say this will be an entertaining game, because I think it'll be a fast start for Dallas before it slows down to a crawl with Dallas running like crazy and the 'Hawks throwing like crazy. Hard to think this game will be very competitive.
Which leaves us with the finale. As games go, this one isn't too bad - at least Philly resembles a team with some substance, and the Cards are doing well. But I think the game is going to be a sidebar to watching the Philly fans. They will be far more entertaining than the game itself. Donovan McNabb steps under center and is booed. He's booed during pre-game. He's booed lustily after his first incompletion, and the snowballs will come out after his first interception. Now, he throws a TD and the fans will cheer, but more will jeer. Where was that all season they'll scream at McNabb. I spoke to clients from Philly today. In the background, all I heard was "The Eagles SUCK!" Yeah, lifelong Eagles fans. Trust me, the fans will be far, FAR more entertaining than the game. However, to give the game it's due, it ought to be a pretty decent affair. For one thing, Philly's not atrocious - they have been atrociously inconsistent, and have no power running game to speak of. So far, every east coast, cold weather city in which Arizona has played this year (even when the weather was cooperative) has been a messy one for the Cards - the Jets destruction comes to mind. So the fair-weather birds come north into a snowy, windy, wet, cold stadium filled with angry fans. The naps will have been taken, and the imbibing begun. It will be nasty. I almost wish I could be there. I think a game at the Linc would be an experience, personally. The Cards need to win a game like this - certainly they want to jump on the Eagles quickly knowing that if they do, the crowd will turn ugly and on the Eagles just like that. Irritate the crowd and win the game. I think the Cards can do it - Philly's a soap opera again, and it's just a matter of time before the fingers begin pointing.
As for McNabb, I think he can't wait for this season to be over, for the Eagles management to look at his estimated $10.36 million dollar cap hit, and ship him out of Philly all expenses paid. I think it will be a relief for McNabb. For 10 years, he's endured some of the worst that fans can give. He's enduring losing and the inevitable questions that come after losing the biggest of the big games. He's enduring putting a team on his shoulders and guiding them to successful season after season despite not having a true power running back nor a true #1 receiver. The only year in which he had a true #1 receiver the Eagles made the Super Bowl and came close to winning it. It's hard to imagine what his career stats might have been if only Philly had balanced their offense a little and drafted just a little better at the WR position. Hell, even a grinding receiver like Hines Ward would have represented a significant upgrade to Philly's WR corps. So McNabb is going to be free of the Eagles, and their fans. I can think of a couple places where he might land. Already mentioned has been both Minnesota and Chicago. The entire NFC North most emphatically does not want a QB of McNabb's caliber in Minnesota. If that team actually had a passing game to go along with Peterson's running ability, they go from a middle-of-the-pack, wild-card type team to a top contender in the NFC. The same is true if he lands in Chicago, where he easily unseats both Orton and Grossman. He could land in San Francisco, but that would represent more of the same for him, so I doubt that. I would've said before this year he travels a few miles south and lands in Baltimore, but Flacco seems to have stopped that trend cold. KC needs a QB, but they lack so many other things that it's unlikely McNabb would want to tread water for a year or two just hoping the team can build around him. No, I think McNabb will find himself a team that is on the cusp of greatness. A team that already has many building blocks in place to make a run, and only needs the last key elements to kick it over the edge. I think that he needs to find a home where the fans suddenly adore him and treat him with respect, unlike what he's seen in Philly for so many years. This isn't a blanket condemnation of Philly fans - there are many that really rallied behind him, and treated him with respect. But those that disliked McNabb carried the louder voices - and so they've been heard.
To me, I think McNabb's best landing spot is Minnesota. Oh, I can't imagine that team with him. I think he alone represents 4 or 5 more wins for them. 1 on his own, and 3 or 4 more just because the Minnesota offense needs to be treated with that much more respect. Chicago is next, and he gives them 2-4 more wins. Other teams that for whom importing McNabb would result in a QB upgrade: Miami, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Detroit, Tampa Bay, San Francisco and St. Louis. Maybe Arizona if Kurt Warner finally hangs it up. One thing's for sure - whether it's by trade or through an outright release, McNabb will be one of the more interesting off-season moves to discuss this year. I have no idea where he'll end up - maybe he'll go to a team with an entrenched starter, wait a year as the backup and then get his release, although I think that's an unlikely scenario. But the one thing that I think is 100% guaranteed is that no matter where McNabb plays next year, it's not for Philadelphia.
Seems that several teams in the AFC have distanced themselves from the pack, and are all charging hard towards the post-season. While earlier in the season it seemed that the AFC had taken a back seat to the NFC, that's not quite as evident right now. I think that any of the three current division leaders that actually play good football would give any NFC division leader a run for their money or more.
