At
the beginning of last week Tim mentioned on the radio show that I was
on a nice run in the NBA, and had won four out of the last five weeks.
I won again last week, despite getting #### by Phoenix with another
half point Q1 loss, and a blown Q4 lead by Houston.
Still, I managed
to grind out another week of profit, which I view as solid “training
camp” for the upcoming baseball season, when it is REALLY important to
grind out weekly profits using handicapping knowledge, patience, and
sound money management principles (more on MLB play in my next blog,
which should be posted right after the long-promised and now believed
to be imaginary NBA and OT blog I have been working on.)
But the best
thing to come of last week was not the now-higher digits I found in my
bank account come Monday morning - the best part of it did not come
from a win, but from a loss.
A couple of weeks
ago I did a post-fight column, in which I explained how I always look
at a sporting event with two eyes, two minds – one set on the game (and
wager) at hand, the other searching for an edge I can use in an
upcoming event. And while watching a couple NBA games this past week I
spotted something that I thought I could use in the future, and had it
confirmed when I watched the same team two days later.
Football may be King, as they say, but KNOWLEDGE is POWER.
Now, it’s only a
matter of time before the playoffs begin, the real season, when you can
remove angles such as a team’s possible lack of interest and focus, and
I plan to use this knowledge to pad the bank account a bit more in the post season.
During the playoffs I won’t wager on games on the almost daily basis I have in the NBA over the course of the second half of the season. I’ll have a couple of single game plays, and at least one series wager.
The reason for this is two-fold:
1) my style of capping does not lend itself to playoffs
and
2) it is time to do battle with the Beast - major league baseball; and I do not like a divided focus when battling the numbers – I hone in on beating one sport a time.
ESPECIALLY when the opponent is baseball. If #### hadn't divided his
focus and tried to win on too many fronts he may have gone on to win
the war (in which case we would have had to nuke his retarded #### at
some point in the future.)
Like the post
season in college football, I won’t have a lot of plays, but like the
post season there I have the tools to win again in the NBA.
There is precious, few time left - ride along with me as I continue to finish strong in the pro hoops . . .
While
Bill Murray had a memorable line about "a Cinderella story" at the
Masters in the movie "Caddyshack", the tournament hasn't produced too
many underdog victors over the years. Other majors can routinely
produce some obscure champions like Ben Curtis and Shaun Micheel. Of
course, the other three Grand Slam events are played on different
courses on a yearly basis. The Masters is the only major that is played
on the same course every year. The layout of Augusta National has more
often than not led to the cream of the crop rising to the top on Sunday
afternoon. Legends Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer combined to win ten
Green Jackets by overpowering foes who could not match the big drives
from Jack and Arnie at Augusta. The combination of power and skill is
still producing champions two decades after Nicklaus won his last
Masters title.
Golf's current "Big 5" of Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh,
Ernie Ells, and Retief Goosen have been all over the Masters leader
board in this decade. Woods, Mickelson, and Singh have combined to win
six of the seven Masters titles since 2000. While some no-names
typically pop up on Masters leader boards on Thursday and Friday, they
usually disappear by the back 9 of Saturday's 3rd round. It is at about
this time every year when golf's best usually make a charge to the top
of the leader board. When 72 holes are completed at Augusta, the
"Cinderella" golfers from Thursday and Friday are absent from the final
leader board. The "Big 5" have produced some solid and consistent
results since 2000:
Woods-3 Wins,5 Top 5's
Mickelson-2 Wins, 7 Top 10's
Singh-1 Win, 6 Top 10's
Ells-5 Top 10's
Goosen- 3 Top 5's
So, if you are looking for a long shot to back this week, you might not
get much #### for the buck. The remaining three Grand Slam events will
likely provide some better opportunities to find some live underdogs.
The Masters is the ultimate tournament for golf's best of the best to
shine.
This
is the 30th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
San Francisco Giants-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 80 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-76
2005-75
2004-91
3-year average: 81
Lineup-The Giants have a veteran group of bats in their lineup. Here's a look:
C-Bengie Molina(32): Molina hit 19 homers in just 117 games last season in Toronto.
1B-Rich Aurilia(35): Aurilia returns to the Giants for the first time
since 2003. He hit 23 homers in 122 games in 2006 for the Reds.
2B-Ray Durham(35): Durham had a career-best 93 RBI's in 2006 despite missing 25 games. A solid bat at second base.
SS-Omar Vizquel(39): Vizquel is still a productive hitter as he hit .295 in 2006 with 10 triples.
3B-Pedro Feliz(31): Feliz had a career-high 98 RBI's last season. He
has had at least 20 HR's and 30 doubles in each of the last three
seasons.
LF-Barry Bonds(42): After playing in only 14 games in 2005, Bonds hit
26 homers in 130 games in 2006 to move within 22 homers of Henry Aaron.
Bonds provides a domino effect for the lineup with his power and his
ability to draw walks.
C####ave Roberts(34): The Giants are hoping the speed of Roberts will
bring a new dimension to the lineup. In his last two years in San
Diego, he stole 120 bases with 23 triples.
RF-Randy Winn(32): Winn is a solid line drive bat in right field for the Giants.
Overall lineup outlook(3 right-handed batters,2 left-handed batters,
and 2 switch-hitters): Even with Bonds in the lineup for most of the
year, the Giants only finished 10th in the NL in runs scored a year
ago. With all of the everyday players past the age of 30, San Francisco
will be hard pressed to make an improvement in 2007. While all of these
hitters are capable performers, they have already played their best
baseball. Also, age and injuries will certainly come into play for this
team over a long 162-game campaign. Look for the Giants to be in the
bottom half of NL offenses again in 2007.
Starting rotation-Barry Zito is on board as the new staff ace.
LHP-Barry Zito(28): Since posting a 47-17 record in his first three big
league campaigns, Zito has only been slightly above .500 in the last
four years with a 55-46 record. He will be counted on after the
departure of Jason Schmidt.
RHP-Matt Cain(22): Cain has some nasty stuff as the number two starter.
He came on after last season's All-Star break to post a 3.26 E.R.A. in
15 starts.
LHP-Noah Lowry(26): After a posting a 3.80 E.R.A. in his first two
seasons, Lowry struggled to a 4.75 E.R.A. in 2006. He must have a
rebound year in 2007 if the Giants are going to contend.
