Why the Celtics will win…

• Their front court is far more physical than the Lakers’. Kendrick Perkins is a freak who is starting to really see his potential. He really was the unsung star in the two games against the Lakers this year as he ####ed guys around in the paint and gobbled up rebounds. And that was before the Lakers got a little softer by losing Bynum and getting Gasol. Odom and Garnett are about equally prone to #### down low. But Pierce can eat up Radmonovic on the block and on the glass. Posey is a hard-nosed guy, as is PJ Brown. Save for Ronny Turiaf, the Lakers primarily bring skill guys off the bench.
• They have home court advantage in a 2-3-2 setup. I can’t emphasize the last part of that enough. I really feel the 2-3-2 setup is stupid (why change it for the last round?) and that it gives a clear advantage to the favorite. As the underdog, it’s tough enough to split the first two games, but even if you do, winning the middle three straight is nearly impossible. Don’t get me wrong, it can be done. The Pistons, notably, did it against the Lakers in 2004, winning game 1 in LA and coming home to finish them off in 5. But in the 2-2-1-1-1 format, the underdog can take game 6 at home. Here, if the Lakers split in Boston and lose one of the 3 games at home, they need to win either the game 6 or the game 7 in Boston, and that seems like a tall order.

   

• Paul Pierce loves to play the Lakers. For some reason, Paul Pierce relishes playing his hometown Lakers. It’s not just his scoring that sees a bump, but his defense is noticeably more focused and he makes a concerted effort to make aggressive moves to the basket. He and Kobe have essentially cancelled each other out in most games head to head. Not too many guys can say that.

   

• Kobe Bryant plays terribly (for his standards) against the Celtics. Sure, Kobe’s put up big numbers against them, but look at his shooting percentages. One game in particular sticks out to me. Kobe set his personal record for FGA in a game with 47 (!) against the Celtics in 2002, but only scored 40 points on those 47 shot attempts. In two games this year, Kobe again shot terribly and seemed to be forcing shots. Kobe’s personal feuds with PP and Ray Allen seem to get him to lock in on shooting and forgetting what has made the Lakers successful this season and that’s him spreading the wealth. And in all the games I’ve ever watched Kobe play, he only seems to have problems guarding and being guarded by 2 players: one is LeBron James, the other is Paul Pierce.

   

• Fisher has problems with quick point guards, and Rondo is about as quick as they come. I will admit Fisher did a pretty good job on Iverson and on Tony Parker, two pretty quick guys. But I was truly confounded that Iverson and Parker settled for as many jumpers as they did when Fisher notoriously has problems staying in front of quick guards all the way to the hoop. Rondo, because he simply can’t shoot, is unlikely to make the same mistake.

   

• The Lakers’ sole backup at the 4 and 5 spot is Ronny Turiaf. Ouch. Not to say Ronny isn’t useful; he is very useful and is a huge burst of energy off the bench. But against a team with a physical rebounding frontcourt like the Celtics, this may be an issue if Pau and WHEN Lamar gets into foul trouble. I guarantee at least 2 games where Lamar has to sit early in the 2nd after picking up an early 3rd foul.

   

• The Celtics slow it down and play terrific help defense. Saying “Defense wins championships” is so cliché that it’s cliché to SAY that it’s cliché. But dig deeper and it’s not just defense wins championships but slower paced defensive teams win championships. Fast break, high scoring offenses don’t often succeed this deep in the playoffs. Ask the Suns and the Warriors. Granted, the Lakers play better defense than these two clubs and run a pretty efficient half-court offense, but they love to get out in the break and run it. The Celtics, I have a feeling, won’t let them run very much. This is a defensive minded team with defensive genius Tom Thibideau as a key assistant coach. They were the top defensive team in the league this season, and the Lakers will have to grind it out much like they did against the Spurs.

   

• The Boston Three Party are looking for their first ‘chip. These guys will be going at it hard as they are hungry and can smell it now. All three are at the apex or just past the apex of their careers and this might be their best shot to win it all.

   

• Ray Allen woke up at the right time. Just as people were starting to write him off, he comes through with a huge game 5 in Boston to make people remember that he’s still got something left in the tank.

   

• Boston has settled down as the competition has gotten stiffer. After flailing through two 7 game series against two huge underdogs, they finally tuned things up against the Pistons, by far their best opponent to that point. That’s good news for the Green Machine as they head to the NBA Finals against a Lakers team that is better yet.

   

• The Lakers have to start off on the road. How will the young group respond to a challenge they have not yet seen?

   

Why the Lakers will win…

• Phil Jackson can coach. In case you haven’t noticed, this man can run a basketball squad. He brings the most out of every member of his team and his confidence carries over into his players. He gets them mentally and physically ready, and he can do the X’s and O’s with the best of them. He’s won 9 rings and lost once in the Finals. Only Gregg Popovich is on Phil’s level in all facets of coaching.