New York Jets. With an 8-3 record, and a 3-1 divisional record (splitting against the Pats), they are in the envious position of having one game in hand on the Pats, and easier record down the stretch, and the knowledge that they just delivered a wallop to the NFL's lone unbeaten team. The Jets are pulling together exactly how they had hoped to do so - their defense is stout against the run, and they are running the ball well behind a stud offensive line. It doesn't even matter that they have Brett Favre, although his play of late certainly suggests that he has a lot of good football left in the tank. The Jets face an interesting game this Sunday, hosting the Denver Broncos in a division leader game. They then host both Buffalo and Miami between taking on two woeful NFC West teams. If there is a flaw in their schedule, it's that they have to travel to the West Coast for their two away games. But they play the Niners and Seahawks, and neither team should pose a tremendous test for the Jets. The Jets have built themselves a cold-weather, playoff-style team. It's certainly possible, maybe even likely, that the Jets finish the season going 5-0. Should they do so, I think it's safe to say that they'd wrap up the #2 seed in the playoffs and get a week off as an added bonus. In the AFC, with the teams that could potentially lie in wait as Wild Card entrants, that week off will be huge.
Pittsburgh Steelers. Also with an 8-3 record and a 4-0 divisional record, the Steelers are definitely in the driver's seat in the North. The trouble is that while the Jets have an easy schedule to the end, the Steelers is growing more difficult by the day. The next four games in a row they face likely playoff teams, or teams very much in the hunt for the playoffs. They go to New England this coming Sunday, then host Dallas, go to Baltimore and then Tennessee before finally finishing up with Cleveland. If - make that IF in huge font - the Steelers manage to somehow go 5-0 in this stretch, then I don't care what anyone says, they are by far the best team in the AFC. But they won't. So that likely puts them in a long battle with Baltimore, and then hosting a Wild Card game without the benefit of a week off. The Steelers difficult schedule is still working against them. The Steelers have the right mix of elements to win even the Super Bowl - the great defense, the solid offense, the very good special teams - but they need to be a special team in order to get out of this AFC. And when we get into wild card discussions, they'll need every last bit of chemistry, strength, character and ability they have!
The Tennessee Titans (10-1) have their season and schedule lined up to the be the #1 seed in the AFC. The doubters surfaced after the Jets trounced them, but the Titans are built to win playoff games. Losing a game during the regular season won't matter to them, and I think that if given the chance, Jeff Fisher would rest players if they sew up the #1 seed early - and they have a full game in hand over the Jets to they have breathing room. The Titans play awful Detroit, bad Cleveland, bad Houston, a very good Steelers team (which is an obvious AFC playoff preview) and finish up with the Colts. Even if they lose to the Steelers, they'll still have plenty of games over the Colts, so they are basically assured of winning the South unless the wheels come completely, fully off of the wagon. Hard to imagine that happening, especially with how well this team plays defense.
At 6-5, the Denver Broncos are leading the West and in-line to host a playoff game, that much is true. But compared to the other 3 division winners, and the 3 leading contenders for the Wild Card, the Broncos don't measure up. They're not running the ball well, and their run defense is just bad. But here's the thing with Denver - they have a challenging schedule to end their season, and while it would be rather sad, it's highly possible that the Chargers can pass them. The Broncos go to the Jets, then host KC before going to Carolina in what ought to be a very tough game for them. Then they host Buffalo before ending in San Diego. Can you imagine a game in which both the Broncos and Chargers are 7-8 and playing for the AFC West title? I can.
Wild Card
3 teams have identical 7-4 marks, with two more at 6-5 and stalking horses in this race.
The Pats at 7-4 are a game behind the Jets, but have 2 division losses to the Jets 1, so it's unlikely for the Pats to take over the lead. The Pats have 2 difficult games, but luckily for them host them both. The Steelers game this Sunday will be a true measuring stick game. Beat the Steelers, and take charge in the AFC. Lose, and the doubters surface again. Then they host the Cardinals, which will be tough, but the Cards don't play well away from home, and it's a 1PM game, making things even more difficult for the Cards. But games against the Seahawks and Raiders look to be easier wins, before finishing up with the Bills. It's hard to predict this team -the same achilles' heel that did the Pats in last year (no running game) is back again. Plus, Matt Cassel is kind of tough to forecast. He's doing more than an admirable job, but he's not Tom Brady. Still, the Pats are the one team that I think all AFC teams would prefer to see lose and miss the playoffs. They're too scary.
Also at 7-4 are the Indianapolis Colts. Peyton Manning's knee seems better, the Colts offense is playing well, and the Colts defense is playing well even when missing Bob Sanders. In a word: YIKES. Plus, the Colts have 3 stinkers in a row - the Browns in Cleveland, hosting the Bengals and hosting Detroit. The Colts will easily be 10-4 and keeping pace, and perhaps overtaking to grab the #1 Wild Card spot (#5 overall). The season finale against the Titans could be a huge measuring stick game, or could be a mutt - it will depend on whether or not the Titans have already secured the first overall and choose to rest their players. The Colts are the other team that has a very realistic chance of running the table to end the season. A Colts team on a 10-game tear entering the playoffs would scare everyone.
At 7-4, the Ravens need some help, and like the Steelers face an uphill battle. But unlike the Steelers, the Ravens face both an uphill battle AND need a little help. Their last "easy" game comes this weekend, going to Cincy. Then two home games against Washington and Pittsburgh before a trip to Dallas to play the 'Boys. They end at home against the Jags. The Ravens may have to set their sights on overtaking the Steelers in the North as their best hope - it's almost impossible to imagine the Colts faltering, and slightly harder to envision the Pats doing the same. But it's entirely possible that the Steelers stumble, and they get to play the Steelers at home. That will be a typically nasty game - maybe beyond nasty. Worrisome however is the fact that when the Ravens lose, they do so in rather spectacular fashion.