RHP-Matt Morris(32): After winning 79 games in his last five seasons in
St. Louis, Morris might be a shot pitcher after posting a five E.R.A.
in his first year with the Giants.
RHP-Russ Ortiz(32): The Giants are hoping that Ortiz can recapture some
past magic in his return to San Francisco. After being a big winner
with the Giants and Braves, Ortiz has posted a record of 5-19 over the
last two seasons with an E.R.A. of over seven.
Overall rotation outlook: Five years ago, this staff would have had
three of the top arms in baseball with Zito, Morris, and Ortiz. Five
years later, this trio isn't quite the same. While Zito is still an
elite pitcher, his E.R.A. of 4.05 since 2004 isn't overwhelming. Zito
and Cain should be fine at the top of the rotation but spots 3-5 are
pretty shaky. It is a reach to expect Morris and Ortiz to approach
their old forms. Look for the Giants to have a middle of the pack NL
starting staff in 2007.
Bullpen-The Giants have a decent, if not outstanding, bullpen.
Setup relief-RHP Kevin Correia(26) posted a solid 3.49 E.R.A. in 2006.
LHP Steve Kline(34) has been a quality lefty specialist for several
seasons. LHP Brad Hennessey(27) is versatile with his ability to
relieve or start.
Closer-RHP Armando Benitez(34): While Benitez has compiled 280 saves,
he is no longer as dominant as he used to be. He blew 8 of 25 save
chances in 2006.
Overall pitching outlook: The Giants were 8th in the NL in runs allowed
in 2006. While Zito is a few years younger than Schmidt, the
performance level of the two pitchers should be pretty similar in 2007.
Cain should only get better as he continues to harness his stuff.
However, there aren't enough real positives for the rest of the
pitching staff. The back of the rotation is shaky and there are some
minor depth concerns in the pen. Look for the Giants to be in the
middle of NL pitching staffs again in 2007.
Final recap and recommendation: The Giants have tried to win with a
veteran team since 2005. After two losing seasons, San Francisco will
try again to make one last push with Barry Bonds and a lineup of
players over the age of 30. While the Giants have a group of vets with
some solid track records, it is hard to expect this team to do severe
offensive damage in 2007. The pitching also appears to be average
heading into this campaign. To sum it up, San Francisco doesn't have
enough of an upside to make significant improvement in 2007.
This
is the 29th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
San Diego Padres-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 83 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-88
2005-82
2004-87
3-year average: 86
Lineup-A lack of power is a concern for the Padres in 2007. Here's a look:
C-Josh Bard(29): Bard was a surprise offensive force in 93 games for
San Diego last season with a .338 average and some occasional pop with
9 HR's.
1B-Adrian Gonzalez(24): Gonzalez is a young bat to build around as he pounded 24 HR's in 2006.
2B-Marcus Giles(28): Giles average has slipped in each of the last
three seasons since he hit .316 in 2003. While he will get to play with
his brother Brian in San Diego, Giles could be hard pressed to rebound
offensively with half of his games coming in arguably the most
difficult hitting park in the majors.
SS-Khalil Greene(27): Greene has hit 15 HR's in each of the last three
seasons. However, he has been slowed by some nagging injuries as Greene
has missed 105 games since 2004.
3B-Kevin Kouzmanoff(25): The highly touted prospect has only 16 games
of major league experience as he gets a chance to be the Padres 3B in
2007.
LF-Termel Sledge(30): Sledge has played in only 58 games over the last
two seasons after hitting 15 homers as a rookie in Montreal in 2004.
CF-Mike Cameron(34): Cameron has some nice speed and pop as a CF. In
2006, he hit more than 20 HR's with more than 20 stolen bases for the
5th time in his career.
RF-Brian Giles(36): Even though his power numbers have slipped since
joining the Padres, Giles is still highly productive as a hitter. He
has drawn over 100 walks in a season in five of the last seven years.
Overall lineup outlook(4 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters,
and 2 switch-hitters): The Padres were 13th in the NL in runs scored in
2006. These numbers are a little skewed by the difficulty of scoring
runs at Petco Park. San Diego had the NL's 4th best road offense in
2006. The Padres do lack a dominant power bat in the order. They also
don't have a lot of high average bats. However, there are some quality
line-drive hitters as evidenced by the road performance in 2006. San
Diego will likely be near the bottom in the NL runs scored again in
2007 but the offense will be able to do enough to win in support of an
outstanding pitching staff.
Starting rotation-The Padres have a good mix of strong young arms and proven vets in their rotation for 2007.
RHP-Jake Peavy(25): After posting an E.R.A. of under three in 2004-05,
Peavy wasn't quite as effective in 2006 with a 4.09 E.R.A. Still, he is
a dominant number one for the Padres to build around in the years to
come.
RHP-Chris Young(27): Young had an outstanding first season in San Diego
with a 3.46 E.R.A. in 2006. A nice number two to compliment Peavy.
RHP-Greg Maddux(41): After posting an E.R.A. of over four in two and a
half seasons with the Cubs, Maddux came to life in 12 starts for the
Dodgers by posting a 3.36 E.R.A. He should be able to thrive in his
starts at Petco Park this season.
RHP-Clay Hensley(27): A quality young arm at the back of the rotation,
Hensley has a fine career E.R.A. of 3.30 in two big league campaigns.
LHP-David Wells(43): Wells helped San Diego down the stretch last year
with a 3.49 in five starts after coming over from Boston. He was
effective in his prior stint with the Padres in 2004 with a 3.73
E.R.A.
Overall rotation outlook: The Padres are well suited for another
playoff run with this deep rotation. Peavy and Young form an
outstanding duo at the top of this staff. Even past the age of 40,
Maddux and Wells are still able to work effectively. San Diego will
have one of the top 3 NL starting staffs in 2007.
Bullpen-The Padres have a good bullpen to support the starting arms.
Setup relief-RHP Scott Linebrink(30) has been one of the better NL
setup relievers in recent seasons. RHP Cla Meredith(23) was untouchable
in 2006. He posted a 1.07 E.R.A. and allowed only 30 hits in 50.2
innings of work. RHP Scott Cassidy(31) is another quality bullpen arm
as he posted a 2.53 E.R.A. last season.
