Now that the less serious blogs about the big game are out of the way (link) and (link), it is time to assess the actual match-up on the field. Most non-OSU and Big Ten pundits out there in the CFB analytical world have it “no chance” for OSU. The ESPN Confidence Poll has it 78% for LSU. Perhaps a sample of the “confidence” would be prudent at this point:
“The BCS system isn't set up to give third chances, but the Tigers won't need another opportunity after they beat Ohio State in New Orleans.” – Chris Low, ESPN
“And when LSU beats Ohio State for the national championship, and that sense of finality sets in, you'll already be longing for the chaos of next season.” - Heather Dinich, ESPN
Well, we already know that the folks at ESPN are the authorities on who is better than who when it comes to anything related to competitive sports, so I guess the Buckeyes are wasting good booster cheese vacationing in the Crescent City. I will take a stand here and beg to differ. I waited until the outcome of the Capital One Bowl and Outback Bowls were known, so all the “conference comparing addicts” out there would have something to chew on that was tangible: on field performance. Michigan obviously put the SEC “speed” advantage folklore to bed with their domination of Florida. The same Florida team that limited a healthy LSU offense to 147 passing yards. They did allow 247 rushing, but Michigan just put up 373 passing & 151 rushing (Total 524). Just in case you’re wondering, OSU held Michigan to 91 yards…..TOTAL….FOR THE GAME! Granted, it was a wet field and Henne was ####ed up, but Mallet is no slouch and Hart was 100% for that game. Oh and by the way, that game was AT the Big House with all 100,000 plus screaming when the Buckeyes had the ball. I guarantee that the Super Dome will not be any louder than the Big House, Happy Valley aka The Beav, or Autzen Stadium in Washington. I have been to Death Valley for a game or two and it definitely tops on the decibel meter, but the game isn’t in Death Valley Monday night. My guess is there are at least 30,000 Buckeyes sitting in the dome at kick off. Further more, I recall LSU having more than a little trouble with UT a few weeks back in the SEC title game. Everybody keeps talking about how Flynn didn’t start and Dorsey was ####ed up, well if Dorsey is the whole defense than it is game over already. Last time I checked Highsmith, Steltz and the rest of the Tiger’s defense may take exception to that perspective. In terms of Flynn, I think it is quite obvious that Perrilloux is the better QB anyway. He is the type of QB that OSU has had trouble with, and he is the QB I expect OSU will see more of on Monday night. Back to the point: UT needed all of their magical powers to beat a Wisconsin team that OSU dominated. Maybe it means nothing…maybe it means everything.
The OSU defense has been stellar this year. They are ranked number one in total and scoring defense. LSU is ranked #3 and #21 respectively in the same categories. From what I’ve seen this year in SEC match-ups, with the exception of LSU, Auburn, and Georgia, the SEC has not played much defense this year. The scores have been a little more WAC than SEC in my opinion. LSU was lights out defensively in the first five games of the year. I assume this is when everyone was healthy, but it was also versus less than impressive teams. Virginia Tech is the obvious exception and a case could be made for Mississippi State too since they ended up in a bowl game. Florida came into Baton Rouge and ran for 156 and Ole Miss (currently ranked #83 in team rushing) dropped 201 on the Tigers. Of course D-Mac and the Arkansas unit blew up the Tiger run D for 385, but it was D-Mac after all. The same D-Mac that went for 105 in the Mizzou loss. To their credit, the Tigers limited the rest of their 2007 opponents to moderate or very impressive run totals, and only D-Mac broke 100 individually on the LSU defense. Impressive to say the least. OSU was similar, in that four opponents cracked 100 on the Bucks, with their most noticeable melt down coming versus Illinois when they allowed 260 yards. Ironic that both teams lost games where their vaunted run defenses #### the pooch. OSU also held Akron to 20 yards, Purdue to 4, and Northwestern to zero in the rushing department. The most formidable rushing attacks that the Buckeyes faced this season would be Illinois (R.Mendenhall, D.Dufrene & Juice Williams) 260 yards, Michigan State (Javon Ringer and J.Caulcrick) 59 yards, Purdue (K.Sheets) 20 yards, and Michigan (Mike Hart) for 44 yards. It is notable that Mike Hart ran behind the same line last year against the Buckeyes for 150+ yards and three scores.
