So, the Miami Dolphins are no longer winless. Last Sunday the Dolphins beat the Baltimore Ravens 22-16 in overtime to avoid going 0 for 2007. How did they do it? With a combination of grit and determination, solid football, some friendly breaks from the schedule makers, and good old-fashioned luck.
Every year we hear stories of how the 1972 Dolphins team stands by every week deep into the season to toast the event of the last undefeated team’s first loss. So far this season, thanks to the New England Patriots, they have yet to mark that event, but they must have been cheering on this year’s edition of the Dolphins, who rallied from a ten-point deficit in the third quarter to lead Baltimore 16-13 in the fourth. A determined effort by the Dolphins, who have lost several games this season by three points or less. Some might say this proves they were not quite as bad as their winless record (prior to Sunday) would indicate.
Every football team worth its game ticket price (an arguable point right there, but a topic for another post) spends countless hours preparing for their next game. It should be noted that I did not see the Miami-Baltimore game, but on at least one play, the Dolphins offensive scheme worked to perfection. Of course, I mean the game winning pass play from Cleo Lemon to Greg Camarillo. Camarillo took the Lemon short pass on a slant route and split two Baltimore defenders on a 64-yard sprint to the end zone. Camarillo’s first ever career touchdown came as he did his best impression of a mechanical rabbit to the Baltimore defense’s greyhounds. Therefore, on that one play, if not the rest of the game, solid game preparation paid off for Miami.
The schedule makers were actually kind to Miami last Sunday. Well, it would at least seem that way, as the Dolphins opponent had a less than respectable 3-10 record before Sunday’s game. The Ravens have not enjoyed success recently, having lost eight games in a row, including Sunday’s futile effort against Miami. The Ravens also lost linebacker Ray Lewis to a dislocated finger and quarterback Kyle Boller (the AFC’s version of Rex Grossman) to a mild concussion. Of course, when the schedule was released last April, no one knew how the season would play out, and each week brings a new and different set of game scenarios, but at least last week, the schedule makers were on Miami’s side.
A famous football coach (Vince Lombardi I believe) once said, “Footballs are shaped weird and they bounce funny”. Miami benefited from at least two lucky bounces and one lucky (for the Dolphins) coaching decision by Baltimore. Matt Stover, the Ravens’ place kicker, missed a 44-yard field goal attempt on Baltimore’s first possession in overtime, and he had a 50-yard attempt blocked by Dolphin defensive end Jason Taylor on the final play of the first half. Miami dodged a bullet when Ravens Coach Brian Billick chose to have Stover kick a field goal rather than try for a touchdown on a fourth and goal play from the Miami one-half yard line. With the Dolphins up 16-13, the field goal tied the game and forced overtime rather than give the Ravens the victory in regulation. Billick’s decision gave the Dolphins a reprieve and another chance to win, which they did.
So Miami is no longer winless thanks to Baltimore’s poor decision, their own offensive supremacy, albeit on one play, and some lucky breaks. Who would have thought this is how they would accomplish their first win after 14 games? Oh well, even a blind squirrel can find one acorn.
Here we are at week 15 of the NFL season, and five of the league’s eight division champions have clinched their titles. Of those that have yet to be decided, the most competitive, arguably, is the AFC North. This division, for all intents and purposes, is a two horse race, with the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers as the thoroughbreds and the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens, respectively, as the also ran nags.
The winner of this division may not be decided until after the last weekend of the regular season is over. In fact with Pittsburgh at a 9-4 record and Cleveland at 8-5, only one game separates the two division leaders, and with no common opponents scheduled in the last three weeks of the season, they could end up with identical records, in which case Pittsburgh would be champion, as they hold the tiebreaker, having won both games against the Browns this year.
Cleveland’s remaining schedule includes Buffalo, the Bengals, and San Francisco, with a collective won-loss record of 15-24 (.384). Pittsburgh’s schedule has the Jacksonville Jaguars, St. Louis Rams, and the Ravens, whose won-loss record is only one game better at 16-23 (.410). So with one game difference in the won loss records of both the two teams still in the running for the division title and their collective future competition, the strength of schedule factor is virtually a moot point.
Ironically, both Cleveland and Pittsburgh have one game left against a division opponent, the Browns have the Bengals in week 16, and the Steelers have the Ravens in week 17, both being road games for Cleveland and Pittsburgh, and giving Baltimore and Cincinnati both chances to spoil the party for the teams from the Rock and Roll Capitol and Steel City.
Both the Steelers and Browns face their toughest challenges in terms of remaining opponents this weekend, as Cleveland hosts Buffalo and Pittsburgh hosts Jacksonville. The Jaguars have an excellent chance of beating Pittsburgh, and Cleveland should beat Buffalo, so the two teams could be tied after this weekend’s games have been played.
So, with all the variables, the could happens, and the should happens, taken into consideration, who will win the AFC North? I don’t make predictions, but I will call this a projection. If Cleveland does beat Buffalo and Jacksonville beats Pittsburgh, then I project that the season ends with both teams at 11-5, and the 2007 AFC North champions will be the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Browns will make the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