The Dolphins and Bills are both at 6-5 and both need significant help. The Bills at 0-4 in the East are probably dead in the water - there are too many good teams that have better records. The same is probably true of the Dolphins. It's possible that either Baltimore or Pittsburgh stumble, but unlikely that both the Pats and Colts will, and right now those two teams are in the driver's seat for the playoffs. So while both teams have had nice seasons, but given away some games here and there, they shouldn't hang their heads. Maybe wish they played in the West...
Predicted order of playoffs 1. Tennessee (14-2) 2. New York Jets (13-3) 3. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) 4. Denver Broncos (9-7) 5. Indianapolis Colts (12-4) 6. New England Patriots (11-5)
Denver at Atlanta - this could very well be a very, very entertaining game. The Broncos had to work pretty hard to defeat Cleveland last week, but they did so without having any actual running backs in the game. It was the kind of game that should make this team feel pretty good about itself. The trouble is that Atlanta won their divisional game against New Orleans last week, and are feeling pretty high on themselves as well. This is a strength on weakness game - Atlanta's brutal rushing attack against Denver's feeble defense. The game is in Atlanta, which will make it even more difficult for Denver to earn a road win. Denver's one nugget of hope here is that Atlanta - being young and probably not understand everything required to win consistently in the NFL - could be ripe for an upset. Still, I'm not yet a true believer in the Falcons, but I'm being turned slowly. And Denver's not been on my high list all year. Atlanta wins this game.
Detroit at Carolina. The Panthers are atop the South with a 7-2 record and Detroit is winless and looking all the world like they could be that 0-16 team that's discussed every year. It's in Carolina and Detroit is just plain awful. Cats win.
Philly at Cincinnati - the Eagles lost a close one to the Giants, and the Bengals have not put up much resistance this year, especially to teams featuring strong defenses. The Eagles have their problems - the running game in short-yardage key among them - but they are a much better more complete team than the Bengals. Philly wins.
New Orleans at Kansas City. Sure, KC is a tough place to play and win, and yes, the Chiefs have been playing better ball of late. They've still lost. The Saints have been up and down all year, and while this is a game that they should win, it's hard to predict this team. Larry Johnson is returning for the Chiefs, which should help some. For some reason I'm going with the upset here, and picking KC to win it.
Baltimore at the New York Giants. A rare 1PM game of the day. This ought to be brutal, slug-it-out kind of game. The Ravens are tied for the lead in the AFC North, and have featured Ravens ball all year - with the added benefit of having an improved offense. The Giants are a dominant squad, especially in the NFC, and this clash of two excellent teams figures to be a very good one. How the Ravens offense handles the Giants' pressure defense will be the deciding factor I think - the Ravens D can and should be able to play the Giants O to at least a draw - figure the Giants get 21 points. Can the Ravens find a way to earn at least 22 on the road? Here's where the Ravens schedule gets very tough - and I think they lose this one to the G-Men.
Minnesota at Tampa Bay. The Bucs are quietly at 6-3 and the Vikings are in a tie for first with a 5-4 record. This ought to be a tight, entertaining game if you like defensive football. Both teams play similar styles - the Tampa/Cover 2 defense and have good, tough running backs. Tampa has an edge in QB play, so figure the Bucs earn a close, home win by a FG.
Oakland at Miami. Miami wins, handling the sad sack Raiders with relative ease. The Dolphins do that and they pull into a tie with the Patriots, and remain in the thick of things in the AFC East and AFC Wild Card in general.
Chicago at Green Bay - the game oldest rivalry renews at 1, and this should be a very good game. The Bears are solid in all phases, even though their defense is not quite as good as it has been. The Packers are not as good this year as they were last year, but QB play does have that much to do with it. Some injuries and some adjustments I think have put the Pack back in the pack (pun intended). Figure Chicago starts their post-season run now by beating the packers in Green Bay.
Houston at Indy - the Colts are hitting their stride and the Texans are a lost cause again. Indy wins.
St. Louis at San Francisco. Only fans of these two teams will watch this game. Oh, the Niners win 'cuz they're at home.
Arizona at Seattle. The Cards win this despite not being all that great on the road. They're learning to win the big, should-win games (like last week's MNF game) and this will be another little step in the right direction.
Tennessee at Jacksonville - yeah, a big game here. The Jags are on the verge of being out of the AFC Wild Card race, so they have no choice but to win this game. The Titans are a menacing team, and look all the world like they're going to represent the AFC in the SUper Bowl if things continue on the same path. I think Jack Del Rio has lost his team a bit, and that makes winning all that much more difficult. The Titans sweep the season series and win in Jax.
San Diego at Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost a very winnable game against Indy - their mistakes were critical and to Indy's credit, they took advantage. Now the Steelers face a very inconsistent team, but one that is easily capable of waltzing into Heinz Field and delivering a nasty, unwelcome beating. They have the talent. They're just inconsistent. They have a good passing game, and the Steelers secondary is depleted due to injury. How Ben plays will determine this game - his performances this year all together have been not very good. Unless he improves, the Steelers slide continues. But I think Ben rights the ship to some degree and the Steelers will win this game.