   

• Doc Rivers is a questionable coach. Whereas Phil Jackson is likely to put shiny new objects on his fingers at the end of seasons, Doc seems like the kind of guy who would get distracted by shiny objects. The biggest mistake Doc has made this season has come here in the playoffs, as he’s totally #### around with his rotation. Guys don’t know if they’re playing or not or what kind of minutes they will or will not see. Poor Leon Powe is looking over his shoulder constantly for fear of being yanked for a tiny mistake, despite the fact that he is probably the Celtics most effective bench player except maybe James Posey. Doc has put too much faith in the old guys (Cassell, Brown) and not enough in the young ones (Powe, Glen Davis, Eddie House) and has said some questionable things in the media about his team and his players.

   

• The Lakers are young but have grown together and have leaders who have been here. This Lakers squad, save for Pau Gasol and Derek Fisher, has been through 3 tough years together, growing closer as a unit and growing as individuals and as a team. Fisher and Kobe have been to the promised land along with Phil and his staff, and Luke Walton has played in the Finals as a rookie. These guys know their roles, they feel comfortable doing what they’re asked to do and they know how to eek out tough games. Plus, these guys really like each other. As in, they’re actually good friends. The chemistry of this team might be unparalleled in the league.

   

• The Lakers have proven they can win against all manners of opponents. Along the way, they’ve defeated the run-’n-gun Denver Nuggets, the physical and precise Utah Jazz, and the slow, grind-it-out, defensive-minded, former NBA Champion Spurs. They just figure out ways to win. Credit the coaching staff for this one.

   

• Kevin Garnett might just pass out in the 4th quarter of a close game. I love KG. Love him. But he’s wound so tightly and is so intense throughout the season, he can’t turn it up to another level if he’s always at max intensity. Unlike Spinal Tap’s amp, he can’t go to 11. I can’t shake the feeling that he’s going to blow it big time at the end of one game during the Finals.

   

• The Lakers now have Pau Gasol. And Lakers fans are quick to remind Celtic fans of this point. Pau may not be the most rugged guy in the league but he brings so much to the table. Everyone knows what he brings to the offensive end: terrific court vision, passing, a solid post game and an excellent face-up game from 15 feet in. His defense on Tim Duncan went mostly unnoticed because he’s quickly dismissed as a poor defender, but he did quite a job against the Big Fundamental. It’s easy to see Timmy’s series averages of 22, 17 and 5 and think that Pau got destroyed, but Pau made him work for those points and Gasol’s length bothered TD into shooting a very un-Duncan like 42.6% for the series. In fact, Duncan never shot above 50% in any of the 5 games. That’s borderline miraculous. This isn’t to say Pau is better than Tim, or KG for that matter, but he’s certainly a LOT closer to their level than Kwame. Pau will make KG work for his.

   

• The Celtics have struggled against all 3 playoff opponents. Yes, they performed better against the Pistons. But the hobbled Pistons have been in need of an infusion of life and youth for a while and just looked tired and old against the Celtics. Struggling against those Pistons and against LeBron and the Pips is bad enough, but struggling against the sub-.500 Hawks is just inexcusable. The Celtics have looked dominant at times and like a bunch of scared rookies at others. At this point, it’s tough to call which team comes out to play in the Finals.

   

• 20 and 15. That’s the number of playoff games the Celtics and Lakers have played respectively this postseason. The Lakers are younger to begin with, and should be plenty fresh. Because of 3 quick series, having that extra rest during a long, arduous season could be just the boost they need and just the boost the Celtics might be wishing they could have had.

   

• Benches. The Celtics bench isn’t shabby – Posey, Powe, Davis, House, Brown and Cassell form a pretty good second unit. But the Lakers is better and more in tune with each other. Farmar, Vujacic, Walton, and Turiaf. At this point, it’s not the depth of the bench, it’s the quality of it. All teams go to 8, maybe 9 man rotations in the playoffs, and the Lakers 6-9 guys are better than that of the Celtics. And as I mentioned before, Phil Jackson actually knows how to use his bench.

   

• Tony Allen is not 100%. I know people don’t think this matters, but it does. He was key in slowing down Bryant earlier this year and would have been a big lift for them should Ray or Paul struggle to contain Kobe.

My prediction: Celtics in a nail-biting 7th game. The glaring lack of bodies down low for the Lakers will kill them on the backboards and for the first time in months, they’ll really miss Andrew Bynum. Paul Pierce will be the MVP of the series, averaging 27, 7, and 4 and knocking down a killer three in one of the Celtic wins. Phil Jackson will make adjustments and Kobe will win a game for them but it’s not going to quite be enough as Pierce simply cannot be stopped. I also predict James Posey will have a huge series.

This is my gut feeling. If I’m right, I’m right. But I’d love to be wrong! Go Lakers! Make us proud!