Closer-RHP Trevor Hoffman(39): Hoffman shows no signs of slowing down
after posting his third straight season of more than 40 saves in 2006.
He only needs 18 saves this year to reach the 500 mark in his career.
Overall pitching outlook: The Padres easily allowed the fewest runs in
the NL in 2006. The 2007 season should result in some similar results.
San Diego has plenty of quality arms in the starting staff as well in
the bullpen. The overall staff has an ideal mix of strong young arms
and proven veterans who still have something left in the tank. The
Padres are poised to have the NL's best pitching unit again in
2007.
Final recap and recommendation: The Padres have learned how to win with
consecutive playoff appearances heading into the 2007 campaign. While a
third straight playoff trip might be out of reach, San Diego will
deliver another winning season this year. Even with an offense that
won't overpower too many foes in 2007, the Padres won't have to score
too much behind the league's best pitching staff. The arms will carry
San Diego to more wins than losses this season as the Padres win at
least 84 contests in 2007.
There
are certain days that appeal to most sports fans, the type of days
where our television set truly becomes the single most important
possession that we own. The opening weekend of March Madness stands
out as this type of ‘must watch’ event, with college basketball on tap
non-stop from morning till night. The Super Bowl is another ‘event’
type of day, where the Big Game is most assuredly a television
spectacle.
While the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament and the weekend
of the Super Bowl are the two biggest sports weekends of the year here
in Las Vegas, there are no shortage of other qualified candidates to
serve as ‘must watch’ days. The opening Sunday of the NFL certainly
deserves some consideration, as does the Sunday with the AFC and NFC
championship games in the playoffs. The opening Saturday of the
college football season also stands out, as does New Year’s Day for all
the bowl games.
But the first Monday in April is truly one of my favorite days of
the year to sit in front of the TV from morning till night, taking
everything in. All day long we’ve got baseball, with opening day on
tap for 26 of the 30 major league teams. With nine day games, four of
them on national TV, even casual fans can get a good feel for the
excitement level that is a prerequisite for opening day. Hope springs
eternal at this time of the year, even for fans of perennial bottom
feeders like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Devil
Rays and Kansas City Royals, the four biggest underdogs on today’s card.
Watching a baseball game is nothing like watching football or
basketball on television. The pace is slower – much slower. Every
pitch is it’s own little battle; every inning has a story to tell. You
don’t have the jaw dropping grace of the basketball world, or the brute
physicality that makes football what it is. That’s why the great
baseball announcers have the uncanny ability to tell one folksy story
after the next – baseball is a game where the story must be enough to
attract viewers, without the consistent fast paced excitement of the
other leagues.
As I write this blog entry, we’ve already seen the season’s
opening contest as the Mets knocked off the Cardinals last night. The
action begins anew in less than an hour – expect nothing but baseball
on the three television sets in my home office between now and
tonight…. until the NCAA Championship game tips off this evening, that
is.
Baseball is the only sport that has their opening day on the same
day as another sport’s title game. Heck, even the NBA doesn’t have a
single game scheduled for this evening, as usual on national
championship Monday. College hoops fans are probably in for a treat
this evening, because this game, unlike many other heavily hyped
sporting events, is a classic battle more often than not.
My college basketball memories start with three of the best games
that I watched as a teenager. First came North Carolina beating
Georgetown 63-62 on Michael Jordan’s game winning shot in the 1982
championship game. Then came Jim Valvano’s moment of glory as NC State
upset the Phi Slama Jama Houston squad 54-52 the following year. And
Villanova’s upset win over Georgetown 66-64 in the 1985 championship
game merits serious consideration as the best college basketball game
ever.
But it doesn’t end there. Louisville beat Duke by three points in
1986. Indiana beat Syracuse by one in 1987. Kansas beat Oklahoma by
four in 1988. Michigan beat Seton Hall by a single point in overtime
in 1989. In more recent years, we’ve seen great games like the
Arizona-Kentucky overtime battle in 1997; the UConn upset over Duke in
1999, Syracuse hanging on to beat Kansas by three in 2003 and the North
Carolina-Illinois battle two years ago. In all, since that classic Tar
Heels championship run in ’82, 18 of the 25 NCAA championship games
have come down to the wire, decided by single digit margins. Unlike
the Super Bowl, this game generally lives up to the hype.
So, that leaves us with one of the great sporting days of the
year, the first Monday in April. Wall to wall opening day baseball all
morning and afternoon, with the NCAA championship game as a worthy
nightcap. Don’t expect to see me leave my La-Z-Boy at any point today,
other than for the occasional pit stop.
If you’ve read my Bio at Sports Memo, you
know I listed my favorite sports announcer as Kevin Harlan. Tonight’s
college basketball national title game between Florida and Ohio State
will be broadcast on WestwoodOne radio nationwide with Kevin Harlan
providing the play-by-play coverage. In my opinion, Harlan’s coverage
of the game is the best in the business, as he’s colorful,
entertaining, but most importantly descriptive. He’s known for his
witty dialogue and vast assortment of creative banter. Yet, he provides
a visualization that few others approach when announcing a game. If
you’re at home and watching the game on TV, I recommend turning down
the television volume and voices of Jim Nance and Billy Packer and
listening to Harlan’s play-by-play radio coverage. The color
commentators are Bill Raftery and John Thompson, the former Georgetown
coach.
I caught portions of the semi-final games Saturday
night, and was able to listen to Harlan describe the action. I like
that he gives a regular score update and even shot-clock updates, as
there is nothing more frustrating to a bettor than to tune into a game
and wait many minutes to hear the score. While I didn’t hear any of his
widely known ‘Right between the Eyes’, or ‘Oh baby, what a play’
screaming of basketball brilliance, I did hear precise, colorful
description of the game. Harlan doesn’t just tell you that the player
‘dribbles past’ the defender, it’s a ‘crossover’ dribble. No ‘shot missed’ from the outside, it’s ‘an 18-footjumper off the back
rim’. Everything is visually descriptive, and I tried to take some
notes while both driving and ultimately at my home office desk while
listening and watching coverage of the Ohio State/Georgetown game and
UCLA versus Florida. Here are some lines. Ohio State is moving from right-to-left, bounce pass by Conley, picked up between the circles, Oden spins inside for a two-handed dunk. Double-team with back to the basket, lob pass inside to Horford who leans on Mbah a Moute. Collison left-handed dribble and bounce pass to Afflalo on the right wing. Man-to-man defense by the Gators with Brewer on him. Afflalo goes galloping down the lane. UCLA is clad in blue with gold trim. Ben Howland is half-way on the floor begging the official…! Again, everything is visual, as listening on the radio I even know what color the team is wearing.