Dallas at Washington. Dallas has to win - lose and you can count them among the near-dead in the NFC playoff race. The Skins have already beaten them, and at 6-3 need this win to try and keep pace with the Giants. The Cowboys get Romo back, and they should be energized by his return and their week off the bye, but I think that Dallas' lack of overall team character and chemistry will hurt them. I think the Redskins win this game.
On MNF, the Browns and Bills collide. Two teams on downward paths, and the Bills can right their ship to some degree with a win. But the book seems to be out on the Bills, and Brady Quinn obviously game the Browns some much-needed confidence. If the Browns defense was any better, they'd be in the mix in the North. I think the Bills win this rare MNF home game and keep pace in the AFC East.
So my wife and I took our son to the Pens game. They played the Flyers last night. It was his second Pens game, and he's not yet eighteen months old - we're training him up early. Anyway, the game last night was very odd. In the second period, it honestly looked like the Pens could do nothing wrong in the first five minutes, and then couldn't do anything right in the last fifteen. Philly's four unanswered goals (1 PP, 2 SHG, 1 5o5) sucked the life out of the arena as quick as could be. The Pens couldn't generate scoring chances, and the fans around me began fearing power play opportunitites. Simon Gagne had himsel####reat night. But the Pens rallied to win. It's always good to get those 2 points against divisional teams.
It's early, and of course you can't draw many conclusions from only one game, but I thought going into this season that Philly was going to be a very, very good hockey team. And as I left last night, that same thought occurred to me, and I have no reason not to disagree. Moving the captaincy to Richards was a no-brainer, and with that lineup and skill and grit, Philly presents so many challenges to teams. This is a team built for a long Stanley Cup playoff run. Obviously it's very early, but to me it certainly looks like Boston and Philly both improved over last year, and Montreal and Pittsburgh are at least holding their ground. The East will be awfully competitive. Something to look forward to in the doldrums of winter for all hockey fans!
Then, after we got home, I flipped on ESPN to see that Miami eked out a 2-point win over VaTech. I can't comment on that game at all - I only saw the kneel-down play. But the announcers mentioned how Miami is on a 5-game win streak and to them it looks like the swagger is returning to Miami. That's good for college football - no team is more fun to hate than Miami!
Finally, I flipped to the Jets/Pats game. To my great surprise, the Jets held a 3-point lead at the start of the 4th quarter. The two drives that the Jets engineered to take the TD lead late in the 4th and then to win it in OT were picture perfect drives. They did everything right - the 3rd and 15 conversion in OT was probably the game-changing play. The announcers scorched the Pats for blowing a coverage; Favre said after the game that he saw the Pats change their coverage to a deep zone, even saying he saw Belichick tell his troops to drop back from the sidelines. So maybe it was both a combination of a blown zone and the softer coverage that allowed the conversion. Either way, it was a blow to the Pats who looked all the world like they were in a position to deliver a knock-out type blow to the Jets when Moss caught that beautiful TD pass with 1 second left. Again, the announcers were flummoxed at the change in the Jets defensive patterns for that play. I don't know exactly what the Jets were thinking either, but the one thing I will say is that for that play to work, it had to be absolutely perfect - a precision pass to one and only one spot where only a great, gifted receiver could make the catch. So yeah, it sucks for Jets fans to have seen that play, but even they would have to admit that it was so perfect that it deserved to be the TD pass that it was.
This past weekend is the reason why I don't trash talk. It's also the reason why sometimes I find it so difficult to watch football. Your hopes are crushed by bad performances and fluky turns of the ball. When you only get 3 hours or so a week to feel deeply emotionally involved with your team, when that team goes out and lays an egg it just ruins your whole day, your whole weekend and now it's ruined my entire Monday. As if Monday's weren't bad enough, the two teams that I follow and have the most ties to - Penn State and the Pittsburgh Steelers - were both done in by horrible QB play and some really strange bounces. On top of this, I'm fighting a chest cold. I hate Mondays.
You just knew that Penn State had a bad game in them somewhere. I knew it. Everyone knew it. The question was, were they good enough a team to overcome that bad game. As we know now, the answer to that is no. Iowa played a hell of a football game on Saturday. They came into the game ready and charged up, and their defense was tough all game. The Penn State offense and defense just looked pretty bad all day, and Daryll Clark's 4th quarter INT gave the Hawkeyes the chance they needed. To their credit, they capitalized on it, and won the game. Any national championship hopes for Penn State were crushed - the only way to still maintain a national championship dream is to lose early. Losing late kills you.
Then Pittsburgh went out yesterday and lost. Four plays. The TD pass to Reggie Wayne - tipped by Ike Taylor (as an aside, if he could actually catch, he'd be mentioned as one of the greatest corners to ever play the game. He drops at least 10 would-be interceptions a year. Trust me on this) and as luck would have it, the tipped ball bounced right into Wayne's hands, and he sped off for the TD. Then Troy Polamalu had a pick slip through his fingers. Ben's two interceptions were the difference, though. They both set up Indy inside Pittsburgh's 40, and one thing Peyton Manning has done his entire career is capitalize on mistakes like that. Ben set 'em up; Peyton finished 'em off.
