Now that the less serious blogs about the big game are out of the way (link) and (link), it is time to assess the actual match-up on the field. Most non-OSU and Big Ten pundits out there in the CFB analytical world have it “no chance” for OSU. The ESPN Confidence Poll has it 78% for LSU. Perhaps a sample of the “confidence” would be prudent at this point:

“The BCS system isn't set up to give third chances, but the Tigers won't need another opportunity after they beat Ohio State in New Orleans.” – Chris Low, ESPN

“And when LSU beats Ohio State for the national championship, and that sense of finality sets in, you'll already be longing for the chaos of next season.” - Heather Dinich, ESPN

The OSU defense has been stellar this year. They are ranked number one in total and scoring defense. LSU is ranked #3 and #21 respectively in the same categories. From what I’ve seen this year in SEC match-ups, with the exception of LSU, Auburn, and Georgia, the SEC has not played much defense this year. The scores have been a little more WAC than SEC in my opinion. LSU was lights out defensively in the first five games of the year. I assume this is when everyone was healthy, but it was also versus less than impressive teams. Virginia Tech is the obvious exception and a case could be made for Mississippi State too since they ended up in a bowl game. Florida came into Baton Rouge and ran for 156 and Ole Miss (currently ranked #83 in team rushing) dropped 201 on the Tigers. Of course D-Mac and the Arkansas unit blew up the Tiger run D for 385, but it was D-Mac after all. The same D-Mac that went for 105 in the Mizzou loss. To their credit, the Tigers limited the rest of their 2007 opponents to moderate or very impressive run totals, and only D-Mac broke 100 individually on the LSU defense. Impressive to say the least. OSU was similar, in that four opponents cracked 100 on the Bucks, with their most noticeable melt down coming versus Illinois when they allowed 260 yards. Ironic that both teams lost games where their vaunted run defenses #### the pooch. OSU also held Akron to 20 yards, Purdue to 4, and Northwestern to zero in the rushing department. The most formidable rushing attacks that the Buckeyes faced this season would be Illinois (R.Mendenhall, D.Dufrene & Juice Williams) 260 yards, Michigan State (Javon Ringer and J.Caulcrick) 59 yards, Purdue (K.Sheets) 20 yards, and Michigan (Mike Hart) for 44 yards. It is notable that Mike Hart ran behind the same line last year against the Buckeyes for 150+ yards and three scores.

The bottom-line is that both defenses are top notch. The Tigers may have a little more depth in the secondary and their tackles are better, but OSU holds the edge in linebackers and defensive ends.

The obvious epicenter of the match-up is the trenches. Can the OSU line provide enough protection for Boeckman to look down his progressions? Most of Boeckman’s 12 interceptions this year were caused by the QB trying to force the ball into coverage, and not by pressure. The LSU line is not the speed unit that OSU faced last year, but Dorsey and Favorite power their way into the backfield on almost every play.

Flynn tends to make bad throws under pressure. He has become much better in terms of either running the ball if all his reads are covered or throwing the ball away. However, Mr. Gholston arrives in the backfield shortly after the snap on most downs, so I expect a few mistakes will be made. Much like it is pick your poison between Dorsey and Favorite, the same choice exists with Gholston and Little Ironhead Heyward.

Of course you can’t pass if you can’t run, so the defense that is most effective versus the run will give their team the advantage. Beanie is a load and he has six 100yard and two 200 yard games in the garage already this year. The only games he was truly contained were the Akron and Illinois games. Almost every back on the team got carries in the Akron game, so it is not a good barometer for evaluation purposes. Illinois is the only team to limit Beanie under 100 in a competitive contest, and OSU was behind and throwing a lot in that game. Against Wisconsin and Michigan, OSU rode him to victory on 169 and 3 TD’s and 222 two TD’s respectively. No team that he has run against this year has provided the same challenge as the LSU defense. It will be tough sledding, but the LSU D-line has not seen an O-line like this one yet either. Three senior fullbacks and two excellent blocking tight ends pick up opposing linebackers if Beanie gets through the line. I know the LSU pundits are saying that it is highly improbable that Beanie hits that second level of the defense…they better hope they’re right.

I have heard at least 1 million and one times that LSU is the more talent laden team. Perhaps that is true from top to bottom on the roster based upon recruit rankings and evaluation methods derived from such rankings by the “experts”. If you consider only the starters and/or the players that will be playing the majority of the snaps in this game, then OSU has the same if not superior talent at many positions. There are three top twelve picks starting on the OSU defense right now (Lauranitis, Gholston, and Jenkins). LSU has only Dorsey in the top 12. I think if you go position by position, it breaks down like this:

QB- Edge: LSU

RB- Edge: OSU

FB– Edge: OSU

WR-Edge: LSU

TE – Edge: OSU

OL- Edge: OSU

DE- Edge: OSU

DT- Edge: LSU

MLB- Edge: OSU

WSL- Edge: OSU

SSL- Edge: OSU

SS- Edge: LSU

FS- Edge: LSU (Except in the nickel when Jenkins slides to FS)

CB- Edge: OSU

K- Edge: OSU

P- Edge: OSU

PR & KR- Edge: LSU

I think the special teams play, not including Holiday as a returner, is fairly even. I doubt that OSU will kick to Holiday. I know I wouldn’t!

I have it advantage OSU 11 – 7 on the position breakdown. Now this doesn’t project how the units match-up versus each other, so this is how it would look.

OSU O-Line v. LSU D-Line – Edge: LSU

OSU RB v. LSU LB’s – Edge: OSU

OSU WR/TE v. LSU Secondary – Edge: LSU

LSU O-Line v. OSU D-Line – Edge: OSU

LSU RB v. OSU LB’s – Edge: Even

LSU WR v. OSU Secondary – Edge: LSU

Special Teams:

Return Game – Edge: LSU

Kicking – Edge: OSU

So LSU wins this breakdown 4-3, with one category listed as a push. Just one man’s opinion obviously, but I have seen every OSU game this season, and replays of the Illinois, Washington, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan games. Additionally, I have seen LSU play VT, Mississippi State, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, and Ole Miss. I have seen replays of the Florida and Auburn games. Oh yeah, and the Kentucky game. I have watched many other SEC games as well and I must admit that the brand of football is very exciting. The big difference for me, when contrasted with Big Ten play, is that the SEC plays a lot more man-to-man and therefore the big play is more frequent. The zone schemes of the Big Ten prevent the big play more often than not, and create the “three clouds…” stereotype. The speed theory is not correct. It is based upon one game and I think (it bears repeating) that Michigan dispelled that myth a few days ago. So, basically I am saying that when these teams lock up on Monday night, I think most people will be surprised by the outcome. I expect OSU to win the game (shocker!). If LSU completely stuffs the run and OSU turns the ball over more than once, then it will be hard to beat LSU. Playing from behind in front of a pro-LSU crowd is not where the Buckeyes want to be. If they can move the ball effectively in the ground and control the clock and the tempo of the game, then they have a legitimate shot at winning the title.

Good luck to both teams and I’ll see you in New Orleans!

Just a little fun “speed” comparison somebody sent me to finish this one off.

Go BUCKS!!!  BEAT LSU!!!

Oh, and maybe just one more:

Truth hurts sometimes.

I will be soaking it all in in The Easy for a few days, and will return to eat crow or serve it on Wednesday.

Buh-bye.