Here is a bio and description of Kevin Harlan,
who was born in Milwaukee, Wisconsin and is the son of Green Bay
Packers President and CEO Bob Harlan. He has been broadcasting NBA
games on television through TNT for ten years. I always enjoyed his
coverage with Doug Collins as color man. Previously, Harlan worked with
Danny Ainge and John Thompson on TNT. His expertise and interest has
grown over the years, as he has provided coverage for NFL and college
basketball games on FOX, CBS and ESPN. My interest in Kevin Harlan
calling games goes back to my days living in Minneapolis, as Harlan was
the original play-by-play man for the Minnesota Timberwolves for nine
seasons. While the T’Wolves were the laughingstock of the NBA in their
early years, Harlan was providing tremendous coverage that was keeping
fan interest, despite the teams horrific performance. Obviously, the
broadcast stations took notice, as Harlan has become one of the top
professionals in radio and television coverage for the NFL, NBA and
college basketball.
Tune in tonight on ESPN 920 in Las Vegas and
WestwoodOne radio nationwide, as Harlan provides coverage of tonight’s
national title game between Ohio State and Florida. Plenty of great
action and coverage tonight, and maybe even an ‘Oh baby, what a play’!
This
is the 28th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
Washington Nationals-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 68 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-67
2005-83
2004-83
3-year average: 78
Lineup-Without Alphonso Soriano this season, the Nationals offense will likely have some struggles. Here's a look:
C-Brian Schneider(30): Schneider has never had more than 55 RBI's in his four seasons as the Nationals regular catcher.
1B-Nick Johnson(28): Johnson is still recovering from a broken leg
and will likely not be able to play until at least June. A huge blow
for Washington as Johnson had 23 HR's, 110 walks, and 100 runs scored
in 2006. Veteran Dmitri Young will man 1st until Johnson returns.
2B-Felipe Lopez(26): Lopez has become an offesnive factor with 195
runs scored over the last two seasons. However, after hitting 23 HR's
with 85 RBI's in 2005, Lopez had a huge drop in power production in
2006 with just 11 HR's and 52 RBI's.
SS-Cristian Guzman(29): Guzman will try to return to the form he
showed early in his career in Minnesota after missing the entire 2006
season and hitting only .219 in his first year with the Nationals in
2005.
3B-Ryan Zimmerman(22): A player that Washington can build around in
the years to come. Zimmerman had 110 RBI's as a rookie in 2006.
LF-Ryan Church(28): Church will likely be a platoon player in 2007.
He has shown a little pop in three seasons with 20 HR's in 527
at-bats.
CF-Nook Logan(27): The speedy Logan will hope to bring a spark to
the Nationals lineup in 2007. He had 23 steals for the Tigers in 2005.
RF-Austin Kearns(26): After putting up some big numbers in the first
half of last year with the Reds, Kearns had a drop in production with
the Nationals. Despite high expectations, Kearns never fulfilled his
promise in Cincinnati but he is still just 26.
Overall lineup outlook(2 right-handed batters, 3 left-handed batter,
and 3 switch-hitters): The Nationals were 10th in the NL in runs scored
in 2006. Without Soriano and with Johnson on the shelf for awhile,
Washington will have some trouble putting together any consistent
offense in 2007. Zimmerman and Kearns are the only locks to hit at
least 15+ HR's in this lineup. The non-power hitters don't get on base
enough to have any real impact on this offense. Washington falls to the
very bottom of NL offenses in 2007.
Starting rotation-The weak offense likely won't get much support from a suspect starting pitching staff.
RHP-John Patterson(29): After a big year in 2005(3.13 E.R.A.), Patterson was limited to eight starts in 2006 due to injury.
RHP-Shwan Hill(25): Hill posted an E.R.A. of 4.66 in six starts for the Nationals last season.
LHP-Matt Chico(23): His first pitch of 2007 will be the first of his
big league career as Chico is thrown into the fire in the Nationals
rotation.
RHP-Jason Bergmann(25): Another untested Nats starter, Bergmann has
only made seven starts in two big league seasons with a career E.R.A.
of near six.
RHP-Jerome Williams(25): Williams, a former top prospect for the
Giants, made only two major league starts in 2006. He does have a
respectable 4.03 career E.R.A. but his stock has dropped considerably
since his early promise with the Giants.
Overall rotation outlook: The projected starters combined to make
only 22 starts last season. The pitching for outlook is pretty bleak.
Patterson is the only pitcher likely to produce for Washington and even
he is a slight question mark after last season's injury. The struggles
of the starters will eventaully wear down th bullpen as the season
progresses. Look for Washington to have the NL's worst starting staff
in 2007.
Bullpen-The pen will likely get plenty of innings in 2007.
Setup relief-RHP Jon Rauch(28) was a workhorse in 2006 with a 3.35
E.R.A. in 85 appearances. RHP Ryan Wagner(24) has great potential as a
late-inning reliever after showing some promise as a former top
prospect with the Reds. Veteran LHP Ray King(33) will be a key
specialist in 2007.
Closer-RHP Chad Cordero(25) has developed into one of the NL's best closers with 76 saves over the last two seasons.
Overall pitching outlook: The Nationals gave up the most runs of any
NL team in 2006. The 2007 season should result in a repeat performance.
While a full season from Patterson will help, there are too many
unproven arms in the rest of the rotation. The bullpen is decent but
Cordero will be unlikley to get too many save opportunities this
season. Look for Washington to have another long season of pitching
woes in 2007.
Final recap and recommendation: There is little left from the
Nationals teams that won 83 games in the 2004 and 2005 seasons. While
the Expos/Nationals organization has traditionally produced a vast
amount of talent, the current roster is lacking in prospects. zimmerman
is the only impact player in the lineup that the organization has
produced. Until the farm system has a resurgence, the Nats are facing
some difficult times. The 2007 Nationals face little chance of
improving from last year's 67-win campaign. It is more likely than not
that this Washington team will lose 100+ games in 2007 as this
rebuilding process will face some rough times this season.