Justin Tuck got hit with a $7,500 fine along with a penalty for making a picture-perfect sack of the QB last week. News just announced was that LaMarr Woodley of Pittsburgh received a $10,000 for an unflagged sack of the QB. Look here and watch for sack #5. It was rough, yes. But hell, it's tackle football. Not flag football.
Evidently, however, the NFL brass believes that the game must now be FAIRY football - and I use that because Troy Polamalu's description of PANSY doesn't fit in the title. It's just plain stupid of the league to be handing out these fines for perfectly legal plays. Tuck's penalty call was equally ridiculous. It's sad that the NFL evidently believes that the ferocity of the game is suddenly something to be penalized instead of being celebrated.
This evening, the 1 of the Cleveland Browns heralded 2007 draft makes his first official NFL start. Yes, Brady Quinn is the quarterback of the Browns. At least for one game.
The Browns have been a disappointment this year. The offense - stellar last year - has spluttered badly this year. Fingers are being pointed all over the place - the offensive line, Derek Anderson, the running game and Braylon Edwards. Kellen Winslow III has been a distraction from time to time. The Browns opened this pre-season with four resounding "thud" losses, and haven't been able to get anything on track offensively. With a defense that's improving but not yet among the better units in the league, the lack of offensive production has directly led to Cleveland's 3-5 record.
Tonight - whether it was a decision finally made by the coaching staff, the GM or the ownership - the next future QB of the Browns makes his debut. Riding on his performance are the careers of GM Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennel. There is simply no way to sugar coat it. Either Quinn can help right this offense, or Crennel and/or Savage will be gone, and Cleveland will start new. Again.
The fans have grown quite uneasy with the state of the Browns franchise, and with good reason. Anderson looked tremendous to start the year last year, and the Browns 10-6 record certainly looked all the world like a jumping off point for the team. Their 0-3 start this year immediately derailed that, and the fans are growing angrier by the minute. But watching the performance on the field is why. Anderson's ability at the position has looked simply bad this year. Why? That's hard to say. Defenses have a book on him now, and work to make him throw to players and routes that he doesn't like. His accuracy has been horrible. He's made bad decisions. They all add up to him getting benched in favor of Quinn. But is that the right person to blame?
Anderson deserves a lot of the blame. He's underperformed, to be kind. Braylon Edwards deserves even more blame. Leading the league in drops is a very poor stat, and several of his drops have been just atrocious. Yet, he's still your best receiver. You bench him, and the Browns offense loses a deep threat. Why has Edwards had the drops? Your guess is as good as mine. Maybe he's not focused enough. Maybe Anderson's ball isn't to his liking. Maybe he's just not as good a receiver as everyone thinks he is.
Romeo Crennel is taking a big chance by starting Quinn. He will likely get a short-term rise in offensive productivity - I think that Quinn may inject an excitement into this unit that has not had any spark all year. He very well may be a better overall QB than Anderson, too, but the real key here is whether or not the Cleveland Brown brass will accept the learning pains that goes along with starting a young quarterback for his first season. The Browns offense is not good enough in any one area to help protect a young quarterback. The Falcons have a punishing ground attack, making Matt Ryan's start easier. The Ravens have a punishing defense and ruly on the run game, making it easier for Joe Flacco to learn on the fly. The Browns don't have a punishing running game. They have good skill players, but they've been inconsistent, too. Their line has not been as consistent this year. And now a second-year player gets his first start - his first live action, the first disguised coverage schemes and blitz packages. All of the film work will be important, but until you get out there and see it and do it, you just don't know. So yes, Crennel and Savage are taking big risks - the type that defines a year. If Quinn plays even to expectations, and the Browns somehow manage to right this season, then their jobs are safe. If he plays well for a couple of weeks and then looks horrible, and drops the Cleveland record to a 6-10 mark, say, then you can equally bet Crennel will be walking the sideline somewhere next year, but as a defensive coordinator and on a different team. That's just how it's going to be.
Personally, I kind of hope Brady Quinn plays well. I hope that the Browns find some spark and get better. I don't root for Cleveland, mind you, but I much prefer to watch good football teams play the game. I hate watching bad teams. It's just not good football, and this decision I hope is about improving the team and the quality of their play. I'll be watching tonight to see how Quinn does. I imagine that all Cleveland faithful are wondering some of the same things, too, and you can bet they'll be paying close attention. Now how much understanding to they give him? That remains to be seen, too.
With the election win by Barack Obama, does this mean...
...that basketball will rise in prominence because Mr. Obama is a big fan, plays regularly and has claimed that he will install a court in the White House when he takes residence? As an aside, I wonder what the politicians in the White House will do when Obama draws up the NCAA basketball pools. Will he have them on the desk with the TV on in the background, using it as a moment to moment distraction? Inquiring minds want to know...
...how will sports agents work the last month and a half-plus of the year? Obama is on record stating that taxes will increase, probably back to the 1986 brackets that were in place when Bill Clinton left office. The maximum bracket will go back up to 39.6%. Now if you're Scott Boras and handling a negoiation, and you know that if your client gets paid in 2008, you can claim to your client that you saved him 4.6% in taxes. If you were working on a $10 million dollar contract, that 4.6% equates to a tax savings of $460,000. I wonder how many football players that are hoping to land contract extensions will be calling their agents today, telling the agent that the player will accept slightly less money...if the contract is signed, sealed and delivered by the end of the calendar year 2008?
