Now that the less serious blogs about the big game are out of the way (link) and (link), it is time to assess the actual match-up on the field. Most non-OSU and Big Ten pundits out there in the CFB analytical world have it “no chance” for OSU. The ESPN Confidence Poll has it 78% for LSU. Perhaps a sample of the “confidence” would be prudent at this point:
“The BCS system isn't set up to give third chances, but the Tigers won't need another opportunity after they beat Ohio State in New Orleans.” – Chris Low, ESPN
“And when LSU beats Ohio State for the national championship, and that sense of finality sets in, you'll already be longing for the chaos of next season.” - Heather Dinich, ESPN
Well, we already know that the folks at ESPN are the authorities on who is better than who when it comes to anything related to competitive sports, so I guess the Buckeyes are wasting good booster cheese vacationing in the Crescent City. I will take a stand here and beg to differ. I waited until the outcome of the Capital One Bowl and Outback Bowls were known, so all the “conference comparing addicts” out there would have something to chew on that was tangible: on field performance. Michigan obviously put the SEC “speed” advantage folklore to bed with their domination of Florida. The same Florida team that limited a healthy LSU offense to 147 passing yards. They did allow 247 rushing, but Michigan just put up 373 passing & 151 rushing (Total 524). Just in case you’re wondering, OSU held Michigan to 91 yards…..TOTAL….FOR THE GAME! Granted, it was a wet field and Henne was ####ed up, but Mallet is no slouch and Hart was 100% for that game. Oh and by the way, that game was AT the Big House with all 100,000 plus screaming when the Buckeyes had the ball. I guarantee that the Super Dome will not be any louder than the Big House, Happy Valley aka The Beav, or Autzen Stadium in Washington. I have been to Death Valley for a game or two and it definitely tops on the decibel meter, but the game isn’t in Death Valley Monday night. My guess is there are at least 30,000 Buckeyes sitting in the dome at kick off. Further more, I recall LSU having more than a little trouble with UT a few weeks back in the SEC title game. Everybody keeps talking about how Flynn didn’t start and Dorsey was ####ed up, well if Dorsey is the whole defense than it is game over already. Last time I checked Highsmith, Steltz and the rest of the Tiger’s defense may take exception to that perspective. In terms of Flynn, I think it is quite obvious that Perrilloux is the better QB anyway. He is the type of QB that OSU has had trouble with, and he is the QB I expect OSU will see more of on Monday night. Back to the point: UT needed all of their magical powers to beat a Wisconsin team that OSU dominated. Maybe it means nothing…maybe it means everything.
The OSU defense has been stellar this year. They are ranked number one in total and scoring defense. LSU is ranked #3 and #21 respectively in the same categories. From what I’ve seen this year in SEC match-ups, with the exception of LSU, Auburn, and Georgia, the SEC has not played much defense this year. The scores have been a little more WAC than SEC in my opinion. LSU was lights out defensively in the first five games of the year. I assume this is when everyone was healthy, but it was also versus less than impressive teams. Virginia Tech is the obvious exception and a case could be made for Mississippi State too since they ended up in a bowl game. Florida came into Baton Rouge and ran for 156 and Ole Miss (currently ranked #83 in team rushing) dropped 201 on the Tigers. Of course D-Mac and the Arkansas unit blew up the Tiger run D for 385, but it was D-Mac after all. The same D-Mac that went for 105 in the Mizzou loss. To their credit, the Tigers limited the rest of their 2007 opponents to moderate or very impressive run totals, and only D-Mac broke 100 individually on the LSU defense. Impressive to say the least. OSU was similar, in that four opponents cracked 100 on the Bucks, with their most noticeable melt down coming versus Illinois when they allowed 260 yards. Ironic that both teams lost games where their vaunted run defenses #### the pooch. OSU also held Akron to 20 yards, Purdue to 4, and Northwestern to zero in the rushing department. The most formidable rushing attacks that the Buckeyes faced this season would be Illinois (R.Mendenhall, D.Dufrene & Juice Williams) 260 yards, Michigan State (Javon Ringer and J.Caulcrick) 59 yards, Purdue (K.Sheets) 20 yards, and Michigan (Mike Hart) for 44 yards. It is notable that Mike Hart ran behind the same line last year against the Buckeyes for 150+ yards and three scores.