The bottom-line is that both defenses are top notch. The Tigers may have a little more depth in the secondary and their tackles are better, but OSU holds the edge in linebackers and defensive ends.
The obvious epicenter of the match-up is the trenches. Can the OSU line provide enough protection for Boeckman to look down his progressions? Most of Boeckman’s 12 interceptions this year were caused by the QB trying to force the ball into coverage, and not by pressure. The LSU line is not the speed unit that OSU faced last year, but Dorsey and Favorite power their way into the backfield on almost every play.
Flynn tends to make bad throws under pressure. He has become much better in terms of either running the ball if all his reads are covered or throwing the ball away. However, Mr. Gholston arrives in the backfield shortly after the snap on most downs, so I expect a few mistakes will be made. Much like it is pick your poison between Dorsey and Favorite, the same choice exists with Gholston and Little Ironhead Heyward.
Of course you can’t pass if you can’t run, so the defense that is most effective versus the run will give their team the advantage. Beanie is a load and he has six 100yard and two 200 yard games in the garage already this year. The only games he was truly contained were the Akron and Illinois games. Almost every back on the team got carries in the Akron game, so it is not a good barometer for evaluation purposes. Illinois is the only team to limit Beanie under 100 in a competitive contest, and OSU was behind and throwing a lot in that game. Against Wisconsin and Michigan, OSU rode him to victory on 169 and 3 TD’s and 222 two TD’s respectively. No team that he has run against this year has provided the same challenge as the LSU defense. It will be tough sledding, but the LSU D-line has not seen an O-line like this one yet either. Three senior fullbacks and two excellent blocking tight ends pick up opposing linebackers if Beanie gets through the line. I know the LSU pundits are saying that it is highly improbable that Beanie hits that second level of the defense…they better hope they’re right.
I have heard at least 1 million and one times that LSU is the more talent laden team. Perhaps that is true from top to bottom on the roster based upon recruit rankings and evaluation methods derived from such rankings by the “experts”. If you consider only the starters and/or the players that will be playing the majority of the snaps in this game, then OSU has the same if not superior talent at many positions. There are three top twelve picks starting on the OSU defense right now (Lauranitis, Gholston, and Jenkins). LSU has only Dorsey in the top 12. I think if you go position by position, it breaks down like this:
QB- Edge: LSU
RB- Edge: OSU
FB– Edge: OSU
WR-Edge: LSU
TE – Edge: OSU
OL- Edge: OSU
DE- Edge: OSU
DT- Edge: LSU
MLB- Edge: OSU
WSL- Edge: OSU
SSL- Edge: OSU
SS- Edge: LSU
FS- Edge: LSU (Except in the nickel when Jenkins slides to FS)
CB- Edge: OSU
K- Edge: OSU
P- Edge: OSU
PR & KR- Edge: LSU
I think the special teams play, not including Holiday as a returner, is fairly even. I doubt that OSU will kick to Holiday. I know I wouldn’t!
I have it advantage OSU 11 – 7 on the position breakdown. Now this doesn’t project how the units match-up versus each other, so this is how it would look.
OSU O-Line v. LSU D-Line – Edge: LSU
OSU RB v. LSU LB’s – Edge: OSU
OSU WR/TE v. LSU Secondary – Edge: LSU
LSU O-Line v. OSU D-Line – Edge: OSU
LSU RB v. OSU LB’s – Edge: Even
LSU WR v. OSU Secondary – Edge: LSU
Special Teams:
Return Game – Edge: LSU
Kicking – Edge: OSU
So LSU wins this breakdown 4-3, with one category listed as a push. Just one man’s opinion obviously, but I have seen every OSU game this season, and replays of the Illinois, Washington, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan games. Additionally, I have seen LSU play VT, Mississippi State, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, and Ole Miss. I have seen replays of the Florida and Auburn games. Oh yeah, and the Kentucky game. I have watched many other SEC games as well and I must admit that the brand of football is very exciting. The big difference for me, when contrasted with Big Ten play, is that the SEC plays a lot more man-to-man and therefore the big play is more frequent. The zone schemes of the Big Ten prevent the big play more often than not, and create the “three clouds…” stereotype. The speed theory is not correct. It is based upon one game and I think (it bears repeating) that Michigan dispelled that myth a few days ago. So, basically I am saying that when these teams lock up on Monday night, I think most people will be surprised by the outcome. I expect OSU to win the game (shocker!). If LSU completely stuffs the run and OSU turns the ball over more than once, then it will be hard to beat LSU. Playing from behind in front of a pro-LSU crowd is not where the Buckeyes want to be. If they can move the ball effectively in the ground and control the clock and the tempo of the game, then they have a legitimate shot at winning the title.