This
is the 27th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
Toronto Blue Jays-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 86 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-87
2005-80
2004-67
3-year average: 78
Lineup-Frank Thomas is the big addition to this year's lineup. Here's a look:
C-Greg Zaun(35): The veteran doesn't have a high average or much
power. However, he has been productive for Toronto with an on-base
average of over .360 in his three seasons for the Blue Jays.
1B-Lyle Overbay(30): Overbay had a career-year in his first season
in Toronto last year with personal highs in HR's, RBI's, and batting
average.
2B-Aaron Hill(25): Hill hit a solid .291 in 2006 for the Blue Jays.
SS-Royce Clayton(37): Clayton will be playing for the 10th different
team in his career as he joins Toronto in 2007. He will be counted on
for defense more than offense with the Blue Jays.
3B-Troy Glaus(30): Glaus pounded 38 HR's in his first season in Toronto in 2006.
LF-Reed Johnson(30): Johnson proved to be a valuable line-drive bat
for the Blue Jays last year with a .319 average and 34 doubles.
CF-Vernon Wells(28): Wells has outstanding power for a center-fielder as he has averaged 28 HR's over the last five seasons.
RF-Alex Rios(25): Another great young talent for Toronto, Rios drove in 82 runs in 2006 despite missing 34 games.
DH-Frank Thomas(38): After playing in a total of just 108 games in
the previous two years, Thomas had a comeback season in Oakland in 2006
with 39 HR's and 114 RBI's.
Overall lineup outlook(7 right-handed batters, 1 left-handed batter,
and 1 switch-hitter): The Blue Jays were 7th in the AL in runs scored
and 4th in homers in 2006. This offense should be able to improve a
notch or two in 2007. Toronto has five hitters that are likely to drive
in 90+ runs in 2007. The Blue Jays also display excellent patience at
the plate with several batters in the lineup that draw a good number of
walks. The combination of the walks and the HR power makes this Toronto
offense capable of doing quick damage in a game. Look for the Blue Jays
to be a top 5 AL offense in 2007.
Starting rotation-Toronto may not have enough starting pitching to make a playoff run in 2007.
RHP-Roy Halladay(29): After some injuries limited him to only 40
starts in 2004-05, Halladay rebounded to make 32 starts last season. He
has become the AL's top right-handed starter in the last five years
with a dazzling 77-31 record.
RHP-A.J. Burnett(30): Despite some outstanding stuff, Burnett is
only one game above .500 in his career. Constant injuries have limited
Burnett as he has only had one season with at least 30 starts. With a
lot of questions at the back of this rotation, the Blue Jays will need
a full season from him to contend in 2007.
LHP-Gustavo Chacin(26): After a strong 2005 (3.72 E.R.A.), Chacin
was slowed by some injuries in 2006. He struggled to an E.R.A. of over
five in 17 starts and allowed a whopping 19 HR's in just 87.1 innings
of work.
RHP-Tomo Ohka(31): Like Burnett, Ohka has had trouble staying
healthy for an entire season at times. He has been limited to fewer
than 20 starts in two of the last three years.
RHP-Josh Towers(30): Towers has been inconsistent in his four
seasons with the Blue Jays. He won a spot in this rotation in the
spring despite posting an E.R.A. of 8.42 last season in 15 appearances.
Overall rotation outlook: The Blue Jays have a fragile group of
starting arms as all five projected starters have had some some injury
problems in recent years. In addition, the loss of Ted Lilly will
clearly be felt. If healthy, Burnett and Chacin should be quality No.
2's and 3's behind Halladay. However, the four and five spots could be
major problem areas for this club. Veterans Victor Zambrano and John
Thompson do give the Blue Jays some options if Ohka and Towers falter.
Even with Halladay, this Blue Jays starting staff will likely be in the
middle of the pack of AL rotations in 2007.
Bullpen-The Blue Jays have some depth issues in this year's pen.
Setup relief-LHP Scott Downs(31) is the top lefty out of the Toronto
pen. LHP Brian Tallet(29) is another quality lefty arm for the Jays.
RHP Brandon League(24) will get more work in 2007 after posting a 2.53
E.R.A. in 2006.
Closer-LHP B.J. Ryan(31) was nasty as Toronto's closer in 2006 as he
allowed only 42 hits in 72.1 innings of pitching while posting a 1.37
E.R.A.
Overall pitching outlook: The Blue Jays were 5th in the AL in runs
allowed in 2006. The loss of Lilly and top setup reliever Justin Speier
will hurt Toronto in 2007. However, Toronto should be able to get more
from Burnett and Chacin in 2007 after duo combined to make only 38
starts last season. The Blue Jays could be a very serious playoff
contender if Burnett and Chacin can make 60+ starts to support
Halladay. However, the questionable 4th and 5th starters, along with a
bullpen that won't be as good without Speier, will likely drop the
overall Toronto pitching back to a middle of the road AL pitching
unit.
Final recap and recommendation: In seven of the last nine seasons,
Toronto has won between 80 to 88 games. This has left Toronto just a
little short of being a playoff team. While the Blue Jays have asembled
a team that has some great potential, there are still enough question
marks to leave this club out of the post-season again in 2007. However,
Toronto will still be a difficult squad to face this season. The
thunder in the everyday lineup will do some damage while Halladay and
Ryan continue to be one of the better starter/closer duos in baseball.
The Blue Jays have enough to at least match last season's win total of
87 in 2007.
I remember it very clearly, where I was in place and time, and the number I was writing on the check – and why.
I
was a pup in the world of wagering on sports, entering my first season
of betting on baseball. I was, a newbie, a novice . . . a knucklehead.
What? No point spread? I only have to pick the winner to collect on my
bet?
THAT’S EASY!
And, unfortunately for me, it was easy.
Like
the first time I played the lottery and hit four numbers on the lone
Pick 6 ticket I bought (this of course came much before I learned the
true odds of the lottery, and the disgusting rake for the house, NJ
keeping a percentage that would shame even the greediest of loan
sharks) like the first time I played craps (I dropped $100 “just to
learn how it works” and cashed out with 5 times that), and like the
first Sunday I bet on an NFL game (all these years later I still
remember the game - a late come from behind TD gave Oakland, and me, a
win.)