The bottom-line is that both defenses are top notch. The Tigers may have a little more depth in the secondary and their tackles are better, but OSU holds the edge in linebackers and defensive ends.
The obvious epicenter of the match-up is the trenches. Can the OSU line provide enough protection for Boeckman to look down his progressions? Most of Boeckman’s 12 interceptions this year were caused by the QB trying to force the ball into coverage, and not by pressure. The LSU line is not the speed unit that OSU faced last year, but Dorsey and Favorite power their way into the backfield on almost every play.
Flynn tends to make bad throws under pressure. He has become much better in terms of either running the ball if all his reads are covered or throwing the ball away. However, Mr. Gholston arrives in the backfield shortly after the snap on most downs, so I expect a few mistakes will be made. Much like it is pick your poison between Dorsey and Favorite, the same choice exists with Gholston and Little Ironhead Heyward.
Of course you can’t pass if you can’t run, so the defense that is most effective versus the run will give their team the advantage. Beanie is a load and he has six 100yard and two 200 yard games in the garage already this year. The only games he was truly contained were the Akron and Illinois games. Almost every back on the team got carries in the Akron game, so it is not a good barometer for evaluation purposes. Illinois is the only team to limit Beanie under 100 in a competitive contest, and OSU was behind and throwing a lot in that game. Against Wisconsin and Michigan, OSU rode him to victory on 169 and 3 TD’s and 222 two TD’s respectively. No team that he has run against this year has provided the same challenge as the LSU defense. It will be tough sledding, but the LSU D-line has not seen an O-line like this one yet either. Three senior fullbacks and two excellent blocking tight ends pick up opposing linebackers if Beanie gets through the line. I know the LSU pundits are saying that it is highly improbable that Beanie hits that second level of the defense…they better hope they’re right.
I have heard at least 1 million and one times that LSU is the more talent laden team. Perhaps that is true from top to bottom on the roster based upon recruit rankings and evaluation methods derived from such rankings by the “experts”. If you consider only the starters and/or the players that will be playing the majority of the snaps in this game, then OSU has the same if not superior talent at many positions. There are three top twelve picks starting on the OSU defense right now (Lauranitis, Gholston, and Jenkins). LSU has only Dorsey in the top 12. I think if you go position by position, it breaks down like this:
QB- Edge: LSU
RB- Edge: OSU
FB– Edge: OSU
WR-Edge: LSU
TE – Edge: OSU
OL- Edge: OSU
DE- Edge: OSU
DT- Edge: LSU
MLB- Edge: OSU
WSL- Edge: OSU
SSL- Edge: OSU
SS- Edge: LSU
FS- Edge: LSU (Except in the nickel when Jenkins slides to FS)
CB- Edge: OSU
K- Edge: OSU
P- Edge: OSU
PR & KR- Edge: LSU
I think the special teams play, not including Holiday as a returner, is fairly even. I doubt that OSU will kick to Holiday. I know I wouldn’t!
I have it advantage OSU 11 – 7 on the position breakdown. Now this doesn’t project how the units match-up versus each other, so this is how it would look.