Now onto football.
The AFC is a mess this year. Only 6 of 16 teams have winning records. 9 of 16 teams have non-losing records. In comparison, 9 of 16 teams in the NFC have winning records, and add two more for non-losing records. The AFC has been really kind of strange. Brady's injury has taken the mystique from the Pats. They are still a quality team, but the loss of Brady has hurt them in many more ways than just offensive production. It's much harder to win when you have a pedestrian quarterback rather than a future hall of famer slinging the ball. The Colts have struggled mightily this year. This a direct result of Peyton Manning's struggles. Are his knee problems to blame, or has age begun to creep up on the Colts? The Chargers are a real mess. I think the blame here rests mostly on their coach Norv Turner. He's simply not a good head coach. As a coordinator he's fine, but leading the team does not seem to be his strongest point. There's no other explanation for a team that has that much talent to have a 3-5 record and looking lost more often than not. They have the talent to turn it around completely, but they'll have to win despite their head coach - not an easy task in the NFL.
The AFC also has 3 of the 5 worst teams in the NFL - the Bungles, the Chiefs and the Raiders. The Raiders are embarrassing. The Bungles and Chiefs are bad, yes, but they have some measure of hope. The Raiders have none.
A pleasant AFC surprise could be the Baltimore Ravens. They were not expected to do much, and expectations were lowered even more when they installed rookie QB Joe Flacco into the starting position. Yet Baltimore is hanging tough in the AFC North with a solid 5-3 record. Their 3 losses are to Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Indy - all AFC pre-season favorites. Their wins against Cleveland (twice), Cincy, Miami and Oakland aren't all that impressive, but to get to the playoffs you have to win against the teams you should beat, and strive for an even record against equal or superior teams. However, the Ravens have not yet played one game against the NFC East teams this year. So far Pittsburgh's gone 1-2 against the NFC East. If Baltimore can equal or better the interconference record, then the Baltimore Birdies will look more like the real deal than anyone else.
Another pleasant AFC surprise are the Tennessee Titans. They were expected to have a great defense again - Jeff Fisher coached teams usually do have top defenses. But their offensive production, especially in the running game, has really spurred them to the 8-0 start. Their big wins against Indy, Baltimore, Jacksonville and Green Bay all look pretty good. They're a low-scoring team that prefers to play the close, tight games. Expect some real battles later in this season when the Titans play the Jags, Jets, Bears, Colts & Steelers.
Disappointing teams abound in the AFC. I mentioned the Chargers already, who are clearly leading the way in this department. Following closely however are the Cleveland Browns. More than one person picked the Browns to unseat the Steelers as AFC North champions. However, a 3-5 record, and perhaps more importantly only a 1-3 record in the AFC North puts the Brownies in a deep, dark hole. They can recover and get back to perhaps a winning record, but their schedule is brutal down the stretch. They face Denver, Buffalo, Indy, Tennessee, Philly and end the season on the road in Pittsburgh. Now the Broncos, Bills and Colts have not been world-beaters lately, but they are all still quality teams. The Browns have to find ways of winning some of these games if they want to right the season.
As it stands now, Tennessee holds the #1 spot, and Pittsburgh the #2 spot. The Colts and Chargers are out of playoff contention if the season ends today. Denver would earn the #4 spot with their 4-4 record, and the Jets, Pats, Bills & Ravens would fill out the last 3 spots. I don't know who the odd team out would be. That would be quite a change from last year, wouldn't it?
As for the NFC, there are some tremendous surprises in this conference, but I think the biggest "big picture" surprise is the relative strength of the NFC this year. There are many teams that have looked much better than expected - the Bears, the Falcons, the entire NFC South. Aaron Rodgers is doing a great job in Green Bay, much to the delight and relief of Packer faithful (and Packer executives).
The biggest disappointment at the mid-way point in the NFC is the Dallas Cowboys. For a team to be so loaded talent-wise and only post a 5-4 record is almost mind-boggling. They have a myraid of problems, though. While others have broken down the various failures at various positions, the one key element that this team seems to be missing is chemistry. They don't have any kind of role players - the kind of gritty, team-first guys that hold the team together internally. What they have are a bunch of ultra-talented stars who have no idea how to play together as a group, and how to rally as a group. This is a very bad spot for Dallas, because even if they put together a streak and win a bunch of games in a row (which their talent allows them to do), they will probably get smacked around in the playoffs when they face better *teams*.
The biggest surprise in the NFC, and in the entire NFL, is the play of the Atlanta Falcons, and most of all, the play of rookie QB Ryan. He's been simply great considering how rookie QBs usually fare in the NFL. It's important to note that the Falcons and Titans both are relying upon brutal running games and efficient passing to win games. Ryan's ability to play smart has helped put the Falcons in the position to win. I still don't see them posting a second-half 5-3 record and earning a playoff spot, but the maturation of this team has to be applauded. The mess that Michael Vick and Bobby Petrino left has been essentially erased completely by this team's start, and for Falcon executives, that has got to be the best part of the whole thing.