I
have always been a believer in, and recipient of beginners luck. But
the down side is it makes you a tequila superman – you think you’re
invincible, that it will always be that easy.
And, of course – it isn’t.
And
so it was that I found myself on that Monday, in my kitchen at home on
Victoria Ave in Piscataway, filling out a check to give to my local
bookie, for an amount just over $600. Because on the last day of the
betting week I was down $200. And, having won the previous three weeks
I had been playing, I wasn’t about to give any money back.
So, I saw Dave Stieb was a 2 to 1 favorite over some lousy team (which one? My memory is not THAT good) on Sunday afternoon.
All I had to do was bet $400 and I’d win my $200 back, break even, call it a week and start again on Monday.
Naturally, the Beast ate me alive.
But,
I crossed over on that day. It was one big step on the way to becoming
an investor, and not a gambler. I make mistakes, but I don’t make the
same ones twice. It is the lesson I learned in the corporate world, one
that served me well there, and would now be applied for success in
sports wagering.
I learned to never chase, and I never did it again. I learned that patience, and education, win in the end.
Baseball
is a Beast (always spelled with a capital “B” as in names due respect.)
Over the years I have first-hand witnessed it devour many a gambler.
The
high priced money line favorites, combined with the public’s love of
playing favorites and their hatred of losing their money, has sent many
a gambler to the poor house.
Or to money lenders.
I have seen it make people stop betting altogether, more than any other sport. It is not a sport for gamblers.
Or novices.
Or newbies.
Or knuckleheads.
It
takes time, talent, hard work, experience, and patience to win. If you
have all those qualities – congrats and good luck this season. If you
don’t – look for help. I use a stock broker. Why? Because I do not have
time, talent or experience to make it wise for me to invest in those
areas. But I know someone who does, and he’s good. And so I use him. He has not always been right, but overall we’ve copped some decent coinage over the years.
The
reason I don’t do stocks is because I do sports. I approach baseball
the same way I approach basketball. The same disciplines, the same
experience, the same application. And as I write this column it is
early, Sunday morning - Sunday, the end of another working week at
wagering.
And I will not be writing a check to my bookie this week.
And I didn’t last week.
Or the week before.
I’m banking my sixth profitable week in the past seven.
And I'll finish the season with a profit.
And I’m ready to tackle the Beast once again . . .
I
just got back from my TV gig at a local studio. The segment, aired
nationwide on CNBC, featured a modest debate between myself and
longtime anti-gaming activist Arnie Wexler. Wexler, according to his
own biography, was a compulsive gambler from his teenage years until
1968, when he saw the light and cured his own addiction. For the last
25 years, Wexler has been a staunch anti-gaming advocate, using the
classic ‘legalized gambling encourages addicts’ argument. I wasn’t
buying.
This morning was even more hectic than a normal Friday morning.
On Friday mornings, I do four radio shows, and I also release my Arena
Football weekend package. That goes along with any additional blog
entries and basketball selections and write-ups. It’s a busy time.
This Friday, I got a call from Sportsmemo’s PR guru, Courtney Stark,
saying that CNBC wanted me on air. One problem though – I, quite
literally, had nothing to wear.
One of the reasons that I moved to Las Vegas in the first place
was my fear of business attire. I haven’t bought a suit, tie or dress
shirt since my brother’s wedding 15 years ago. When I occasionally
needed to dress up, I’d wear that same suit that I bought in the early
90’s. The last time I wore my jacket, I looked like Pee Wee Herman –
the suit was getting rather tight. Clearly, it was time for some
wardrobe upgrades.
So, after finishing the radio shows and getting my write-ups done,
I ran out and bought a new blazer and a button down white shirt. My
goal was to make the pro-gambling side of the argument look as
mainstream and professional as possible. I even shaved – no scruff
from this bettor on this day. Then I made my way to the studio without
too much difficulty.
TV recording studios look glamorous on the small screen, but the
reality is that they are just another enclosed, soundproof room – like
radio stations in that regard. The host was at the CNBC studios in New
York. The sports correspondent was in Atlanta, covering the Final
Four. I don’t know where my counterpart, Mr. Wexler, was located. And
I was sitting alone in a small studio here in Vegas, with a cameraman
and an earpiece as my only connections to the outside world. With all
of us in different places at the same time, with only a relatively
short 8-10 minute segment to share our opinions, it was difficult for
me to picture what our viewers were seeing.
The tagline of the piece was about potential lawsuits from
addicted gamblers who were involved in office pools across the
country. I haven’t heard of any employers facing a lawsuit from a
compulsive gaming employee, and apparently, neither had the host,
because the subject was brought up, then quickly dismissed.
Instead, the debate was rather limited. Wexler brought up
compulsive gamblers and gambling addiction. I said that while that was
a problem for some, the reality is that the government and businesses
can’t legislate behavior. People like to gamble, even for the small
stakes that most office pools provide. I genuinely believe that very,
very few people begin a life of compulsive gambling via office pools,
and tried to get that point across as succinctly as possible.
I tried to steer the debate towards the government legislation
side of the issue. I’ve written frequently over the past year about
the attacks against sports betting and poker in Congress and from the
Justice Department, and my feeling that the legislation is
fundamentally flawed. As CNBC tried to pick up viewers with their
catchy ‘office pools = lawsuits for employers’ tagline, I did my best
to steer the debate towards the broader issue.
CNBC’s ‘sports business reporter’ Darren Rovell seemed to share my
opinion that Arnie Wexler’s anti-gaming anecdotes were not all that
valid for the 21st century of sports betting. Between the
two of us, we got across the point that there are millions of honest,
hard working, tax paying Americans who like to bet, but who aren’t
compulsively wagering on anything and everything that we can bet on.
With any luck, that message will resonate with the general public and
with our Congressional leaders in Washington.
This
is the 26th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
Texas Rangers-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 80 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-80
2005-79
2004-89
3-year average: 82
Lineup-The Rangers have one baseball's best offensive infields. Here's a look:
C-Gerald Laird(27): Although Laird hit .296 in 78 games last year, he
doesn't figure to add much to the Texas offense as an everyday catcher.
He only has 10 career HR's in 159 games.
1B-Mark Teixeira(27): Teixeira heated up with 24 HR's after the
All-Star break after hitting only 9 HR's in the first half of 2006. He
has averaged 38 HR's with 122 RBI's over the last three years.