OSU O-Line v. LSU D-Line – Edge: LSU
OSU RB v. LSU LB’s – Edge: OSU
OSU WR/TE v. LSU Secondary – Edge: LSU
LSU O-Line v. OSU D-Line – Edge: OSU
LSU RB v. OSU LB’s – Edge: Even
LSU WR v. OSU Secondary – Edge: LSU
Special Teams:
Return Game – Edge: LSU
Kicking – Edge: OSU
So LSU wins this breakdown 4-3, with one category listed as a push. Just one man’s opinion obviously, but I have seen every OSU game this season, and replays of the Illinois, Washington, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan games. Additionally, I have seen LSU play VT, Mississippi State, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, and Ole Miss. I have seen replays of the Florida and Auburn games. Oh yeah, and the Kentucky game. I have watched many other SEC games as well and I must admit that the brand of football is very exciting. The big difference for me, when contrasted with Big Ten play, is that the SEC plays a lot more man-to-man and therefore the big play is more frequent. The zone schemes of the Big Ten prevent the big play more often than not, and create the “three clouds…” stereotype. The speed theory is not correct. It is based upon one game and I think (it bears repeating) that Michigan dispelled that myth a few days ago. So, basically I am saying that when these teams lock up on Monday night, I think most people will be surprised by the outcome. I expect OSU to win the game (shocker!). If LSU completely stuffs the run and OSU turns the ball over more than once, then it will be hard to beat LSU. Playing from behind in front of a pro-LSU crowd is not where the Buckeyes want to be. If they can move the ball effectively in the ground and control the clock and the tempo of the game, then they have a legitimate shot at winning the title.
Good luck to both teams and I’ll see you in New Orleans!
Just a little fun “speed” comparison somebody sent me to finish this one off.
Go BUCKS!!! BEAT LSU!!!
Oh, and maybe just one more:
Truth hurts sometimes.
I will be soaking it all in in The Easy for a few days, and will return to eat crow or serve it on Wednesday.
The question has to be asked: Is this year’s Buckeye squad better than the one that went 12-1 last season?
If they reach the title game the answer had better be…GOD I HOPE SO!!!!!!!!!
In all seriousness though, I think it is.
Todd Boeckman is not Troy Smith. Is he a better QB and/or leader? Probably not at first glance, but in terms of what’s best for this current Buckeye team…he might be. Troy Smith was the unquestioned leader on last year’s team. He made the plays, got in the faces, and willed the team to victories. He did what great athletic leaders do… he found a way to win (with one notable exception of course). Troy Smith threw 30 touchdowns last year. Halfway through the 2007 season, Boeckman has 14. He has thrown as many interceptions (6) as Troy threw all of last season, but three of those were against Purdue double coverage and too far down the field to be of consequence versus the OSU defense. Boeckman is still learning, but he has an advantage over the Troy lead Buckeyes from last season: A light’s out defense.
The defense last year looked good on paper, and seemed to deliver on the field. Then the implosion, 80 points in two games and just under 1,000 yards of offense. When you look back at the defensive stats for last year’s defense, it becomes clear that while they held people out of the red-zone, they gave up monster yardage in between. Great, better than allowing scores, but when they played really good offensive Florida and UM teams….well we all know how the story ends. This year’s squad is not only holding people out of the red-zone, but nobody is moving the ball period! They have forced 42 three&outs in six games and 42 yards is the highest rushing total allowed. I don’t care who you are playing, that is great defense.
I will beat you to the punch nay-sayers: Who have they played and the Big Ten sucks again this year.
I say: Not so fast my friend.
Say what you want about the Big Ten, it is better than last year. The true barometer regarding the defensive fortitude of the 2007 Buckeye defense will be the last four games of the season. However, the coaches have created a defensive two-deep that is paying dividends. The schemes change week-to week and new people step up with great performances. It isn’t just the James Lauranitis show anymore. He had one solo tackle in the Purdue game. The defense is fast, relentless, and only getting better.
The coaching staff made some key personnel errors last year, during the season and in the championship game (a blog for another day perhaps). The secondary starters should not have included a 5th year, walk-on senior, and an underachieving SS. Specifically Antonio Smith and Jamario O"Neal. Both were burned repeatedly and everybody that is currently starting in the secondary was available last year. It would have meant starting true freshman over upper classmen and in Jamario’s case, an under-achieving star. Regardless, it is obvious that Kurt Coleman, Chimdi Chekwa, Donald Washington (last year’s nickel back), and Anderson Russell are far superior compliments to a lightning quick secondary, led by future first-rounder Malcolm Jenkins. This unit reminds me of the 1998 Winfield-Berry-Plummer-Moore unit. Most of the time Tressel & Co. do a good job getting the best players on the field, but last year they did not.