There's no way to tell how the NFC playoff picture will fill out except perhaps for two teams. I don't see any way that the Giants miss the playoffs. They're playing too well overall to hit any kind of late-season swoon that costs them a spot. Their two-game lead in the East in the loss column gives them a nice cushion. They still have 4 games left against NFC East foes, a trip to the desert (pardon me for actually thinking this) which could be a playoff preview game, and tricky games against Baltimore and Carolina. The Cardinals are the other shoe-in playoff team. Not that they are that good, but their division is woeful. What is it about the West divisions this year? Both of them are simply atrocious! Still, the fact that people are even writing about the Cardinals and playoffs in the same sentence is rather striking.
My top 10 power rankings. Just for the hell of it... 1. New York Giants. A 7-1 record, and their utter destruction of the Cowboys put an exclamation mark on how solid this team is. 2. Tennessee Titans. No team has a meaner defense, and their solid run game positions them perfectly for a playoff run. 3. Pittsburgh Steelers. They played the Giants tight with plenty of starters missing, and then imposed their will on the Redskins. This team's defense is truly worthy of their #1 ranking. 4. Carolina Panthers. Huh? Yes, quietly the Cats are 6-2 and sitting atop the tough NFC South. 5. Philadelphia Eagles. 3 wins in a row will vault you up the power rankings. 6. Arizona Cardinals. The NFL's most prolific scoring offense, and they play exceptionally well at home. 7. Chicago Bears. An offense to finally go with their strong defense brings the Bears up the list. 8. New York Jets. A 5-3 record despite Brett Favre is pretty good. 9. Washington Redskins. Despite the Steelers loss, this is a solid, tough team that showing signs of overall improvement. 10. New England Patriots. 5-3 without Tom Brady is probably as good as Pats fans can expect.
Looking down the road at this Sunday's games...
Denver at Cleveland (Thursday Night). Can Brady Quinn inject some magic into this team? The Browns face a Broncos team that had a bad defense to begin with, and are now missing key elements. The Browns should be able to move the ball and score even with a first-ever start for Quinn. As for the Broncos, they need to get that vaunted running game actually working. The good thing for them is that the Browns are not stellar against the run. This could turn into a shootout right quick. I think that the Browns get some revenge, and playing at home in front of a pseudo-national audience, and the excitement of seeing Quinn for the first time propels the Brownies to a big win.
The stinker game of the week: Jacksonville (3-5) at Detroit (0-8). This was supposed to be the easiest stretch of the Jags schedule, yet they've dropped 2 of the 3. Can Detroit get off the schneid and completely dismantle the Jags season?
Games to watch if nothing else is on. Baltimore (5-3) at Houston (3-5). The Texans face yet another tough defense, and that without their starting QB. Baltimore is on a bit of a roll, and need to keep pace with Pittsburgh. This should not be a close game, regardless of whatever the final score is. Ravens win.
Seattle (2-6) at Miami (4-4). The Dolphins are respectible this year, and that has everything to do with Parcells' quick make-over of this team into one in his usual mold. Strong defense, tough running game. The 'Hawks injury woes have crushed this team, and going cross-country to play a 1PM game in the heat in Miami will make things even worse. Joey Porter will get 2 more sacks as the Dolphins take care of business at home.
St. Lous (2-6) at New York Jets (5-3). The Rams have injury problems, a bad team and coaching chaos. The Jets have Brett Favre - for better or worse. Expect a better game against a Rams defense without any teeth whatsoever. Jets win.
Carolina (6-2) at Oakland (2-6). The Raiders got 77 yards in offense last week. Expect about the same this week. The Cats rip Oakland, and further demonstrate that Oakland's entire franchise is in complete disarray from owner to players.
Kansas City (1-7) at San Diego (3-5). The Chargers are desperate for a win, but Kansas City's been playing much better lately. They are as bad as their record indicates, but they're taking the steps in the right direction. Still, the Chargers get some relief as they win this one.
San Francisco (2-6) at Arizona (5-3) [MNF]. Too bad that ESPN scheduled this one as a Monday Nighter. This won't be a game for long - the Cards are good at home, and the Niners are not very good overall. What will Mike Singletary do this week?
Good games
New Orleans (4-4) at Atlanta (5-3). The Saints have suffered through some injuries and bad luck to start the season. They face a very surprising, resurgent Falcons led by rookie QB Matt Ryan. The Falcons NFL leading rushing attack against a rather pedestrian run defense will be the big key to this game. The Falcons pass defense is ranked 16th overall, and faces the NFL's #1 passing attack. The key to keeping the Atlanta defense off the field is to run the ball down New Orleans throat. If the Falcons can get that done, then they have a very good chance to win. But Drew Brees is having a fantastic season, and the Saints are ready to start a late-season charge. The Falcons are still too young and uncertain to hold their own. So it's close, but New Orleans will take this win.
Green Bay (4-4) at Minnesota (4-4). Mike Childress has never beaten Green Bay as the Vikings head coach. The Packers played very tough against the Titans, but lost out in the end, and now the Packers have to face Adrian Peterson. The Vikes passing game has improved with Gus Ferotte leading the way. This should be a tight contest with a lot of hard hits and bad blood. These two teams don't like each other much, and the Vikings would love to put the Packers season on life support by winning. I just don't see it happening though. The Packers are the better team overall, and will win this one in the end.