Good luck to both teams and I’ll see you in New Orleans!
Just a little fun “speed” comparison somebody sent me to finish this one off.
Go BUCKS!!! BEAT LSU!!!
Oh, and maybe just one more:
Truth hurts sometimes.
I will be soaking it all in in The Easy for a few days, and will return to eat crow or serve it on Wednesday.
Hey Pete. I still till this day cant quite figure out where the whole "speed & SEC" thing came into being. I dont know any D-1 college that is looking for guys running 6 flat in a 40 do you?...lol.
I honestly dont know what to think about this game. I know what EPSN says, but for crying outloud they have "The Camel" in Lou Holtz making predictions, what more is there to say?
As a break down at RB, I would have to give LSU the edge simply b/c of the # of RBs they can throw at a defense. I dont know enough about the OSU WRs to make a decision there. QB wise I am breaking even on. It depends on if Flynn plays or not. Defensive wise, both are loaded. Pelini ever since the Florida game has stopped doing his blitz packages. I dont know why, but it has cost LSU dearly. If he stays that course and sits back, it may very well be the deciding factor in the game. I am hoping Pelini just says "go after them" and never lets up. When LSU did that, they dominated. I think that part of the game alone, will decide the outcome.
I am going to take this route: If LSU sits back on defense like they have been doing, they lose hands down. Yeah we can say injuries have caused the reversal, but if that is the case, then why play injuried people? LSU on defense will finally be 100% healthy again. I just hope Pelini lets them go.
It is gonna be a great game I think. Hopefully a low scoring nail-biter that I wont be able to watch!
Whats up FAN?!-
Good points bro. The whole speed thing is predicated upon the title game last year. The real mis-matches were not caused by speed in that game, rather the OSU defensive scheme (long zone) which allowed Florida to dink and dunk down the feild all night long. Everybody forgets that the Gators had zero plays over 20 yards in that entire game. Now the speed rushing ends were too fast for the OSU tackles, but that is pretty common throughout CFB. If you have a dominant end(s), then you will get to the QB. Anyway, overall the SEC abd Big Ten beat each other about 50/50. OSU does have a stinkpot of a record in bowl games and 5 of the 8 losses came under Cooper who couldn't beat Michigan or win a bowl game to save his life. The point is that LSU, USC, TEXAS, OU, Florida, Miamai, OSU, Michigan etc etc all recruit the same players and most have little if any speed advantages every year. Some years are better and some years are worse depending on returning stsrters, coaches, etc.
I still think OSU has the RB edge (barely). The trio of backs LSU uses has seen more reps this year, than the top OSU 3, but that is because Wells has been so dominant. The other two backs are speed speed speed. My guess is LSU fans will know the name Brandon Saine before the end of the night Monday.
Your defensive breakdown seems sound. I would agree that Pelini pulled back on the leash the latter 1/2 of the season. My guess is if they jailbreak on OSU all the time the OSU adj. will be screen passes to Saine, Hartline, and Ray Small. I would go back to the blitz initially too if I was
I would be lying If I said this is a sure fire V for the Bucks, The intangibles (pro-LSU crowd, etc.)are certainly going to be factors, so OSU will need to keep pace if they want to have a shot at this thing. I know they will be better prepared than last year, so the question is will it be enough?