2B-Ian Kinsler(24): Kinsler had a solid rookie campaign in 2006 with a .286 average and 14 HR's in 120 games.
SS-Michael Young(30): Young hit over the .300 mark for the fourth
straight season in 2006. He had 52 doubles and drove in 103 runs last
year.
3B-Hank Blalock(26): After averaging 29 HR's with 97 RBI's from
2003-05, Blalock slipped a bit in 2006 with 16 HR's and 89 RBI's.
LF-Brad Wilkerson(29): Wilkerson was a disappointment in his first
season in Texas with a .222 average. The Rangers are hoping that he can
return to his 2004 form when he pounded 32 homers for the Expos.
CF-Kenny Lofton(39): Lofton has had a resurgence in the last couple of
seasons as he has hit over .300 in each campaign. He will platoon in
center as Lofton will sit out against left-handed hurlers.
RF-Nelson Cruz(26): The youngster will get more of a look in 2007 after only hitting .223 in 41 games last year.
DH-Frank Catalanotto(32): Catalanatto has been a solid line drive
hitter in his career with a .297 average. He will platoon with Sammy
Sosa at DH in 2007.
Overall lineup outlook(4 right-handed batters, 4 left-handed batters,
and 1 switch-hitter): The Rangers were 4th in the AL in runs scored in
2006. This lineup will likely drop back a notch or two in 2007. Texas
lost Carlos Lee and Gary Matthews to free agency. While the infield,
especially Teixeira and Young, is very solid, the rest of the batting
order is pretty average. Home run power could be a minor issue for this
team as Teixeria is the only player in this lineup who hit at least 20
HR's in 2006. Still, the Rangers have enough quality line drive and
doubles hitters to remain in the top half of AL offenses in 2007.
Starting rotation-The Rangers have some question marks beyond their top two starters.
RHP-Vicente Padilla(29): Padilla gave the Rangers a quality first
season with 15 wins in 2006. However, he hasn't had an E.R.A. below
4.50 since 2003.
RHP-Kevin Millwood(32): Millwood's numbers were similar to Padilla's in
2006 as the veteran won 16 games. Like Padilla, his E.R.A. (4.52 in
2006) is a little high for a No. 1-2 starter.
RHP-Robinson Tejada(25): The hard throwing youngster is still trying to
harness his stuff. Tejada, due to his control problems, has been a
5-inning pitcher in his career because of high pitch counts. However,
he does have some nice potential.
RHP-Brandon McCarthy(23): McCarthy displayed a lot of promise in two
seasons with the White Sox. However, he isn't in a great environment
for a young pitcher with half of his starts set to come in one of the
more lively big league ball parks in Arlington.
RHP-Jamey Wright(32): Wright's inclusion in the rotation can't exactly
be viewed as a promising sign for the 2007 Texas season. The ultimate
journeyman hurler has a career record of 67-98 with an E.R.A. of over
five.
Overall rotation outlook: The Rangers will have to closely monitor the
back half of this rotation in 2007. Tejada and McCarthy have never been
starting pitchers for an entire season. Will they be able to hold up
over 30 starts in the Texas heat? The fifth spot will likely be a
revolving door as Wright is a long shot to stay in this rotation over
an entire campaign. While Padilla and Millwood will keep Texas in a lot
of games, they aren't a dominant 1-2 combo compared to a lot of other
AL staffs. The Rangers rotation will likely be in the lower half of AL
staffs in 2007.
Bullpen-Eric Gagne will try to overcome some recent injuries as the new Rangers closer.
Setup relief-RHP Akinori Otsuka(35) was outstanding as the Texas closer
in 2006 with 32 saves and an E.R.A. of just over two. If things go
according to plans, he will be the 8th inning guy in 2007 before Gagne
comes in for the 9th. LHP Ron Mahay(35) will be the key lefty
specialist in 2007. Youngster LHP Scott Feldman(24) will get some more
chances in 2007 after a solid campaign in 2006.
Closer-RHP Eric Gagne(31): Gagne will be activated in mid-April. It's
been a long road back for Gagne as he has only pitched 15.1 innings
over the last two years. For three years, he was as dominant as any
closer in the history of baseball with 152 saves in 158 chances from
2002-04.
Overall pitching outlook: The Rangers were 8th in the AL in runs
allowed in 2006. Texas will be hard pressed to repeat this ranking in
2007. Starting spots 3-5 are questionable. Also, these starters are
unlikely to pitch deep into most games. The Otsuka-Gagne combo won't
get as nearly as many opportunities as the Shields-Rodriguez duo in
this division with the Angels. Otsuka and Gagne can only have a major
impact if they get to pitch with a lead. The rest of the Rangers staff
will have some difficulties accomplishing this in innings 1-7. Look for
the Rangers to drop back a notch or two in the AL runs allowed category
in 2007.
Final recap and recommendation: Since closing out the 90's with three
playoff appearances in a four-year span, Texas has managed to produce
only one winning season in this decade. The inability of this franchise
to develop big league arms has led to its' downfall in recent years.
While the A's and Angels are constantly producing top flight pitchers
in their farm system from the AL West, the Rangers are not. All of the
Texas projected starting pitchers and top bullpen arms for 2007 have
come from outside the Rangers organization. Even with a dynamic infield
of solid young players, the Rangers do not have enough in other areas
to win. While Showalter has been knocked by some critics as a manager,
he got a lot out of this team in the last three years. It would be
surprising if new manager Ron Washington will be able to be an
improvement compared to Showalter. Until the Rangers system starts
producing some pitching talent, Texas will continue to have losing
seasons.
Today
is different from most days. I get numerous chances each week to make
my case for a legalized, regulated sports betting environment on the
radio, with my daily appearances on the Sportsmemo radio show and on a
half dozen other radio stations around the country where I do a guest
spot each week. But today, I’ve received a relatively rare special
opportunity. I’m taking my case to national TV, with an appearance
scheduled for CNBC this afternoon.
I’ll be debating longtime anti-gaming activist Arnie Wexler on the
segment, hosted by Melissa Francis, scheduled to air between 1:40 and
2:00 PM here on the West Coast; 4:40-5:00 PM on the East Coast. The
story is about March Madness and office pools. More specifically, the
questions that I expect to be asked revolve around office pools and
gambling addiction. I’ll make the case that office pools do NOT fuel
gambling addiction in any way shape or form.