Buffalo (5-3) at New England (5-3). After a sizzling start, the Bills have cooled of####reat deal, and go into a hostile environment against a quality team. The Pats have been up and down this year, showing weaknesses in areas where they've not been weak before. The loss of Brady has done that, but the Pats are still a fundamentally sound football team. The Bills are young and are learning how to win these late-season playoff-type games. The thing is I just don't see that happening. The Pats are still a good team and play very well at home. I expect a narrow Pats victory here.
Indianapolis (4-4) at Pittsburgh (6-2). The Steelers brutal stretch continues. The Colts have not looked very good this year - very inconsistent. Why? Peyton Manning's been inconsistent. The Steelers and Colts have not played against each other too much, but the Steelers defense will be ready for all of Peyton's arm-flapping and game calling. The difference is that the Steelers defense is simply brutally awesome, and their pass-rush this year has been keyed not by the blitz, but by the emergence of their two young OLBs. If the Steelers continue to generate pressure with only their front four, the Colts are in a heap of trouble. They won't do as well on the unfriendly grasses of Heinz Field on either side of the ball, and the Steelers offensive line looks like it is finally jelling into a decent unit. The Steelers are playing very solid football, and will continue by beating the Colts this Sunday.
MUST SEE GAMES
Tennessee (8-0) at Chicago (5-3). Easily the second best game of the weekend. The Titans are a menacing football team, and they are custom-built for going on the road and stealing road wins. They will face a defense that's among the NFL's better units but not statistically as strong as they've been in past years. The Titans defense will face an offense that's better, and a Chicago team that's near the top of the NFL in total scoring. This will be an old-school style game, where the running game and run-stopping defenses take center stage. The Titans are not going undefeated this year, and I think that Chicago hands them their first loss of the season.
New York Giants (7-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-3). Last week the Giants crushed the Cowboys. The Eagles come into this game winners of their past three in a row. What gives? On Sunday Night, fans of the NFL will be treated to an old-school, rock em' sock 'em style game. Both teams have tough defenses that inflict pain and bring the heat. These two teams know each other very well, so there won't be any surprises. It will be pure strength on strength here, and this should result in a very exciting but low-scoring affair. The Giants offense is very good, led by Eli Manning. They are #2 in the running game and have the #2 scoring offense. Philly has the #8 scoring defense and #5 defense in yards given up. The Giants are #4 in scoring defense, and the Eagles are #5 in scoring offense. Both teams are very good, that much is obvious. The Eagles faithful - boosted by the Phillies winning a long overdue championship - will be at full volume hatred, and the Giants better be ready for it. Because the Eagles are home, I'm picking them.
We live in an information age, with technology so advanced that we can watch television over the internet if we want. We have many options when it comes to watching television - cable, phone companies and their DSL-based systems, and satellite. But it's horrendeous when your DSL-based television system is DOA because your modem is DOA, and on television that night is only one of the biggest college football games of the year. So my up to the second analysis of the game comes straight from the analog era - via the radio call from the Penn State boys. Granted, I switched back and forth between the radio broadcast and streaming internet radio, but I had no option except to listen. Going to a bar to watch the game wasn't an option because of personal things going on in my life right now.
The game was sensational from the radio side. It was tight, hard-fought, and obviously the play was at a very high level. It sounded like both defenses were playing absolutely top-notch football - things you'd except normally from both Penn State and Ohio State. And as the game wore on, the only thing that really mattered was the lone killer turn-over, a forced fumble that Penn State recovered and then turned into the game's only TD.
Penn State has found Columbus to be a personal house of horrors. They've never scored more than 10 points there since joining the Big Ten, and a few years ago Adam Tallafiero suffered a horrible injury to his spine at that stadium. Usually Penn State loses because Ohio State is simply the better team - either slightly or significantly - and the home field plays a big role in that. In the year that Ohio State won the national title, they had to scratch and claw to a 7-6 win. Penn State was game and played the Bucs better than anyone else that year, but still came away the loser. Ohio State has lost huge games at Beaver Stadium, and finally Penn State won that big game in the Shoe that they so desperately needed to win.
This sounded like the kind of college football game in which you wanted both teams to win, or neither to lose. Regardless, I'm quite sure that despite the pain of losing, this was a game that Ohio State fans can tolerate losing. When you play an excellent game, obviously have a strong game plan, and basically play a slightly superior team to a draw, it's a good sign. Even better for Penn State, that winning against the best competition they've faced yet, and in a hostile environment, signals exactly how strong this team really is. Whether they play for a national title or not is not really up to them - either Texas or Alabama has to lose for that to happen - but it looks very good for Penn State to roll into a major BCS bowl sporting an undefeated record and the Big Ten title.
My only wish is that I could have watched the game. Maybe when my TV situation is resolved, I'll catch a reply somewhere...
1. Pittburgh's play calling was utterly atrocious. That was the worst game calling that I've seen in a long, long time, and if Cincinnati wasn't such a bad team it would have cost the Steelers dearly. Case in point. First and goal at the Cincy 3. 3 straight pass plays, 3 straight incompletions, and a FG