Back to Boeckman and the offense. This defense allows Boeckman and a young offense room for error. As I mentioned earlier, he threw three interceptions in the Purdue game,and Purdue didn’t even cross the OSU forty until late in the fourth quarter. A Purdue team that was averaging almost 500 yards of offense per game!! Granted, the Purdue sked is no murderer’s row, but 500 yards a game? That is a lot of offense.
The verdict is still out on the 2007 Buckeyes. There is much football left to be played and it is hard to tell just who is good anymore. Everybody seems to lose to teams they shouldn’t lose to. I can’t predict the future, but I can compare the past.
This year’s Buckeye squad wasn’t ranked number one from the gun and isn’t taking anything for granted. Too often I felt that last year’s team did. This year’s squad is flying around the field and takes it personally if an opponent lasts more than three downs in a possession. Last year’s defense gave up lots of first downs to everyone, including 15 to Northern Illinois, plus 343 yards of offense. This year they have something to prove on the heels of the "Debacle in the Desert". This year they look hungry.
Will it be enough? Maybe against the competition they will face in the Bug Ten for the remainder of the regular season, but probably not against the LSU’s and USC’s of the world. But there is still time to improve.
No one gave the Buckeyes a chance to beat the Hurricanes in 2002. The wins during the regular season were offensively unremarkable and some downright ugly, but defense ruled the day. Still the critics said it was against teams that paled next to the Hurricane offensive juggernaut. Well, we all know how that story ended too.
Defense wins championships and speed kills. Both, frequent cliches in the world of football. Both, very true.
The bottom-line is that I think this year’s defense makes this year’s team better than last year’s team. Both sides of the ball are loaded and deep. Deeper than last year. Sure the offense was awesome last year, but it couldn’t get it done against a great defense. They scored one offensive touchdown in the title game last year, and the defense could not hold the Gators. This defense would have made that game more competitive.
This defense might win the Buckeyes another title.
UPDATE:
As of yesterday afternoon, after LSU and Cal both lost on Saturday, the Buckeyes have taken over first place in both polls and in the initial BCS rankings. Hey, in the immortal words of William Munny..."deserved got nothing to to with it."
So, wether they played "anybody" or not, they have the inside track to the National Title game. Win out and go. Will it happen? Probably not, but the whining is priceless.
Good luck to the contenders, pretty much anybody ranked in the top ten at this point, and may the best teams play in January.
Allright, I can't take the "Who is the most deserved #2" team in the BCS anymore!! For the sake of entertaining speculation, and to provide everyone a break from a major dead horse, let's roll with what we do know about January 8th. Assuming that the opponent for the Buckeyes will be either, Michigan, USC, or Florida, who would provide the best challenge/match-up? Examples for this exercise should NOT include:
A.) Strength of schedule
B.) Who beat/did not beat who this season already
C.) Who won their conference (or speculation about who might win their conference).
D.) How many national championships the school has won since Lincoln was in office.
E.) How many women/people Wilt Chamberlain actually slept with in his life-time.
The only relavent information needed for this conversation is team v. team comparisons from a playing field perspective. We will however assume that the field is in good condition and not a cloud in the sky.
Come on, you can do it!!
New rule:
No debates about who is more deserving of championship birth, Florida or Michigan. Just talk match-ups: BCS Title Game-Rose Bowl-Sugar (Beatdown) Bowl....you get the picture??? No amount of ####ing in the world is going to change the bowl line-up, so why bother?
I was born and raised in Columbus, Ohio, and I still reside there today. I work for, root for, and defend the Scarlet and Gray. I love all things Buckeye and most things Big Ten. However, I am not above rationality when it comes to sports and would never be a complete "homer" who has no disregard for other opinions and/or viewpoints regardless of the topic....oh who am I kidding, unless you love the Buckeyes you don't count!!!
Go Bucks!!!!!!!! !!