Who wants it more baby, that is the ultimate bottom-line. See you there!
Pete, Nice breakdown and I agree the speed thing is a myth to many SEC fans have bought into without actually looking at the facts. One thing is though you say that you doubt the Superdome will be louder than say the Big house in Mich. you'll be surprised my friend just how loud it is their. Being a loyal Saints fan (although most of my life I wonder why) I know how loud it get's in their. The acoustics of the building are unreal and cause a certain disadvantage to visiting teams. During Pro games I would say only Seattle and maybe K.C. has a louder stadium. We shall see how it affects OSU though. Will be a nail-bitter till the end is my opinion. whichever team makes the least mistakes wins. Goodluck and see you down South.
Pete, sometimes these talking heads just like to hear themselves or see thier collective words in print to create some kind of banter. Some actually believe it helps spark debate that can be used later on "if" what they conjure up happens.
The reality here is I am also tired of the "speed" #### and strenght of schedule garbage. You have two teams that are going to face off that in my opinion are evenly matched on all sides. I will OSU the advantage in coahcing and special teams. Otherwise you have to very balanced teams that both want to win. Hopefuly LSU does not buy into the "they are so much better ####."
The big advantage I see is the game being played in New Orleans. Hostile territory to say the least.
Have a fantastic time at the game email me at bayoudogs2003@yahoo and I will give you my cell incase you need a get out of jail free card.
Gambitt-
I belive you did offer the chance to exchange a few rounds while I am in town, so if you want to try and do that send me an e-mail @ bgoose9@yahoo.com.
Now that you mention it, I have been to a few Saints games and to Death Valley, so you put those two together and you get LOUDER THAN HELL!! Penn State is the loudest place the OSU guys say they have ever played, and they have a pretty good system for signalling plays, but I'm sure it will be a factor to some degree. My only hope is that Buckeye fans can find about 25,000 - 30,000 seats to help off-set the noise a little. Good luck , right?
Pete,
What has me cringing is LSU's punt formation. I keep waiting for LSU's punter to kick da ball up da rear of one of the 3 blockers that are in the backfield! I keep waiting for a rusher to push one of the backfield blockers into the path of one of the punts. Why LSU uses such a strange formation is beyond me?
As for giving LSU the advatnage in QB, am not so sure. Flynn has a tendency to telegraph his throws, and Ryan is limited on his grasp of the whole offense!
GREAT POST PETE I read the whole thing ! hope you have fun in the big easy and be carefull Im glad the speed thing is addressed nothing like some idiots that think the Buckeyes use a sundile to time there 40s drink one for me there
As a Temple Owls diehard fan I will never have a horse in the BCS race but I have to say this was some great scribble even if you are a wee bit biased. If Temple were even close to a bowl game I would make this look positively neutral. Well done.
I would like to point out the mighty Temple Owls finished with one more victory than Notre Dame this year so in Philly we're already celebrating "...that magical season!"
Are you trying to best the ReverendRhythm? I know the ReverendRhythm. The ReverendRhythm is a friend of mine. You're no ReverendRhythm.
But, I could have summed it up in one sentence for ya: THE Runner-Up Univeristy and the Big Televen are still overrated. (Oh, wait, Georgia finished second in the polls. Isn't that a 'slow' SEC team as well?)
So, enjoy the crow and the Zima, my friend.
Have a safe, long, boring and dreary trip back to Ohio.
Last edited by HarryBalzac on January 8th at 2:25 AM.
Jim Tressel has an excellent record at OSU, and some impressive stats. However, one thing that needs to change for OSU to be able to compete against the best conference in CFB at the present (SEC)...he needs to hand over the play calling to someone else. ASAP. I wont go into what i believe were tremendous mistakes on the play calling, but a two that are stuck in my mind...why bother trying to block a kick from that field position at that stage of the game. not worth the risk of the Personal Foul. you are getting the ball with most of the 2nd half to play. Be content. 2nd thing...on 3rd and 4, in 4 down territory, go with your strength...the running game. avoid the chance of a sack for a loss (which is exactly what happened). running the ball is almost a certainty of a yard or 2, making your options on 4th down much greater. even a no gainer is better than 4th and 7. To me its a no brainer why Les Miles didnt want to be in the Big 10. Why leave the best conference in football for that?