I have three basic points to make. First, while I’m sure that
Wexler will bring up his dubious ‘studies’ that show gambling addition
tearing apart the very fabric of American society, I plan to challenge
his numbers. I plan to argue strongly against the case that small time
$5 bettors around the country are being surreptitiously lured into a
lifetime of gambling addiction because they played in their office
bracket pool. Anecdotal evidence isn’t going to fly here, and the hard
numbers don’t show any connection between office pools and gambling
addiction.
Secondly, I’m going to make the case that office pools in
particular and sports betting in general are no different from other
dynamic betting marketplaces. White collar executives like to bet on
the stock market. The futures markets on Wall Street are very similar
to the betting markets here in Las Vegas and offshore. My goal here is
to position sports betting as a legitimate market trading activity, not
the compulsive habit of degenerate gamblers.
Last, but not least, I’m going to make the case that the
government can’t legislate human behavior. Adults like to gamble, not
just in this country, but all around the world. As humans, we’ve been
gambling since Old Testament times. The Puritans had gambling games in
Colonial New England, and the less pious early immigrants down South
gambled even more. The government is not against gambling per se –
look at the carve outs for state lotteries with their impossible odds,
and for horse racing with their powerful lobby. Turning ordinary
citizens into criminals is not what the government should be doing.
Yes, there are compulsive gamblers out there, people who genuinely
shouldn’t be betting on anything thanks to a serious addiction
problem. But there is only a tiny percentage of those compulsive
gamblers who got their feet wet in the betting world via office pools.
If we save one person from their own addiction while turning 1000
others into criminals or outcasts because of their inclusion in an
office pool, it’s not a trade that I’m willing to make.
Arnie Wexler is a crafty fellow, on the anti-gaming activist trail for nearly four decades. (You can read Wexler's story RIGHT HERE). I’ll do my best to present the pro-gaming side of the argument for a national audience this afternoon.
This
is the 25th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 67 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-61
2005-67
2004-70
3-year average: 66
Lineup-The Devil Rays have some promising youngsters in their lineup. Here's a look:
C-Dioner Navarro(23): Navarro is still adjusting to big league pitching with a .264 average in 451 career at-bats.
1B-TY Wiggington(29): After putting up some average offensive numbers
in the NL with the Mets and Pirates, Wiggington had a fine year in
Tampa last season with 24 HR's and 79 RBI's despite missing 40 games.
He makes the move from third to first in 2007.
2B-Jorge Cantu(25): Cantu was slowed by injuries in 2006 after he drove
in 117 runs in 2005. Still, he was productive with 62 RBI's in 107
games last year.
SS-Ben Zobrist(25): Zobrist will need to produce to hold off top
prospect B.J. Upton as the starting shortstop in 2007. Neither Zobrist
or Upton did any damage at the plate in limited action last year but
Upton is poised to eventually get the everyday job in Tampa.
3B-Akinori Iwamura(28): Iwamura hit 106 homers in his last three seasons in the Japanese league.
LF-Carl Crawford(25): Crawford hit a career-best .305 in 2006. He has
increased his HR total in each of his five big league campaigns.
CF-Rocco Baldelli(25): Baldelli made the long journey back to the field
in 2006 after missing the entire 2005 season. He gave the D-Rays a lift
by hitting .302 in 92 games with 57 RBI's. Baldelli could be poised for
a huge 2007 after hitting 9 HR's last September.
R####elmon Young(21): Another top D-Rays prospect, Young hit .317 in 30 games as a rookie in 2006.
DH-Johnny Gomes(26): Gomes hit only .216 in 2006 after hitting .282 in
2005. He has displayed some nice power with 41 homers in his career in
only 762 at-bats.
Overall lineup outlook(5 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters,
and 2 switch-hitters): The D-Rays were a distant last in the AL in runs
scored in 2006. Tampa could be poised for some huge offensive
improvement in 2007. Baldelli, Cantu, and Wiggington missed a combined
165 games last season. This trio was very productive when healthy in
2006. Also, Iwamura and Young will be significant new contributors in
this year's lineup. There is some nice pop in the order as seven of the
nine bats have the potential to hit 20+ HR's in 2007. While this young
group will likely run hot and cold at times this season, the Tampa
offense has gained some valuable experience in recent seasons. The
Devil Rays will score a lot more runs in 2007 as this crew will do some
surprising damage to some opposing AL pitching staffs this season.
Starting rotation-The D-Rays have a shaky starting staff in 2007.
LHP-Scott Kazmir(23): The D-Rays made one of the great deals in recent
memory when they picked up Kazmir from the Mets in 2004. Kazmir has
been the lone bright spot in the Tampa rotation in the last two years
with E.R.A's of 3.77 and 3.24. A solid number one for Tampa to build
around in the years to come.
RHP-James Shields(25): As a rookie in 2006, Shields was solid at home
(3.94 E.R.A.) but suspect on the road (5.65 E.R.A.). He should make
some progress in 2007 as Shields did record 104 strikeouts in 125.2
innings of work last year.
LHP-Casey Fossum(29): Control problems have kept Fossum from
progressing as a big league starter. He only averaged 5.1 innings per
start in 2006. With a 5.20 career E.R.A., Fossum isn't a lock to stay
in this rotation throughout the 2007 season.
RHP-Jae Seo(29): Seo seemed like a pitcher on the rise after posting a
2.59 E.R.A. with the Mets in 2005 in 14 starts. 2006 was a major
reversal for him as he struggled to a 5.33 E.R.A. with the Dodgers and
D-Rays. If he can pitch closer to his 2005 form this season, this staff
could make some strides.
RHP-Tim Corcoran(28): Corcoran posted a 4.41 E.R.A. in 16 starts for
Tampa last season. He will need to harness his control in 2007 after
issuing 48 walks in just 90.2 innings of work in 2006.
Overall rotation outlook: While the Tampa organization has been able to
assemble some quality hitting prospects, the Devil Rays continue to
suffer in the arms department. Beyond Kazmir, this rotation is razor
thin. While pitchers like Shields and Seo have the potential to pitch
better this season, these hurlers aren't likely to be able to provide
much help to Kazmir in this rotation. The starting problems eventually
lead to a worn down bullpen as well. The one positive for the pitching
lies in the i
