Ahh...Yes... The Shrub has steped out to an almost un touchable lead.

 2. is Jr. He is 253 back

 3. Burton 271 back

 4. Jimmie 315 back

 5. Edwards 320 back. Now these for a seperated by only 67.  Carl back to Gordon is 140 points I think the top 5 will stay the same. They may change spots but I dont think they will fall out of the top five.  Now Shrub has 7 wins. Thats 70 points into the chase. Jimmie and Carl both have credit for 2. Thats 20. 50 back of Shrub. Jr. and Burton have 1. Thats ten 60 back.

 6. Gordon 460 back. no wins.

 7. Biffle 544 back no wins.

 8. Hamlin 551 back 1 win.

 9. Kahne 563 back 2 wins.  Now here we have a 103 point diffrence from 6th to 9th. Now Gordon is 184 points ahead of 13th Harvick. I think Gordon will be in. Kahne is 93 points ahaed of 13th. That is a big gap as well. If Kahne keeps running the way he has he will be in. With Kahne 2 wins and Hamlin with one they will both be ahead of Biffle and Gordon chase time.

 10. Smoke 605 back.

 11. Kenseth 638 back.

 12. Boyer 642 back.

 Outside looking in.

 13. Harvick 644 back only 39 back of 10th and Smoke.

 14. Ragan 698 back only 57 out of 12th and 93 back of Smoke.

 15. Brian Vickers 774 only132 out of 12th. Thats alot to make up. Indy and losing a motor hurt bad. Still has a shot. Just a very long shot.

 16. Newman 786 only 142 back. Also a real long shot. He I think can concentrate on looking for his new home.

 Well As you can see I think the top five are a sure thing for the chase. 6th through 9th have to keep doing good. They could have 2 bad weeks and be on the outside looking in. I dont see that happing. Everham teams are getting on track. Rousch is making a run with multiple cars. Gibbs enough said. And Hendricks as well.

 Now the race to watch for the chase is 10th thru 16th. I know 15th and 16th are a long shot but a shot none the less. 10th thru 14th can change in any givin race. You could have Ragan in 10th and Smoke looking in from outside the glass after one race.

 So my picks. I still have dim hopes of Vickers making it. Maybe it wont happen but always hopefull. Tony will win. He doesnt want to go a year with out one. He also I think wants to leave Gibbs proving he is as good as day one.

  Kenseth needs to get lady BadLuck off his back. He will have a fight to stay in. He has the Cat in the Hat to help. I dont think they are going to give up anytime soon.

 Boyer has alot of work to do as well. He has the team. He has the car. Does he have it in him? We will see. I know he will fight for all he can get.

 Harvick to no cause of his own got smacked out at Indy. He will be one to move up past 12th. He is hard driven and has everything going well. The wreck was nothing to do with his driving.

 Ragan is a pleasent surprise. The Kid is proving he has it all. If he misses the chase it will be only from bad luck. He has a great future. Just think maybe not the chase this year.

 I see at this time. 1. Shrub. 2. Johnson 3. Kahne 4. Edwards 5.6.7.8.9.10. all tied with a win. Hamlin has won. Jr. as well. Burton has another. Gordon Stewart and Harvick will win yet before the chase and round out the tie for 5th to 10th.

 Now 11th and 12th with no win. Biffle will not win but is in the chase and 11th. 12th I think is going to be Kenseth. He will come back the next few races and race hard. Who knows he might get a win.

 That is my chase list. It will be fun to watch. I hope Nascar and GoodYear get past this problem from Indy and Moves to a great racing tire for the rest of the year.