I was wondering where you were after the big game last night. I remember reading your posts to my blog. Care to comment on how overated Ohio State is?
Let me just lay it out for you. The problem with the "Big Two" is that they won't add two extra teams because they know they can backdoor into the BCS title game. But, as you can see, it's backfired on them two years in a row. OVERATED !!
Literally. I'm frankly depressed, didn't sleep well, have no appetite.
Still, I think there's hope for the future. People laughed at me when I predicted an LSU vs Ohio State BCS game, yet it came to pass.
Now, I'm going out on a limb and predicting a third straight BCS championship game appearance for the Buckeyes. I can hear the collective groans across the country right now.
But Pete, this time, I predict the Buckeyes will finally get it done, and win the whole thing.
Who will their opponent be in next year's title game? My gut says it won't be USC. I don't think it will be an SEC team either.
I'm leaning towards either Oklahoma or Missouri. And I think Ohio State will win in a close, hard-fought game.
Why am I going out on a limb like this? Because that's what Buckeye fans have to do.
Look to the future. And not dwell on the past.
Go Bucks! Ohio State in 2008!
Edit: Oh and Pete, I exchanged the office pool ticket I pulled that had LSU as BCS champ for a stay at a time share. Lost 700 dollars but was able to root for my home team with reservations.
Priceless!
Last edited by therealbigten on January 9th at 5:34 AM.
Just posted a blog regarding my trip (1st one) but I need to address a couple of these comments.
Balzac-
Can't say much, again, but at least OSU showed up this year. Turnovers and penalties at crucial times help make this one easy for LSU. OSU and the Big Ten have some work to do, no argument here, but OSU is a perrenial top ten team. They just need to figure out how to be a perrenial number one at the end of the season. Your boys still got smoked too, so make sure you make your zima a double. I don't know WTF you're talking about w/ the Rev ####, but I do know that you and Rev are two of a very small, select group of SEC fans that don't make we want to hurl.
RBG-
It was a heartbreaking loss, especially after the start we had, but LSU played better throughout and won the prize. The trip was awesome regardless. Hard to have a bad time in New Orleans.
Atticus-
Nice to see you bravely appear after the outcome has been decided. And you and every other SEC nutjob who thinks that LSU dominated OSU are obviously wearing your thick SEC pop-bottle lenses. OSU was smoking LSU until they dicided to become the penalty express. After the mistakes were made it was easy for a talented LSU team to pin their ears back and cement the win. OSU would have beaten every team in the SEC this year dave LSU and maybe Georgia. There is obvously no spped advantage, as Beanie Wells and the OSU receivers were running all over LSU before they fell behind. And Michigan torched the Gators. OSU did not play well enough to win that game, but they are definitely not overrated. I
. I suggest you start following a sport that is a little easier for you to analyize. OSU needs to become less conservative and more physical in big games. Tressel is afraid to lose and it shows. As for where I was, I was still partying with some of the classiest fans on the planet-Tigers and Buckeyes. Hope you enjoyed watching it on your black & white TV in your trailer.
dfan- I agree with your points completely. Tressel and his staff need to evaluate how they use their personnel and need to know thatit is allright to take some chances.
OSU made the game a laugher on their own accord. LSU played well and disrupted the OSU game plan, but it wasn't hard to do with OSU shooting themselves in the foot with penalties, turn overs, and bad play calling.
The Buckeyes have the talent to win games v. teams like LSU, but Tressel needs to go for the jugular more often. It is getting old watching the talent OSU has year after year being under used or used ineffectively.
I was born and raised in Columbus, Ohio, and I still reside there today. I work for, root for, and defend the Scarlet and Gray. I love all things Buckeye and most things Big Ten. However, I am not above rationality when it comes to sports and would never be a complete "homer" who has no disregard for other opinions and/or viewpoints regardless of the topic....oh who am I kidding, unless you love the Buckeyes you don't count!!!
Go Bucks!!!!!!!! !!
